The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships

We are down to the final four in the NFL Playoffs. Going into last week's games it isn't the final four many had been expecting. Everyone assumed we would get Manning vs. Brady in the AFC, and I saw a lot of people picking Seattle at Green Bay in a rematch of the Monday Night Monstrosity. Instead for the second straight season, it will be Baltimore at New England for the AFC Championship. While on the NFC side of things, the Niners are back in the championship game, but this time travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. This week most appear to be sure that we will have a New England vs. San Francisco Super Bowl in two weeks. As a 49ers fan, I am very confident about their chances against Atlanta, but with everyone picking the Niners it definitely makes me nervous. If I have learned anything watching the NFL for over 20 years, it is to expect the unexpected.


NFC Championship: #2 San Francisco (12-4-1) at #1 Atlanta (14-3), San Francisco favored by 4

Colin Kaepernick arrived on the national scene last week with his incredible performance against the Green Bay Packers. After he threw that drive opening pick six, my fears of him being overwhelmed by the moment looked to be right. But then he showed incredible moxie and played tremendously the rest of the game. He rushed for 181 yards, which is incredible to do as a quarterback in the NFL. He wasn't just a rushing threat though, the touch he showed on his deep balls was beautiful. For the few idiots questioning the move from game manager Alex Smith, to game changer Kaepernick there was nothing left for them to say. The Falcons dominated Seattle in the first half, and had me crowing as I was one of the few to predict that they would beat the Seahawks. Then it seemed as if a switch turned and this version of the Falcons remembered they don't enjoy success and would rather be losers. Matty "Ice" Ryan finally actually lived up to that nickname and calmly drove the Falcons into field goal range, and the rest was history.

Last year, the 49ers had a championship defense but a mediocre offense. Smith did play out of his mind against New Orleans last year, but that Saints defense wasn't good. Smith wet himself in the NFC Championship game, not even completing a pass to a wide receiver the entire game. That won't happen Sunday with Kaepernick. For one, WR Michael Crabtree has emerged as the number one receiver the 49ers envisioned when they drafted him. He is living up to the moniker he bestowed upon himself, as "King Crab". I think part of that has to do with old timer Randy Moss. Moss hasn't made a ton of huge plays this season, but his presence has taken some pressure off Crabtree. Moss has been an ideal signing this year. He has made a few plays, not caused any trouble, and has been a good influence on the receiving corps. Last year's main man in the playoffs was TE Vernon Davis. Davis has mostly disappeared from the offense for the last month, but did have one long reception against Green Bay. Kaepernick targeted him a few times against the Packers, and hopefully he can get something going on Sunday. Let's also not forget about Frank "the tank" Gore, who continues to run through holes and play at a high level. The Falcons defense struggles to rush the quarterback, is mediocre at best, and has a gimpy John Abraham. The 49ers have to be licking their chops at going up against this defense. The Falcons defense also has to contend with one of the best offensive lines in the game. Pro Bowler Joe Staley was battling an injury against Green Bay, but battled through it and played great. All indications are that he will play Sunday, and hopefully he can gut through the injury.

Atlanta definitely has some weapons offensively, especially in the receiving game. Roddy White, Julio Jones, and the ageless TE Tony Gonzalez make up one of the best receiving corps in the game today. They have a pretty good quarterback in Ryan throwing them the ball, but Ryan makes a lot of stupid, head scratching throws. Going up against the Niners beastly defense, he is going to have to make some decisions on the run, and the ball hawks in the Niners secondary figure to at least pick off one or two of his passes. One thing that happened in the Falcons win over Seattle that no one anticipated was the Falcons run games being more effective than Seattle's. Michael Turner was running like it was 2009. He may have gashed the Seahawks overrated defense, but I bet he doesn't even average 4.0 yards a carry against San Francisco. Jacquizz Rodgers concerns me more than Turner, but the Falcons seem intent on Turner getting the bulk of the carries. The Niners do have to watch Rogers coming out of the backfield and catching passes, because once he gets the ball, with his speed, he can turn anything into a big play. The Falcons offensive line is strong, and the Seahawks lack of pass rush doomed them. I am confident that Aldon Smith, Justin Smith and company can get pressure on Ryan. Special teams wise, Falcons punter Matt Bosher was terrible last week when he actually had to punt, and that could be a factor Sunday as far as field position. Thankfully, for the 49ers David Akers made the one field goal he attempted last week, and I pray that this game doesn't have to come down to his leg.

If the 49ers win this game to advance to the Super Bowl they will have achieved something they haven't all season long, a three game winning streak. Pretty incredible to think that a team with a 12-4-1 record hasn't won three straight all year, but that's the case. On paper, the 49ers are clearly the better team. If this game were in San Francisco I would give the Falcons no chance at all. Dealing with the crowd at the Georgia Dome will be tough, but let's not forget this Falcons team blew a 20 point lead at home last week. Plus, the 49ers have already shown they can go into tough environments like Lambeau, the Superdome, and New England and not only win games, but dominate. The 49ers are too well coached and have too much talent to lose this game and will return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1995.

