The Hail Mary - Week 5

There are more storylines than you can shake a stick at in Monday night's game at the New Meadowlands between the New York Jets and the Minnesota Vikings. It was already intriguing enough with it being the return of Brett Favre to New York, but it got even more interesting with the Vikings acquisition of WR Randy Moss. Moss is back where it all started, in Minnesota and I am going to have to dust off my old Vikings 84 jersey.

Week 5 - Sunday, October 10

Jacksonville (2-2) at Buffalo (0-4), Line is EVEN

My gut was telling me that Jacksonville would be competitive with the Colts but I chose not to listen. The Jaguars are seemingly schizophrenic but I think the bad Jags will show up in Buffalo. Buffalo is not nearly as hard a place to win at as it used to be, but for a team like Jacksonville, I can see the elements causing some issues. Besides, the Bills have to win sometime don't they?

Prediction: Buffalo 24, Jacksonville 17

Tampa Bay (2-1) at Cincinnati (2-2), Cincinnati favored by 6 1/2

Cincinnati will be happy to be home again, as they had to go on the road in three of their first four games. It remains to be seen if Tampa can build on their 2-0 start or if they will revert back to the levels of losing that were expected of them. Bengals QB Carson Palmer finally showed something last week and it allowed WR Terrell Owens to have a break out game. Bengals get back on the winning track but it will be close.

Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Tampa Bay 14

Atlanta (3-1) at Cleveland (1-3), Atlanta favored by 3

Another week where Vegas seems to be giving the Browns a lot of respect. RB Peyton Hillis has been a beast for the Browns and carried them on his back the last two weeks. The Falcons were lucky to escape with a win against my hapless Niners. Atlanta is a team I like this year, and I will chalk up their poor performance against the Niners as a hangover from their huge win against the Saints.

Prediction: Atlanta 23, Cleveland 17

St. Louis (2-2) at Detroit (0-4), Detroit favored by 3

When was the last time the Lions were favored in a game? The Rams have won two straight and are actually tied for first in the NFC West. It might turn out that the Redskins loss to the Rams won't look so bad come the end of the year. Rams QB Sam Bradford is definitely the real deal, it is too bad the Lions young gun Matthew Stafford will miss this game with an injury. I think the Rams are improving but until they show they can win on the road, I have to pick against them.

Prediction: Detroit 27, St. Louis 23

Kansas City (3-0) at Indianapolis (2-2), Indianapolis favored by 8

The Chiefs are the league's last undefeated team? Really? And even with that, they are 8 point underdogs to a team that is just .500? Just shows how weird, wild and wacky the season has been through a month. The Colts took a major step back with their loss at Jacksonville but maybe it's more a problem they have of winning on the road. I think the Chiefs will be a playoff team this year, so I expect them to cover this spread but suffer their first loss in the process.

Prediction: Indianapolis 21, Kansas City 14

Green Bay (3-1) at Washington (2-2), Green Bay favored by 2 1/2

This is the second best game of the weekend. You could basically flip a coin to try to pick this game. I still consider QB Aaron Rodgers to be elite and remain upset that the 49ers passed on him, but his stats aren't all that impressive so far this season. 8 TDs to 5 INTs, and he is only averaging about 7 yards a pass. The Skins are coming off an emotional win at Philadelphia so the chance for a let down is there. It is also now the Ryan Torain show, as Clinton Portis will be out for at least a month. The Skins showed last week that they can shut down a team with plenty of weapons, although Rodgers is much greater than Kolb. The Skins offense will have to get on track, and QB Donovan McNabb will have to be smart with the ball. The Packers have a ball hawking defense and always seem to find a way to force turnovers. This will be a very competitive game, that will come down to Mason Crosby hitting a game winning field goal, breaking all of the Skins fans hearts.

Prediction: Green Bay 24, Washington 21

Chicago (3-1) at Carolina (0-4), Chicago favored by 2 1/2

Has a team ever gone from looking like an elite team to being exposed as a fluke fraud as quickly as the Bears did last week against the Giants? There is no way this team is doing anything this year with that offensive line. The Panthers played the Saints well in New Orleans but their last drive was an abomination in clock management. I thought maybe Les Miles had started coaching them. QB Jimmy Clausen won't have Steve Smith so hopefully the Panthers finally figure out they are a running team and should just pound the ball with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. However, with lame duck coach John Fox still running things, I don't expect that to happen. Even without Cutler, the Bears win.

