The Hail Mary - Week 5

I feel like crap and probably shouldn't be at work, let alone doing the Hail Mary today. However, I owe it to you, my loyal, select readers, that live and die with my slightly above .500 picks. The games this weekend are mostly how I feel, shitty. However, in good news, the 49ers are 3-1 and technically play in the best game of the weekend, against the also 3-1 Buccaneers. I was hoping to finally have a Sunday where I did nothing all day but watch football. But alas, it looks like I may be roped into apple picking. Either way, I will do whatever it takes, turn my phone off, record all the games, make myself deaf, so that I can come home and watch football all day.

Week 5 - Sunday, October 9

Philadelphia (1-3) at Buffalo (3-1), Philadelphia favored by 2 1/2

Do or die game for the "don't call us the Dream Team anymore" Eagles. That loss to the Niners sure was embarrassing. Blowing a 20 point lead to a team that came into the game averaging 3 yards a play? Deplorable. I still have faith that the Eagles, my preseason Super Bowl pick, can live up to the hype. Remember, the Miami Heat took some time to gel. That noise you heard last weekend was people jumping off the Bills bandwagon after they blew a 14 point lead to the Bungles. It turns out Buffalo fell for the trap game, and here I thought they were actually legit after their win over the Patriots. The schedule is very rough for the Bills for the next month and I think people will have to settle for the Lions if they want a feel good story. The Eagles will be without Jason Peters on the offensive line and Trent Cole on the defensive line. Those are key losses but desperate teams with talent usually win when they have to. I think Vick plays amazing, shreds the Bills defense and carries Philly to a much needed victory.

Prediction: Philadelphia 30, Buffalo 24

Kansas City (1-3) at Indianapolis (0-4), Indianapolis favored by 2 1/2

Not sure who in the world wants to watch this game. I would take apple picking over this game no questions asked. Curtis Painter looked somewhat competent in the Monday Night game, and at least appears to have some chemistry with his targets, unlike Kerry Collins. The Chiefs managed to get their first win by somehow finding a team that was worse than them in the Minnesota Vikings. The Colts have to win sometime, right? No better time than at home against sorry Kansas City.

Prediction: Indianapolis 23, Kansas City 15

Arizona (1-3) at Minnesota (0-4), Minnesota favored by 2 1/2

Another dreadful game, although at least this one has some star power. The Cardinals find new and exciting ways to lose each week, while the Vikings also found a different way to lose as at least last week they didn't blow a gigantic lead. Baby steps I suppose. If the Vikings fall to 0-5 you have to think that would be the end of the Donovan McNabb era but who knows. Just run Adrian Peterson 35 times and win the freaking game Vikings.

Prediction: Minnesota 21, Arizona 20

Seattle (1-3) at New York Giants (3-1), New York Giants favored by 10

The Giants were left for dead prior to the season starting after all the injuries to their defense. They laid an egg in the opener against the Redskins but have since reeled off three straight victories and are starting to get some of those injured players back. The Seahawks are dreadful on the road and I expect Tavaris Jackson to have a few fumbles, throw a few picks, you know, be himself.

Prediction: New York Giants 28, Seattle 13

Tennessee (3-1) at Pittsburgh (2-2), Pittsburgh favored by 6

When will Vegas get with the program that the Steelers aren't that good. Their wins come against teams with a combined record of 1-7, and their defense has been shredded by both Ray Rice and Arian Foster. Hell, Joseph Addai was having success running on them. Chris Johnson finally went over 100 yards last weekend, and should have a big game this weekend. The Titans appear to be for real and Matt Hasselbeck is playing like a guy that isn't ready to turn the reigns over to Jake Locker anytime soon. The Steelers are banged up and I may have to end up admitting that Warren Sapp was right about them after they drop this game.

Prediction: Tennessee 19, Pittsburgh 17

New Orleans (3-1) at Carolina (1-3), New Orleans favored by 6

Cam Newton has made the Carolina Panthers appointment viewing. That is an amazing feat in and of itself. The Panthers have been competitive in every game and you can tell that they are just one of those teams that once they learn how to win those close games, will be competing for a playoff spot. Unfortunately, that seems more likely to happen in either 2012 or 2013. Their defense can't stop anyone and after a quiet week last game, I expect Drew Brees to put up some huge numbers against the Panthers.

