2014 NBA Playoffs - Western Conference, First Round

#1 San Antonio Spurs (62-20) vs. #8 Dallas Mavericks (49-33)

It almost seems like Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli, Tim Duncan, and Gregg Popovich could win 50 or 60 plus games for the next 20 years. The Spurs strung together 19 straight wins at one point this year and comfortably finished at the top of the Western Conference. In addition to Parker, Ginobli and Duncan, three other Spurs average double figure scoring. Kawhi Leonard, Marco Belinelli, and Patty Mills. Danny Green and Boris Diaw are just a point shy of averaging double figures, and Thiago Splitter isn't too far behind them. The Spurs have tons of options offensively and have a host of contributors both starting and coming off the bench. The Spurs excel on offense, ranking 6th in the NBA and also on defense, as they were the 6th best scoring defense in the league this season.

After a one year absence Dallas is back in the playoffs, and will be looking to win their first playoff game since winning the NBA Championship in 2011. The offense still revolves around the excellent shooting of Dirk Nowitzki but the addition of shooting guard Monta Ellis has taken some of the scoring load off of Dirk. Jose Calderon and Devin Harris give the Mavs a solid 1-2 punch at point guard, same for the small forward position where Vince Carter spells Shawn Marion. Samuel Dalembert has been a strong presence in the middle, leading the Mavericks in rebounds and blocks. Off the bench, former Spur DaJuan Blair and Brandan Wright gives the Mavericks even more size and length. Jae Crowder is another player that Rick Carlisle can insert into games to get some of his aging vets a breather and reliably count on.

I think this has the potential to be a highly entertaining series. Both teams can score the ball but where the Spurs have the major advantage is their superiority to the Mavericks on defense. That will be the difference in the series, but I do expect the Mavs to steal a couple games and make San Antonio sweat.

Prediction: Spurs over Mavericks, 4-2


#4 Houston Rockets (54-28) vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers (54-28)          

James Harden and Dwight Howard get all the headlines, and rightly so, but you could argue that Houston actually has a big three with the outstanding season former Florida Gator Chandler Parsons had this year. Parsons averaged the second most minutes per game on the team and was third in scoring, averaging 16.6 points per game. Point guard has been a bit of a revolving door position as both Patrick Beverly and Jeremy Lin have battled nagging injuries. Terrence Jones has turned into a reliable scorer and starter, and is getting a lot more open looks with the presence of Howard to go with Harden. Off the bench the Rockets best players are Omer Asik, who I guess they made happy after he wanted to be traded when they brought in Dwight, and Francisco Garcia, who it feels like has been around forever.

The Trail Blazers had a major bounce back year this season, thanks mostly to the fact that their starters avoided injuries for most of the season. Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and Robin Lopez each started all 82 games this season. That means the Blazers have a team that is used to playing with one another. The other starter, LaMarcus Aldridge missed just 13 games, which for him and his injury history, is a huge accomplishment. Veteran Mo Williams sees a lot of time off the bench, as does Dorell Wright. Thomas Robinson also comes off the bench and while it doesn't appear he will ever live up to his draft status, he does give the Blazers a solid 10-15 minutes a night.

Neither team is very good defensively so expect to see a lot of high scoring games in this series. I believe that Howard and Harden are better than player that the Blazers can throw at them. I know that Aldridge and Lillard are very good, but they will be outmatched in this series and the Rockets will move on to the Second Round.


Prediction: Rockets over Trail Blazers, 4-2

#2 Oklahoma City Thunder (59-23) vs. #7 Memphis Grizzlies (50-32)

Kevin Durant was spectacular this season and should be earning his first even MVP award. He averaged 32 points per game this year, and helped keep the Thunder rolling while Russell Westbrook dealt with injuries and missed half the season. Westbrook is healthy now and hopeful to get through the playoffs healthy, which he was unable to do last season and it ultimately cost the Thunder. Revenge will be on Oklahoma City's mind as they were dominated in the playoffs last year by these same Grizzlies. Serge Ibaka was the Thunder's second most reliable player, leading the team in rebounding and averaging an impressive 2.7 blocks per game. If you try to drive on the Thunder you most likely will be getting swatted by Ibaka. Reggie Jackson has been solid at point guard, learning from veteran Derek Fisher who can still come off the bench and hit big shots. The shooting guard position has been in a state of flux since Thabo Sefalosha went down with an injury in early March. Sefalosha is back but Scott Brooks has tried to limit his minutes. Caron Butler has been a solid veteran addition, and has been lethal from three points range when he has played. Kendrick Perkins only plays about half the game now, but the Thunder still rely on his rebounding presence to give them an edge on the boards.

