2013 NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Finals

The "trash talk" has already begun between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers as they meet in the playoffs for the second straight year. Pacers coach Frank Vogel didn't kiss the Heat's ass enough for King Lebron James liking, so he had a little hissy fit about it. The Pacers pushed the Heat hard last season, going up 2-1 in their Eastern Conference Semi-Finals series, before dropping the final three games. Do they have what it takes this season to finish the job they started and upset the Heat?


#1 Miami Heat vs. #3 Indiana Pacers

Literally, the single biggest reason that people give the Pacers a chance in this series is Roy Hibbert. The Heat have no one that can match up with Hibbert. Please don't tell me that Chris Bosh, James Jones, Joel Anthony or Udonis Haslem can. Hibbert is a beast compared to those three. The Pacers will dominate the boards in this series, no doubt about it. If the Heat aren't hitting their shots at strong rate, they could lose the series. Now that seems pretty obvious, but in this series, playing strong defense won't be enough for the Heat to win. They were able to score some points against a strong Bulls defense, but that Bulls team was missing many pieces. Also, they let a depleted Bulls team have some pretty strong offensive showings against them.

The edge at point guard goes the Pacers, although George Hill did suffer a concussion in the series against the Knicks, so he may not be all the way back. He played 42 minutes in the Game 6 clincher, but struggled, shooting just 2-10 from the field. Mario Chalmers is always hit or miss for the Heat. He either randomly breaks out a strong game or you usually barely notice him on the court. At shooting guard of course the Heat have the advantage with Dwyane Wade, but its not as far a gap as usual. Wade has been hobbled, and save for the last half of Game 5 against Bulls he was basically ineffective. Lance Stephenson typically doesn't contribute a ton but busted out for 25 points in the Game 6 win against New York.

A great one on one matchup to watch in this series is LeBron James going against Paul George. You don't always get to see each team's best players go up against one another but that is the case in this series. Can James limit George's effectiveness, as George is a highly consistent scorer? Will George be able to slow down LeBron and force James into some turnovers? George is very good at creative turnovers on the defensive end, averaging almost 2.3 steals per game in his last 10 games. Of course, playing LeBron is an entirely different animal, and if LeBron is already feeling a bit slighted, watch out. As mentioned above, the interior battle could be a huge mismatch for Indiana, not just with Hibbert but also with David West. The Heat will have to find answers for Hibbert and West, or the Pacers will be content with feeding the ball inside all series.

Coming off the bench for Heat you will see Ray Allen, who is coming off a mostly forgettable series against the Bulls. Also, Shane Battier receives a good amount of times, while Norris Cole and Chris Anderson see some spot duty. Anthony and Jones have basically disappeared from the rotation but perhaps we will see more of them this series. The bench isn't the Pacers strong suit, with only Tyler Hansbrough or D.J. Augustin being guys they can somewhat rely on. If either team gets contributions out of their bench in this series, it could be the difference maker.

The Heat blew out the Bulls in two games but otherwise really struggled with a very depleted Chicago team. The Pacers are without Danny Granger but have been that way for basically the entire season and still won 49 games. Basketball is about matchups and the Pacers are a tough draw for the Heat. Miami is the best team of the four remaining but I think the Pacers can challenge them. Especially, when they play at home in Indiana, where they are 6-0 in the playoffs. In fact, something will have to give because the Heat are currently 4-0 on the road in the playoffs. I think the Pacers can get this series to a seventh game, before LeBron and company close them out.

Prediction: Heat over Pacers, 4-3

2013 NBA Playoffs - Western Conference Finals

One half of the Western Conference finalists is as expected, the San Antonio Spurs. But the other half has crashed the party, the Memphis Grizzlies. Now who knows if the Grizzlies would have gotten past the Thunder with Russell Westbrook, it doesn't matter. What does matter is that the Grizzlies are playing outstanding basketball, and in many people's minds will be the favorites in this series. That is because two years ago as an up and coming 8 seed the Grizzlies throttle the #1 seed Spurs in the First Round of the playoffs. Can the Spurs get their revenge two years later, and make it back to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2007?


