2015 NBA Playoffs - Western Conference First Round

Best Series: #3 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #6 San Antonio

This is going to be a fantastic and fun series to watch. The Clippers can shed the talk about them the past few seasons that they are a good regular season team but can't take the next step in the playoffs. Even just winning a playoff series wouldn't necessarily change that perception for people, but if they knock off the defending champions, that will earn people's respect.

Both of these teams are playing their best basketball of the year, which means fans can expect peak performances and the best matchup possible from both sides. Chris Paul versus Tony Parker and Blake Griffin versus Tim Duncan are two fantastic battles. It is such a classic battle of youth versus veteran influence. The advantage as far as athleticism obviously will go with Paul and Griffin in those battles, but basketball isn't only about athleticism. The advantage in smarts goes to the Spurs veterans who are so battle tested that a matchup like this they could almost handle in their sleep. We even get to see a Duke versus Carolina battle with shooting guard J.J. Redick going against Spurs shooting guard Danny Green. DeAndre Jordan makes a ton of wow plays, but his counterpart Thiago Splitter makes the smart plays. Then you have the wildness of Matt Barnes, against the calm demeanor and workmanlike approach of Kawhi Leonard.

The Spurs get a ton of contributions off the bench from Marco Belinelli. Manu Ginobli and Boris Diaw. The Clippers bench will counter with chucker Jamal Crawford, and Spencer Hawes, but the Spurs will definitely have the depth advantage. This series will not just be an exhibition in great basketball and athleticism but also the psychology of the game. Two coaches with NBA titles, Gregg Popovich and Doc Rivers will try to outwit each other and Rivers will try to will an effort out of his players that they haven't been able to give in the past.


Lowest Seed to Advance: #6 San Antonio

The defending champions were underwhelming for a large portion of the season, but caught fire towards the end of the year. They are peaking at just the right time and remind me of the #6 seed Houston Rockets that won the NBA title in 1995. They will be highly dangerous in the playoffs and I fully expect them to reach the Western Conference Finals and engage in a classic battle with the Warriors.


Best One on One Matchup: Rockets SG James Harden vs. Mavericks SG Monta Ellis

If the Oklahoma City Thunder had managed to make the playoffs then this would have easily gone to Russell Westbrook facing Steph Curry. Now, the mantle for best one on one matchup in the First Round of the Western Conference playoffs involves another MVP candidate James Harden, as he faces Monta Ellis. Neither player is known for their defense, although Harden did make a concerted effort to improve on that side of the floor. Ellis was excellent for the Mavs, averaging 19 points a game. He led the Mavericks in scoring, a mantle long held by Dirk Nowitzki. For the Mavericks to upset Houston, Ellis will have to keep the scoring pace with Harden. Harden was incredible this season, carrying a Rockets team without Dwight Howard for the majority of the season to 56 wins. Everyone talks about Harden's scoring, but as a shooting guard he still averaged 7 assists per game and did a great job of getting his teammates involved. These two players will show the best that offense has to offer in the NBA and will be highly entertaining.


Predictions:

#1 Golden State Warriors over #8 New Orleans Pelicans, 4-1

#5 Memphis Grizzlies over #4 Portland Trail Blazers, 4-2

#2 Houston Rockets over #7 Dallas Mavericks, 4-3

#6 San Antonio Spurs over #3 Los Angeles Clippers, 4-2

2015 NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference First Round

Best Series: #4 Toronto vs. #5 Washington

The Raptors message for the playoffs will be that maybe they don't have the defense to win a championship, but they have the offense to at least win a first round series. Toronto finished fourth in the NBA in scoring, averaging 104 points per game. However, they also gave up triple digits in points per game, and that has been creeping up as an issue as Toronto limped to the finish line.

The Wizards jumped out to a fast start this season but they also played a lot of medicore to bad teams during that time. Once the schedule got harder the Wizards struggled and things got so bad at times that there was talk that Washington should fire coach Randy Wittman. They have battled various injuries throughout the season, especially SG Bradley Beal, but they enter the playoffs as healthy as they have been. 

