The Hail Mary - Super Bowl XLIV

Super Bowl XLIV: New Orleans Saints (15-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (16-2), Indianapolis favored by 5

The two best teams in the NFL all season long meet in Super Bowl XLIV to determine the greatest team in the NFL this year. These two were both 13-0 at one point and both dreaming of perfection. While those dreams didn't come true, a far greater achievement awaits one of these teams on Sunday night.

The Colts and Saints are similar in makeup. Both are led by fantastic QBs, the Colts by 4-time NFL MVP Peyton Manning and the Saints by Drew Brees. They have multiple options at the running back position. The Colts run the ball, albeit not well, with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. The Saints have Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell (who has disappeared in the playoffs), and Reggie Bush. Both Manning and Brees have a plethora of options at WR and TE. Manning has Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Dallas Clark. Brees has Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meacham, Devery Henderson, and Jeremy Shockey. Offensively, I would call it a wash between the two teams.

Where the difference will come in this game is on the defensive side of the ball. The Indianapolis Colts are simply better than the Saints. The big storyline heading into Super Bowl XLIV is the status of DE Dwight Freeney for the Colts. I expect that Freeney will play but will see limited action. However, I don't think him being limited will hurt the Colts enough for it to matter. The Colts have tremendous team speed on defense, which will neutralize the effectiveness of the Saints playmakers. The Saints defense is mostly smoke and mirrors. They really aren't that good, where they have been successful has been forcing teams into turnovers. Peyton Manning and the Colts won't fumble the ball six times like Minnesota did, and Manning won't throw mind-numbingly dumb passes like Brett Favre did. The Saints forced 5 Vikings turnovers and still barely won the game. They were completely dominated on their home-field in every statistical measure besides turnovers. Now I know you can't necessarily base one game on another but the Saints strength of causing turnovers figures to be a non-factor in the Super Bowl. When their defense isn't causing turnovers the Saints are usually getting shredded on the ground and through the air. The Colts haven't had a running back go over 100 yards this season so that doesn't figure to be an issue, but Manning had little trouble with a much better Jets defense, so he could put up eye popping numbers in this game.

The other strength of the Saints defense is getting to the quarterback. They didn't record a single sack on Favre in the NFC Championship but anyone watching that game knew Favre got the crap beat out of him. Once again though, their strength is likely to be nullified by Manning. Manning gets rid of the ball so fast that teams never get to hit him. Even if they do have a chance, Manning will usually fall to the ground, rather than allow himself to be pummeled. The Saints won't rattle Manning and because of this their defenses true colors will be shown.

Sometimes you just have to look at a matchup, and the Colts are a terrible matchup for the Saints. I think the Saints will be able to hang in this game because of Drew Brees and the offense, but their defense will not be able to get stops when needed. I like the Colts to win their second Super Bowl in four seasons, and Manning to win his second Super Bowl MVP in four seasons.

Prediction: Indianapolis 34, New Orleans 24

Last Week Against the Spread: 2-0
Overall Against the Spread: 133-129-4

Last Week Straight Up: 1-1
Overall Straight Up: 169-96