Mason closes up their road schedule tonight at UNCW. This should be an easy win for Mason, but Mason has proved that nothing will come easy for them on the road. They have lost 5 in a row on the road, with their last road win coming against lowly William & Mary way back on January 14.
Mason destroyed UNCW in their first meeting, 101-60. Every Mason player scored in that game, with John Vaughan leading the way with 20 points.
Wilmington hasn't had much go their way this year. Usually tough to beat at home they are just 5-8. That being said, they did beat first place VCU at home so when sufficiently motivated they can hang with the best at home. Wilmington is led by guards Chad Tomko and Johnny Wolf, while F Dominique Lacy controls the inside. Wilmington has scorers, averaging a very good 71.8 points a game but they have been a sieve on defense, allowing 84.6 a game.
Mason has had its fair share of problems winning at Wilmington. Even when UNCW has had down years like this year, Mason hasn't been able to pull out a win. Their last win at Wilmington came in 2004 and they desperately need that streak to end tonight. The conference tournament starts in just 9 days and with a win tonight Mason can just about assure themselves a first round bye.
Despite their problems on the road Mason sits just one game behind first place VCU, and tied for second with fading Northeastern. VCU has a tough game tonight at James Madison, while Northeastern has a tough game at Drexel tonight and then at home against Old Dominion to close the season. Mason can't just worry about those two teams though because they are just a game ahead of Hofstra, ODU, and Drexel. A loss tonight could be disastrous if those teams win.
Mason needs to get this road hex removed before the conference tournament where they will exclusively play on the road. They can't go in like they did at Delaware and only have Daryl Monroe scoring, missing all of their 3 pointers and foul shots. That means Dre Smith should shoot as little as possible. I like Mason to win tonight, they won't let it be as easy as it should, but they will escape with a win.
Prediction: George Mason 78, UNC-Wilmington 72
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