The Hail Mary - Week 4

Not a ton of exciting games in this weekend's schedule but the NFL usually never lacks for exciting theater. Watching Red Zone last weekend for the 1:00 games, it was awesome as just about every game came down to the wire. The highlight of this weekend is the Sunday Night game between the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets. Every Sunday night game thus far has been close and it should be no different this weekend.

Week 4 - Sunday, October 2

Carolina (1-2) at Chicago (1-2), Chicago favored by 6 1/2

It is starting to look like that Bears blowout of the Falcons wasn't nearly as impressive as it first appeared. The Falcons are just 1-2 and haven't looked good at all, and the Bears have stumbled since that game, losing by double digits in each of their losses. This is the first game the Bears have been favored in this year, and it doesn't look nearly as easy as it appeared when September began. Cam Newton and the Panthers have shown fight through the first three weeks. Newton finally came back down to Earth against Jacksonville last weekend but he was able to overcome a monsoon and help lead the Panthers to victory. Jay Cutler is just hoping he survives another week behind his leaky offensive line. The Bears need to let their entire offense revolved around Matt Forte. He is clearly their best player and is a dual threat running and catching the ball. He is also on my fantasy team but that's neither here nor there.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Carolina 16

Buffalo (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2), Buffalo favored by 3

All I could do was shake my head in disbelief as the Buffalo Bills overcame a 21-0 deficit against the New England Patriots. Never in a million years did I expect that to happen. The Bills don't like to start games until the second half and they need to figure that out, as that formula won't work for them all season. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the Bills started 4-0 in 2008 and ended up 7-9. Some think that this will be a let down game for the Bills and that is certainly possible. However, Andy Dalton and the Bengals were dreadful last weekend and I don't think they can be the team to hand the Bills their first loss.

Prediction: Buffalo 28, Cincinnati 14

Tennessee (2-1) at Cleveland (2-1), Cleveland favored by 1 1/2

Is Matt Hasselbeck on steroids? That isn't a serious question but he must have gone into a time machine because he is playing the best football of his career since 2005 when he led the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. Hasselebeck seemed on the down turn of his career plus he was going to have to learn a whole new offense. Those haven't proven to be pitfalls so far but things got a little harder with Kenny Britt now being out for the season. The Browns are 2-1 and probably should be 3-0 had they not laid an egg at home in Week 1 against the Bengals. They managed to win without RB Peyton Hillis last weekend and will get him back for this game as his sore throat has cleared up. I think even without Britt the Titans are the better team and I also think that Chris Johnson may finally score a TD or break 100 yards in this game.

Prediction: Tennessee 23, Cleveland 17

Detroit (3-0) at Dallas (2-1), Dallas favored by 1 1/2

Despite the worst efforts of their center Phil Costa, the Cowboys managed to beat the Redskins. Tony Romo was absolutely amazing, incredible ZOMG in playing through injuries because that never happens in the NFL. The Lions were doing exactly what I thought they would against the Vikings, being Minnesota's bitch in the Metrodome. Then things flipped and the Lions showed that things will be different this season. If Stafford and Calvin Johnson can remain healthy both will be Pro Bowlers at the end of the season. I think Romo is going to take a pounding from the Lions defense, and I don't think the Cowboys can slow down the Lions offense. Detroit and Buffalo 4-0? What a strange, strange world.

Prediction: Detroit 27, Dallas 23

Minnesota (0-3) at Kansas City (0-3), Minnesota favored by 1 1/2

I hope the Vikings are losing this game at halftime, maybe that is the secret to them earning their first victory. There certainly is no advantage to them having a double digit lead at halftime. You would think when you have one of the best running backs in football that a lead would be safe, but if you don't use Adrian Peterson and instead rely on Donovan McNubb, second half collapses happen. If the Vikings can't beat the piss poor Chiefs then its time to start developing a young quarterback, be it Joe Webb or Christian Ponder.

Prediction: Minnesota 19, Kansas City 14

Washington (2-1) at St. Louis (0-3), Line is Even

Well it's obvious Vegas thinks very little of the Redskins, making this a pick em game against the winless Rams. However, its not like the Redskins have given Vegas much reason to insert them as the favorite. The Skins have always had trouble with the Rams, including last season when they were basically dominated by St. Louis. That loss ended up not looking as bad once the season ended as the Rams actually finished with a better record than the Skins. The Skins have to be ready to play, no game is a gimme game for them. They can't just walk in, show up, and expect to win. Let the fans think nonsense like that but the players have to be ready to play. Monday night's loss was tough to swallow, but this game against St. Louis and how Washington responds will say a lot about them as a team. Also, if Tim Hightower is doing next to nothing again, can Roy Helu please get some more touches? Hell, bring back Ryan Torain's corpse and let him run it a few times. St. Louis is banged up and not feeling too great about themselves right now, especially QB Sam Bradford, who without a running game has been left out on an island. The Skins will make it interesting because that is what they do, but I think this team is different and they win.

Prediction: Washington 20, St. Louis 17

San Francisco (2-1) at Philadelphia (1-2), Philadelphia favored by 9

That Eagles performance against the Giants was shocking. I thought even without Vick they were clearly better than the Giants and could handle their business. They struggled with Vick in the game, came back, then with Vick out the Giants sealed the down. The defense is looking like a defense that is coached by a guy that was an offensive line coach last season. That being said it isn't time to panic for the Eagles. They brought in a lot of new pieces and it takes time for those pieces to come together. Now, if they lose to the 49ers, who are averaging barely over 3 yards per play, then they can panic. The Niners needs just 5 more wins to wrap up the NFC West!

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, San Francisco 17

New Orleans (2-1) at Jacksonville (1-2), New Orleans favored by 7

Blaine Gabbert was okay in his debut and this will obviously be a season of growing pains for him and the Jaguars. The Saints offense remains explosive, while questions abound about the defense. If the Saints are lit up by a rookie QB making his second start, it might to be time to panic in N'awlins.

Prediction: New Orleans 35, Jacksonville 17

Pittsburgh (2-1) at Houston (2-1), Houston favored by 3 1/2

Still not sure what to make of either of these teams. The Steelers two wins have come against dog crap teams, and they really struggled to beat the Colts. The Texans looked poised to upset the Saints and convince me that they had arrived but in typical Texans fashion they choked away the game. The Steelers haven't looked right on offense yet. Ben Roethlisberger has made some dumb throws and Rashard Mendenhall hasn't gotten on track. The Texans expect Arian Foster back in this game, but I would be shocked if he makes much of an impact since he has seen very little action this season. All signs point to this being a Houston win but the past indicates that's a sign to pick against the Texans.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 21, Houston 20

New York Giants (2-1) at Arizona (1-2), New York Giants favored by 2

The Giants were impressive in dismantling the Eagles, there is no denying that. I still am not sure that the Giants are any good though. I guess I can't get the fact that Redskins manhandled them in Week 1 out of my head. I also probably still overvalue the Cardinals. I did pick them to win the NFC West and they have shown flashes. But losing at Seattle and putting up just 10 points was not a good sign. This is probably another pick I will regret but I feel like Arizona is a different team at home. I think the good Cardinals will show up Sunday, and mistake prone Eli returns, leading to a Cardinals win.

Prediction: Arizona 23, New York Giants 19

Atlanta (1-2) at Seattle (1-2), Atlanta favored by 4 1/2

This is a must win for the Falcons. They haven't shown much this year and a loss to a bad Seahawks team may doom them. Their offensive line has struggled mightily to protect Ryan, and Michael Turner hasn't done enough on the ground to stop teams from bum rushing Ryan. The Seahawks managed a win at home, as they often do but they still have Tavaris Jackson as their quarterback. Sidney Rice looked good in his return to action but the question is how long until he is hurt again?

Prediction: Atlanta 21, Seattle 17

Denver (1-2) at Green Bay (3-0), Green Bay favored by 13

This line feels high to me. The Packers look like the best team in the league but they haven't blown anyone out yet. While the Broncos are just 1-2 they have been competitive in every game. I don't think this game will go down to the wire or anything but I expect the Broncos to at least make it respectable.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Denver 21

Miami (0-3) at San Diego (2-1), San Diego favored by 7 1/2

The Dolphins loss to the Browns was heart breaking. They had the lead most of the game, time was running out and then the Browns managed a ridiculous throw and catch to get the win. Tony Sparano's days seem numbered as the losses continue to pile up. The Chargers managed to let the Chiefs hang around, mostly because they are coached by Norv Turner and will always underachieve as long as the is the head guy. Philip Rivers has gotten off to a slow start, which is odd because he has his full complement of receivers, although he certainly misses Antonio Gates. The Chargers will let Miami hang around and knowing the Dolphins they will probably lose in some ridiculous fashion.

