The Hail Mary - Super Bowl XLVIII

Super Bowl XLVIII: #1 Seattle Seahawks (15-3) vs. #1 Denver Broncos (15-3) in East Rutherford, New Jersey, Denver favored by 2 1/2

It isn't often that the two best teams end up making the Super Bowl but that’s what’s happened this season. Yes, as a San Francisco 49ers fan it pains me to say that Seattle was the best team in the NFC, but I have to say just that after they proved it on the field a few weeks ago. The Broncos were clearly the best team in the AFC the entire season, so much so that even Peyton Manning couldn't choke away the Broncos’ goal of reaching the Super Bowl. I'm mostly kidding, as Manning was superb in the win against New England, totally outplaying his counterpart Tom Brady.

What makes Seattle against Denver an even more enticing matchup is that each team has completely different strengths. The Seahawks win with and are built around their defense, with their offense being asked to do just enough. The Broncos win football games on the back of their offense, and ask their defense to make a play here or there.

An interesting stat to take note of is that Seattle is the first team to play in the Super Bowl since the 1990 Buffalo Bills that does not have a single player on their roster with Super Bowl experience. Sometimes the experience factor can be overrated, but I have seen even some of the most experienced players look a little flustered and overwhelmed by the magnitude of the Super Bowl. I definitely think it’s something to watch for, especially for Seattle's offense. QB Russell Wilson hasn't been very good for a while now, although he did make some critical throws when he had to against the 49ers. His ability to move around in the pocket and lengthen plays could be a major factor on Sunday. He doesn't have the best receivers, so his ability to move in the pocket allows Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin to have time to get open. He  will be facing a Broncos secondary that has really struggled at times, ranking 27th in the league against the pass. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has been good this season, but he is susceptible to allowing the big play, and the other Broncos corner, Champ Bailey, has been dealing with injuries and Father Time all season long. Mike Adams and Duke Iheanacho can also be beat, as they were in the AFC Championship, but, luckily for them, Tom Brady was unable to take advantage. Plays will be there to be made by Wilson and his receivers, but they are going to have to capitalize on them when they happen.

The most important player on offense for Seattle is RB Marshawn Lynch. Lynch hates talking to the media, but for Seattle to win he might have to be the MVP, after which he’ll  really have to grin and bear it with the media appearances. He’ll have his work cut out for him, however, trying to run on the Broncos, who ranked 8th in the league against the run this season. Broncos’ defensive tackle Terrance Knighton became a household name after the AFC Championship, partially for his play, but mostly for his nickname, "Pot Roast." Sylvester Williams is another force inside for Denver, and it will be up to the Seahawks offensive line, made up of Russell Okung, Paul McQuistan, Max Unger, JR Sweezy, and Breno Giacomini, to try to open up some lanes for Lynch. Another Broncos defensive player to watch is linebacker Danny Trevathan, who keeps making key plays multiple times a game.

This will be Manning's third Super Bowl appearance, and it might be the most well-rounded team he’s had going in. Manning and the Broncos passing game receives the bulk of the attention, but RB Knowshon Moreno has been reliable and productive almost every single game this season. The truth is that while Denver's offense ran roughshod over most of the league this season, the Seahawks defense will be the best defense Manning has faced this year by far. The Seahawks were first against the pass, allowing a paltry 172 yards passing per game. As a result, the best part of this game will be seeing Broncos receivers Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and Julius Thomas going up against the Seahawks secondary of Dick Sherman, Byron Maxwell, Earl Thomas, and Kam Chancellor.

The weather has been a major topic of discussion but right now it just sounds like it will be cold and a little windy with no snowfall. Manning and his play in cold weather have been discussed ad nauseum but if he struggles in this game it won't be because of the weather—it will be because his receivers aren't able to get open against Seattle's physical secondary. Colin Kaepernick was able to make plays against the Seahawks defense with his legs last week, which obviously isn't an option for Manning. This means  that he’ll need his big uglies up front (Chris Clark, Zane Beadles, Manny Ramirez, Louis Vasquez, and Orlando Franklin) to win the battle against the Seahawks front of Cliff Avril, Chris Clemons, Brandon Mebane, Tony McDaniel, and Red Bryant. The Seahawks also have an edge at linebacker as Bobby Wagner and Bruce Irvin, both of whom are capable of making big plays.

