It is a bittersweet time for football fans. On one hand we are excited about the playoffs and watching them unfold over the next month. But on the other, it means there are just 11 games left this season, before football goes into hibernation for seven months. As fans we will cross that bridge when we come to it, but for now lets enjoy the ride. The Wild Card round is mixed between some familiar faces and some newcomers looking to crash the party. The Bengals and Texans face off for the right to be huge underdogs in the Divisional round, while the Lions are in the playoffs for the first time since 1999 and get the unenviable task of trying to win at New Orleans. The Giants are back in the playoffs after a two year absence, hosting the Falcons and Matt Ryan, who will be trying to earn his first playoff victory. In the finale, Tim Tebow tries to recapture the magic of a month ago and somehow slay the monster that is the Steelers defense.AFC Wild Card: Cincinnati (9-7) at Houston (10-6), Houston favored by 3
Both teams come limping into the playoffs. The Bengals went just 3-5 in the second half of the season and only beat one team with a winning record this season. Their rookie quarterback, the Red Rocket, Andy Dalton, has been dealing with flu like symptoms this week and it is unclear how well he will be feeling come game time. The Texans have lost three in a row, and rookie quarterback T.J. Yates hasn't thrown a touchdown in three weeks. Despite all that, Houston will still be rocking as they host the franchise's first ever playoff game. The Bengals surpassed everyone's expectations and it was largely on the backs of Dalton and fellow rookie WR A.J. Green. The Bengals have a rushing attack with Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott but it is pretty plodding and they tend to get most of their yards just through sheer volume of attempts. Defensively, the Bengals have been strong all season, ranking in the top 10 in both rushing and passing yards allowed. The Texans have become a power running team, with a terrific two headed monster in Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Tate was just 58 yards short of giving the Texans two 1,000 yard rushers. With the Texans down their third string quarterback and star WR Andre Johnson hurting for most of the season, the success of Foster and Tate is what carried Houston to the playoffs. Another major factor was the rapid improvement of their defense. Despite not having Mario Williams for most of the year, The Texans finished third in passing yards allowed per game, and fourth in rushing yards allowed. This is a rematch from a month ago, when Houston came from 19-3 behind in Cincinnati to win 20-19 on a last second touchdown. I think this game will be another close, defensive dominated game. I think home field will be the difference, and the crowd will give the Texans the lift they need to earn their first playoff win in franchise history. A loss will mean Cincinnati still hasn't won a playoff game since 1991, but with Dalton and Green, the future is bright.
Prediction: Houston 18, Cincinnati 14
NFC Wild Card: Detroit (10-6) at New Orleans (13-3), New Orleans favored by 11
There is little doubt that this will be the highest scoring game of Wild Card weekend. The Lions get a second shot at the Saints, and will try to avenge their Week 13, 31-17 loss. The Lions had more yardage than the Saints in that game but were undone by a multitude of stupid penalties. They were also without Ndamukong Suh, who was suspended. He hasn't received much attention but Matthew Stafford had an amazing year. Finally healthy for a full season Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards and had 41 TDs. He did have 16 INTs which he needs to cut down on, but still, awesome year, and in any other season an MVP type of year. He can expect to have a big game against New Orleans, who was 30th in the league against the pass. Some say that Stafford's numbers are inflated because he can throw the ball up in the air and no matter what Calvin Johnson will go get it. Stafford's second favorite target is TE Brandon Pettigrew who the quietest 83 catches I think I have ever heard of. The Lions pass the ball so much because they do it well and also because their running game is pretty non-existent. Their leading rusher this season was Jahvid Best with 390 yards and he didn't even play in the last in the last 10 games. Kevin Smith eventually took over late in the year and aside from a big game against Carolina has done very little. The Lions defense has really struggled of late, highlighted by them getting torched by Packers backup QB Matt Flynn last week. What can be said about the Saints offense? Basically, they are filled with record breakers and at home impossible to stop. Drew Brees shattered Dan Marino's passing yards record, TE Jimmy Graham was unstoppable, and RB Darren Sproles became the do everything player for the Saints. The Saints lowest point output at home this year was 27 against believe it or not, Tampa Bay. The Saints are now a team that can run the ball, they finished sixth in rushing and can turn to Sproles, Pierre Thomas or Chris Ivory and expect production out of all of them. Defensively, the Saints are strong against the run but as mentioned above struggle against the pass. They also ranked very low in takeaways, which was a staple of their 2010 Super Bowl team. People keep saying the Lions can win this but I think that is just people hoping this is a close game. The only way the Saints lose is if Brees throws 2 picks or more. The Lions don't have the running game needed to play ball control and keep the ball out of Brees hands. As a 49ers fan, I would love for the Lions to win so the Niners can avoid New Orleans, but its not happening.
