The Hail Mary - Super Bowl XLV

Super Bowl XLV: Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) vs.
Green Bay Packers (13-6), Green Bay favored by 2 1/2

Two of the most storied franchises in NFL history collide in Dallas on Super Bowl Sunday. The Pittsburgh Steelers are making their eighth Super Bowl appearance and looking to add to their NFL record with a seventh Super Bowl win. The Packers are in their fifth Super Bowl, and trying to bring the Lombardi trophy home to where their fans feel it rightly belongs.

The Packers had the ninth best offense in the NFL this season, which actually was a step below what people expected. They were hurt by becoming a one dimensional team, when RB Ryan Grant was lost for the season on opening weekend. Most teams would have faltered, especially with the other injuries the Packers offense faced, but QB Aaron Rodgers proved to a world stage why the Packers were willing to let Brett Favre fade away a few years ago. Rodgers had an outstanding regular season, and then upped his game in the playoffs. It helps that he has an amazing amount of weapons, including WRs Donald Drive, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones. RB James Starks has emerged in the playoffs, and RB John Kuhn has proven to be a threat not only running, but catching passes out of the backfield. The Packers offensive line isn't outstanding but good enough and are certainly helped by Rodgers ability to avoid pressure, and make plays on the run. However, defense is what has gotten the Packers to this game. They finished second in the league, allowing just 15 points per game. They were led by what should have been the Defensive Player of the Year, LB Clay Matthews. They have a beast on the defensive line, in second year man BJ Raji, and have tremendous CBs in Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields. Their coach, Mike McCarthy can make some questionable in-game decisions, but he has to be given credit for his stewardship of the team this season and their ability to overcome injuries.
The Steeelers have pretty much always been built on a running attack and suffocating defense. That is pretty much the story of this year's team. QB Ben Roethlisberger continues to prove that he is an elite quarterback, capable of making something out of nothing, and being that dreaded word some people want to pretend doesn't exist, clutch. He is supported by RB Rashard Mendenhall, who gets unfairly criticized in my view. Some, cough Peter King, claimed that Mendenhall isn't a big time back. After King said that, Mendenhall tore apart the Jets and basically single handedly put the Steelers in control of that game. The Steelers passing game isn't flashy but is effective. Roethlisberger has old reliable Hines Ward, emerging star Mike Wallace, and then some really new faces in rookies Emmanuel Sanders, and the man who had made two huge catches in the playoffs, Antonio Brown. Heath Miller continues to be both a reliable blocker and pass catching tight end. The Steelers offensive line is what it is. Seen by many as the weakness of the team, they sometimes don't look so good because of Roethlisberger's penchant for extending the play and taking sacks. The Steelers defense allowed 14.5 points per game, fewest in the league. They are virtually impossible to run against, giving up just 62.8 yards per game, which is 28 yards fewer per game then second place Chicago. Brett Keisel and his beard man the defensive line, their linebacking corps is ridiculous with James Harrison, James Farrior and LaMarr Woodley. CB Ike Taylor, S Ryan Clark and Defensive Player of the Year, S Troy Polomalu make big plays and big hits. Mike Tomlin has proved to be a tremendous hire by the Rooney's. He seems to have the right mix of fire and the ability to relate to his players.
These teams almost couldn't be more evenly matched. Both are good offensively, amazing defensively, and adequate in the special teams game. This will not be a repeat of their regular season game from a year ago, where both quarterbacks torched the opposing defenses. I expect defense to rule the day for the most part and I believe a defensive player will be the MVP. I think the Steelers are just a little bit better than the Packers. The biggest edge in this game will come down to the fact that the Packers have no prayer of running the ball effectively. The Packers can barely run the ball against a terrible defense, match them up against the Steelers, and I would be surprised if they have a back go over 40 yards. Rodgers will be able to make some plays in the passing game, but it will be the Steelers effectiveness at both running and passing that will make the difference. Packers fans have to hope that their defense creates turnovers, or that their special teams can break something. If I were the Packers, I would give serious thought to having Charles Woodson return a punt or two. I think this game will be close the entire sixty minutes, maybe a little sloppy at first, then settle into a nice groove. I think the Steelers will go up 21-10, late in the fourth and then hold off Rodgers and the Pack for a 21-17 win. As nauseating as it is to think about, the Steelers will have their seventh Super Bowl trophy, and the MVP will be Troy Polomalu.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 21, Green Bay 17

Last Week Against the Spread: 1-1
Overall Against the Spread: 77-76-5

Last Week Straight Up: 2-0
Overall Straight Up: 88-68