1. Tennessee Titans
2011 Record: 9-7, 2nd place AFC South
Head Coach: Mike Munchak (2nd season Tennessee, 9-7 career)
Key Additions: WR Kendall Wright, G Steve Hutchinson, DE Kamerion Wimbley
Key Losses: TE Daniel Graham, G Jake Scott, CB Cortland Finnegan
2012 Outlook: The Titans were an up and down team in 2011 and because of
that finished 9-7, just missing out on the playoffs. Veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck
played pretty well for the Titans but it is looking more and more like his time
has passed, and that second year man Jake Locker will be taking the reins.
Locker didn’t see much action last season but when he did play he looked more
than capable of leading the Titans. One of the most shocking stats from 2011 is
the Titans finished 31st in the league in rushing and Chris Johnson
played most of the season. Johnson did seem affected by his holdout, so the
Titans are hopeful that a full training camp and preseason can get him back on
track. Johnson is only 26 so he shouldn’t be breaking down yet or anything. The
Titans have some weapons at their disposal in the receiving corps, although the
status of their #1 receiver Kenny Britt is up in the air. Britt missed most of
last year with a torn ACL, and then got arrested again over the summer, and
could be facing a suspension. In Britt’s absence Nate Washington had a
fantastic season and made the Titans look smart for signing him in free agency
a few years ago. The Titans used their first round draft pick on Kendall
Wright. Wright will get some opportunities but rookie wide receivers tend to
not make too big of an impact in their first season. The Titans added Steve Hutchinson to their
offensive line, which already did a pretty good job protecting their
quarterbacks last season. The Titans are hoping Hutchinson can improve their
run blocking. The Titans hope that the strong play tight end Jared Cook showed
at the end of last season is a harbinger of things to come. For the Titans to
become a playoff team, they will have to get improved play from their defense.
The biggest weakness of the defense was their inability to pressure the
quarterback, so the Titans signed DE Kamerion Wimbley to rectify those
problems. They also will need improved play on the defensive line, as they were
one of the worst units against the run in 2011. They lost longtime CB Cortland
Finnegan but believe that Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner can pick up the
slack. Kicker Rob Bironas continues to be one of the better kickers in the league,
especially from long range. Punter Brett Kern struggled last season, which put
pressure on the Titans defense. I liked what I saw out of Locker last season
and think his time is now. The Titans are well coached by Mike Munchak and will
be competitive. I think with the Texans faltering a bit, the Titans will
surprise many and end up winning the AFC South.
Prediction: 9-7
2. Houston Texans
2011 Record: 10-6, AFC South champs
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (7th season Houston, 48-50 career)
Key Additions: QB John Beck, RB Justin Forsett, DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus, ILB Bradie James
Key Losses: QB Matt Leinart, WR/KR Jacoby Jones, TE Joel Dreesen, RT Eric Winston, G Kasey Studdard, G Mike Brisiel, DE Mario Williams, ILB DeMeco Ryans, K Neil Rackers
2012 Outlook: The Houston Texans finally had a winning season and with
that also earned a division title and a playoff win. Their patience with Coach
Gary Kubiak seemed to pay off. However, the problem for Kubiak now is that the
Texans have huge expectations entering 2012, probably too high for a team that
lost a lot of key pieces in the off-season. What was most amazing about the
Texans 2011 was the amount of injuries they overcame. They lost DE Mario
Williams, and the defense still had an incredible turnaround under coordinator
Wade Phillips. They saw both Matt Schaub and then his backup Matt Leinart go
down with injuries, and won a playoff game with third string rookie T.J. Yates
starting for them. Their best wide receiver Andre Johnson played just seven
games last year. Texans fans are hoping the injury Gods had their fun with the
team in 2011 and they will be much healthier in 2012. One reason they were able
to overcome all the injuries at quarterback was the amazing play of RB Arian
Foster. Foster has come from obscurity two years ago to becoming one of the
best running backs in the game. He also has a more than capable backup in Ben
Tate, who nearly rushed for 1,000 yards last season. The Texans are thin at wide receiver after
Johnson, so Johnson staying healthy this year will be something to watch. The
Texans also saw upheaval on the offensive line, as right tackle Eric Winston
and guard Mike Brisiel left via free agency. Tight end Owen Daniels will once
again be a favorite target of Schaub and Daniels will need to be more
consistent and healthy to take pressure off the Texans other less than stellar
receivers. The Texans defense went from pretty much the worst in the NFL in
2010, to one of the best in 2011, and did most of that work without Mario
Williams. Because of that, the team allowed Williams to walk via free agency.
Also, LB DeMeco Ryans was shipped off to Philadelphia, although the Texans are
pretty stacked at linebacker and should be ok. J.J. Watt was tremendous in his
rookie season and made the play that shifted the playoff game against
Cincinnati when he intercepted Andy Dalton and scored. The Texans pass defense
was also a strong unit in 2011 and didn’t see any major changes so should be
strong once again. Special teams will be an area to watch as Houston let Neil
Rackers leave, and are counting on rookie Randy Bullock to take over. They will
have a battle at the punter position between Donnie Jones and Brett Hartmann. There is a lot of Super Bowl talk surrounding
the Texans but I just don’t see it. The schedule isn’t all that challenging but
I feel like the team had a lot of turnover from last year, and that can’t be
ignored.
