The Hail Mary - Super Bowl XLIX

#1 Seattle Seahawks (14-4) vs. #1 New England Patriots (14-4) in Glendale, Arizona, Line is pick'em

All this talk about balls the past few weeks makes you almost forget there is still one game left to be played in the 2014-15 NFL season. For the second straight year, the best teams from the NFC and AFC meet for all the marbles. In the AFC Championship, New England cruised to victory against their perennial bitch, Andrew Luck and the Colts. Seattle had a much bumpier time in their conference championship, needing a calamity of errors from Green Bay to defeat the Packers and overcome 4 interceptions by the overrated Russell Wilson. Both these teams battled adversity during the season. New England was once 2-2 and crushed by the Chiefs in Arrowhead, before getting hot and winning 12 of their last 14 games. Seattle was 3-3 at one point and seemed to have a Super Bowl hangover but has since won 11 of 12 games.

Offensively you have to give the edge to New England. Besides running back you could make an argument that the Patriots have better offensive personnel than Seattle at every position. The media might make it seem like Wilson is in Tom Brady's league, but with legally sized footballs or not, Brady is one of the greatest to ever play the game. In last year's Super Bowl, Peyton Manning and his receivers couldn't solve the tenacity of the Seahawks defense. Seattle punched them in the mouth and the Broncos appeared shook from the jump. Seattle will try to force that same physicality in this game but I don't expect Brady and the Patriots to be as shook by it. A big boy like TE Rob Gronkowski won't be intimidated by Kam Chancellor or Earl Thomas. Where the Seattle defense will make a difference is against the Patriots wide receivers, Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, and Danny Amendola. Shane Vereen is listed as running back but lately, his main use seems to be as a pass catcher. I expect Seattle to float who they have Richard Sherman cover out of that bunch, and wouldn't even be shocked if they try to throw him at Gronkowski at times, since he is the Patriots most dangerous receiving weapon. The Patriots offensive line was a big reason for their rejuvenation later in the season after a slow start. LT Nate Solder, LG Dan Connolly, C Bryan Stork, RG Ryan Wendell, and RT Sebastian Vollmer have proven to be the right combination up front to give Brady time and bust holes open for LaGarrette Blount. Blount was a beast against the Colts but he will be facing a whole other level of competition against Seattle's defensive front. DTs Tony McDaniel and Jordan Hill are a huge reason Seattle was third in the league against the run this year. Solder and Vollmer will have to slow down Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. Seattle LB Bruce Irvin is the Seahawks second best pass rusher, and the Seahawks like to send him on blitzes throughout the game. Last year's Super Bowl MVP, Malcolm Smith isn't even a starter right now, so odds are he won't repeat his MVP performance.

The Patriots are their best defensively since their last Super Bowl title. They struggled against Baltimore in the Divisional Round but completely flummoxed Andrew Luck in the AFC Championship game. Their pass defense, despite being manned by Darrelle's Revis Island actually ranked worse than their rush defense. Seattle has no weapons at receiver that will scare New England. Doug Baldwin may not want to believe it but he is the very definition of mediocre. Jermaine Kearse had the winning catch against Green Bay but before that he was targeted on all of Wilson's interceptions. TE Luke Wilson might be the Seahawks best pass catcher but he isn't a player like Gronkowski that you have to gameplan for. Wilson showed that he is not above making poor decisions and with Revis and former teammate S Brandon Browner patrolling the secondary, Wilson will have to be really careful with how he delivers the ball. As the media savvy Marshawn Lynch goes, so goes the Seahawks offense. There were times in the NFC Championship that Lynch willed the Seahawks offense, refusing to be taken down. He does also receive considerable help from his offensive line, anchored by Russell Okung. One collision I would like to see is big Patriots defensive tackle Vince Wilfork or defensive end Chandler Jones trying to tackle Lynch. Rob Ninkovich and Chris Jones will be the ones tasked with getting pressure on Wilson. However, the Patriots defense isn't really known for pressuring quarterbacks much and their goal should mostly be to not allow Wilson to roam all over the field. Wilson is at his most dangerous when he is on the run, and creates chaos in the defense. The Patriots linebackers will also be on Lynch watch. Despite losing perennial Pro Bowler Jerod Mayo for the season back in October, the play of the Pats linebackers hasn't wavered. Jamie Collins, Akeem Ayers, and their stud LB D'onte Hightower have helped protect against both run and pass all year for New England. Patrick Chung is a weakness at safety but is much improved over his Philadelphia Eagles days of recent memory. Also, it helps that he is surrounded by the excellent Revis, Browner, Kyle Arrington, and Devin McCourty.

