The Hail Mary - Week 8

The talk around here isn't so much about the Redskins trip to Pittsburgh, it is about the potential of Hurricane Sandy making the Derecho from this past summer look like a little girlie man. I'm hoping the weatherman end up wrong like they usually are, as the though of losing power sucks. If the power has to go out, can it wait until Tuesday when no football is on?


Sunday, October 28

Miami (3-3) at New York Jets (3-4), New York Jets favored by 2 1/2

The AFC East, like pretty much all of the AFC, is a jumbled mess. This is a critical game for Miami, who already lost to the Jets earlier this season, so a loss here would having them 2 1/2 games behind the Jets. There is a lot of bad blood heading into this game between Reggie Bush and pretty much the entire Jets team. Bush thought the Jets had a bounty on him or something, so when Darelle Revis ended up being lost for the season in their game against each other, Bush said it was karma. The Jets didn't take kindly to that and have made it clear that they will be looking to hit Bush hard and often. That sounds kind of dirty. The Dolphins defense stuffs the run but is susceptible to the pass, and guys like Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley have started to emerge for the Jets. These are two evenly matched teams, with two evenly matched mediocre quarterbacks, so expect a close one.

Prediction: New York Jets 21, Miami 17

Atlanta (6-0) at Philadelphia (3-3), Philadelphia favored by 2

Andy Reid is 13-0 as coach of the Eagles when coming off a bye week. That has to be the reason that Vegas has installed the Eagles as 2 point favorites against the unbeaten Falcons. This will be the debut of new Philadelphia defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. The first test of the difference between him and Juan Castilla will likely come in this game. I think the Eagles will once again have to hold on to a lead late, but this time will be successful and prevent Matt Ryan from leading a game winning drive, keeping Reid's unbeaten record intact.

Prediction: Philadelphia 25, Atlanta 22

Washington (3-4) at Pittsburgh (3-3), Pittsburgh favored by 4 1/2

It will be a strange sight for Redskins fans on Sunday. Not just because the Steelers are wearing some of the ugliest throwback jerseys you have ever seen, but also because London Fletcher will likely not be playing. If he does not suit up it would break his streak of 231 consecutive games played. That is an amazing stat, especially playing a position as taxing as middle linebacker. The question facing Washington is the same as every week, can the defense do enough to supplement the strong play of the offense? That isn't likely as the Steelers have a penchant for hitting the big play in the passing game with WRs Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace. Also, if Fletcher doesn't play that could open things up for Steelers TE Heath Miller to have an even bigger presence than he normally would. The Redskins offense should be fine as the Steelers defense is pretty mediocre, especially without Troy Polamalu. This will be a typical Skins game, back and forth, undecided until the final minute, with Washington finding a way to give the game away.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Washington 24

Carolina (1-5) at Chicago (5-1), Chicago favored by 7 1/2

I get to see Cam vs. RG3 next weekend, and it won't quite be what I envisioned when I asked for tickets to that game three months ago. Cam's stock has plummeted this season as the Panthers have shown no sign of improvement. Cam and the offense have regressed badly, as the Panthers don't seem to realize that they have three pretty good running backs and should use them. Until they figure out their run game, there will be too much pressure on Newton and the offense will continue to languish. The Bears defense seems to be channeling the 2006 version that led them to the Super Bowl. They definitely aren't a defense you want to face if you are yearning for some confidence.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Carolina 17

San Diego (3-3) at Cleveland (1-6), San Diego favored by 3

The Chargers are hoping a week off after blowing a 24-0 second half lead at home will completely wipe away that embarrassment. It also helps that they get to face the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are competitive but still don't know how to win games. If Norv can't lead his team to victory in this game, he might want to start packing things in his office. Also, Philip Rivers has looked decidedly mediocre for a year and a half now, he seems to be following the Carson Palmer career trajectory.

Prediction: San Diego 26, Cleveland 21

Seattle (4-3) at Detroit (2-4), Detroit favored by 2

Well, those 2011 Detroit Lions sure were cute weren't they? But, the world remembered that certain things have to be a certain way and one of those things is the Detroit Lions sucking at football. Fortunately for them, they will likely get a one week reprieve as they host a Seattle team that can't win on the road. I think Russell Wilson will find himself running for his life from Ndamukong Suh, Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Marshawn Lynch won't be able to single-handedly carry the Seahawks to victory.

Prediction: Detroit 21, Seattle 14

Jacksonville (1-5) at Green Bay (4-3), Green Bay favored by 15 1/2

The Packers have looked like the Packers we expected to see the last two weeks, while Jacksonville fans found out that Blaine Gabbert is actually better than somebody, as Chad Henne was atrocious in relief of him last weekend. 15 1/2 is a lot of points though, so while I don't expect a close game, I at least think Jacksonville can lose by less than that.

