The Hail Mary - Week 11

We were all spoiled by last week's games as this week the schedule is utter poop again. There are only two games between teams with winning records this weekend. However, the good news is this is the last week of byes, so we have full schedules for the rest of the season. It's also Dallas Sunday for the Redskins but the fan base has been so beaten down that the questions seems to be not whether the Redskins will win or not, but whether they will score a touchdown.

Week 11 - Sunday, November 20

Jacksonville (3-6) at Cleveland (3-6), Jacksonville favored by 1

I am only talking about this game because I talk about every game. I look forward to whoever the poor announce team for this game is, trying to convince everyone that these two teams are playing good football, then watching one of the teams blow an extra point.

Prediction: Jacksonville 16, Cleveland 13

Carolina (2-7) at Detroit (6-3), Detroit favored by 7

Huge game for the Lions, because with the Packers coming to Detroit on Thanksiving, a loss here would leave them at 6-5 by next week and in complete free fall mode. The offense was dreadful last week, with QB Matthew Stafford throwing four interceptions and having one of the worst games of his career. Panthers QB Cam Newton had his first rookie like performance in a blowout lass against the Titans last week. I think he will get back to his regular form this week and look forward to watching Ndamukong Suh and him colliding at some point. I expect this game to be close but the Lions to get a much needed win.

Prediction: Detroit 28, Carolina 23

Tampa Bay (4-5) at Green Bay (9-0), Green Bay favored by 14 1/2

Tampa looked awful at home last week and seems to have regressed from last season. Or, they actually are having to play a tough schedule this season and are paying for it. I watched about two seconds of the Packers destruction of Minnesota, but I know that Aaron Rodgers continues to play out of his mind. I have learned my lesson, as long as the Packers have Rodgers, I will keep picking them to win, and to cover 2 touchdown spreads.

Prediction: Green Bay 35, Tampa Bay 17

Buffalo (5-4) at Miami (2-7), Miami favored by 2 1/2

Another team falling apart is the Bills. The Bills and Lions were nice stories to start the year, but the season is a marathon, not a sprint, and it seems that both are reverting to their more expected form. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been struggling for the past 6 games, and if Fred Jackson is held in check like he was by Dallas, the Bills have no offense. The Dolphins have won two straight and even won a home game last weekend. Unfortunately, they have put themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, but maybe they could still get Matt Barkley. However, if they keep winning, that may get to be impossible.

Prediction: Miami 20, Buffalo 17

Oakland (5-4) at Minnesota (2-7), Oakland favored by 1 1/2

Curious line in this game. The Vikings are better at home, and the Raiders are pretty up and down, but still, just a 1 1/2 point favorite? If I gambled for real, this game would be my biggest play. Michael Bush is a more than capable fill in for Darren McFadden, and Carson Palmer seemed to shake off the rust last week at San Diego. Vikings QB Christian Ponder is still learning, so it will be on Adrian Peterson's shoulders to have a big game if the Vikings hope to spring the upset.

Prediction: Oakland 28, Minnesota 20

Dallas (5-4) at Washington (3-6), Dallas favored by 7 1/2

With two straight wins the Cowboys are back in the discussion for the NFC East. With five straight losses the Redskins are in the discussion for a Top 5 draft pick. The Redskins went back to Rex Grossman after it was becoming apparent that they had somehow found another quarterback that was actually worse than Rex in John Beck. Rex was able to move the offense against Miami, but then remembered that he is garbage and threw a terrible interception at the goal line. Leonard Hankerson made his presence known in that game, so of course he hurt himself and is now out for the season. Hopefully, RB Roy Helu get's the start in this game, because aside from a couple quarters against St. Louis Ryan Torain has done nothing. I am positive we will see Tony Romo hit Dez Bryant for a long touchdown at some point, and expect Jason Witten to kill the Redskins linebackers. DeMarco Murray and the returning Felix Jones will also have good games. All of that being said, I think the Redskins will score not one, but two touchdowns!!! Sadly, while it will be enough to cover the spread, it won't be enough to win the game.

Prediction: Dallas 24, Washington 17

Cincinnati (6-3) at Baltimore (6-3), Baltimore favored by 7

Cincinnati gave the Steelers a battle but showed that they are still way too young and inexperienced to compete with the best. The Ravens did what they have done just about all season, follow up a huge win, with an embarrassing loss. LB Ray Lewis will probably miss his first game since 2007, but the Ravens are talented enough on defense where that won't be too much of a loss. The Bengals are hoping that A.J. Green can play, as they really missed him in the latter stages of the Steelers game. The Bengals running game has been stagnant as of late, and I don't expect the Ravens to let Cedric Benson get 100 yards like Marshawn Lynch did last weekend. This is another game for the Bengals where they will come close but just short of a win.

