The Hail Mary - Week 4

Not a ton of exciting games in this weekend's schedule but the NFL usually never lacks for exciting theater. Watching Red Zone last weekend for the 1:00 games, it was awesome as just about every game came down to the wire. The highlight of this weekend is the Sunday Night game between the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets. Every Sunday night game thus far has been close and it should be no different this weekend.

Week 4 - Sunday, October 2

Carolina (1-2) at Chicago (1-2), Chicago favored by 6 1/2

It is starting to look like that Bears blowout of the Falcons wasn't nearly as impressive as it first appeared. The Falcons are just 1-2 and haven't looked good at all, and the Bears have stumbled since that game, losing by double digits in each of their losses. This is the first game the Bears have been favored in this year, and it doesn't look nearly as easy as it appeared when September began. Cam Newton and the Panthers have shown fight through the first three weeks. Newton finally came back down to Earth against Jacksonville last weekend but he was able to overcome a monsoon and help lead the Panthers to victory. Jay Cutler is just hoping he survives another week behind his leaky offensive line. The Bears need to let their entire offense revolved around Matt Forte. He is clearly their best player and is a dual threat running and catching the ball. He is also on my fantasy team but that's neither here nor there.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Carolina 16

Buffalo (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2), Buffalo favored by 3

All I could do was shake my head in disbelief as the Buffalo Bills overcame a 21-0 deficit against the New England Patriots. Never in a million years did I expect that to happen. The Bills don't like to start games until the second half and they need to figure that out, as that formula won't work for them all season. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the Bills started 4-0 in 2008 and ended up 7-9. Some think that this will be a let down game for the Bills and that is certainly possible. However, Andy Dalton and the Bengals were dreadful last weekend and I don't think they can be the team to hand the Bills their first loss.

Prediction: Buffalo 28, Cincinnati 14

Tennessee (2-1) at Cleveland (2-1), Cleveland favored by 1 1/2

Is Matt Hasselbeck on steroids? That isn't a serious question but he must have gone into a time machine because he is playing the best football of his career since 2005 when he led the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. Hasselebeck seemed on the down turn of his career plus he was going to have to learn a whole new offense. Those haven't proven to be pitfalls so far but things got a little harder with Kenny Britt now being out for the season. The Browns are 2-1 and probably should be 3-0 had they not laid an egg at home in Week 1 against the Bengals. They managed to win without RB Peyton Hillis last weekend and will get him back for this game as his sore throat has cleared up. I think even without Britt the Titans are the better team and I also think that Chris Johnson may finally score a TD or break 100 yards in this game.

Prediction: Tennessee 23, Cleveland 17

Detroit (3-0) at Dallas (2-1), Dallas favored by 1 1/2

Despite the worst efforts of their center Phil Costa, the Cowboys managed to beat the Redskins. Tony Romo was absolutely amazing, incredible ZOMG in playing through injuries because that never happens in the NFL. The Lions were doing exactly what I thought they would against the Vikings, being Minnesota's bitch in the Metrodome. Then things flipped and the Lions showed that things will be different this season. If Stafford and Calvin Johnson can remain healthy both will be Pro Bowlers at the end of the season. I think Romo is going to take a pounding from the Lions defense, and I don't think the Cowboys can slow down the Lions offense. Detroit and Buffalo 4-0? What a strange, strange world.

Prediction: Detroit 27, Dallas 23

Minnesota (0-3) at Kansas City (0-3), Minnesota favored by 1 1/2

I hope the Vikings are losing this game at halftime, maybe that is the secret to them earning their first victory. There certainly is no advantage to them having a double digit lead at halftime. You would think when you have one of the best running backs in football that a lead would be safe, but if you don't use Adrian Peterson and instead rely on Donovan McNubb, second half collapses happen. If the Vikings can't beat the piss poor Chiefs then its time to start developing a young quarterback, be it Joe Webb or Christian Ponder.

Prediction: Minnesota 19, Kansas City 14

Washington (2-1) at St. Louis (0-3), Line is Even

Well it's obvious Vegas thinks very little of the Redskins, making this a pick em game against the winless Rams. However, its not like the Redskins have given Vegas much reason to insert them as the favorite. The Skins have always had trouble with the Rams, including last season when they were basically dominated by St. Louis. That loss ended up not looking as bad once the season ended as the Rams actually finished with a better record than the Skins. The Skins have to be ready to play, no game is a gimme game for them. They can't just walk in, show up, and expect to win. Let the fans think nonsense like that but the players have to be ready to play. Monday night's loss was tough to swallow, but this game against St. Louis and how Washington responds will say a lot about them as a team. Also, if Tim Hightower is doing next to nothing again, can Roy Helu please get some more touches? Hell, bring back Ryan Torain's corpse and let him run it a few times. St. Louis is banged up and not feeling too great about themselves right now, especially QB Sam Bradford, who without a running game has been left out on an island. The Skins will make it interesting because that is what they do, but I think this team is different and they win.