Special teams are about even with both teams featuring excellent field goal kickers. The Patriots have Stephen Gonkowski, while the Seahawks counter with Steven Hauschka. The only thing really noteworthy about Seahawks punter Jon Ryan and Patriots punter Ryan Allen is they have last names that could be first names. The Patriots use receivers Edelman and Amendola as their punt and kickoff returners, while Seattle has Baldwin returning punts and Bryan Walters is currently returning kicks. Coach wise you have a titan like Bill Belichick of New England serving as the head coach in his sixth Super Bowl. Pete Carroll is annoying as hell and doesn't have the cache of Belichick but he has won both national championships and a Super Bowl and can become the first coach in history to win both of those titles in back to back fashion. Carroll coached in New England many moons ago as well so maybe he can finally get revenge after 20 years.

Last season's Broncos/Seahawks game was over right away and a major disappointment. Brady and Belichick Patriot era Super Bowls have one thing in common, they are always close. I believe that the Patriots will be ready to face the challenge of the Seahawks defense. I think Brady will pick his spots as far as going after Sherman, and I think Revis and Browner are going to force Wilson into mistakes. I expect Lynch to run the ball well and Blount to struggle to gain consistency, with the passing and run games evening themselves out, I think we are in for a thriller. I can't picture Brady and Belichick losing a third Super Bowl in a row and for that reason, and because of my faith in Brady over Wilson, I am going with the Patriots.

Prediction: New England 26, Seattle 23

Last Week Against the Spread: 1-1
Overall Against the Spread: 131-130-4

Last Week Straight Up: 2-0
Overall Straight Up: 183-82-1

The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships

NFC Championship: #2 Green Bay (13-4) at #1 Seattle (13-4), Seattle favored by 7 1/2

In a rematch from the very first game of the NFL season, Green Bay travels to Seattle with the winner representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. The Packers squeaked by Dallas last week, aided by a Mike McCarthy challenge that was correctly overturned by the officials. Seattle let Carolina hang around for three quarters and then blew them away in the final 15 minutes.

In the first meeting between these teams, Seattle blew out Green Bay 36-16. Aaron Rodgers didn't throw Dick Sherman's way once and the Packers managed just 255 total yards of offense. Eddie Lacy was knocked out of the game with a concussion and the Packers were physically dominated on both sides of the ball by Seattle. The Packers talking point this week has been that they are a different team since that September game. Davante Adams has emerged at wide receiver, Richard Rodgers at tight end, and Rodgers rapport is better than ever with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. However, the Seahawks can also say that they are a different team. After that stomping of the Packers, Seattle limped to a 5-4 mark, but now are currently on a seven game winning streak. The defense has been a big reason for that winning streak, although the Panthers were able to move the ball on Seattle far more than I expected. This game will be all about how much protection the Packers can give Rodgers as he battles through his injured calf. The Seahawks aren't known for their pass rush, with Michael Bennett leading the team with just 7 sacks. Even with his injury, last week Rodgers was able to move around the pocket and evade most of the pressure the Cowboys put on him. Rodgers would be helped if Lacy can get something going on the ground. Even before he was knocked out of the game in September, he was being stymied by the Seahawks. Seattle hasn't allowed a back to rush for more than 100 yards since a loss to Kansas City in the tenth game of the season. Lacy doesn't need to go for 100, but the Packers best chance to win is if he has at least 20 carries.

Russell Wilson will be spending his day trying to evade pressure from Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers. Wilson was excellent against the Panthers, spreading the ball to his receivers and avoiding mistakes. The Packers are a pretty strong pass defense, so expect the Seahawks to focus their offensive gameplan on the Beast, Marshawn Lynch. Lynch gashed Green Bay for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Week 1 matchup. Lynch was held mostly in check by Carolina, but I don't expect that to be the case Sunday. In a reversal from the Divisional round, I think Lynch will have about 25 carries and be scoring the touchdowns for Seattle. His running presence will open things up for Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, and Luke Wilson.

I expect a far more competitive game this time than we got in September but ultimately the same result. If Rodgers was 100% I might be tempted to pick Green Bay to pull the upset, but the effect of his injury is going to show in ways it didn't against a mediocre Cowboys defense. I do expect Rodgers to try to challenge Dick Sherman at times, but his hubris could lead to picks, as Dick showed Cam Newton last week. You have to play your best game to win at Seattle and also have your stars at their best, and unfortunately for the Packers I don't think they have that with Rodgers right now.

Prediction: Seattle 27, Green Bay 20


AFC Championship: #4 Indianapolis (13-5) at #1 New England (13-4), New England favored by 7

Colts and Patriots is a rematch from the regular season, when New England and Jonas Gray destroyed the Colts 42-20 in Indianapolis. This is also a rematch from last year's postseason, which the Patriots also won, as Andrew Luck threw four interceptions in 43-22 loss. So the question is, will anything be different this time? Will the Colts make a game of it, or are we going to see another Patriots blowout victory?

