It's make or break time for the teams of the CAA. No CAA team has done enough to distinguish itself as a team worthy of at-large consideration, so it is either win the CAA Tournament or go home (or play in the NIT or CBI). To begin let's eliminate the teams that have no shot of cutting down the nets Monday. That means saying goodbye to Georgia State, Delaware, William and Mary, Towson, and UNC-Wilmington. The separation of teams 1-7 in the CAA is not very much.#1 Virginia Commonwealth (21-9, 14-4)
For the second year in a row VCU is the #1 seed in the CAA Tournament. They have the benefit of the tournament being in Richmond, making it a short trip for their fans, and essentially giving them home court advantage. However, last year that did not prove to be enough as they were shocked in the Semi-Finals by William and Mary. The Rams are led by G Eric Maynor, a CAA player with a legitimate shot at being drafted by the NBA. He led the CAA in scoring with 22.4 points a game. The Rams other difference maker is F Larry Sanders. He gives the Rams a great presence inside and someone for teams to have to pay attention to, which creates tons of opportunities for Maynor.
#2 George Mason (20-9, 13-5)
The Patriots are the defending CAA champions. They didn't have to play the Rams last year, thanks to William and Mary's upset and if things shake out the way they should this year they won't have to play them until the final this year. It has been an up and down year for the Patriots. They started off hot, winning their first 7 CAA games but then finished up with just a 6-5 record in the CAA the rest of the way. The Patriots were a fantastic team at home, and a middling team on the road. The Patriots are probably the most balanced team in the CAA. Their leading scorer, G Cam Long only averages 11.8 points a game. Other key contributors for the Patriots include G John Vaughan and F Daryl Monroe. A key contributor off the bench, F Ryan Pearson is questionable for Mason's opening game Saturday with a hand injury. As long as he can play Sunday and possibly Monday that shouldn't be an issue.
#3 Northeastern (18-11, 12-6)
Much like Mason, Northeastern started off the year hot but then faded down the stretch, losing 5 of their last 8 conference games. The Huskies best player is G-F Matt Janning. Janning is a great shooter, and also rebounds and dishes the ball well. The Huskies also have a pretty good inside presence in C Nkem Ojoughboh. The Huskies are a good defensive team but have struggled mightily on the offensive end recently.
#4 Old Dominion (20-9, 12-6)
Old Dominion is the hottest team entering the CAA Tournament. They have won 9 of their last 10 games and really began to gel as a team after a slow start. They beat VCU, Mason, and Northeastern this season, proving they can play with the best the CAA has to offer. F Gerald Lee is a dominating presence inside for the Monarchs and he is complemented by G-F Ben Finney. A potential Semi-Final meeting between Lee of ODU and Sanders from VCU would be fun to watch. The key to the Monarchs resurgence has been defense, they haven't allowed more than 70 points in 8 games, going 7-1 in that stretch.
#5 Hofstra (20-10, 11-7)
Hofstra is another team that enters the tournament playing its best basketball at the right time. They have won 6 of 7 games, although part of that has to do with their CAA schedule becoming easier down the stretch. The Pride are led by G Charles Jenkins, who averages 19.2 points a game. Their other main offensive contributor is G Cornelius Vines. Besides those two the Pride are limited on what they can do on offense. Another problem for them is their lack of size.
#6 Drexel (15-13, 10-8)
The Dragons are a fantastic defensive team, their problem has been they are also a terrible offensive team. The Dragons have suffered many heartbreaking losses this year, they lost to Mason by 1 point twice, in fact their last three conference losses came by a single point. In those games they held their opponents under 50 points and still weren't able to win. The Dragons are balanced scoring wise and led by guards Scott Rodgers, Gerald Cods, Tramayne Hawthorne, and Jamie Harris. Their problem, much like Hofstra's is the lack of a go to guy inside guy. So when their guards struggle shooting, they are pretty much screwed.
#7 James Madison (18-13, 9-9)
The Dukes are a potential sleeper in this year's tournament, a team with the chance to be this year's William and Mary. They have the size to compete with VCU, ODU or Mason. They are very balanced offensively but unlike Drexel they manage to score points at a decent rate. Madison is led by their forwards Juwann James, Kyle Swanson, and Julius Wells. They also have a weapon at guard with Devon Moore averaging double figures. Madison is a team that Mason can't take lightly on Saturday. Madison has already beaten Mason once and add in the supposed rivalry those schools have and Mason will have to be at their best.
Below you will find my prediction for Friday's First Round games and then my predictions for the games I think will happen the rest of the way.
First Round
#8 Georgia State over #9 Delaware
#5 Hofstra over #12 UNC-Wilmington
#7 James Madison over #10 William and Mary
#6 Drexel over #11 Towson
Quarter-Finals
#1 Virgina Commonwealth over #8 Georgia State
#4 Old Dominion over #5 Hofstra
#2 George Mason over #7 James Madison
#6 Drexel over #3 Northeastern
Semi-Finals
#1 Virginia Commonwealth over #4 Old Dominion
#2 George Mason over #6 Drexel
Finals
#1 Virginia Commonwealth over #2 George Mason
As much as it pains me to say it I see VCU cutting down the nets on Monday night. I believe last year taught them they can't afford to overlook anyone this season. I think the Semi-Final game between them and ODU will be tremendous but I think Larry Sanders will neutralize Gerald Lee, leaving Eric Maynor to go wild. I expect Northeastern to be upset, they come into the tournament with no momentum. I think Mason will give VCU a battle in the Finals, but VCU is the more talented team and talent will win out.
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