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Atlanta 17


AFC Championship: #4 Baltimore (12-6) at #1 New England (13-4), New England favored by 9

The Ravens came into the playoffs with no momentum but here they are, in the AFC Championship game for the third time in five seasons. Them beating the Colts in the Wild Card round wasn't a surprise, but almost no one had them beating the Broncos. I thought the game would be close, but still figured Denver would pull it out. I underestimated the Broncos fraudiness and Peyton Manning's ability to choke in the playoffs. The Ravens are once again huge underdogs, and once again I think this game will be closer than the experts think. The Patriots bulldozed the Texans and seemed destined to reach their sixth Super Bowl in twelve seasons. They did lose TE Rob Gronkowski for the rest of the playoffs when he re-injured his forearm early in the Texans game. However, the offense has hummed along fine without him this season, so it doesn't appear to be a crucial loss.

For Baltimore to stay in this game they will once again need a tremendous effort from polarizing quarterback Joe Flacco. Some have been quick to laud praise on Flacco and call him elite, while others still aren't that impressed, despite Flacco having 5 road playoff wins in his career. I fall somewhere in the middle, but there is no denying that Flacco has come up huge for his team in some big spots. Last year in the AFC Championship he outplayed Tom Brady, and had Lee Evans held on to the ball, Flacco would have been in the Super Bowl. These teams met in Week 3 this season in Baltimore, and Flacco outplayed Brady in that game as well. Flacco has shown that he likes playing against the Patriots defense, and I expect he will play well in this game. It got lost in the shuffle of all the storylines from last week's game but RB Ray Rice also played very well. He rushed for 101 yards against New England earlier this season, and when is running well, it makes things so much easier for Flacco. Flacco has some bonafide receivers in Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith and even TE Dennis Pitta. Defensively, the Ravens have looked much better since they finally got healthy. The scoreboard showed Denver with 35 points last week, but 14 of those came from kickoff and punt returns. The defense will have to dole out big hits on guys like Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez to stop them from taking over the middle of the field. The Patriots offensive line is stingy, so it is imperative for Baltimore that if they can't pressure Brady, they at least make the receivers nervous.

New England will play their hurry, uptempo offense, and you can expect them to have some wrinkles that no one will know about it beforehand. In last year's game it was using Hernandez at running back, and last week it was highlighting Shane Vareen in the passing game. The Patriots couldn't get their running game on track in the Week 3 meeting at Baltimore. I don't expect that to be the case Sunday. Stevan Ridley has become a strong runner, and as long as he isn't fumbling he will gain yardage. Defensively, the Patriots won't shut down the Ravens attack, they just need to manage them, as the offense is bound to put up points for New England. The Ravens line has played well in the playoffs but was re-tooled just two weeks ago, so the opportunities are there for the Patriots to pressure Flacco. Also, Vince Wilfork is always a beast in the middle and will be hard to stop from making Ray Rice's life difficult.

If this was the Ravens defense from three or four years ago I think I would go with the upset. This is the third time the Ravens have reached this game and the law of averages would make you think they have to break through and reach the Super Bowl at some point. I just don't think their defense, even healthy can make enough plays to prevent the Patriots from hanging 30 points. A Harbowl battle between the 49ers and Ravens would be fun, but I don't think John's team can do their part of the deal. The Patriots will once again represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and look to win their first championship since 2004.

Prediction: New England 30, Baltimore 24

Last Week Against the Spread: 2-2
Overall Against the Spread: 121-135-7

Last Week Straight Up: 3-1
Overall Straight Up: 171-92-1

The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round

Wild card weekend was a letdown but traditionally Divisional Round weekend is where the playoffs really pick up. On the AFC side, the oddsmakers have Baltimore and Houston as huge underdogs at Denver and New England. Manning vs. Brady is what everyone is hoping and expecting for the AFC Championship. A few times in the past when it seemed destined those two would meet in the playoffs, an upset happened, including as recently as 2010. That year the Patriots were favored against the Jets, and the Colts with Manning had already advanced to the AFC Championship, by coincidentally enough beating Baltimore. The Patriots had bludgeoned the Jets in the regular season, but then were shocked by them in the playoffs. Could Houston do the same? In the NFC, trying to pick the two games is next to impossible. The 49ers beat the Packers in Week 1 but that was so long ago, and the 49ers even have a new starting quarterback. Atlanta has their doubters as Mike Smith and Matt Ryan are 0-3 in the playoffs together, while the Seahawks are one of the hottest teams in the league. Should be a great weekend, and I hope that I at least get one of these games right against the spread after my embarrassing 0fer last weekend.


AFC Divisional Round: #4 Baltimore (11-6) at #1 Denver (13-3), Denver favored by 9