Prediction: Green Bay 27, Jacksonville 14

Indianapolis (3-3) at Tennessee (3-4), Tennessee favored by 3 1/2

My preseason AFC South pick of Tennessee looked dead in the water a few weeks ago but has now won two straight and is right back in the thick of things. They still probably won't win the division, but a playoff appearance no longer seems out of the question. If they keep winning it makes for an interesting discussion when Jake Locker is healthy to return from injury. Do they stick with Hasselbeck or go back to the future?

Prediction: Tennessee 31, Indianapolis 21

New England (4-3) "at"St. Louis (3-4), New England favored by 7, in London, England

The Rams finally got above .500 for the first time since 2007 a few weeks ago but the honeymoon was more like a minimoon and they are back to their usual under .500 selves. I am wondering when the excuses will stop for Sam Bradford, who still seems pretty mediocre and not like someone you can win a Super Bowl with. The Patriots continue to under perform but they aren't performing at a level where a loss to the Rams should be possible.

Prediction: New England 30, St. Louis 17

Oakland (2-4) at Kansas City (1-5), Kansas City favored by 1

Another week of just two 4:00 games, whoever put the schedule together this year should be fired. Looking at the schedule the rest of the year, as long as bye weeks keep happening these few 4:00 games will be the norm. As you can tell, I'm not really interested in talking about this crappy game. Watch if you like field goals.

Prediction: Oakland 15, Kansas City 12

New York Giants (5-2) at Dallas (3-3), New York Giants favored by 2 1/2

Quite a bit has changed since the season opener when Dallas knocked off the Giants in New York. Tony Romo has been mediocre to bad since that game, which has meant the rest of the Cowboys offense has been on that level. The Cowboys defense has played well but lost one of their best players, LB Sean Lee to a season ending injury. His absence will be felt immediately this weekend, when the Cowboys give up the most points they have allowed this season. The Giants offense seems to be getting into gear and revenge will definitely be on their minds in the new Cowboys Stadium, a stadium they have never lost in.

Prediction: New York Giants 34, Dallas 27

New Orleans (2-4) at Denver (3-3), Denver favored by 6

I am downright giddy to watch this game. Peyton Manning vs. Drew Brees equals a lot of offense and watching defenses squirm. I expect we will see a back and forth battle between two of the premiere players at their position. Denver has a little more defense than the Saints do and add that to the homefield advantage means a Broncos win.

Prediction: Denver 38, New Orleans 31



Monday, October 29

San Francisco (5-2) at Arizona (4-3), San Francisco favored by 7

If things break the way I expect, with Seattle and St. Louis losing on Sunday, the 49ers could have a stranglehold on the division with a win over Arizona Monday night. The Cardinals 4-0 start seems like a distant memory. John Skelton looks worse than Kevin Kolb, and down to their third running back, the injuries have taken their toll on Arizona. The 49ers offense has looked pretty bad the last two weeks, and it took a monster game from Frank Gore last week to beat Seattle. Alex Smith has looked really bad and could really use a good game here to repair his confidence. I'm not sure how good a game Alex will have, but I know the 49ers can run it down Arizona's throats. I also know that the 49ers defense can dominate the Cardinals hurting offense and lead to a relatively easy victory.

Prediction: San Francisco 26, Arizona 17

Last Week Against the Spread: 5-7-1
Overall Against the Spread: 47-53-4

Last Week Straight Up: 11-2
Overall Straight Up: 66-38

Cram Session - Week 9

Thursday, October 25

Tampa Bay (2-4) at Minnesota (5-2), Minnesota favored by 6 1/2

The Vikings won last week against Arizona and set passing the football back almost 100 years. Christian Ponder was awful, but it didn't matter because "Purple Jesus" Adrian Peterson was fantastic. The Vikings look to finish their surprisingly awesome first half with their sixth win of the season. They play a defense in the Buccaneers that should be susceptible to some big plays, and hopefully Ponder bounces back after last week's dreadful start. Bucs QB Josh Freeman has quietly had a bounce back season from last year, but it remains to be seen how much of that is him, or a product of facing bad defenses. It will also be interesting to watch how effective up and coming rookie Doug Martin will be running the ball against the Vikings defensive front. I like the Vikings in this game, especially with the homefield advantage but think it will be closer than Vegas thinks.

