The Hail Mary - Week 8

Last weekend featured a pretty uninspiring slate of games, but fortunately things improve a bit this weekend. The Steelers and Patriots renew their rivalry, although with how New England has dominated in recent years its not really much of a rivalry. Also, both prime time games are good. Dallas travels to Philadelphia in a crucial NFC East battle, and the Chiefs look to continue their resurrection at home against the Chargers. Oh yeah, it also is Halloween weekend so expect lots of crowd shots of people dressed up in random costumes. Yippie!

Week 8 - Sunday, October 30

Indianapolis (0-7) at Tennessee (3-3), Tennessee favored by 8 1/2

The Colts already dreadful season reached epically embarrassing depths last Sunday when they were blown out on national television by the Saints, 62-7. Fortunately, the Colts can only ruin two more prime time games, and one of those games, against the Patriots will likely be flexed out. The Titans were an early season surprise at 3-1 but have been blown out their last two games and the shine is officially off. Chris Johnson can't run the ball to save his life, and Matt Hasselbeck has reverted back to the quarterback the Seahawks were eager to part ways with. The Colts should be the perfect elixir for the Titans to get back to winning.

Prediction: Tennessee 28, Indianapolis 20

New Orleans (5-2) at St. Louis (0-6), New Orleans favored by 13

The Saints offense was on fire last Sunday night and the Saints get another chance to put up huge points when they face a winless team for the second week in a row. The Rams may be without QB Sam Bradford for a second straight game, not that him playing would help much. The only way this doesn't get ugly is if the Saints go into cruise control early.

Prediction: New Orleans 31, St. Louis 10

Miami (0-6) at New York Giants (4-2), New York Giants favored by 10

I have picked the Dolphins to cover the spread the last two weeks and was burned each time. Last weekend, they did it in spectacularly awful fashion, blowing a 15-0 lead in the final two minutes of the game, and adding to the legend of Tim Tebow. I don't have a ton of faith in the Giants, I mean they lost to the crappy Seahawks at home, but I can't pick Miami a third straight week.

Prediction: New York Giants 27, Miami 14

Minnesota (1-6) at Carolina (2-5), Carolina favored by 3 1/2

A rookie quarterback battle is the main attraction in this game. Vikings QB Christian Ponder showed flashes in his debut against Green Bay but also made mistakes you would expect from a rookie. He has to improve his accuracy, but I did like his ability to scramble and make plays. The Vikings have nothing but pride to play for the rest of the season, so ride it out with Ponder the last nine games and get an idea of what you have. The Panthers were smarter than everyone else when they held strong and picked Cam Newton. I had my doubts about Newton and his ability to throw the ball but he is light years ahead of someone like Tim Tebow, who many wanted to compare him to. The Panthers are definitely in that middle tier right now. They can compete with the best but aren't good enough yet to win. However, like they showed against the Redskins last weekend, they can beat mediocre to bad teams.

Prediction: Carolina 26, Minnesota 19

Arizona (1-5) at Baltimore (4-2), Baltimore favored by 13 1/2

I don't know what that was that the Ravens were trying to pass off as offense on Monday night but it was offensive. I hope John Clayton was watching so he can finally stop telling everyone that Joe Flacco is a good quarterback. Flacco is mediocre at best and always has been. The Ravens defense remains legit and to me is a huge surprise. I thought it was finally time to move on from the Ravens defense is great narrative but they have proven me wrong. The Ravens are the same as they ever were, awful on offense and carried by their defense. The Arizona Cardinals are in the midst of a tailspin and traveling across the country to Baltimore is not the recipe to get them back on track. Kevin Kolb is going to have a rough day.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Arizona 7

Jacksonville (2-5) at Houston (4-3), Houston favored by 9 1/2

The Jaguars are an awful offensive team but their defense has been showing up week after week. They may have to deal with the return of Andre Johnson this weekend. The Texans seemed left for dead with Johnson and Mario Williams out with injuries, but then crushed the Titans on the road and re-assumed control of the division. Blaine Gabbert has been completely underwhelming thus far but its hard to tell if that's more because his #1 receiver is some guy named Mike Thomas or if Gabbert just isn't very good. I was never that impressed with Gabbert in college, especially when he played Nebraska. The Jags defense will keep this close but the Texans will enter the halfway mark an encouraging 5-3.

Prediction: Houston 21, Jacksonville 13

Washington (3-3) "at" Buffalo (4-2) in Toronto, Canada, Buffalo favored by 6

If this game were in Buffalo I would pick the Bills to cover the six point line no question. Buffalo is a very tough place to win no matter what, and even harder when the Bills have a pretty good team like this season. After not feeling much of an injury bug for the first four games, players are dropping like flies now for the Redskins. The defense has been mostly unaffected but there is the possibility that LB London Fletcher could miss this game. The atmosphere in Toronto is less than intimidating and that is why I think the Skins can keep this close. However, I don't think they will be able to slow down Bills RB Fred Jackson, and I also expect WR Stevie Johnson to make some plays. John Beck will have some success but the Bills defense has been opportunistic and will likely force Beck into some interceptions. Beck looked awful to start the game against Carolina but seemed to find his comfort zone as the game went on. If the Redskins were healthier I might have picked them to pull off the upset, but they are too banged up on the offensive line and too inexperienced at quarterback to pull off the win.

Prediction: Buffalo 29, Washington 24

Detroit (5-2) at Denver (2-4), No Line

Matthew Stafford is questionable for the Lions, hence the reason this game is without a line. Tim Tebow makes his first home start of the season and will hope to avoid the clutches of Ndamukong Suh in this game. Suh continues to be called dirty and it is starting to get a little ridiculous to me. When did players in the NFL become such babies? Suh seems like he might have fit in better in the 70's when the Steelers were on steroids and the players were tougher. Even if the Lions have to go with Shaun Hill I like them to end their two game winning streak. Lions fans should be cautious though, the second half schedule is pretty daunting and I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions feel good story ends up being another non-playoff season.

Prediction: Detroit 23, Denver 16

New England (5-1) at Pittsburgh (5-2), New England favored by 3

I love this line and love the Patriots to cover it. The Steelers have never proven they can stop the Patriots when playing Tom Brady. He slices and dices their defense and dictates the course of the game with ease. I expect to see plenty of Brady to Wes Welker and Brady to Aaron Hernandez and budding porn star Rob Gronkowski. The Steelers offense will find success too but until the Steelers prove they can hang against the Patriots, it doesn't make sense to pick them to win, no matter where the game is played. Plus, the Steelers have beaten no one of note this season so while their 5-2 looks nice, it's not really legitimate.

Prediction: New England 35, Pittsburgh 24

Cleveland (3-3) at San Francisco (5-1), San Francisco favored by 8 1/2

It's weird to the 49ers favored by 8 1/2 in a game. I was pretty hesitant to take them to cover this line but then remembered that the Browns only scored 6 points at home last weekend against Seattle. I am a little worried about the Niners being rusty off the bye and also a little full of themselves after the hype they have been receiving. Hopefully, Harbaugh has kept that in check and keeps the Niners eyes on the prize. By time Sunday ends, they could be four games up in the division.

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Cleveland 17

Cincinnati (4-2) at Seattle (2-4), Cincinnati favored by 3

Seattle is a different team at home and Tarvaris Jackson may return and believe it or not has proven himself to be a considerable upgrade over Charlie Whitehurst. The Bengals are too young I think to go into Seattle and pull off the win. In fact the next two weeks will really tell us something about Cincinnati as they go to Tennessee next weekend. If they are as good as their record shows, those are games they should win, but I don't think the record tells the whole story with these Bengals.

Prediction: Seattle 20, Cincinnati 17

Dallas (3-3) at Philadelphia (2-4), Philadelphia favored by 3 1/2

The Eagles kept their season alive with a win against Washington two weeks ago and can really get themselves back into the NFC East race if they can knock off the Cowboys at home. Philly has yet to win a home game this year and dating back to last season has lost five games in a row at home. A statistic that works in their favor is that Andy Reid is 12-0 in the first game following a bye week in his career. These teams are very evenly matched and this game could really go either way. I think Michael Vick will make some plays like he always does and LeSean McCoy will find success running the ball. DeSean Jackson has always had the Cowboys number and I think he will find some success as well. The Eagles run defense will have to contain rookie sensation DeMarco Murray, and CB Asante Samuel needs to stop running his mouth and focus on coverage and picking off Tony Romo. I like the Eagles because of their success coming off a bye with Reid, as well as the fact that they have to win a home game eventually.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Dallas 21

Monday, October 31

San Diego (4-2) at Kansas City (3-3), San Diego favored by 3 1/2

A few weeks ago this looked like another Monday night snoozer, but the Chiefs have won three in a row and can be in a tie for first place with a victory Monday night. The Chiefs first showed signs of life when they gave the Chargers all they could handle in San Diego last month. They seemed to have found a running game with the emergence of Jackie Battle and that has taken some pressure off of Matt Cassel. As expected the Chargers blew a game against the Jets they should have won, which has been the story ever since Norv Turner has been the coach there. This game will be closer than it should, especially with how poorly Philip Rivers is playing right now, but the presence of Antonio Gates will be enough for the Chargers to get the victory.

