The Hail Mary - Week 4

Life is going to be pretty busy for me the next few weeks. I get married next Sunday, then have a friend's baby's baptism the Sunday after that. So this Sunday I want to sit on my butt, be lazy, and watch football for ten hours. There are some pretty good games to look forward to so it should be a nice little Sunday.

Sunday, September 30

San Francisco (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1), San Francisco favored by 4

I didn't see the 49ers debacle of a performance against Minnesota but it was quite the shock to the system. This weekend's game against the New York Jets becomes pretty important as the NFC West seems to be much better than in years past. The Cardinals could very well be 4-0 after Sunday, so a loss by the Niners would already have them two back. The Jets suffered a massive blow to their defense as stud corner Darelle Revis was lost for the year. Things are such a mess that the Jets are talking about playing RB Joe McKnight at corner. The 49ers passing game isn't prolific, but maybe Randy Moss can do a little damage, or even Michael Lobstertree will find some openings. The 49ers need to get ahead early, because their offense has trouble coming from behind. Trailing the Vikings led to the running game becoming an afterthought, despite Gore rushing pretty well when given the chance. The 49ers defense needs to return to form this weekend too, and not allow Mark Sanchez to have the success that Christian Ponder had. This is a game where I will believe in coach Harbaugh's ability to motivate and inspire the team. I think the Niners will come out focused, keep Sanchez on his toes all day, and earn a much needed victory.

Prediction: San Francisco 27, New York Jets 17

Minnesota (2-1) at Detroit (1-2), Detroit favored by 4 1/2

I made fun of Bill Simmons a few weeks ago when he suggested the Vikings were possibly sneaky good, but after last weekend it looks like the joke was on me. Christian Ponder has played very well this season and could be making the proverbial second year leap. The Lions defense remains a mess, and for the Lions to have success this year they will need to start winning some shootouts. Matthew Stafford is expected to start, even with his injury that knocked him out of the game last week. This game should be exciting and go down to the wire, but I need to see Minnesota win a road game before I start picking them.

Prediction: Detroit 30, Minnesota 27

Carolina (1-2) at Atlanta (3-0), Atlanta favored by 7

While Ponder seems to be making the leap in his second year, Cam Newton has regressed thus far. It culminated with an embarrassing performance on Thursday night football last week against the Giants. The Falcons have been perhaps the best team in football through the first three weeks, and QB Matt Ryan is playing the best football of his career. The rushing game even showed signs of life last weekend, which if it continues would make the Falcons even more dangerous. The Panthers defense still hasn't proven they can stop anyone, so it will be a long day at the Georgia Dome for them.

Prediction: Atlanta 38, Carolina 21

New England (1-2) at Buffalo (2-1), New England favored by 4

The Patriots are under .500 for the first time since 2003 and if they lose this game will have their first three game losing streak since 2002. Their last trip to Buffalo was a memorable loss, where they blew a huge early lead and was the Bills first victory against the Patriots in 16 games. The Bills have bounced back nicely from their Week 1 debacle, and are expecting RB Fred Jackson to return for this game. The Patriots offensive line has struggled but the Bills high priced defensive line has struggled worse. I think Brady will have tons of time to feel comfortable and a comfortable Brady is a dangerous one.

Prediction: New England 35, Buffalo 24

San Diego (2-1) at Kansas City (1-2), San Diego favored by 1

The Chiefs were trailing the Saints 24-6 and staring 0-3 in the face. Then RB Jamaal Charles went into beast mode and the Chiefs saved their season by coming back to win in overtime. Now they have a chance to be tied for the division lead if they can beat the Chargers. San Diego looked woeful at home against the Falcons, or more accurately, like a Norv Turner coached team. Philip Rivers is so maddeningly inconsistent and is completely schizo much like the Chargers are as a team. I expect to see bad Rivers and bad Chargers in Arrowhead Sunday.

Prediction: Kansas City 26, San Diego 23

Seattle (2-1) at St. Louis (1-2), Seattle favored by 2 1/2

The Seahawks should really be 1-2 but they were the final beneficiaries of the replacement ref era. The Rams looked like the really bad 2011 Rams last weekend at Chicago, and nothing like the improved Rams we had seen the first two games. Steven Jackson's is uncertain and and it is unknown if he will play as he has sat out of practice with a groin injury. Whether he does or doesn't won't matter, the Seahawks offense will have trouble moving the ball, and the Rams will remain unbeaten at home.

Prediction: St. Louis 22, Seattle 17

Tennessee (1-2) at Houston (3-0), Houston favored by 12

The Titans pulled off the victory against Detroit and made me look smart for choosing to stick with them. They are huge underdogs at Houston this weekend, as the Texans are coming off an impressive win in Denver. When your quarterback can lose part of his ear and stay in the game, like QB Matt Schaub did, you know you might be in store for a special season. I will finally pick against the Titans, but can only go so far, I still think they will cover. However, I bet Chris Johnson rushes for under 30 yards.

Prediction: Houston 31, Tennessee 21

Miami (1-2) at Arizona (3-0), Arizona favored by 6 1/2

The 49ers have a legitimate challenger in the NFC West this year and that is the Cardinals. They are winning in similar fashion to the 49ers, with the defense being the driver of the team. The defense has to be licking their chops this weekend as they welcome rookie Ryan Tannehill to Arizona. This is the Dolphins first road game since Week 1 at Houston, and it will be interesting to see if they can show any improvement from that joke of a game. As long as Kevin Kolb continues to avoid mistakes, the Cardinals defense should keep carrying them to wins.

Prediction: Arizona 29, Miami 16

Oakland (1-2) at Denver (1-2), Denver favored by 6 1/2

After a nice start to the Peyton era in Denver the last two weeks have been pretty ugly. The Broncos have found themselves facing huge deficits in their two losses to the Falcons and the Texans and unable to play catch up. They hope to have a reprieve when they host the Raiders. The Raiders showed signs of life with a come from behind win against Pittsburgh last weekend. QB Carson Palmer has quietly been having a strong season. The Raiders were also happy to see RB Darren McFadden finally have a breakout performance. Even with all of those good vibes surrounding the Raiders, I am not sold that they can go into Denver and put forth those sorts of performances.