The Grizzlies are built similarly to the Chicago Bulls. They are a below average offensive team but play some of the best defense you will see in the NBA. After a slow start to the season the Grizzlies caught fire and still managed to reel off a 50 win season. Their big three is Zach Randolph, Mike Conley, and Marc Gasol. Courtney Lee has been solid for the Grizzlies at shooting guard, and Tayshaun Prince has been a steadying veteran influence for this team. Kosta Koufos, Mike Miller, and Nick Calathes see the most time off the bench for Memphis. I think the biggest surprise of the season for Mempis has been how reliable the aging Miller was. Miller played in all 82 games this season, hitting almost 46% from three point land.

Last season the Grizzlies caught the Thunder short handed but this year they should receive the Thunder's best shot. Because of that and also because the Thunder has Durant who has played at another level all season, I believe Oklahoma City will be able to score on the Grizzlies tough defense and the Grizzlies won't be able to put up the offense to keep up.

Prediction: Thunder over Grizzlies, 4-2


#3 Los Angeles Clippers (57-25) vs. #6 Golden State Warriors (51-31)

The consensus seems to be that this is the most anticipated First Round series of this year's playoffs. Both teams play a fast-paced, exciting brand of basketball. Both teams are actually better on defense than they are given credit for. Adding to the intrigue is that these teams don't like one another. In past games, there have been multiple skirmishes and Klay Thompson already started the trash talking this week when he called Blake Griffin a flopper. The Clippers led the league in scoring this year behind Griffin, while Chris Paul continues to be a dual threat point guard that can score and then make you pay when you focus on him by finding the open man. Darren Collison has fit in nicely as Paul's backup and someone that can keep the offense flowing and allow Paul some breathers. Shooting guard has been a revolving door position for LA as J.J. Redick has battled injuries. However, Redick should be ready to go for the playoffs and if he is able to find open looks, he is always dangerous. Matt Barnes and DeAndre Jordan are the toughness that goes with the finesse of some of the other Clippers players. Jordan has really had a breakout season, averaging almost 14 rebounds per game and getting double-doubles on the regular. Danny Granger was picked up during the season and is expected to be ready for the playoffs, although his level of contribution remains a question mark. Other vets that see time off the bench include Glen Davis and Hedo Turkoglu.

The Warriors have had a season of trials and tribulations this year, with assistants coming and going and coach Mark Jackson's job status being called into question often. Despite that, they still won 51 games. The newest challenge for them going into the playoffs is the injury to Andrew Bogut. With Bogut out the Warriors will have to trot out Jermaine O'Neal's corpse more than they would like in this series. He has no prayer of being able to match the athleticism of Jordan or Griffin. The Warriors will still have a chance though because of Steph Curry. Curry is an incredible player, never afraid to shoot and able to score all around the court. He is also good at being unselfish and getting his teammates involved and is strong defensively, averaging almost 2 steals per game. Thompson is the Warriors other sharpshooter and as made evident in the playoffs last season, if both those guys are on fire, the Warriors are almost unbeatable. Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green don't add a ton on offense but they are part of the reason the Warriors have improved defensively this season. Off the bench, Harrison Barnes, Jordan Crawford, and Steve Blake give the Warriors a trio of guys that can be trusted with the ball and can spell starters at critical times.

With Bogut I might lean for the Warriors upset, but his absence is going to be glaring and will likely mean monster series for Griffin and Jordan. Watching Chris Paul and Steph Curry do battle will be tons of fun to watch, and also seeing if these teams get into it at all and hearken back to playoff basketball from the 80s and 90s. I expect the series to go seven games, and the Clippers to finish the Warriors off at the Staples Center.

