The Hail Mary - Week 8

The talk around here isn't so much about the Redskins trip to Pittsburgh, it is about the potential of Hurricane Sandy making the Derecho from this past summer look like a little girlie man. I'm hoping the weatherman end up wrong like they usually are, as the though of losing power sucks. If the power has to go out, can it wait until Tuesday when no football is on?


Sunday, October 28

Miami (3-3) at New York Jets (3-4), New York Jets favored by 2 1/2

The AFC East, like pretty much all of the AFC, is a jumbled mess. This is a critical game for Miami, who already lost to the Jets earlier this season, so a loss here would having them 2 1/2 games behind the Jets. There is a lot of bad blood heading into this game between Reggie Bush and pretty much the entire Jets team. Bush thought the Jets had a bounty on him or something, so when Darelle Revis ended up being lost for the season in their game against each other, Bush said it was karma. The Jets didn't take kindly to that and have made it clear that they will be looking to hit Bush hard and often. That sounds kind of dirty. The Dolphins defense stuffs the run but is susceptible to the pass, and guys like Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley have started to emerge for the Jets. These are two evenly matched teams, with two evenly matched mediocre quarterbacks, so expect a close one.

Prediction: New York Jets 21, Miami 17

Atlanta (6-0) at Philadelphia (3-3), Philadelphia favored by 2

Andy Reid is 13-0 as coach of the Eagles when coming off a bye week. That has to be the reason that Vegas has installed the Eagles as 2 point favorites against the unbeaten Falcons. This will be the debut of new Philadelphia defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. The first test of the difference between him and Juan Castilla will likely come in this game. I think the Eagles will once again have to hold on to a lead late, but this time will be successful and prevent Matt Ryan from leading a game winning drive, keeping Reid's unbeaten record intact.

Prediction: Philadelphia 25, Atlanta 22

Washington (3-4) at Pittsburgh (3-3), Pittsburgh favored by 4 1/2

It will be a strange sight for Redskins fans on Sunday. Not just because the Steelers are wearing some of the ugliest throwback jerseys you have ever seen, but also because London Fletcher will likely not be playing. If he does not suit up it would break his streak of 231 consecutive games played. That is an amazing stat, especially playing a position as taxing as middle linebacker. The question facing Washington is the same as every week, can the defense do enough to supplement the strong play of the offense? That isn't likely as the Steelers have a penchant for hitting the big play in the passing game with WRs Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace. Also, if Fletcher doesn't play that could open things up for Steelers TE Heath Miller to have an even bigger presence than he normally would. The Redskins offense should be fine as the Steelers defense is pretty mediocre, especially without Troy Polamalu. This will be a typical Skins game, back and forth, undecided until the final minute, with Washington finding a way to give the game away.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Washington 24

Carolina (1-5) at Chicago (5-1), Chicago favored by 7 1/2

I get to see Cam vs. RG3 next weekend, and it won't quite be what I envisioned when I asked for tickets to that game three months ago. Cam's stock has plummeted this season as the Panthers have shown no sign of improvement. Cam and the offense have regressed badly, as the Panthers don't seem to realize that they have three pretty good running backs and should use them. Until they figure out their run game, there will be too much pressure on Newton and the offense will continue to languish. The Bears defense seems to be channeling the 2006 version that led them to the Super Bowl. They definitely aren't a defense you want to face if you are yearning for some confidence.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Carolina 17

San Diego (3-3) at Cleveland (1-6), San Diego favored by 3

The Chargers are hoping a week off after blowing a 24-0 second half lead at home will completely wipe away that embarrassment. It also helps that they get to face the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are competitive but still don't know how to win games. If Norv can't lead his team to victory in this game, he might want to start packing things in his office. Also, Philip Rivers has looked decidedly mediocre for a year and a half now, he seems to be following the Carson Palmer career trajectory.

Prediction: San Diego 26, Cleveland 21

Seattle (4-3) at Detroit (2-4), Detroit favored by 2

Well, those 2011 Detroit Lions sure were cute weren't they? But, the world remembered that certain things have to be a certain way and one of those things is the Detroit Lions sucking at football. Fortunately for them, they will likely get a one week reprieve as they host a Seattle team that can't win on the road. I think Russell Wilson will find himself running for his life from Ndamukong Suh, Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Marshawn Lynch won't be able to single-handedly carry the Seahawks to victory.