Prediction: Minnesota 24, Tampa Bay 20



Games That Matter To Me

#22 Michigan (5-2, 3-0) at Nebraska (5-2, 2-1)

Nebraska isn't very good but they show a lot of heart. They completed their second incredible comeback win of the season last week, pushing through a late, 12 point deficit to win on the road at Northwestern. Now, they host the Michigan Wolverines in primetime, as they try to keep alive their hopes of playing in the Big Ten Championship game. The Wolverines have the best defense the Huskers have faced this season, and the game will come down to how effective Taylor Martinez can be against the Michigan defense. Martinez struggled mightily against them last season, and it led to the Huskers being blown out. Nebraska might also be without RB Rex Burkhead, which is becoming a common theme this season. Ameer Abdullah will have to be effective running to help take pressure off Martinez. The defense of Nebraska is terrible and basically just needs to not get killed. It is unrealistic to expect the defense to carry Nebraska to a win, and even more scary when they know they have to stop Denard Robinson. Robinson's passing skills leave a lot to be desired, so most teams key on stopping him from running the ball. I don't believe enough in the Huskers defense to think they can do that to the point of getting the victory. No crazy rallies in this one, just more proof that Nebraska has a ways to go to be a part of the upper echelon of college football.

Prediction: Michigan 30, Nebraska 23


Top 10

#11 Mississippi State (7-0, 3-0) at #1 Alabama (7-0, 4-0)

The Bulldogs have raced out to a 7-0 start, which looks impressive at first glance, but when you start digging through their schedule, means very little. They haven't played a ranked team all season, and that will change in a major fashion when they visit #1 Alabama on Saturday. Any confidence the Bulldogs might have going into this game will more than likely have evaporated by time the first half ends. The Tide most likely already have their November 3rd trip to play LSU on their minds, but Nick Saban is too good of a coach to allow his team to have a let down.

Prediction: Alabama 35, Mississippi State 14

#2 Florida (7-0, 6-0) vs. #10 Georgia (6-1, 4-1) in Jacksonville, Florida

I guess you can't call it "The World's Largest Cocktail Party" anymore but that's what this is. It is also is a battle of two top ten teams, with one them, #10 Georgia pretty much being a fluke fraud. The Bulldogs showed their true selves when they were bullied by South Carolina. They showed it even more when they could barely beat Kentucky. The Gators can wrap up the SEC East with a victory and leave their season finale against Florida State as the only likely place they could see a loss before the SEC Championship. The Gators do it with defense, and I expect them to make Aaron Murray's life hell on Saturday.

Prediction: Florida 28, Georgia 20

#14 Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1) at #3 Kansas State (7-0, 4-0)

Kansas State made a hell of a statement when they gave West Virginia the ass whipping of a lifetime last Saturday in Morgantown. People expecting Kansas State to go away quietly now know that they have a great chance of playing for the BCS Championship in January. A win Saturday against Texas Tech would further cement Kansas State as the best team in the Big 12. Texas Tech has won two straight, like the Wildcats they blew out West Virginia, and then last week survived in triple overtime against TCU. They have offensive firepower, but they don't have the defense to match, and that will be their undoing when Wildcats QB Colin Klein makes them look silly.

Prediction: Kansas State 44, Texas Tech 28

Colorado (1-6, 1-3) at #4 Oregon (7-0, 4-0)

The Ducks finally play someone with a pulse next week when they battle USC at the Coliseum next Saturday. Until then, they face another punching bag on Saturday in the form of Colorado.

Prediction: Oregon 56, Colorado 10

#5 Notre Dame (7-0) at #8 Oklahoma (5-1)

This game has been circled on the Irish calendar for weeks, ever since it became apparent that Notre Dame had legitimate national title aspirations this season. I started off scared to death of this game, but as the season has wore on, Choklahoma doesn't impress me much. Everyone wants to keep talking about their big bad offense, but that big bad offense didn't look so tough at home against Kansas State. As a Notre Dame fan, you have to drown out a lot of haters, and all the irrelevant things they say. Notre Dame's defense is damn good, and anyone who says otherwise is talking out of their ass. I have no doubt in my mind that the Irish defense can slow down the Sooners attack. The only doubt I have is the Notre Dame offense, led by Everett Golson. Golson hasn't had a good game against a quality team all season, but he is slated to get the start Saturday. His job in this game is to manage, not turn the ball over, and hopefully Notre Dame can establish their run game. They will also need the defense to force at least 2 turnovers, and help the Irish take control of the field position battle. It's not like Landry Jones is some infallible quarterback in capable of having a crap game. The only result in this game that would truly surprise me was if Notre Dame was to win in a rout. Saying the Irish have no chance in this game because of games from two, five, or seven years ago is absurd and stupid. The Irish have a great chance to win because they have an excellent defense. I pick them to win Saturday and would absolutely revel in listening to the haters sound even more stupid when they come up with ways to denigrate the Irish.