Prediction: San Diego 26, Miami 20

New York Jets (2-1) at Baltimore (2-1), Baltimore favored by 3 1/2

The Jets defense has been pushed around 2 out of the 3 weeks of the season. It has really been shocking to watch. The Raiders had no problem running it down the Jets throats. What hurts worse for the Jets is the offense has performed very well. If the defense played to its usual form the Jets would be getting talked about as the best team in the league. The Ravens righted the ship against a bad St. Louis team, but I still think the Ravens are somewhere in the middle of the team that killed the Steelers and lost to the Titans. This is a statement game for the Jets defense. Rex Ryan has probably been beating it into their heads all week about how they are being disrespected. I expect the defense to play better but Baltimore is a really tough place to win.

Prediction: Baltimore 20, New York Jets 16

Monday, October 3

Indianapolis (0-3) at Tampa Bay (2-1), Tampa Bay favored by 10

Curtis Painter finally has his chance, much to Reggie Wayne's excitement. This whole Peyton Manning thing sucks but what makes it even worse is the Colts are going to ruin so many prime time games this season. This game will probably be pretty boring and I don't anticipate watching much of it unless the Colts manage to keep it close. Not much to say about Tampa Bay, except where has Mike Williams disappeared to? You need to start playing Mike, people are counting on you!

Prediction: Tampa Bay 22, Indianapolis 13

Last Week Straight Up: 9-7
Overall Straight Up: 29-19

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-6
Overall Against the Spread: 25-21-2

Cram Session - Week 5

The two biggest games of the weekend take place at 8 PM. There will be many people switching back and forth between Nebraska/Wisconsin and Alabama/Florida. This is when college football is at its best. The cupcakes get pushed aside and the best conferences finally start having their teams match up. For Nebraska it is the start of a new era and the Big Ten couldn't have made it any more difficult then sending them to Wisconsin for a prime time game.

Game That Matters to Me

Notre Dame (2-2) at Purdue (2-1)

Sometimes you take a win any way you can get it, no matter how ugly it is. That is what Notre Dame did at Pittsburgh last weekend. The offense struggled all day, especially turnover machine QB Tommy Rees. However, Rees came up big at the end of the game when needed and the Irish climbed back to .500. The Irish are back on the road at Purdue, and a win here could set them up nicely for their upcoming next 3 games at home. Purdue is likely to go with dual quarterbacks in this game. The starter will be Caleb TerBush but Robert Marve is back from injury and is expected to see some time. Purdue's strength is their ground game. They average 258.7 yards per game, good enough for 10th in the country. The last few weeks teams have really struggled to run the ball on Notre Dame. Purdue will have to get something going on the ground behind Ralph Bolden or Akeem Shavers, and TerBush is also a threat to run the ball. Justin Siller is the Boilermakers leading receiver but Purdue only goes to the pass when need be. It would be nice if the Irish could finally have a game where they win the turnover battle. Purdue might be the team to do that against. They barely beat Middle Tennessee at home and lost at Rice. This is a team Notre Dame should beat, and beat rather handily, no matter when and where the game is played.

Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Purdue 21


Top 10 - Saturday, October 1

Kentucky (2-2, 0-1) at #1 LSU (4-0, 1-0)

LSU dominated their brutal September stretch and were rewarded by becoming the #1 team in the country. They get a one week break as the awful Wildcats come to Baton Rouge. LSU better enjoy this weekend, because next weekend the Gators come to town.

Prediction: LSU 42, Kentucky 9

Ball State (3-1) at #2 Oklahoma (3-0)

The Sooners scuffled a bit against Missouri at home, falling behind 14-3 early, before turning on the jets and getting the victory. The scuffling was enough though for people to promptly forget they beat Florida State the weekend before and proclaim it a two team race between Alabama and LSU. I'm not ready to cast aside the Sooners that quickly. A win over Ball State won't change anyone 's mind but next weekend is the Red River Shootout against Texas, where the Sooners can repair them image.

Prediction: Oklahoma 41, Ball State 13

#3 Alabama (4-0, 1-0) at #12 Florida (4-0, 2-0)

Will Muschamp faces his first true test as Gators coach. He did have to deal with Tennessee two weeks ago, but the Vols are a shell of their former selves. Through four games the Gators have looked unstoppable running the ball. The man behind that is the certifiably insane Chris Rainey. Rainey has rushed for over 100 yards his last three games. Bama will also have to watch him on the receiving end. He is the Gators leading receiver as well and can break off big plays that way too, as seen against the Vols when he had an 83-yard TD catch. Florida QB John Brantley has been serviceable so far, but if the Tide slow down Rainey, he will have to make a play or two. Gator nation will be holding their collective breaths if that happens. As for Alabama, they have a similar philosophy as Florida. Play ball control on offense and pound teams in submission with their running game. While Rainey does it with finesse, Trent Richardson does it with power running. The Tide have also given Eddie Lacy more time now that the backfield is less crowded with Mark Ingram in the NFL. This game will be very old school, both teams trying to dictate the tempo to one another and the team that is more successful running and stopping the run, will win. The Swamp will be rocking but Bama is just too good.

Prediction: Alabama 30, Florida 20

Nevada (1-2) at #4 Boise State (3-0)

REVENGE!!! The last two weeks teams have gotten revenge in their revenge games. The Huskers beat the Huskies, and the Sooners beat Missouri. Now Boise State will try to avenge their heartbreaking loss last season at Nevada. That loss kept Boise out of the BCS championship game, and the BCS altogether. Nevada no longer has Colin Kaepernick at QB and the shock of that showed in their opening loss disaster at Oreon. They have played more competitively since then and nearly knocked off Texas Tech last weekend. This is the last of their four road games to open the season. Kellen Moore continues to be outstanding and I expect another scintillating performance from him in this game.

Prediction: Boise State 45, Nevada 23

UCLA (2-2, 1-1) at #6 Stanford (3-0, 1-0)

The Cardinal had a week off and now return to biding their time until they travel to USC on October 29th. They get dead man walking Rick Neuheisal and UCLA this weekend at home. UCLA stopped the bleeding a bit with a win against Oregon State next week but the calls for Neuheisel's head will probably return after Andrew Luck and the Cardinal blow out the Bruins Saturday night.

Prediction: Stanford 40, UCLA 14

#8 Nebraska (4-0, 0-0) at #7 Wisconsin (4-0, 0-0)

As a Huskers fan I have been both dreading and looking forward to this game. I am excited for Nebraska to start their Big 10 (really 12) era and for them to start a bunch of new rivalries. However, I am dreading what could happen under the lights against a very good Wisconsin team. The Badgers have been awesome through four games. Now, it remains to be seen how much that means as they have played a bunch of loser bums. Nebraska hasn't faced a murderer's row in their first four but Washington and Wyoming are far better than anything Wisconsin has seen. Nebraska's defense has struggled and trying to slow down Badgers quarterback Russell Wilson will be one of their bigger tests in the last few seasons. Other offensive players that have be on the Huskers radar are RBs Montee Ball and James White, as well as WR Nick Toon (is he related to Al Toon?). The Huskers have slowed down highly touted QBs in the past but this year's defense hasn't shown the form to inspire confidence that will happen again. The offense has been putting up plenty of points and will have to in this game for Nebraska to win. Nebraska obviously has to establish the run with Rex Burkhead and also open up spaces for Taylor Martinez to use his most dangerous weapon, his legs. People waiting for Martinez to become a passing quarterback shouldn't hold their breath. It can be argued whether that is necessary for him to take Nebraska to a championship level but for now he is what he is. Bo Pelini has helped make Nebraska relevant again but he is still searching for that signature win. The Huskers have come up small in big spots like these for the past decade, so the fan base is naturally not feeling so confident about Saturday night. I hope I am wrong.

Prediction: Wisconsin 34, Nebraska 21

Auburn (3-1, 1-0) at #10 South Carolina (4-0, 2-0)

I really want South Carolina to lose a game. They have a dreadful QB in Stephen Garcia and no one with a brain really thinks they are one of the ten best teams in the country. I predicted 9-3 for Auburn before the season and was called crazy. I might be crazy but I am sticking with the Tigers enough to expect them to pull the upset. Garcia can't keep making mistakes week after week and expecting Marcus Lattimore and his defense to bail him out.