The Colts were the most impressive team last weekend, handling the Broncos 24-13 in Denver. Indianapolis had struggled against elite teams all season, but after allowing an opening drive touchdown, the Colts defense played one of their best games of the season. CB Vontae Davis was all over the field, not allowing Broncos receivers any separation. Luck was not spectacular, throwing 2 interceptions, but he was good enough and Indianapolis even stuck with a run game that was producing very little, as Boom Herron averaged just 3 yards a carry. Can the Colts defense duplicate that effort against New England? They will likely have to since the Colts have almost no running game, and their passing game has not been as explosive in the playoffs as it was during the regular season. T.Y. Hilton has had some drops and Reggie Wayne serves as little more than a decoy at this point in his career. The Colts do have strong options at tight end between Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. The Colts offensive line did a fantastic job protecting Luck against Denver's fearsome pass rush, and should be well positioned in this game against a Patriots pass rush that doesn't generate much pressure. I would expect Darrelle Revis to draw Hilton, and mostly limit him, although Steve Smith did find some success against Revis last week. I think the Colts biggest producers on offense will be Fleener and Allen.

The Patriots twice overcame 14-point deficits against Baltimore last weekend, showing great resolve. Tom Brady was fantastic, throwing for almost 400 yards against the porous Ravens secondary. He didn't have nearly that level of success against Indianapolis in their regular season meeting but that was because Gray ran for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Gray was inactive for last week's game, but you would have to think Bill Belichick would use him in this game. In last season's playoff matchup LaGarrette Blount ran wild against the Colts. He was not on the Patriots when these teams met earlier this season. With Blount and Gray's past success against the Colts, it would stand to reason that New England will not be as pass heavy as they were against Baltimore last week. The Patriots also have Bradon Bolden and Shane Vereen at running back, so their options are virtually limitless. Rob Gronkowski dominated Indianapolis in the regular season and he figures to be a major part of the passing game on Sunday. Danny Amendola has come out of hiding in recent weeks for the Patriots, giving Brady another receiving option to go with Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell. Brady should have plenty of time in the pocket, as the Colts aren't know for their pass rush. Mike Adams and Davis will be busy all day trying to cover all of Brady's options.

I am tempted to pick the upset and go with Indianapolis after their impressive performance last week. However, I think Luck and the Colts are still about a year away from being a Super Bowl team. I do think they will put up a much greater fight this time than they have in their last two meetings with New England. However, I think the Patriots offense is humming much better than Denver's was, and that the Colts defense won't shut down Brady like they did Peyton Manning. I also expect New England to be able to run the ball against the Colts and control the clock. Luck will do everything in his power to keep the game close, and with the Patriots struggles on run defense, I actually expect Herron to have some success. But in the end, Brady and Belichick will pull out the victory and New England will reach their 8th Super Bowl.

Prediction: New England 27, Indianapolis 26

Last Week Against the Spread: 3-1
Overall Against the Spread: 130-129-4

Last Week Straight Up: 3-1
Overall Straight Up: 181-82-1

Cram Session: 2015 College Football Playoff National Championship

College Football Playoff National Championship

#2 Oregon (13-1) vs. #4 Ohio State (13-1) in Arlington, TX

For the first time since 2005 we will have a national championship game in college football that won't feature the SEC. Ohio State made sure of that by shocking the Crimson Tide in the Semi-Finals on New Year's Day. The Ducks play for a national title for the first time since 2011 and are looking to win the school's first college football championship. There should be plenty of fireworks as two top five offensive teams meet tonight.

I picked Ohio State to lose their past two games, including getting absolutely pasted by Alabama, but as happens from time to time, I couldn't have been more wrong. Even after Ohio State crushed Wisconsin 59-0 with Cardale Jones at quarterback, I felt that was more because Wisconsin was overrated. But Jones made many crucial plays against Alabama, keeping the Tide defense honest enough that Buckeyes RB Ezekiel Elliott continued his hot streak. For the second straight game Elliott rushed for over 200 yards on 20 carries and scored 2 touchdowns. With Elliott running like that, Jones is able to make the big play passes that the Buckeyes have feasted on all year long. The Buckeyes receivers don't catch a ton of passes, but when they do they make them count. Devin Smith had just 2 catches about Alabama, but those catches averaged 43 yards, and one of them was a touchdown. Sophomore WR Michael Thomas had his most catches of the season in the Semi-Finals. The Buckeyes offense has been tremendous all year, with their lowest point total being 21 points in their lone loss this season to Virginia Tech. Other than that they have cleared 30 points in their other 12 games. The Alabama defense wasn't as good as it has been, but I don't think anyone thought that a team starting a third string quarterback would carve them up to the tune of 42 points. The Ducks corners Troy Hill, Chris Seisay and Dior Mathis were able to slow down the Seminoles passing game, and their goal in this game will be to limit the big play that the Buckeyes passing game has thrived upon this season. The Ducks corners will have an easier time if defensive lineman Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, as well as LB Tony Washington can get to Jones like they were able to get to Jameis Winston.