Prediction: Baltimore 20, Cincinnati 14

Seattle (3-6) at St. Louis (2-7), St. Louis favored by 2

The Seahawks have a terrible record but their wins against 6-3 Baltimore, and 6-3 New York Giants are impressive. They might have the building blocks to be a contender next season. The Rams squeaked out a win in Cleveland, so Sam Bradford will be looking for his first home win of the season. The Seahawks are generally an awful road team, so the Rams are the pick here.

Prediction: St. Louis 17, Seattle 14

Arizona (3-6) at San Francisco (8-1), San Francisco favored by 9 1/2

The Niners were in the spotlight last weekend and responded, beating the Giants in a great game. I wasn't surprised that San Francisco won, but I was surprised that they were able to win without an effective running game. It seemed the formula to beat the 49ers was stop the running game and make Alex Smith beat you. But Smith made plays when he needed to and while he is still mediocre, has improved vastly from when he was a liability. Defensively, the 49ers have one of the best defenses, if not the best defense in the league. They would have to play an A game to beat Green Bay, but their defense makes me believe that they definitely can compete with the Packers. Oh, about this game against Arizona this weekend? The Cardinals have won two straight, but those wins come against sorry teams. This weekend, John Skelton remembers that he isn't very good.

Prediction: San Francisco 27, Arizona 17

Tennessee (5-4) at Atlanta (5-4), Atlanta favored by 6

By record this is the second best game of the weekend, but only 4 people in the country are probably talking about it. Mike Smith was getting killed all week for his questionable decision to go for it on 4th and inches in overtime at his own 29. The stat geeks have all their numbers of why it was a good idea, but stats don't overrule common sense. Have some faith in your defense, and don't worry about what happened in a game with different plays last year or two years ago. The Titans played great defensively last weekend against Carolina, and should have some swagger going into this game. I expect this one to go back and forth and come down to who has the ball last. Unfortunately for the Titans it will be Matty Ice that leads the Falcons to a game winning drive.

Prediction: Atlanta 28, Tennessee 24

San Diego (4-5) at Chicago (6-3), Chicago favored by 3 1/2

Do people finally believe me that the Chargers suck? I wanted to pick Oakland to beat them last weekend but caved to pressure from all the dumdums who insisted the Chargers were actually good. Philip Rivers isn't playing well this season, they don't have any sort of identity on offense and add terrible coaching to that, and you have a 4-5 team. Maybe this is finally the year that Norv Turner get's the axe. Has there ever been a coach as bad as him that has gotten such long leashes and as many chances? The Bears are on fire right now, winners of four straight. The offense is clicking, especially the running game, the offensive line is coming together, and the defense is playing outstanding. Not to mention their special teams with Devin Hester is dangerous as always. It will be fun watching Rivers and Jay Cutler duel again. They never liked each other when Cutler was at Denver, so there could be some back and forth in this game.

Prediction: Chicago 28, San Diego 21

Philadelphia (3-6) at New York Giants (6-3), New York Giants favored by 4 1/2

I kept believing the Eagles were too talented to be as bad as their record indicated and eventually would turn on the burners. But after losing at home to Arizona and John Skelton, I accept that my Super Bowl pick may only win six games this season. They are the second worst coached team in the league and for as much good as Andy Reid has done in Philadelphia I believe it is time for a new voice. The Eagles are also more proof that just putting together a bunch of players from free agency hardly ever works. I should have known that after watching the Redskins try it for years, but I thought the Eagles were different because they were actually good before making all the signings this past off-season. As for the Giants, I don't agree that Eli Manning is elite but he did make some very impressive throws against the 49ers. It will be fitting this Sunday when the most hyped team in the league has the final nail put in their coffin on a national stage.

Prediction: New York Giants 29, Philadelphia 21

Monday, November 21

Kansas City (4-5) at New England (6-3), New England favored by 14 1/2

The Chiefs get to stink up prime time for the next two weeks. They wouldn't have been all that appealing to watch with Matt Cassel, and now with him out and Tyler Palko starting, it will be downright ugly for them against the Patriots this Monday night and the Steelers next Sunday night. The Patriots took back control of the AFC East with an impressive win over the Jets and showed that while they aren't near what they were in their dynasty days, they still won't lose three straight games as long as Bill Belichick is coach. I expect the offense to have another strong game and Palko to struggle mightily for the Chiefs.

Prediction: New England 34, Kansas City 10

Last Week Straight Up: 7-9
Overall Straight Up: 90-56

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-9
Overall Against the Spread: 71-72-3