Prediction: San Diego 23, Kansas City 21

Last Week Straight Up: 8-5
Overall Straight Up: 68-35

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-5-1
Overall Against the Spread: 53-47-3

Cram Session - Week 9

It was bound to happen sometime. College football finally went away from its chalkiness and because of that, I suffered my first incorrect picks in a month. Not even Texas Tech fans would have picked the Red Raiders to go into Norman and beat Choklahoma. Michigan State was down big early and looked to be proving me right about their fraudness, but then showed a lot of heart in making a comeback. As for Notre Dame losing to USC, I should have known better than to expect the Irish to maintain success.

Games That Matter to Me

Saturday, October 29

Navy (2-5) at Notre Dame (4-3)

Just as I was starting to feel good about the Irish, they went out and laid an egg in prime time against USC. They got down big early, a running theme at home this season, then when making a comeback, fumbled at the goal line and saw the Trojans run it back for a score, another running theme of the season. This team cannot handle success at all. Another problem is coach Brian Kelly likes to get way too cute with his play calling. When trailing 17-10 and driving to tie, Kelly puts in the third string quarterback to run a stupid draw. I'm all for trick plays but not when you are driving comfortably and looking to tie the game! To me that ruined the flow of the offense, and contributed to the disaster that was the next play. BCS hopes are dashed, and with most of the defense gone next season, it will probably be another trying year in 2012. Although, with how the defense has played the last few weeks, maybe all of them leaving is a good thing. This week, the Irish host a team that has had their number in recent years, the Midshipmen. Last season, Navy embarrassed the Irish 35-17, a shocking result to all college football fans. The Irish were completely befuddled by Navy's option offense and could do nothing to stop them. That was a strong Navy team last year, this year's squad is reeling, having lost five in a row. Much like Air Force, who the Irish crushed a few weeks ago, Navy will only throw the ball when they have to. They rely on QB Kriss Proctor and RB Alexander Teich to do the bulk of the running. Notre Dame had trouble slowing the Air Force offense but did create some turnovers. Where Notre Dame should have no problem finding success is on offense. The Falcons couldn't slow them down and Navy's defense shouldn't be able to either. Navy gives up an average of 30 points per game, including giving up 63 points to Southern Mississippi earlier this season. There is not a single player on the Midshipmen that can cover Michael Floyd. Cierre Wood completely disappeared from the game plan last week as soon as the Irish got behind. I would expect him to have a bounce back game and be a heavy part of the offense this week. There is absolutely no reason Notre Dame should lose to Navy this year. Avoid the sloppy early play and for the love of God stop turning the ball over in the red zone. If they do lose, I might have to strongly reconsider if I still want to go to FedEx to watch the Irish play the Twerps in a few weeks.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Navy 27

#11 Michigan State (6-1, 3-0) at #14 Nebraska (6-1, 2-1)

If the Spartans win at Lincoln they will basically have wrapped up the Legends division and secured their spot in the Big Ten (really 12) Championship game. The biggest key to this game is can the Spartans avoid a letdown after a very emotional victory against Wisconsin last weekend? The other question is, can the Spartans win a tough game on the road? They did win in Columbus but the Buckeyes are down this year, and in their other road game they were trounced by an average Notre Dame team. For Nebraska, can their offense do anything against a very good Michigan State defense? The Huskers are a one dimensional rushing team, and against lesser competition that hasn't mattered, but the Spartans will be the toughest defense they have faced this season. The Huskers struggled for three quarters against a very good Buckeyes defense and then turned it on in the fourth quarter. They can't get behind big in this game and expect to follow the same script. Taylor Martinez will have to make some plays throwing the ball. Rex Burkhead has been on a tear recently and will have to find ways to penetrate the stout Spartans defense. Also, the maligned Huskers defense will have to come up with a huge performance. Spartans QB Kirk Cousins had his best game of the season last weekend, so his confidence will be high. His favorite target is B.J. Cunningham who leads the team with 48 receptions, and is tied for the team lead with 3 TDs. The Spartans employ a two-headed rushing attack with Edwin Baker and Le'Veon Bell and they certainly could find some holes against Nebraska. I have gone back and forth all week on this game, I believe these are two evenly matched teams. Should be an exciting game, but I have to go homer and pick the Huskers.

Prediction: Nebraska 23, Michigan State 20


Top 10 - Saturday, October 29

Baylor (4-2, 1-2) at #3 Oklahoma State (7-0, 4-0)

The Cowboys are in the driver's seat to play for a national championship after the Sooners choked away their chance. The road won't be easy for the Cowboys as they still have to play three ranked teams in their final five games. However, the only one of those on the road is at Texas Tech. The Cowboys were impressive in their three touchdown road win at Missouri last weekend, overcoming the loss of Justin Blackmon and getting a great performance out of their defense. The defense will have its hands full this week against Robert Griffin III. If Griffin could play both offense and defense maybe the Bears would be able to win games against tough teams. This game should be a track meet but the Bears defense is not anywhere near the level of the Cowboys defense.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 50, Baylor 27

#5 Clemson (8-0, 5-0) at Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2)

People keep waiting for Clemson to stumble and they just keep winning. However, if any time is set up for them to have their stumble it might be this game. The Yellow Jackets don't look like a team ready to spring an upset, suffering back to back embarrassing losses to Virginia and Miami. However, those losses both came on the road. The Yellow Jackets are unbeaten at home and it should be a rowdy atmosphere as they get this game in prime time. The Tech offense has been dormant the last two weeks but the Tigers defense hasn't been able to stop anybody this season. Clemson has an incredible amount of offensive weapons but I don't think they can keep outscoring people. Eventually the offense will make mistakes and turnovers will be the difference in a loss. That nearly happened at Maryland a couple weeks ago but the Terps are awful so Clemson was able to escape. The Yellow Jackets are better and I think they will spring the upset.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 34, Clemson 28

#6 Stanford (7-0, 5-0) at USC (6-1, 3-1)

The Cardinal are the other national championship contender that faces a road test in prime time. No one has come close to Stanford all season and they easily dispatched the Huskies who were their first ranked opponent of the season. However, that game was at home, and this will be their first road challenge of the season. USC has a legit quarterback in Matt Barkley and surprisingly found a running game against Notre Dame. The question is, can their defense do enough to stop Andrew Luck as well as the killer ground attack that Stanford has, led by Stepfan Taylor. If the Trojans had a stronger defense I would consider picking them to pull the upset, but I don't think they have the horses capable of slowing down the Cardinal attack. It is amazing to think that in four years Stanford has gone from 40 point underdogs to the Trojans, to overwhelming favorites. Gotta love Jim Harbaugh.

Prediction: Stanford 38, USC 24

Washington State (3-4, 1-3) at #7 Oregon (6-1, 4-0)

There are still question marks surrounding whether QB Darron Thomas or RB LaMichael James will play. Chip Kelly doesn't think it matters and he would be right, as the Ducks haven't missed a beat without either. Washington State was looking slightly revitalized but then got their doors blown by off at home by an awful Oregon State team last week.

Prediction: Oregon 53, Washington State 14

#9 Oklahoma (6-1, 3-1) at #8 Kansas State (7-0, 4-0)

I should have seen it coming. I stopped myself from calling them Choklahoma but they lived up to their nickname last weekend, losing at home to Texas Tech. Now it will take a miracle for them to play for the national championship. However, they can still win the Big 12, that is if they can end the undefeated season of Kansas State on Saturday. The Wildcats have come out of nowhere, mostly because Bill Snyder might be one of the best college football coaches in history. Yes, that is not a typo, the job he has done not once but twice resurrecting Kansas State is remarkable. However, I think reality will set in this weekend. Kansas State has won despite its struggles on offense. The Sooners defense has looked vulnerable at times this year but I think they can feast on a limited offensive team. Landry Jones and the offense will find success and the Sooners will get back on track.

Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Kansas State 16

#10 Arkansas (6-1, 2-1) at Vanderbilt (4-3, 1-3)

The Razorbacks had way too much trouble at Ole Miss last week, having to come from 17-0 down to pull out the victory. Most people probably don't know that the Commodores are now quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers little brother, Jordan. Jordan struggled with his accuracy in his first start against Army last weekend, but was a threat running the ball, rushing for 96 yards and a touchdown. Arkansas will have their hands full on the road but I expect them to not be caught blindsided like they were last weekend.

Prediction: Arkansas 37, Vanderbilt 24

Last Week: 9-3
Overall: 71-7

The Hail Mary - Week 7

So I finally have a Sunday where nothing is planned. That means I can watch football uninterrupted, and not have to catch up on the DVR all day. That is all well and good until you look at this week's schedule. There are some decent 1:00 games but beyond that the slate is pretty awful. No really good 4/4:15 games, and the Sunday night and Monday night games are both atrocious. Oh well, I still will have a day of relaxation and football watching, only stopping for the occasional bite to eat, oh and laundry, probably some laundry going on.

Week 7 - Sunday, October 23

Seattle (2-3) at Cleveland (2-3), Cleveland favored by 3

The Madden Curse has once again proven itself to be an unstoppable force. Sure, Peyton Hillis was probably a one hit wonder anyways but he stood no chance against the cover of Madden. Browns QB Colt McCoy has a nice touchdown to interception ratio but he is completing just 55% of his passes. The Seahawks aren't sure which quarterback will be starting for them, Tavaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst. They almost make Rex Grossman and John Beck look like a murderer's row. If Jackson is too injured, Whitehurst will start. It's really of no consequence, the Seahawks aren't any better or worse off depending on the quarterback. They will grind out this win on the back of RB Marshawn Lynch.

Prediction: Seattle 22, Cleveland 19

Atlanta (3-3) at Detroit (5-1), Detroit favored by 3 1/2

So I was feeling sorta happy for the Lions after their fast start. They have been a down and out franchise for basically forever so it was cool to see them doing well. I don't feel so happy for them now, after finding out what a whiny, a-hole Jim Schwartz is. He prefers a dead fish handshake as opposed to a manly handshake. Any manly handshake causes him to lose his mind. It was funny to me that he thought Jim Harbaugh was too exuberant when he acts like a jackass on the sidelines all of the time. Look in the mirror Jim, just look in the mirror. The Lions are a mess at running back right now, and as Frank Gore showed last week, their run defense can be penetrated. I'm not too high on the Falcons, but I think the Lions being one dimensional on offense will hurt them, and Michael Turner can have the type of game Gore did.

Prediction: Atlanta 27, Detroit 23

Houston (3-3) at Tennessee (3-2), Tennessee favored by 3

There is rumblings that Texans WR Andre Johnson might return for this game. I think it's just wishful thinking and more than likely he will return for the Texans next game. They could certainly use him, especially their fraudtastic QB Matt Schaub. The Titans are coming off their bye and can really take control of the AFC South with a victory. The Titans are hoping Matt Hasselebeck didn't lose the fountain of youth during the bye. Along those lines, they are hoping Chris Johnson rediscovered it.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Houston 17

Denver (1-4) at Miami (0-5), Miami favored by 2

That was a pitiful performance the Dolphins put out on Monday Night Football. Tony Sparano should be put out of his misery, as this team has quit on him. The intriguing subplot to this game is Tim Tebow making his first start of the season. John Elway and John Fox are so insistent that he not succeed they traded away his best receiver for a bag of poop. The Dolphins are a terrible home team, but I don't see them going 0-16. They have to find a win somewhere and this is as good a place as any. Who knows, motivated by playing his former team Brandon Marshall might decide to actually score a touchdown.

Prediction: Miami 14, Denver 13

San Diego (4-1) at New York Jets (3-3), San Diego favored by 2

In a weekend of underwhelming games, this is the best one. Their are some good storylines for this game. LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Cromartie face their former team, and Rex Ryan stated the obvious, that Norv Turner is a terrible head coach, and that didn't sit well with ole Norvell. The Chargers have done something different and won some early season games, but in doing so, they have looked like crap and are a very unconvincing 4-1. The Jets ended their three game losing streak against Miami, but looked pretty inept and Jets fans are all still panicking. Most people will go with the Chargers but I haven't liked what I have seen out of San Diego all season. The Jets are 3-0 at home this season and I think they will play their best game of the season on Sunday and pull off the mini-upset.

Prediction: New York Jets 21, San Diego 17

Chicago (3-3) "at" Tampa Bay (4-2) in London, Chicago favored by 1

The annual London game pits Chicago and Tampa Bay, former NFC Central rivals. Tampa recovered well from the beat down the 49ers gave them, and knocked off the Saints at home. The Bears got to feel good for a night by playing a team even more hapless than them, the Vikings. If Tampa really was the home team I would pick them but this being a neutral field, I think the Bears are actually the better team. The Bears struggles come when teams have capable pass rushers, and the Bucs aren't very good at getting to the quarterback. I think Jay Cutler has a good game and the Bears win.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Tampa Bay 20

Washington (3-2) at Carolina (1-5), Carlina favored by 2 1/2

The John Beck era begins for the Redskins. In last week's Hail Mary, I said this:

"Rex throwing mostly leads to bad things."

Damn, I'm smart. Grossman was terrible, and all season has lived up to his career reputation as a turnover machine, so Mike Shanahan had no choice but to make the quarterback change. The local media is apoplectic and saying if John Beck fails that maybe the Shanahan era should end. That point of view is so stupid and short sighted. Sure, Shanahan said he would stake his reputation on Grossman and Beck. Did he need to go that far? No, but what do you want him to say? He had to at least make the appearance that he thought he could win with them. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Shanahan knows that Beck and Grossman are nothing but journeyman. He has improved the talent of the Skins in many positions, but this year his hands were tied. Their wasn't a quarterback they could get in the draft that was a franchise type guy so rather than reach for one, he chose to bide his time this year. It is my belief that next year, be it in the draft or trade Shanahan will get a quality quarterback. The Skins have a great chance of winning 8 games, which would be an improvement over last year. Skins fans and the media blast Dan Snyder for never being patient, but then if Shanahan wins 8 games this year, they will talk about how he is failing. They need to look at the big picture, Shanahan is starting from scratch and it takes time to build a consistent winner. If by next season the Skins are missing the playoffs for a third straight year, then the fans would be right to question what is going on. However, I believe the team is showing improvement and things are going in the right direction.

Now as far as the game this weekend, I don't like the Skins chances. The Panthers have been competitive all season and seem due for a victory. If the Redskins were relatively healthy on the offensive line I would pick them, even with Beck making his first start. But with the line being a mess, and trying to get a new quarterback in their, it is too much upheaval. While I think the Skins defense can force Newton into some mistakes, I think he will make enough big plays to counteract those mistakes, and the Panthers finally break through with a win.

Prediction: Carolina 23, Washington 17

Kansas City (2-3) at Oakland (4-2), Oakland favored by 3 1/2

The Raiders made big news this week by essentially ending Jason Campbell's career as an NFL starter. Campebell went down last weekend with a broken collarbone and rather than rely on Kyle Boller to get them to the playoffs, the Raiders overspent to trade for Carson Palmer. If they were getting the Carson Palmer from 2006 I would have understood the trade but Palmer has been mediocre ever since that season. He did have 26 TDs last season but he also had 20 INTs and makes some truly awful throws, which leads to him throwing a lot of pick sixes to the defense. Despite having sat on his couch all season, it is likely that Palmer will get the start. I don't expect Palmer to do much but I think the Raiders will still win because of Darren McFadden. He has had success against the Chiefs before, and after having been quiet for the past two weeks, I think he is due for a breakout game.

Prediction: Oakland 18, Kansas City 15

Pittsburgh (4-2) at Arizona (1-4), Pittsburgh favored by 3 1/2

It is a rematch of Super Bowl XLIII although the Cardinals are far removed from the team that played in that game. Kevin Kolb has struggled and the locals are already turning on him. The Steelers are 4-2 but remain underwhelming. They may make the playoffs merely because they are facing a weak schedule. One good sign for Pittsburgh was Rashard Mendenhall breaking out with a big game last weekend. He had been quiet all season, and with Ben Roethlisberger struggling somewhat, they needed the running game to get going to take some pressure off of him.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 17

St. Louis (0-5) at Dallas (2-3), Dallas favored by 13

The Cowboys got a great defensive effort but the offense couldn't convert their red zone opportunities into touchdowns against the Patriots and it ended up costing them. Now they get to host the NFL whipping boy, the Rams. The line is a little too steep for me to expect an average team like the Cowboys to cover, but the result will never seriously be in doubt.