The Buckeyes defense will have their work cut out for them trying to corral Heisman trophy winner Marcus Mariota. The Buckeys defense is led by All-American defensive end Joey Bosa, freshman LB Darron Lee who had a strong Sugar Bowl, and defensive tackle Michael Bennett. Mariota torched the Seminoles for 338 yards passing and completed 72% of his passes. The Seminoles did force Mariota to throw just his 3 INT of the season, but mistakes like that are so rare for Marcus. His lowest completion percentage in thirteen games this season 60%, which is an even more insane stat than the interceptions total. I didn't give Ducks RB Thomas Tyner any pub in my Rose Bowl preview as he had been out for weeks with an injury. He returned and led the Ducks in rushing with 124 yards. That was important as the Ducks typical leading rusher Royce Freeman was largely ineffective, although he did contribute 2 touchdowns. Oregon had a lot of different players step up for them in the Rose Bowl. Their leading receiver, Byron Marshall was held to just 20 yards receiving, so freshman Darren Carrington stepped up and torched the Seminoles for 2 touchdowns and 165 receiving yards. Carrington will be unavailable tonight as he failed a drug test and is suspended for the game. The Ducks other WR Devon Allen is out for this game due to a knee injury he suffered against Florida State. Ducks TE Evan Baylis came out of nowhere, hauling in 6 catches, as you could tell the Seminoles were wondering who this guy was, who before the game had just 4 receptions on the season. It speaks to the depth of the Ducks and just how many weapons Mariota has to work with. Out of necessity, Mariots and the Ducks will need Marshall to play well and Baylis to pick up where he left off in the Rose Bowl

It is hard to pick against Urban Meyer and Ohio State, as it seems no matter what challenges are thrown at them or what quarterback they have to start they keep winning. But to me, the Ducks feel due. They have been hovering in the national title picture for a while and haven't been able to seal the deal. I believe that Mariota is finally the man to lead the Ducks to that elusive national title. These teams are very evenly matched and I expect a great back and forth battle. Jones is making just his third career start but at this point, his limited experience hasn't mattered, so I don't expect it to start mattering now. I think the Ducks will have the ball last and Mariota will lead them down the field for a last minute victory, as this game goes down as an all-time classic.

Prediction: Oregon 41, Ohio State 35

Overall: 105-33

The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round

AFC Divisional Round: #6 Baltimore (11-6) at #1 New England (12-4), New England favored by 7

Last weekend the Ravens earned playoff redemption by winning a playoff game at Pittsburgh. This weekend, they travel to New England, facing a Patriots team that is looking for redemption of their own. The Ravens have won 2 of the past 3 playoff meetings between these teams in New England. The last time these teams met in the playoffs was two years ago in the AFC Championship. The Ravens defense stymied Tom Brady and embarrassed the Patriots, as they would eventually go on to win the Super Bowl.

The playoffs seem to bring out a different side of Joe Flacco. Much like Eli Manning, Flacco can look maddeningly inconsistent during the playoffs and then a switch turns on and he becomes Joe Cool come playoff time. Flacco has won six of his last seven playoff games, throwing 17 TDs and 1 INT in that span. The Ravens handled Pittsburgh last weekend and it was even more impressive because they did it without Justin Forsett having a strong game rushing. The Ravens defense shut down Pittsburgh and was largely helped by the fact that the Steelers didn't have Le'Veon Bell at their disposal. Tom Brady will have his full complement of weapons available to him this weekend.

The Patriots rushing attack is hard to prepare for because Bill Belichick will change it up from game to game. Some games he will pound the rock with Shane Vereen, others it will be Brandon Bolden, Jonas Gray or LaGarrette Blount. Gray led the Patriots in rushing this season with just 412 yards rushing, and it is clear that the Patriots only run the ball almost out of necessity to try to keep defenses honest. Against the Ravens though it may be more of a necessity because of their sack masters Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. When the Ravens have beaten the Patriots in the past it has been because of their ability to pressure Brady. Brady has a plethora of weapons to throw the ball to with Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, and Brandon LaFell. However, those options will disappear quickly if Brady doesn't have time to throw. The Patriots offensive line has come together nicely this season after a tough start, and they will need to continue that play on Saturday.

Flacco would be helped if Forsett has a better game than he had against Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, the Patriots were just 17th against the pass this year, so opportunities will be there for Flacco to find the Smith's, Steve and Torrey, as well as dependable tight end Owen Daniels. Betting against Flacco in the playoffs seems pretty foolish at this point, so I fully expect him to play well and keep the Ravens in this game.

I would be very surprised if this doesn't come right down to the wire. This is a tough game to pick a winner and I basically am using the law of averages in deciding to go with the Patriots. I can't picture Belichick and Brady losing a third home playoff game, even if Flacco and John Harbaugh have an incredible amount of playoff success. I think the game will be well played and will be won because the Patriots will execute just a little more than Baltimore. Certain Ravens fans were very mouthy after they defeated the Steelers, and I can't imagine how much junk they will talk if they beat New England. Let's hope we are all spared from having to deal with that.

