The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs Championship Round

Just four teams are left in the chase for a Super Bowl trophy. The AFC will feature a game between the two most physical, toughest, and dominating defenses there are in football. The NFC is a matchup of the underdogs, in a game no one in a million years would have predicted. Unlike last week as soon as these games were determined I felt confident in both of my picks. However, as is wont to happen I have digested all of the analysis from the so called "experts", read the injury reports and it has me slightly doubting one of my choices. Despite this I will march on with my original picks, showing a braveness that few other prognosticators will show.

NFC Championship: Philadelphia (11-6-1) at Arizona (11-7)

The Eagles, save for one embarrassing loss at Washington, have been on fire. The Cardinals were the exact opposite as the season closed out. After clinching the NFC West the Cardinals definitely were resting on their laurels and suffered blowout losses to the Patriots and Vikings. However, during the playoffs some sort of switch has been turned on for their defense. Defense has long been a liability for the Cardinals but in their march to the NFC Championship it has been instrumental in their victories. It was a key turnover caused by the defense to start the second half against Atlanta that completely changed the fortunes of that game. Against Carolina, they were definitely the beneficiary of some terrible decisions by Jake Delhomme but they also were able to take advantage of those bad decisions.

These teams met on Thanksgiving night and it was a game that was completely dominated by the Eagles. This was the game immediately after Donovan McNabb had been benched and he responded like a veteran should, with 4 TD passes. The other man that couldn't be stopped by the Cardinals was Brian Westbrook, who also had 4 scores. Before the Cardinals knew it they were being blown out and the game was over. Trying to draw anything from that game and apply it to this game is fruitless. The Cardinals had to travel cross country on a very short week. This time the Eagles have to travel out West and the stakes will be much higher. All that being said I like the Eagles in this one. They do have a history of choking in the NFC Championship but I think those demons were squashed with their defeat of Atlanta 4 years ago. This will be completely new territory for the Cardinals and they might be overwhelmed. Their QB Kurt Warner will be fine, seeing as he has played in 2 Super Bowls, but most of the rest of the team has never played in a game as big as this one. Another factor in my pick is that quite simply the Eagles are the better team. Their defense has been beastly, shutting down the running games of both the Vikings and Giants. The Cardinals won't be able to run the ball and despite the return of Anquan Boldin won't be able to pick apart the Eagles secondary like they did to the Panthers. Westbrook, save for one long TD on a screen, has been virtually non existent in the playoffs and the Eagles have still won. I think he has a much better game here and the Eagles reach the Super Bowl in what is proving to be the year of Philadelphia in sports.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Arizona 17

AFC Championship: Baltimore (13-5) at Pittsburgh (13-4)

This is the game that is giving me some anxiousness. I was immediately confident in picking the Ravens for two reasons. First, it is extremely difficult for one team to beat another team three times in one season, which is what Pittsburgh would have to do to win this game. Second, the Steelers have a recent history of choking in home playoff Conference Championship games. In 1995 they were heavy favorites against the San Diego Chargers and lost. In 1998, favorites again, lost again to the Denver Broncos. In 2001 it was an upset loss to the New England Patriots, and in 2004 another loss to the Patriots. Sure many of the players playing in this game weren't around for that, but those in the stands definitely will remember. They will be watching this game on edge and the first sign of trouble could immediately take them out of the game and give them a case of here we go again.

The main issue that has given me pause is the health of the Ravens defense. If the Ravens win it will be because of their defense. LB Terrell Suggs will be a game time decision, while CB Samari Rolle has already been ruled out of the game. The Ravens have capable backups but a team can only take so many injuries in one area. The Steelerse benefited last week from a great game by RB Willie Parker. I know that Titans RB Chris Johnson was running all over Baltimore before he got hurt but Parker has a history of strugg a ling against Baltimore and I believe that will continue here. Like last week, I can see the Ravens getting completely outplayed but still winning. I believe Ben Roethlisberger is good for at least 2 costly INTs and I think Joe Flacco will keep his wits about him yet again. Flacco's stats aren't impressive but anyone that hates on a rookie QB winning 2 games on the road is a sad individual. Flacco has avoided mistakes and more importantly he has made the big throws when he has had to, even if he was helped by the referees not knowing that you can't snap the ball when the play clock is on zero. I think the Ravens win, setting up an Eagles/Ravens Super Bowl that will be ripe with storylines. You will have a rematch of the game where McNabb was benched, you will have Ravens coach John Harbaugh going up against the team where he served as an assistant for 10 years, the rookie QB in the Super Bowl, a chance at redemption and a chance to cement their legacy for Andy Reid and McNabb, Ravens/Eagles would be a fantastic Super Bowl.

Prediction: Baltimore 16, Pittsburgh 14

Playoff Record

Last Week: 2-2
Overall: 3-5

Overall Record (Regular season and playoffs combined)

134-82-1