Prediction: Notre Dame 23, Oklahoma 21

#7 Oregon State (6-0, 4-0) at Washington (3-4, 1-3)

The Beavers survived without starting QB Sean Mannion and now have him back for their trip to take on the Huskies. The Huskies have played terribly since upsetting Stanford and most puzzling is the poor season QB Keith Price is having. I am slightly tempted to once again pick a Washington upset, but with Price playing so poorly, I don't think the time is right for the Huskies to be the first team to knock off Oregon State. 

Prediction: Oregon State 29, Washington 21

#9 USC (6-1, 4-1) at Arizona (4-3, 1-3)

Rich Rod's team ended their three game losing streak in emphatic fashion against Washington last week, but will see a major step up in competition from the Trojans. USC has to avoid being caught looking ahead to their showdown with Oregon next weekend. As is typical of a Rich Rodriguez coached team, his Wildcats don't play defense, so it will be a fun night for Matt Barkley and company.

Prediction: USC 42, Arizona 21

Last Week: 9-1
Overall: 65-11

The Hail Mary - Week 7

This is the first week of the NFL season where a bunch of teams are on byes. Because of that the schedule is thinner, including just two 4:00 games. Turns out for me that might be for the best as I likely have to come to the office on Sunday. There are some pretty strong 1:00 games highlighted in my opinion by the Washington Redskins taking on the New York Giants in New Jersey.


Sunday, October 21

Arizona (4-2) at Minnesota (4-2), Minnesota favored by 6

The Cardinals seem to be crashing back to Earth after their surprising 4-0 start. They enter this game on a two game losing streak and are back to John Skelton as their quarterback. Previous starter Kevin Kolb was taking a pounding and is now out a few weeks with a sprained ankle and injured ribs. They have also been decimated at running back, losing both Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams. The Vikings saw their three game winning streak halted at the hands of the Redskins. Their defense was no match for RG3, but they should find things far less complicated against the Cardinals. QB Christian Ponder continues to show improvement in his second year, giving Vikings fans hope for the future. Minnesota is a tough team to beat at home and with the Cardinals dealing with so many injuries it should be a long day for them.

Prediction: Minnesota 27, Arizona 17

Washington (3-3) at New York Giants (4-2), New York Giants favored by 6 1/2

The winner of this game will be in first place in the NFC East. The Giants are trying to maintain their foothold atop the division, while the Skins look to beat New York for the third straight time. The Skins have to feel some confidence going into this game for a few reasons. One, the Giants are not a very good home team, two, the Skins beat New York twice last season, and three RG3. People are mostly marveling at Griffin's running ability but he is also completing a ridiculous 70% of his passes this year. Unfortunately, Griffin can't play defense, and that is likely what makes this game unwinnable for the Skins. Eli Manning struggled last year against Washington, but I don't think that will continue Sunday. The Skins have had trouble slowing down anyone, and really, for them to keep it competitive, they will have to dominate the Giants run game. That will prove to be hard as the Giants have been running the ball very effectively the last few weeks. If the Redskins had a better defense they might be the favorites in the NFC, as their offense is that good. I just can't picture the Giants falling to 0-3 in the division. I don't think they will stop Griffin, but it won't matter.

Prediction: New York Giants 30, Washington 24

Tennessee (2-4) at Buffalo (3-3), Buffalo favored by 3

Hey, the Titans only need to go 7-3 the rest of the way to match the record I predicted for them to win the AFC South! After back to back embarrassing defeats of course the Bills went into Arizona and handed the Cardinals their first home loss of the season. Buffalo's season has followed the trajectory of their quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, up and down. I think we see good Fitzpatrick and good Buffalo on Sunday.

Prediction: Buffalo 28, Tennessee 20

Cleveland (1-5) at Indianapolis (2-3), Indianapolis favored by 3

The Browns finally got off the schneid and Brandon Weeden has actually played pretty well since a putrid Week 1 performance against Philadelphia. The Colts came crashing back to Earth after their Green Bay win and got destroyed by the Jets. The quarterback battle between Weeden and Andrew Luck will be a rematch from last January's Fiesta Bowl. That game was exciting and high scoring, this one, not so much.