This is a rematch from Week 15, when the Broncos went to Baltimore and crushed the Ravens 34-17. That result has led many to not give the Ravens a chance in this one, but the Ravens were missing a ton of players for that game. The Ravens were without Ray Lewis, Bernard Pollard, and guard Marshall Yanda. Those three are all back now and the Ravens defense looked much better last week against Indianapolis with Pollard, Lewis, and Terrell Suggs all playing together. The Broncos have won 11 straight games and their bandwagon is becoming crowded. No one seems to care that only two of those wins came against teams with winning records, and the rest were against teams with a combined record of 39-73. It also doesn't seem to bother anyone that Peyton Manning's playoff track record isn't the greatest. Now don't get me wrong I'm not entirely down on the Broncos. I realize that Manning had an incredible season just one year after the neck surgery. I also realize that they have tremendous receivers in Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, and RB Knowshon Moreno has stepped in capably ever since Willis McGahee went down. Lost in all the talk of the amazing year Manning has had, is how good their defense has been, led by LB Von Miller. The Broncos defense finished third in the NFL against both the run and the pass. A lot of times defenses will be good at one aspect but not the other, but these Broncos are consistently good. The Broncos biggest focus on defense will be slowing down Ray Rice. The Colts didn't allow Rice to do much on the ground, but he killed them a 47 yard gain off a screen pass. Champ Bailey will likely line up against Torrey Smith, though he could also cover Anquan Boldin, who is coming off a monster game. Peyton Manning has dominated the Ravens throughout his career, and if Moreno has trouble running, the pressure will be on him. The Ravens pass defense has been a weakness all season, but they are also more healthy on defense than they have been in a long time. People want to keep talking about Manning's struggles in cold weather but I think that's overstated and won't be a factor. I think this game will be close because the Ravens are healthier and more like themselves. If it was in Baltimore I might even go with the Ravens, but with it in Denver I like the Broncos to survive a tough test.

Prediction: Denver 24, Baltimore 20


NFC Divisional Round: #3 Green Bay (12-5) at #2 San Francisco (11-4-1), San Francisco favored by 3

These two go old school and bring back their playoff rivalry from the 90s. The term rivalry is sort of used loosely though, as the Packers dominated the 49ers in the playoffs. They dominated them so much, that I grew to hate the Packers almost as much as I hate the Cowboys. It's been a rough week for me with the Redskins losing, RG3's injury, and then Notre Dame getting destroyed. If the 49ers were to once again have a season end at the hands of the Packers I might cry. You could argue that these are the two best teams in the NFC. For the 49ers to win they will have to get great games from Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore. Kap is the biggest question mark, as he makes his first ever playoff start. He has won in some hostile environments since becoming the starter, so he has shown he can handle pressure. However, the playoffs are a whole other level. The Packers are pretty strong against the pass so while Michael Crabtree and Randy Moss could still make some plays, it is Frank Gore that the 49ers will need to give at least 25 carries to. The Packers allowed 118 yards rushing per game, and Gore tore up their defense in the Week 1 meeting, averaging 7 yards a carry. The other big question for San Francisco, is can their defense regain its mojo? Justin Smith is battling a torn triceps, but is expected to play. The question is can he be effective? Ever since he was hurt, Aldon Smith has completely disappeared, as he has had to fight through double teams. The Packers were one of the worst teams in the league at allowing sacks, and it is paramount that the 49ers get pressure on Aaron Rodgers consistently. They just don't need the pressure for sacks but also so that Rodgers isn't allowed to get in a rhythm and throw to his insane amount of weapons. Those are the things that will really matter in the game. Forget about the stories the media wants to pump up, like Rodgers being a fan of the Niners, or still feeling slighted that San Francisco chose Alex Smith over him. It doesn't matter that Kaepernick was a Packers fan. Those are fun little storylines, but whichever team can exert their will on the other, will win the game. It is a great offense versus a great defense, very similar to the 49ers matchup against New Orleans at this time last year. Also, the kickers in this game could have a huge impact. Both David Akers and Mason Crosby have been in season long slumps and have the most misses by a kicker this season. The 49ers brought in Billy Cundiff, who is even worse than Akers, so all indications are that Akers will be the man tomorrow night. The game could come down to his or Crosby's leg. That is an even scarier thought for 49ers fans than this being Kap's first playoff game. I think Green Bay will get their points and their yards, but the 49ers will have a bend but don't break sort of defensive effort. I think Gore will run the ball well, calming Kap and allowing him to make the plays he is capable of making. I think this game will come down to the final minute, with the 49ers defense picking off Rodgers to secure the victory.


Prediction: San Francisco 24, Green Bay 23


NFC Divisional Round: #5 Seattle (12-5) at #1 Atlanta (13-3), Atlanta favored by 2 1/2

The Seahawks are the sexy pick to win this game and I understand why. They are playing very well, while in recent history the Falcons and Matt Ryan have been horrendous in the playoffs. The Falcons are also coming off a home loss to lowly Tampa Bay where they played their starters despite the game having no consequence on the standings to them. I was planning on picking the Seahawks but then two crucial injuries occurred for them in their Wild Card win against Washington. DE Chris Clemons and K Steven Haucschka both saw their seasons end. The Seahawks signed Ryan Longwell to replace Hauschka, and Longwell hasn't kicked all season. That may prove to be huge if this game is close as I predict it will be. People have suggested the Seahawks will be fine without Clemons and someone like Bruce Irvin can just rush the passer instead. But you can't tell me losing your best pass rusher is ever something you can just brush under the table. The Falcons have been considered a team that played above their heads all season and looking at their stats it is tough to argue. They are a horrible rushing team, and their defense is mediocre to bad against both the pass and the run. The Falcons were concerned about injuries John Abraham and Dunta Robinson suffered in the loss against Tampa, but it appears both will play. They are going to need them as they have the tall task of trying to slow down "Beast Mode" Marshawn Lynch. Someone will also have to keep their eye on Russell Wilson. The Seahawks passing game can be pretty underwhelming, but Russell is great at eluding pressure and making plays on the run. One area the Falcons haven't struggled is throwing the ball. Ryan has some excellent targets in Roddy White, Julio Jones and the ageless Tony Gonzalez. The Seahawks offense struggled against a pretty crappy Redskins defense, so I am not convinced that it really matters that the Falcons have struggled defensively. I think the Falcons offensive line, which has played great all season in pass protection can keep Ryan protected and allow the Falcons to move the ball offensively. I think that the Seahawks will move the ball but stall out in the red zone and that Longwell will miss some chances. It will be by the skin of their teeth but Ryan and Smith will finally get that elusive playoff victory.

