The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

After earning a week to rest while watching other teams fight their guts out in the Wild Card round, the best 4 teams enter into playoff action this weekend. Last week all of the road teams were favorites, and this week the pendulum has shifted to the home teams all being favorites. I have been racking my brain trying to settle on predictions for 3 out of the 4 games this weekend. Should be a great weekend of NFL action, and make sure you enjoy it as there are just 7 NFL games left this season.

AFC Divisional Round: Baltimore (12-5) at Tennessee (13-3)

All 4 games this weekend are rematches from the regular season. In Week 5, Tennessee went to Baltimore and survived with a 13-10 win. The Titans trailed most of the game and needed a somewhat bogus personal foul penalty on the Ravens to continue a drive that led to the winning TD. Both QBs Joe Flacco and Kerry Collins had bad games, as these teams field two of the premiere defenses in the NFL. This game figures to be much like that one. I am liking the underdog Ravens in this one. I think the Titans peaked too early in the season, while the Ravens are hitting their stride at just the right time. I worry about Flacco but he didn't have a good game last week against the Dolphins and it didn't matter because of the Ravens suffocating defense. I think the Titans main weapons on offense, RBs Chris Johnson and LenDale White will be held in check and just like their Super Bowl run in 2000, the Ravens will win a divisional playoff game on the road at Tennessee.

Prediction: Baltimore 17, Tennessee 14

NFC Divisional Round: Arizona (10-7) at Carolina (12-4)

I have felt confident in this pick since this matchup was settled on after the Eagles/Vikings game last Sunday. Arizona played one of their better games of the season last week but I don't think that is the true Cardinals. The Cardinals got an instant contribution from RB Edgerrin James, which opened up their passing game. However, for most of the year a running game has been nonexistent for Arizona. Another thing that has been nonexistent is them winning on the East coast, where they are 0-5 this year. Their best effort on the East came against the Panthers. These teams met in Week 8 and Arizona actually led 17-3 in the 3rd quarter. That is when the usual suspects for the Panthers, WR Steve Smith and RB DeAngelo Williams got going and the Panthers held on for a 27-23 victory. The Cardinals shut down RB Jonathan Stewart the first game but I expect both him and Williams to bust out in this one, Smith to have his usual huge game and the Panthers to move on to their 4th NFC Championship game in franchise history.

Prediction: Carolina 35, Arizona 24

NFC Divisional Round: Philadelphia (10-6-1) at New York Giants (12-4)

These NFC East rivals meet for the 3rd time this season. In Week 10, the Giants won at Philadelphia 36-31, and in Week 14 the Eagles got revenge in New York, I mean New Jersey, with a 20-14 win. In the first game despite having just one catch, a touchdown, the difference was WR Plaxico Burress. Burress drew a ton of attention from the Eagles defense, which opened up opportunities for the Giants other receivers and also helped the running game thrive behind Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward. In the second meeting, with no Burress, the Giants were completely ineffective offensively. An interesting stat I heard this past week is that the Giants didn't sack Eagles QB Donovan McNabb in either game. The key for the Eagles to win this one is to keep Donovan upright, have RB Brian Westbrook break off a couple big plays like he did in the second meeting and shut down the Giants run game. The Giants have not looked very good in the past 4 games, save for a stirring second half against the Panthers. I understand why people are picking the Eagles in this one. I just can't see them winning in New Jersey again and I think Jacobs and Ward will have big games.

Prediction: New York Giants 21, Philadelphia 17

AFC Divisonal Round: San Diego (9-8) at Pittsburgh (12-4)

This a rematch from Week 11 which saw the only 11-10 final in NFL history as the Steelers prevailed over the Chargers. Despite only managing 11 points the Steelers offense moved up and down the field in that game, totaling 410 yard on offense. The Chargers had opportunities in the game as well but were killed by red zone interceptions by QB Philip Rivers. Chargers RB LaDainion Tomlinson will apparently spare us all of watching him hobble around for 2 plays and then calling it quits, as he has pretty much ruled himself out of this one. That means it will be up to RB Darren Sproles to have a big game again. In the first game he only got 3 touches, in this one he should expect about 25 touches. The Steelers running game has been inconsistent this year but Willie Parker had 115 yards rushing in the first meeting and I think he and Mewelde Moore can have a big game. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has to avoid turnovers, he has struggled with interceptions in the playoffs and the Steelers have struggled at home in recent years in the playoffs. Despite the Chargers beating my AFC Super Bowl pick the Colts, I am picking them to lose here. I don't think their defense is up to the task in this one and the Steelers are a better team.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 23, San Diego 16

Playoff Record

Overall: 1-3

Overall Record (Regular season and playoffs combined)

132-80-1