Prediction: Indianapolis 26, Cleveland 19

Green Bay (3-3) at St. Louis (3-3), Green Bay favored by 5 1/2

Raise your hand if you thought these two teams would have matching records when they were scheduled to meet in Week 7? That should be none of you raising your hand. The Packers finally looked like the team that they are capable of in completely eviscerating the Texans. Aaron Rodgers was sharp, and played like the league MVP that he was in 2011. The Rams have remained competitive and have shown improvement under Jeff Fisher. They have been tough at home this year, and I expect them to give Green Bay a battle. I envision a Mason Crosby field goal at the gun giving the Pack a hard fought win.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, St. Louis 28

New Orleans (1-4) at Tampa Bay (2-3), New Orleans favored by 2 1/2

This was the hardest game for me to pick this weekend. I still don't have a true read on either team. The Saints don't play any defense but the Buccaneers don't play pass defense, which plays to the Saints strength. Basically, I think the Saints defense is terrible enough that Josh Freeman, Doug Martin and company will outscore Drew Brees.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 34, New Orleans 31

Dallas (2-3) at Carolina (1-4), Dallas favored by 2

The Panthers and Cam Newton have been probably the biggest disappointment of the young NFL season. Cam says he got some advice from his Dad and is now ready to be a leader. Hey, whatever works. Cam's dad might need to talk to the defense though, as I think Tony Romo will have a very good game on Sunday. The Cowboys running game showed signs of life last week, and even without DeMarco Murray, Felix Jones should be able to run on a poor Panthers defense.

Prediction: Dallas 30, Carolina 20

Baltimore (5-1) at Houston (5-1), Houston favored by 6 1/2

People are writing off the Ravens after they lost LB Ray Lewis and CB Lardarius Webb to season ending injuries last week. The defense was already struggling with them, ranking towards the bottom of the league against the run and pass. On the bright side for Baltimore, LB Terrell Suggs may return from injury for this one. Any other year, I might be joining the people writing off Baltimore, but this year, I think the offense is ready to take the reigns of the team. However, as far as this week, I think it won't be enough. The Texans defense has got to be steaming after getting embarrassed on national television by the Packers. I would be surprised if they don't come out with a ton of piss and vinegar and make Joe Flacco's life hell in this game. The Texans will need to commit to Arian Foster and the run, and with Webb out, I expect Andre Johnson to score a touchdown or two.

Prediction: Houston 27, Baltimore 21

Jacksonville (1-4) at Oakland (1-4), Oakland favored by 4

Awful, terrible, waste of a game.

Prediction: Oakland 24, Jacksonville 14

New York Jets (3-3) at New England (3-3), New England favored by 10 1/2

A few years ago this was a sexy game but now, meh. The talk this week is that Tim Tebow will play some running back. I guess I will believe it when I see it. The Patriots have been a tough team to figure out. Everyone wants to think of them as the favorites in the AFC but they keep blowing games. The Jets win games when they force turnovers, and I don't think they have the means to force Brady into enough bad decisions to give them a chance in this game.

Prediction: New England 28, New York Jets 17

Pittsburgh (2-3) at Cincinnati (3-3), Pittsburgh favored by 2 1/2

The Steelers have been awful on the road but over the years they have owned the Bengals, especially in Cincinnati. The Bengals have lost two in a row, games they were favored in, and blew a chance at being 5-1. That is important because the schedule becomes brutal for them down the stretch. The Steelers have to win on the road sometime, so why not this Sunday night?

Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, Cincinnati 23

Monday, October 22

Detroit (2-3) at Chicago (4-1), Chicago favored by 5 1/2

The Lions avoided 1-4 thanks to the Eagles unbelievable ability to blow games late. Matthew Stafford is struggling and Calvin Johnson has just one touchdown through five games. The Bears are coming off their bye week and are feeling quite good about themselves. Their defense is playing great and is first in the league against the run. The Lions can't run the ball anyway, so Stafford will have to channel his 2011 self to give Detroit a chance. The Lions defense should be better with the talent they have on their front seven, but I don't think they will get the pressure necessary on Jay Cutler to beat the Bears. I think this will be a close, hard fought division battle but like the Bears to win their fourth straight.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Detroit 20

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-7
Overall Against the Spread: 42-46-3

Last Week Straight Up: 8-6
Overall Straight Up: 55-36

Cram Session - Week 8

Thursday, October 18

Seattle (4-2) at San Francisco (4-2), San Francisco favored by 7

Big early season game for the 49ers as they battle the upstart Seahawks for first place in the division. The Niners were humbled at home by the Giants last week and hopefully will be fired up to get that bad taste out of their mouth. The Seahawks don't have much of a passing game but were able to hit some big passing plays last week to defeat New England. They are a team that relies on effectively running the ball, and playing suffocating defense. In other words, they are very similar to San Francisco. Neither team has offenses that have an ability to overcome deficits, so whoever jumps ahead early in this game will have a huge advantage. I think we could see a lot of field goals tonight and I expect a close game. I think that Alex Smith will not have a turnover filled game like he did last week, and that the Niners will be committed to Frank Gore and the run. All of that lead will lead to a much needed 49ers victory.

