BCS National Championship Game#1 Alabama (13-0) vs. #2 Texas (13-0)
For the second straight year the national championship comes down to the SEC and the Big 12. Last year, the Florida Gators shut down the Oklahoma Sooners high-powered offense, and won their second straight national championship. This year it will be Alabama and their stout defense, against Texas and their stout defense.
When facing very good defenses the Longhorns haven't been able to do much. QB Colt McCoy struggled against both Oklahoma and Nebraska, and the Longhorns were lucky to escape both of those games with victories. However, when McCoy plays well, Texas moves up and down the field. McCoy is very efficient, completing 70.5% of his passes and the Texas offense averaged 40.7 points per game this season. McCoy's favorite target is WR Jordan Shipley, who led the team with 106 catches and 11 touchdowns. Shipley had 68 more catches than the Longhorns second leading receiver, Malcolm Williams. Despite not having a dominant running back, the Longhorns still averaged 152.7 rushing yards per game. Their leading rusher is RB Tre' Newton, who led the team with 513 yards, and 6 touchdowns. McCoy is also a threat rushing the ball, finishing the regular season with 348 yards rushing, and 3 touchdowns. Their goal line back is Cody Johnson, who led the Longhorns with 12 rushing touchdowns.
Texas' defense led the nation with 24 interceptions. Safeties Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon combined for 13 of those interceptions. Despite losing Brian Orakpo, the Longhorns pass rush didn't suffer this year, recording 41 sacks. Alabama RB and Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram will be in for his toughest challenge of the season, as Texas led the nation in rush defense.
Alabama is the opposite of Texas on offense. They have a QB in Gerald McElroy that mostly manages the game, and tries to avoid mistakes. He did it pretty damn well, throwing just 4 interceptions to 17 touchdowns this season. McElroy does have a big threat WR in Julio Jones, but Jones' numbers were way down this year. This Alabama offense starts and ends with Ingram. Ingram averaged 6.2 yards a carry and finished with 1,542 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns. If Ingram is shut down the Crimson Tide will have a very hard time winning this game.
Alabama's defense was fantastic this season. They led the nation by only allowing 11 points per game, with Butkus Award winner Rolando McClain terrorizing offenses to the tune of 12 1/2 tackles for loss, 4 sacks and 2 interceptions. The secondary is strong as well, led by Mark Barron and Javier Arenas.
Defense has seemed to rule all the previous BCS games and I expect this one to be no different. I think McCoy will once again struggle against a formidable defense, and the Longhorns running game will have trouble getting much going. It will be up to the Longhorns defense to keep the game competitive. I think they will force McElroy into some uncharacteristic mistakes. The big key to this game will be how Ingram plays. Ingram struggled against Auburn and the Crimson Tide nearly lost. If he struggles that much again, Texas is much better than Auburn and will take advantage. While I don't think Ingram will go for 100 yards, I think he will be effective enough, taking some of the pressure off of McElroy.
This will be a close, low-scoring game but ultimately I think Ingram pushes Alabama over the top and gives Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban his second national championship.
Prediction: Alabama 21, Texas 13
Bowl Record
Last Week: 14-5
Overall: 22-10
Overall Record (Regular season and bowl record combined)
252-78
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