The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

We are down to the final eight in the NFL playoffs, which means it is Divisional Round time. Besides the Super Bowl, many consider the Divisional Round to be the most exciting round in the NFL Playoffs. That is true this year as all four games are between teams that are pretty evenly matched. I only correctly predicted 1 out of the 4 playoff games last weekend, hopefully I can get back on track this week.

NFC Divisional Round: Arizona (11-6) at New Orleans (13-3), New Orleans favored by 7

The Arizona Cardinals were the only team that stopped me from looking like a complete buffoon in my picks. They built a huge early lead on Green Bay, gave it away, and then won in overtime thanks to their defense. It is expected that they will be in another shootout on Saturday at New Orleans. The Saints enter the playoffs having lost three in a row and leaving people to wonder if they peaked too soon. The mystique of the Superdome has evaporated with back to back home losses to Dallas and putrid Tampa Bay. The question is, can the Arizona defense stop Drew Bees and the Saints potent offense? But on that same note, can an overrated Saints defense slow down Kurt Warner and the Cardinals offense? I expect this game to be a shootout, and the winner will be the team that can at least make the defense aware of their running game.

Prediction: New Orleans 38, Arizona 35

AFC Divisional Round: Baltimore (10-7) at Indianapolis (14-2), Indianapolis favored by 6 1/2

The Ravens exorcised their Patriots demons in resounding fashion last weekend. Next up for them is the Colts, who have had the Ravens numbers in recent meetings, including 3 years ago in the Divisional Round. The Colts have lost two in a row but didn't play their starters the entire game in either of those losses. People are climbing on the Ravens bandwagon after the way they dominated the Patriots, but forget that the Colts have been unbeatable at full strength. The Ravens have struggled running the ball in the past against the Colts and if that is the case again on Saturday, they stand no chance. I think Peyton Manning can carve up the Ravens secondary, and I don't think Joe Flacco can do enough to help the Ravens come from behind.

Prediction: Indianapolis 24, Baltimore 20

NFC Divisional Round: Dallas (12-5) at Minnesota (12-4), Minnesota favored by 2 1/2

As much as it pains me to say the Cowboys are the hottest team in football. They destroyed the Philadelphia Eagles for the second straight week and have now won four in a row. Their defense has been incredible, and QB Tony Romo has been nearly perfect. All of that being said, the atmosphere that awaits them at the Metrodome will be a tough test. It has been said ad nauseum, but for as good as Brett Favre has been this year, the Vikings will win or lose on the back of RB Adrian Peterson. If Peterson struggles, it could be a long day for the Vikings. The Vikings defense also needs to step up. During their December swoon the defense was getting torched, mostly because the defensive front wasn't getting enough pressure, leaving their secondary on an island. If they struggle to get pressure on Sunday, WR Miles Austin could have a huge day. My mind says Cowboys, but my heart won't let me pick them.

Prediction: Minnesota 23, Dallas 20

AFC Divisional Round: New York Jets (10-7) at San Diego (13-3), San Diego favored by 7 1/2

This is the only game I feel sure about. However, that doesn't mean much as I had the Bengals beating the Jets as my lock last weekend. The Jets aren't flashy, they just run the ball well, and play tremendous defense. They have definitely taken on the personality of their coach, Rex Ryan. Forget what I said about the Cowboys above, the Chargers, winners of 11 straight, are the hottest team in football. They are a team that has come close for so long, it seems things might finally be aligning for them this year. However, they are still coached by that imbecile Norv Turner, so you never know with them. I think the Chargers tall targets, WR Vincent Jackson, WR Malcom Floyd, and TE Antonio Gates will present major matchup problems for the Jets. Jets corner Darelle Revis may be able to shut down Jackson, but who is going to stop Gates? The Chargers represent the new era of football, where having a passing game is paramount, and not having a running game doesn't have to be a death knell. It just seems destined to be Colts/Chargers in the AFC Championship.

Prediction: San Diego 24, New York Jets 14

Last Week Against the Spread: 2-2
Overall Against the Spread: 130-126-4

Last Week Straight Up: 1-3
Overall Straight Up: 165-94