Prediction: Clippers over Warriors, 4-3        

2014 NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference, First Round

#1 Indiana Pacers (56-26) vs. #8 Atlanta Hawks (38-44)

The Pacers started off the year hot, and then fizzled down the stretch, but still managed to hold off the Miami Heat for the number one seed in the East. Their leader is Paul George, and the team's dip in play has coincided with George's own struggles. The Pacers aren't an exceptional offensive team, but they make up for it with their defensive toughness led by David West and Roy Hibbert. Hibbert has come under some fire recently as his offensive performances have been dreadful and his toughness has been questioned. Somehow Lance Stephenson is the team's leading rebounder over the monstrous Hibbert. George Hill is solid but not spectacular at point guard, and off the bench the Pacers have Luis Scola, Evan Turner, C.J. Watson and Ian Mahinmi to spell their starters.

The Hawks squeak into the playoffs with a horrible record, and have changed from the perfectly average team to the just slightly above bad team. The Hawks are the only team in the Eastern Conference to allow over 100 points per game and make the playoffs. It is slightly commendable that they still managed to make the playoffs despite being without their best play Al Horford for the majority of the season. Also, when you look at a starting lineup that consists of Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, Paul Milsap, Cartier Martine, and Pero Antic you realize just how terrible the New York Knicks were that they couldn't make the playoffs over this team. Shelvin Mack, formerly of Butler, and Elton Brand, formerly a player of consequence in the NBA are the Hawks main bench contributors.

The Pacers should use this series as a chance to gain back some of the confidence they may have lost over the past month. The Hawks might be able to steal a game in Atlanta, but otherwise this series should be smooth sailing for the Pacers.

Prediction: Pacers over Hawks, 4-1


#4 Chicago Bulls (48-34) vs. #5 Washington Wizards (44-38)

This is a matchup I would prefer was not happening as I like both teams. The Bulls once again overcame an injury to Derrick Rose, traded away Luol Deng and still managed to win 48 games. Tom Thibodeau is clearly one of the best coaches in the league. The Bulls have a ton of trouble scoring, but win games because they never take plays off and play suffocating defense. Their leading scorer si a guy that doesn't even start for them, D.J. Augustin. However, the biggest reason for the Bulls success this season has been the play of Joakim Noah. Noah led the team in rebounds, assists, and blocks, and averaged a double-double this year. The Bulls are likely parting ways with Carlos Boozer and his massive contract this off-season but for now they will hope that he can string together some good offensive showings to make up for his lack of defense. Jimmy Butler epitomizes the Bulls will as a team and their toughness on defense. Kirk Hinrich provides veteran leadership and steady play at the point guard position. Mike Dunleavy can be dangerous when his shot is hitting, especially from three point land. Taj Gibson isn't always consistent but he is another large component of the Bulls toughness on the defensive end.

The Wizards are back in the playoffs for the first time in six seasons, and their faith in John Wall is starting to be rewarded. Wall led the Wizards in scoring, steals and assists. He continues to improve his outside shooting, and he was reliable, playing in all 82 games this season. Another reason for Washington's return to the playoffs is the play of big men Marcin Gortat and Nene. Gortat played in 81 games this year, and almost averaged a double-double. Nene is injury prone as always but with him healthy going into the playoffs he will provide Washington a huge lift both offensively and defensively. Bradley Beal continues to look like a future franchise player, and Trevor Ariza looks a lot like the Ariza that helped the Los Angeles Lakers to a title in 2009. The Wizards also have a lot of veterans at their disposal off the bench, including Andre Miller, Al Harrington, and Drew Gooden.

I don't like this matchup for the Wizards. While the Bulls can be beat because of their trouble scoring, I believe their defense is going to frustrate some of the Wizards younger players and give someone like Wall fits. I also think that Thibodeau will outcoach Randy Wittman and that edge will be the difference in the close games that I expect to see in this series.

