The Hail Mary - Super Bowl XLVI

Super Bowl XLVI: New York Giants (12-7) vs. New England Patriots (15-3) in Indianapolis, Indiana, New England favored by 3

Four years doesn't feel all that long ago all of the sudden. While not exactly parallel to their meeting in Super Bowl XLII, there are similarities with that game between the New England Patriots and New York Giants and the one that will take place Sunday. A decent amount of the coaches and players remain the same, and the basic storyline of the Giants being underdogs, and the hot team coming into the game. Vegas likes the Patriots, while most of the public is riding the Giants.

Looking at regular season stats for the Giants is a fruitless exercise. The team the Giants were for 14 regular season games, and who they have been the last month are completely different. The current Giants play punishing defense, and can run the ball with some effectiveness. For 14 games that was not the case. One constant has been the exceptional play of Eli Manning and his wide receivers. Manning followed up his strong regular season, with an even better showing in the playoffs. He has 8 TDs and just 1 INT. His favorite target this season came out of nowhere, Victor Cruz. Cruz led the team with 82 catches, 1,536 receiving yards and 9 TDs. His other threat, is Hakeem Nicks, who also topped 1,000 yards receiving and has been a monster in the playoffs. You also can't forget about Mario Manningham, one of the best third receivers in the league. His tight end Jake Ballard has been battling injuries, but did catch a game winning touchdown against the Patriots back in November. The Giants offensive line has done a pretty good job of protecting Manning this year, but were basically pulverized by the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. Defensively, the Giants were dealing with injuries to their secondary and defensive line all season. They are finally healthy, and they have been a terror the last month. In the playoffs they held the Packers to just 20 points, shut out the Falcons offense, and only gave up a couple big plays to Vernon Davis against the 49ers. You don't know who to even focus your energy on a defensive line that includes Osi Umeniyora, Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, and Chris Canty. Having linebacker Michael Boley back has also helped, while Chase Blackburn has also played well since returning to the team. Their defensive backfield was decimated by injuries to start the year but is now healthy and has been playing very well. The Patriots will have their work cut out for them trying to throw on Corey Webster, Kenny Phillips, Antrel Rolle, and Aaron Ross. Kicker Lawrence Tynes kicked the Giants to a Super Bowl for the second time in his career and his presence could be huge in what is expected to be a close game. It will be punter Steve Weatherford's job to try to keep the Patriots offense pinned deep in their own zone. Coach Tom Coughlin had people calling for his head when the Giants were on the verge of missing the playoffs for a third straight season. Now, he might have earned himself another contract extension.

The Patriots are trying to prove the old adage that defense wins championships to be a relic from another era. The Patriots have gotten to this point solely because of the firepower of their offense. It all starts with their QB Tom Brady who threw for 5,235 yards this season and 39 TDs. His favorite target remained Wes Welker, who had an incredible 122 catches. Some people think Welker just accumulates all those catches with little three yard catches but he averaged 12.9 yards a reception. The latest weapon to emerge for Brady was his TE, Gronk, or Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski was an absolute beast, catching 90 passes and 17 TDs, incredible numbers for a tight end. Others getting in on the act were WR Deion Branch, whose career once again became relevant once he ended up back in New England, and TE Aaron Hernandez. The Patriots aren't all that concerned with their running game but when they do run the ball, BenJarvus Green-Ellis is their lead back. The pressure is on the Patriots offensive line to perform at an excellent level in this game. They were pushed around by New York in the Super Bowl 4 years ago and also in their regular season matchup this year. They have a lot of talent on the offensive line, guys like Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Brian Waters, and Dan Connolly. The defense has been the weak point all season long. Their secondary has dealt with injuries and been torched, finishing 31st in the league in passing yards allowed per game. The run defense was a little better but not much, still finishing in the bottom half of the league. Things have gotten to the point where WR Julian Edelman has played crucial stretches at CB, including the end of the AFC Championship game. The Patriots most accomplished defensive players are DT Vince Wilfork and LB Jerod Mayo. Mark Anderson has had a largely unnoticed effective season but the Patriots definitely miss Andre Carter, who had been their most effective pass rusher, but is out for the season. The pressure will be on FS Patrick Chung, and cornerbacks Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty to somehow slow down Cruz and Nicks. The Patriots have a reliable kicker in Stephen Gostkowski, and one of the better punters in Zoltan Mesko. What needs to be said about their head coach Bill Belichick? He is one of the greatest coaches ever and what he has done in New England in the age of parity is astounding.

Everyone is in love with the New York Giants. It makes sense, they have won five straight games, beaten some of the best the NFL has to offer, and their quarterback Eli Manning is on a roll. However, seemingly lost in that shuffle is that their opponent, the New England Patriots are the hottest team in football. They have won ten straight games and done so by an average of 17.1 points per game. Their defense is flawed but that hasn’t mattered basically the entire season. In fact, their three losses could be tied directly to the offense. The offense was stymied in losses to the Giants and Steelers, and Tom Brady threw four interceptions in the loss to Buffalo.

The Giants did win the regular season meeting, but that is almost irrelevant. The teams that met almost three months ago will not be the same teams taking the field on Sunday. The Giants defense is certainly playing at a high level but I believe in Bill Belichick and his ability to find some way to contain that Giants pass rush. The key player to this game will be Wes Welker. If Brady can get into a rhythm of hitting Welker with those short throws that Welker turns in t0 10 yards a pop that will mitigate the Giants pass rush. A run game would be nice but the Giants have stymied good rushing teams like the Falcons and Niners in the playoffs, so its hard to imagine that the Law Firm will find much room. This game will be won or lost for the Patriots based on how much time and how well Brady plays. Brady doesn’t often have bad games back to back so I expect to see elite Brady on Sunday. It helps the Giants cause that Rob Gronkowski won’t be 100 percent, but the Patriots have other weapons and Gronk just being out there will draw plenty of attention. The Patriots defense has played better in recent weeks and I think if they can just stem the tide and not let the Giants get rolling, that will be enough. I still think Eli is prone to the mistake that can turn a game. He was bailed out twice in the 49ers game because 49ers players hit each other instead of catching his errant passes. This game should be a back and forth affair. I expect more scoring than we saw between them in Super Bowl XLII. I think the Giants will lead 23-18 late, when Brady will work his magic, hitting Welker for the game winning score, and giving their Patriots their fourth Super Bowl championship.

Prediction: New England 25, New York Giants 23

Last Week Straight Up: 0-2
Overall Straight Up: 166-100

Last Week Against the Spread: 1-1
Overall Against the Spread: 132-127-7