Often overlooked, return man Trindon Holliday is a serious weapon for the Broncos. Holliday has had his issues holding on to the ball, but when he does he is a threat to go to the house every time. On the other side, the Seahawks have Golden Tate, who has the ability to break some long punt returns himself. Keeping with Special teams, both the Broncos and the Seahawks have excellent punters and kickers, and even in a tough weather environment kickers Matt Prater and Steven Hauschka should be expected to make their kicks when they get their opportunities.

Most of the recent Super Bowls have been great games that have been decided in the final minutes. I think we’re in for another game like that this Sunday. I expect the Seahawks defense to control the tempo of the game and keep the scoring relatively low. It’s clichéd but the turnover battle will be crucial in this game. Both teams are generally pretty responsible with the ball, so whichever offense makes that crucial mistake, or whichever defense creates a turnover, can expect to turn the tide of the game. I think Manning will play well but not spectacularly. I expect Moreno to find it very tough going and that the only impact he will possibly have on the game is as a receiver. The Seahawks offense will strike on a few plays, but ultimately I think the Broncos will keep Lynch in check. These teams are very evenly matched but I think the Broncos strengths on offense will overpower the Seahawks strengths on defense. I think that, if Manning plays as serviceably as I expect him to and Denver wins, Peyton will be named Super Bowl MVP for the second time in his career.

Prediction: Denver 24, Seattle 20

Last Week Against the Spread: 0-2
Overall Against the Spread: 126-114-10

Last Week Straight Up: 1-1
Overall Straight Up: 173-94-1

The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships

AFC Championship: #2 New England (13-4) vs. #1 Denver (14-3), Denver favored by 4 1/2

I felt like I had to pick an upset in the Divisional Round and with all the injuries New England has I thought they would be the prime candidate to be upset. I didn't account for RB LaGarrette Blount to play out of his mind for the second straight week and essentially carry the Patriots to victory. The Broncos cruised for about three quarters against San Diego but some missed scoring opportunities nearly came back to bite them when the Chargers rallied in the fourth quarter. Peyton Manning was able to complete some clutch passes on third down on the Broncos final drive, sealing the victory for Denver.

All of the hype for this game is of course the 15th meeting between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Interestingly, both quarterbacks were just decent last weekend and were carried by their rushing attacks. I don't expect that to be the case in Sunday's game. I believe the quarterback that plays better will end up on the winning side. I certainly expect New England to try to feature their run game and feed Blount, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vareen, and maybe even Brandon Bolden, but I also think that Bill Belichick sees a Broncos secondary that he can exploit. The Broncos have lost CB Chris Harris Jr. for the rest of the season, which could open up plenty of opportunities for Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, and even TE Michael Hoomanawanui. They also lost their star LB Von Miller weeks ago, and Miller had a fumble return for a touchdown in the teams regular season meeting. The Patriots have been vulnerable up front this season, allowing Brady to be sacked 40 times this season. Broncos defensive ends Malik Jackson and Shaun Phillips will have to force some sort of disruption and not let Brady get comfortable in the pocket. That same credo applies to the Patriots defense, and Manning makes that even harder with how quickly he releases the ball. Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones made their presences felt against the Colts last weekend and in the Patriots comeback against Denver, they helped slow down the Broncos attack by constantly being in Manning's face. Aqib Talib will have his hands full going up against Demaryius Thomas and so will Alfonzo Dennard against either Wes Welker or Eric Decker. The Patriots little know linebackers, Jamie Collins and Chris White, along with stud Dont'a Hightower will have the responsibility of not letting Julius Thomas go too crazy. In the regular season game, Knowshon Moreno rushed for over 200 yards, yet Denver still was unable to win the game. Belichick will make Moreno a focal point in the preparation for this week's game. New England will have to pick their poison when it comes to which part of the Broncos offense they really want to slow down. Each team has good special teams, and very accurate field goal kickers in Matt Prater for the Broncos and Stephen Gostkowski for the Patriots.