Prediction: Denver 33, Oakland 21

Cincinnati (2-1) at Jacksonville (1-2), Cincinnati favored by 2

I saw the Bengals offense put a whipping on the Redskins firsthand last Sunday. I'm not sure if the Bengals offense is that good or the Skins defense that bad. The Bengals have put up over 30 points the last two weeks, and their passing game looks pretty lethal. The Jags will give them a test, as their defense is certainly not the reason that Jacksonville struggles to win games. The Bengals defense will be able to pressure Blaine Gabbert and force Gabbert into some costly mistakes.

Prediction: Cincinnati 26, Jacksonville 19

Washington (1-2) at Tampa Bay (1-2), Tampa Bay favored by 3

The Skins just can never seem to get both offense and defense on the same page. Last season the defense mostly kept them in games while the offense struggled. This season, the offense is currently number one in the NFL, but the defense, especially the secondary is downright atrocious. The talk all around here is about how many hits RG3 has been taking and how he can't possibly last the season if he keeps taking hits at this rate. That is likely true but against Cincinnati the option stuff was the only way the Redskins were able to get the offense going. Things might be even harder this weekend, as so far the Bucs have been stingy against the run. The Redskins are really hoping they will finally have Pierre Garcon back from the worst foot injury in the history of the world. The Bucs running game has been decent with rookie Doug Martin but the passing game has mostly struggled. If the Skins defense allows Josh Freeman and Vincent Jackson to kill them, their truly is no hope for the Washington defense. Call me crazy but I think for once the defense will step up and make some plays and the Skins will get a much needed victory.

Prediction: Washington 23, Tampa Bay 21

New Orleans (0-3) at Green Bay (1-2), Green Bay favored by 8

Sean Payton seems well on his way to winning coach of the year honors as the Saints stumble through the 2012 season without him. The Packers aren't doing much better, although in reality they should be 2-1, rather than 1-2. Aaron Rodgers has not looked right all year, and he was scrambling for his life Monday night against Seattle. Last year's game between these teams was one of the more entertaining of the year, and even with them being a combined 1-5, I think this year's game will be fun to watch too. The offenses are about even, but the Packers defense has shown improvement this season and will be the difference.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, New Orleans 27

New York Giants (2-1) at Philadelphia (2-1), Philadelphia favored by 2

The whispers are getting louder in Philadelphia that maybe Mike Vick isn't the right guy to be leading the Eagles. He continues to be a turnover machine and the offense was downright terrible against Arizona last weekend. They got behind right away which made their best player, RB LeSean McCoy irrelevant. The Giants plugged in RB Andre Brown and WR Ramses Barden against Carolina, replacing Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks, and didn't miss a beat. Both Bradshaw and Nicks are expected back, but I still expect to see a good dose of Brown and Barden in the gameplan. For the Eagles to win this game, their line will have to protect Vick and keep the Giants fearsome pass rush at bay. I just don't think they will be able to do that for four quarters and turnovers will once again be the Eagles undoing.

Prediction: New York Giants 27, Philadelphia 23

Monday, October 1

Chicago (2-1) at Dallas (2-1), Dallas favored by 4

I like the Bears to win at Dallas but reading about how J'Marcus Webb will have to block Demarcus Ware has me nervous. The Bears will really need Matt Forte to return from injury and play, because the Bears receivers will have some problems against the Cowboys corners Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr. That being said, Tony Romo and the Cowboys offense will have their share of problems going against the Bears defense. It comes down to which quarterback, Jay Cutler or Romo has more derp moments.

Prediction: Chicago 21, Dallas 19

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-8-1
Overall Against the Spread: 20-26-2

Last Week Straight Up: 7-9
Overall Straight Up: 25-23

Cram Session - Week 5

Thursday, September 27

Cleveland (0-3) at Baltimore (2-1), Baltimore favored by 13

This game is pretty terrible and I wouldn't be all that inclined to watch it. But then, at the eleventh hour last night, the referees and the NFL came to an agreement and the days of the replacement officials are over. The replacement officials definitely struggled, especially with simple things like rules and game management. That being said, I expect the honeymoon with the returning officials to last about a quarter, and then us fans will quickly remember why we thought those refs sucked too. As for the actual game, the Ravens have a quick turnaround from a Sunday night game to a Thursday night game. Fortunately for them, they are playing the terrible Browns. The Browns have managed to cover double digit spreads in Baltimore the last two years, but I think the third time will be the charm for the Ravens. I don't think the Browns will be able to muster much on offense, and the Ravens offense is vastly improved.

Prediction: Baltimore 31, Cleveland 14     

Pretty blah weekend in college football but sometimes the weekends that look underwhelming on paper end up being the craziest. As you will see in my picks below, starting tonight, I think the college football world as we currently know it, will start to see some shake up.







Games That Matter To Me

Wisconsin (3-1, 0-0) at #22 Nebraska (3-1, 0-1)

Before the season began this was one of the games I was looking forward to most. Fast forward a month, and only Nebraska is ranked, and I won't even be watching the game. Instead, I will be in Baltimore taking in some Orioles magic as they play host to the Boston Red Sox. I still will be following this game closely, and the Huskers appear to have every advantage necessary to get revenge for the beatdown Wisconsin put on them last season. Huskers QB Taylor Martinez has great numbers through four games, but when he had to play a good team in UCLA, he struggled. A true barometer of how far he has come as a passer will be seen when he faces the Badgers Saturday night. Martinez has to feel better having his top running back, Rex Burkhead back in the lineup. Burkhead didn't miss a beat in his return, rushing for 119 yards and two touchdowns against Idaho State. He won't find as much open field against Wisconsin but Burkhead has successfully run against the best in the past. The Huskers go three deep at running back now, as Burkhead can be spelled by Ameer Abdullah, and Imani Cross. WR Kenny Bell is an all or nothing kind of guy. He had just 1 catch against Idaho State last week, but that one catch went for 68 yards and a touchdown. So far this season he is averaging an astonishing 24.8 yards per catch. The challenge for the Huskers defense will be to contain Badgers RB Montee Ball. Ball shredded Nebraska in Madison last year, but has gotten off to a bit of slow start this season. He left Wisconsin's game last week with a head injury but is expected to play. The Badgers have already switched quarterbacks, as Maryland transfer Danny O'Brien didn't have nearly the same success that transfer Russell Wilson had last season. Freshman Joel Stave played alright in his first start last week, but he might be shell shocked by the atmosphere at Memorial Stadium. His favorite target appears to be WR Jared Abbrederis, who leads the team in catches, yards, and receiving TDs. This will be a good test for the Huskers defense which has come under scrutiny this season. Wisconsin isn't a dominant offensive team, and should be a team Nebraska can limit. I think they make life hard for the freshman Stave and earn their revenge.