Prediction: San Francisco 20, Seattle 14

Some really good games this weekend in college football. The SEC has two good ones, South Carolina at Florida, and LSU at Texas A&M. The Big 12's marquee matchup features undefeated Kansas State traveling to Morgantown to take on West Virginia. The rest of the Top 10 will be looking to avoid the upset bug.

Games That Matter To Me

Nebraska (4-2, 1-1) at Northwestern (6-1, 2-1)  

I was busy getting married a couple of weeks ago so fortunately I was spared from watching the debacle that was the Nebraska/Ohio State game. The defense for the Huskers continues to regress at a rapid rate and is conjuring up memories of the Bill Callahan era. It's a shame too because Taylor Martinez has showed marked improvement as a passer, although he did put the defense in a lot of bad spots with three picks in that game. The Huskers will be looking for revenge against the Wildcats from last season's shocking loss at home. Northwestern is 4-0 at home this year and is a team that likes to stuff it down the defense's throat with their running game. RB Venric Mark receives most of the carries, and is coming off a 182 yard rushing effort against Minnesota last weekend. Quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Kain Colter have split time this season, but Colter is much more of a dual threat than Siemian. The Wildcats defense has been up and down all season, so you would figure the Huskers high powered attack can take advantage of that. Martinez has to avoid turnovers at all costs, as the defense is simply not good enough to compensate for those mistakes. I think the bye week will help Nebraska and hopefully Bo Pelini has coached them up for this game. They still have a Big Ten championship to play for and need to keep fighting to avoid this turning into a completely disappointing season.

Prediction: Nebraska 34, Northwestern 27


Top 10

Thursday, October 18

#3 Oregon (6-0, 3-0) at Arizona State (5-1, 3-0)

There were some rumblings after the first BCS standings were released and the Ducks came in third, behind Florida. Oregon will have all eyes on them tonight in primetime, as they face their first true test of the season, in Tempe against Arizona State. The Sun Devils are coming off impressive back to back road wins and are playing with a lot of confidence. QB Taylor Kelly is quietly having one of the better seasons in the country, throwing 14 TDs versus 2 INTs so far this year. The Sun Devils defense will have their hands full with an Oregon offense that has yet to score less than 40 points in a game. Strange things happen in Thursday night games, and I am tempted to pick the upset. However, while I think the Ducks will get a scare, they have too many playmakers that can break something off at a moments notice to allow the upset to happen.

Prediction: Oregon 28, Arizona State 25 

Saturday, October 20

#1 Alabama (6-0, 3-0) at Tennessee (3-3, 0-3)


Alabama just keeps crusing through their schedule, but some potential road blocks await the next month. After this game, the Crimson Tide play three straight games against ranked opponents. The Vols can't get a win but have been competitive in every game. I have a feeling that streak will stop Saturday, as their high powered offense hasn't seen anything like the Crimson Tide's defense.

Prediction: Alabama 40, Tennessee 17

#7 South Carolina (6-1, 4-1) at #2 Florida (6-0, 5-0)

This is the marquee matchup of the weekend. The ole ball coach Steve Spurrier visiting his alma mater and where he made his coaching name. The Cocks are coming off a heartbreaking loss at LSU, but are still very much in the thick of things in both the SEC and national title races. The Gators just keep finding ways to win. The next two weeks could make or break their season, as they follow up this game with a game against Georgia in Jacksonville next weekend. This game may very well determine who represents the SEC East in the SEC championship. The Cocks could be without their best player, RB Marcus Lattimore who is dealing with a bruised hip. This will be a low-scoring, defensive battle, reminiscent of the LSU/Florida game from a few weeks ago. Not having Lattimore would be detrimental for sure, but even if he plays, I think the Gators will find a way to knock off South Carolina.

Prediction: Florida 20, South Carolina 17

#4 Kansas State (6-0, 3-0) at #13 West Virginia (5-1, 1-1)

I think this is a very dangerous spot for Kansas State. West Virginia was completely whipped by Texas Tech last week, and now they return home, under the lights with a crowd that will be crazy. I expect that Geno Smith and the offense will get back on track and this will be the typical high-scoring affair on both sides that Moutnaineer fans are used to. Colin Klein will have success and this game will come down to which quarterback has the ball last. I think that will be Smith and the Mountaineers will hand the Wildcats their first loss of the season.