Prediction: Bulls over Wizards, 4-2


#2 Miami Heat (54-28) vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats (43-39)

The Heat have struggled down the stretch but haven't exactly been trying to win. They decided to rest LeBron James and Chris Bosh for the last few games and basically conceded the one seed to the Pacers. Dwyane Wade did play in the last few games but has been dealing with injuries all season long and is definitely on the tail end of his career. The Heat are looking for the three-peat and whether they get it or not chances are this is the last season of the Big Three of James, Bosh, and Wade. The story is the same for the Heat as it has always been, teams kill them on the glass but they win with their defensive intensity and the fact that they have the best player on the planet in James. Ray Allen continues to defy aging and can still hit a clutch three when you need it. The Birdman, Chris Andersen provides a ton of energy off the bench, and other big men that might see some time are Greg Oden's corpse and the formerly highly touted Michael Beasley.

Michael Jordan was crushed by the media when the Bobcats were the laughing stock of the league, but strangely hasn't received much credit for the Bobcats resurgence this season. Charlotte is one of the better defensive teams in the league and has a nice nucleus of young talent. The addition of Al Jefferson has made a huge difference, and Jefferson is having one of the best seasons of his career. Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson give the Bobcats a nice scoring punch in the backcourt, while forward Josh McRoberts and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are solid. Off the bench, Cody Zeller has had a promising rookie year and Bismack Biyombo led the Bobcats in blocks this season. Gary Neal is another strong player off the bench and he had a good series against Miami last year in the Finals as a member of the Spurs.

Charlotte comes into the playoffs playing their best basketball of the year but I expect the Heat to quickly regain their dominant form. I think Charlotte has the players to be competitive with Miami, but not the experience to ever make the Heat feel any real danger. I think Charlotte can steal a game at home but otherwise, it will be smooth sailing for Miami.

Prediction: Heat over Bobcats, 4-1


#3 Toronto Raptors (48-34) vs. #6 Brooklyn Nets (44-38)

The Raptors are one of the bigger surprise stories of the season. Not that anyone really gives a crap about divisions in the NBA but the Raptors did win the Atlantic division. Despite this achievement, the rumor is that the Nets basically tanked their final two games so they would face the Raptors in the First Round. The Raptors don't have a ton of sizzle or household players but they play very well together as a team. DeMar DeRozan is Toronto's leading scorer, and Kyle Lowry is one of the bestter point guards in the league that you probably haven't heard of. Center Jonas Valanciunas is a force on the defensive end and glass and also scored in double figures this season. PF Amir Johnson was the team leader in blocks. Depth is not Toronto's strong suit but Grievis Vasquez brings a ton of energy and can light up the scoreboard when he comes off the bench. The Raptors pulled off a lot of trades this year and after a slow start and specifically when they shipped off Rudy Gay they seemed to find themselves as a team.

Brooklyn came into the season with a ton of expectations after trading for Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, but then got off to a dreadful start. Seems seemed even bleaker when they lost Brooke Lopez for the season, but after the All-Star break the Nets righted the ship. The Nets are a team with balanced scoring as Joe Johnson led the team with just 15 points per game. Garnett is no longer the scorer he once was but he can still grab rebounds with the best of them. Pierce picks and chooses his spots but is a far cry from the electrifying player he once was. PG Deron Williams has taken a ton of criticism in recent years and injuries have curtailed his game but he can still find the open man as good as anyone in the game. Mason Plumlee has been a real bright spot for Brooklyn this year and played very well coming off the bench. Andray Blatche has also seemed to find a home in Brooklyn, providing the Nets with reliable scoring off the bench.

I don't think the Raptors are going to take too kindly to the Nets basically tanking to set up a matchup with them. While Brooklyn did play much better basketball in the second half of the season, I still am not sold that they have the cohesiveness as a team to make a run in the playoffs. Just because the Raptors don't have a lot of big name players doesn't mean they aren't a strong team. I expect DeRozan to have a huge series and the Raptors to come out on top in a hard fought seven game series.

