Monday, December 31, 2012

Cram Session - Bowl Edition

Whether you have noticed it or not there have been plenty of bowl games happening over the last two weeks. Now I can't really blame you if the Belk Bowl or the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl don't get you excited. However, starting tomorrow on New Year's Day the action begins to pick up as the BCS bowls begin and ranked teams face off in other bowl matchups. For the Bowl Edition of Cram Session I will be previewing and predicting the Cornhuskers Capital One Bowl game, the BCS games (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta), and next week's National Championship game between Notre Dame and Alabama.


Capital One Bowl

#7 Georgia (11-2) vs. #16 Nebraska (10-3) in Orlando, Florida

You could call this the runner-up bowl as both Georgia and Nebraska had to settle for appearances in this game after losing in their conference championship games. At least the Bulldogs showed up for their game and gave Alabama all they could handle. The Cornhuskers were thoroughly embarrassed by Wisconsin and basically helped Bret Bielema land the Arkansas job. A signature win has eluded Bo Pelini during his time in Lincoln, and while Huskers fans were hoping for a Big Ten championship, a win over an SEC power like Georgia would give Nebraska fans great hope going into 2013. The Huskers maligned defense will have its work cut out for them against a Bulldogs attack that is proficient both throwing and running. QB Aaron Murray had an outstanding season for Georgia and there are rumors this could be his final collegiate game before turning pro. What's even more impressive about Murray's play is he doesn't have any real elite receivers to throw the ball to. He has some good ones that he spreads it around to, including Tavarres King, who gashed the Crimson Tide and led the Bulldogs in receiving touchdowns this season, and Malcolm Mitchell. More concerning for Nebraska is the Bulldogs running game, led by Freshman Todd Gurley. Gurley scored 16 TDs this season, rushed for 1,260 yards and went over 100 yards in 8 of the Bulldogs 12 games. He gets spotted by Keith Marshall, who averaged 6.6 yards per carry. The Huskers defense will have to play its best game of the season to keep things competitive with Georgia. Husker QB Taylor Martinez had his best season throwing the ball, but will have his work cut out for him against the blazing fast Bulldogs defense. Luckily for him Georgia is without John Jenkins, however, the potential number one pick in the draft and SEC Player of the Year LB Jarvis Jones will be in action. Martinez should be helped by having his full complement of running backs, including senior Rex Burkhead who battled injuries all season. It will be up to Burkhead and Ameer Abdullah to get the ground game going and take some pressure off Martinez. Martinez has shown that he can still be a turnover machine when the game is placed in his hands. Martinez will also need his top receiver Kenny Bell to make some plays. Bell has disappeared in the last two games, catching just 2 passes for 14 yards. I think Nebraska should be plenty motivated to get the bad taste out of their mouths from the Big Ten title game. However, I think talent wise they are far behind Georgia, and they can't make the Herculean effort necessary to win this game. The defense has not shown the ability to stop a good offense, and the Huskers will have trouble scoring on the Bulldogs stout defense.

Prediction: Georgia 38, Nebraska 21

Rose Bowl

Wisconsin (8-5) vs. #6 Stanford (11-2) in Pasadena, California

If you like power football this will be the game for you to watch. Both of these teams pass because they have to but win games on the backs of their rushing attacks. Usually you talk about a quarterback battle to watch but in this game it will be running back vs. running back. For the Badgers you have record setting running back Montee Ball going against the Cardinal's Stepfan Taylor. Ball saw his numbers dip in his senior year, but it was still good enough for him to have 21 TDs and 1,730 yards rushing. Pretty incredible to say he almost had a down year, compared to his ridiculous junior season. He sometimes gets lost in the shuffle because of Ball but the Badgers also have James White, who shredded Nebraska for 4 TDs in the Badgers Big Ten title win. For Stanford, Taylor saw his carries increase a ton, as the Cardinal became a running team with the departure of Andrew Luck and inconsistent quarterback play for most of the season. Stanford has not lost since Freshman QB Kevin Hogan took over, throwing 9 TDs against just 3 INTs in 6 games this year. Picking up where Coby Fleener left off, TE Zach Ertz has become the number one receiving target with 66 catches and 6 TDs. The Badgers are on their third quarterback this season, and now roll with senior Curt Phillips. Phillips isn't asked to do a ton, but he has capably managed games since he got the nod, throwing 4 TDs and just one interception in his four starts. To go with their strong rushing attacks, each team has tough defenses, both of which were Top 20 in the NCAA in points allowed. The other subplot to this game is with Bielema's departure, Wisconsin will be coached by their athletic director and legendary coach Barry Alvarez. Perhaps that is why despite having just 8 wins, the Badgers are only six point underdogs to Stanford. Also, Alvarez is 3-0 in the Rose Bowl, while Bielema lost both of his appearances. That is all well and good but this Stanford defense his Badgers will be facing is legit and isn't going to fall for the gimmick runs Wisconsin unleashed on Nebraska. I have more faith in Hogan than I do in Phillips at quarterback and with the running backs basically being a wash, that will give Stanford the edge to get the win.

Prediction: Stanford 27, Wisconsin 20

Orange Bowl

#15 Northern Illinois (12-1) vs. #12 Florida State (11-2) in Miami, Florida

Some MACtion has crashed the BCS this year, as Northern Illinois parlayed an undefeated conference record into a BCS bid. This left some people apoplectic, such as Kirk Herbstreit who couldn't believe that the Orange Bowl, home of such legendary matchups as Louisville vs. Wake Forest and Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech, would have to degrade itself to include Northern Illinois. Then there is Florida State, which was probably happy because this game fit in well with the rest of their schedule of playing nobodies. Now I confess to not having watched a single second of Northern Illinois football this year but it appears that on offense they are a two man team. They are led by QB Jordan Lynch, who threw for 2,962 yards and 24 touchdowns, while also rushing for 1,771 yards and 19 touchdowns. He completed 63% of his passes with a 8.4 yards per attempt average so he seems to be quite the threat. His favorite target is WR Martel Moore, who had 71 catches and 12 TDs this season. The Huskies were also strong defensively, allowing just 19 points per game, good enough for 18th in the country. Most of you are a little more familiar with the Seminoles, especially QB EJ Manuel who will be playing his final game at Florida State. Manuel is extremely accurate but can get sloppy with ball at times and throw a costly interception. The Seminoles don't run the ball all that much and mostly rely on WR Rashad Greene to make plays. The Huskies lone loss this season was to a terrible Iowa team that couldn't even make one of the 500 bowls. Now, to be fair that was way back in September, but the Huskies most impressive out of conference win came against Army. What I am trying to say is they probably aren't ready for the avalanche in talent that will be coming at them from Florida State. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Florida State is all that great, as Florida basically exposed them as frauds, but they are well above teams like Central Michigan or Kent State. I don't expect to see a Boise State/Oklahoma type game, I more expect to see a Hawaii/Georgia type of affair. The Huskies may hang around for a quarter but will be all downhill from there.

Prediction: Florida State 42, Northern Illinois 17

Overall Record: 102-24

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