The Raptors leading scorer is SG DeMar DeRozan. He will be matched up with the Wizards Bradley Beal. I will detail it more later on in this post but Kyle Lowry versus John Wall will the ultimate matchup to watch. Both teams have equally skilled big men, with Marcin Gortat of the Wizards and Jonas Valanciunas. SF Terrence Ross and PF Amir Johnson round out the Raptors starting five and will face off with SF Paul Pierce and PF Nene. Kris Humphries, Otto Porter Jr., Drew Gooden and Ramon Sessions figure to be part of Wittman's playoff rotation. Patrick Patterson and Greivis Vasquez are the Raptors strongest bench contributors.

The Wizards have a far different identity from the Raptors. They are an average offensive team but very strong defensively. Normally, defense wins out, but I think homecourt advantage will make the difference in this series, as Toronto edges Washington in a thrilling series.


Lowest Seed to Advance: #4 Toronto

I don't foresee any upsets in the First Round. The most competitive series will be Toronto versus Washington, with Milwaukee versus Chicago as the next most competitive series. I think the youth and lack of playoff experience for Boston will make them fall short in stealing a game from LeBron James and Cleveland, while Brooklyn will be lucky to win one game against the Atlanta Hawks.


Best One on One Matchup: Raptors PG Kyle Lowry vs. Wizards PG John Wall

I know this has been a Raptors/Wizards heavy post but it is the only truly intriguing series in the East. Sure seeing Celtics vs. Cavs will be fun for nostalgic reasons but the Celtics are no match for Cleveland. Kyle Lowry missed a few weeks recently with a back injury but returned to the lineup April 10th and appears to have shaken off any rust he had. Lowry averaged 18 points, 7 assists and 5 boards this year. He played well against Wall and the Wizards in the regular season and made some crucial plays down the wire in tight games. Wall rested for most of the last week of the regular season, so he should be raring to go when the series tips off Saturday. Wall also played well against Lowry this season and you can expect both players to come out firing in this series. Wall averaged 18 points as well this season but also had 10 assists per game, giving him the slight advantage over Lowry. Neither player can single-handedly lead their team to victory but whoever wins this one-on-one battle will go a long way to helping their team win.


Predictions:

#1 Atlanta Hawks over #8 Brooklyn Nets, 4-1


#4 Toronto Raptors over #5 Washington Wizards, 4-3

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers over #7 Boston Celtics, 4-0

#3 Chicago Bulls over #6 Milwaukee Bucks, 4-2

NCAA Men's Championship - Indianapolis, Indiana

#1 Wisconsin (36-3) vs. #1 Duke (34-4)

Most fans probably wanted this game to be Kentucky versus Duke, but I'm happier with this matchup. Wisconsin proved what I long believed, that they were a better team than Kentucky. But all the good will from them ending Kentucky's bid at history will mean nothing if they don't finish the job tonight.

Duke trailed Michigan State 14-6 early in the Final Four and then completely dominated the game the rest of the way. It was quite obvious that the Spartans had nowhere near the caliber of player that Duke was throwing at them.

Wisconsin led Kentucky most of the way in their Final Four matchup but the Wildcats rallied late to take a four point lead. The Badgers didn't fold and Kentucky's offense was a comedy of errors the last few minutes, while Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky led the way for Wisconsin to pull off the "upset".

These teams played each other in December with Duke winning in Madison 80-70. However, I don't expect that game to mean much of anything tonight. Wisconsin is sky high after beating the Cats and Dekker has been shooting out of his mind in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils have a hot player of their own, F Justise Winslow. Sparty had no answer for Winslow, along with any other team Duke has faced in the Tournament this year. After a quiet Sweet 16 and Elite 8, Jahlil Okafor resumed being one of the most dominant players in college basketball against Michigan State. Senior guard Quinn Cook had his fifth consecutive double digit scoring game and his second straight game with zero turnovers. Even bench player Grayson Allen got in on the scoring, including a classic white boy dunk. Allen will have zero impact on tonight's game and I expect both teams to exhaust their starters and leave it all out on the floor. The most intriguing matchup in this game will be the battle down low between Kaminsky and Okafor. Kaminsky had no problems against the bigs of Kentucky and has experience playing Okafor so there will be no intimidation factor. Winslow will have his hands full with Nigel Hayes and Dekker. Hayes was off and on against Kentucky and sometimes when he shoots the ball you want to scream at him for taking such a dumb shot. Dekker disappeared from the Badgers offense too much on Saturday, so Wisky has to a better job of keeping him constantly involved tonight.