Prediction: Nebraska 28, Wisconsin 17


Top 10

Thursday, September 27

#8 Stanford (3-0, 1-0) at Washington (2-1, 0-0)

This is a pick that I will either look like a genius for or be completely wrong. Stanford is playing their first game in 12 days, since they knocked off USC. I haven't forgotten that this is the same Stanford team that nearly lost to San Jose State at home to open the season. Washington looked terrible in their first real test of the season at LSU, but being at home will make a major difference in this game. For Washington to pull the upset they will have to win the turnover battle, bottle up Stepfan Taylor and QB Keith Price will have to make plays with both his arm and his legs. The Cardinal have been hearing about how great they are the last two weeks, and it will be interesting to see how they come out in this game. Weird things happen on Thursday nights and I think the Huskies will add to that list tonight.

Prediction: Washington 24, Stanford 20

Saturday, September 29

Mississippi (3-1, 0-0) at #1 Alabama (4-0, 1-0)

Alabama continues to put whippings on teams each week and looks more and more unbeatable. It is looking like another season where the Crimson Tide's fortunes will come down to a game against LSU. Ole Miss is 3-1 but that one loss was an embarrassing defeat at home against Texas. Alabama will play around with Ole Miss for the first half, then execute them in the second.

Prediction: Alabama 45, Mississippi 9

#2 Oregon (4-0, 1-0) "at" Washington State (2-2, 0-1) in Seattle, Washington

Oregon showed they had a defense last week, shutting down Rich Rodriguez's powerful Arizona attack and shutting them out in a 49-0 rout. Now the Ducks go on the road for the first time this season, and take on the Cougars. The Cougars are still shell shocked after blowing a lead late at home against terrible Colorado. This game will be played at the Seahawks stadium, and while the Cougars will miss the true homefield advantage its not like it earned them much last weekend. I don't foresee another shutout for the Ducks, but I do believe they will remain unchallenged.

Prediction: Oregon 48, Washington State 20

Towson (2-1) at #3 LSU (4-0)

Never thought I would be writing about Towson in Cram Session but here we are, as the Tigers take on the more powerful LSU Tigers. Towson lost to Kent State by 20 earlier this season so things will get very ugly in Baton Rouge. LSU could use the confidence boost, as they struggled greatly last week at Auburn and were nearly upset.

Prediction: LSU 56, Towson 6

#4 Florida State (4-0) at South Florida (2-2)

Florida State struggled early but ended up whipping Clemson and everyone was happy to proclaim them back. I mostly took away that their supposedly vaunted defense was pushed around all game, but I also don't like the Seminoles so I'm slightly biased. Bulls QB B.J. Daniels has been around forever and was there in 2009 when South Florida shocked the Noles in Tallahassee. Many things have changed since then though and Daniels, who already has six interceptions this season, won't be able to pull off another shocker.

Prediction: Florida State 38, South Florida 17

Tennessee (3-1, 0-1) at #5 Georgia (4-0, 2-0)

It hasn't gotten a ton of attention but the Bulldogs have one of the best offenses in the country, putting up over 40 points in each of their first four games. The quarterback battle will be fun, as Bulldogs QB Aaron Murray takes on Vols QB Tyler Bray. Bray only plays offense and won't be able to help a Tennessee defense that has struggled this season. I expect Murray, RB Todd Gurley, and receivers Tavarres King and Michael Bennett to all have big days.

Prediction: Georgia 41, Tennessee 27

#6 South Carolina (4-0, 2-0) at Kentucky (1-3, 0-1)

The Wildcats shouldn't provide much of a test for South Carolina, who has to be looking ahead to the next two weeks. That is when they will host Georgia and then travel to Baton Rouge to take on LSU. The Gamecocks just want to get out of Lexington with a win and no injuries.

Prediction: South Carolina 35, Kentucky 14

#25 Baylor (3-0, 0-0) at #9 West Virginia (3-0, 0-0)

West Virginia makes their Big 12 debut as they host Baylor. The Bears have adjusted to life without RGIII well so far, as the offense remains powerful. That being said, they haven't faced very tough competition and a true test awaits them in Morgantown. Griffin's replacement Nick Florence has put up lots of yards and TDs but also had his fair share of interceptions. Mountaineer QB Geno Smith might be the front runner for the Heisman at this point as he continues to put up video game like numbers. West Virginia had way more trouble with Maryland than I expected and it had to bring their fans down a bit after they had steamrolled their first two opponents. The Bears don't have the defense to make enough plays to win this game and Florence will make too many mistakes.

Prediction: West Virginia 44, Baylor 30

Last Week: 9-1
Overall: 36-5

The Hail Mary - Week 3

Going into last night's Giants/Panthers game, 20 of the 32 teams in the NFL had already suffered a loss. The most striking stat in this early part of the season is that the New Orleans Saints at 0-2, are the only winless team in the NFC. With so many teams with 1 losses, it makes the anticipation for the few games between 2-0 teams even greater this weekend. The Eagles have won each of their games by a point, and baseball stat heads would probably call them lucky. They take on the Cardinals, who shocked the world by winning at New England last weekend. The other game between undefeated teams is the Falcons traveling to the Chargers. Might the Chargers finally be ready to live up to their usual hype? Do Falcons fans even care if they do well in the regular season, since the real issue for them has been playoff failures.

