The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round

The playoffs are here! Teams have fought through the grind of a 16 game season and now just the 12 best teams are left standing. Three of the eight teams playing in Wild Card weekend are led by rookie signal callers. For the second straight season the Wild Card round will feature a game between rookie quarterbacks when RG3 leads the Redskins against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Christian Ponder and Matt Schaub aren't rookies but both will be making their playoff debuts. Andy Dalton of Cincinnati will be making his second career playoff start, while this is old hat for Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and Baltimore's Joe Flacco.


AFC Wild Card: #6 Cincinnati (10-6) at #3 Houston (12-4), Houston favored by 4 1/2

It's the rematch from last year that no one was clamoring for! Circumstances are a bit different this time but for the second straight year, the Bengals travel to Houston to take on the Texans in the Wild Card Round. This time the Texans will have Matt Schaub under center, although not having him last year didn't seem to matter when they crushed Cincinnati. The story from that game was the complete dominance of the Texans DE J.J. Watt. Watt completely turned the momentum of the game when he intercepted a Dalton pass and returned it for a touchdown. Watt will need to have a similar type of game as the Texans defense has struggled badly to close the year and could use a spark. The Bengals offense is serviceable but that isn't what they rely on to win games. The misnomer coming into this game is likely that the Texans are better defensively than Cincinnati, but the stats don't bear that out. The Bengals have a fearsome pass rush led by DT Geno Atkins and DE Michael Johnson and as a team finished third in the league in sacks. They are also very strong against the pass, which is key because the Texans are a strong passing team. Besides having one of the best wide receivers in football in Andre Johnson and a solid TE in Owen Daniels, what also helps the Texans pass game is RB Arian Foster. Foster had another impressive season, rushing for 1,424 yards and 15 TDs. The Bengals weren't able to slow Foster last year and that was one of the many reasons they got blown out. As I mentioned above while not dynamic, Cincinnati has some nice pieces on offense, most notably WR A.J. Green. The Texans pass defense is a weakness so Dalton will look to expose that with Green and his second favorite target TE Jermaine Gresham. They will give RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis his carries but with him averaging under 4 yards a carry this year and the Texans being tough against the run, it doesn't seem likely for him to have much of an impact. The Bengals were a terrific road team this season, going 6-2. They come into this game playing their best football, going 7-1 in the second half of the season after a 3-5 start. The Texans are exact opposites. They are playing their worst football of the season right now and it seems hard to imagine that they can just simply turn it on. I think the embarrassment of last year will serve Cincinnati well in this game and they will come out looking much more ready to play. I like Cincinnati to win their first playoff game in over 20 years, and complete the Texans shocking collapse.

Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Houston 20


NFC Wild Card: #6 Minnesota (10-6) at #3 Green Bay (11-5), Green Bay favored by 8

Last weekend the Vikings won a classic game at home against Green Bay to get themselves into the playoffs. The game was highlighted by the fantastic running of Adrian Peterson, who broke the 2,000 yard barrier and came just 9 yards short of Eric Dickerson's all-time rushing record. What might have gotten lost was how well Christian Ponder performed. Without Ponder playing at the level he did, the Vikings would have lost, even with Peterson's heroics. Ponder hasn't been a model of consistency and for the many reasons people aren't giving Minnesota a chance in this game, Ponder playing well for a second straight week seems to be people's go to. The Vikings will have to get another outstanding effort from Peterson, but that is likely the least of their concerns. For the Packers it is all about Aaron Rodgers. They have no running game to speak of and don't even really try to hide it. For what feels like the first time in forever, Rodgers should have his full complement of weapons with Randall Cobb returning after missing last week's game. Greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson are finally healthy, add James Jones and Jermichael Finley to that list and the amount of weapons Rodgers has is ridiculous. The Vikings did a nice job of getting pressure on Rodgers last week, and as always the player to watch defensively for Minnesota will be DE Jared Allen. The Packers got some good news of their own on the defensive end as S Charles Woodson is expected to play for the first time since Week 7. The Packers were lit up in the air by Ponder last weekend so any extra help they can get will be useful to them. People forget, but the first time these teams played this year in Lambeau the Vikings controlled the bulk of the game. It was a costly red zone interception by Ponder that completely turned things and led to the Packers victory. Also, the Packers have lost four of their last six home playoff games so Lambeau Field isn't quite the intimidating place to play as some might believe. All that being said, asking the Vikings to beat Green Bay two weeks in a row is quite a bit. Also, expecting Christian Ponder to play at the level he did last weekend seems unrealistic. I think the Vikings can keep it close, but won't be able to do enough to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Green Bay 28, Minnesota 21