Duke has the advantage at the guard position with Cook, Tyus and Matt Jones. Bronson Koenig made some big shots on Saturday but became a little too shot happy and at times messed up the flow of the Badgers offense. Josh Gasser didn't play very well on Saturday and with the skill that Duke has at the guard position he needs to be much better tonight. Traevon Jackson will see some time off the bench but he is still getting his flow of being back in the lineup, so Koenig should continue to receive the majority of the playing time.

Kaminsky, Dekker and Hayes will be able to neutralize Okafor and Winslow. I think Cook and the Jones' will have strong games tonight but I also think that Wisconsin will be able to force them into turnovers and also mitigate their impact. The people talking about how Wisconsin will have nothing left after beating Kentucky on Saturday are foolish. Kaminsky didn't come back this year to just beat Kentucky, he came back to win a title and will have plenty left to give to the Badgers. Wisconsin has won their last four tournament games by seven points so I am picking that streak to continue, as the Badgers win their first national championship in 74 years.

Prediction: Wisconsin 75, Duke 68

2015 Final Four - Indianapolis, Indiana

#7 Michigan State (27-11) vs. #1 Duke (33-4)

The legend of Tom Izzo continues to grow as he has steered another Spartans team to the Final Four. Nevermind that he hasn't won a title in 15 years, the man that can't recruit or beat Coach K or Roy Williams is a genius! Snark aside, the consistent run of success by Michigan State is impressive. They trailed Oklahoma and Louisville for most of their games last week but managed to pull out victories each time.

Senior guard Travis Trice has been the unquestioned leader of this Spartans run. He is averaging almost 20 points per game in the Tournament and has also been careful with the ball, turning it over 2 times or less in the Spartans last three games. Aside from his performance against Virginia, junior Denzel Valentine has been there to complement Trice. G Bryn Forbes played huge minutes coming off the bench against Louisville in the Elite Eight. Branden Dawson cleans up Trice, Forbes and Valentine's messes, averaging 9 rebounds a game in the Tournament. Other members of the Spartans frequent rotation includes forward Gavin Schilling, guard Lourawls Nairn Jr, also known as Tum Tum, forward Matt Costello, and forward Marvin Clark Jr. Outside of Valentine, the Spartans don't have too many bigs, or guys to clean up down low and that could be a problem against Jahlil Okafor and Duke. However, Sparty shoots the ball so well that it hasn't often been an issue. When these teams met way back when on November 18, an 81-71 Duke victory, Dawson, Valentine and Trice played well but the rest of the Spartans didn't too much. Michigan State did shoot 50% but Duke shot even better at 54%, and the difference was Duke hit 50% of their three pointers while Michigan State hit just 25%.

The Blue Devils outlasted Utah in an ugly game, and then pulled away from Gonzaga in the second half to reach their first Final Four in five years. Most impressive about Duke's wins over Utah and Gonzaga was that Jahlil Okafor didn't contribute very much to either of them. The best player on the floor for Duke in those games was F Justise Winslow. Winslow and Dawson will be a fun matchup to watch on the blocks. G Tyus Jones and Trice will set the pace for each of their teams respectively and attempt to get the upper hand against each other. The Spartans can't overlook Blue Devils sophomore guard Matt Jones, who erupted for 16 points against Gonzaga. The other guard, Quinn Coke had a team high 19 points in the November win against Michigan State, and handed out 6 assists with 0 turnovers. If he plays nearly that well on Saturday, the Spartans magical run is definitely ending. Okafor was quiet last week but with his size advantage against the Spartans, I expect to see a more dominant effort like he put up against them in the first meeting. Duke's limited bench has been an exhausted talking point all season, but it hasn't really hampered them 37 games into the season, so I don't expect it to now. However, if they go on to play Kentucky in Monday's final, they will be tough pressed to beat the Wildcats with their potentially 10 deep rotation.