Prediction: Washington 20, St. Louis 17

San Francisco (2-1) at Philadelphia (1-2), Philadelphia favored by 9

That Eagles performance against the Giants was shocking. I thought even without Vick they were clearly better than the Giants and could handle their business. They struggled with Vick in the game, came back, then with Vick out the Giants sealed the down. The defense is looking like a defense that is coached by a guy that was an offensive line coach last season. That being said it isn't time to panic for the Eagles. They brought in a lot of new pieces and it takes time for those pieces to come together. Now, if they lose to the 49ers, who are averaging barely over 3 yards per play, then they can panic. The Niners needs just 5 more wins to wrap up the NFC West!

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, San Francisco 17

New Orleans (2-1) at Jacksonville (1-2), New Orleans favored by 7

Blaine Gabbert was okay in his debut and this will obviously be a season of growing pains for him and the Jaguars. The Saints offense remains explosive, while questions abound about the defense. If the Saints are lit up by a rookie QB making his second start, it might to be time to panic in N'awlins.

Prediction: New Orleans 35, Jacksonville 17

Pittsburgh (2-1) at Houston (2-1), Houston favored by 3 1/2

Still not sure what to make of either of these teams. The Steelers two wins have come against dog crap teams, and they really struggled to beat the Colts. The Texans looked poised to upset the Saints and convince me that they had arrived but in typical Texans fashion they choked away the game. The Steelers haven't looked right on offense yet. Ben Roethlisberger has made some dumb throws and Rashard Mendenhall hasn't gotten on track. The Texans expect Arian Foster back in this game, but I would be shocked if he makes much of an impact since he has seen very little action this season. All signs point to this being a Houston win but the past indicates that's a sign to pick against the Texans.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 21, Houston 20

New York Giants (2-1) at Arizona (1-2), New York Giants favored by 2

The Giants were impressive in dismantling the Eagles, there is no denying that. I still am not sure that the Giants are any good though. I guess I can't get the fact that Redskins manhandled them in Week 1 out of my head. I also probably still overvalue the Cardinals. I did pick them to win the NFC West and they have shown flashes. But losing at Seattle and putting up just 10 points was not a good sign. This is probably another pick I will regret but I feel like Arizona is a different team at home. I think the good Cardinals will show up Sunday, and mistake prone Eli returns, leading to a Cardinals win.

Prediction: Arizona 23, New York Giants 19

Atlanta (1-2) at Seattle (1-2), Atlanta favored by 4 1/2

This is a must win for the Falcons. They haven't shown much this year and a loss to a bad Seahawks team may doom them. Their offensive line has struggled mightily to protect Ryan, and Michael Turner hasn't done enough on the ground to stop teams from bum rushing Ryan. The Seahawks managed a win at home, as they often do but they still have Tavaris Jackson as their quarterback. Sidney Rice looked good in his return to action but the question is how long until he is hurt again?

Prediction: Atlanta 21, Seattle 17

Denver (1-2) at Green Bay (3-0), Green Bay favored by 13

This line feels high to me. The Packers look like the best team in the league but they haven't blown anyone out yet. While the Broncos are just 1-2 they have been competitive in every game. I don't think this game will go down to the wire or anything but I expect the Broncos to at least make it respectable.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Denver 21

Miami (0-3) at San Diego (2-1), San Diego favored by 7 1/2

The Dolphins loss to the Browns was heart breaking. They had the lead most of the game, time was running out and then the Browns managed a ridiculous throw and catch to get the win. Tony Sparano's days seem numbered as the losses continue to pile up. The Chargers managed to let the Chiefs hang around, mostly because they are coached by Norv Turner and will always underachieve as long as the is the head guy. Philip Rivers has gotten off to a slow start, which is odd because he has his full complement of receivers, although he certainly misses Antonio Gates. The Chargers will let Miami hang around and knowing the Dolphins they will probably lose in some ridiculous fashion.

Prediction: San Diego 26, Miami 20

New York Jets (2-1) at Baltimore (2-1), Baltimore favored by 3 1/2

The Jets defense has been pushed around 2 out of the 3 weeks of the season. It has really been shocking to watch. The Raiders had no problem running it down the Jets throats. What hurts worse for the Jets is the offense has performed very well. If the defense played to its usual form the Jets would be getting talked about as the best team in the league. The Ravens righted the ship against a bad St. Louis team, but I still think the Ravens are somewhere in the middle of the team that killed the Steelers and lost to the Titans. This is a statement game for the Jets defense. Rex Ryan has probably been beating it into their heads all week about how they are being disrespected. I expect the defense to play better but Baltimore is a really tough place to win.

Prediction: Baltimore 20, New York Jets 16

Monday, October 3

Indianapolis (0-3) at Tampa Bay (2-1), Tampa Bay favored by 10

Curtis Painter finally has his chance, much to Reggie Wayne's excitement. This whole Peyton Manning thing sucks but what makes it even worse is the Colts are going to ruin so many prime time games this season. This game will probably be pretty boring and I don't anticipate watching much of it unless the Colts manage to keep it close. Not much to say about Tampa Bay, except where has Mike Williams disappeared to? You need to start playing Mike, people are counting on you!

Prediction: Tampa Bay 22, Indianapolis 13

Last Week Straight Up: 9-7
Overall Straight Up: 29-19

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-6
Overall Against the Spread: 25-21-2