Final Four - North Carolina (32-4)

How They Got There

After a worrisome 0-2 start in ACC play, the Heels won 13 of their last 14 conference games to take the ACC regular season title. Playing without their best player, PG Ty Lawson, the Heels lost to Florida State in the Semi-Finals of the ACC Tournament. The Heels were awarded a #1 seed in the South Region. They opened against #16 Radford and were once again without Lawson. Even without Lawson, Carolina still put 101 and cruised to a 101-58 victory. Next up for the Heels was the #8 seed, SEC regular season champion LSU Tigers. Minutes before the game it was decided that Lawson would make his return and start. Early on it looked to be a bad decision as Lawson struggled and then appeared to re aggravate the toe injury. LSU went on a blistering run to start the second half and the game was tied late. However, Lawson seemed to become magically healed and took over the game, leading Carolina to an 84-70 win. The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight proved to be easy games for the Tar Heels. They dispatched #4 seed Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 in easy fashion, 98-77. Lawson scored 17 of his 19 points in the first half and Deon Thompson was the only starter that didn’t finish in double figures. Next up was the #2 seed Oklahoma Sooners. It was a chance for Tyler Hansbrough to face off with Blake Griffin. Griffin played well, unfortunately for him none of his other teammates showed up. The Sooners hit just 2 of 19 from three point land and the Heels cruised once again, winning 72-60. Danny Green was the surprising star, scoring 18. Lawson led the Heels with 19, while Hansbrough only contributed 8, a sign that this team has come a long way from relying on Hansbrough.

Key Players

The obvious ones are Hansbrough and Lawson but some of the overlooked guys will have to play well. Guys like Green, Thompson, Ed Davis, Wayne Ellington, and Bobby Frasor. If all of those guys struggle then the Heels will be in trouble, no matter what type of games Lawson or Hansbrough are having. Ellington has been on a tear the last few months and when he is hitting his jumper the Tar Heels are unbeatable. Green had been struggling for a while but seemed to break out against Oklahoma. He is another guy that can provide energy by hitting jumpers and getting rebounds. He is also one of the better defender’s Carolina has. Frasor is a pretty good shooter and can hit threes when needed. He also is a senior leader and provides an adequate replacement for when Lawson has to rest. Thompson and Davis are other guys where some games they give you a lot and some games they don’t. Davis has improved rapidly since the start of the season and could be playing his last games in a Carolina uniform (if he is foolish). These guys along with Hansbrough could potentially overwhelm Thabeet should they meet Connecticut in the Final.

However, all of that being said the biggest key is Lawson, if he doesn’t play well the Tar Heels chances of wining go down exponentially.

Why They Will Win It All

The reasons are numerous. Firstly, without question they have been the best team in the nation all year. Carolina raced out to a 13-0 start, including a 35 point thrashing of Michigan State at Ford Field. The fast start had people wondering if Carolina could finish undefeated. While that didn’t end up happening, the largest loss Carolina suffered all season was by 7 to Boston College. Secondly, they will not be overwhelmed by the big time atmosphere. Their main contributors were all at this point last year and have played in just about every big game situation imaginable. Finally, Carolina has more weapons than any other team. Hansbrough has an off night, Lawson can take over or vice versa. Those two struggle, then Green, Thompson, Davis, and Ellington can all score and pick up the slack. Carolina has only one player that is in their rotation that you don’t really have to guard, and that is little used freshman point guard Larry Drew II. Every other player they throw at you is a weapon on the offensive end.

Why They Won’t

One word, defense. The lack of defense has been the only thing keeping the Tar Heels from being called one of the greatest teams of all time. The Heels give up 72.1 points a game, much more than their fellow Final Four teams. Their Final Four opponent, Villanova gives up 66.9 a game, while Michigan State and Connecticut only give up 62.7 and 63.7 respectively. The Heels have really missed the injured Marcus Ginyard, who is their best on the ball defender.

The other potential reason is their head coach Roy Williams. Williams is a great coach but he has a history of shrinking in big games. Thankfully, the Heels aren’t playing his former Kansas team so Roy won’t have to remember that he coaches the Tar Heels now. Carolina was woefully unprepared to play Kansas last year and that goes on the coach. If Roy can get this championship he can really shut up the critics, as he would have won with his players, unlike 2005.