Prediction: Auburn 31, South Carolina 30

Last Week: 9-0!!!!
Overall: 34-4

The Hail Mary - Week 3

I am not sure I have ever had as much trouble picking games as I had picking them this week. There are a ton of games this weekend between mediocre teams or teams where I am not sure whether they are for real or not. However, I know that my faithful band of 30+ readers expects me to have these picks, so I went forth and conquered.

Week 3 - Sunday, September 25

New England (2-0) at Buffalo (2-0), New England favored by 9

The media has been hyping this game up as Buffalo's chance to prove themselves. They have lost 15 straight games to the Patriots. 15 straight! The Bills are 2-0 but excuse me if I don't want to crown them because they beat a sorry Chiefs team and had to make a furious comeback to beat an average Raiders team. Tom Brady had another huge passing game and continues to make quarterbacking look way too easy. The Bills defense let Jason Campbell light them up, Brady is going to have a field day.

Prediction: New England 31, Buffalo 17

San Francisco (1-1) at Cincinnati (1-1), Cincinnati favored by 2 1/2

The 49ers will recognize a lot of faces on the Bengals defense. Manny Lawson, Nate Clements, and Taylor Mays were all with the 49ers last season and now are on the Bengals. This is one of those games I was having a hard time picking. The Bengals look better than I expected, with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green developing a chemistry quicker than expected. However, I still am not buying the Bengals are anything more than a 4 win team. This is a game the Niners should win, but you never know with Alex Smith back there.

Prediction: San Francisco 21, Cincinnati 19

Miami (0-2) at Cleveland (1-1), Cleveland favored by 2 1/2

The Dolphins are ecstatic to be going on the road. They have lost 9 of their last 10 home games, but went 6-2 away from Pro Player Sun Life Joe Robbie Stadium last year. They just seem to play better on the road, including the defense, which has been awful, and Chad Henne, who reverted to his awful form last weekend. I still can't get the Browns losing at home to Cincinnati out of my head. I like the Dolphins in the mini upset.

Prediction: Miami 23, Cleveland 21

Denver (1-1) at Tennessee (1-1), Tennessee favored by 7

More mediocre teams that you don't really know what to make of. The Titans were impressive in blowing out Baltimore. Matt Hasselbeck shredded the Ravens overrated defense. Chris Johnson is still under performing and you know Titans fans are crossing their fingers this isn't a Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson story about to play out. You know, where the running back holds out for more money, gets paid and then his career falls apart. If Johnson can't get it going against a porous Broncos defense, then there will be some cause for concern.

Prediction: Tennessee 27, Denver 24

Detroit (2-0) at Minnesota (0-2), Detroit favored by 3 1/2

The Lions are 2-0!!!! Detroit fans everywhere are losing their minds. I'm still not buying. You know how I will start buying it? Go to Minnesota on Sunday and beat the Vikings. The Lions never win in Minnesota. The Vikings have been the best first half team in football, but unfortunately have been the worst second half team in football. The Lions have cured their ills in the past, why not one more time?

Prediction: Minnesota 24, Detroit 21

Houston (2-0) at New Orleans (1-1), New Orleans favored by 4

No team has had a tougher schedule to start the season then the Saints. This week they welcome the 2-0 Texans to the Superdome. I hope Texan fans are keeping their 2-0 start in perspective. They started 2-0 last season, then the bottom fell out and they went 4-10 to finish the season. They have no excuses this year as the AFC South is a complete dumpster fire. Wade Phillips has already seemed to have an effect on the defense but playing Kerry Collins and Chad Henne won't have them ready for the firepower of Drew Brees.

Prediction: New Orleans 28, Houston 17

New York Giants (1-1) at Philadelphia (1-1), NO LINE

No line available on this game because of the uncertain status of Mike Vick. All indications are that Vick will play, and will even have Kevlar padding in his helmet. The Giants got a win Monday night, but it was a loss for all of America. What a boring game. The Eagles have looked unstoppable with Vick in the game, especially the offense. Vick plays this entire game and the Eagles will roll.

Prediction: Philadelphia 30, New York Giants 20

Jacksonville (1-1) at Carolina (0-2), Carolina favored by 3 1/2

It's the battle of the rookie quarterbacks, the Panthers Cam Newton versus the Jaguars Blaine Gabbert. Could Jack Del Rio be any more of a buffoon? Three weeks ago it was "we believe in Luke McCown, he can win games, blah, blah, I'm talking out my ass." Now not even three games into the season and he has already made the switch. Either he has tremendous job security or this was a move pushed by ownership because David Garrard would have given him the best chance to win games. Newton threw for over 400 yards again, which is impressive, but somehow his 3 interceptions against the Packers got lost in the conversation. Those type of rookie mistakes are bound to happen, but it is annoying that the media just glossed over it in their attempt to create another star. I'm not willing to say Newton will throw for 400 again but I expect him to have limited mistakes against a poor Jags defense and get his first win as an NFL starter.

Prediction: Carolina 26, Jacksonville 14

New York Jets (2-0) at Oakland (1-1), New York Jets favored by 3 1/2

This game will come down to just how big a loss Nick Mangold is for the Jets. There is no denying it will have an effect but will it completely derail the offense? I am willing to bet that it slows it down, but the Jets defense picks up the slack. I could see this game having nothing but field goals and the team with the ball last winning.

Prediction: New York Jets 18, Oakland 15

Baltimore (1-1) at St. Louis (0-2), Baltimore favored by 3 1/2

I hope no one crowned the Ravens after Week 1, because the team that showed up in Week 2 was more the team I was expecting. The Ravens are an okay team, nothing more, nothing less. They are getting old on defense, and aren't nearly as intimidating as they used to be. That being said, the Rams are a mess. Their banged up on offense and they are a team that is very young and prone to things like dropped passes and penalties. I think Ray Rice will shred the Rams defense and the Ravens win comfortably.

Prediction: Baltimore 27, St. Louis 14

Kansas City (0-2) at San Diego (1-1), San Diego favored by 14 1/2

What can you say about the Chiefs? I already expected them to take a step back but then they lose Tony Moeaki, Jamaal Charles, and Eric Berry for the season? They are snake bitten. I am usually wary of picking teams to cover spreads this high, but the Chiefs have lost by 34 and 45 points in their first two games, it would be pretty ridiculous to pick them to cover a 14 1/2 spread at this point. I will at least say they make it respectable and lose by just 21 points this weekend.

Prediction: San Diego 35, Kansas City 14

Green Bay (2-0) at Chicago (1-1), Green Bay favored by 3 1/2

The storied rivalry is also a rematch of last year's NFC Championship game. The Bears are on track to have Jay Cutler decapitated by Week 6 and Cutler even admitted as much this past week. The Packers have been less than impressive on defense, and lost S Nick Collins for the season. They did show some nice resolve coming back from a 13-0 deficit at Carolina last week. The offense is still as powerful as ever, but I think they will be slowed by the Bears defense. Aaron Rodgers has always seemed to struggle against the Bears. However, Cutler never plays that well against the Packers either, the Packers are a better team than the Bears, therefore the Packers win.

Prediction: Green Bay 21, Chicago 17

Arizona (1-1) at Seattle (0-2), Arizona favored by 3

The Seahawks look terrible but after this game we will know just how terrible they truly are. No matter how bad, the Seahawks usually have a distinct advantage at home. If they are as bad as I think they are, that advantage will be reduced to nothing this season.

Prediction: Arizona 27, Seattle 13

Atlanta (1-1) at Tampa Bay (1-1), Tampa Bay favored by 1 1/2

I'm still not sure what to make of the Falcons. They were mostly outplayed by Philadelphia and were very lucky to escape an 0-2 start. Same thing goes for the Buccaneers who had to overcome a large deficit to avoid falling to 0-2. These teams aren't far apart so that will make this game a close one. I like the Falcons offense to make a few more plays than the Bucs.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 23

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Indianapolis (0-2), Pittsburgh favored by 10 1/2

A month ago this game would have been the top game of the weekend. Without Peyton Manning, it has me questioning if I will even watch. I though with all that talent, that even without Peyton the Colts could still be competitive. However, a loss at home to the poo poo Browns is all I need to see to know that without Pey Pey the Colts are screwed. Were any of these guys even good or was it really all Manning? I almost want the Steelers to keep playing well so they can shutup that lardo Warren Sapp who proclaimed them done after one week.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 30, Indianapolis 13

Monday, September 26

Washington (2-0) at Dallas (1-1), NO LINE

I have gone back and forth on this game all week. I decided that if Tony Romo or Dez Bryant didn't play that I would definitely pick the Redskins. But it appears that even though both will be playing hurt and thus open to easily being re-injured that both Romo and Bryant should play. It will certainly help the Redskins that Miles Austin is out but with Romo having Bryant and Jason Whitten at his disposal, I still think the Cowboys passing game can have their way with the Skins defense. I also worry about Rex Grossman avoiding turnovers and the Redskins ability to slow down DeMarcus Ware. Ware could make Grossman's life a living hell and force him into fumbles and bad throws. If this game were in Washington I'd be more inclined to pick the Skins, but I just don't see a win Monday night. I hope I'm wrong.