Prediction: Atlanta 20, Seattle 16


AFC Divisional Round: #3 Houston (13-4) at #2 New England (12-4), New England favored by 9 1/2

You would probably be surprised to look above and see that Houston has a better record than New England by half a game. Your surprise would come from the fact that almost no one is giving the Texans a chance in hell of winning this game. A lot of that stems from the beat down New England put on Houston earlier this year, but where it mostly comes from for me is how poorly Houston has played for a little over a month. Now they did beat the Bengals last weekend but if you watched that game it was not a victory that should inspire much confidence. The Texans defense played decently but it was more the Bengals being unable to get out of their own way on offense. Offensively, Houston moved the ball pretty well but had to keep settling for field goals. When playing the Patriots you can't settle for field goals. Houston will have to keep the game close early on and get Arian Foster involved and effective right away. That will mean finding ways to avoid Vince Wilfork. The Texans just aren't built the right way to attack the Patriots defense. New England is terrible against the pass, a problem that has plagued them for a few years now. The Texans do have Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels, but they don't have a true #2 receiver that can make teams take their focus off those guys. Defensively, the Texans need to hope that JJ Watt can make an impact early and often. He has to be in Tom Brady's grill all day and not allow Brady to throw to his insane amount of weapons. Then the Texans have to find ways to account for Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Lloyd, even Deion Branch. The Patriots offense has even added a running game this season. When he isn't fumbling Stevan Ridley is churning out yards, and then their is the little engine that could, Danny Woodhead. I don't expect this game to be the blowout it was earlier this season, but the Texans are coming in with such little momentum that it is hard to envision them winning. Sure, it might motivate them a little more to hear no one giving them a chance, but that all goes out the window once the game starts. I expect the New England offense to move the ball as they wish and the Texans not have enough offense to counter it.

Prediction: New England 31, Houston 21


Last Week Against the Spread: 0-4
Overall Against the Spread: 119-133-7

Last Week Straight Up: 2-2
Overall Straight Up: 168-91-1

Cram Session (Bowl Edition) - 2013 BCS Championship

BCS National Championship Game

#1 Notre Dame (12-0) vs. #2 Alabama (12-1) in Miami, Florida

Kickoff is just hours away for the most anticipated Notre Dame game I have ever seen. Being an Irish fan for 20 years now, unfortunately big games have been far and few between. Sometimes I still have to pinch myself that this 12-0 dream season has really occurred. As has been the case all season long, the Irish come into this game with plenty of doubters. People still somehow think a 12-0 season against top tier competition is a fluke. They believe that Notre Dame will cower at the site of big, bad Alabama tonight and the Tide will cruise to their third national championship in four seasons. I'm definitely biased but I have a feeling this will be  the tense, exciting game that college football fans have been clamoring for this bowl season.

Notre Dame would not be in this position without their defense. They finished first in the country, allowing just 10.3 points per game. Their most celebrate player is Heisman runner-up, senior LB Manti Te'o. Haters can call it hype all they want, Te'o had an outstanding season. He finished with 103 tackles and an insane 7 interceptions. The Irish have plenty of other outstanding players on the defensive side of the ball. Joining Te'o at linebacker is Prince Shembo, who had 7 1/2 sacks this season. The Irish defensive front is dominant, a unit that brings the pressure and stops the run as well. Guys like Stephon Tuitt, Lance Nix and Kapron Lewis-Moore all had outstanding seasons. Offensively, the Irish have been up and down mostly based on what kind of play they receive from Everett Golson. Golson wasn't asked to do much, but came up big when needed in games at Oklahoma and at home against Pittsburgh. He was helped by a tremendous ground game, led by Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood. George Atkinson III is also capable of breaking off a big play. Golson's favorite receiving targets were senior TE Tyler Eifert and WR TJ Jones, with each finishing with 4 receiving touchdowns.

Alabama is built much the same way, a team with a dominant defense and an opportunistic offense. The Bama defense finished second in the country in points allowed per game at just 10.7. It was even more impressive because of the amount of talent they lost from their defense to the NFL last season. This year's top defensive players are LB C.J. Mosley and CB Dee Milliner. The Tide secondary has been seen as the defense's weakness this year, but what remains to be seen is whether Golson can make plays through the air to take advantage of that perceived weakness. The Crimson Tide certainly aren't slouches on offense, where they finished 13th in the nation in points per game. AJ McCarron is no stranger to the big stage and had an outstanding junior season, throwing 26 TDs and just 3 INTs. The Irish secondary will have their hands full with freshman receiver and native of Miami, Amari Cooper. Cooper led Bama with 53 catches and 9 TDs. But where Bama does most of their damage is on the ground. Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon each finished with over 1,000 yards rushing, while Lacy had 16 TDs and Yeldon had 11.