Prediction: Raptors over Nets, 4-3

NCAA Basketball Championship Game - Arlington, Texas

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#8 Kentucky (29-10) vs. #7 Connecticut (31-8)

I'd like to meet the person that picked this as the Championship game three weeks ago and shake their hand. Problem is, I am not sure that person would exist. As 7 and 8 seeds, this is the highest ever combined seeding in a Championship game. Kentucky wasn't even ranked in the AP poll when the Tournament began, while Connecticut was only as high as 18 in the AP top 25.

After a slow start and it looking like they were going to be blown out by the Gators, UCONN quickly struck back and then dominated Florida. DeAndre Daniels had a monster game and UCONN's guards dominated Florida's guards, not allowing Scott Wilbekin to get anything going offensively.

Kentucky once again took part in an instant classic, and once again won on a three point shot by Aaron Harrison, this time against Wisconsin. Another familiar formula Kentucky followed was getting behind early but then finding a way to claw back into the game.

The key for the Huskies to be able to knock off Kentucky will be once again having other plays step up on offense to complement Shabazz Napier. Daniels was that guy on Saturday, as was Niels Giffey. Fellow guard Ryan Boatright was his usual excellent self defensively but also added some scoring punch. The Huskies defense will also be tested by a Wildcats team with a lot of size and a lot of players with the ability to score. The Huskies bench contributed just 6 points in the win on Saturday, so the pressure will be on their starters to perform well throughout the game.

Julius Randle had just 5 rebounds on Saturday night but put up 16 points and could be in line for a dominant performance tonight. James Young has not received the accolades and attention that Randle and the Harrison twins have, but he has been outstanding in the NCAA Tournament. It seems like each game he is good for a couple of clutch three pointers and he led the Wildcats in scoring on Saturday. Andrew and his brother Aaron have both struggled with their shot the last couple of games, but Aaron has been easily forgiven because of the timing of when he has been able to hit shots. They will have a tremendous size advantage on Napier and Boatright tonight, and should look to drive the lane and make their lives a little easier. They are both excellent when they drive and then dish it to the big men they have like Randle, Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee.

I think it is impossible to pick against the Cardiac Cats right now. Game after game, these freshman have played amazing basketball under pressure and in tense moments. The stage won't be too big for them. Connecticut's defense will keep the Huskies in the game but the Wildcats have so many options for scoring that I don't think UCONN will be able to slow them down enough. The size advantage the Harrisons have over Napier and Boatright will become a huge factor on both sides of the ball. I don't expect Aaron to have to hit a game winning shot this time. I think Kentucky will allow its fans a chance to breathe tonight and enjoy a win. Calipari will bring Kentucky what it believes is its college basketball right, a national championship and their second in three seasons.

Prediction: Kentucky 67, Connecticut 59

2014 Final Four - Arlington, Texas

#7 Connecticut (30-8) vs. #1 Florida (36-2)  

Huskies coach Kevin Ollie has Connecticut back in the Final Four. I was curious to see how the Huskies program would fate when longtime coach and resuscitator of the program Jim Calhoun retired. After being banned from postseason play last year, Ollie has quickly proven that the Connecticut program should continue its success. The Huskies pulled off back to back upsets in Madison Square Garden last weekend, knocking off #3 seed Iowa State and #4 seed Michigan State. Their run is drawing parallels to their last championship and Final Four run in 2011. That year, it was Kemba Walker who put the Huskies on his back, and this year it has been Shabazz Napier.

Napier does so much for Connecticut on both the offensive and defensive ends. He will occasionally get some support from DeAndre Daniels, but often times, the Huskies are completely reliant on him offensively. In addition to scoring Napier is able to often fly past opponents big men and come down with rebounds. Napier is a pretty good defensive player, but the Huskies defensive leader is Ryan Boatwright. Boatwright was a menace to the Michigan State players, recording four steals. G-F Niels Giffey is a guy you don't often hear his name called but sometimes that can be a good thing because it also means he isn't doing much wrong while on the court. Center Phillip Nolan basically leaves the Huskies at a 4 on 5 disadvantage offensively and usually splits time with fellow big man Amida Brimah. UCONN doesn't have a ton of depth though and that could be their undoing this weekend.

