The Western Conference saw the old guard reclaim their top spot. The San Antonio Spurs were left for dead at the end of last season. They were considered too old to compete for another championship. However, they surged their way to a 61-21 record, and earned home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. The 2-time defending champion, Los Angeles Lakers, finished second in the West, and come into the playoffs losers of five of their last seven games. Both the Spurs and Lakers have question marks about key players going into the playoffs. Manu Ginobli may miss Game 1 of their series against Memphis, while Andrew Bynum is questionable for the start of the Lakers series against the New Orleans Hornets.First Round
#1 San Antonio Spurs (61-21) vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies (46-36)
Unlike the Eastern Conference, their are no cake walks in the Western Conference playoffs. Memphis would have been a 5 seed in the East, but instead had to settle for an 8 seed in the West. They are searching for their first playoff win in franchise history. The good news, I think they will get it. The bad news, they will only beat the Spurs once.
It was surprising to see that the Spurs were just 14th in points per game allowed. Obviously age is starting to catch up to them and their defense has suffered. Tony Parker and Ginobli are their scoring leaders, and the wear and tear is starting to show on Tim Duncan, who averaged a career low 13.4 ppg. However, Duncan still fights hard on the glass and is complemented by DeJuan Blair.
They will be doing battle with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Randolph averaged a double double in points and rebounds. The Grizzlies have missed the scoring of Rudy Gay, but their defense has improved behind Tony Allen, and mid-season pickup Shane Battier.
The Grizzlies are an up and coming team but like any team that is building, they have to take some lumps first. I think getting a playoff win would be a huge step for this franchise and get that monkey off their back. Despite not winning the series, if the Grizzlies can at least win a game they should be pleased.
Prediction: Spurs over Grizzlies, 4-1
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27) vs. #5 Denver Nuggets (50-32)
This is the unquestioned best First Round series in the West. Both of these teams score in bunches and play average to poor defense, so expect many high scoring games. The Thunder continue to improve behind their young nucleus, led by Kevin Durant. They added Kendrick Perkins at the trade deadline, hoping to give themselves the inside presence to match up with the Lakers or Spurs. They have a dynamic point guard, Russell Westbrook, and a towering defensive presence in Serge Ibaka.
The Nuggets changed their identity when they traded Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups to the Knicks. Getting rid of the distraction seemed to do wonders for the team's chemistry, and they have played excellent since the trade. Ty Lawson has taken the reigns at point guard and is half of a nice 1-2 punch with fellow Tar Heel Raymond Felton. Aaron Afflalo and J.R. Smith give the Nuggets depth at shooting guard, while Nene is their bruiser inside.
Nuggets coach George Karl admitted that the Thunder would be a bad matchup for his Nuggets. It could be construed as a psychological ploy but I think Karl was shooting from the hip. The Thunder are ready to continue their steps to being elite and will hold off a game Nuggets team.
Prediction: Thunder over Nuggets, 4-2
#2 Los Angeles Lakers (57-25) vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets (46-36)
Despite their stumbles throughout the season, and continued questions about Andrew Bynum's durability, the Lakers are still considered the favorites to come out of the West. The Hornets, led by Chris Paul, should be only a minor speed bump on the Lakers run to the Finals.
Kobe Bryant isn't as prolific as he once was, but he still averaged 25.3 ppg and played in all 82 games this season. Pau Gasol averaged 18 and 10, while Lamar Odom, despite being a sixth man, was third on the team with 14.4 ppg. When Bynum plays, he gives the Lakers a ridiculous inside presence with Gasol and Odom, but he is constantly injured and can't be counted on. The Lakers seemingly upgraded their bench in the off-season, but Steve Blake has been a disappointment, and Matt Barnes missed large stretches of the season. Ron Artest isn't quite the defensive player he used to be, and makes mind boggling decisions on the offensive end. Derek Fisher is barely alive at this point.
All that being said, the Hornets have Chris Paul and that's about it. The Hornets don't score or rebound much, and mostly get by on playing excellent defense. The loss of David West to a torn ACL crippled this team. Former Laker Trevor Ariza has proven to be a nice role player, but that's about all. The Hornets have another former Laker in DJ Mbenga, maybe he can get some playing time against his old teammates.
The Lakers are going to murder the Hornets inside, and I expect Gasol, Odom, and Bynum if he plays to have a monster series. Kobe will be Kobe. I think Paul can lead the Hornets to a win in New Orleans, but other than that, this series will be total annihilation by the Lakers.
Prediction: Lakers over Hornets, 4-1
#3 Dallas Mavericks (57-25) vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers (48-34)
I can't stand Mark Cuban so by extension I can't stand the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks will have their hands full with Portland. The face of the Blazers is no longer Brandon Roy, it has become LeMarcus Aldridge. Their guard Wesley Matthews out of Marquette has been quite a find for the team, averaging 15.9 ppg. Despite being 88 years old, Andre Miller still gets it done, averaging 12.7 ppg and 7 assists per game. SF Gerald Wallace added some scoring punch when he was traded for before the deadline. The Blazers aren't a prolific scoring team but play tremendous defense, with Aldridge and Marcus Camby making life hell for anyone that decides to go to the hole.
I think the Blazers physical, tough presence will be the undoing for the Charmin soft Mavs. Their coach, Rick Carlisle even called them soft this season. Dirk Nowitzki makes Pau Gasol look tough, and their other big body Tyson Chandler doesn't intimidate anyone. Jason Kidd makes Andre Miller look young by comparison, and Shawn Marion's best years are behind him. Of course, the Mavs aren't as terrible as I making them seem, they won 57 games. But they have struggled down the stretch against the good teams, and mostly feasted on cupcakes.
All that being said this will be a very competitive series, and I think the only First Round series that will go seven games.
Prediction: Blazers over Mavericks, 4-3
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