Prediction: Dallas 28, Washington 24


Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 20-12

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-9-1
Overall Against the Spread: 15-15-2

Cram Session - Week 4

This weekend conference action kicks into high gear but the most intriguing game of the weekend is a non-conference tilt between LSU and West Virginia. Last year, LSU survived at home against what wasn't a very good West Virginia team. The Mountaineers look better this season, especially QB Gino Smith. Will it make a difference though, when he faces the best defense in the country?

Game That Matters to Me

Notre Dame (1-2) at Pittsburgh (2-1)

The Irish finally got that elusive first win. They still turned the ball over way too much, but the defense and special teams picked up the slack. Plus, it helped playing such a fluke fraudy team like Michigan State. Next up is Pittsburgh which fresh off announcing their move to the ACC, squandered a huge lead at Iowa to drop their first game of the season. The Panthers haven't been impressive through the first few weeks of the season. One of their wins was a squeaker at home against Maine. Their quarterback is Tino Sunseri who currently has 3 TDs, 4 INTs and is completing passes at a 62.5% rate. However, the player the Irish need to key in on is RB Ray Graham. Graham already has 6 TDs and averages over 5 yards a carry. Problem for Pitt is, the Irish run defense has been pretty good against the run. They completely shut down Michigan State. If Pitt can't get their running game going, their only hope will be the Irish doing their weekly tradition of shooting themselves in the foot. I think the Irish are clearly a better team so as long as they can limit the turnovers they should be .500 after this game.

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Pittsburgh 24


Top 10 - Saturday, September 24

Missouri (2-1, 0-0) at #1 Oklahoma (2-0, 0-0)

Revenge games can be a huge motivator for teams, as seen with Nebraska and Washington last weekend. The #1 Sooners are playing that angle for when they welcome Missouri to Norman. Last season, Missouri knocked off the then #1 Sooners and did it in pretty convincing fashion. Missouri will have to play out of their minds if history is to repeat itself. Oklahoma has won 37 straight home games and is coming off an impressive win at Florida State. Missouri failed their only test of the season, losing to a decent but not very good Arizona State team. I expect this to be a relatively easy night for the Sooners.

Prediction: Oklahoma 41, Missouri 17

#2 LSU (3-0) at #16 West Virginia (3-0)

West Virginia is going to be shell shocked when they see and feel the difference of playing the LSU defense versus the donkeys they have played thus far. I foolishly picked against LSU last week because I still wasn't convinced their defense was good enough to cover the deficiencies of their offense. I will not make that mistake again. Mountaineers QB Gino Smith has played great so far, but reality is going to smack him in the face Saturday night. I don't think the Tigers will pitch a shutout but they will slow down the Mountaineer attack. LSU already dealt with one tough night game on the road so that won't really play a factor in this one, no matter how drunk the coeds of West Virginia are. One thing that is guaranteed, win or lose, there will be couch burning in Morgantown.

Prediction: LSU 24, West Virginia 14

#14 Arkansas (3-0, 0-0) at #3 Alabama (3-0, 0-0)

The Razorbacks finally start their season after loading up on cupcakes to begin the year. When Troy gives you all you can handle that shows me you are not ready to go to Tuscaloosa and compete with the Crimson Tide. The Crimson Tide are giving up just 6 points a game. I still rate LSU's defense ahead of them because LSU has slowed down high powered offenses like Oregon and Mississippi State. If the Crimson Tide can limit the Razorbacks to single digits or even 14 like I predict, I will consider revising those rankings.

Prediction: Alabama 30, Arkansas 14

Tulsa (1-2) at #4 Boise State (2-0)

Boise State is another team that I should quit doubting. I thought that Toledo could give them a challenge but the Broncos blew them out. QB Kellen Moore is incredible and rightfully is garnering some Heisman talk.

Prediction: Boise State 47, Tulsa 17

South Dakota (2-1) at #6 Wisconsin (3-0)

The goal for the Badgers is to stay healthy and be 100% for Nebraska coming to town next weekend.

Prediction: Wisconsin 55, South Dakota 13

#7 Oklahoma State (3-0, 0-0) at #8 Texas A&M (2-0, 0-0)

Big 12 or 10 or 9 fans or however many teams are left in this sinking conference would argue that this is the game of the week. They might be right as far as entertainment purposes but nationally I think way more people care about LSU/West Virginia. I have doubted some teams and they have proven me wrong. The Aggies are another team I doubt. I think they are good but Top 10 good? I'm not buying it. The main attraction is the Oklahoma State offense going against the Aggie defense. Texas A&M is giving up just 10 points a game while the Cowboys average an amazing 52 points a game. The Cowboys have top flight talent at QB, RB, and WR. Road games are tough but I think the Cowboys are finally ready to take that next step of moving from good to elite. A win at Kyle Stadium against the overrated 12th man would be a huge statement.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 35, Texas A&M 34

#9 Nebraska (3-0) at Wyoming (3-0)

The Huskers have been scoring at a blistering pace. Unfortunately, their defense has been reminding me of the defenses during the Bill Callahan era. The Huskers have lost their share of talent over the last few years but with the Pelini brothers coaching them up it was expected that the defense would remain strong. Hopefully they show improvement Saturday but they will be tested by Wyoming. They have two running backs, Ghaali Muhammad and Brandon Miller each averaging over 6 yards a carry. Their quarterback, Brett Smith, is a freshman so hopefully the Huskers can get some pressure on him and force him into mistakes. At this point, everyone knows what Nebraska is offensively. Martinez can run but not pass and the Huskers will live and die with the run. Nebraska can't be caught looking ahead to Wisconsin or they will be fighting for their lives. I have faith that Bo Pelini will make sure they are properly focused.

Prediction: Nebraska 42, Wyoming 24

#10 Oregon (2-1, 0-0) at Arizona (1-2, 0-1)

Things are falling apart fast for the Wildcats. Back to back weeks have seen them blown out by ranked foes. It get's no easier this week as the Ducks come calling. Oregon has blown away their last two opponents are their disappointing opening loss to LSU. LaMichael James has gotten back on track and is averaging almost 8 yards a carry. I think Arizona is tired of having their poo pushed in and will put up more of a fight on Saturday.

Prediction: Oregon 30, Arizona 23

Last Week: 9-2
Overall: 25-4

The Hail Mary - Week 2

Week 1 was highlighted by offense and blowouts. Quarterbacks had huge games. Some were not so surprising, like Tom Brady, but others were shocking, such as Cam Newton's debut. If anything it seemed the lockout affected the defenses more than the offenses. Week 2 has some solid games but the one drawing the most attention is Mike Vick's return to Atlanta. This is Vick's second trip back to Atlanta, but his first as a starting quarterback. The game is pretty important for Atlanta, looking to avoid an 0-2 start.

Week 2 - Sunday, September 18

Oakland (1-0) at Buffalo (1-0), Buffalo favored by 4

Two weeks into the season and either Oakland or Buffalo is guaranteed to be undefeated. The Bills are getting some hype after their waxing of Kansas City at Arrowhead. I wasn't necessarily surprised the Bills won, but was shocked that it was by 34 points. Ryan Fitzgerald quietly was effective last season, and he might be carrying that effectiveness over to this year. The Raiders tried to lose to Denver, committing 15 penalties, but luckily for them the Broncos are so bad it didn't matter. The formula for success for the Raiders is simple. Darren McFadden has to be effective running the ball, because Jason Campbell and the receivers give them nothing, and the defense has to be the type of ball hawks they were Monday night. Oakland having to go to Buffalo for an early game seems like too much of a hurdle for the Raiders to overcome.