The Florida Gators are on an absolute tear. They have won 30 games in a row and coincidentally enough their last loss this season came at Connecticut on December 2. When you look back at the stats from that game, it seems like it was mostly a fluky loss. Florida shot almost 50% and outrebounded the Huskies. They were going to win the game before Shabazz Napier hit a shot as time expired. Some would argue that Florida has had an easy road to the Final Four, but they did defeat UCLA in the Sweet 16 and the bruins were one of the hottest teams in the country. They might have caught a break by drawing #11 seed Dayton in the Elite 8 but Dayton had beaten some strong teams along the way including Ohio State and Syracuse.

Guard Scottie Wilbekin is on an absolute tear right now, and him and Napier could wind up in a scoring battle on Saturday. Patric Young is the Gators force in the middle and unlike UCONN's bigs he can be relied upon offensively. F Casey Prather was the Gators leading scorer in the teams first meeting, but in the Gators last three games he hasn't really looked for his shot much. Michael Frazier II is another dangerous guard for the Gators and someone who doesn't turn the ball over. F Will Yeguete, along with Young helps give the Gators their defensive dominance and off the bench Dorian Finney-Smith is a guy that can step up offensively with needed and is another tough defender.

This game really comes down to how well Napier plays and if Daniels or some other player on the Huskies can adequately complement him. In my opinion, Billy Donovan should focus his team's defensive attention entirely on Napier and let anyone else on Connecticut try to beat them. Florida is too good of a team to lose to Connecticut twice and I expect the Gators to never really pull away from UCONN but also never truly be in danger, as they return to the championship game for the first time since 2007.

Prediction: Florida 64, Connecticut 57


#8 Kentucky (28-10) vs. #2 Wisconsin (30-7) 

It seems the fabulous freshman of Kentucky just needed the pressure removed for them to live up to the hype bestowed upon them prior to the season. The Wildcats have been tremendous in this tournament and their last three wins have all been instant classic victories. Last weekend they came back from early deficits against both Louisville and Michigan, hitting big shots at the end of those games to win. It was Aaron Harrison's three pointer late that sealed the game for Kentucky and put them in their third Final Four in four years.

Aaron and his twin brother Andrew have really upped their play in the tournament run. Andrew did struggle against Michigan but like a good twin, Aaron was there to pick him up. F Julius Randle is an absolute beast and is going to be tremendous on the next level. He averaged a double double this season and that has carried over to the tournament, where he has recorded double doubles in all four games. Dakari Johnson is another big man for the Wildcats and he was a big reason for their win over Louisville. James Young has been scoring under his average but part of that is because of the other Wildcats stepping up their game. Young has hit some huge three pointers during Kentucky's run to the Final Four. Willie Cauley-Stein injured himself against Louisville and is doubtful for the Final Four. Someone who came up huge for Kentucky in his absence against Michigan was Marcus Lee. Any boost Lee can provide for Kentucky off the bench will be huge in their efforts of trying to beat Wisconsin.

The Badgers are back in the Final Four for the first time since 2000 and for the first time under coach Bo Ryan. They destroyed Baylor in the Sweet 16 and then outlasted the top seeded Arizona Wildcats. Frank Kaminsky basically single handedly led the Badgers to victory, scoring 28 of the Badgers 64 points. Kaminsky's big game was even more important because Traevon Jackson struggled mightily shooting from the field against Arizona, hitting just 4 of 14 shots. His fellow guard Ben Brust also had a rough game but is typically one of the most consistent players the Badgers have on the offensive end. Ever since helping lead the Badgers back against Oregon, Josh Gasser has mostly been a non-factor offensively, but is solid on the glass. Freshman Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes are the main options off the bench for Wisconsin.

With the run Kentucky is currently on and the absurd amount of talent they have, it is impossible for me to pick against them right now. The Badgers best hope is that their defense can frustrate the Wildcats young players, and guys like Jackson and Kaminsky have big games. Kaminsky will have to be hitting his shots from the outside, because athletically, he can't play against a guy like Randle. I don't feel like the Badgers have the firepower to take down Kentucky, and coach John Calipari will have the Wildcats in their second championship game in three seasons.

Prediction: Kentucky 72, Wisconsin 65