Prediction: New England 27, Baltimore 23


NFC Divisional Round: #4 Carolina (8-8-1) at #1 Seattle (12-4), Seattle favored by 11

On paper this is easily the least interesting game of Divisional Round weekend. The Panthers are heavy underdogs as they go to Seattle and try to knock off the defending Super Bowl champions. Carolina has won five straight games but only last week's win against Arizona was against a team with a winning record, and Arizona gets an asterisk because they had to start Ryan Lindley. The Seahawks are on a winning streak of their own, having won six straight games. Both teams have played excellent defense during their winning streaks, and the only chance Carolina will have in this game is if their defense can force Seahawks turnovers.

These teams met in the regular season with the Seahawks just barely scraping by with a 13-9 victory in Carolina. That was a different Seattle team then, one that was in the midst of a Super Bowl hangover. During their six game winning streak Seattle has allowed double digits in points just once, 14 against Philadelphia. Their defense has turned the corner after a slow start and might be even better than last year's Super Bowl winning defense. Cam Newton will have his work cut out for him, and will need some super human efforts from Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen if the Panthers passing game is to have any success. Jonathan Stewart has been looking like the Stewart from a few years ago in recent weeks, and the pressure will be on him to deliver Saturday night. If the Panthers can't establish the run, this game will get ugly quickly.

The Seahawks offense is all about feeding the ball to RB Marshawn Lynch. Seattle was first in the league in rushing this year, with an average of 173 yards rushing per game. That was a combination of Lynch, as well as QB Russell Wilson. Wilson is spectacular at keeping plays going and making plays with his feet. He is highly frustrating to stop as a defender, because everytime you think you have him, he pulls something out of his ass at the last second. The Panthers defense has been far better, and a guy like Luke Kuechly should be able to do a pretty good job of spying Wilson. However, the Panthers defense has looked terrible at times this year too, so I am not quite sold on this recent resurrection.

No one is giving Carolina a chance in this game, including Panthers fans. Sometimes that can motivate a team to a spectacular performance and they can shock the world. This will not be one of those times. The atmosphere in Seattle, not to mention the Seahawks defense is far too talented for Carolina to pull off the upset, or even keep this game close.

Prediction: Seattle 29, Carolina 7


NFC Divisional Round: #3 Dallas (13-4) at #2 Green Bay (12-4), Green Bay favored by 6 1/2

This is the game the NFL and fans wanted to see and now we get it. Detroit almost ruined it by defeating Dallas but some shady officiating and missed calls helped the Cowboys come from behind and get the victory. The Cowboys were 8-0 on the road this year, and the Packers were 8-0 at home this year, so something will have to give on Sunday.

The Cowboys focus in this cold weather game should be to pound the ball with DeMarco Murray against the Packers 23rd ranked run defense, and then supplement with the pass to Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams and Jason Witten when need be. The Cowboys got behind against the Lions last weekend and the run game struggled at times but Jason Garrett did a nice job of staying patient and sticking with it. Even if Murray gets off to a slow start on Sunday, the Cowboys cannot abandon their ground game unless they get 3 or 4 touchdowns behind.

The Cowboys defense has performed much better this season than anticipated but they face their greatest challenge against the Packers offense in Lambeau. The Packers have averaged almost 40 points per game at home this season, and were held under 30 points at home just once this season. Rodgers has not thrown an interception at home all year and he should have no problem passing the ball against the Cowboys 26th ranked pass defense. Rodgers has so many weapons to throw to in Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and even Eddie Lacy out of the backfield. The Cowboys have been good at stopping the run this season, but I don't think they have had to face a lumbering back like Lacy this season. Lacy usually is only taken down if you throw two or three guys at him, which can really wear on a defense.

The Packers defense can't just fully concentrate on Murray though, because Tony Romo has been superb this season. Romo did take some silly sacks in last week's game against Detroit but he showed a lot of moxie in bringing Dallas back to a victory. He avoided the critical mistake that has plagued him throughout his career and that has been a theme for him all season long. He has to continue to play within what the game gives him and not try to do too much hero ball. He will also have to keep his eyes on Clay Matthews, as Matthews has had a ton of success against Dallas in the past, and I am sure Dom Capers will blitz him a few times in this game.

Games don't always live up to the hype but I think this one will. These are two evenly matched teams with balanced offenses, and defenses that have some strengths but enough weaknesses that I expect a lot of scoring, even in the frigid temperatures. Rodgers is dealing with a strained left calf but I think the week off last week will serve him well and the injury won't be an issue on Sunday. I think that Rodgers will outplay Romo just enough to send Green Bay back to the NFC Championship for the first time since the 2010-11 season.

