The Hail Mary - Week 7

So I finally have a Sunday where nothing is planned. That means I can watch football uninterrupted, and not have to catch up on the DVR all day. That is all well and good until you look at this week's schedule. There are some decent 1:00 games but beyond that the slate is pretty awful. No really good 4/4:15 games, and the Sunday night and Monday night games are both atrocious. Oh well, I still will have a day of relaxation and football watching, only stopping for the occasional bite to eat, oh and laundry, probably some laundry going on.

Week 7 - Sunday, October 23

Seattle (2-3) at Cleveland (2-3), Cleveland favored by 3

The Madden Curse has once again proven itself to be an unstoppable force. Sure, Peyton Hillis was probably a one hit wonder anyways but he stood no chance against the cover of Madden. Browns QB Colt McCoy has a nice touchdown to interception ratio but he is completing just 55% of his passes. The Seahawks aren't sure which quarterback will be starting for them, Tavaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst. They almost make Rex Grossman and John Beck look like a murderer's row. If Jackson is too injured, Whitehurst will start. It's really of no consequence, the Seahawks aren't any better or worse off depending on the quarterback. They will grind out this win on the back of RB Marshawn Lynch.

Prediction: Seattle 22, Cleveland 19

Atlanta (3-3) at Detroit (5-1), Detroit favored by 3 1/2

So I was feeling sorta happy for the Lions after their fast start. They have been a down and out franchise for basically forever so it was cool to see them doing well. I don't feel so happy for them now, after finding out what a whiny, a-hole Jim Schwartz is. He prefers a dead fish handshake as opposed to a manly handshake. Any manly handshake causes him to lose his mind. It was funny to me that he thought Jim Harbaugh was too exuberant when he acts like a jackass on the sidelines all of the time. Look in the mirror Jim, just look in the mirror. The Lions are a mess at running back right now, and as Frank Gore showed last week, their run defense can be penetrated. I'm not too high on the Falcons, but I think the Lions being one dimensional on offense will hurt them, and Michael Turner can have the type of game Gore did.

Prediction: Atlanta 27, Detroit 23

Houston (3-3) at Tennessee (3-2), Tennessee favored by 3

There is rumblings that Texans WR Andre Johnson might return for this game. I think it's just wishful thinking and more than likely he will return for the Texans next game. They could certainly use him, especially their fraudtastic QB Matt Schaub. The Titans are coming off their bye and can really take control of the AFC South with a victory. The Titans are hoping Matt Hasselebeck didn't lose the fountain of youth during the bye. Along those lines, they are hoping Chris Johnson rediscovered it.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Houston 17

Denver (1-4) at Miami (0-5), Miami favored by 2

That was a pitiful performance the Dolphins put out on Monday Night Football. Tony Sparano should be put out of his misery, as this team has quit on him. The intriguing subplot to this game is Tim Tebow making his first start of the season. John Elway and John Fox are so insistent that he not succeed they traded away his best receiver for a bag of poop. The Dolphins are a terrible home team, but I don't see them going 0-16. They have to find a win somewhere and this is as good a place as any. Who knows, motivated by playing his former team Brandon Marshall might decide to actually score a touchdown.

Prediction: Miami 14, Denver 13

San Diego (4-1) at New York Jets (3-3), San Diego favored by 2

In a weekend of underwhelming games, this is the best one. Their are some good storylines for this game. LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Cromartie face their former team, and Rex Ryan stated the obvious, that Norv Turner is a terrible head coach, and that didn't sit well with ole Norvell. The Chargers have done something different and won some early season games, but in doing so, they have looked like crap and are a very unconvincing 4-1. The Jets ended their three game losing streak against Miami, but looked pretty inept and Jets fans are all still panicking. Most people will go with the Chargers but I haven't liked what I have seen out of San Diego all season. The Jets are 3-0 at home this season and I think they will play their best game of the season on Sunday and pull off the mini-upset.

Prediction: New York Jets 21, San Diego 17

Chicago (3-3) "at" Tampa Bay (4-2) in London, Chicago favored by 1

The annual London game pits Chicago and Tampa Bay, former NFC Central rivals. Tampa recovered well from the beat down the 49ers gave them, and knocked off the Saints at home. The Bears got to feel good for a night by playing a team even more hapless than them, the Vikings. If Tampa really was the home team I would pick them but this being a neutral field, I think the Bears are actually the better team. The Bears struggles come when teams have capable pass rushers, and the Bucs aren't very good at getting to the quarterback. I think Jay Cutler has a good game and the Bears win.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Tampa Bay 20

Washington (3-2) at Carolina (1-5), Carlina favored by 2 1/2

The John Beck era begins for the Redskins. In last week's Hail Mary, I said this:

"Rex throwing mostly leads to bad things."