You can't take too much from November's matchup as where a team is in April compared to then is nothing alike. I expect the Spartans to follow their pattern from last week and get out of the blocks slowly and then crawl back and make a game of it. However, unlike Oklahoma and Louisville, Duke will go into another gear and pull away with the victory and get back to their first NCAA title game since their last championship in 2010.

Prediction: Duke 77, Michigan State 70


#1 Wisconsin (35-3) vs. #1 Kentucky (38-0)

For the second straight season its the Badgers and the Wildcats in the Final Four. Last season, Andrew Harrison hit a three late in the game to propel Kentucky to the upset and the Championship game. The circumstances are quite different this year, as Kentucky enters 38-0 and favorites to finish the season 40-0. The Badgers have lost just three games this season and guys like Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker remember last season's excruciating loss. Kaminsky specifically returned for his senior season because he wanted to avenge that loss.

The Badgers run this year has felt like a do over of their 2014 Tournament run. This year and last year they beat Oregon in the Round of 32, and this year and last year they defeated Arizona in the Elite Eight. The star for the Badgers last week wasn't Kaminsky, but Dekker. As the entire Badgers team struggled in the Sweet 16 against North Carolina, Dekker played his heart out, keeping Wisconsin in the game and eventually helping the Badgers pull off the win. Then against Arizona, Dekker hit an incredibly tough three pointer late in the game to ice the win for Wisconsin. He had no problems dealing with Carolina's size so I don't expect the monsters that Kentucky has to faze him too much. Kaminsky really struggled against Carolina the first half, but since that first half, he has played Player of the Year type basketball that people are used to seeing from him. Dekker and Kaminsky did the heavy lifting and it was enough to beat Arizona but guys like Bronson Koenig, Nigel Hayes and Josh Gasser will have to do more for the Badgers to pull off the major upset. Traveon Jackson returned after missing 19 games in the Sweet 16 but played less than 10 minutes in both the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, so he can't really be counted on. Wisconsin doesn't have nearly the depth Kentucky has, so fatigue will be something to watch in this game as Kentucky throws their waves of players onto the court.

After obliterating West Virginia in the Sweet 16, Kentucky trailed Notre Dame for most of their Elite 8 encounter, before once again Andrew Harrison hit a clutch three pointer late, and the Wildcats escaped with a two point win. Andrew and his brother Aaron don't score a ton but Andrew especially is a player Kentucky can always count on late in games. The most surprising part of Kentucky's game against Notre Dame was how easily the Irish's big man Zach Auguste dominated the game. August was just one rebound shy of a double double despite battling massive men like Willey Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns and Stein combined for just 9 rebounds in that game, and they need to up the aggressiveness in Indianapolis for Kentucky to reach 40-0. Interestingly, the the game as tight as it was, Kentucky coach John Calipari played only a 7 man rotation. Backup guards Devin Booker Tyler Ullis played a lot of minutes but Marcus Lee and Dakari Johnson hardly played. To me even with the game close, it isn't like Lee and Johnson haven't played in big games before, Calipari needs to get them into the action, because no team has a prayer of staying as fresh as Kentucky does.

The game against Notre Dame further reiterated what I already knew, that despite being unbeaten Kentucky isn't some juggernaut that can't be touched. No one can match their talent, but this is a team of a lot of freshman and sophomores. They will be playing a Wisconsin team with tons of veteran leadership and almost as much talent. Like Notre Dame did, I expect Wisconsin to punch Kentucky in the mouth early and quickly let them know they are in for a dogfight. But unlike Notre Dame, Wisconsin won't panic late and get away from their offense, or have one of their players try to play hero ball. I picked Wisconsin to beat Kentucky in this game three weeks ago and I see no reason to change my mind. The undefeated dream will come to an end for Kentucky and Wisconsin will reach their first National Championship game since 1941.

Prediction: Wisconsin 75, Kentucky 72