Prediction: West Virginia 38, Kansas State 35

BYU (4-3) at #5 Notre Dame (6-0)

Things are getting exciting in South Bend. The Irish won a slugfest against Stanford last weekend to remain unbeaten. Now they host 4-3 BYU, who is coming off a butt whooping loss at home to Oregon State. I hope Irish fans and especially the players aren't overlooking the Cougars. This game scares me for many reasons. One, it could be a trap game with the Irish looking ahead to the game at Oklahoma next week. It could also be a letdown game after the battle the Irish had with Stanford. BYU QB Riley Nelson will have his hands full with a Notre Dame defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown in over a month. The same can be said for Everett Golson, if he starts as expected. The Cougars give up just 13.6 points per game, 7th best in the country. This will be a game that fans of offense will likely not enjoy. The tough defenses, mixed with the Irish probably feeling a little bit of a letdown will make this another tense weekend for Irish fans.

Prediction: Notre Dame 20, BYU 13

#6 LSU (6-1, 2-1) at #18 Texas A&M (5-1, 2-1)

Fans will be tuning into this one to see how Aggies freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel fares against the Tigers defense. Ever since losing to the Gators, the Aggies offense has been nearly unstoppable. LSU looks a lot like last year's team, one that can barely stay out of their own way on offense, and wins games with their defense. They can't win a shootout with A&M, so the defense knows the pressure will be even higher on them this weekend. I just can't pick A&M to win a game like this, as they have continually fallen flat on their faces in spots like this in recent years.

Prediction: LSU 30, Texas A&M 27 


Utah (2-4, 0-3) at #8 Oregon State (5-0, 3-0)

The Beavers can make history on Saturday, as a win will give them their first 6-0 start in 105 years. I thought that their Cinderella season would start to unravel after they lost starting QB Sean Mannion to injury a few weeks ago. But his replacement, Cody Vaz played very well at BYU and gives the Beavers hope. As long as the Beavers don't overlook a struggling Utes team, they will have another trip to In-N-Out awaiting them Saturday night.

Prediction: Oregon State 31, Utah 20

Kansas (1-5, 0-3) at #9 Oklahoma (4-1, 2-1)

The only way this game becomes slightly interesting is if Choklahoma looks ahead to their big game with Notre Dame next weekend. Former Irish coach Charlie Weis and former Irish QB Dayne Crist are both suffering through miserable seasons for the Jayhawks.
 
Prediction: Oklahoma 44, Kansas 16

Colorado (1-5, 1-2) at #10 USC (5-1, 3-1)

The question in this game is simply, how bad will Colorado lose by?

Prediction: USC 52, Colorado 13

Last Week: 6-2
Overall: 56-10

The Hail Mary - Week 6

Sunday, October 14

St. Louis (3-2) at Miami (2-3), Miami favored by 3 1/2

Prediction: Miami 20, St. Louis 17

Detroit (1-3) at Philadelphia (3-2), Philadelphia favored by 5

Prediction: Philadelphia 35, Detroit 21

Oakland (1-3) at Atlanta (5-0), Atlanta favored by 9

Prediction: Atlanta 27, Oakland 20

Cincinnati (3-2) at Cleveland (0-5), Cincinnati favored by 2

Prediction: Cleveland 24, Cincinnati 23

Indianapolis (2-2) at New York Jets (2-3), New York Jets favored by 3

Prediction: New York Jets 26, Indianapolis 21

Kansas City (1-4) at Tampa Bay (1-3), Tampa Bay favored by 3 1/2

Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, Kansas City 21

Dallas (2-2) at Baltimore (4-1), Baltimore favored by 3 1/2

Prediction: Baltimore 25, Dallas 20

Buffalo (2-3) at Arizona (4-1), Arizona favored by 5

Prediction: Arizona 34, Buffalo 24

New England (3-2) at Seattle (3-2), New England favored by 3 1/2

Prediction: New England 23, Seattle 19

Minnesota (4-1) at Washington (2-3), No line

Prediction: Washington 24, Minnesota 23

New York Giants (3-2) at San Francisco (4-1), San Francisco favored by 5

Prediction: San Francisco 25, New York Giants 19

Green Bay (2-3) at Houston (5-0), Houston favored by 3 1/2

Prediction: Green Bay 27, Houston 23

Monday, October 15

Denver (2-3) at San Diego (3-2), San Diego favored by 2

Prediction: San Diego 28, Denver 24 

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-8
Overall Against the Spread: 35-39-3

Last Week Straight Up: 10-4
Overall Straight Up: 47-30

Cram Session - Week 7

Thursday, October 11

Pittsburgh (2-2) at Tennessee (1-4), Pittsburgh favored by 5 1/2


Prediction: Pittsburgh 23, Tennessee 20


Top 10 

#1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0) at Missouri (3-3, 0-3)

Prediction: Alabama 42, Missouri 7

#3 South Carolina (6-0, 4-0) at #9 LSU (5-1, 1-1)

Prediction: LSU 17, South Carolina 14

#4 Florida (5-0, 4-0) at Vanderbilt (2-3, 1-2)