If people could see past their hatred for both of these teams they would notice that this should be a hell of a national championship game. Two great defenses facing each other, and both offenses hoping that they can dictate the pace. Bama has amazing running backs but will they find holes against the Irish massive defensive front? Can the Notre Dame offense, inconsistent all season, muster up enough points against the best defensive unit they will have seen all season? How will Everett Golson handle the pressure of this huge game? Will AJ McCarron continue to play mistake free football, or be the flustered player fans saw in the Tide's lone loss to Texas A&M. This game should be down and dirty and I believe will go down to the final minutes. If you aren't a fan of either team you can enjoy watching some great football, but if you are a fan of one of the teams as I am, this will be a nail biting affair the entire way. I haven't picked against the Irish all season, and I won't be starting now. I like the Irish to pull off the upset, making enough plays on offense, while dominating with their defense as they have all season long. Brian Kelly will return Notre Dame to national championship glory, joining Ara Parseghian and Lou Holtz as fellow Irish coaches to win a national title in their third season. In storybook fashion, Manti Te'o will end his career as the MVP of the game, putting in one final fantastic effort for the Irish.

Prediction: Notre Dame 20, Alabama 17

The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round

The playoffs are here! Teams have fought through the grind of a 16 game season and now just the 12 best teams are left standing. Three of the eight teams playing in Wild Card weekend are led by rookie signal callers. For the second straight season the Wild Card round will feature a game between rookie quarterbacks when RG3 leads the Redskins against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Christian Ponder and Matt Schaub aren't rookies but both will be making their playoff debuts. Andy Dalton of Cincinnati will be making his second career playoff start, while this is old hat for Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and Baltimore's Joe Flacco.


AFC Wild Card: #6 Cincinnati (10-6) at #3 Houston (12-4), Houston favored by 4 1/2

It's the rematch from last year that no one was clamoring for! Circumstances are a bit different this time but for the second straight year, the Bengals travel to Houston to take on the Texans in the Wild Card Round. This time the Texans will have Matt Schaub under center, although not having him last year didn't seem to matter when they crushed Cincinnati. The story from that game was the complete dominance of the Texans DE J.J. Watt. Watt completely turned the momentum of the game when he intercepted a Dalton pass and returned it for a touchdown. Watt will need to have a similar type of game as the Texans defense has struggled badly to close the year and could use a spark. The Bengals offense is serviceable but that isn't what they rely on to win games. The misnomer coming into this game is likely that the Texans are better defensively than Cincinnati, but the stats don't bear that out. The Bengals have a fearsome pass rush led by DT Geno Atkins and DE Michael Johnson and as a team finished third in the league in sacks. They are also very strong against the pass, which is key because the Texans are a strong passing team. Besides having one of the best wide receivers in football in Andre Johnson and a solid TE in Owen Daniels, what also helps the Texans pass game is RB Arian Foster. Foster had another impressive season, rushing for 1,424 yards and 15 TDs. The Bengals weren't able to slow Foster last year and that was one of the many reasons they got blown out. As I mentioned above while not dynamic, Cincinnati has some nice pieces on offense, most notably WR A.J. Green. The Texans pass defense is a weakness so Dalton will look to expose that with Green and his second favorite target TE Jermaine Gresham. They will give RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis his carries but with him averaging under 4 yards a carry this year and the Texans being tough against the run, it doesn't seem likely for him to have much of an impact. The Bengals were a terrific road team this season, going 6-2. They come into this game playing their best football, going 7-1 in the second half of the season after a 3-5 start. The Texans are exact opposites. They are playing their worst football of the season right now and it seems hard to imagine that they can just simply turn it on. I think the embarrassment of last year will serve Cincinnati well in this game and they will come out looking much more ready to play. I like Cincinnati to win their first playoff game in over 20 years, and complete the Texans shocking collapse.

Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Houston 20


NFC Wild Card: #6 Minnesota (10-6) at #3 Green Bay (11-5), Green Bay favored by 8

Last weekend the Vikings won a classic game at home against Green Bay to get themselves into the playoffs. The game was highlighted by the fantastic running of Adrian Peterson, who broke the 2,000 yard barrier and came just 9 yards short of Eric Dickerson's all-time rushing record. What might have gotten lost was how well Christian Ponder performed. Without Ponder playing at the level he did, the Vikings would have lost, even with Peterson's heroics. Ponder hasn't been a model of consistency and for the many reasons people aren't giving Minnesota a chance in this game, Ponder playing well for a second straight week seems to be people's go to. The Vikings will have to get another outstanding effort from Peterson, but that is likely the least of their concerns. For the Packers it is all about Aaron Rodgers. They have no running game to speak of and don't even really try to hide it. For what feels like the first time in forever, Rodgers should have his full complement of weapons with Randall Cobb returning after missing last week's game. Greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson are finally healthy, add James Jones and Jermichael Finley to that list and the amount of weapons Rodgers has is ridiculous. The Vikings did a nice job of getting pressure on Rodgers last week, and as always the player to watch defensively for Minnesota will be DE Jared Allen. The Packers got some good news of their own on the defensive end as S Charles Woodson is expected to play for the first time since Week 7. The Packers were lit up in the air by Ponder last weekend so any extra help they can get will be useful to them. People forget, but the first time these teams played this year in Lambeau the Vikings controlled the bulk of the game. It was a costly red zone interception by Ponder that completely turned things and led to the Packers victory. Also, the Packers have lost four of their last six home playoff games so Lambeau Field isn't quite the intimidating place to play as some might believe. All that being said, asking the Vikings to beat Green Bay two weeks in a row is quite a bit. Also, expecting Christian Ponder to play at the level he did last weekend seems unrealistic. I think the Vikings can keep it close, but won't be able to do enough to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Green Bay 28, Minnesota 21