Damn, I'm smart. Grossman was terrible, and all season has lived up to his career reputation as a turnover machine, so Mike Shanahan had no choice but to make the quarterback change. The local media is apoplectic and saying if John Beck fails that maybe the Shanahan era should end. That point of view is so stupid and short sighted. Sure, Shanahan said he would stake his reputation on Grossman and Beck. Did he need to go that far? No, but what do you want him to say? He had to at least make the appearance that he thought he could win with them. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Shanahan knows that Beck and Grossman are nothing but journeyman. He has improved the talent of the Skins in many positions, but this year his hands were tied. Their wasn't a quarterback they could get in the draft that was a franchise type guy so rather than reach for one, he chose to bide his time this year. It is my belief that next year, be it in the draft or trade Shanahan will get a quality quarterback. The Skins have a great chance of winning 8 games, which would be an improvement over last year. Skins fans and the media blast Dan Snyder for never being patient, but then if Shanahan wins 8 games this year, they will talk about how he is failing. They need to look at the big picture, Shanahan is starting from scratch and it takes time to build a consistent winner. If by next season the Skins are missing the playoffs for a third straight year, then the fans would be right to question what is going on. However, I believe the team is showing improvement and things are going in the right direction.

Now as far as the game this weekend, I don't like the Skins chances. The Panthers have been competitive all season and seem due for a victory. If the Redskins were relatively healthy on the offensive line I would pick them, even with Beck making his first start. But with the line being a mess, and trying to get a new quarterback in their, it is too much upheaval. While I think the Skins defense can force Newton into some mistakes, I think he will make enough big plays to counteract those mistakes, and the Panthers finally break through with a win.

Prediction: Carolina 23, Washington 17

Kansas City (2-3) at Oakland (4-2), Oakland favored by 3 1/2

The Raiders made big news this week by essentially ending Jason Campbell's career as an NFL starter. Campebell went down last weekend with a broken collarbone and rather than rely on Kyle Boller to get them to the playoffs, the Raiders overspent to trade for Carson Palmer. If they were getting the Carson Palmer from 2006 I would have understood the trade but Palmer has been mediocre ever since that season. He did have 26 TDs last season but he also had 20 INTs and makes some truly awful throws, which leads to him throwing a lot of pick sixes to the defense. Despite having sat on his couch all season, it is likely that Palmer will get the start. I don't expect Palmer to do much but I think the Raiders will still win because of Darren McFadden. He has had success against the Chiefs before, and after having been quiet for the past two weeks, I think he is due for a breakout game.

Prediction: Oakland 18, Kansas City 15

Pittsburgh (4-2) at Arizona (1-4), Pittsburgh favored by 3 1/2

It is a rematch of Super Bowl XLIII although the Cardinals are far removed from the team that played in that game. Kevin Kolb has struggled and the locals are already turning on him. The Steelers are 4-2 but remain underwhelming. They may make the playoffs merely because they are facing a weak schedule. One good sign for Pittsburgh was Rashard Mendenhall breaking out with a big game last weekend. He had been quiet all season, and with Ben Roethlisberger struggling somewhat, they needed the running game to get going to take some pressure off of him.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 17

St. Louis (0-5) at Dallas (2-3), Dallas favored by 13

The Cowboys got a great defensive effort but the offense couldn't convert their red zone opportunities into touchdowns against the Patriots and it ended up costing them. Now they get to host the NFL whipping boy, the Rams. The line is a little too steep for me to expect an average team like the Cowboys to cover, but the result will never seriously be in doubt.

Prediction: Dallas 24, St. Louis 13

Green Bay (6-0) at Minnesota (1-5), Green Bay favored by 8

Christian Ponder makes his first career start for the Vikings. The Vikings looked completely listless against the Bears and I think Donovan McNabb stopped caring about winning two years ago. He keeps saying he has football left in him, which may be true but its beyond obvious that he has no good football left in him. The Metrodome used to be a house of horror for the Packers but I don't expect it to present much of a challenge for them this season. QB Aaron Rodgers will be as precise as always and the Packers defense will harrass Ponder into a rough game.

Prediction: Green Bay 28, Minnesota 13

Indianapolis (0-6) at New Orleans (4-2), New Orleans favored by 14

Before the season and before it was known Peyton Manning wouldn't be playing this looked like a great game. Now, it features a winless Colts team that will be hoping to not be embarrassed in the Superdome. The Saints suffered a surprising loss last weekend and saw their coach get injured and have to undergo surgery last week. If the Saints don't blow out the Colts at home, some questions may have to start being asked about how legit New Orleans is. I think Drew Brees is going to have a field day picking apart the Colts defense and they will roll to a win, while the Colts continue their march to drafting Manning's successor, Andrew Luck.

Prediction: New Orleans 38, Indianapolis 17

Monday, October 24

Baltimore (4-1) at Jacksonville (1-5), Baltimore favored by 7 1/2

Booooooooooooooooooooring! Ravens games are already boring, put them against an awful team and you have found yourself the cure for insomnia. Why exactly did the Jags get two home, Monday night games? Everyone knew they would be terrible. Jacksonville doesn't even care about the Jags, why the hell would the rest of the country.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Jacksonville 9

Last Week Straight Up: 12-1 (Stupid New Orleans kept me from being perfect) Overall Straight Up: 60-30

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-7
Overall Against the Spread: 46-42-2