Sunday, September 23

San Francisco (2-0) at Minnesota (1-1), San Francisco favored by 7

Randy Moss, Rand U, returns to Minnesota. If he had never had that ill fated run in 2010 where he played just four games for the Vikings he might actually receive some cheers. But I am sure lots of Vikings fans still have a bad taste in their mouths from that disastrous time. It remains to be seen how much of a factor Moss will be, as he was pretty much invisible against Detroit last week. The matchup to watch will be Adrian Peterson going up against the stout 49ers run defense. Can Peterson get in the end zone? That will likely be the only thing worth watching, as I don't expect this game to be close. Look for top 10 QB, Alex Smith to have another good day.

Prediction: San Francisco 27, Minnesota 13

New York Jets (1-1) at Miami (1-1), New York Jets favored by 3

As I mentioned in the column last week, the NFL is a week to week league and these two teams personified that last weekend. The Jets looked fantastic in Week 1 but then got their butts handed to them by the Steelers last weekend. The Dolphins looked down and out against Houston, but then on the back of Reggie Bush destroyed the Raiders. No matter what the records or the level of talent on the field, the Jets always have problems with Miami. This game will be no different, but the Jets defense is going to force Ryan Tannehill into one too many mistakes.

Prediction: New York Jets 17, Miami 16

Cincinnati (1-1) at Washington (1-1), Washington favored by 4

The Redskins were up 21-6 on the Rams, and looked like they were cruising on their way to a 2-0 start. Then the defense completely fell apart, making the Rams look like the old greatest show on turf. The Skins still had a chance to tie, but Josh Morgan committed a multitude of dumb acts, starting with running backwards after catching the ball, and then throwing the ball in Cortland Finnegan's face, moving the Skins 15 yards back. Then Mike Shanahan decided that Billy Cundiff could make a 62 yarder because he kicks the ball far off a tee, like either of those two things have anything to do with the other. Now, the Redskins have to overcome that comedy of errors and prepare for the Bengals. In addition to the loss in the standings, they also lost Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo for the season. The defense wasn't playing all that great with them, but it's never good to lose two of your starters. The only offensive weapon that is really scare on the Bengals is A.J. Green but if Dalton is given time to find him, he could tear the Skins secondary apart. RG3 continues to play well, although he got lucky that he didn't have a few more interceptions against the Rams, as they had their chances. He took some major hits last weekend, so he has to try to extend plays as much as possible without getting himself killed. There is no denying how improved the Skins offense looks with him under center. I think their success will continue Sunday and help Washington squeak out a win.

Prediction: Washington 28, Cincinnati 26

St. Louis (1-1) at Chicago (1-1), Chicago favored by 8 1/2

Jay Cutler reminded me of myself when I used to play sports last weekend. Much like me, he doesn't handle things not going his way very well, which isn't a good thing when you are under the microscope like a quarterback is. His frustration levels could rise again Sunday as he will likely be without RB Matt Forte. He and Brandon Marshall need to get back on the same page, as they couldn't get anything going against Green Bay. As for the Rams, I don't expect the offense to find things as easy this weekend, facing a tough Bears defense.

Prediction: Chicago 24, St. Louis 20

Buffalo (1-1) at Cleveland (0-2), Buffalo favored by 3

I'll probably regret this but I am picking Cleveland. The Bills were terrible in their first road game, and the Browns have been competitive in both of their losses. Trent Richardson had his coming out party last weekend, and even Brandon Weeden played well. As long as the Browns don't allow C.J. Spiller to completely torch them, they should earn their first win of the season.

Prediction: Cleveland 23, Buffalo 21

Tampa Bay (1-1) at Dallas (1-1), Dallas favored by 7

I was all for Greg Schiano trying to disrupt the victory formation in last weekend's game against the Giants. He did it at Rutgers in college and had it work, and they were only down one possession and still had a chance. I hate all these stupid unwritten rules of sportsmanship, like these guys are still 12 and eating oranges after the game. If you still have a chance to win you play until their are zeros on the clock. Schiano has said he will do it again and I am glad he isn't backing down against the old fogeys of the game. He may get another chance to disrupt a victory formation this weekend, as I expect them to be in another tight battle when they play the Cowboys.

Prediction: Dallas 35, Tampa Bay 31

Detroit (1-1) at Tennessee (0-2), Detroit favored by 3

Despite them looking like one of the worst teams in football so far, I am being stubborn and picking the Titans. The Titans were my surprise pick to take the AFC South and while that is looking increasingly unlikely, I don't feel it is that far fetched to pick them to beat Detroit at home. The Lions barely beat St. Louis at home, and were completely outclassed and outmatched by the Niners last weekend. They may have only lost by 8 to the Niners but if you watched that game, you never really felt the Lions had a chance to win. The Lions secondary is very shaky and I think this is a team that Jake Locker can have some success and build some confidence against. Hey, Chris Johnson may even decide to show up!

Prediction: Tennessee 30, Detroit 27     

Jacksonville (0-2) at Indianapolis (1-1), Indianapolis favored by 2 1/2

Andrew Luck earned his first career victory last weekend against Minnesota and has a great shot at his first NFL winning streak when they host Jacksonville. After a week of looking somewhat improved, Blaine Gabbert regressed to being worthless again against Houston. Against the Colts he should land somewhere in the middle but it won't be enough to get the Jags off the schneid.

Prediction: Indianapolis 25, Jacksonville 15                       

Kansas City (0-2) at New Orleans (0-2), New Orleans favored by 9 

This week's toilet bowl takes place in New Orleans between the winless Chiefs and the winless Saints. When doing my season previews I didn't really want to pick the Saints to win the South, but even with all the upheaval still saw at least 10 wins on their schedule. That number is down to 8 now, as I had them starting the year 2-0. The offense has been putting up points but hasn't been the smooth running unit fans have gotten used to. The defense has been absolutely dreadful and really hasn't given New Orleans a chance. Because of that, maybe Jamaal Charles can finally get going and make me not regret drafting him on two of my four fantasy teams. I think this will be another typical high scoring Saints game, but with them on the right side of things for the first time this season.