Prediction: Green Bay 30, Dallas 27


AFC Divisional Round: #4 Indianapolis (12-5) at #2 Denver (12-4), Denver favored by 7

Luck vs. Manning happens in the playoffs for the first time. The home team has taken the previous two matchups, with Manning and the Broncos defeating Luck and the Colts in Week 1, 31-24. The final score makes the game seem a little closer than it actually was, as Denver jumped out to 24-0 and 31-7 leads. Broncos TE Julius Thomas had his way with the Colts defense, scoring 3 touchdowns.

The Broncos are confident that they can win the Super Bowl this season because they are a more balanced team. Instead of relying entirely on their offense, off-season acquisitions of Aqib Talib and DeMarcus Ware have paid huge dividends. The Broncos rank second against the rush and ninth against the pass. Von Miller led the Broncos in sacks with 14, while Ware contributed 10, showing he still has plenty left in the tank. Even offensively, the Broncos are a little different. They have become far less reliant on Peyton Manning to make everything happen with his arm, thanks to the emergence of RB C.J. Anderson. Anderson averages almost 5 yards a carry and has been a consistent contributor when called upon. Some questions have been coming in over Manning's arm strength again as he struggled down the stretch. Any fatigue he was feeling should be helped by the bye the Broncos earned. The Colts pass defense is better than their run defense, especially with premier cornerback Vontae Davis, but even if Davis can slow down Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas can still make plenty of plays. He has mostly disappeared this season but even Wes Welker could contribute some receiving yards out of the slot position.

The Colts are a one dimensional team that has to fully rely on Andrew Luck. Luck can make some incredible plays and his latest one was a touchdown pass to Donte Moncrief last week as he was being sacked. Against a Bengals offense that was limited that is likely enough, but the Colts aren't going to be holding the Broncos to 10 points. Also, unlike the Bengals, the Broncos are able to rush the quarterback, so Luck is going to have his hands full all game trying to find time to throw. T.Y. Hilton struggled last week, dropping a few passes, and with Reggie Wayne barely being a presence at this point, Hilton has to play much better on Sunday. Daniel Herron received the bulk of the carries last week over an ill Trent Richardson. Even if Richardson feels better, if the Colts do try to run they would be better served giving the ball to Herron, as with Richardson all you get is 3 yards and immediately tackled.

The Colts have only beaten one good team all season, the Bengals. When facing any other good teams they were usually embarrassed as their defense couldn't keep up. I expect that to mostly be the case on Sunday. I think Luck will keep Indianapolis in the game through sheer will, but I have no faith in the Colts defense to make enough stops of Manning. I don't think they will force turnovers and I don't think that all the sudden in January the Colts will find the magic potion that helps them beat a very good team. It will be a Brady vs. Manning rematch in the AFC Championship, this time in New England.

Prediction: Denver 30, Indianapolis 21

Last Week Against the Spread: 1-3
Overall Against the Spread: 127-128-4

Last Week Straight Up: 3-1
Overall Straight Up: 178-81-1

The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round

NFC Wild Card: #5 Arizona (11-5) at #4 Carolina (7-8-1), Carolina favored by 6 1/2

This game is the red-headed stepchild of wild card weekend. Carolina is hosting despite having a losing record and being 3-8-1 at one point this season. The Cardinals are down to their third string quarterback, Ryan Lindley and second string running back Kerwynn Williams.

Cam Newton has battled through injuries and even car accidents this season but still managed to start 14 of the Panthers 16 games. He wasn't great this season but performed decetly considering the amount of turnover to his wide receiver corps from last year, as well as the constant injuries in the Panthers backfield to Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert. Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin are Newton's most reliable options. Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson will likely draw the assignment of covering the monster Benjamin. Benjamin had a fantastic rookie season but has struggled with drops at times this season. The Panthers allowed 40 sacks this season, but the Cardinals were able to get to the quarterback just 28 times this year. The Cardinals three main threats as pass rushers are Calais Campbell, Frostee Rucker, and the team leader in sacks Alex Okafor. The Cardinals defense was 13th in the league against the run, but they will have problems with Stewart, who has played his best football in years during the Panthers winning streak. Newton will try to pick apart a Cardinals secondary that ranks 29th in the league against the pass.

Lindley looked slightly more competent for Arizona against San Francisco last weekend, but doomed the Cardinals with three interceptions. The Panthers defense has been schizophrenic this season. They started off the season strong, but then during the team's 1-8-1 swoon during the season the defense gave up more 30 points 6 times. During their four game winning streak the defense has allowed a total of 43 points, including holding the Falcons without a touchdown in last week's NFC South clincher. LB Luke Kuechly remains the Panthers best defensive player, while pass rushers Charles Johnson and Mario Addison led Carolina in sacks. Williams has ran decently since Ellington went down for the season, and he will split some carries with Stepfan Taylor. The Panthers defense has more struggled against the pass, and Lindley does have weapons in Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. Rookie John Brown appeared to be emerging as a threat earlier this season but has really quieted down since the Cardinals quarterback situation became a mess.