Prediction: Buffalo 28, Oakland 17

Kansas City (0-1) at Detroit (1-0), Detroit favored by 8

Wait, so not only might Buffalo be 2-0, but the Lions too!?! This is the most I think I have ever seen the Lions favored by in my life. It is with good reason though, as they were impressive on the road against Tampa. The Chiefs were expected to take a step back after their fluke fraud season last year, but based on they played in Week 1 they may finish 0-16. The Chiefs only hope is that Jamaal Charles can get going, as that is about the only thing they have going for them. I am actually picking the Lions to cover an 8 point spread, hell has frozen over.

Prediction: Detroit 27, Kansas City 13

Baltimore (1-0) at Tennessee (0-1), Baltimore favored by 6

Man, the Titans really suck. Losing to a sorry Jacksonville team, and one of your touchdowns was a complete fluke? Chris Johnson did next to nothing and obviously is rusty due to his lengthy holdout. The Ravens shocked the football world by their complete domination of Pittsburgh. Are the Steelers that bad, the Ravens that good, or is it just a week 1 aberration? I still don't think the Ravens are anything better than a 9-7 team. However, I may have underestimated just how awesome Ray Rice is. I expect Rice to have another big game this Sunday.

Prediction: Baltimore 28, Tennessee 14

Cleveland (0-1) at Indianapolis (0-1), Cleveland favored by 2 1/2

I know the Colts are without Peyton Manning. I also know that they were curb stomped by the Texans. It was pretty embarrassing but nowhere near the level of embarrassment the Browns should feel losing at home to the Bungles. No doubt Manning is incredibly vital to the Colts offense but is hard for me to believe that none of the Colts many skill players can only be effective with Manning under center. I think this line is ridiculous, and that the Colts feel a little better about themselves come Monday.

Prediction: Indianapolis 19, Cleveland 17

Tampa Bay (0-1) at Minnesota (0-1), Minnesota favored by 3

This is pretty much a pick em game in my view. The Shanahan's have to be feeling a little better after McNabb laid a stink bomb to start the season. He threw for just 35 yards. Yes, in the entire game, not just on a drive, not just on a play but in a game that he played all four quarters in. That is pathetic. Maybe he can double it and throw for 70 this weekend! The Vikings held their own against the Chargers as I expected, and I think home field is enough for them to get the win in this one.

Prediction: Minnesota 23, Tampa Bay 21

Chicago (1-0) at New Orleans (0-1), New Orleans favored by 7

Vegas obviously wasn't impressed by the Bears rout of the Falcons. The Saints have to be worried about their defense, which has been torched in the last two meaningful games they played in. The offense looked fantastic in the opener, and even without Marques Colston, shouldn't miss a beat. They do need to establish the run more, as Mark Ingram had a disappointing debut. The Saints spent a lot of money upgrading their defensive line. If that line can't get a push on the Bears sorry offensive line, it will begin to look like a wasted investment.

Prediction: New Orleans 28, Chicago 24

Jacksonville (1-0) at New York Jets (1-0), New York Jets favored by 9 1/2

I think this line is way too high. Jacksonville won in New York the last time they played there, and the Jets should be 0-1. They only reason they beat the Cowboys was because Tony Romo turned into a buffoon in the 4th quarter. I think Jacksonville's atrocious but the Jets start didn't inspire much confidence in me. Their game plan of having Sanchez throw and then supplement it with a little bit of running was odd to me. Mark Sanchez played ok, but I don't think he is ready to take that much control of a game. Jets will win, but the Jags will be competitive.

Prediction: New York Jets 20, Jacksonville 13

Seattle (0-1) at Pittsburgh (0-1), Pittsburgh favored by 14 1/2

It's the rematch of one of the worst Super Bowls ever played! The Steelers can't just win this game, they need to annihilate Seattle. If the Steelers struggle at home, then their fans should officially panic. Warren Sapp has declared the Steelers dead and said their defense is too old and slow now. Just 7 months ago that defense was good enough to get Pittsburgh to the Super Bowl, so I think Sapp is being his usual idiotic self. Its hard to play good defense when your offense turns the ball over a ridiculous 7 times. This line is too high for Pittsburgh to cover but they will still win comfortably.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Seattle 10

Arizona (1-0) at Washington (1-0), Washington favored by 4

Man has the talk changed about Rex Grossman. He plays one good game and now all the stories are, the Shanahan's have resuscitated Rex's career! The Skins were impressive in Week 1 and Grossman did play well, but let's slow down on the hyperbole. Grossman has a chance to have another good game, against a porous Cardinals secondary that tried to make Cam Newton a Hall of Famer in his first career start. Redskins RB Tim Hightower has a chance to earn some revenge on the team that felt casting him off for over the hill Vonnie Holliday was a good move. Hightower struggled against the Giants but I expect him to be more like the Hightower we saw in the preseason against Arizona. DeAngelo Hall will have his hands full with Larry Fitzgerald. Hakeem Nicks was having success getting open, so Fitzgerald could make a couple big plays. I was really happy with how the defense looked against New York, and with the Cardinals being so one dimensional the chance is there for another strong performance. This town could come unglued if the Skins start out 2-0.

Prediction: Washington 23, Arizona 20

Green Bay (1-0) at Carolina (0-1), Green Bay favored by 10

I think reality hits Cam Newton this weekend against the defending champs. I was just as impressed as everyone else by his debut but it may have been a bad thing for him. He has nowhere to go but down now and set the expectations way too high to start. Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers will have Newton under duress most of the game. The Packers offense will show the precision they showed in the opener, that makes the game look so easy for them. Packers in a rout.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Carolina 13

Dallas (0-1) at San Francisco (1-0), Dallas favored by 3

Remember when this game used to create buzz and was always the de facto Super Bowl? Now, not so much. That's what happens when instead of Troy Aikman vs. Steve Young, you have Tony Romo vs. Alex Smith. The Niners won like they were supposed to last weekend but Smith was his usual mediocre self and they were saved by Ted Ginn. The Cowboys looked great for three quarters until Romo experienced shrinkage in a big moment. The Niners will be game to keep this close for a little bit but the Cowboys are much more talented than them. Man, it hurts to say that.

Prediction: Dallas 31, San Francisco 21

Cincinnati (1-0) at Denver (0-1), Denver favored by 4 1/2

I thought the Bengals would be the last team to win a game this year but they got that out of the way quickly. Playing against the Broncos they have a fair chance at being 2-0. The natives are already restless with Kyle Orton. If he struggles against Cincy it could get ugly at Sports Authority Invesco Mile High Stadium. I am not sure if Andy Dalton is recovered and ready to play this game. I haven't heard anything about his status, likely because no one gives a crap. What the hell, I like the Bungles in a sorta upset.

Prediction: Cincinnati 13, Denver 10

Houston (1-0) at Miami (0-1), Houston favored by 3

The Dolphins did what they do best on Monday night, lose embarrassingly at home. The defense was supposed to be the one bright spot but it was actually the offense that had a nice accounting of itself. Everyone loves the Texans after they routed the Colts, but all it reminds me of is last season. That being said, Miami just can't seem to win at home and I don't expect that to change Sunday.

Prediction: Houston 26, Miami 18

San Diego (1-0) at New England (1-0), New England favored by 6 1/2

This is the second best game of the weekend. Tom Brady was amazing last Monday night and I think it is beyond a shadow of a doubt now that he is the best quarterback in football. The Patriots do need to be concerned about their defense, which didn't look any better than the average unit they were last season. If Chad Henne can throw for over 400 yards on them, Philip Rivers must be feeling tons of excitement about what he might be able to do. The Chargers special teams remains terrible and a coaching battle between Bill Belichick and Norv Turner is laughably one sided. The games between these teams are usually close, so I don't think the Patriots will cover the number.

Prediction: New England 30, San Diego 27

Philadelphia (1-0) at Atlanta (0-1), Philadelphia favored by 2 1/2

Some silly people thought that the Rams were going to upset the Dream Team. As I expected the Eagles made a statement and blew the Rams out of their building. What I didn't expect was the Falcons to get bent over by the Bears. I knew the Falcons had a shaky defense but their offense was atrocious, especially Matt Ryan. Mike Vick hopes he can have the kind of game he had two years ago in Atlanta. Despite being the third string quarterback he was able to score two touchdowns against the Falcons. Vick was as electrifying as ever running the ball against the Rams but just 14 of 32 passing. That needs to improve quickly. The Falcons are starting to get the stink to me of a team that won a lot of games one season, then has a precipitous fall the next. Expect lots of what's wrong with the Falcons stories after they start the year 0-2.