Prediction: Dallas 24, St. Louis 13

Green Bay (6-0) at Minnesota (1-5), Green Bay favored by 8

Christian Ponder makes his first career start for the Vikings. The Vikings looked completely listless against the Bears and I think Donovan McNabb stopped caring about winning two years ago. He keeps saying he has football left in him, which may be true but its beyond obvious that he has no good football left in him. The Metrodome used to be a house of horror for the Packers but I don't expect it to present much of a challenge for them this season. QB Aaron Rodgers will be as precise as always and the Packers defense will harrass Ponder into a rough game.

Prediction: Green Bay 28, Minnesota 13

Indianapolis (0-6) at New Orleans (4-2), New Orleans favored by 14

Before the season and before it was known Peyton Manning wouldn't be playing this looked like a great game. Now, it features a winless Colts team that will be hoping to not be embarrassed in the Superdome. The Saints suffered a surprising loss last weekend and saw their coach get injured and have to undergo surgery last week. If the Saints don't blow out the Colts at home, some questions may have to start being asked about how legit New Orleans is. I think Drew Brees is going to have a field day picking apart the Colts defense and they will roll to a win, while the Colts continue their march to drafting Manning's successor, Andrew Luck.

Prediction: New Orleans 38, Indianapolis 17

Monday, October 24

Baltimore (4-1) at Jacksonville (1-5), Baltimore favored by 7 1/2

Booooooooooooooooooooring! Ravens games are already boring, put them against an awful team and you have found yourself the cure for insomnia. Why exactly did the Jags get two home, Monday night games? Everyone knew they would be terrible. Jacksonville doesn't even care about the Jags, why the hell would the rest of the country.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Jacksonville 9

Last Week Straight Up: 12-1 (Stupid New Orleans kept me from being perfect) Overall Straight Up: 60-30

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-7
Overall Against the Spread: 46-42-2

Cram Session - Week 8

A boring college football season trudges along. How people can argue that college football is anywhere near as exciting as the NFL is beyond me. However, one good thing about all the chalkiness we have seen this year, my picks have been on point! I have correctly predicted every Top 10, Notre Dame, and Nebraska game for the past month. Now that I bring it up here, this is probably the weekend the streak dies. There are some candidates for upsets. Michigan State hosts Wisconsin under the lights, Oklahoma State has another tough road test at Missouri, and Stanford finally faces a competent football team. Everyone is counting down to November 5th when LSU/Alabama meet, but hopefully the season can start to get exciting before then.

Games That Matter to Me

Saturday, October 22

USC (5-1) at Notre Dame (4-2)

Notre Dame plays under the lights at South Bend for the first time in 21 years. Pat Haden may think that the Notre Dame/USC rivalry means nothing to the players, but he needs to understand that it still means a ton to the fans. Whether USC was down or not last year, the Irish finally beating the Trojans was a great thing for Notre Dame fans to see. The icing on the cake would be to finally beat the Trojans in South Bend, something Notre Dame hasn't done since 2000. The Irish are favored but can't take the Trojans lightly. The Irish's most recent opponents have been strong rushing teams but weak to awful passing teams. This has played into the strength of the Notre Dame defense. However, the Trojans don't really care to run the ball and love to air it out. They are led by QB Matt Barkley, who has been fantastic this season. Barkley has 16 TDs, 4 INTs, and is completing 68% of his passes. He will look early and often for his favorite target, sophomore WR Robert Woods. Woods has 60 catches this season and 6 TDs, which are numbers that almost match his totals from last season. Against Minnesota he had an astounding 17 receptions, and then 14 receptions against Arizona a few weeks ago. The Irish need to double team him and do whatever it takes to keep Woods out of the game. The Irish have shown they can be susceptible to teams just throwing the ball up so you know that will be in the Trojans game plan. When the Trojans do run the ball they rely on Marc Tyler. Tyler has only had more than 20 carries once this year and surprisingly that came in a game the Trojans were routed in against Arizona State. He is coming off suffering a shoulder dislocation but is intent on playing. As for the Irish, the offense hopefully remains as precise as it has been the last few weeks. Tommy Rees has cut down on the turnovers, Michael Floyd continues to dominate, and RB Cierre Wood has given the Irish a viable rushing game. This game will come down to the Irish limiting their mistakes, and not letting Barkley go crazy. Barkley didn't play in last year's game so you know he will be itching to take his shots at Notre Dame. I expect a close, tight game, but the Irish to escape with a victory.

Prediction: Notre Dame 30, USC 26

#13 Nebraska (5-1, 1-1) at Minnesota (1-5, 0-2)

Last we saw of Nebraska they were completing the biggest comeback in school history, defeating Ohio State. The Huskers played the first half like they were still licking their wounds from the beat down Wisconsin gave them. Then the defense made a play and the offense woke up. During their bye they got the bad news that Jared Crick will be out for the season. He hadn't been playing very well this season but it is still a huge loss for an already struggling defense. Hopefully, LB Lavonte David can continue his fantastic play. Taylor Martinez still can make Huskers fans cringe when he throws but he showed great perseverance in leading them back against the Buckeyes. They go to Minnesota this week and I am not even going to bother doing a run down of the Golden Gophers. All that needs to be said is they are awful and earlier this year they lost at home to North Dakota State and New Mexico State. Nebraska should roll.

Prediction: Nebraska 42, Minnesota 14


Top 10 - Saturday, October 22

#20 Auburn (5-2, 3-1) at #1 LSU (7-0, 4-0)

This game got a little more intriguing with the announcement yesterday that CB Tyrann Mathieu, DB Therold Simon, and RB Spencer Ware failed drug tests and will be suspended for this game. Must have been a crucial puff, puff, pass session they had going on. Auburn is giving QB Clint Moseley his first start of the season, hoping to ignite an offense that has struggled recently under Barrett Trotter. While the Tigers will miss their suspended players, they have been dealing with suspensions all season and it hasn't slowed them down. Tigers fans are pissy because they won't host any night games this season, but rather than care about that, they should focus on the fact that their team is the second best in the country.

Prediction: LSU 27, Auburn 10

Tennessee (3-3, 0-3) at #2 Alabama (7-0, 4-0)

I feel bad for teams like Florida and Tennessee that get to play LSU and Alabama back to back. Getting your brains beat in two weeks in a row can't be good for confidence. This is the Crimson Tide's last game before the Game of the Century at home against LSU in two weeks.

Prediction: Alabama 45, Tennessee 7

Texas Tech (4-2, 1-2) at #3 Oklahoma (6-0, 3-0)

The Sooners started slow against Kansas before remembering how much better they are than the Jayhawks. Oklahoma heads to Manhattan, Kansas next weekend where they will play a likely unbeaten Kansas State team. However, they can't look past the Red Raiders. Texas Tech has two losses but was competitive in both games against Texas A&M and Kansas State. They have their usual high powered offense but unfortunately also have their usual sieve like defense.

Prediction: Oklahoma 41, Texas Tech 21

#4 Oklahoma State (6-0, 3-0) at Missouri (3-3, 1-2)

On paper, looking at the records this would seem like an easy game for the Cowboys. But look deeper and you see that Missouri has won 10 games in a row at home, and their 3 losses this season have all been close losses on the road. The Cowboys have shown they can win in tough places, earning victories at Texas A&M and Texas. Things are being set up for defacto national semi-finals with #1 LSU set to meet #2 Alabama, and then possibly #3 Oklahoma taking on #4 Oklahoma State. This could be a trap game though and if the Cowboys want to continue to quiet the doubters a win here would continue their impressive season. If the Tigers pull the upset it will be because of sensational RB Henry Josey.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34, Missouri 31

Air Force (3-3, 0-2) at #5 Boise State (6-0, 1-0)

Boise State welcomed themselves to the Mountain West by obliterating Colorado State. They seem destined to finish undefeated but on the outside of the national championship picture. Going to the Big East doesn't make any geographical sense, but if the Broncos want the opportunity to ever play for the national championship, it would be much more realistic in the Big East.