Prediction: Chicago 14, Carolina 13

Denver (2-2) at Baltimore (3-1), Baltimore favored by 7

Denver's win at Tennessee really caught me off guard. Also catching me off guard is that Kyle Orton is one of the best QB's in the so far this year, and WR Brandon Lloyd is one of the best receivers. The Ravens secondary, which was supposed to be their undoing, has been top notch, and will get a stern test from the Broncos. Denver can't run the ball at all and will likely be without RB Knowshon Moreno for a third straight week. I don't think you can beat the Ravens without a running game, but you can definitely give them a run for their money.

Prediction: Baltimore 19, Denver 15

New York Giants (2-2) at Houston (3-1), Houston favored by 3

The Giants got a much needed win last weekend but the offense still seems out of sorts and turnover prone. Houston has the weapons on offense to take advantage of those mistakes, even if WR Andre Johnson misses a second straight game. RB Arian Foster is proving that he is legit and former Giant RB Derrick Ward may make an impression on his old team.

Prediction: Houston 30, New York Giants 20

New Orleans (3-1) at Arizona (2-2), New Orleans favored by 7

Undrafted rookie free agent QB Max Hall out of BYU makes his first career NFL start. From a potential Hall of Famer in Kurt Warner to Hall in just one season, quite the drop for the Cardinals. The Saints have had nothing but close games this season but if they can't beat the daylights out of a crap team with a raw QB, then they have a worse Super Bowl hangover than I thought.

Prediction: New Orleans 35, Arizona 17

Tennessee (2-2) at Dallas (1-2), Dallas favored by 6 1/2

All it took was one Cowboy win for all their bandwagon fans to start making noise again. Some people think Dallas is going to roll the Titans. The Titans loss at home to Denver was surprising but I still think they are capable of being a good team. The Titans played very well at New York two weeks ago and I expect them to put forth a tough effort at Dallas. RB Chris Johnson has been quiet for too long, hopefully he finally breaks one this weekend. When it comes down to it though, Romo > Young.

Prediction: Dallas 26, Tennessee 20

San Diego (2-2) at Oakland (1-3), San Diego favored by 6

This is a pick I may want to have back on Monday morning but the Chargers have been an awful road team thus far. The Raiders hung around with Houston, and I think they can do the same with the Chargers.

Prediction: San Diego 27, Oakland 23

Philadelphia (2-2) at San Francisco (0-4), San Francisco favored by 3 1/2

Vegas just can't quit the Niners it seems. The Niners played far better than I expected in Atlanta and would have won the game if dumb ass CB Nate Clements had either secured the ball on his interception or simply gone down and allowed the Niners to attempt to bleed the clock. It was a brutal loss. With all that being said the Niners still just sit two games out in the putrid NFC West. If they can't win this game at home, against an Eagles team with the underwhelming Kevin Kolb at QB and possibly without RB LaSean McCoy, then the Niners may go 0-16. If the Niners and Smith bring the same effort they brought against the Saints at home, a much needed win will finally come.

Prediction: San Francisco 20, Philadelphia 17

Monday, October 11

Minnesota (1-2) at New York Jets (3-1), New York Jets favored by 4

As I touched on above this is the game of the week in the NFL. Randy Moss will be playing in his second straight Monday night, and something tells me he won't be held catchless in this one. Hopefully, Jets CB Darrelle Revis will man up and stop hiding behind injury. He may decide to sit this one out though, especially after Moss embarrassed him in New York three weeks ago. I think the addition of Moss will bring a renewed energy to the Vikings offense and more importantly to QB Brett Favre. For the Vikings to win it will be up to the offensive line. The running game will have to be productive and Favre can't get hit like has been in recent weeks. It seems like a lot, but I think the Vikings defense can fluster QB Mark Sanchez, and finally force him into some turnovers. The Vikings front four can definitely slow down Jets RBs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson. The Vikings will get a much needed win as they start this brutal stretch of their schedule.

Prediction: Minnesota 19, New York Jets 16

Last Week Straight Up: 7-7
Overall Straight Up: 34-28

Last Week Against the Spread: 5-9
Overall Against the Spread: 32-28-2