I expect this to be an ugly game, that is dominated by the defenses. I think the Panthers will do a better job of converting their opportunities than the Cardinals will, who I expect to be hurt by more Lindley turnovers. Carolina will pull out the win and make teams with losing records 2 for 2 in the wild card round, joining the 2010 Seattle Seahawks.

Prediction: Carolina 19, Arizona 13


AFC Wild Card: #6 Baltimore (10-6) at #3 Pittsburgh (11-5), Pittsburgh favored by 3 1/2

Bitter rivals meet once again in the playoffs. Typically games between these two are all about the defenses, but the rivalry has taken a different tenor this season. Both teams have excelled on offense, with the Steelers passing game second in the NFL, while the Ravens rank 8th in rushing and 13th in passing. These teams split the seasons series this year, with the home team winning each contest. Usually Ravens/Steelers games are closely contested contests but this year both meetings were blowouts. The Ravens won 26-6 in Baltimore, while the Steelers thrashed Baltimore 43-23 in Pittsburgh.

Joe Flacco struggled some down the stretch but had one of the better seasons of his career under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. He finished with 27 TDs and 12 INTs while completing over 62% of his passes. Free agent acquisitions Justin Forsett and Steve Smith both paid huge dividends.  Smith led the Ravens in catches with 79 catches and over 1,000 yards receiving. Forsett rushed for 1,266 yards and 8 touchdowns. He had really slowed down the last three games, until last week against Cleveland when he carried the Ravens to a win with 119 yards rushing. Forsett will have his work cut out for him against the Steelers though, who ranked 6th in the league against the run. James Harrison has had a career renaissance this season. Injuries caused the Steelers to reach out to the retired Harrison and he now has 5 1/2 sacks this year and helped save the Steelers defense from derailing. Steve Smith has played like a man possessed all year, desperate to prove he is still a top flight receiver. The Steelers have struggled mightily against the pass this year, so the Smith's, Steve and Torrey will have a chance to make some huge plays. Injuries have also started to hit the Steelers secondary, as they might be without Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor for this game.

The bigger question injury wise for Pittsburgh is whether or not RB Le'Veon Bell will play or not. Bell was injured in the victory against Cincinnati last week and his status remains up in the air. Bell was awesome for Pittsburgh this year, but after jettisoning LaGarrette Blount, the Steelers don't have any real options behind him. Dri Archer or the recently signed Ben Tate would presumably be the new running back, but whether it is Bell, Tate or Archer, running on the Ravens will be tough with the return of Haloti Ngata for the Ravens from his adderall suspension. The way for Pittsburgh to win is how they won against Baltimore earlier this season, through the air with Roethlisberger and primarily Antonio Brown. Brown has been perhaps the best offensive player in football this year, and certainly the most consistent. He isn't just dangerous as a receiver, he can be used to run reverses and is an excellent punt returner. Bell was second on the Steelers in catches so that means if he is gone Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant will have to step up. Big Ben is known for his penchant of being hard to bring down and he could face serious pressure all night from Terrell Suggs (12 sacks) and Elvis Dumervil (17 sacks).

I do expect to finally get a close Ravens/Steelers battle in the playoffs. Injuries for the Steelers give the Ravens more of a chance, but their offense has been so up and down recently that I am not sure they can take advantage of those injuries. If the Steelers don't have Bell it will hurt, but Roethlisberger can still take advantage of a porous Ravens secondary.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Baltimore 23


AFC Wild Card: #5 Cincinnati (10-5-1) at #4 Indianapolis (11-5), Indianapolis favored by 3 1/2

This playoff game is between two teams with a lot to prove. The Bengals are back in the playoffs for the fourth straight season. They are hoping that this year bring more success than the previous three years have. Andy Dalton has struggled mightily in those losses and if his performance in the regular season at Indy, a 27-0 loss is any indication, he could provide even more negative ammo for NFL pundits and Bengals fans. For the Colts, they won another AFC South title but were outclassed almost every time they played a team with a winning record this season. People think they can beat Cincinnati but I expect hardly anyone to pick them in the Divisional Round should they win this game.