Prediction: Boise State 53, Air Force 17

#6 Wisconsin (6-0, 2-0) at #16 Michigan State (5-1, 2-0)

The Spartans are feeling good about themselves after beating Michigan for the fourth straight season. They feel like they have a pretty legitimate defense and can slow down Wisconsin's offensive assault, that is averaging 50 points in 6 games. QB Russell Wilson will have the spotlight on him in prime time, and a strong game on the road would likely vault him to the top of the Heisman race. The only chance the Spartans have is for their defense to feed off the home crowd and play amazing. Their offense is uninspiring and won't outscore the Badgers. I don't expect the Badgers to put up 50 like they have every week but they will end a three game losing streak at Spartan Stadium in convincing fashion.

Prediction: Wisconsin 30, Michigan State 17

North Carolina (5-2, 1-2) at #7 Clemson (7-0, 4-0)

The Tigers seemed destined to have their Clemson moment of underwhelming. They were getting routed on the road by Maryland but then the second half happened. The Tigers offensive playmakers, QB Tajh Boyd, RB Andre Ellington, and WR Sammy Watkins took over the game and brought the Tigers back. The rest of the Tigers schedule should see them favored in every game, so a 12-0 regular season is a real possibility. The Tar Heels looked like a pretty decent team but then were torched by an average Miami team at home. That doesn't speak well for their chances in a hostile environment this weekend.

Prediction: Clemson 40, North Carolina 24

#25 Washington (5-1, 3-0) at #8 Stanford (6-0, 4-0)

This game is all about the quarterbacks. Everyone knows Andrew Luck, and they will soon get to know Huskies quarterback Keith Price. Price has been almost as good as Luck and has made Huskie fans quickly forget about overrated Jake Locker. For Stanford, this is their first game against a ranked opponent and will be a good test as the schedule strengthens with a road trip against USC and a home date with Oregon coming up. The offenses are about equal but the Cardinal defense is much better than the Huskies, and will prove to be the difference.

Prediction: Stanford 42, Washington 24

#9 Arkansas (5-1, 2-1) at Mississippi (2-4, 0-3)

Houston Nutt takes on his former team. At the rate the Rebels season is going, they will be his former team by the end of the season.

Prediction: Arkansas 36, Mississippi 14

#10 Oregon (5-1, 3-0) at Colorado (1-6, 0-3)

Oregon is expecting QB Darron Thomas to play, despite him leaving the Arizona State game with an injury. They likely won't have RB LaMichael James back, but that won't be an issue with Kenjon Barner playing as well as he did last weekend. The Buffaloes are awful and even worse ravaged by injury, they don't stand a chance.

Prediction: Oregon 40, Colorado 14

Last Week: 9-0!!!!!!!!! (37-0 over the last month)
Overall: 62-4

The Hail Mary - Week 6

People around DC are all wrapped up with the Philadelphia Eagles trying to save their season against the Washington Redskins. However, the rest of the country and myself knows that the true game of the weekend takes place in Detroit. The resurgent 4-1 49ers take on the resurgent 5-0 Lions. I can name exactly no one that would have picked this as the game of the week six weeks ago. Also, for those of you that read last week, I did end up going apple picking and it actually way more fun that I expected. No, I will not turn in my man card.

Week 6 - Sunday, October 16

Carolina (1-4) at Atlanta (2-3), Atlanta favored by 4 1/2

The Panthers continue to remain competitive, but also continue to find ways to not turn that competitiveness into wins. The Falcons came out on fire against the Packers then meekly did nothing after building a 14-0 lead at home, and were once against thrashed by Green Bay. The Falcons haven't looked right all season, with the offense struggling, mostly because the offensive line is struggling. The Panthers defense hasn't shown it can slow anyone down, unless its playing Jacksonville in a monsoon. Expect a familiar script for Carolina, Cam Newton will keep them in the game, until they lose late.

Prediction: Atlanta 27, Carolina 24

Indianapolis (0-5) at Cincinnati (3-2), Cincinnati favored by 7

Will the Colts ever win a game? Curtis Painter looks like a massive upgrade over Kerry Collins but the Colts still blew a 17 point lead at home to the Chiefs. The Bengals are actually pretty decent and nowhere near the awful team I expected them to be. Their draft class of AJ Green and Andy Dalton are both playing pretty well and is promising for their future. However, its the Bengals so I am sure things will fall apart at some point. Not this week though.

Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Indianapolis 14

San Francisco (4-1) at Detroit (5-0), Detroit favored by 5

Well I didn't see a 48-3 butt whooping of the Bucs happening last weekend, but sure enough it did. QB Alex Smith is avoiding mistakes and making plays, Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter are running the ball well, and the defense is forcing turnovers and making stops. Carlos Rogers, who couldn't catch anything in Washington, now has three interceptions this year and is looking like one of the better corners in the league. All these good vibes have a chance to be taken down a notch with the Niners having to travel to Detroit. The Lions sputtered out of the gates on Monday Night, but then in the second half, took control of the game to improve to 5-0. I admit to being biased but I think the Niners can pull the upset. Their offensive line is better than the Bears, so the Lions won't get the kind of pressure on Smith that they did on Jay Cutler. I don't think Jahvid Best will be breaking any really long runs, and if the Niners can hold Calvin Johnson to just one touchdown this game, that would be a victory. I also think the Lions could experience a bit of a let down after all the hype that went into last Monday's game. The Niners will have to play a great game but I think they are the team to end the Lions undefeated run.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, Detroit 23

St. Louis (0-4) at Green Bay (5-0), Green Bay favored by 15

The only reason this game won't be any uglier is because Green Bay will probably pull most of their starters early. The Packers are a machine right now and clearly the best team in football.

Prediction: Green Bay 30, St. Louis 14

Buffalo (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2), New York Giants favored by 3 1/2

The New York Giants have been averse to success the last 2 1/2 seasons. They were surprising everyone with their 3-1 start, look primed to go to 4-1 with the Seahawks coming to town, and then laid an egg. Eli Manning continued to show the inconsistency that has plagued him in his career. He can have a few good games but then he always reverts back to one of those 3 interception stinkers. The Bills had the good fortune of playing the mistake prone Eagles and improved to 4-1. The defense seems to be following a 2009 Saints model of bending, not breaking and also creating points through turnovers. All that being said I'm still not sold on them going on the road and winning a tough game.

Prediction: New York Giants 28, Buffalo 27

Jacksonville (1-4) at Pittsburgh (3-2), Pittsburgh favored by 12

So the Steelers aren't quite ready to have their obituary written. They played inspired football against the Titans, and Big Ben finally woke up, throwing 5 TDs. Jacksonville is just atrocious and Jack Del Rio is probably hoping he can be put out of his misery.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Jacksonville 12

Philadelphia (1-4) at Washington (3-1), Philadelphia favored by 1

Vegas obviously still believes in the Eagles and crazy as it may sound I do as well. The Eagles have some flaws that aren't correctable, namely their linebackers suck. However, the reason for their four losses has mostly been self inflicted wounds. They have made dumb plays, like Jaqua Parker being stupid enough to fall for Ryan Fitzpatrick's hard count at the end of last week's game. They also have been killing themselves with turnovers, especially in the Red Zone. This is still a very talented team, with one of the fastest, dangerous offenses there has been in a long time. They are too good not to come together and have a strong effort. The Skins are coming off their bye and sit alone in first place. They have a great chance this weekend to get a firm hold on the division with a win, and knock the Eagles out of contention in the process. This is the type of game though that Redskins fans have expected them to lose. If this truly is the start of a new era for the Redskins, a win in this game would go a long way in convincing the fans of that. Alas, I am a pessimist and I expect the Skins to revert to what they know, underachieving. Kyle Shanahan will likely get too cute and instead of exposing the Eagles weaknesses stopping the run, he will inexplicably have Rex Grossman throwing the ball too much. Rex throwing mostly leads to bad things.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Washington 20

Cleveland (2-2) at Oakland (3-2), Oakland favored by 6

I only mostly experienced kooky Al Davis, and didn't get to see much of the guy that was a visionary and successful in the NFL. But watching Hue Jackson get so emotional after the Raiders beat the Texans was pretty touching. The Raiders are looking more and more legit each week. If they can at least cut the penalties in half they would be on the upper echelon of the league. The Browns are going to be walking into an emotionally charged environment. Things could get ugly for young Colt McCoy. No word yet if Peyton Hillis' agent will advise him not to play with a headache this weekend.