AFC Wild Card: #5 Indianapolis (11-5) at #4 Baltimore (10-6), Baltimore favored by 6 1/2

This game will be filled with emotion. Their will be emotion from the fans as they have a special place in their hearts for hating Indianapolis. Of course, that is because the Indianapolis Colts used to be the Baltimore Colts. The Colts will be emotional, not just because for a lot of their players this will be their first playoff game, but also because of coach Chuck Pagano being back. The Ravens will be emotional as LB Ray Lewis announced his retirement earlier this week and in all likelihood this will be his last home game of his career. That emotion will shine through for a little bit but then the game will start and all of that goes out the window. Neither team is known for their defense, something that almost seems blasphemous to say when it comes to the Ravens, but its true. Baltimore was 17th against the pass this season and 20th against the run. The good news for the Ravens is that for the first time this season they expect to have Lewis, LB Terrell Suggs and S Bernard Pollard all on the field at the same time. With the decline of their defense that has increased the pressure on Joe Flacco which has had mixed results. Flacco didn't play well enough to allow Cam Cameron to keep his job as offensive coordinator but he wasn't terrible either. Flacco has some solid weapons in Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith but one of the things that ran Cameron out of town was his penchant for forgetting he had RB Ray Rice. Rice is small which is perhaps why Cameron didn't want to rely on him too much, but he is a game changer when he has the ball in his hands. The Colts defense will need to get pressure on Flacco and still has old reliables Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. They aren't quite the pass rushers they use to be, but still are pretty damn good. Andrew Luck has received a ton of hype and praise for the Colts turn around. He has played well for a rookie and at least recently has avoided throwing the interceptions that plagued him most of the season. But still, he is not accurate and is not quite the strength of the team he has been made out to be. People say he doesn't have a running game but that is because Bruce Arians has chosen to ride Luck's back. Vick Ballard their leading rusher averaged almost 4 yards a carry when given a chance. WR Reggie Wayne had a career resurgence this year and rookie T.Y. Hilton has come out of nowhere to have a very strong season. I think this will be the highest scoring game of the weekend and I was tempted to take the Colts with Baltimore struggling. However, I think it can't be understated that this is Luck's first playoff start and things will be overwhelming to him. I expect him to throw a few interceptions. I also expect the much maligned Flacco to play well, as the playoffs are nothing new to him. In fact, this is the 5th straight season he will be starting a playoff game. Flacco will play better and smarter than Luck and that will be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Baltimore 30, Indianapolis 24


NFC Wild Card: #5 Seattle (11-5) at #4 Washington (10-6), Seattle favored by 3

Saving the best for last, Seattle at Washington is the best game of Wild Card weekend. It features the two hottest teams in the NFC. The Skins have won seven straight games while the Seahawks have won five in a row. Forget Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson is the one who should be in conversation with RG3 for rookie of the year. Wilson tied a rookie record with 26 passing TDs and during the Seahawks winning streak he has thrown 9 TDs versus just 2 INTs. He is terrific at throwing on the run and can be near impossible to catch at times. He is also helped by the beast he has at running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has gone over 100 yards in four straight games but will be tested by the Skins rushing defense that finished fifth in the league. What Lynch does in this game will be the key because if Washington slows him down that will put all the pressure on Wilson. You have to think the Skins will key in on Lynch and trust their passing defense. The pass defense finished 30th but has played much better of late, highlighted by a strong performance against Dallas last weekend. The Seahawks also don't have any wide receivers that really scare you. Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin have been serviceable but the Skins have shut down better receivers in recent weeks. The Seattle defense has been highly touted all season and with good reason. CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner are perhaps the best cornerback duo in the league and will make things tough for Skins receivers Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan. The Skins have other weapons at receiver and maybe Santana Moss could find some openings with Browner and Sherman keyed in on others. RG3 still doesn't appear to be 100% from his knee injury and had his worse passing game of the season last week. Thankfully, RB Alfred Morris and the Skins rushing attack were there to pick up the slack. Morris will be called upon again this weekend to carry the load and watching him match up with Seattle's physical defense will be fun. If you matched these teams up side by side they are pretty close, but Seattle would likely get the edge because of how much better their defense is than Washington's. What tilts things to me is that the game will be in Washington and Seattle struggled most of the season on the road. They did win their final two road games but this is a team that is far more dangerous in Seattle than elsewhere. They sort of remind me of the Saints from last year in that regard. Any Skins fan knows that this game will come down to the final few plays and will be a nail biter. I think the Skins will win in the most dramatic fashion possible, with Kai Forbath kicking a game winning field goal as time expires.