The Bengals were a different team back when they played Indianapolis earlier this year in October. A.J. Green missed this game and Jeremy Hill hadn't yet emerged as the Bengals premiere running back. While Green is expected to miss this game due to a concussion he suffered last week, now Cincinnati has a thunder and lightning rushing attack with Hill providing the thunder and Giovanni Bernard the lightning. The Bengals need to keep this game close and try to lean on Hill because they certainly can't count on Dalton. Dalton's playoff struggles carried over to the regular season this year, as he threw just 19 TDs and had 17 INTs. TE Jermain Greshman and WR Mohammed Sanu are Dalton's other favorite targets, and he should have time to throw to them thanks to the Colts underwhelming pass rush.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck threw for 40 TDs this season but was still a little too turnover prone, throwing 16 INTs. However, those are pretty amazing numbers considering the Colts complete lack of a running game. The Colts leading rusher this year was Trent Richardson, who finished with just 519 yards rushing this season on a 3.3 yard per carry average. Daniel "Boom" Herron has emerged in recent weeks as the Colts preferred running back and I would expect him to get more carries than Richardson. T.Y. Hilton had a breakout season this year, with 1,345 yards receiving and averaging over 16 yards per catch this season. Tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, along with old man Reggie Wayne and sometimes Hakeem Nicks make up the rest of the Colts loaded receiving corps.

This is a hard game to get a true read on. The regular season matchup doesn't mean a whole lot to me, but the Bengals past playoff failures do. How they start this game will go a long way towards showing how this game will end up. If they start off slow all the questions of past failures will start creeping into their heads and the team will crumble. I don't think they will start poorly this time but and I actually expect them to lose in the playoffs this year because of their defense. The Bengals only have on player this year that can get to the quarterback, Carlos Dunlap. Luck is going to give Cincy fits with his mobility and I expect him to have a huge passing day against the Bengals suspect secondary.

Prediction: Indianapolis 27, Cincinnati 20


NFC Wild Card: #6 Detroit (11-5) at #3 Dallas (12-4), Dallas favored by 7

The Cowboys are back in the playoffs for the first time in 5 years, and Detroit is back after a three year absence. The drama surrounding this game has been Lions DT Ndamukong Suh's status. Suh was initially suspended for stepping on Aaron Rodgers last week. However, it was overturned on appeal as apparently his explanation that Rodgers leg felt no different than the turf was considered believable. Even with Suh, the odds are against the Lions in this one, as QB Matthew Stafford is an atrocious 0-16 lifetime on the road against teams with winning records.

Stafford sucked on the road this year. He played pretty well against Green Bay last week but still was unable to complete even 50% of his passes. He only threw 22 TDs this season, way down from the previous time he got the Lions to the playoffs when he threw for over 5,000 yards. Surprisingly, his numbers are down despite the impact that Golden Tate had this season. Tate turned out to be an excellent addition, leading the Lions in receiving far and away with 99 catches, 1,331 yards and 4 touchdowns. Calvin "Megatron" Johnson still was the Lions leader in touchdowns, securing 8, but has had to battle injuries most of the season. The Lions running game was improved this season but still not at the level it needs to be for the Lions to be true contenders. Reggie Bush can never stay healthy and Joique Bell was unable to reach the 1,000 yard mark. Dallas going 12-4 this year was a huge surprise and the biggest part of that surprise was the play of their defense. After last year's disatrous season, and then the loss of Sean Lee in the offseason people, including myself, thought the Dallas defense would be even worse this season. They did finish 26th against the pass, but were 8th against the run and nearly pitched a shutout of Andrew Luck and the Colts two weeks ago. They have done it with some smokes and mirrors too as the Cowboys don't have a very good pass rusher, as Jeremy Mincey led the team with just 6 sacks. However, LB Rolando McClain provided much needed stability for Dallas at that position and is a leading candidate for Comeback Player of the Year.

Tony Romo had perhaps his best season ever, and not coincidentally did that when DeMarco Murray had the greatest season a running back has ever had in Cowboys history. The Cowboys discovered early that the formula they needed to follow to be successful was to have Murray carry the offense. It made life so much easier for Romo and it paid off huge dividends for Dez Bryant as well who had 16 touchdown catches this season. Terrence Williams emerged as a pretty reliable number two receiver for Dallas, especially in the red zone, finishing with 8 catches this year. TE Jason Witten isn't the player he once was but is still highly reliable and remains Romo's safety valve. It will be intriguing watching Murray go up against the Lions front, as the Lions were first in the league against the run this season, allowing just 69 yards rushing per game. Without Suh, Murray would likely have no problem still racking up yards on Detroit but with Suh in the lineup, it will make life much harder for Murray. Suh also led the Lions in sacks, an amazing feat for a defensive tackle. His presence at least gives the Lions hope in this game, as without him they would have almost no chance.

Even with Suh, I still expect the Lions to get handled by Dallas. Stafford and the offense have such a hard time on the road, and that 0-16 stat of Stafford's is impossible to ignore. I don't think Murray will run wild on Detroit but he will run well enough that Romo will be able to make plays in the passing game. Dallas will get the win and set up a much anticipated matchup next Sunday at Lambeau Field against the Packers.

Prediction: Dallas 31, Detroit 14

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-9-1
Overall Against the Spread: 126-125-4

Last Week Straight Up: 12-4
Overall Straight Up: 177-80-1