Prediction: Philadelphia 27, Atlanta 20

Monday, September 19

St. Louis (0-1) at New York Giants (0-1), New York Giants favored by 4 1/2

Usually the stinkers come later in the year for Monday Night Football since they don't have the option of flex scheduling. That's not the case this season, Week 2 and MNF has their first stinker! I know what Jaws is probably thinking and is liable to say on Monday, "shit"! The Rams have been hit by the injury bug already, as both Danny Amendola and Steven Jackson could miss a few weeks. Jackson is a beast but damn is he brittle. The Giants defense has been besieged by injuries and it showed in Week 1. The Rams are down some options on offense though so that should balance things out a bit. The Giants offense doesn't have injuries and needs to perform far better than they did in Week 1.

Prediction: New York Giants 24, St. Louis 13

Last Week Straight Up: 9-7
Overall Straight Up: 9-7

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-6-1
Overall Against the Spread: 9-6-1

Cram Session - Week 3

On paper, this appears to be the most exciting weekend in college football so far. Plenty of good rivalry games and games featuring ranked teams playing one another. The biggest game of the weekend is #1 Oklahoma traveling to #5 Florida State. The Seminoles are looking to prove that they really deserve a Top 5 ranking. A win against Oklahoma would quiet the doubters that don't believe Florida State is really back.

Games That Matter to Me

#15 Michigan State (2-0) at Notre Dame (0-2)

As a fan I have seen my fair share of heartbreaking losses, but last Saturday might have been the worse. Notre Dame dominated Michigan on both sides of the ball for three quarters. Then the fourth quarter came, and the Irish players remembered that they are averse to success. They choked away the game, allowed Michigan QB Denard Robinson to successfully play 500 against them, and lost in the final seconds. Because of that, the Irish now stand at 0-2 and the season is already lost. They have to win this weekend at home against #15 Michigan State to avoid an 0-3 start. Last season, the Irish suffered an almost as heartbreaking defeat at Michigan State. The question is, can Brian Kelly keep the players heads up. Notre Dame has outplayed their two opponents but have killed themselves with turnovers. Ten turnovers in two games, including five in the red zone is not a formula for success. QB Tommy Rees appeared to be much more comfortable in the offense than Dayne Crist and is obviously the man that should lead the Irish. WR Michael Floyd continues to dominate and make opposing defenders look silly. The defense will have to slow down the Spartans passing game, led by Kirk Cousins. The Spartans have played no one of consequence, so its hard to get a true read on them. I think last season was a fluke for them, and even if they beat the Irish, I won't be convinced they are as good as their ranking would indicate. Right now, I have zero faith in the Irish winning a football game. I do believe they will find some nauseating, heartbreaking way to lose it though.

Prediction: Michigan State 24, Notre Dame 21

Washington (2-0) at #11 Nebraska (2-0)

The players and coaches can downplay it all they want but this is clearly a revenge game for the Huskers. They came out flat in the Holiday Bowl last December and were embarrassed by the Huskies, now they get a shot at revenge at home. It was just one year ago that Nebraska went to Washington and lambasted the Huskies. Washington still hasn't proven they can generate any offense on the Huskers defense. However, the Blackshirts looked very weak in the win last week against Fresno State. Jake Locker is gone so new quarterback Keith Price will see if he can do what Locker couldn't, have success against the Huskers defense. Playing Nebraska will be a step up for the sophomore, who so far has only faced Hawaii and Eastern Washington. For Nebraska, it would be nice to see the passing game get some rhythm so they aren't so reliant on the run. Through two games their leading receiver is Jamal Turner, who has just four catches. QB Taylor Martinez is completing just 48% of his passes and has 1 TD and 2 INTs. The Huskers won't be caught sleep walking their way through this one. I expect them to get their revenge, and I hope the defense steps up their game.

Prediction: Nebraska 41, Washington 27

Top 10 Thursday, September 15

#3 LSU (2-0, 0-0) at #25 Mississippi State (1-1, 0-1)

Very good Thursday night game that lost a bit of its luster with the Bulldogs loss at Auburn on Saturday. That being said, they still will be at home and the atmosphere for Thursday night games is always special. The best offensive player on the Bulldogs is senior RB Vick Ballard. He is averaging an astounding 9 yards a carry through two games. The LSU defense is one of the best in the country and Ballard is the key. If they slow Ballard, the Tigers will win, and probably pretty easily. However, this isn't an Oregon team finding out that the SEC style of play is nothing like their conference. Ballard has been through the battles in the SEC and I think he can be successful tonight. Jarrett Lee has done his job replacing Jordan Jefferson, but playing at home and neutral sites is different than going to Starkville. The timing is right, the Bulldogs have lost 11 straight to LSU, that ends tonight.

Prediction: Mississippi State 28, LSU 25

Friday, September 16

#4 Boise State (1-0) at Toledo (1-1)

This game became much more interesting after the scare Toledo put into Ohio State last weekend. Can the Rockets put together back to back games like that and give the Broncos a challenge? Kellen Moore is far better than the Buckeyes quarterback options and will present problems for Toledo that Ohio State couldn't. I think Toledo can keep this game close but once again will come up agonizingly short.

Prediction: Boise State 35, Toledo 27

Saturday, September 17

#1 Oklahoma (1-0) at #5 Florida State (2-0)

Both teams will be looking to make a statement. Choklahoma wants to avoid choking in a big spot and validate their preseason number one ranking. For Florida State, beating two cupcakes to start the season hasn't proven anything about where they stand. Last season, the Seminoles went to Oklahoma and were destroyed. I really don't think enough has changed in one season that Florida State is suddenly better than the Sooners. The Sooners have had two weeks to prepare for this game. I expect QB Landry Jones, RB Dominique Whaley, and WR Ryan Broyles will all do damage and prove that the Seminoles may be better, but aren't back.

Prediction: Oklahoma 33, Florida State 24

North Texas (0-2) at #2 Alabama (2-0)

Alabama will kill North Texas.

Prediction: Alabama 45, North Texas 10

#6 Stanford (2-0, 0-0) at Arizona (1-1, 0-0)

Stanford and Andrew Luck face their first challenge of the year as they open their conference season at Arizona. The Wildcats were run over by Oklahoma State last week so it remains to be seen how much of a challenge they really are for the Cardinal. Nick Foles has been very good through two games, throwing 6 TDs and no INTs. If he can keep that up against a Stanford defense college football fans everywhere would take notice. The Cardinal are allowing 8 points a game thus far.

Prediction: Stanford 40, Arizona 21

#7 Wisconsin (2-0) at Northern Illinois (1-1)

Wisconsin continues their march to their Big Ten opener against Nebraska. They get to destroy Northern Illinois this week.

Prediction: Wisconsin 47, Northern Illinois 17


#8 Oklahoma State (2-0) at Tulsa (1-1)

The Sooners already got their shots in at Tulsa, so now it is the Cowboys turn. Oklahoma State was at least kind enough to go to Tulsa to do the beating. The only way the Hurricanes keep this close is if the Cowboys are napping, and thinking about playing at Texas A&M next weekend. I doubt that will happen though. Expect more offensive domination from QB Brandon Weeden, and WR Justin Blackmon.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34, Tulsa 14

Idaho (1-1) at #9 Texas A&M (1-0)

The Aggies are being talked about more for which conference they will end up in then what they might do on the field this season. Idaho coming to College Station won't change that, but the focus will be back on the field next weekend for the visit from the Cowboys.

Prediction: Texas A&M 38, Idaho 10

Navy (2-0) at #10 South Carolina (2-0)

This game should be very good. Navy has proven that they aren't intimidated when they have to go on the road against conference powers. The passing game will take a back seat as both teams love to run the ball. The Gamecocks are led by Marcus Lattimore, who has 4 TDs and 288 yards rushing through the first two games. Navy leads the NCAA with 801 yards rushing. They have their typical dual threat at QB in Kriss Proctor. Proctor has thrown just 14 passes in the first two weeks, but has run for 199 yards. I expect this game to go right down to the wire, especially with Stephen Garcia likely to make some mistakes at quarterback. I am not bold enough to pick the upset, but it wouldn't shock me.

Prediction: South Carolina 28, Navy 24

Last Week: 8-0
Overall: 16-2

The Hail Mary - Week 1

The NFL season got off to a blistering start last night. The Packers and Saints combined for 76 points and the game wasn't decided until the final play. Hopefully, that carries over to the rest of the games this weekend. There are some very intriguing ones, including the renewal of the Baltimore Ravens/Pittsburgh Steelers rivalry, the Cowboys taking on the Jets, and the Giants traveling to Washington to take on the Redskins for the 10th anniversary of 9/11. For my new readers, I pick the games against the spread and straight up.