Prediction: Oakland 26, Cleveland 16

Houston (3-2) at Baltimore (3-1), Baltimore favored by 7 1/2

The AFC South seemed right their for the taking for the Texans. The Colts are without Peyton Manning, the Jaguars are poop, and the Titans figured to be rebuilding. But now things are slowly falling apart for Houston. They are without WR Andre Johnson, which exposes Matt Schaub for the mediocre QB he is, and now they lost Mario Williams for the season on defense. Despite that, I think they can keep it close with the Ravens. Joe Flacco has been very shaky this season and the Ravens are looking like the old school Ravens that won simply because they were so outstanding defensively. To me that is one of the bigger surprises this year, as I thought the defense would finally start showing their age.

Prediction: Baltimore 21, Houston 14

Dallas (2-2) at New England (4-1), New England favored by 7

I am looking forward to watching this game, as it is filled with playmakers on both sides of the ball for each team. Tony Romo has to avoid the killer mistakes because he can definitely torch the Patriots awful passing defense, especially with the return of his favorite target WR Miles Austin. I expect the Patriots and Tom Brady to go out and do what they do every week, make it look easy. They have scored at least 30 points in 13 straight regular season games, after Sunday it will be 14.

Prediction: New England 31, Dallas 21

New Orleans (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)

The Buccaneers have to show whether them losing to the Niners that badly was a case of a short week and a cross country trip, or if they are simply just not ready for prime time. Josh Freeman has started slowly, while WR Mike Williams has been practically non-existent. The Saints are riding a four game winning streak and would take control of the NFC South with a victory. Drew Brees is playing very well this season, and looking more like the Brees from 2009, then the interception happy one from 2010.

Prediction: New Orleans 33, Tampa Bay 23

Minnesota (1-4) at Chicago (2-3), Chicago favored by 3

These two are lagging far behind in the NFC North and the loser of this game can pretty much throw in the towel for the season. The Vikings, and especially Jared Allen will have a great chance to wreak havoc against the Bears laughably bad offensive line. Problem is, even when the Vikings were good, they could never win in Chicago. Another problem is Donovan McNabb remains the quarterback and can't pass for shit. The Bears defense is better than the Cardinals so I don't expect Adrian Peterson to be able to rack up 3 TDs in one quarter. This will probably be a defensive struggle, with the Bears making one more play than the Vikings to get the win.

Prediction: Chicago 21, Minnesota 17

Monday, October 17

Miami (0-4) at New York Jets (2-2), New York Jets favored by 7

The Matt Moore era begins in Miami! Chad Henne has been lost for the season, so Moore, who failed in Carolina last season, gets a chance in Miami. For some reason, Dolphins WR Brandon Marshall says he wants to get ejected by the 2nd quarter with the reason being he is a complete lunatic. Or maybe he just doesn't want to be on the field when the Dolphins fall to 0-5. The Jets are in disarray, having lost three in a row and trading away WR Derrick Mason due to him causing problems in the locker room. It shouldn't be time to completely panic for the Jets as their three game losing streak came against good teams and on the road. They shouldn't assume this is a win though because the Dolphins have won at New York for three straight seasons. I expect Miami will keep it close but have no confidence in their ability to win a game.

Prediction: New York Jets 19, Miami 17

Last Week Straight Up: 8-5
Overall Straight Up: 48-29

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-6
Overall Against the Spread: 40-35-2

Cram Session - Week 7

Pretty weak weekend for college football. Both Notre Dame and Nebraska are on bye weeks and their are no real stand out games that grab your attention. Sometimes those weekends end up being the best though, because the games end up being good and catch everyone by surprise. Most of the hyped games this season have been blowouts, so perhaps dialing down on the hype will lead to better games.

Top 10 - Saturday, October 15

#1 LSU (6-0, 3-0) at Tennessee (3-2, 0-2)

Last year's game is remembered for the whole too many players on the field debacle that kept the Volunteers from a huge upset win in Baton Rouge. The Volunteers will start backup Matt Simms, as starter Tyler Bray is out with a broken thumb on his throwing hand. The Tigers feasted on Florida's third string quarterback last weekend and will no doubt he licking their chops to face Simms. I expect the Vols to keep this game closer than the Gators were able to, mostly because they have a pretty good defense. The LSU offense remains pretty mediocre I think the Vols can force LSU into some mistakes that will allow them to hang around. It won't be enough though.

Prediction: LSU 24, Tennessee 13

#2 Alabama (6-0, 3-0) at Mississippi (2-3, 0-2)

The Alabama offensive attack is becoming more balanced with the emergence of QB AJ McCarron which would seem to give them an edge heading into their November 5th showdown with LSU. Houston Nutt is hanging on by a thread at Mississippi and the next three weeks figure to not be too kind to him and the Rebels. After they lose to Bama this weekend, they have to play at Arkansas and host Auburn in the next two weeks. Life in the SEC.

Prediction: Alabama 30, Mississippi 10

#3 Oklahoma (5-0, 2-0) at Kansas (2-3, 0-2)

Its sad to see former Husker legend Turner Gill failing so miserably in Lawrence. Jayhawks fans are probably missing morbidly obese Mark Mangino right about now. The Jayhawks had 70 laid on them last weekend by Oklahoma State, while the Sooners absolutely destroyed Texas in the Red River Rivalry. The only reason I am not expecting Oklahoma to hang 70 on the Jayhawks is because the game is in Lawrence and the defense has been a little less than awful at home.

Prediction: Oklahoma 48, Kansas 17

Indiana (1-5, 0-2) at #4 Wisconsin (5-0, 1-0)

This is another huge mismatch. Indiana's only win of the season came against South Carolina State. Non-sequitur but some Penn State fans don't understand why their team isn't ranked when they are 5-1. Well, beating a sorry team like Indiana by 6 points is probably a huge part of that. The only reason I don't expect Wisconsin to win by an even larger margin is I think they will call off the dogs rather early. They have a huge game at Michigan State next weekend to prepare for.

Prediction: Wisconsin 45, Indiana 13

#5 Boise State (5-0, 0-0) at Colorado State (3-2, 1-0)

The Broncos are making their Mountain West Conference debut. With all of the conference realignment that is happening it remains to be seen how long Boise remains in the Mountain West. The Broncos laid a butt whooping on Fresno State last week, winning by 50 points on the road. However, with no ranked teams left on their schedule, and with TCU being down this year, it will take a miracle for Boise State to play in the national championship game. Heck, even making a BCS bowl may be impossible, even if Boise finishes unbeaten.

Prediction: Boise State 38, Colorado State 20

#6 Oklahoma State (5-0, 2-0) at #22 Texas (4-1, 1-1)

The Longhorns have no time to lick their wounds after their embarrassing defeat against Oklahoma last weekend. Next up is the Cowboys, whose offense continues to put up insane amounts of points and yards. This is the start of a pretty tough four game stretch for the Cowboys, who are hoping to go into their rivalry game with Oklahoma unbeaten. I don't think the Longhorns are as bad as they showed last weekend, and it also helps that the Cowboys defense is nowhere near the level of the Sooners defense. I think Case McCoy and David Ash will bounce back and make some plays to keep it interesting. However, the Horn defense is too young to stop Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 35, Texas 27

#7 Stanford (5-0, 3-0) at Washington State (3-2, 1-1)

Stanford keeps blowing teams out, and Andrew Luck keeps playing amazing football on his way to a Heisman trophy. Washington State has showed some fight this season and if they hadn't choked against UCLA last weekend would be 4-1. I think this will end up being Stanford's toughest game this season but tough is relative, they will still win by two scores.

Prediction: Stanford 37, Washington State 23

#8 Clemson (6-0, 3-0) at Maryland (2-3, 1-1)

Everyone is still waiting for Clemson to revert back to the norm but the Tigers keep winning. Now they face a Terps team in some turmoil as a quarterback controversy has erupted. It is not clear if C.J. Brown or Danny O'Brien will start for Maryland but what is clear is that it likely doesn't matter. Clemson will only lose this game if they beat themselves and have turnovers or something. The Terps defense showed fire at Georgia Tech last weekend in limiting the Yellow Jackets attack, so because of that I expect the Terps to hang around for a bit. However, too much Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins for the Terps to pull an upset.

Prediction: Clemson 26, Maryland 17

#18 Arizona State (5-1, 3-0) at #9 Oregon (4-1, 2-0)

The absence of star running back LaMichael James for the Ducks gives the Sun Devils some hope. Arizona State's only loss this year was by 3 points to undefeated Illinois, and by Pac-10 standards they have a pretty good defense. Despite being without James, the Ducks still have plenty of depth as both Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas have had success rushing the ball. The quarterbacks will also be fun to watch. Ducks QB Darron Thomas has 15 TDs and 2 INTs, while Sun Devils QB Brock Osweiler is extremely accurate and has 13 TDs to 6 INTs this season. Dennis Erickson has done enough this season to get himself off the hot seat but his team isn't ready to win a road game like this. That being said their is a pretty good chance these teams could see each other again in the Pac-12 Championship game.

