1. New Orleans Saints
2011 Record: 13-3, NFC South Champs
Head Coach: Joe Vitt (interim, 1st season New Orleans, suspended first six games of 2012, 4-7 career)
Key Additions: G Ben Grubbs, DT Brodrick Bunkley, OLB David Hawthorne, OLB Chris Chamberlain, ILB Curtis Lofton
Key Losses: Head Coach Sean Payton, WR Robert Meachem, G Carl Nicks, NT Shaun Rogers, NT Aubrayo Franklin, CB Tracy Porter
2012 Outlook: The Saints were basically two different teams in 2011. At
home, they were unbeatable and it was impossible to slow their offense down. On
the road, the offense didn’t click as much and the Saints mediocre defense
would get exposed. Had the Saints had homefield
throughout the playoffs they probably could have won another Super Bowl. But
instead they finished third behind the Packers and 49ers, and then were unable
to win in San Francisco in the playoffs. Then all hell broke loose in the
offseason with the revealing of the Saints bounty system on defense. Now they
must try to maneuver through the year without Sean Payton, and they will even
be without their interim coach Joe Vitt for the first six games. Some good news
for the Saints was the re-signing of Drew Brees to a long-term contract. Brees
was magnificent last season and his knowledge of the offense will have to be
what carries the team without Payton. The Saints have many options at running
back with Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. Sproles was fantastic
for New Orleans last year, leading the team in rushing, but also serving as one
of their better, most electrifying pass catchers. They will hope for more out
of Ingram this season, as he struggled through injuries last year. The Saints
passing game was best in the league and returns all of their weapons, save for
WR Robert Meachem. The Saints re-signed Marques Colston, who had a strong year
despite once again having to sit out a few games due to being hurt. The real
breakout star was TE Jimmy Graham, who would have had the single greatest
season of a tight end in history, had it not been for the ridiculous year Rob
Gronkowski had. Lance Moore and Devery
Henderson figure to continue to benefit from the sheer amount of weapons the
Saints have. The Saints lost their best
offensive lineman to free agency, Carl Nicks. They replaced him with Ben
Grubbs, and the rest of the line remains intact. They played well last season,
only allowing 24 sacks and they know how much the success of the team hinges on
the health of Brees. The defense has also been affected by the bounty scandal,
as Will Smith was suspended for 4 games, and pending an appeal LB Joe Vilma is
suspended for the season. This was already a unit that had its problems last
season. They didn’t effectively rush the quarterback and their corners and
safeties were torched consistently. The Saints were most successful when
forcing turnovers but haven’t been able to get back to the rate they had when
they won the Super Bowl. They hope that free agent addition Broderick Bunkley
can control the line of scrimmage, but he can only do so much for a team that
mostly struggled stopping the pass. They also hope the signing of Curtis Lofton
from the rival Falcons will offset Vilma’s likely absence. The Saints have a
battle at kicker between dirt old, John Carney and Garrett Hartley. Hartley
missed last season with an injury but most likely should win his job back.
Thomas Morstead, when given the chance, was an effective punter. I can’t see
the Saints not feeling the effects of the bounty scandal this season. They
still have a ton of talent, but with upheaval as far as the coaches and just
the general distractions that come with it, their win total will suffer a bit.
I still think they are far enough ahead of the rest of the division to remain
as the class of the NFC South.
Prediction: 10-6
2. Carolina Panthers
2011 Record: 6-10, 3rd place NFC South
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (2nd season Carolina, 6-10 career)
Key Additions: RB Mike Tolbert, OT/G Bruce Campbell, LB Luke Kuechly
Key Losses: RB Mike Goodson, WR Legedu Naanee, TE Jeremy Shockey, ILB Dan Connor
2012 Outlook: Cam Newton had one of the greatest seasons ever for a rookie
quarterback. The change he brought to the Carolina Panthers offense is almost
indescribable. They went from a unit that couldn’t get out of their own way in
2010, to one of the best in the league in 2011, all because of Newton. The scary thing for the rest of the league is
that Newton should only get better. The Panthers might have the best rushing
attack in the league. Newton is a threat to run every single time, and their
backfield is stacked with DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and now the
addition of Mike Tolbert. You would
think with the passing numbers Newton put up last season that their receivers
must be pretty good, but you would be wrong. Steve Smith is very good, and
showed he still has plenty left in the tank when he has a competent quarterback
throwing him the ball. Besides him though, there isn’t much there. Brandon
LeFell will be counted on to try to give Smith some help against defenses,
while TE Greg Olsen will hope in his second year in Carolina he can figure out
his role in the passing game. The Panthers offensive line is okay, but they are
definitely helped by Newton’s ability to avoid pressure. For the Panthers to
reach the playoffs, it is their defense that must improve. They were near the
bottom in the league against both the run and the pass. They bolstered their
linebacking corps by drafting Luke Kuelchy out of Boston College. It will also
help to have Pro Bowl LB Jon Beason back after he missed all of last season
with an injury. The secondary remains mostly the same, so the Panthers just
have to hope that another year of experience will help those players improve. Special
teams were another area of concern, where kicker Olindo Mare struggled pretty
badly, but he returns in 2012. Either Brad Nortman or Nick Harris will take
over the punter role as Jason Baker was not retained after a poor 2011. This
could be the Panthers chance to make some noise with the issues the Saints have
and the Falcons seeming like they might be on a bit of a downturn. Their success
hinges on Newton continuing his progress and the defense improving. I think
both of those things will happen enough to get the Panthers back to a winning
season.