Prediction: Washington 23, Seattle 20


Last Week Against the Spread: 7-9
Overall Against the Spread: 119-130-7

Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 166-89-1

Cram Session - Bowl Edition

As expected last nights Sugar Bowl was a rout. However, what wasn't expected was Louisville being the ones to put the beat down on Florida. Louisville dominated the game from the start and made the Gators look really bad. Tonight's Fiesta Bowl between Oregon and Kansas State is the most anticipated of the BCS bowls outside of the national championship game. Both these teams were in contention all year for a national title game appearance. After Florida's embarrassing performance last night, this game pits the two best teams in the country besides Alabama and Notre Dame.

Fiesta Bowl

#4 Oregon (11-1) vs. #5 Kansas State (11-1), in Tempe, Arizona

Both of these teams are mostly known for their amazing offenses. The Ducks quick fire offense led by freshman QB Marcus Mariota (30 TDs, 6 INTs), and RB Kenjon Barner (1,624 yards rushing, 21 TDs),  and dual threat RB De'Anthony Thomas (686 yards rushing, 11 TDs) averaged an astounding 50.8 points per game. The Wildcats weren't too far behind them, averaging 40.7 points per game led by Heisman finalist QB Colin Klein. Klein isn't known for his passing prowess with just 15 TDs versus 7 INTs, but he is an elite runner. He finished second on the Wildcats with 890 yards rushing and led the team with 22 rushing TDs. Klein gets all the pub but RB John Hubert led the Wildcats with 892 yards rushing this season. So as you can see, plenty of offensive firepower. But what often is overlooked with these teams is that they are both pretty good defensively. The Ducks gave up just 22 points per game and were led by their two best defensive players, LB Dion Jordan and CB Ifo Ekpre-Olumu, who has a penchant for forcing fumbles. Kansas State was just a little better, giving up 21.1 points per game this season. Their defense features the Big 12 defensive player of the year and second team All-American, Arthur Brown. The Wildcats were strong against the run most of the season, save for their one loss this year to Baylor. The Bears gashed them on the ground and the Wildcats didn't know what hit them. Kansas State has to limit Barner and Thomas' big play abilities to keep Kansas State in this game. Even if they are successful with that, Mariota could gash them through the air. One area I worry about for the Ducks is the distractions that might be caused by their coach Chip Kelly's name being attached to so many potential NFL openings. The Stanford Cardinal faced the same thing a few years ago with Jim Harbaugh and were fine, so it should be nothing. The Wildcats are coached by one of the best coaches in college football history, Bill Snyder. With him on the sideline, Kansas State has a chance in any game. With two defenses that are pretty evenly matched, I don't think Kansas State has the offensive firepower to keep up with Oregon. Oregon's offense was slowed just once this season, in their loss to Stanford. The Wildcats are good on defense, and I don't think Oregon will hang 50 on them, but I don't believe they are good enough to keep Oregon under 30. This should be an entertaining game from start to finish, with the Ducks eventually prevailing.

Prediction: Oregon 37, Kansas State 28

Overall Record: 105-25

The Hail Mary - Looking Back

I put a lot of time and effort into my NFL previews back in August so I thought it would be fun to take a look back and see how I did.


NFC East (My Predictions)

1. *Philadelphia 10-6, 2. New York Giants 9-7, 3. Dallas 7-9, 4. Washington 6-10

NFC East (Actual Results)

1. *Washington 10-6, 2. New York Giants 9-7, 3. Dallas 8-8, 4. Philadelphia 4-12

The Verdict: Like everyone else I was way off on Philadelphia. Nailed the Giants record and them missing the playoffs, basically got Dallas right, and was happy to be wrong about Washington.


NFC North (My Predictions)

1. *Green Bay 12-4, 2. *Detroit 10-6, 3. Chicago 9-7, 4. Minnesota 6-10

NFC North (Actual Results)

1. *Green Bay 11-5, 2. *Minnesota 10-6, 3. Chicago 10-6, 4. Detroit 4-12

The Verdict: Spot on with Green Bay as if they hadn't been screwed in Seattle they would have gone 12-4. Was almost exactly right about Chicago, while missing badly on Detroit and Minnesota. That'll teach me for ever having faith in the sorry Lions.


NFC South (My Predictions)

1. *New Orleans 10-6, 2. *Carolina 9-7, 3. Atlanta 8-8, 4. Tampa Bay 4-12

NFC South (Actual Results)

1. *Atlanta 13-3, 2. Carolina 7-9, 3. New Orleans 7-9, 4. Tampa Bay 7-9

The Verdict: Knew the whole Bountygate fiasco would have an effect on the Saints but underestimated it. Carolina disappointed many people. The Falcons proved me wrong although many still doubt if they are as good as their record indicates. Tampa was better than I thought but still ended up in last.


NFC West (My Predictions)

1. *San Francisco 11-5, 2. Seattle 7-9, 3. Arizona 6-10, 4. St. Louis 4-12

NFC West (Actual Results)

1. *San Francisco 11-4-1, 2. *Seattle 11-5, 3. St. Louis 7-8-1, 4. Arizona 5-11

The Verdict: Pretty much nailed the 49ers, and severely underrated Seattle. Pretty much got Arizona right, while Jeff Fisher improved the Rams sooner than I expected.


In the NFC I correctly predicted 2 (Green Bay, San Francisco) out of the 6 playoff teams. Green Bay and San Francisco could meet up in the playoffs as I predicted, however it would be in the Divisional Round instead of the NFC Championship. My pick of the Packers to represent the NFC still remains in play.


