Sunday, September 23
San Francisco (2-0) at Minnesota (1-1), San Francisco favored by 7
Randy Moss, Rand U, returns to Minnesota. If he had never had that ill fated run in 2010 where he played just four games for the Vikings he might actually receive some cheers. But I am sure lots of Vikings fans still have a bad taste in their mouths from that disastrous time. It remains to be seen how much of a factor Moss will be, as he was pretty much invisible against Detroit last week. The matchup to watch will be Adrian Peterson going up against the stout 49ers run defense. Can Peterson get in the end zone? That will likely be the only thing worth watching, as I don't expect this game to be close. Look for top 10 QB, Alex Smith to have another good day.
Prediction: San Francisco 27, Minnesota 13
New York Jets (1-1) at Miami (1-1), New York Jets favored by 3
As I mentioned in the column last week, the NFL is a week to week league and these two teams personified that last weekend. The Jets looked fantastic in Week 1 but then got their butts handed to them by the Steelers last weekend. The Dolphins looked down and out against Houston, but then on the back of Reggie Bush destroyed the Raiders. No matter what the records or the level of talent on the field, the Jets always have problems with Miami. This game will be no different, but the Jets defense is going to force Ryan Tannehill into one too many mistakes.
Prediction: New York Jets 17, Miami 16
Cincinnati (1-1) at Washington (1-1), Washington favored by 4
The Redskins were up 21-6 on the Rams, and looked like they were cruising on their way to a 2-0 start. Then the defense completely fell apart, making the Rams look like the old greatest show on turf. The Skins still had a chance to tie, but Josh Morgan committed a multitude of dumb acts, starting with running backwards after catching the ball, and then throwing the ball in Cortland Finnegan's face, moving the Skins 15 yards back. Then Mike Shanahan decided that Billy Cundiff could make a 62 yarder because he kicks the ball far off a tee, like either of those two things have anything to do with the other. Now, the Redskins have to overcome that comedy of errors and prepare for the Bengals. In addition to the loss in the standings, they also lost Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo for the season. The defense wasn't playing all that great with them, but it's never good to lose two of your starters. The only offensive weapon that is really scare on the Bengals is A.J. Green but if Dalton is given time to find him, he could tear the Skins secondary apart. RG3 continues to play well, although he got lucky that he didn't have a few more interceptions against the Rams, as they had their chances. He took some major hits last weekend, so he has to try to extend plays as much as possible without getting himself killed. There is no denying how improved the Skins offense looks with him under center. I think their success will continue Sunday and help Washington squeak out a win.
Prediction: Washington 28, Cincinnati 26
St. Louis (1-1) at Chicago (1-1), Chicago favored by 8 1/2
Jay Cutler reminded me of myself when I used to play sports last weekend. Much like me, he doesn't handle things not going his way very well, which isn't a good thing when you are under the microscope like a quarterback is. His frustration levels could rise again Sunday as he will likely be without RB Matt Forte. He and Brandon Marshall need to get back on the same page, as they couldn't get anything going against Green Bay. As for the Rams, I don't expect the offense to find things as easy this weekend, facing a tough Bears defense.
Prediction: Chicago 24, St. Louis 20
Buffalo (1-1) at Cleveland (0-2), Buffalo favored by 3
I'll probably regret this but I am picking Cleveland. The Bills were terrible in their first road game, and the Browns have been competitive in both of their losses. Trent Richardson had his coming out party last weekend, and even Brandon Weeden played well. As long as the Browns don't allow C.J. Spiller to completely torch them, they should earn their first win of the season.
Prediction: Cleveland 23, Buffalo 21
Tampa Bay (1-1) at Dallas (1-1), Dallas favored by 7
I was all for Greg Schiano trying to disrupt the victory formation in last weekend's game against the Giants. He did it at Rutgers in college and had it work, and they were only down one possession and still had a chance. I hate all these stupid unwritten rules of sportsmanship, like these guys are still 12 and eating oranges after the game. If you still have a chance to win you play until their are zeros on the clock. Schiano has said he will do it again and I am glad he isn't backing down against the old fogeys of the game. He may get another chance to disrupt a victory formation this weekend, as I expect them to be in another tight battle when they play the Cowboys.
Prediction: Dallas 35, Tampa Bay 31
Detroit (1-1) at Tennessee (0-2), Detroit favored by 3
Despite them looking like one of the worst teams in football so far, I am being stubborn and picking the Titans. The Titans were my surprise pick to take the AFC South and while that is looking increasingly unlikely, I don't feel it is that far fetched to pick them to beat Detroit at home. The Lions barely beat St. Louis at home, and were completely outclassed and outmatched by the Niners last weekend. They may have only lost by 8 to the Niners but if you watched that game, you never really felt the Lions had a chance to win. The Lions secondary is very shaky and I think this is a team that Jake Locker can have some success and build some confidence against. Hey, Chris Johnson may even decide to show up!