Prediction: New Orleans 38, Kansas City 30

Philadelphia (2-0) at Arizona (2-0), Philadelphia favored by 4  

The Eagles have been handing the ball to the other team like a gift the first two games but their defense has played great and bailed out the offense, leading to the 2-0 start. If they want that sucess to continue they will have to stop turning the ball over so much. Michael Vick can look outstanding and awful all in the same play. He has been in the league way too long to still be trying to make some of the forced throws he does. The Cardinals defense is looking like one of the better units in the league so Vick will once again have his work cut out for him. I think that LeSean McCoy can have a big game and whether the Cardinals start ex-Eagle Kevin Kolb or John Skelton, the Eagles will get revenge for last season's loss.

Prediction: Philadelphia 23, Arizona 16  

Atlanta (2-0) at San Diego (2-0), San Diego favored by 3

Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game has been on point the first two games but Michael Turner has looked like he became 105 in the off-season. He looks old and slow, and then added to the strikes against him by getting into trouble after the game last week. The Chargers looked like a well oiled machine in decimating the Titans last Sunday, and the defense especially has looked strong. But, they are still coached by Norv Turner, which means they are due to lose a game with some bad coaching.
 
Prediction: Atlanta 22, San Diego 20   

Houston (2-0) at Denver (1-1), Line is even

Vegas doesn't even know who to pick in this game. It appears I got on the Peyton Manning bandwagon too fast, as he was terrible in the first quarter Monday night, throwing three interceptions. He eventually righted the ship and helped the Broncos make a game of it, but you can definitely see that he lost some of his arm strength. The Broncos need to let him to stick to intermediate routes, especially because he someone like Demaryius Thomas who can turn a 5 yard catch into a 80-yard touchdown with his speed. The Texans passing game hasn't really gotten going but it didn't need to last week with Arian Foster and Ben Tate running wild. This game will be a defensive struggle, and whichever teams win the turnover battle, will end up winning the game. I like the Broncos.

Prediction: Denver 24, Houston 21   

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Oakland (0-2), Pittsburgh favored by 4 1/2

The game was six years ago but I still remember Ben Roethlisberger's awful four interception performance last time he played at Oakland. Ben should find things much easier this time. The Raiders can't run the ball and thus can't control the clock, so the Steelers will have plenty of possessions. Carson Palmer has played ok but the rest of the Raiders have looked dreadful so far, which means no chance in hell I pick them to beat Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 21, Oakland 10   

New England (1-1) at Baltimore (1-1), Baltimore favored by 3

This should be a hell of a game. A rematch of last year's AFC Championship, the loser will find themselves under .500. The central goats from last year's game for the Ravens, Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff are both gone, but most of that Baltimore team still has a bad taste in their mouths. The Patriots want to avoid a 2 game losing streak, something that has not happened often in the Belichick era. The story around the Patriots this week has mostly been how Wes Welker seems to be getting phased out of the New England offense. This week his numbers may be down simply because he has always struggled against the Ravens. This game is essentially a pick em and in those types of games, I lean to the home team, especially because the Ravens have always been tremendous at M&T Bank Stadium.

Prediction: Baltimore 20, New England 19         

Monday, September 24 

Green Bay (1-1) at Seattle (1-1), Green Bay favored by 3 1/2

Before the season this probably looked like a Green Bay blowout, but two weeks in and this is another toss up of a game. The Green Bay offense is not looking like anything close to the unit that dominated teams last year. The Seahawks no name defense remains nameless, but is starting to be collectively known an intimidating group. All that being said, I think this is the game that Aaron Rodgers and company get the aerial assault going. I also think that the Green Bay defense can make things challenging for rookie Russell Wilson.

Prediction: Green Bay 35, Seattle 24

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-9-1
Overall Against the Spread: 13-18-1

Last Week Straight Up: 9-7
Overall Straight Up: 18-14  
 

Cram Session - Week 4

Thursday, September 20

New York Giants (1-1) at Carolina (1-1), New York Giants favored by 1 1/2

The Giants have a litany of injuries on offense coming into tonight's game. They will be without RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WRs Hakeem Nicks and Dominek Hixon, and offensive lineman David Diehl. Despite that adversity, I still like the Giants to win tonight and to put up a lot of points. The Giants are one of the better road teams in the league over the last few seasons. In fact, last season, they went on the road without Nicks and Bradshaw and defeated the New England Patriots. The Carolina defense isn't dominating enough to be able to slow the Giants down, even without the missing players. The Panthers running game showed a pulse last week against the dreadful Saints defense, but facing the Giants front won't quite be the same. I think the Giants have the athletes on the front seven to spy Cam Newton effectively, and not allow him to take over the game. Sometimes games just come down to matchups, and I feel the Giants match up very well with Carolina.

Prediction: New York Giants 33, Carolina 28


Conference action begins to ramp up as we enter quarter mark of the college football season. This week features some tough tests for top 10 teams in conference. #4 Florida State hosts #10 Clemson, while #6 Oklahoma hosts #15 Kansas State. But the best game this weekend should be when Michigan takes on Notre Dame in South Bend under the lights.

Games That Matter To Me

#18 Michigan (2-1) at #11 Notre Dame (3-0)

This is perhaps the best rivalry in college football, and when it comes to producing thrilling moments, I can't think of another rivalry that comes close to this one. Unfortunately for Notre Dame they have been on the losing end of those most recent thrilling finishes. The last three seasons have all been gut punching defeats for Notre Dame, with none being worse than last year's collapse in Ann Arbor. This game will come down to one factor, Michigan QB Denard Robinson. Robinson has shredded the Irish the last two seasons. Two years ago in South Bend, he totaled over 500 yards of offense in single-handedly defeating Notre Dame. Last year, after a slow start, he played that old game of 500 in the fourth quarter, just tossing bombs in the air, and his receivers making catches. Robinson has his detractors, but all I know is the man is capable of taking over an entire game. The Irish defense seems vastly improved this year, especially their front seven. It will be up to that front seven to contain Robinson, because if Robinson is given time to throw, he can certainly pick apart a shaky Notre Dame secondary. There is a 40% chance of rain for this game, and that will be something to definitely watch out for, as it could effect Robinson greatly. Offensively for Notre Dame, Everett Golson needs to continue his unspectacular but steady play. He didn't throw the ball well at Michigan State but he avoided mistakes and didn't hurt his team. The offense has been sluggish the last couple of weeks and to win this game they will have to produce a little more. The Irish hope that Cierre Wood knocked the rust off last week in his first game, and can produce a 100 yard game against the Wolverines on Saturday. I have tempered my enthusiasm with Notre Dame's 3-0 start. It was definitely nice to beat the piss out of the overrated Spartans but I have seen this story before. The Irish need to continue to focus and not buy into the hype people are so quick to throw on them. Call me crazy, but this year, I think Notre Dame will finally be on the right side of a thriller against Michigan.

Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Michigan 24

Idaho State (1-1) at #25 Nebraska (2-1)

The biggest news coming out of last week's Huskers win against Arkansas State was coach Bo Pelini having to be hospitalized during the second half. He checked out fine and will be on the sidelines Saturday when the Huskers entertain Idaho State. Idaho State was blown out at Air Force in their opener so I can't say I like their chances to keep things close with Nebraska. The Huskers get back stud RB Rex Burkhead this week. The running game did fine without Rex but it never hurts to have your number one guy back. The Bengals have not recorded a sack this year, so I guess that is one thing to watch to see if Nebraska can keep them on the schneid.

Prediction: Nebraska 48, Idaho State 14


Top 10

Florida Atlantic (1-2) at #1 Alabama (3-0)

Former Huskers defensive coordinator Carl Pelini is taking his lumps as he tries to bring winning back to Florida Atlantic. Last week it was getting run over by Georgia, this week Alabama get's a turn. The only thing slightly interesting about this game will be seeing if the Crimson Tide can record a shutout for the third straight game.

Prediction: Alabama 42, Florida Atlantic 0

#2 LSU (3-0, 0-0) at Auburn (1-2, 0-1)

Gene Chizik's fall from national championship coach to Cam Newton flukefraud coach has been swift. Auburn had to go to overtime last week to beat UL-Monroe and avoid being 0-3. Cam may actually be at this game since his Panthers play tonight, but unfortunately for Auburn he has used up all his eligibility. Auburn QB Kiehl Frazier hopes to improve upon his no touchdowns, 3 interceptions SEC debut he had against Mississippi State. However, going up against the LSU defense, he may put up even worse numbers.

Prediction: LSU 38, Auburn 14

#22 Arizona (3-0, 0-0) at #3 Oregon (3-0, 0-0)

The first test of the Rich Rod era in Arizona couldn't be any tougher. His Wildcats are tasked with trying to slow down the buzz saw that is the Oregon Ducks. Rodriguez has made an immediate impact on offense, as the Wildcats have been prolific themselves thus far. Senior QB Matt Scott has quickly made Arizona fans forget about Nick Foles. He has 7 TDs and just 1 pick thus far and also has rushed for 190 yards and two touchdowns. He has dangerous weapons in WRs Austin Hill and Dan Buckner, and an effective running game, led by Ka'Deem Carey. That all being said, I don't think the Arizona defense will be up to the task of slowing the Ducks weapons. RB De'Anthony Thomas has just 13 carries this year and has already run for 228 yards and 4 TDs. Kenjon Barner is the workhorse out of the Ducks backfield as evidenced by his 34 carry, 201 yard performance a few weeks against Fresno State. The move to freshman QB Marcus Mariota has been smooth thus far, although this game will be his first true test. Expect to see a track meet, and the Ducks to have a little more firepower to propel them to the win.

Prediction: Oregon 47, Arizona 33

#10 Clemson (3-0, 0-0) at #4 Florida State (3-0, 1-0)

This game will tell us a lot about both teams once it is over. For Clemson, they need to compete on the big stage, as the embarrassment of last year's Orange Bowl loss still sits heavily with the program. For Florida State, they can prove they are truly back and also exorcise some of the demons they have had when playing the Tigers. There will be playmakers all over the field for both teams. WR Sammy Watkins, who decimated Florida State last year, is back just in time for the Tigers, as he debuted last week against Furman. The Tigers other playmakers are back from last year, such as QB Tajh Boyd and RB Andre Ellington. The Seminoles finally played a real team last week, and while Wake Forest is not very good, it was still impressive to see the whooping Florida State put on them. Florida State's stars include QB E.J. Manuel, RBs Chris Thompson and James Wilder Jr., and WRs Kenny Shaw and Kelvin Benjamin. All of them have put up video game numbers through the first three games but those stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. If only Clemson had a defense they could be a Top 5 team with all of the offensive talent they have. I will probably regret this because Florida State has never been able to truly prove they are back, but I think they add Clemson to their list of beat downs.

Prediction: Florida State 49, Clemson 24

Vanderbilt (1-2, 0-1) at #5 Georgia (3-0, 1-0)

There was drama with the coaches in last year's game and that is the only thing that might make this game remotely interesting to watch, with all of the other great games going on in prime time. Vanderbilt is a little more competitive now, but Georgia is really looking ahead in their schedule as three of their next four games include Tennessee, South Carolina, and Florida.

Prediction: Georgia 34, Vanderbilt 23

#15 Kansas State (3-0, 0-0) at #6 Oklahoma (2-0, 0-0)

Kansas State was highly embarrassed last year when they took on Oklahoma at home and were beaten by 41 points. This is a statement game for them as they try to prove that they are on the level of the premiere team in the Big 12. Wildcats QB Collin Klein is the player to watch for K State as he does most of his work with his legs but has look much improved as a passer thus far this season. Oklahoma has their old dependable Landry Jones behind center, tossing it up to their highly talented receiver Kenny Stills. I think the Wildcats are far better prepared for this game than they were last year, and I am not entirely sold on the Sooners. This game will be a close one, but I am not bold enough to pick the upset.

Prediction: Oklahoma 31, Kansas State 28

Missouri (2-1, 0-1) at #7 South Carolina (3-0, 1-0)

Missouri goes on the road for the first time in the SEC as they take on South Carolina. The story of this game is both teams having their starting quarterbacks return from injury. For Missouri, James Franklin is back after missing last week's win against Arizona State, while for South Carolina Connor Shaw returns after sitting out the last two games. Marcus Lattimore has gotten off to a bit of slow start for the Gamecocks as his counterpart Kendial Lawrence for Missouri actually has better numbers through three games. Missouri was competitive with Georgia before a late collapse and I think they will be right there with South Carolina this Saturday. This is another case where I can't pick the upset though.