AFC Wild Card: #5 Indianapolis (11-5) at #4 Baltimore (10-6), Baltimore favored by 6 1/2

This game will be filled with emotion. Their will be emotion from the fans as they have a special place in their hearts for hating Indianapolis. Of course, that is because the Indianapolis Colts used to be the Baltimore Colts. The Colts will be emotional, not just because for a lot of their players this will be their first playoff game, but also because of coach Chuck Pagano being back. The Ravens will be emotional as LB Ray Lewis announced his retirement earlier this week and in all likelihood this will be his last home game of his career. That emotion will shine through for a little bit but then the game will start and all of that goes out the window. Neither team is known for their defense, something that almost seems blasphemous to say when it comes to the Ravens, but its true. Baltimore was 17th against the pass this season and 20th against the run. The good news for the Ravens is that for the first time this season they expect to have Lewis, LB Terrell Suggs and S Bernard Pollard all on the field at the same time. With the decline of their defense that has increased the pressure on Joe Flacco which has had mixed results. Flacco didn't play well enough to allow Cam Cameron to keep his job as offensive coordinator but he wasn't terrible either. Flacco has some solid weapons in Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith but one of the things that ran Cameron out of town was his penchant for forgetting he had RB Ray Rice. Rice is small which is perhaps why Cameron didn't want to rely on him too much, but he is a game changer when he has the ball in his hands. The Colts defense will need to get pressure on Flacco and still has old reliables Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. They aren't quite the pass rushers they use to be, but still are pretty damn good. Andrew Luck has received a ton of hype and praise for the Colts turn around. He has played well for a rookie and at least recently has avoided throwing the interceptions that plagued him most of the season. But still, he is not accurate and is not quite the strength of the team he has been made out to be. People say he doesn't have a running game but that is because Bruce Arians has chosen to ride Luck's back. Vick Ballard their leading rusher averaged almost 4 yards a carry when given a chance. WR Reggie Wayne had a career resurgence this year and rookie T.Y. Hilton has come out of nowhere to have a very strong season. I think this will be the highest scoring game of the weekend and I was tempted to take the Colts with Baltimore struggling. However, I think it can't be understated that this is Luck's first playoff start and things will be overwhelming to him. I expect him to throw a few interceptions. I also expect the much maligned Flacco to play well, as the playoffs are nothing new to him. In fact, this is the 5th straight season he will be starting a playoff game. Flacco will play better and smarter than Luck and that will be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Baltimore 30, Indianapolis 24


NFC Wild Card: #5 Seattle (11-5) at #4 Washington (10-6), Seattle favored by 3

Saving the best for last, Seattle at Washington is the best game of Wild Card weekend. It features the two hottest teams in the NFC. The Skins have won seven straight games while the Seahawks have won five in a row. Forget Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson is the one who should be in conversation with RG3 for rookie of the year. Wilson tied a rookie record with 26 passing TDs and during the Seahawks winning streak he has thrown 9 TDs versus just 2 INTs. He is terrific at throwing on the run and can be near impossible to catch at times. He is also helped by the beast he has at running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has gone over 100 yards in four straight games but will be tested by the Skins rushing defense that finished fifth in the league. What Lynch does in this game will be the key because if Washington slows him down that will put all the pressure on Wilson. You have to think the Skins will key in on Lynch and trust their passing defense. The pass defense finished 30th but has played much better of late, highlighted by a strong performance against Dallas last weekend. The Seahawks also don't have any wide receivers that really scare you. Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin have been serviceable but the Skins have shut down better receivers in recent weeks. The Seattle defense has been highly touted all season and with good reason. CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner are perhaps the best cornerback duo in the league and will make things tough for Skins receivers Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan. The Skins have other weapons at receiver and maybe Santana Moss could find some openings with Browner and Sherman keyed in on others. RG3 still doesn't appear to be 100% from his knee injury and had his worse passing game of the season last week. Thankfully, RB Alfred Morris and the Skins rushing attack were there to pick up the slack. Morris will be called upon again this weekend to carry the load and watching him match up with Seattle's physical defense will be fun. If you matched these teams up side by side they are pretty close, but Seattle would likely get the edge because of how much better their defense is than Washington's. What tilts things to me is that the game will be in Washington and Seattle struggled most of the season on the road. They did win their final two road games but this is a team that is far more dangerous in Seattle than elsewhere. They sort of remind me of the Saints from last year in that regard. Any Skins fan knows that this game will come down to the final few plays and will be a nail biter. I think the Skins will win in the most dramatic fashion possible, with Kai Forbath kicking a game winning field goal as time expires.

Prediction: Washington 23, Seattle 20


Last Week Against the Spread: 7-9
Overall Against the Spread: 119-130-7

Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 166-89-1