The Hail Mary - Week 3

I am not sure I have ever had as much trouble picking games as I had picking them this week. There are a ton of games this weekend between mediocre teams or teams where I am not sure whether they are for real or not. However, I know that my faithful band of 30+ readers expects me to have these picks, so I went forth and conquered.

Week 3 - Sunday, September 25

New England (2-0) at Buffalo (2-0), New England favored by 9

The media has been hyping this game up as Buffalo's chance to prove themselves. They have lost 15 straight games to the Patriots. 15 straight! The Bills are 2-0 but excuse me if I don't want to crown them because they beat a sorry Chiefs team and had to make a furious comeback to beat an average Raiders team. Tom Brady had another huge passing game and continues to make quarterbacking look way too easy. The Bills defense let Jason Campbell light them up, Brady is going to have a field day.

Prediction: New England 31, Buffalo 17

San Francisco (1-1) at Cincinnati (1-1), Cincinnati favored by 2 1/2

The 49ers will recognize a lot of faces on the Bengals defense. Manny Lawson, Nate Clements, and Taylor Mays were all with the 49ers last season and now are on the Bengals. This is one of those games I was having a hard time picking. The Bengals look better than I expected, with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green developing a chemistry quicker than expected. However, I still am not buying the Bengals are anything more than a 4 win team. This is a game the Niners should win, but you never know with Alex Smith back there.

Prediction: San Francisco 21, Cincinnati 19

Miami (0-2) at Cleveland (1-1), Cleveland favored by 2 1/2

The Dolphins are ecstatic to be going on the road. They have lost 9 of their last 10 home games, but went 6-2 away from Pro Player Sun Life Joe Robbie Stadium last year. They just seem to play better on the road, including the defense, which has been awful, and Chad Henne, who reverted to his awful form last weekend. I still can't get the Browns losing at home to Cincinnati out of my head. I like the Dolphins in the mini upset.

Prediction: Miami 23, Cleveland 21

Denver (1-1) at Tennessee (1-1), Tennessee favored by 7

More mediocre teams that you don't really know what to make of. The Titans were impressive in blowing out Baltimore. Matt Hasselbeck shredded the Ravens overrated defense. Chris Johnson is still under performing and you know Titans fans are crossing their fingers this isn't a Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson story about to play out. You know, where the running back holds out for more money, gets paid and then his career falls apart. If Johnson can't get it going against a porous Broncos defense, then there will be some cause for concern.

Prediction: Tennessee 27, Denver 24

Detroit (2-0) at Minnesota (0-2), Detroit favored by 3 1/2

The Lions are 2-0!!!! Detroit fans everywhere are losing their minds. I'm still not buying. You know how I will start buying it? Go to Minnesota on Sunday and beat the Vikings. The Lions never win in Minnesota. The Vikings have been the best first half team in football, but unfortunately have been the worst second half team in football. The Lions have cured their ills in the past, why not one more time?

Prediction: Minnesota 24, Detroit 21

Houston (2-0) at New Orleans (1-1), New Orleans favored by 4

No team has had a tougher schedule to start the season then the Saints. This week they welcome the 2-0 Texans to the Superdome. I hope Texan fans are keeping their 2-0 start in perspective. They started 2-0 last season, then the bottom fell out and they went 4-10 to finish the season. They have no excuses this year as the AFC South is a complete dumpster fire. Wade Phillips has already seemed to have an effect on the defense but playing Kerry Collins and Chad Henne won't have them ready for the firepower of Drew Brees.

Prediction: New Orleans 28, Houston 17

New York Giants (1-1) at Philadelphia (1-1), NO LINE

No line available on this game because of the uncertain status of Mike Vick. All indications are that Vick will play, and will even have Kevlar padding in his helmet. The Giants got a win Monday night, but it was a loss for all of America. What a boring game. The Eagles have looked unstoppable with Vick in the game, especially the offense. Vick plays this entire game and the Eagles will roll.

Prediction: Philadelphia 30, New York Giants 20

Jacksonville (1-1) at Carolina (0-2), Carolina favored by 3 1/2

It's the battle of the rookie quarterbacks, the Panthers Cam Newton versus the Jaguars Blaine Gabbert. Could Jack Del Rio be any more of a buffoon? Three weeks ago it was "we believe in Luke McCown, he can win games, blah, blah, I'm talking out my ass." Now not even three games into the season and he has already made the switch. Either he has tremendous job security or this was a move pushed by ownership because David Garrard would have given him the best chance to win games. Newton threw for over 400 yards again, which is impressive, but somehow his 3 interceptions against the Packers got lost in the conversation. Those type of rookie mistakes are bound to happen, but it is annoying that the media just glossed over it in their attempt to create another star. I'm not willing to say Newton will throw for 400 again but I expect him to have limited mistakes against a poor Jags defense and get his first win as an NFL starter.

