For some teams the ACC Tournament is merely about bragging rights. For others, it is about trying to claw their way into the field of 65 that will be announced on Sunday. Six teams are locks to make the tournament; North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida State, Clemson, and Boston College. Three are still clinging to to the bubble; Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Miami. For Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, and Virginia it is about trying to win four games in four days and shock the world. Unfortunately for them, that isn't going to happen and I won't be previewing those teams in this space. The big question for the Tar Heels is the health of ACC Player of the Year Ty Lawson. He played against Duke with his injured toe and is experiencing considerable swelling. As I go to press he is questionable for the ACC Tournament. If I were Roy Williams and the injury is serious I would hold Lawson out. Carolina, no matter what happens this week will get a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. I would much rather the Heels have a healthy Lawson for the Big Dance. If Lawson plays the Tournament, Carolina will win it. After a slight hiccup to start the season the Heels have been the class of the ACC. If he doesn't play than I would not be surprised to see an upset loss. Lack of motivation may be one problem, the other being Lawson's backup is freshman Larry Drew II, someone who doesn't inspire much confidence at this point. Because of that my predictions will be made in one scenario with Lawson playing, the other without him playing. Even without Lawson, the Heels are loaded and are arguably the best team in the country.
#3 Duke (25-6, 11-5)
#4 Florida State (23-8, 10-6)
People are starting to take notice of Florida State. Seminoles coach Leonard Hamilton was named ACC Coach of the Year and many are speaking of the Seminoles as a potential sleeper team in the NCAA Tournament. Before getting to the NCAA Tournament, the Seminoles are definitely one of the favorites in the ACC Tournament. One major flaw for the Seminoles is how reliant they are on star guard Toney Douglas. If Douglas has an off game then Florida State will be in some trouble. If that is the case they will need guys like F Uche Echefu, and C Solomon Alabi to step up.
The Tigers did what they have made a habit of doing the last few seasons. Start off with about 16 straight wins in the non-conference portion of their schedule, get hyped up, then play average against the ACC, proving that they weren't as good as everyone thought. They come into the ACC Tournament having lost three of their past four. The Tigers do have a pretty good inside, outside game. F-C Trevor Booker leads the Tigers in scoring and rebounding, while guard Terrence Oglesby is always dangerous from three point land.
Boston College has stayed under the radar for most of the season but they do have some huge wins in the ACC. They were the only team to win at the Dean Dome this year, and they defeated Duke at home. They also had that embarrassing home loss to Harvard. G Tyrese Rice reflects the up and down nature of the Eagles. Some games he can explode and look like the best guard in the ACC, in other games he self-destructs and looks terrible.
Maryland leads the teams that have their Tournament hopes on life support. The Terps probably would have been in decent shape if they could have won at sorry Virginia but in typical Terps fashion they choked and played like the perennial NIT team they have become. I wouldn't mind seeing George Mason matched up with the Terps in the NIT. As far as their hopes in the ACC Tournament it all comes down to how red Greivis Vasquez's face gets. It seems like the more red it gets, like against Carolina, he plays amazing. When it is barely red then he plays like crap and the Terps lose. As an aside if any Terps fan can explain what is going on with his face I would appreciate it.
Tech had plenty of chances in the last two weeks to play their way into the NCAA Tournament but couldn't get the job done. They will need to beat Miami and then Carolina and maybe will be in the discussion for a berth. Tech is basically a three man team, led by G-F A.D. Vasallo, G Malcolm Delaney, and F Jeff Allen. Outside of those three the Hokies are pretty weak. No matter what happens to Tech the rest of the season, I am positive that their coach Seth Greenberg will find a reason to whine.
The Hurricanes are somehow still in the discussion for an at-large berth. Maybe it is because they were highly touted in the preseason but the media won't stop jocking them. The Canes have been a disappointment this season but do have a stud player in guard Jack McClinton.
IF LAWSON PLAYS
#9 Miami over #8 Virginia Tech
#5 Clemson over #12 Georgia Tech#10 North Carolina State over #7 Maryland
#6 Boston College over #11 VirginiaQuarter-Finals
#4 Florida State over #5 Clemson
#2 Wake Forest over #10 North Carolina State
#3 Duke over #6 Boston CollegeSemi-Finals
#3 Duke over #2 Wake Forest
Finals
IF LAWSON DOESN'T PLAY
#9 Miami over #8 Virginia Tech
#5 Clemson over #12 Georgia Tech
#10 North Carolina State over #7 Maryland
#6 Boston College over #11 Virginia
#1 North Carolina over #9 Miami
#4 Florida State over #5 Clemson
#2 Wake Forest over #10 North Carolina State
#3 Duke over #6 Boston College
#4 Florida State over #1 North Carolina
#3 Duke over #2 Wake Forest
#4 Florida State over #3 Duke
Without Lawson I don't think Carolina can beat Florida State. Even though they finished fourth I consider the Seminoles the second best team in the ACC, and a Lawson-less Carolina team makes them the best. If Lawson plays at all then the Heels will roll to the championship. I also like Duke to beat Wake Forest in the Semi-Finals, I am not sold on the Deacons like a lot of people are. I would love to see Duke/Carolina finally meet in the championship, maybe this will be the year.
1 comment:
It is very a pity to me, I can help nothing to you. I think, you will find the correct decision. Do not despair.
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