Prediction: Tennessee 30, Detroit 27
Jacksonville (0-2) at Indianapolis (1-1), Indianapolis favored by 2 1/2
Andrew Luck earned his first career victory last weekend against Minnesota and has a great shot at his first NFL winning streak when they host Jacksonville. After a week of looking somewhat improved, Blaine Gabbert regressed to being worthless again against Houston. Against the Colts he should land somewhere in the middle but it won't be enough to get the Jags off the schneid.
Prediction: Indianapolis 25, Jacksonville 15
Kansas City (0-2) at New Orleans (0-2), New Orleans favored by 9
This week's toilet bowl takes place in New Orleans between the winless Chiefs and the winless Saints. When doing my season previews I didn't really want to pick the Saints to win the South, but even with all the upheaval still saw at least 10 wins on their schedule. That number is down to 8 now, as I had them starting the year 2-0. The offense has been putting up points but hasn't been the smooth running unit fans have gotten used to. The defense has been absolutely dreadful and really hasn't given New Orleans a chance. Because of that, maybe Jamaal Charles can finally get going and make me not regret drafting him on two of my four fantasy teams. I think this will be another typical high scoring Saints game, but with them on the right side of things for the first time this season.
Prediction: New Orleans 38, Kansas City 30
Philadelphia (2-0) at Arizona (2-0), Philadelphia favored by 4
The Eagles have been handing the ball to the other team like a gift the first two games but their defense has played great and bailed out the offense, leading to the 2-0 start. If they want that sucess to continue they will have to stop turning the ball over so much. Michael Vick can look outstanding and awful all in the same play. He has been in the league way too long to still be trying to make some of the forced throws he does. The Cardinals defense is looking like one of the better units in the league so Vick will once again have his work cut out for him. I think that LeSean McCoy can have a big game and whether the Cardinals start ex-Eagle Kevin Kolb or John Skelton, the Eagles will get revenge for last season's loss.
Prediction: Philadelphia 23, Arizona 16
Atlanta (2-0) at San Diego (2-0), San Diego favored by 3
Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game has been on point the first two games but Michael Turner has looked like he became 105 in the off-season. He looks old and slow, and then added to the strikes against him by getting into trouble after the game last week. The Chargers looked like a well oiled machine in decimating the Titans last Sunday, and the defense especially has looked strong. But, they are still coached by Norv Turner, which means they are due to lose a game with some bad coaching.
Prediction: Atlanta 22, San Diego 20
Houston (2-0) at Denver (1-1), Line is even
Vegas doesn't even know who to pick in this game. It appears I got on the Peyton Manning bandwagon too fast, as he was terrible in the first quarter Monday night, throwing three interceptions. He eventually righted the ship and helped the Broncos make a game of it, but you can definitely see that he lost some of his arm strength. The Broncos need to let him to stick to intermediate routes, especially because he someone like Demaryius Thomas who can turn a 5 yard catch into a 80-yard touchdown with his speed. The Texans passing game hasn't really gotten going but it didn't need to last week with Arian Foster and Ben Tate running wild. This game will be a defensive struggle, and whichever teams win the turnover battle, will end up winning the game. I like the Broncos.
Prediction: Denver 24, Houston 21
Pittsburgh (1-1) at Oakland (0-2), Pittsburgh favored by 4 1/2
The game was six years ago but I still remember Ben Roethlisberger's awful four interception performance last time he played at Oakland. Ben should find things much easier this time. The Raiders can't run the ball and thus can't control the clock, so the Steelers will have plenty of possessions. Carson Palmer has played ok but the rest of the Raiders have looked dreadful so far, which means no chance in hell I pick them to beat Pittsburgh.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 21, Oakland 10
New England (1-1) at Baltimore (1-1), Baltimore favored by 3
This should be a hell of a game. A rematch of last year's AFC Championship, the loser will find themselves under .500. The central goats from last year's game for the Ravens, Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff are both gone, but most of that Baltimore team still has a bad taste in their mouths. The Patriots want to avoid a 2 game losing streak, something that has not happened often in the Belichick era. The story around the Patriots this week has mostly been how Wes Welker seems to be getting phased out of the New England offense. This week his numbers may be down simply because he has always struggled against the Ravens. This game is essentially a pick em and in those types of games, I lean to the home team, especially because the Ravens have always been tremendous at M&T Bank Stadium.
Prediction: Baltimore 20, New England 19
Monday, September 24
Green Bay (1-1) at Seattle (1-1), Green Bay favored by 3 1/2
Before the season this probably looked like a Green Bay blowout, but two weeks in and this is another toss up of a game. The Green Bay offense is not looking like anything close to the unit that dominated teams last year. The Seahawks no name defense remains nameless, but is starting to be collectively known an intimidating group. All that being said, I think this is the game that Aaron Rodgers and company get the aerial assault going. I also think that the Green Bay defense can make things challenging for rookie Russell Wilson.
Prediction: Green Bay 35, Seattle 24
Last Week Against the Spread: 6-9-1
Overall Against the Spread: 13-18-1
Last Week Straight Up: 9-7
Overall Straight Up: 18-14
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