Prediction: New Orleans 37, Detroit 23
NFC Wild Card: Atlanta (10-6) at New York Giants (9-7), New York Giants favored by 3
I love the Falcons in this game. The Giants backed into the playoffs, with wins over the Jets and Cowboys, mostly because those teams were so bad and couldn't take advantage of all the mistakes the Giants tried to hand them. Falcons QB Matt Ryan has been on fire his last seven games, throwing 15 TDs to just 2 INTs. He hasn't thrown a pick in a month and must be salivating to face a Giants defense that was 29th against the pass. RB Michael Turner had another big season, rushing for 1,340 yards and 11 TDs. WR Roddy White started slowly but along with Ryan caught fire towards the end of the year and finished with 100 catches. The man they gave the farm up for, rookie WR Julio Jones had a strong rookie year with 54 catches and 8 TDs. You also can't forget about the ageless one, TE Tony Gonzalez who continues to play at a high level. The Falcons are a pretty good defensive team especially against run, finishing sixth on the season. They probably won't be tested much by the Giants running game, which finished dead last this season. Ahmad Bradshaw missed some time with injuries and Brandon Jacobs stopped being good about three years ago. The Giants offense was carried by Eli Manning and dominated by WR Victor Cruz, who came out of nowhere to be the teams leading receiver. Opposite him is Hakeem Nicks, who had a strong season but was also wildly inconsistent at times. Defensively, the Giants have been pretty terrible but still have a very talented defensive front with Justin Tuck, Osi Umeniyora, and emerging stud Jason Pierre-Paul. I really like the Falcons because I think they are clearly a better team than the Giants and I also think that despite his strong showing last week, Manning has been largely struggling as of late. If he isn't playing his best, the Giants offense becomes very stagnant and I think that is too much of a burden for Eli. Plus, the Giants home field advantage isn't much because as soon as they struggle the crowd will turn on them. Falcons win and set themselves up for a Divisional playoff rematch with the Packers.
Prediction: Atlanta 24, New York Giants 17
AFC Wild Card: Pittsburgh (12-4) at Denver (8-8), Pittsburgh favored by 8 1/2
It is clear from the line that Vegas has fallen out of love with Tim Tebow and they are hoping that a lot of people take Denver to cover the spread. Maybe I am a sucker but I still believe Tebow and the Broncos can keep this game competitive. The Tebow bandwagon is empty after the Broncos closed the season with three straight losses but thanks to the awfulness of the AFC West they were still able to win the division. It is no secret that if the Broncos can't run the ball, either with Tebow or Willis McGahee they have no shot to win. Their leading receiver this year was Eric Decker and he had just 44 catches. McGahee appeared reborn in Denver and rushed for 1,199 yards. Even with him rushing for 145 yards last weekend against Kansas City the Broncos still only managed 3 points. Denver's defense was receiving a lot of the credit when they were winning and they certainly have played well after struggling to start the season. They were unable to slow down the Patriots offense but not many teams have been able to do that anyway. The Bills scored points but most of those were because of turnovers by Tebow and last week they held the Chiefs to a touchdown. The Steelers offense has been having a real hard time scoring lately, especially since Ben Roethlisberger sprained his ankle. Now they are without their leading rusher Rashard Mendenhall for the playoffs, as he tore his ACL last week against Cleveland. If Roethlisberger is mobile enough and can find time to throw he has two game breaking weapons in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. The Steelers defense was declared dead by Warren Sapp after week 1 but ended up finishing first against the pass and eighth against the run. They will be without S Ryan Clark, who can't play in Denver, and they will miss him, but Tebow isn't the guy that can exploit that. I expect this game to go like most Denver games, the defense plays well enough to let them hang around, but I don't think Tebow can make enough plays for Denver to pull off the upset.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 20, Denver 13
Last Week Straight Up: 10-6
Overall Straight Up: 161-95
Last Week Against the Spread: 4-11-1 (ouch)
Overall Against the Spread: 127-122-7
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