Prediction: Carolina 26, Jacksonville 14

New York Jets (2-0) at Oakland (1-1), New York Jets favored by 3 1/2

This game will come down to just how big a loss Nick Mangold is for the Jets. There is no denying it will have an effect but will it completely derail the offense? I am willing to bet that it slows it down, but the Jets defense picks up the slack. I could see this game having nothing but field goals and the team with the ball last winning.

Prediction: New York Jets 18, Oakland 15

Baltimore (1-1) at St. Louis (0-2), Baltimore favored by 3 1/2

I hope no one crowned the Ravens after Week 1, because the team that showed up in Week 2 was more the team I was expecting. The Ravens are an okay team, nothing more, nothing less. They are getting old on defense, and aren't nearly as intimidating as they used to be. That being said, the Rams are a mess. Their banged up on offense and they are a team that is very young and prone to things like dropped passes and penalties. I think Ray Rice will shred the Rams defense and the Ravens win comfortably.

Prediction: Baltimore 27, St. Louis 14

Kansas City (0-2) at San Diego (1-1), San Diego favored by 14 1/2

What can you say about the Chiefs? I already expected them to take a step back but then they lose Tony Moeaki, Jamaal Charles, and Eric Berry for the season? They are snake bitten. I am usually wary of picking teams to cover spreads this high, but the Chiefs have lost by 34 and 45 points in their first two games, it would be pretty ridiculous to pick them to cover a 14 1/2 spread at this point. I will at least say they make it respectable and lose by just 21 points this weekend.

Prediction: San Diego 35, Kansas City 14

Green Bay (2-0) at Chicago (1-1), Green Bay favored by 3 1/2

The storied rivalry is also a rematch of last year's NFC Championship game. The Bears are on track to have Jay Cutler decapitated by Week 6 and Cutler even admitted as much this past week. The Packers have been less than impressive on defense, and lost S Nick Collins for the season. They did show some nice resolve coming back from a 13-0 deficit at Carolina last week. The offense is still as powerful as ever, but I think they will be slowed by the Bears defense. Aaron Rodgers has always seemed to struggle against the Bears. However, Cutler never plays that well against the Packers either, the Packers are a better team than the Bears, therefore the Packers win.

Prediction: Green Bay 21, Chicago 17

Arizona (1-1) at Seattle (0-2), Arizona favored by 3

The Seahawks look terrible but after this game we will know just how terrible they truly are. No matter how bad, the Seahawks usually have a distinct advantage at home. If they are as bad as I think they are, that advantage will be reduced to nothing this season.

Prediction: Arizona 27, Seattle 13

Atlanta (1-1) at Tampa Bay (1-1), Tampa Bay favored by 1 1/2

I'm still not sure what to make of the Falcons. They were mostly outplayed by Philadelphia and were very lucky to escape an 0-2 start. Same thing goes for the Buccaneers who had to overcome a large deficit to avoid falling to 0-2. These teams aren't far apart so that will make this game a close one. I like the Falcons offense to make a few more plays than the Bucs.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 23

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Indianapolis (0-2), Pittsburgh favored by 10 1/2

A month ago this game would have been the top game of the weekend. Without Peyton Manning, it has me questioning if I will even watch. I though with all that talent, that even without Peyton the Colts could still be competitive. However, a loss at home to the poo poo Browns is all I need to see to know that without Pey Pey the Colts are screwed. Were any of these guys even good or was it really all Manning? I almost want the Steelers to keep playing well so they can shutup that lardo Warren Sapp who proclaimed them done after one week.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 30, Indianapolis 13

Monday, September 26

Washington (2-0) at Dallas (1-1), NO LINE

I have gone back and forth on this game all week. I decided that if Tony Romo or Dez Bryant didn't play that I would definitely pick the Redskins. But it appears that even though both will be playing hurt and thus open to easily being re-injured that both Romo and Bryant should play. It will certainly help the Redskins that Miles Austin is out but with Romo having Bryant and Jason Whitten at his disposal, I still think the Cowboys passing game can have their way with the Skins defense. I also worry about Rex Grossman avoiding turnovers and the Redskins ability to slow down DeMarcus Ware. Ware could make Grossman's life a living hell and force him into fumbles and bad throws. If this game were in Washington I'd be more inclined to pick the Skins, but I just don't see a win Monday night. I hope I'm wrong.

Prediction: Dallas 28, Washington 24


Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 20-12

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-9-1
Overall Against the Spread: 15-15-2