Prediction: South Carolina 26, Missouri 20

Maryland (2-1) at #8 West Virginia (2-0)

West Virginia saw their offense slowed last week, and by slowed I mean held under 60 for a change, as they put up 42 points against James Madison. The defense has to be licking their chops as they get to face Terps freshman QB Perry Hills. Mountaineers QB Geno Smith has been spectacular, completing 66 of his 75 passes in the first two games. Those numbers will look even more amazing once he is done with the Maryland defense.

Prediction: West Virginia 45, Maryland 14

Last Week: 9-1
Overall: 27-4

The Hail Mary - Week 2

Week 1 came and went with some expected results and some unbelievable results. Some people think they have it all figured out after Week 1, but the NFL is truly a week to week league, and I expect to see more shocking results this weekend. 

Sunday, September 16

Oakland (0-1) at Miami (1-0), Oakland favored by 2 1/2

Predictably, Ryan Tannehill was awful in his Dolphins debut and Miami carried over their poor play from the preseason to the regular season. Hopefully, Tannehill can show something against a pretty poor Oakland defense. The Raiders didn’t look much better against San Diego, as it becomes more and more obvious that Carson Palmer’s best years are well behind him. The Raiders have to hope that they get more out of Darren McFadden in the run game then they did in the opener. He had more catches than carries, and while it’s nice to have a running back that can catch, his main job is to gain yards on the ground.  I think this game will be ugly, and filled with field goals. 

Prediction: Oakland 15, Miami 12 



Minnesota (1-0) at Indianapolis (0-1), Minnesota favored by 1 1/2

Colts fans want to jump off a bridge after Andrew Luck struggled mightily in his first start and Peyton Manning was magnificent for the Broncos. Hopefully, before they jump they take a look at Manning’s numbers from his rookie year and realize that Luck has plenty of time to get better.  Some good news was that Donald Brown ran the ball pretty well, and if Luck can avoid turning the ball over, he might have a running game that can support him. For the Vikings, the story was Adrian Peterson, who scored two touchdowns in his return from his major knee injury. This could be a tough environment for Christian Ponder to play in, as the Colts fans will be jacked for their home opener. I expect Luck to play much better and earn his first NFL victory. 

Prediction: Indianapolis 21, Minnesota 20 



Baltimore (1-0) at Philadelphia (1-0), Philadelphia favored by 2 1/2

The calls for Nick Foles have started in Philadelphia after Mike Vick’s disastrous four interception game against the Browns. Vick has had a problem with staying healthy and avoiding turnovers for the last year. It won’t get any easier this weekend when he takes on the Ravens defense. He may also be without his second best wideout, Jeremy Maclin. For the Eagles to have a chance against the Ravens, Andy Reid is going to have to do something he doesn’t do often, commit to the run. He has one of the best running backs in the league in LeSean McCoy, he needs to start coaching like it. Joe Flacco was very impressive against Cincinnati and now everyone thinks he should be given boatloads of money from the Ravens. I’d like to see him play at an elite level for an entire season, and he will be tested by the Philly D. I didn’t like what I saw out of the Eagles last weekend, and I think while Vick will look better, he will have his problems against Baltimore. 

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Philadelphia 17 



Kansas City (0-1) at Buffalo (0-1), Buffalo favored by 3

The Bills new look defensive line did next to nothing in their blowout loss to the Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to look awful ever since getting his massive contract. If the Bills lose to the Chiefs here Bills fans tired of losing for 13 straight years will begin to massively freak out. The Bills also lost starting RB Fred Jackson for a month to an injury, but C.J. Spiller ran wild when he took over. The Chiefs have an overpaid quarterback of their own in Matt Cassel. The Chiefs defense looked surprisingly leaky in the opener, as it seems the last few years getting blown out at home in the opener is what the Chiefs do best.  One positive was the return of Jamaal Charles who ran well, until the Chiefs were getting blown out and had to abandon the run game. I don’t think the Bills are as terrible as they looked in Week 1, and I think that Mario Williams will get some pressure on Cassel, and help lead the Bills to a home win. 

Prediction: Buffalo 23, Kansas City 16 



Cleveland (0-1) at Cincinnati (0-1), Cincinnati favored by 7

Cleveland put up a fight against the Eagles but Brandon Weeden played like he was 17 instead of 29, throwing 4 interceptions and posting a quarterback rating of 5. How bad must Colt McCoy be that the Browns are willingly starting Weeden over him? Vegas wasn’t too impressed as they have the Bungles of all teams favored by a touchdown. They looked awful against Baltimore and looked like a typical Marvin Lewis team that can’t follow up a playoff year with any success the next season. However, they aren’t bad enough to lose to the Browns. 

Prediction: Cincinnati 17, Cleveland 14 



Arizona (1-0) at New England (1-0), New England favored by 13 1/2

Well my pick of Titans over Patriots ended up looking quite foolish. Sometimes there is a reason why everyone goes one way and you don’t go out on a limb. John Skelton was injured for Cardinals, so Kevin Kolb is back under center. He actually played pretty well in relief against Seattle, so maybe that will help his confidence, and carry him to a good performance against the Patriots. The Patriots defense looked rejuvenated with some of their newly drafted talent making an impact, such as Dont’a Hightower. Unless the Cardinals can find a way to get Larry Fitzgerald involved, they will have trouble keeping close  in this game. I am also surprised about how far Michael Floyd has started down on the depth chart. He looked NFL ready in college. 

Prediction: New England 35, Arizona 21 



Tampa Bay (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1), New York Giants favored by 7 1/2

The Buccaneers looked like a completely different team from 2011 in their win over the Panthers. Most different, was the play of the defense. I am still not sold on them being a majorly improved team, but I do think they will give the Giants trouble this weekend. The Giants continued their run of being a worthless regular season team, and I am sure they will somehow luck their way into the playoffs and then decide to care. 