#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies

This series will be a clash in styles and philosophy. The Spurs still have that tag of being boring but they are actually a fast-paced, high scoring team. The Grizzlies are a bruising, grind it out style of team. They win games by keeping their opponents in the 80s and low 90s. They dictated the series against the Thunder and Oklahoma City wasn't able to overcome the Grizzlies defensive toughness. The Spurs will have more reliable offensive weapons than the Thunder, who had to rely way too much on Kevin Durant. The Spurs get scoring from all of their key players, and when one guy struggles, like Manu Ginobli did in the Game 6 win against Golden State, other bench guys can pick up the slack, like a Gary Neal who had 12 points in 8 minutes last night. While the Spurs are much more offensive oriented than the Grizzlies, they do play good defense. They took control of the Warriors series as they eventually wore out Golden State's shooters.

There will be some great individual matchups in this series, highlighted by the Grizzlies Zach Randolph going against the Spurs Tim Duncan. Duncan has seemed rejuvenated this season, but might face his toughest challenge yet with the bruising Randolph. The other battle of the bigs will be between Marc Gasol and Tiago Splitter. This is where the Grizzlies have the biggest advantage to me. Gasol is such a complete player, and has more mental toughness than his brother Pau. He doesn't shy from the big moment, as evidenced by his series clinching shot in Game 5 against the Thunder. He is a much better offensive player than Splitter, and a better defensive player. Perhaps, Gregg Popovich will give DaJuan Blair some more minutes in this series to try to combat Randolph and Gasol.

The guard battle will be Tony Parker, Danny Green, and Manu Ginobli going against Mike Conley, Tony Allen, and Jerryd Bayless. Conley is playing the best basketball of his career in these playoffs and took the Thunder's Reggie Jackson to school in the Conference Semi-Finals. Allen made life miserable for Kevin Durant, and in this series he will be expected to stop Ginobli and Green from cashing in on the open three point looks they love so much. Bayless has been mostly steady coming off the bench for Memphis, which is important, since one of the Grizzlies weaknesses is their lack of depth.

Memphis is playing like a team that is more confident than ever and like they are destined to make that leap to the NBA Finals this season. Matchup wise they have the edge over the Spurs in different areas that I think will help push them past San Antonio. It will be a battle and should be a fun series to watch, but their leaders, Randolph and Gasol will prove to be the difference as the Grizzlies earn their first ever trip to the NBA Finals.

Prediction: Grizzlies over Spurs, 4-3

2013 NBA Playoffs - Western Conference Semi-Finals

It has seemed destined to be Oklahoma City and San Antonio in a Western Conference Finals rematch since the beginning of the season. However, the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors will have something to say about it. The Thunder's prospects changed significantly with the loss of Russell Westbrook for the playoffs. The Grizzlies dispatched Lob City and are playing with a ton of confidence after nearly knocking off the Thunder yesterday. The Warriors Stephen Curry has emerged as the newest superstar in the league. With him and his hot hand all things seem possible for Golden State, including maybe even winning at San Antonio where they have lost an astounding 29 games in a row.


#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies were up 9 going into the 4th quarter of yesterday's Game 1 and seemed poised to take early control of the series. But then Kevin Durant took over, showing why he is the second best player in the NBA at the moment, and the Thunder squeaked out a win. It had to feel like a missed opportunity for the Grizzlies, but it also had to give them supreme confidence that they can play with the Thunder, especially with no Westbrook.

The most surprising aspect of yesterday's game was Kevin Martin going off for the Thunder and Tony Allen of the Grizzlies struggles to stop him. Allen is considered one of the best defenders in the game, but Martin was able to slice him up for 25 points. It was pretty much Martin and Durant that carried the Thunder offensively and allowed them to sneak away with a win. Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins have basically disappeared since Westbrook went out. Their have been many calls for Thunder coach Scott Brooks to significantly decrease Perkins playing time. However, when you have guys like Hasheem Thabeet and Daniel Orton behind you, it is easy to see why Brooks would be hesitant to do that. A plus for the Thunder has been the steady play of point guard Reggie Jackson since he was thrust into the starting lineup after Westbrook's injury. I thought the trading of Eric Maynor would come back to really bite the Thunder at this point, but Jackson has played exactly as OKC has needed.