AFC East (My Predictions)

1. *New England 11-5, 2. Buffalo 9-7, 3. New York Jets 6-10, 4. Miami 6-10

AFC East (Actual Results)

1. *New England 12-4, 2. Miami 7-9, 3. New York Jets 6-10, 4. Buffalo 6-10

The Verdict: Basically nailed New England, gave too much credence to the Bills additions on defense, and basically called the Jets and Dolphins seasons.


AFC North (My Predictions)

1. *Pittsburgh 11-5, 2. *Baltimore 10-6, 3. Cincinnati 7-9, 4. Cleveland 3-13

AFC North (Actual Results)

1. *Baltimore 10-6, 2. *Cincinnati 10-6, 3. Pittsburgh 8-8, 4. Cleveland 5-11

The Verdict: Pittsburgh's season might have been different had Roethlisberger remained healthy all season. Guessed the Ravens record correctly, while the Bengals proved me wrong. The Brows were bad but not as terrible as I suspected.


AFC South (My Predictions)

1. *Tennessee 9-7, 2. Houston 9-7, 3. Indianapolis 7-9, 4. Jacksonville 4-12

 AFC South (Actual Results)

1. *Houston 12-4, 2. *Indianapolis 11-5, 3. Tennessee 6-10, 4. Jacksonville 2-14

The Verdict: Took a risk predicting the Titans would win the South and it backfired. Houston lived up to their preseason hype, while the Titans stunk. I figured the Colts would be much improved but never would have guessed 11 wins. I actually gave the Jags too much credit with a 4 win prediction.


AFC West (My Predictions)

1. *Denver 10-6, 2. *San Diego 10-6, 3. Kansas City 8-8, 4. Oakland 5-11

AFC West (Actual Results)

1. *Denver 13-3, 2. San Diego 7-9, 3. Oakland 4-12, 4. Kansas City 2-14

The Verdict: The AFC West was putrid. People should keep that in mind while picking Denver to win the Super Bowl. I underestimated how good Manning would make Denver. I swore last year to never pick San Diego to make the playoffs again as long as Norv was coach and should have listened to myself. I also was down on Kansas City but read enough people hyping them that I at least predicted a .500 season, boy was I wrong. Pretty much spot on with my prediction for it to be a long season in Oakland.


In the AFC I correctly predicted 3 (New England, Denver, Baltimore) of the 6 playoff teams. My AFC Championship game prediction of Denver and New England still remains possible, as does my pick of New England representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Before the season I predicted the Packers to defeat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. The fan in me doesn't want that to happen, but my preseason prediction for the Super Bowl remains very much in play.

Cram Session - Bowl Edition

The BCS bowls got off to a slow start yesterday. Wisconsin/Stanford was mostly unwatchable and boring, while as expected Florida State received little resistance from Northern Illinois. Tonight, the Sugar Bowl takes center stage as the two touchdown underdog Louisville Cardinal try to make things interesting against the Florida Gators.

Sugar Bowl

#21 Louisville (10-2) vs. #3 Florida (11-1), in New Orleans, Louisiana

Let's be honest, no one is giving Louisville a chance in hell of winning this game. Despite being in the Big East, a BCS conference, they somehow went the entire season without playing a ranked team. People rightfully think very little of the Big East, which in 2014 will no longer have a reserved seat at the table and may not even exist. There are two things that give the Cardinals a sliver of hope tonight in New Orleans. Their head coach and former Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong, and their quarterback, the man with a great football name, Teddy Bridgewater. Strong is one of the most respected coaches in the business and surprised many by choosing to stay at Louisville during the recent coaching carousel. His Florida ties can be seen all over the Cardinals roster, as a  lot of their players are from Florida. Bridgewater was excellent this season, throwing 25 TDs and just 7 INTs with an otherworldly completion percentage of 69%. Bridgewater's favorite target is WR DeVante Parker. Parker led the Cardinals with 9 touchdowns and has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games. WR Damian Coepland led the team in catches this season with 48. Bridgewater hasn't seen a defense like Florida's all year so he will need to get plenty of help from leading rusher Jeremy Wright. Wright's numbers fell off a cliff when his backfield mate, Senorise Perry was lost for the season. In his last three games he has rushed for just 89 yards on 48 carries. He will have to do way more and find holes somewhere for the Cardinals to have a chance tonight. The Gators surprising season was all about their defense. They allowed just 12.9 points per game, giving up just 5 passing touchdowns this season, while intercepting opposing quarterbacks 19 times. Safety Matt Elam is the player to watch on the Gators defense and expect to hear his name multiple times tonight. Led by QB Jeff Driskell, the Gators are pretty terrible at throwing the ball but boast a potent rushing attack. Driskell can break off some big runs himself, but the power back is senior Mike Gillislee. Gillislee had his most impressive performance in the season finale at Florida State. Against the Seminoles stout defense he ran for 140 yards and 2 TDs in the Gators win. The Cardinals were a respectful 52nd against the run this season. The Gators make their game plan pretty clear and only pass when they have to. If Gillislee gets going then the Cardinals will be at the mercy of the Gators offense. In order to be successful against the Florida defense you have to have multiple dynamic players. Bridgewater alone won't be enough for Louisville and because of that the Gators should have their way.

Prediction: Florida 34, Louisville 17

Overall Record: 105-24