Week 1 - Sunday, September 11

Atlanta at Chicago, Atlanta favored by 3

I expect both of these teams to regress from their high statures last season. That being said, I don't expect to see the Falcons make the precipitous fall that the Bears will. I expect Jay Cutler to be sacked just as bad or worse than he was last year, and I didn't think the Bears were all that good last season to begin with. The Falcons were a good team last season that I believe overachieved a bit. They have a high powered offense but the defense is weak and not championship caliber. The Falcons are better than the Bears and will show it at Soldier Field.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, Chicago 16

Cincinnati at Cleveland, Cleveland favored by 6 1/2

The winner of the most uninteresting game of the weekend goes to Cleveland/Cincinnati. The Browns could get off to a fast start due to an easy schedule while the Bungles could reach even lower depths than they have in the past, which is really saying something. This will be our first look at Andy Dalton, the pro, and also a look at what A.J. Green is capable of against NFL competition. Colt McCoy looked strong in the preseason for the Browns, and if he can carry that over to the regular season, people in Cleveland might have a reason not to be depressed anymore. At least until they remember they live in Cleveland.

Prediction: Cleveland 27, Cincinnati 13

Buffalo at Kansas City, Kansas City favored by 6

The Chiefs are another team I expect to see fall flat on their faces this season. Matt Cassel is already hurt, they lost one of their top receiving targets, TE Tony Moeaki for the season, and the schedule should be much harder this season. That being said, I am not down on them to the point that I would pick them to lose at home to the sad sack Bills.

Prediction: Kansas City 19, Buffalo 16

Philadelphia at St. Louis, Philadelphia favored by 5

The anticipated debut of the Dream Team. Some people have had the audacity to pick St. Louis in this game, but they are just haters. I expect a 2007 New England Patriots type debut for the 2011 Eagles. I don't think the Rams are bad or anything but I think the Eagles, my Super Bowl pick, will be very good.

Prediction: Philadelphia 28, St. Louis 14

Detroit at Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay favored by 2

Tampa Bay is looking for revenge after a heartbreaking home loss last season to the Lions that kept them out of the playoffs. Detroit is the sexy pick this season to be the surprise team that makes the playoffs. I certainly think they will be improved, but think 2012 is more likely to be the year they make the playoff leap. I am looking forward to watching the brick wall that will be Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. This game will come right down to the end, until the Bucs hit a game winning field goal in the final seconds.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, Detroit 23

Tennessee at Jacksonville, Jacksonville favored by 3

Chris Johnson is the only thing worth watching in this game. I guess the other interesting thing is to see how awful Luke McCown is, in replacing David Gerrard. With Peyton Manning being out for most, if not all of the season, these putrid teams actually have hope in the stinky AFC South.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 17

Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Baltimore favored by 2 1/2

This is a good rivalry, but it has been a little one sided as of late. The Steelers always beat the Ravens in the playoffs and when it matters most. I'm not very high on the Ravens this year. I think the defense is aging and not what it used to be, and I have never been sold on Joe Unibrow Flacco. The Steelers bring back most of their Super Bowl team from last season and will have QB Ben Roethlisberger right from the start. It will be a close game as it always is, with a familiar result, the Steelers winning.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 14

Indianapolis at Houston, Houston favored by 8 1/2

Colts fans had their fears realized yesterday when it was announced that Peyton Manning had another neck surgery, and will miss at the least 2 months, and most likely the season. I didn't have high hopes for the Colts this year even with Manning, but I still felt they could win this division. Kerry Collins takes the reigns now, and I don't think its impossible to imagine the Colts still winning the division, even with him under center. People love the Texans for some odd reason. They are becoming what the Cardinals were for years before they finally broke through. So maybe this is the year for the Texans. At the very least, they will start off 1-0.

Prediction: Houston 30, Indianapolis 24

Carolina at Arizona, Arizona favored by 7

The quarterbacks take center stage, as Cam Newton makes his NFL debut, and Kevin Kolb makes his Cardinals debut. The Cardinals will be the least worst team in the NFC West and that should be enough to earn them the division. I don't think Kolb is worth the money he received, but he is a huge upgrade over what Arizona had last season. Newton will have to take his lumps this year.

Prediction: Arizona 31, Carolina 17

Minnesota at San Diego, San Diego favored by 8 1/2

Vegas always loves the Chargers at home, as does the general public. No one seems to be giving the Vikings a chance in this game. I don't think Donovan McNabb is as terrible as he looked in Washington, and the Vikings still have the best running back in the game, Adrian Peterson. I think this could turn into a bit of a shootout, and will be closer than the experts think.

Prediction: San Diego 34, Minnesota 27

Seattle at San Francisco, San Francisco favored by 5 1/2

The Jim Harbaugh era takes on the Tavaris Jackson era. I expect the Harbaugh era to last much longer. Last season the Niners opened at Seattle and were embarrassed, so its time for some payback. I don't expect much from San Francisco this year. They went back to Alex Smith, who receives his 9,000th chance. It was painful watching the Green Bay Packers America's Game and seeing how badly Aaron Rodgers wanted to be a 49er. Hell, the Niners even had Mike McCarthy as their offensive coordinator at the time. The Niners revamped most of their defense, which had actually been a decent unit. The Seahawks are worse though, anytime you willingly turn to Jackson as your starting quarterback you probably need your head examined.

Prediction: San Francisco 17, Seattle 14

New York Giants at Washington, New York Giants favored by 3

Let the fun with Rex Grossman begin! The question is, how long will he last until the fans yearn for John Beck? Fans yearning for John Beck? That is how sad the quarterback situation has gotten in Washington. The Giants have made the Redskins their bitch for the last five years. But if they ever was a time for the Skins to finally beat them, it would be Sunday's game. The Giants have been decimated by injuries on their defense. They have lost countless cornerbacks, and now it appears Justin Tuck might miss this game. Still, I just can't pick the Skins to beat the Giants until they actually do it. I think Eli will have his typical game where he makes some mistakes but also has some wow plays. Brandon Jacobs has always tore apart the Skins, so I expect him and Bradshaw to have good games. I expect Washington to do their usual role of keeping the game close but then making some costly turnover when it counts.

Prediction: New York Giants 24, Washington 22

Dallas at New York Jets, New York Jets favored by 4 1/2

I think the Cowboys will have a four win swing this season and be back in the playoffs. They still have a ton of talent on offense, the question is how their defense responds to Rob Ryan. The Jets don't have a high powered offense, so if they are able to dictate the game, it could be a sign of another long season in Dallas. The atmosphere should be electric with the 10th anniversary of 9/11 in New York. This will be a good game, but I don't expect a high scoring affair. It will be interesting to see how Plaxico Burress does in his first real game back.

Prediction: New York Jets 17, Dallas 14

Monday, September 12

New England at Miami, New England favored by 7

New England has mostly dominated the Dolphins in Miami for the last few years, after struggling in Miami for most of the early 2000s. No one seems sure what to expect out of the Dolphins. They have a talented defense, but the offense, and specifically QB Chad Henne are big question marks. Chad Ochocinco makes his Patriots debut, as does Albert Haynesworth. If Haynesworth ends up having a big year in New England, Skins fans hate will grow even more for him. Another interesting thing to watch is if Reggie Bush really does become the every down back as has been hinted. I think the Dolphins keep this one interesting but I think there is little doubt the Patriots win.

Prediction: New England 27, Miami 21

Oakland at Denver, Denver favored by 3

I guess Vegas forgot about what the Raiders did to Denver at Denver last season. The Raiders not only owned the Broncos but the entire NFC West last year. I'm not sure why ESPN continually has dud matchups for the second games of their doubleheaders to open the season. I guess it isn't really their fault that most of the teams on the west coast suck. Denver won't cover, in fact they will lose, but it won't be embarrassing like last season.

Prediction: Oakland 18, Denver 15

Cram Session - Week 2

Before I get into this weekend's top 10 games, I wanted to share my thoughts for tonight's NFL opener between the last two Super Bowl champions, the New Orleans Saints and the Green Bay Packers.