Prediction: New Orleans 34, Carolina 30

Cincinnati (2-2) at Jacksonville (1-3), Jacksonville favored by 2 1/2

It's the battle of the teams with the dwindling or non-existent fan bases! The Bengals have had a pretty easy schedule and with the Steelers sucking may have a chance at competing in the AFC North. I guess this game is sort of intriguing because its a battle of rookie quarterbacks. The Bengals Andy Dalton versus the Jaguars Blaine Gabbert. Oh, who am I kidding, this game blows.

Prediction: Cincinnati 17, Jacksonville 14

Oakland (2-2) at Houston (3-1), Houston favored by 6

Still not quite ready to believe in the Texans. We will really see what they are made of as they will be missing Andre Johnson for a few weeks. Matt Schaub isn't nearly as good as everyone has been fooled into thinking because of Johnson, so the Texans have to hope that Arian Foster is ready to stay healthy. He was fantastic last weekend, and I think he carries the Texans to another victory this weekend. This could be a good old fashioned NFL game where running the ball wins as Foster battles the Raiders Darren McFadden.

Prediction: Houston 24, Oakland 21

Tampa Bay (3-1) at San Francisco (3-1), San Francisco favored by 2 1/2

I am becoming cautiously optimistic about the 49ers finally returning to the playoffs after a 9 year absence. They have a chance this weekend to go up three games in the division. It won't come easy against the Bucs, who manhandled San Francisco at Candlestick last season, 21-0. I think things are different now that the Niners have not only a good motivator but someone that is a competent coach in Jim Harbaugh. It was nice to see Frank Gore finally get going but it remains to be seen if that was simply a product of the Eagles being atrocious on defense. The Niners offense has performed better at home and I am counting on that trend continuing for them to pick up their third straight win.

Prediction: San Francisco 20, Tampa Bay 17

San Diego (3-1) at Denver (1-3), San Diego favored by 4

So the Chargers finally covered against a crappy team. If they do it two weeks in a row then maybe I will finally start picking them to cover again. Their schedule has been ridiculously easy thus far. Their wins have come against opponents with a combined 1-11 record. We won't know anything more about them after they beat the crappy Broncos, but with Rivers struggling against these bad teams, it doesn't bode well for when the schedule picks up.

Prediction: San Diego 31, Denver 28

New York Jets (2-2) at New England (3-1), New England favored by 9 1/2

Revenge will be on the mind of the New England Patriots, while desperation is how the Jets feel. The Jets shocked the Patriots in the playoffs last season and then celebrated like they had won the Super Bowl. You know that probably didn't sit well with Belichick and company. The Jets have dropped two straight games and looked terrible in both of them. Against the Raiders the defense looked awful, while against the Ravens it was the offense's turn to be abysmal. The Jets chances rest on them re-assuming their identity of being a ground and pound team. This is not a team meant to have Sanchez dropping back to pass 35-40 times. Shonn Greene has to get something going on the ground, and if he can't the Jets need to give LaDainian Tomlinson or Joe McKnight a shot. If the Jets can't get the running game going, the Patriots will constantly be on offense and will shred the Jets. I think the Jets keep it interesting and hold the Patriots under 30 points, but it won't be enough.

Prediction: New England 24, New York Jets 17

Green Bay (4-0) at Atlanta (2-2), Green Bay favored by 5 1/2

Another playoff revenge game in the Sunday nighter. The Falcons were embarrassed at home last post-season when Aaron Rodgers went off on them and had probably the greatest performance of his career. The Falcons have been less than impressive through four games as evidenced by them nearly blowing a 20 point lead to a bad Seattle team. If Tavaris Jackson can light your defense up for over 300 yards, there is no telling what Rodgers will do to them. The Packers defense is still lagging well behind the offense and that will keep this game relatively close.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Atlanta 24

Monday, October 10

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (4-0), Detroit favored by 6

Monday Night Football returns to Detroit! Hank Williams won't be able to make the trip, he's playing golf with Obama or something. The Lions were once again down but for the second straight weekend not out, as they rallied to beat the Cowboys. Ford Field should be electric and it will be fun to watch how excited the players and fans will be now that Lions are truly relevant. Ndamukong Suh is going to eat Jay Cutler for breakfast, lunch, and dinner in this game. Nick Fairley may even get his first action of the season, and would bolster an already strong Lions defensive front. I am curious to see if Roy Williams makes his presence felt in his return to Detroit but most likely he will continue to be a waste of space. The old Lions would blow a game like this, but the old Lions wouldn't have come from behind the last two weeks. Detroit 5-0, yes, Detroit 5-0.

Prediction: Detroit 28, Chicago 17

Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 40-24

Last Week Against the Spread: 8-8
Overall Against the Spread: 33-29-2