The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals feature the renewal of a new school rivalry, and the renewal of an old school rivalry. The Bulls and Heat meet in the playoffs for the second time in three years, while the Knicks and Pacers renew their classic rivalry from the 90's. The Heat decimated the Milwaukee Bucks in four games, while the Bulls overcame tons of injuries and sickness to knock off the Brooklyn Nets in seven. The Knicks earned their first playoff series win in 13 seasons, while the Pacers got past the Hawks in the series no one watched. On paper, the East seems to be Miami's to lose, but sports tends to always be unpredictable. #1 Miami Heat vs. #5 Chicago Bulls
When the series tips off tonight the Heat will be playing their first game in eight days. The Bulls just finished off their First Round series two nights ago and flew straight to Miami after defeating the Nets. Needless to say, the Heat will be much more rested than Chicago. That would already serve as quite the advantage but when you add in the injuries that the Bulls are facing with Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich, it makes that advantage even greater.
The Heat are mostly a juggernaut without weakness, except for their lack of size and rebounding. However, as I have documented many times their talent seems to overcome that and make it irrelevant. In this series against Chicago that won't even really be an issue as the Bulls aren't an overwhelmingly large team, outside of Joakim Noah. What may give the Heat some issue is the Bulls defense, which is one of the best in the league. That defense showed signs of being worn down, and tired though as they had to play a lot of guys who aren't part of their regular rotation. To have any shot of making this a series, the Bulls will have to get Deng and Hinrich back at some point. Otherwise, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and company will have their way. I think Noah can limit Chris Bosh's effectiveness but as long as James and Wade play well, that won't matter. The Bulls will also have to make sure they don't leave Ray Allen alone on the perimeter, as he can still do plenty of damage from downtown.
Chicago will have to play perfect this entire series and that means that Nate Robinson, Marco Bellinelli, and Noah will have to continue to play over their heads. Even guys like Jimmy Butler and Nazr Mohammed made huge contributions in the series win against Brooklyn. Perhaps the most key player for Chicago is Carlos Boozer. Boozer had trouble getting in a rhythm against Brooklyn as their bigs constantly had him in foul trouble. This will be a different series for him as Miami doesn't have as much height, but they have much more athleticism, so Boozer will have to play top notch defense. Anyone talking about the possibility of Derrick Rose returning for this series, just please stop. He isn't playing this year, and the Bulls stopped counting on him coming back long ago.
I see a lot of people predicting a sweep, which to me completely discounts the coaching edge Chicago has with Tom Thibodeau going against Miami's Erik Spoelstra. Not saying that Spoelstra is a bad coach, just that Thibodeau is a great coach and would have an advantage against almost everyone. This Bulls team plays with a ton of passion and adding having a chip on their shoulder makes them dangerous. I definitely believe they can make Miami sweat and steal a game or two, but I'd be crazy to pick against the Heat.
Prediction: Heat over Bulls, 4-2
#2 New York Knicks vs. #3 Indiana Pacers
This series tipped off yesterday and to the surprise of many, the Pacers raced to a relatively easy win at the Garden. Most people were surprised because they haven't bothered watching or paying attention to the Pacers all season. The Pacers are a very physical team, and for a team so reliant on jump shooting like the Knicks, that will pose some problems. The Pacers play tough defense and rebound well.
A key battle in this series will be the battle of the big men between the Pacers Roy Hibbert and the Knicks Tyson Chandler. Yesterday, Hibbert dominated Chandler on the glass and offensively. The Knicks will be beaten rather easily if Carmelo Anthony continues to struggle. He played poorly to end the Boston series and that carried over yesterday, with a 10-28 shooting performance. The Knicks other important shooter, J.R. Smith was just 4-15 yesterday. If the Knicks don't find a way to get those guys going or find some better looks, this series will be over quickly. The Knicks best player on the court yesterday was Raymond Felton. Felton shot the ball well and also played very good defense on Pacers point guard George Hill. The Pacers best player, Paul George struggled with his shot but as all good players do, found other ways to score, and for him that was by getting to the line.
The Pacers second best player, David West played very well yesterday and the Knicks will have to hope that Kenyon Martin can give them some quality minutes and play West tight on defense. For the Knicks to be successful, their perimeter guys will have to get going, which can open some things up for Chandler inside. If the Pacers dominate the paint like they did yesterday, it won't matter how well Anthony or Smith shoot. The Pacers also received a huge boost from their bench yesterday with some great play by D.J. Augustin.
I think that the Knicks can turn things around in this series, even after yesterday's dispirited performance. This is a series where I expect to see the road teams steal a few, ultimately forcing a Game 7 at the Garden, which would be electric. But in a surprise twist, I like this Pacers team to win that Game 7 and move on to the Eastern Conference Finals. They are the definition of team, and can hit you from all over. In other words, a very dangerous, playoff ready team.
Prediction: Pacers over Knicks, 4-3
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