Prediction: Oregon 27, Arizona State 20

Last Week: 11-0!!!!!!!! (28-0 my last three weeks)
Overall: 53-4

The Hail Mary - Week 5

I feel like crap and probably shouldn't be at work, let alone doing the Hail Mary today. However, I owe it to you, my loyal, select readers, that live and die with my slightly above .500 picks. The games this weekend are mostly how I feel, shitty. However, in good news, the 49ers are 3-1 and technically play in the best game of the weekend, against the also 3-1 Buccaneers. I was hoping to finally have a Sunday where I did nothing all day but watch football. But alas, it looks like I may be roped into apple picking. Either way, I will do whatever it takes, turn my phone off, record all the games, make myself deaf, so that I can come home and watch football all day.

Week 5 - Sunday, October 9

Philadelphia (1-3) at Buffalo (3-1), Philadelphia favored by 2 1/2

Do or die game for the "don't call us the Dream Team anymore" Eagles. That loss to the Niners sure was embarrassing. Blowing a 20 point lead to a team that came into the game averaging 3 yards a play? Deplorable. I still have faith that the Eagles, my preseason Super Bowl pick, can live up to the hype. Remember, the Miami Heat took some time to gel. That noise you heard last weekend was people jumping off the Bills bandwagon after they blew a 14 point lead to the Bungles. It turns out Buffalo fell for the trap game, and here I thought they were actually legit after their win over the Patriots. The schedule is very rough for the Bills for the next month and I think people will have to settle for the Lions if they want a feel good story. The Eagles will be without Jason Peters on the offensive line and Trent Cole on the defensive line. Those are key losses but desperate teams with talent usually win when they have to. I think Vick plays amazing, shreds the Bills defense and carries Philly to a much needed victory.

Prediction: Philadelphia 30, Buffalo 24

Kansas City (1-3) at Indianapolis (0-4), Indianapolis favored by 2 1/2

Not sure who in the world wants to watch this game. I would take apple picking over this game no questions asked. Curtis Painter looked somewhat competent in the Monday Night game, and at least appears to have some chemistry with his targets, unlike Kerry Collins. The Chiefs managed to get their first win by somehow finding a team that was worse than them in the Minnesota Vikings. The Colts have to win sometime, right? No better time than at home against sorry Kansas City.

Prediction: Indianapolis 23, Kansas City 15

Arizona (1-3) at Minnesota (0-4), Minnesota favored by 2 1/2

Another dreadful game, although at least this one has some star power. The Cardinals find new and exciting ways to lose each week, while the Vikings also found a different way to lose as at least last week they didn't blow a gigantic lead. Baby steps I suppose. If the Vikings fall to 0-5 you have to think that would be the end of the Donovan McNabb era but who knows. Just run Adrian Peterson 35 times and win the freaking game Vikings.

Prediction: Minnesota 21, Arizona 20

Seattle (1-3) at New York Giants (3-1), New York Giants favored by 10

The Giants were left for dead prior to the season starting after all the injuries to their defense. They laid an egg in the opener against the Redskins but have since reeled off three straight victories and are starting to get some of those injured players back. The Seahawks are dreadful on the road and I expect Tavaris Jackson to have a few fumbles, throw a few picks, you know, be himself.

Prediction: New York Giants 28, Seattle 13

Tennessee (3-1) at Pittsburgh (2-2), Pittsburgh favored by 6

When will Vegas get with the program that the Steelers aren't that good. Their wins come against teams with a combined record of 1-7, and their defense has been shredded by both Ray Rice and Arian Foster. Hell, Joseph Addai was having success running on them. Chris Johnson finally went over 100 yards last weekend, and should have a big game this weekend. The Titans appear to be for real and Matt Hasselbeck is playing like a guy that isn't ready to turn the reigns over to Jake Locker anytime soon. The Steelers are banged up and I may have to end up admitting that Warren Sapp was right about them after they drop this game.

Prediction: Tennessee 19, Pittsburgh 17

New Orleans (3-1) at Carolina (1-3), New Orleans favored by 6

Cam Newton has made the Carolina Panthers appointment viewing. That is an amazing feat in and of itself. The Panthers have been competitive in every game and you can tell that they are just one of those teams that once they learn how to win those close games, will be competing for a playoff spot. Unfortunately, that seems more likely to happen in either 2012 or 2013. Their defense can't stop anyone and after a quiet week last game, I expect Drew Brees to put up some huge numbers against the Panthers.

Prediction: New Orleans 34, Carolina 30

Cincinnati (2-2) at Jacksonville (1-3), Jacksonville favored by 2 1/2

It's the battle of the teams with the dwindling or non-existent fan bases! The Bengals have had a pretty easy schedule and with the Steelers sucking may have a chance at competing in the AFC North. I guess this game is sort of intriguing because its a battle of rookie quarterbacks. The Bengals Andy Dalton versus the Jaguars Blaine Gabbert. Oh, who am I kidding, this game blows.

Prediction: Cincinnati 17, Jacksonville 14

Oakland (2-2) at Houston (3-1), Houston favored by 6

Still not quite ready to believe in the Texans. We will really see what they are made of as they will be missing Andre Johnson for a few weeks. Matt Schaub isn't nearly as good as everyone has been fooled into thinking because of Johnson, so the Texans have to hope that Arian Foster is ready to stay healthy. He was fantastic last weekend, and I think he carries the Texans to another victory this weekend. This could be a good old fashioned NFL game where running the ball wins as Foster battles the Raiders Darren McFadden.

Prediction: Houston 24, Oakland 21

Tampa Bay (3-1) at San Francisco (3-1), San Francisco favored by 2 1/2

I am becoming cautiously optimistic about the 49ers finally returning to the playoffs after a 9 year absence. They have a chance this weekend to go up three games in the division. It won't come easy against the Bucs, who manhandled San Francisco at Candlestick last season, 21-0. I think things are different now that the Niners have not only a good motivator but someone that is a competent coach in Jim Harbaugh. It was nice to see Frank Gore finally get going but it remains to be seen if that was simply a product of the Eagles being atrocious on defense. The Niners offense has performed better at home and I am counting on that trend continuing for them to pick up their third straight win.

Prediction: San Francisco 20, Tampa Bay 17

San Diego (3-1) at Denver (1-3), San Diego favored by 4

So the Chargers finally covered against a crappy team. If they do it two weeks in a row then maybe I will finally start picking them to cover again. Their schedule has been ridiculously easy thus far. Their wins have come against opponents with a combined 1-11 record. We won't know anything more about them after they beat the crappy Broncos, but with Rivers struggling against these bad teams, it doesn't bode well for when the schedule picks up.

Prediction: San Diego 31, Denver 28

New York Jets (2-2) at New England (3-1), New England favored by 9 1/2

Revenge will be on the mind of the New England Patriots, while desperation is how the Jets feel. The Jets shocked the Patriots in the playoffs last season and then celebrated like they had won the Super Bowl. You know that probably didn't sit well with Belichick and company. The Jets have dropped two straight games and looked terrible in both of them. Against the Raiders the defense looked awful, while against the Ravens it was the offense's turn to be abysmal. The Jets chances rest on them re-assuming their identity of being a ground and pound team. This is not a team meant to have Sanchez dropping back to pass 35-40 times. Shonn Greene has to get something going on the ground, and if he can't the Jets need to give LaDainian Tomlinson or Joe McKnight a shot. If the Jets can't get the running game going, the Patriots will constantly be on offense and will shred the Jets. I think the Jets keep it interesting and hold the Patriots under 30 points, but it won't be enough.

Prediction: New England 24, New York Jets 17

Green Bay (4-0) at Atlanta (2-2), Green Bay favored by 5 1/2

Another playoff revenge game in the Sunday nighter. The Falcons were embarrassed at home last post-season when Aaron Rodgers went off on them and had probably the greatest performance of his career. The Falcons have been less than impressive through four games as evidenced by them nearly blowing a 20 point lead to a bad Seattle team. If Tavaris Jackson can light your defense up for over 300 yards, there is no telling what Rodgers will do to them. The Packers defense is still lagging well behind the offense and that will keep this game relatively close.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Atlanta 24

Monday, October 10

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (4-0), Detroit favored by 6

Monday Night Football returns to Detroit! Hank Williams won't be able to make the trip, he's playing golf with Obama or something. The Lions were once again down but for the second straight weekend not out, as they rallied to beat the Cowboys. Ford Field should be electric and it will be fun to watch how excited the players and fans will be now that Lions are truly relevant. Ndamukong Suh is going to eat Jay Cutler for breakfast, lunch, and dinner in this game. Nick Fairley may even get his first action of the season, and would bolster an already strong Lions defensive front. I am curious to see if Roy Williams makes his presence felt in his return to Detroit but most likely he will continue to be a waste of space. The old Lions would blow a game like this, but the old Lions wouldn't have come from behind the last two weeks. Detroit 5-0, yes, Detroit 5-0.