Prediction: Florida 26, Vanderbilt 20

#5 West Virginia (5-0, 2-0) at Texas Tech (4-1, 1-1)

Prediction: West Virginia 49, Texas Tech 34

#6 Kansas State (5-0, 2-0) at Iowa State (4-1, 1-1)

Prediction: Kansas State 28, Iowa State 24

#17 Stanford (4-1) at #7 Notre Dame (5-0)

Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Stanford 17

#8 Ohio State (6-0, 2-0) at Indiana (2-3, 0-2)

Prediction: Ohio State 35, Indiana 20

#10 Oregon State (4-0) at BYU (4-2)

Prediction: BYU 21, Oregon State 13

Last Week: 5-3

Overall: 50-8

The Hail Mary - Week 5

I am getting married on Sunday, and will be in Miami prior to that, so The Hail Mary this week will be abbreviated. Just going to include my predictions, and not any of my incredibly awesome analysis. I know some of you might be thankful for that but please try to keep it to yourselves. I'll be on my honeymoon next week but will try to at least put up a post with picks.



Thursday, October 4

Arizona (4-0) at St. Louis (2-2), Arizona favored by 1 1/2

Prediction: Arizona 21, St. Louis 16



Sunday, October 7

Miami (1-3) at Cincinnati (3-1), Cincinnati favored by 4 1/2

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Miami 24

Philadelphia (3-1) at Pittsburgh (1-2), Pittsburgh favored by 3 1/2

Prediction: Pittsburgh 23, Philadelphia 17

Atlanta (4-0) at Washington (2-2), Atlanta favored by 3

Prediction: Atlanta 37, Washington 30

Green Bay (2-2) at Indianapolis (1-2), Green Bay favored by 7

Prediction: Green Bay 30, Indianapolis 20

Baltimore (3-1) at Kansas City (1-3), Baltimore favored by 4 1/2

Prediction: Baltimore 29, Kansas City 17

Cleveland (0-4) at New York Giants (2-2), New York Giants favored by 10

Prediction: New York Giants 26, Cleveland 21

Seattle (2-2) at Carolina (1-3), Carolina favored by 3

Prediction: Carolina 23, Seattle 18

Chicago (3-1) at Jacksonville (1-3), Chicago favored by 5 1/2

Prediction: Chicago 25, Jacksonville 16

Buffalo (2-2) at San Francisco (3-1), San Francisco favored by 9 1/2

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Buffalo 17

Tennessee (1-3) at Minnesota (3-1), Minnesota favored by 5 1/2

Prediction: Minnesota 24, Tennessee 16

Denver (2-2) at New England (2-2), New England favored by 7

Prediction: New England 33, Denver 28

San Diego (3-1) at New Orleans (0-4), New Orleans favored by 3 1/2

Prediction: New Orleans 35, San Diego 28

Monday, October 8

Houston (4-0) at New York Jets (2-2), Houston favored by 7 1/2

Prediction: Houston 24, New York Jets 13

Last Week Against the Spread:  9-5-1
Overall Against the Spread: 29-31-3

Last Week Straight Up: 12-3
Overall Straight Up: 37-26
 

Cram Session - Week 6

I am getting married on Sunday, and will be in Miami prior to that, so Cram Session this week will be abbreviated. Just going to include my predictions, and not any of my incredibly awesome analsysis. I know some of you might be thankful for that but please try to keep it to yourselves. I'll be on my honeymoon next week but will try to at least put up a post with picks.


Games That Matter To Me

#21 Nebraska (4-1, 1-0) at #12 Ohio State (5-0, 1-0)

Prediction: Ohio State 28, Nebraska 24


Top 10

#23 Washington (3-1, 1-0) at #2 Oregon (5-0, 2-0)


Prediction: Oregon 42, Washington 17

#3 Florida State (5-0, 2-0) at North Carolina State (3-2, 0-1)

Prediction: Florida State 35, North Carolina State 21

#4 LSU (5-0, 1-0) at #10 Florida (4-0, 3-0)

Prediction: Florida 21, LSU 20

#5 Georgia (5-0, 3-0) at #6 South Carolina (5-0, 3-0)

Prediction: Georgia 35, South Carolina 31

Kansas (1-3, 0-1) at #7 Kansas State (4-0, 1-0)

Prediction: Kansas State 40, Kansas 26

#8 West Virginia (4-0, 1-0) at #11 Texas (4-0, 1-0)

Prediction: Texas 40, West Virginia 34

Miami (4-1) vs. #9 Notre Dame (4-0) in Chicago, Illinois

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Miami 14

Last Week: 9-0
Overall: 45-5