Prediction: Detroit 21, Seattle 14

Jacksonville (1-5) at Green Bay (4-3), Green Bay favored by 15 1/2

The Packers have looked like the Packers we expected to see the last two weeks, while Jacksonville fans found out that Blaine Gabbert is actually better than somebody, as Chad Henne was atrocious in relief of him last weekend. 15 1/2 is a lot of points though, so while I don't expect a close game, I at least think Jacksonville can lose by less than that.

Prediction: Green Bay 27, Jacksonville 14

Indianapolis (3-3) at Tennessee (3-4), Tennessee favored by 3 1/2

My preseason AFC South pick of Tennessee looked dead in the water a few weeks ago but has now won two straight and is right back in the thick of things. They still probably won't win the division, but a playoff appearance no longer seems out of the question. If they keep winning it makes for an interesting discussion when Jake Locker is healthy to return from injury. Do they stick with Hasselbeck or go back to the future?

Prediction: Tennessee 31, Indianapolis 21

New England (4-3) "at"St. Louis (3-4), New England favored by 7, in London, England

The Rams finally got above .500 for the first time since 2007 a few weeks ago but the honeymoon was more like a minimoon and they are back to their usual under .500 selves. I am wondering when the excuses will stop for Sam Bradford, who still seems pretty mediocre and not like someone you can win a Super Bowl with. The Patriots continue to under perform but they aren't performing at a level where a loss to the Rams should be possible.

Prediction: New England 30, St. Louis 17

Oakland (2-4) at Kansas City (1-5), Kansas City favored by 1

Another week of just two 4:00 games, whoever put the schedule together this year should be fired. Looking at the schedule the rest of the year, as long as bye weeks keep happening these few 4:00 games will be the norm. As you can tell, I'm not really interested in talking about this crappy game. Watch if you like field goals.

Prediction: Oakland 15, Kansas City 12

New York Giants (5-2) at Dallas (3-3), New York Giants favored by 2 1/2

Quite a bit has changed since the season opener when Dallas knocked off the Giants in New York. Tony Romo has been mediocre to bad since that game, which has meant the rest of the Cowboys offense has been on that level. The Cowboys defense has played well but lost one of their best players, LB Sean Lee to a season ending injury. His absence will be felt immediately this weekend, when the Cowboys give up the most points they have allowed this season. The Giants offense seems to be getting into gear and revenge will definitely be on their minds in the new Cowboys Stadium, a stadium they have never lost in.

Prediction: New York Giants 34, Dallas 27

New Orleans (2-4) at Denver (3-3), Denver favored by 6

I am downright giddy to watch this game. Peyton Manning vs. Drew Brees equals a lot of offense and watching defenses squirm. I expect we will see a back and forth battle between two of the premiere players at their position. Denver has a little more defense than the Saints do and add that to the homefield advantage means a Broncos win.

Prediction: Denver 38, New Orleans 31



Monday, October 29

San Francisco (5-2) at Arizona (4-3), San Francisco favored by 7

If things break the way I expect, with Seattle and St. Louis losing on Sunday, the 49ers could have a stranglehold on the division with a win over Arizona Monday night. The Cardinals 4-0 start seems like a distant memory. John Skelton looks worse than Kevin Kolb, and down to their third running back, the injuries have taken their toll on Arizona. The 49ers offense has looked pretty bad the last two weeks, and it took a monster game from Frank Gore last week to beat Seattle. Alex Smith has looked really bad and could really use a good game here to repair his confidence. I'm not sure how good a game Alex will have, but I know the 49ers can run it down Arizona's throats. I also know that the 49ers defense can dominate the Cardinals hurting offense and lead to a relatively easy victory.

Prediction: San Francisco 26, Arizona 17

Last Week Against the Spread: 5-7-1
Overall Against the Spread: 47-53-4

Last Week Straight Up: 11-2
Overall Straight Up: 66-38