Prediction: Detroit 28, Chicago 17

Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 40-24

Last Week Against the Spread: 8-8
Overall Against the Spread: 33-29-2

Cram Session - Week 6

The Red River Rivalry, Shootout, whatever the heck it is called is the big game this weekend. Despite Bob Stoops saying he didn't really give a crap if Oklahoma continued playing Texas every year, fans of the Sooners and Longhorns would heartily disagree. Texas finally seems to have a quarterback, or I should say quarterbacks with David Ash and Case McCoy. The question is, can they rely on a freshman and a sophomore to upset big, bad Oklahoma?

Games That Matter to Me

Saturday, October 8

Ohio State (3-2, 0-1) at #14 Nebraska (4-1, 0-1)

I wasn't expecting a win at Wisconsin and I certainly thought it had a chance to get ugly, but man, that was an embarrassing night to be a Huskers fan. The reality is Nebraska can't compete with the best and haven't been able to compete with the best for a decade now. It is what it is I suppose. Now, they have their first Big 10, really 12, home game of the season against the scandal ridden Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes were hoping to get back RB Dan Herron and WR DeVier Posey for this game, but they were suspended an additional game for not being able to keep their hands out of the cookie jar, or at least being smart enough not to get caught. The Buckeyes are an absolute mess on offense and make Nebraska look like a powerhouse on that side of the ball. The Huskers troubles on defense this season are well documented, but if they allow the Buckeyes to push them around then I will be convinced that Bill Callahan is somehow back coaching this team and not the Pelini brothers. Taylor Martinez is the only chance Ohio State has of winning this game. He started off strong at Wisconsin, and then completely fell apart, throwing three crippling interceptions. He can't turn the ball over in this game. The Buckeyes have a strong defense and can force Martinez into mistakes. The Huskers can't get cute, stick to what they do best and do well, pound the ball down the Buckeyes throats. If they do that, they win by two touchdowns.

Prediction: Nebraska 28, Ohio State 14

Air Force (3-1) at Notre Dame (3-2)

Turns out I gave Purdue way too much credit. They weren't even in Notre Dame's league and that game was basically over when it started. Michael Floyd continues to make his case that he is the best receiver in the country. Tommy Rees was strong and the Irish finally went a game without a turnover. The only thing that went wrong for Notre Dame that night was Rees sister getting arrested for being drunk and disorderly. The Irish now welcome the Falcons, who are fresh off a thrilling rivalry win over Navy. Like the other military academies the Falcons love to run the ball and pass only when necessary. That plays right into the Irish's hands as they are very strong against the run. The Falcons best weapon is RB Asher Clark who is averaging a little over 9 yards a carry. He was a beast against Navy, rushing for 91 yards on 8 carries and scoring 2 touchdowns. The Falcons will hope to wear down the Irish with their ground attack, then choose their spots passing and hopefully hit something. I hope the Irish remain focused, just because they have won three in a row doesn't mean a thing. After an 0-2 start this season can still end up being a success as the only true game they would be an underdog in is at Stanford.

Prediction: Notre Dame 33, Air Force 24


Top 10 - Thursday, October 6

California (3-1, 0-1) at #9 Oregon (3-1, 1-0)

Oregon has been tearing through teams since getting stomped by a very good LSU team in Week 1. They have put up 69, 56, and 56 points in their last three games, all wins of course. The Golden Bears lost their first Pac-10 game on the road to Washington, so the odds of them going to Autzen and pulling out a win are slim. LaMichael James continues to shred defenses and I don't expect the Bears to do much to slow him down.

Prediction: Oregon 45, California 28

Friday, October 7

#5 Boise State (4-0) at Fresno State (2-3)

So I talk Kellen Moore up, basically guarantee he will have a great game against Nevada and he went out and laid an egg. It didn't matter as the Broncos still won handily in their revenge game against Nevada. Next up they travel to Fresno State. The Bulldogs aren't afraid to play anyone, but they couldn't even beat Ole Piss at home, no chance they win against Boise State.

Prediction: Boise State 42, Fresno State 20

Saturday, October 8

#17 Florida (4-1, 2-1) at #1 LSU (5-0, 2-0)

This game has lost a ton of luster with John Brantley being out for the Gators at quarterback. Brantley isn't an amazing or anything but he is a far better option than the overwhelmed freshman Jeff Driskel. The Gators running attack could get nothing going against the Tide and this weekend they face what may be an even better defense. The only thing that will keep this game from being a complete massacre is LSU's inability to do much on offense. Jordan Jefferson is back from his suspension and itching to play, so it will be interesting to watch if him and Jarrett Lee split duties.

Prediction: LSU 27, Florida 10

Vanderbilt (3-1, 1-1) at #2 Alabama (5-0, 2-0)

Bama was dominant in the Swamp and now gets the over matched Commodores at home. Their only possible slip up before the November 5th meeting with LSU is against Tennessee the week prior. Until then, they will continue to slaughter offenses and work to get better.

Prediction: Alabama 35, Vanderbilt 9

#3 Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0) at #11 Texas (4-0, 1-0)

I would love to be able to attend this game one year even though I don't like either team. Watching on TV it always seems like an awesome event and a good time. Texas fans are eager to proclaim the team back after last season's 5-7 nightmare. They certainly have looked better on offense since Garrett Gilbert was displaced. The Sooners are the far superior team when it comes to passing the ball but the Longhorns may be able to control the game with their running attack. Freshman Malcolm Brown is their main back but their goal line weapon is Foswhitt Whitaker, who has 4 touchdowns. Sooners QB Landry Jones has 10 touchdowns but is prone to mistakes as his 5 INTs will attest. Texas has to control clock and force Jones into mistakes. This game will be exciting but the Sooners are just a little bit better.

Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Texas 21

Kansas (2-2, 0-1) at #6 Oklahoma State (4-0, 1-0)

Oklahoma State made me look great by not only beating Texas A&M as I predicted but by beating them by one point as I also predicted. Kansas will make them look great this weekend as they don't believe in playing defense.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 57, Kansas 23

Colorado (1-4, 0-1) at #7 Stanford (4-0, 2-0)

What the hell happened to Colorado football? Dan Hawkins truly was a terrible coach there. The Buffaloes have been competitive this season but haven't been able to earn wins. The Cardinal, behind Andrew Luck continue to do what good teams do, beat up on inferior opponents. This weekend should be another comfortable win, but next weekend should present a challenge when they travel to Pullman to take on a rejuvenated Washington State team.

Prediction: Stanford 40, Colorado 15

Boston College (1-4, 0-2) at #8 Clemson (5-0, 2-0)

The Eagles are awful, how in the hell do you lose to Duke at home? Can't wait for Notre Dame to play them later this season. Clemson is most definitely for real after a 3 weeks stretch saw them beat Auburn, Florida State, and embarrass Virginia Tech. It is up to their coach Dabo Swinney to keep them level-headed and not start to read too much of their press clippings. They have the players to be a contender throughout the rest of the season, starting with a name you should get familiar with, their QB Tajh Boyd. Boyd has 14 TDs and just 2 INTs and is completing 61% of his passes. Even better news for the Tigers is he is just a sophomore.

Prediction: Clemson 28, Boston College 16

#15 Auburn (4-1, 2-0) at #10 Arkansas (4-1, 0-1)

The Auburn Tigers are another that made me look good, going on the road and beating highly overrated South Carolina. A lot of people were down on the Tigers because of how many starters they lost. That makes sense but I also thought that the Tigers had enough good players coming back, and the right amount of coaching to stay competitive. It doesn't get any easier this weekend as they now have to travel to Arkansas. The Razorbacks overcame a huge deficit to knock off Texas A&M but still need a win here to avoid an 0-2 start in SEC play. If this game was at Auburn I would go with the Tigers but home field is enough for me to pick Arkansas.

Prediction: Arkansas 28, Auburn 24

Last Week: 8-0!!!! (I have gone 17-0 my last two weeks)
Overall: 42-4