The Hail Mary - Week 4

The best game of Week 4 features the New Kids on the Block (The Baltimore Ravens) versus the Old Kids on the Block (The New England Patriots). Without question the Baltimore Ravens have been the best team in football through the first three weeks. Three weeks with an offense scoring over 30 points in each of those games has me believing that the Ravens finally have a potent offense to complement one of the best defenses in the game. Last weekend, the Patriots fought off another up and comer, the Atlanta Falcons, will they do it two weeks in a row?

Games That I Will Be Watching

Baltimore (3-0) at New England (2-1), New England favored by 1 1/2

Last Sunday, the New England Patriots quietly laid to rest all the stories that had begun popping up about their demise. The defense shut down what had been a potent Falcons offense, and the offense found a running game behind veteran RB Fred Taylor. However, the defense that the Patriots face this Sunday is much better than the Falcons. The Ravens defense had gotten off to a slow start to begin the season, but looked like the great defense we have been used to seeing against the Cleveland Browns. Obviously, the Patriots will give them a much greater taste but I really like what I see from the Ravens. They have Super Bowl contender written all over them.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, New England 17

Tampa Bay (0-3) at Washington (1-2), Washington favored by 7

I don't know why Vegas keeps making the Skins favored by so much. They have done nothing to make anyone think they can beat any team, much less by a touchdown. I think FedEx Field might get burned to the ground if the Skins lose this one. Nothing would shock me at this point, but I think the Skins can play terrible and still beat a really bad Buccaneers team.

Prediction: Washington 20, Tampa Bay 14

Dallas (2-1) at Denver (3-0), Dallas favored by 3

No one, save for Omar and Bill Simmons, really believes that the Broncos are as good as their 3-0 record indicates. However, the defense does look much improved, only giving up 16 points in three games. The Cowboys are hoping to have RB Marion Barber back for this one, or third string RB Tashard Choice will get the start. The Cowboys have rushed for over 200 yards in back to back games. I think that streak stops, but I think Tony Romo will make up for it. Broncos give up more in this game, than their previous three games combined.

Prediction: Dallas 24, Denver 14

San Diego (2-1) at Pittsburgh (1-2), Pittsburgh favored by 6 1/2

The line seems a bit high for this game. The Steelers have been unable to close and could easily be 3-0. The Chargers are about where people expected them, and they have been admirably fighting the injury bug on their team. As I predicted the Steelers have really missed S Troy Polamalu, and have forced no turnovers in either game without him. If this were a day game, I might like the Chargers, but the night time atmosphere, not to mention the cold, will be in the Steelers favor.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 23, San Diego 20

Green Bay (2-1) at Minnesota (3-0), Minnesota favored by 3 1/2

From a storyline perspective this is the game of the weekend. Vikings QB Brett Favre is facing the Green Bay Packers for the first time in his career. I am excited to see Favre face the Packers, but am really looking forward to his return to Lambeau. This game has the potential to be a shoot out, which means we will probably see a low scoring game. These two are very evenly matched and the atmosphere will be playoff like. This is a tough one to call but I will go with the undefeated home team.

Prediction: Minnesota 28, Green Bay 27

Rest of Week 4

Tennessee (0-3) at Jacksonville (1-2), Tennessee favored by 3

The Titans have one last chance to save their season. If they lose this one to go to 0-4, they might as well bench Kerry Collins and give Vince Young another shot. Jacksonville looked halfway decent against a terrible Texans defense, but they are still a bad team.

Prediction: Tennessee 20, Jacksonville 16

Oakland (1-2) at Houston (1-2), Houston favored by 9

The Texans are still searching for their first home win after suffering surprising home losses to both the Jets and Jaguars. The Raiders have by far the worst starting quarterback in the league, JaMarcus Russell. The fact that I don't think the Texans can cover a 9 point spread at home, tells you what I think of them.

Prediction: Houston 27, Oakland 20

Detroit (1-2) at Chicago (2-1), Chicago favored by 10

Detroit is not nearly as bad as people think. I am not saying they will make the playoffs or anything, but they can definitely play the Bears close. Oh and Matt Forte, get your head out of your ass!

Prediction: Chicago 24, Detroit 15

Cincinnati (2-1) at Cleveland (0-3), Cincinnati favored by 6

My Bengals making the playoffs prediction is looking better and better each week.

Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Cleveland 15

Seattle (1-2) at Indianapolis (3-0), Indianapolis favored by 10 1/2

If Dwight Freeney were healthy for the Colts then I could believe they could cover a 10 1/2 point spread. I don't think QB Seneca Wallace is as bad as some think. However, he isn't really good enough to take the Seahawks anywhere besides close but no cigar.

Prediction: Indianapolis 27, Seattle 21

New York Giants (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3), New York Giants favored by 9

This is quite the mismatch.

Prediction: New York Giants 27, Kansas City 9

New York Jets (3-0) at New Orleans (3-0), New Orleans favored by 7

Really surprised to see the Saints favored by 7. I am not printing playoff tickets for the Jets just yet but their 3-0 start has impressed me. I think the Jets have one of the better defenses in the NFL, and they will slow the Saints offense. However, I think Saints Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams is salivating over teeing off on a rookie quarterback.

Prediction: New Orleans 26, New York Jets 23

Buffalo (1-2) at Miami (0-3), Buffalo favored by 2

Vegas obviously doesn't think much of Chad Henne, making the Bills the favorites in Miami. It will be the start of a new era for the defenses. It may mean no playoffs for this season, but at least the Dolphins will get to see what Henne has to offer. I like the Dolphins to show some pride and get their first win of the season.

Prediction: Miami 20, Buffalo 13

St. Louis (0-3) at San Francisco (2-1), San Francisco favored by 9 1/2

The 49ers have another chance to show the maturation they have gone through since Mike Singletary took over the team. If they can come back from a tough loss to the Vikings and take care of business against a bad Rams team, it will show great mental toughness. This team is just like their coach, and I have no worries, including without RB Frank Gore, about how the Niners will respond.

Prediction: San Francisco 28, St. Louis 12

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-9
Overall Against the Spread: 31-17

Last Week Straight Up: 8-8
Overall Straight Up: 30-18