2009 NBA Finals - #1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #3 Orlando Magic

Players to Watch - Orlando Magic: What makes the Orlando Magic so dangerous is their dominance inside with C Dwight Howard and their ability to hit the three with guys like PG Rafer Alston, potentially PG Jameer Nelson, SG Courtney Lee, SF Hedo Turkoglu, and PF Rashard Lewis. SG J.J Redick is also a threat, but considering he only played 10 minutes in the Eastern Conference Finals, he figures to not be much of a factor. Howard is dominant because of his size, not because of his basketball acumen. He still has a ways to go as far as developing actual post moves and having the type of game that Hakeem Olajuwon had. However, that doesn't discount his ability to take over games and be a force inside. Lee has been the biggest surprise of last year's draft. The rookie shows no fear taking big shots, is a good defender, and a great shooter. Turkoglu and Lewis present matchup problems for just about every team in the league. They can both drive to the hoop, but are at their most dangerous when left open behind the three point line. If those two are both on fire the Magic are unbeatable. Alston was a smart pick up by Orlando after Nelson went down. He can be turnover prone and shoots poorly at times but he steadied the ship for Orlando. It is believed that Nelson will return for the Finals after missing the past 4 months. A healthy Nelson had blossomed into an All-Star this year. A healthy Nelson can facilitate, hit threes and be a factor. Nelson was the Magic's leading scorer in their two wins over LA this season. It remains to be seen how effective a rusty Nelson will be. SG Mickael Pietrus is another dangerous weapon for Orlando. His shooting percentages have gone way up in the playoffs, as he hit 50% of his shots against the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. C Marcin Gortat is an adequate backup for Howard. Of course there is a drop off from Howard to Gortat but Gortat moves well, shoots well, and can be a force on the defensive end.

Players to Watch - Los Angeles Lakers: SG Kobe Bryant is the reason the Lakers are in the NBA Finals. People tend to think the Lakers are this massively talented team but really its Bryant, FC Pau Gasol, and when he isn't on a sugar low PF Lamar Odom. Gasol is a very talented offensive player, who is one of the best big man at catching and shooting, instead of putting the ball on the floor and leaving himself open to being stripped. However, Gasol is soft on the defensive end. Odom can be a great scoring and rebounding lift off the bench when he plays interested. Other times he just takes up space. PG Derek Fisher is old, a defensive liability, and a spotty shooter at best at this point in his career. Some of his shots in the playoffs have not just been misses but Musson like (inside joke) in their awfulness. SG Shannon Brown has been a pleasant surprise since being picked up in a trade with the Charlotte Bobcats. He couldn't crack the Bobcats sorry rotation but has seen quality minutes with the Lakers. He did struggle against the Nuggets and will need to up his game against Orlando. PG Jordan Farmar saw his minutes decrease drastically during the playoffs. He barely played against the Jazz, saw decent time against the Rockets, and then saw limited time against the Nuggets. He plays alright defense, but doesn't provide much on offense. SFs Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza can be hit or miss, although Ariza has been fantastic in the playoffs. He couldn't crack Orlando's rotation but came up with some huge steals against the Nuggets and is shooting a tremendous 50% from three in the playoffs. Walton brings defense, and the occasional offense. I almost forgot C Andrew Bynum. He was seen as the missing link last year for the Lakers when he missed the playoffs due to injury. He got injured again this season and has been largely ineffective since returning. He has been a foul machine, played tentative, and added almost nothing. I would say the Lakers need him to step up but I don't expect him to. He can at least match up with Howard size wise.

Matchups: The Lakers trio of PGs, Fisher, Brown, and Farmar will match up with the Magic's PGs Alston, Nelson, and Anthony Johnson. The Magic have the edge but only slightly. Fisher will have some trouble guarding Alston but the Lakers have already played better PGs in Deron Williams and Chauncey Billups. Pietrus took on LeBron James in the Eastern Conference Finals and will get to guard Kobe in the NBA Finals. Pietrus is a very physical defender, James was able to dominate Pietrus with his size, something that Kobe can't do.The Rockets had Shane Battier who played very physical defense against Kobe, Pietrus can cause Bryant those sorts of problems, although he is not near the defender that Battier is. However, it is Kobe Bryant we are talking about, of course the Lakers have the advantage. The Lakers will have to be on constant lock down mode with Courtney Lee. Bryant will probably guard Lee some, along with Brown and maybe Vujacic. I think Lee could have a really good series. I think if Kobe is on him the Lakers will be alright, but if they rely on Brown or Vujacic then Lee will have a field day. The Magic killed the Cavaliers with Turkoglu and Lewis. The Lakers match up very well with those two. Ariza can definitely guard Hedo, while Lamar and Gasol can handle Lewis if need be. I am not saying that Lewis and Turkoglu will be completely ineffective but I guarantee they won't dominate the way they did in the Conference Finals. Gasol and Bynum will be responsible for Howard and Gortat. I expect Howard to have a tremendous series, mostly because the Lakers are soft inside. However, Howard can score his and the Lakers can still win. LeBron dominated Orlando but since no one else stepped up, the Cavs were cooked. The most important matchups to watch are the Ariza, Odom, Gasol vs. Turkoglu and Lewis battles. If the Lakers can win that matchup, they win the series.

Prediction: The Magic took both regular season meetings. If you think that means anything look back to the 2007 NBA Finals. The Cavaliers had beaten the San Antonio Spurs in both their meetings, then got swept. If the Lakers win Game 1 tonight this series is over. Phil Jackson coached teams are 43-0 in series' in which they have won Game 1. That is an astounding stat. That is exactly what will happen tonight. The Lakers will take Game 1 at home, the Magic will then even the series in Game 2. The series will be 1-1 and with the Magic having three straight games at home (the 2-3-2 format sucks) people will be on the Magic bandwagon. Kobe will take over Game 3 in Orlando and do what LeFraud couldn't, win in Orlando. The Magic will even the series with an inspired performance in Game 4. The Lakers will persevere in Game 5 and like they have done all season with their backs against the wall they will prevail. Then Kobe in front of all his LA fans will bring the Lakers their first title since 2002, and will get the unwarranted monkey off his back about not being able to win a title without Shaquille O'Neal. Bryant will be named NBA Finals MVP and all will be right in the world of basketball.

Los Angeles over Orlando, 4-2