The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships

I thought last week was stressful to watch but I have a feeling the NFC Championship game this Sunday against the Giants will be even worse for me as a fan of the 49ers. The up and down thrill ride that the game against the Saints was is something I don't think I have ever experienced in my life. However, if a game were to approach that level, it would have to be when the Giants and 49ers met in 2003. The Giants raced out to a 38-14 lead at Candlestick, but then Jeff Garcia led the 49ers back to a 39-38 victory. Yeah, there maybe should have been a pass interference called on the 49ers the last play of the game but there wasn't, so whatevs. There is another game before this, the AFC Championship between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens. This was the game I expected to see before the playoffs began and even then I was struggling in my head about who I would pick to win the game. I still am not quite sure about my pick but its Friday and I have a deadline that my tens of readers expect me to stick to so I'm forging ahead.

AFC Championship: Baltimore (13-4) at New England (14-3), New England favored by 7

The Patriots destroyed Denver last weekend in not much of a surprise, while the Ravens did what they do best, win ugly, when they defeated the Texans. These teams are equally matched because each has a major advantage on one side of the ball. The Patriots are far and away a better offensive team than Baltimore, while the Ravens defense is clearly superior to the Patriots defense. Most of the talk for this game has centered around Ravens QB Joe Flacco and his less than stellar performances. It seems that finally people are catching on to the fact that Flacco is mediocre at best. Flacco seems to bristle at the fact that people overlook him and give all the credit to the defense, but he has a great chance to shut those critics up this weekend. The Patriots defense is laughably bad, and just because they were able to shut down Denver, I don't think they are all of the sudden any good. The Ravens offense stalled against the Texans because they couldn't get Ray Rice going. When these two teams met in the playoffs two years ago Rice memorably opened the game with a huge touchdown run and the Ravens never looked back. Rice has to be fed the ball on a consistent basis and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has to show the patience to stick with the running game. If Rice can get going, then Flacco has a chance to hit Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith with some deep balls. Defensively, the Ravens have been very good this season but have struggled to get pressure on the quarterback in recent weeks. It is imperative they do that this weekend because Tom Brady is the best in the game and will completely burn you if he is allowed to be a statue in the pocket. Haloti Ngata, and the rest of the defensive front will need to make their presence felt. The linebacking corps has to be ready to try to slow down TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The biggest difference between the game two years ago and this one is that the Patriots didn't have those two weapons back then. Hernandez was featured as a running back last week, while Gronkowski continued to look unstoppable in coverage. If the Ravens can't limit their touches, they have no shot at winning.

Fortunately for the Ravens, their defense shouldn't have to worry too much about the Patriots running game. The Patriots are running back by committee and while their backs can gash bad teams, I don't expect them to be much of a factor against Baltimore. The Ravens did struggle against Arian Foster last weekend, but BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley, and Danny Woodhead combined aren't as good as Foster. The difference in this game might just come down to special teams. According to the stat geeks at Football Outsiders the Patriots were 5th in special teams rankings during the season, while the Ravens were a dreadful 30th. Both teams have reliable field goal kickers that can make pressure kicks. I have had a hell of a time picking this game. The line is way too high to me so I have no doubt the Ravens will cover, but picking them to win has been tough. I worry about the Ravens ability to slow Gronkowski and Hernandez but I keep coming back to how putrid the Patriots defense is. Plus, the Patriots haven't beaten a team with a winning record all season. The Ravens have been on the doorstep for years now and I think this is finally when they push through and reach the Super Bowl.

Prediction: Baltimore 23, New England 20

NFC Championship: New York Giants (11-7) at San Francisco (14-3), San Francisco favored by 2 1/2

All year it seemed destined that if the 49ers made it to the NFC Championship they would have to find a way to win at Lambeau Field. Instead, the Giants blew the doors off of the Packers and now the 49ers get to host their first NFC Championship since 1997. The Giants come in red hot, having won four games in a row. They have become a completely different team the last month as both their running game and defenses have emerged as forces. The public loves the Giants and feels we are seeing deja vu from when they made their run from out of nowhere in 2008. In my mind we are seeing deja vu, but that deja vu is from last week. The Saints came into San Francisco firing on all cylinders, having won nine in a row. The public loved them to beat the 49ers, because everyone outside of 49ers fans saw San Francisco as a flukey team from a bad division. The public saw the real side of the 49ers last week, a resilient group that wins because they play well in all phases. The defense was lit up more than I would have expected but they still forced five turnovers, which played a huge role in the win. Most surprisingly, Alex Smith was able to lead the 49ers down the field in crunch time. However, that shouldn't have been as much as a surprise as it was, because it was on the back of Smith that the Niners defeated the Giants in their first meeting this season. The Giants knocked Frank Gore out of the game early and without him the 49ers were unable to run the ball. Smith still was able to be productive passing the ball, including hitting Vernon Davis for a game changing touchdown. People will rightly say that clearly Eli Manning is a better quarterback but at least this season Smith seems much better at avoiding mistakes. The 49ers have the best turnover differential in the league because Smith has avoided costly interceptions and mistakes. They also have the hardest hitting defense in the league, and a defense that I think can slow down a potent Giants offense. The Giants didn't have Ahmad Bradshaw in the first game, and to me he is a much greater threat than overrated Brandon Jacobs. Still, I am not too concerned because the 49ers have been stone walls against the run all season. The pressure will be on the 49ers corners to slow down Hakeem Nicks, who has been a beast in the playoffs, as well as Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham. A lot of help will come if the 49ers continue to create pressure like they have all season with Justin and Aldon Smith. The Giants don't have a big playmaker at TE like the Saints did, so that will make things easier for Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman, and Ahmad Brooks.

I wasn't thrilled with the Niners commitment to running the ball last weekend, as Gore only had 13 carries. He was struggling but I feel like that was because he was never allowed to get in a rhythm. Late in the game he was able to bust a big run and that is what he can do if the 49ers are patient with him. They don't want to get into a passing contest with New York, especially with how well the Giants front four is playing right now. It will be huge if the 49ers can be effective running the ball. I also want to see Michael Crabtree play much better. He did have a touchdown last week but had at least three drops and looked pretty bad out there. I believe this game will come down to turnovers and whoever wins that battle. The 49ers have been winning it all year and I expect them to this weekend. I really believe the 49ers time is now, and we are destined to see Harbowl II, this time for all the marbles.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, New York Giants 17

Last Week Straight Up: 3-1
Overall Straight Up: 166-98

Last Week Against the Spread: 1-3
Overall Against the Spread: 131-126-7