Tayshaun Prince will be mostly on Durant in this series and he will have to step up his game after Durant exploded for 35 points on 50% shooting yesterday. Of course slowing down Durant isn't easy but the Grizzlies should be capable as they were the best defensive team in the league this season. They have to continue to throw double teams at Durant and force other guys to beat them. That means Allen has to make Martin a non-factor for Memphis to be successful. The Grizzlies will also need to impose their will inside with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Each of those guys had strong games yesterday but didn't do enough offensively or defensively in the fourth quarter to seal the win. Free throw shooting was also an issue yesterday for Memphis, as Quincy Pondexter and Gasol missed some key freebies. Other key players for Memphis are Mike Conley and Jerryd Bayless. Both are more talented than the Thunder's point guard combo of Jackson and Derek Fisher, and they need to exploit that matchup advantage.

This series is basically a pick em and had the Grizzlies held on yesterday I might be picking them. I expect this series to go seven, with KD carrying Oklahoma City past Memphis in the decisive game on to their third straight trip to the Western Conference Finals.

Prediction: Thunder over Grizzlies, 4-3


#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #6 Golden State Warriors

Like the Heat, the Spurs have been on an extended vacation since sweeping the Lakers. They will have to snap back into things quickly though as the Warriors will run them up and down the court if they are caught napping.

The Spurs bigs, mainly Tim Duncan, DaJuan Blair, and Tiago Splitter will have their work cut out for them against a Warriors team that was third in the league in rebounding. One of the Warriors major strengths is their ability to grab offensive boards, and then kick it out to their excellent jump shooters, Curry and Klay Thompson. This series is pretty simple, if the Warriors dominate in rebounding and are hot shooting wise, they will pull off the upset. If they are deficient in either one of those areas, then the Spurs will move on as most expect.

Now there is no question that Curry will likely get his on offense, but his defense is a liability at times and Tony Parker could have a field day against him. The Warriors will probably try to shift having both Curry and Jarrett Jack on Parker. It will also be interesting to see who the Warriors put on Duncan. They might throw Andrew Bogut on him at times, and Carl Landry will have to cover Duncan at times too. While David Lee is not known for his defensive prowess, it would be much better for the Warriors if they had him as an option to body up Duncan as well. On paper it appears that Duncan could have a huge series, as he continues his steroid fueled (just kidding!) resurgence at age 37.

Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green are two rookies that looked ready for the playoff spotlight against the Nuggets. It probably helped that they played in high pressure games at North Carolina and Michigan State respectively. How effective they will be matching up with Kawhi Leonard remains to be seen. Leonard is an incredibly athletic and active player and much more of a matchup nightmare than Denver could throw at those guys.

It is imperative for Golden State that they win either Games 1 or 2 in San Antonio. That may seem like an obvious thing, but what makes it more imperative is the fact that they haven't won as a franchise in San Antonio for so long. That question will be front and center until they actually win there, so the quicker they can get that out of the way the better. I thought the Warriors relative inexperience would cost them against Denver. It turned out not to matter, but against such a well coached team like the Spurs, I believe Gregg Popovich will find ways to frustrate a young Warriors team. Golden State will make it a battle, but the Spurs advance.

Prediction: Spurs over Warriors, 4-2

2013 NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semi-Finals

The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals feature the renewal of a new school rivalry, and the renewal of an old school rivalry. The Bulls and Heat meet in the playoffs for the second time in three years, while the Knicks and Pacers renew their classic rivalry from the 90's. The Heat decimated the Milwaukee Bucks in four games, while the Bulls overcame tons of injuries and sickness to knock off the Brooklyn Nets in seven. The Knicks earned their first playoff series win in 13 seasons, while the Pacers got past the Hawks in the series no one watched. On paper, the East seems to be Miami's to lose, but sports tends to always be unpredictable.


#1 Miami Heat vs. #5 Chicago Bulls

When the series tips off tonight the Heat will be playing their first game in eight days. The Bulls just finished off their First Round series two nights ago and flew straight to Miami after defeating the Nets. Needless to say, the Heat will be much more rested than Chicago. That would already serve as quite the advantage but when you add in the injuries that the Bulls are facing with Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich, it makes that advantage even greater.