Thursday, September 8

New Orleans at Green Bay, Green Bay favored by 4

The NFL is back! College is nice and all but give me the best in the world playing the best any day over some good college team playing Louisiana Poop. As has become custom, the defending champions open the season at home. Last year, that was the New Orleans Saints. This season, they get to be the other team in the equation. Both of these teams have high expectations and being picked by many to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They each have high powered offenses, and defenses that mostly have a bend but don't break mentality. Despite that, I don't think tonight's game will be as high scoring as some might expect. If you look into recent history, teams seem to come out very sluggish in the opener. The Saints were only able to put up 14 points in last season's opener. It is a big state, and although these are professionals, they are probably a little too amped up for their own good. It will still be an entertaining game. I expect that each defense will cause a turnover or two and you know that Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers can only be slowed down so much. The media have tried playing up how the Saints got together during the lockout but the Packers didn't. It's a lazy story that really means nothing, as both have played four preseason games now, and any effect them getting together on their own or not has been negated by this point. I am going to go with history. History says that when the defending champion opens on a Thursday night, they don't lose. The Packers will win a tight one, but not too tight, as they will still cover.

Prediction: Green Bay 24, New Orleans 17

Ok, back to college football. Last weekend was pretty underwhelming, as the two big games featuring Top 10 teams, LSU/Oregon, and then Boise State/Georgia each failed to live up to the hype. Predictably, Notre Dame crapped the bed, and Nebraska had an easy time with Chattanooga. The marquee game in the Top 10 this week is #3 Alabama traveling to Happy Valley to take on #23 Penn State. Don't be fooled though. This game is marquee in name only, as I expect Bama to take the Nittany Lions to the woodshed.

Games That Matter to Me

Notre Dame (0-1) at Michigan (1-0)

I was at a wedding last Saturday and missed most of Notre Dame's loss to South Florida. That was probably for the best as the ten minutes I got to watch were infuriating enough. Despite piling up yardage and dominating, the Irish dropped tons of balls, turned the ball over in the red zone on multiple occasions and choked away a game they should have fun away with. After one week, QB Dayne Crist has already lost his starting job, and the guy who probably should have been starting i the first place, Tommy Rees is back in. Now, the Irish are starting 0-2 in the face as they travel to Michigan for the first night game at Michigan Stadium. It should be an electric atmosphere and the games between these two rivals are always close. Last year, Wolverines QB Denard Robinson shredded the Irish and propelled Michigan to a comeback win. Robinson is learning a new offense and likely won't be running wild like he did last season. However, he is a threat still and can also be effective passing. Another player to watch is their RB Fitzgerald Touissant who had two TDs last weekend against Western Michigan. This is a must win game for Notre Dame but they have had a lot of trouble winning at Michigan in recent years. I expect another close, hard fought loss to the Wolverines.

Prediction: Michigan 27, Notre Dame 23

Top 10

Thursday, September 8

Arizona (1-0) at #9 Oklahoma State (1-0)

This will be a fun quarterback battle between the Cowboys Brandon Wheeden and the Wildcats Nick Foles. Foles threw 5 TD passes in a rout of Northern Arizona, while Wheeden threw 3 TDs but also 3 INTs in a win against Louisiana Lafayette. It was also disconcerting for the Cowboys that they gave up 34 points to Lafayette. WR Justin Blackmon and RB Joseph Randle were major players in that first victory and will be on the Wildcats radar tonight. These teams actually met last December in the Alamo Bowl, which Oklahoma State won in a rout. I expect tonight's game to be a little closer but the same result, a Cowboys win.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 31, Arizona 27

Saturday, September 10

Northwestern State (1-0) at #2 LSU (1-0)

The Tigers impressive win over Oregon vaulted them to number two in the polls. QB Jarrett Lee did what he had to do, and the Tigers defense slowed down the Ducks vaunted offense. Lee will be back starting in this one, as Northwestern State moves on from playing Delta State to playing the second best team in the country. To say they will be shell shocked is an understatement.

Prediction: LSU 42, Northwestern State 9

#3 Alabama (1-0) at #23 Penn State (1-0)

It is the second game of the home and home series between these teams. Bama routed Penn State last year at home, so the Nittany Lions are looking for payback. As many as four quarterbacks could play in this game. The Nittany Lions have Robert Bolden and the ginger Matt McGloin, while the Crimson Tide have AJ McCarron and Phillip Sims. McCarron got most of the time in the win against Kent State, but each quarterback had two interceptions. Both are young and the crowd noise in Happy Valley could cause them both problems. However, I think Bama's defense will force Bolden and McGloin into a ton of mistakes, and offset any mistakes their young quarterbacks make. I think that Penn State can hang for a half but Bama is just too good.

Prediction: Alabama 28, Penn State 13

Charleston Southern (0-1) at #5 Florida State (1-0)

Florida State pitched a shutout last week while Charleston Southern got shut out by Central Florida. For the Seminoles it is all about next week when Oklahoma comes to Tallahassee.

Prediction: Florida State 52, Charleston Southern 6

#6 Stanford (1-0) at Duke (0-1)

Duke couldn't beat I-AA Richmond, and now they get to host Andrew Luck and the Cardinal. The Cardinal didn't seem to miss a beat without Jim Harbaugh as coach last week and I expect another emphatic victory this weekend.

Prediction: Stanford 38, Duke 17

Oregon State (0-1) at #8 Wisconsin (1-0)

Russell Wilson was impressive in his Badgers debut and Wisconsin looks to have a running and passing threat at QB, to go with their impressive stable of running backs. The Beavers shockingly lost at home to Sacramento State and obviously miss Jacquizz Rodgers. They will be without his brother James Rodgers in this game and are unsettled at quarterback. If they thought last week was bad, the ugliness could be far worse this weekend.

Prediction: Wisconsin 47, Oregon State 17

Fresno State (0-1) at #10 Nebraska (1-0)

Things will be a little more challenging for the Cornhuskers this week with the Bulldogs coming to Lincoln. Taylor Martinez appeared healthy, running for 135 yards and passing for 116. The Huskers defense looked dominant and in typical Blackshirts form, with Jared Crick standing out. The Bulldogs are quarterbacked by David Carr's younger brother, Derek Carr. Carr is playing behind a very young, and inexperienced offensive line and he will likely find himself on the turf quite a bit in this game. Nebraska needs to be focused because Fresno State is used to playing high caliber competition. I know the Huskers are looking forward to a chance at revenge against Washington next week, but they can't look ahead.

Prediction: Nebraska 37, Fresno State 14

Last Week: 8-2

2011 NFL Predictions

The division previews are done, now it is time to predict what I think will happen in the playoffs. Last season I correctly predicted 3 out of the 6 playoff teams in the NFC. That doesn't sound too good but my main prediction for the NFC was spot on. I had the Packers finishing 10-6, getting the 6th seed and then making it to the Super Bowl. In the AFC I had 5 out of the 6 playoff teams correct, but had the Steelers losing in the Wild Card round. I don't foresee much changing this season. The only new playoff team I think will come from the AFC is the Chargers replacing the Chiefs. In the NFC, I like 4 of the 6 playoff teams from last season to make it back. The new playoff teams will be the Cardinals and the Cowboys, with the Seahawks and Bears missing out. I believe Super Bowl XLVI will be a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX between the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles. However, this time, I think the Eagles come out on top. I like the off-season additions and I think the Eagles have the talent and the coaching to win it all. This all hinges on the health of Michael Vick. If he goes down, so do the Eagles chances of being Super Bowl champions.

NFC

1. Green Bay Packers (NFC North winner), 12-4
2. New Orleans Saints (NFC South winner), 12-4
3. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East winner), 11-5
4. Arizona Cardinals (NFC West winner) 7-9
5. Atlanta Falcons (Wild Card), 10-6
6. Dallas Cowboys (Wild Card), 10-6

NFC Wild Card Round

#3 Philadelphia Eagles over #6 Dallas Cowboys
#5 Atlanta Falcons over #4 Arizona Cardinals

NFC Divisional Round

#1 Green Bay Packers over #5 Atlanta Falcons
#3 Philadelphia Eagles over #2 New Orleans Saints

NFC Championship

#3 Philadelphia Eagles over #1 Green Bay Packers


AFC

1. New England Patriots (AFC East winner), 13-3
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North winner), 12-4
3. San Diego Chargers (AFC West winner), 11-5
4. Indianapolis Colts (AFC South winner), 9-7
5. New York Jets (Wild Card), 11-5
6. Baltimore Ravens (Wild Card), 9-7

AFC Wild Card Round

#3 San Diego Chargers over #6 Baltimore Ravens
#4 Indianapolis Colts over #5 New York Jets

AFC Divisional Round

#1 New England Patriots over #4 Indianapolis Colts
#2 Pittsburgh Steelers over #3 San Diego Chargers

AFC Championship

#1 New England Patriots over #2 Pittsburgh Steelers


Super Bowl XLVI

#3 Philadelphia Eagles over #1 New England Patriots