Prediction: New York Giants 26, Tampa Bay 21 



New Orleans (0-1) at Carolina (0-1), New Orleans favored by 2 1/2

Both these teams had surprising losses in Week one. Neither team’s offense looked in sync either. The Saints did put up 30 points, but only 22 of that was by their offense, and Drew Brees completed less than 50% of his passes against the Redskins. It will be interesting to see if both Newton and Brees fare better this week going up against weak defenses. Perhaps the Saints are going to be adversely affected by having to be coached by the interim coach for the interim coach. I think the Saints will find their rhythm this week, stay ahead most of the game, and allow their running game’s presence to be felt. 

Prediction: New Orleans 33, Carolina 24 



Houston (1-0) at Jacksonville (0-1), Houston favored by 7 1/2

The Jags were a lot more competitive than I expected and should have won in Minnesota last weekend. Somehow they allowed the Vikings to get into field goal range and tie the game, despite their being just 21 seconds left when they got the ball. Blaine Gabbert played decent and looked better in the preseason too, so maybe he is improving. The Texans started slow against Miami before eventually pulling away. The Jaguars defense can keep them in any game, and I expect that to be enough to allow the Jags to not let Houston cover the 7 ½ point spread. 

Prediction: Houston 20, Jacksonville 13 



Dallas (1-0) at Seattle (0-1), Dallas favored by 3

Besides the 49ers and Redskins, the Cowboys were the most impressive team in Week 1. They started off slow, but turned it on late and handled the Giants on their celebration night. The most shocking development was the play of their number three receiver Kevin “Mom, more Ogletree please”. If he emerges like Miles Austin did a few years ago, the Cowboys already potent offense will turn into one of the leagues best. Bill Simmons ridiculous pick of Russell Wilson and the Seahawks for the Super Bowl, looked more absurd after Wilson struggled with Arizona. The Cowboys defense has looked much improved with their new corners and I expect them to give Wilson trouble on Sunday. Seattle is always a tough place to play though, so this win won’t be easy for the Cowboys. 

Prediction: Dallas 24, Seattle 23 



Washington (1-0) at St. Louis (0-1), Washington favored by 3

The Redskins shocked the world, their fans and hell maybe themselves as they defeated the Saints, putting up 40 points. The score made the game seem closer than it really was, as the Skins were in control for most of it. Robert Griffin III was outstanding and became the first rookie to ever win NFC Player of the Week honors in his first start. Now, they got from the underdog to the favorite as they host the Rams. Skins fans can attest that no matter how bad the Rams have been, they always give Washington trouble. The Rams played well at Detroit, especially the defense, and nearly came away with the upset. Hopefully, the Skins have stayed focused this week and not gotten too carried away over one win. This game will be close but to me the difference will be the Skins pass rush, as they will be in Bradford’s face all game. 

Prediction: Washington 28, St. Louis 21 

New York Jets (1-0) at Pittsburgh (0-1), Pittsburgh favored by 6

The Jets got some of their swagger back after destroying the Bills. The offense, which did nothing in the preseason, exploded for 48 points. We will probably get a more accurate state of the offense when they travel to Pittsburgh and take on the Steelers. The Steelers had all sorts of problems slowing down Peyton Manning, and the offense was inconsistent all night. I think we will have ourselves a good old defensive battle in this game, with Big Ben leading the Steelers down the field late for the game winning field goal. 

Prediction: Pittsburgh 19, New York Jets 16 

Tennessee (0-1) at San Diego (1-0), San Diego favored by 6 

The Chargers tried to Norv the game away against Oakland late but after Sebastian Janikowski had the worst onside kick in the history of football, they held on to the win. It was an ugly game, pretty much unwatchable but a win is a win. They now open up at home against the Titans who looked like the walking wounded after getting destroyed by New England. Jake Locker was injured but expects to start in this game. When the Chargers lose they usually beat themselves through turnovers and stupid penalties. I expect them to do enough of that to give the Titans hope, but still manage to get the victory. 

Prediction: San Diego 21, Tennessee 17  

Detroit (1-0) at San Francisco (1-0), San Francisco favored by 6 1/2 

It is the Handshake 2. Last season, the Niners handed the Lions their first loss of the season, but the result was overshadowed when Niners coach Jim Harbaugh and Lions coach Jim Schwartz got into a heated argument. Schwartz was bitter his team lost, and also bitter that Harbaugh gave him a manly handshake, as opposed to the dead fish handshakes Schwartz likes to give out. Both coaches have downplayed the incident leading up to Sunday’s game but you know that all eyes will be on the coaches’ pregame, and definitely for the postgame handshake. As for the game itself, the Niners are brimming with confidence after they handled the Packers with relative ease in Lambeau. The running game, specifically Frank Gore, looked tremendous. Alex Smith was poised and more than efficient, he was tremendous, and the defense picked right up where they left off from last season. The Lions looked less than impressive in defeating the Rams, especially Matthew Stafford, who finished with three picks. Lions WR Calvin Johnson has a sore foot so his effectiveness could be limited. The Lions don’t have much of a running game to begin with and multiply that with going up against the Niners ridiculously good run game and it is obvious Detroit will be one dimensional. Because of this, I think the Niners will roll to a relatively comfortable victory. 

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Detroit 13  

Monday, September 17

Denver (1-0) at Atlanta (1-0), Atlanta favored by 3 

It was amazing to watch Peyton Manning slice up the Steelers defense and play exactly like the guy we had seen all those years. You would think after not having any intense game action for a year he would be rusty, but that is why Manning is one of the greatest to ever play. He has his first road test as they travel to the Georgia Dome and take on the Falcons on Monday Night Football. Matt Ryan and the passing game were on point against Kansas City; it was the running game that left the Falcons with questions. Michael Turner looks old and slow, and it may not be long before Jacquizz Rodgers starts getting the bulk of the carries. I believed in Manning before  the season started and after watching him play last week, am more convinced than ever that the Broncos are on their way to an AFC West title. 

Prediction: Denver 27, Atlanta 24

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-9

Last Week Straight Up: 9-7