The Heat are mostly a juggernaut without weakness, except for their lack of size and rebounding. However, as I have documented many times their talent seems to overcome that and make it irrelevant. In this series against Chicago that won't even really be an issue as the Bulls aren't an overwhelmingly large team, outside of Joakim Noah. What may give the Heat some issue is the Bulls defense, which is one of the best in the league. That defense showed signs of being worn down, and tired though as they had to play a lot of guys who aren't part of their regular rotation. To have any shot of making this a series, the Bulls will have to get Deng and Hinrich back at some point. Otherwise, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and company will have their way. I think Noah can limit Chris Bosh's effectiveness but as long as James and Wade play well, that won't matter. The Bulls will also have to make sure they don't leave Ray Allen alone on the perimeter, as he can still do plenty of damage from downtown.

Chicago will have to play perfect this entire series and that means that Nate Robinson, Marco Bellinelli, and Noah will have to continue to play over their heads. Even guys like Jimmy Butler and Nazr Mohammed made huge contributions in the series win against Brooklyn. Perhaps the most key player for Chicago is Carlos Boozer. Boozer had trouble getting in a rhythm against Brooklyn as their bigs constantly had him in foul trouble. This will be a different series for him as Miami doesn't have as much height, but they have much more athleticism, so Boozer will have to play top notch defense. Anyone talking about the possibility of Derrick Rose returning for this series, just please stop. He isn't playing this year, and the Bulls stopped counting on him coming back long ago.

I see a lot of people predicting a sweep, which to me completely discounts the coaching edge Chicago has with Tom Thibodeau going against Miami's Erik Spoelstra. Not saying that Spoelstra is a bad coach, just that Thibodeau is a great coach and would have an advantage against almost everyone. This Bulls team plays with a ton of passion and adding having a chip on their shoulder makes them dangerous. I definitely believe they can make Miami sweat and steal a game or two, but I'd be crazy to pick against the Heat.

Prediction: Heat over Bulls, 4-2


#2 New York Knicks vs. #3 Indiana Pacers

This series tipped off yesterday and to the surprise of many, the Pacers raced to a relatively easy win at the Garden. Most people were surprised because they haven't bothered watching or paying attention to the Pacers all season. The Pacers are a very physical team, and for a team so reliant on jump shooting like the Knicks, that will pose some problems. The Pacers play tough defense and rebound well.

A key battle in this series will be the battle of the big men between the Pacers Roy Hibbert and the Knicks Tyson Chandler. Yesterday, Hibbert dominated Chandler on the glass and offensively. The Knicks will be beaten rather easily if Carmelo Anthony continues to struggle. He played poorly to end the Boston series and that carried over yesterday, with a 10-28 shooting performance. The Knicks other important shooter, J.R. Smith was just 4-15 yesterday. If the Knicks don't find a way to get those guys going or find some better looks, this series will be over quickly. The Knicks best player on the court yesterday was Raymond Felton. Felton shot the ball well and also played very good defense on Pacers point guard George Hill. The Pacers best player, Paul George struggled with his shot but as all good players do, found other ways to score, and for him that was by getting to the line.

The Pacers second best player, David West played very well yesterday and the Knicks will have to hope that Kenyon Martin can give them some quality minutes and play West tight on defense. For the Knicks to be successful, their perimeter guys will have to get going, which can open some things up for Chandler inside. If the Pacers dominate the paint like they did yesterday, it won't matter how well Anthony or Smith shoot. The Pacers also received a huge boost from their bench yesterday with some great play by D.J. Augustin.

I think that the Knicks can turn things around in this series, even after yesterday's dispirited performance. This is a series where I expect to see the road teams steal a few, ultimately forcing a Game 7 at the Garden, which would be electric. But in a surprise twist, I like this Pacers team to win that Game 7 and move on to the Eastern Conference Finals. They are the definition of team, and can hit you from all over. In other words, a very dangerous, playoff ready team.

Prediction: Pacers over Knicks, 4-3