Prediction: 9-7
3. Atlanta Falcons
2011 Record: 10-6, 2nd place NFC South
Head Coach: Mike Smith (5th season Atlanta, 43-24 career)
Key Addition: CB Asante Samuel
Key Losses: OLB Mike Peterson, SS James Sanders
2012 Outlook: For the longest time the Falcons could never string together
back to back winning seasons. They did that in 2009. Then it became, well they
can never string together back to back playoff seasons, but then they accomplished
that last season. The new hurdle is that they can’t win in the playoffs. Their
last two playoff losses were disasters, the embarrassment at home to Green Bay
in 2010, and nearly being shut out by the Giants last year. Sure those losses
both came to eventual Super Bowl champions, but there are already whispers out
there that Mike Smith and Matt Ryan can’t win the big game. Ryan had his best
passing season last year and continues to be a solid player. It remains to be
seen if he can take that next step and become elite. The running game took a
bit of a dip last year as it relied far too much on Michael Turner, especially
in a league that favors having a two to three man backfield these days. The
Falcons hope that second year player Jacquizz Rodgers can begin to make an
impact. The receiving corps is strong with Roddy White and Julio Jones. White
started showing signs of being on the downswing so the pressure will be on
Jones to not only eventually replace White but make the haul of picks the
Falcons gave up for Jones worth it. TE Tony Gonzalez is back for perhaps his
final season and still remains one of the better tight ends in the league. The
Falcons offensive line gave up just 26 sacks last year, which is especially
good because Ryan isn’t that mobile of a quarterback. The Falcons defense
struggled against the pass so they went out and acquired CB Asante Samuel from
the Eagles. Asante is still fantastic at ball hawking and getting
interceptions, and teamed up with Brent Grimes gives the Falcons a strong
cornerback tandem. The Falcons are hoping that Ray Edwards and John Abraham
prove more of a lethal pass rushing combo than they were in 2011. Abraham had a
pretty good season but Edwards was a bust last year. Falcons kicker Matt Bryant
is one of the better, most consistent kickers in the league. The punting game
is not good or consistent though and second year man Matt Bosher will have to
improve. Schedules are unpredictable but based on last year’s results Atlanta
would have one of the toughest in the league. A tough schedule, plus some of
their better weapons on both offense and defense getting up there in age, will
contribute to the Falcons having their first non-winning season in the
Smith/Ryan era.
Prediction: 8-8
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2011 Record: 4-12, last place NFC South
Head Coach: Greg Schiano (1st season Tampa Bay, 0-0 career)
Key Additions: WR Vincent Jackson, TE Dallas Clark, G Carl Nicks, RB Doug Martin, DT Amobi Okoye, CB Eric Wright, S Mark Barron
Key Losses: RB Earnest Graham, TE Kellen Winslow, S Corey Lynch, KR Michael Spurlock
2012 Outlook: The Buccaneers were thought to be a team on the rise after
just missing out on the playoffs in 2010. They got off to a nice 4-2 start in
2011, and then bottom fell out. The Bucs lost their last ten games, and only
two of those ten were by less than double digits, as the team apparently quit
on their coach, Raheem Morris. The notoriously cheap Glazers finally opened up
their pockets and brought in free agents WR Vincent Jackson and G Carl Nicks,
and wooed Greg Schiano away from Rutgers and gave him his first NFL job. The
offense fell apart with QB Josh Freeman, WR Mike Williams, and RB LaGarrette
Blount all seeing their numbers trail off after strong 2010 seasons. The team
is hopeful that Vincent Jackson can help Freeman get back to form, and also
take some pressure off Williams, who showed he wasn’t ready to be a number one
receiver. They also drafted RB Doug Martin to compete with Blount and hopefully
light a fire under him. At tight end the Bucs replaced Kellen Winslow with
Dallas Clark, who is trying to fight off claims that he is past his prime. The
Buccaneers offensive line wasn’t all that bad last season and adding one of the
better ones in the game, from a rival no less, in Carl Nicks was a great move.
The Bucs defense was awful in every imaginable way. They couldn’t rush the
passer effectively, they were terrible against the run, and mostly terrible
covering the pass. They brought in DT Amobi Okoye who hasn’t lived up to
expectations since the Texans drafted a few years back, and drafted Mark Barron
from Alabama. They are hoping that DT Gerald McCoy can stay healthy the entire
season as he showed flashes when he was on the field last season. Second year player Adrian Clayborn also
showed some promise to the Bucs might have the pieces there to eventually field
a top defense. The kicking and punting units are pretty strong with kicker Connor
Barth and punter Michael Koenen. They did loss Morgan Spurlock who had some
nice plays in the return game the last few seasons. I think the Bucs could
eventually head in the right direction, and they have some nice pieces, but the
stench of last season is too hard to ignore. They will be much more competitive
under Schiano, but the results being seen in wins is a couple years away.
Prediction: 4-12
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