Prediction: 9-7
3. Indianapolis Colts
2011 Record: 2-14, last place AFC South
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano (1st season Indianapolis, 0-0 career)
Key Additions: QB Andrew Luck, RB Mewelde Moore, WR Donnie Avery, OT Winston Justice, DE/DT Cory Redding, SS Tom Zbikowski
Key Losses: QB Peyton Manning, QB Dan Orlovsky, RB Joseph Addai, WR Pierre Garcon, TE Dallas Clark, TE Jacob Tamme, G Ryan Diem, C Jeff Saturday, DE Tyler Brayton, DT Eric Foster, ILB Gary Brackett, S Melvin Bullitt
2012 Outlook: When it turned out that Peyton Manning’s neck injuries were
much more serious than first believed, there were many, including myself that
felt all the other talented players on the Colts would be enough to keep them
competitive. Instead, it turned out that Manning made just about everyone
around him look much better than they actually were. The result, a 2-14 season,
and a complete housecleaning of most of the veterans from the roster and robot
head coach Jim Caldwell. The new coach is former Steelers defensive coordinator
Chuck Pagano, and the new quarterback is number one draft pick, the can’t miss
prospect Andrew Luck. Hype around Luck was already considerable, but grew even
more after his impressive preseason performance last weekend against the Rams. The
question is, how much help will Luck have on offense this year? Joseph Addai is
gone, now the job is Donald Brown’s, who hasn’t always shown he can be trusted
to do the other things a running back needs to do, such as block. They also
added RB Mewelde Moore to compete with Brown. WR Reggie Wayne was expected to
be part of the housecleaning but he re-signed. He is starting to look a little
long in the tooth, but I think it was smart to bring him back and give Luck a
reliable option to throw to. Austin Collie is now the number two receiver,
although he might be one or two more concussions away from having to retire. Unfortunately
for Luck and the Colts, the offensive line is a complete question mark and
could get Luck killed. Eagles fans can attest when Winston Justice might be
your best offensive lineman, you have some real problems. At tight end the
Colts drafted Luck’s teammate out of Stanford Coby Fleener and are hopeful that
their chemistry can help both players in their adjustments to the NFL.
Defensively, the Colts said goodbye to longtime players Gary Brackett and Melvin Bullitt. Returning are
the bookends of their defensive line, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Both
players aren’t what they used to be but still could have a couple good seasons
left in them. Corey Redding was brought over from Baltimore to try to help a
defensive line that was terrible against the run last year. Former Notre Dame
star Tom Zbikowski was added and should start at safety. Future Hall of Famer
Adam Vinatieri is back as the kicker and party animal Pat McAfee will once
again handle punting duties. I have the Colts making a major turnaround with 7
wins this year. A lot of that is because I believe in Luck and think he can
have the kind of instant impact Cam Newton had. It also helps that the schedule
is pretty easy and there are many wins to be had.
Prediction: 7-9
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2011 Record: 5-11, 3rd place AFC South
Head Coach: Mike Mularkey (1st season Jacksonville, 14-18 career)
Key Additions: QB Chad Henne, WR Justin Blackmon, WR Laurent Robinson, WR Lee Evans, CB Aaron Ross
Key Losses: DE Matt Roth, DE Aaron Kampman
2012 Outlook: The Jaguars were once again under the radar last year and
suffered through another irrelevant season. Their rookie quarterback, Blaine
Gabbert looked terrible and the only saving grace on the offense was RB Maurice
Jones-Drew. Knowing that he was such a vital part of the offense, Jones-Drew is
holding out to get a new contract and without him the Jaguars will be even
worse offensively. Behind Jones-Drew are a bunch of guys I’ve never heard of so
at some point you have to think the Jaguars will cave. Jack Del Rio finally
lost his job due to Jacksonville’s struggles last season, so Mike Mularkery receives
a second chance as an NFL coach. The Jaguars aren’t sure what they have in
Gabbert so they brought in former Dolphins QB Chad Henne as his backup. Henne
would show flashes in Miami but was never consistent and hasn’t proven he can
lead a team to wins. The Jaguars knew they didn’t help Gabbert’s cause last
year by giving him almost no weapons at wide receiver. To solve that, they
signed Laurent Robinson from Dallas. Robinson had a nice season but was also
the Cowboys number three receiver and a had a good quarterback in Tony Romo.
The Jaguars drafted stud WR out of Oklahoma State Justin Blackmon. Now they
have to wonder about Blackmon’s off the field behavior as he was busted for DUI
over the summer. Prior to last season they gave TE Marcedes Lewis a ton of
money and then he promptly looked terrible in 2011 and didn’t even score a
touchdown. Another problem for Gabbert was that he doesn’t have a good offensive
line. The Jaguars didn’t make any changes to it in the off-season so they are
just counting on experience helping the group. One bright spot for Jacksonville
is their defense, which was in the top ten against both the rush and pass. They
don’t have any real big names or guys you’ve heard outside of maybe LB Paul
Posluszny but they play well together as a unit. Kicker Josh Scobee remains
awesome and might be the best kicker in the NFL. Jacksonville’s punting was so
bad last season that they spent a third round pick on their new punter Bryan
Anger. This will be another season in Jacksonville that will largely go
unnoticed by the general public and even the 5 fans they have in Jacksonville.
It will also be another season with double digits in losses.
Prediction: 4-12
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