Throw out the regular season game between these teams, it means nothing. Having the game in Denver definitely presents some advantage for the Broncos, mostly in that it could help their defense disrupt Brady with the help of crowd noise. I think this game will see both offenses play well, and the defenses bend but one of them avoid breaking. I don't expect a lot of turnovers from either side and think this will be a very well played game. These teams couldn't be more evenly matched and with two of the best quarterbacks of my generation facing off, I expect no less than a classic game. I think Manning's time and the Broncos time is this year to reach the Super Bowl and a Prater last second field goal will have the Broncos in their first Super Bowl in 15 years.

Prediction: Denver 30, New England 27


NFC Championship: #5 San Francisco (14-4) at #1 Seattle (14-3), Seattle favored by 3 1/2

After the heart attack that Wild Card weekend almost caused me, it was nice for the 49ers to put away the Panthers early. I need to stay as level as possible because I know from 630-10 on Sunday during this game I am going to be a complete mess. The Seahawks jumped out ahead early on New Orleans and then were able to hold on late as the Saints blew chance after chance, mostly due to sheer stupidity. Marshawn Lynch going into beast mode was enough for the Seahawks to win, as Russell Wilson continued his dreadful play of the last five games.

The 12th and QwestCenturyLinkwhatevercorporatenameithasnow Field has been a house of horrors for the 49ers for the better part of a decade. It has been especially dreadful in their last two visits to Seattle, where the Seahawks have beaten them by a combined score of 71-16. Despite these facts, I am completely confident that the 49ers will go to Seattle on Sunday and defeat the Seahawks. The reason I feel this confident is because the 49ers are playing their best football of the past two years, having won eight in a row. The Seahawks offense is nothing but Lynch at this point as Wilson is starting to be exposed for the game manager that he is. The 49ers defense has struggled mightily to contain Wilson in the last two games at Seattle. He has really killed them when he has gotten out of the pocket and beaten the Niners defense with his legs. The 49ers have the best linebacking corps in football and I hope that they put someone out of Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks, and NaVorro Bowman on Wilson as a spy. So if they can keep Wilson contained then I am not concerned at all about Seattle's receivers or Wilson's ability to beat the 49ers with his arm. Golden Tate, and Doug Baldwin are decent receivers, and they might hit a play or two on the Niners secondary, but they aren't anyone you really have to focus your gameplan on. Percy Harvin returned last weekend but was basically used as a rag dolly by the Saints and is questionable to play Sunday after getting concussed. The 49ers focus besides containing Wilson has to be Lynch. The 49ers have an awesome run defense but Lynch seems to be the one back that has figured out the 49ers defense. He has run very well against them and even hurt the Niners as a receiver out of the backfield in the Week 2 game in Seattle. I don't expect the 49ers defense to completely stop Lynch, but at least hold him to a 3.5 yards per carry average and stop him from getting any sort of traction. Force Wilson to make plays and hopefully that will lead to Wilson turning the ball over. Offensively, just like Seattle, the 49ers want to run Frank Gore and run him the entire game. Colin Kaepernick has struggled badly in Seattle in his two starts there. Even with Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis as his weapons, I still want Kap's throwing to be limited. Even if Gore is struggling to run the ball early, offensive coordinator Greg Roman has to stay with the run. The only reason the 49ers shouldn't be a run first time in this game is if for some reason they get down by 3 touchdowns and have no choice. It is also imperative that the offensive line protect Kap from the Seahawks pass rushers, Chris Clemons and Cliff Avril. Another major factor will be how open Boldin manages to get with Dick Sherman on him. Sherman frustrated Boldin in Week 2, but Boldin was able to make some plays on Sherman in the game in San Francisco. The presence of Crabtree will also help a ton as it gives Kap another top notch weapon to throw to. If Vernon Davis has a touchdown then the 49ers are probably winning the game, so he is another key guy that has to make his presence known. Unlike last season, the 49ers have a kicker they can believe in, Phil Dawson. Dawson has been spectacular this season and everything the Niners hoped they were getting when they signed him. The Seahawks have an awesome kicker of their own, Steven Hauschka.

The 49ers will have to play their best game of the season to win in Seattle on Sunday. But this idea that the Seahawks are some unbeatable monsters at home has proven to be false over the last month. The Arizona Cardinals won in Seattle and that was despite committing 4 turnovers. The Saints had plenty of chances to get a win last weekend. The 49ers have to stick to their identity and play top notch defense. They can't get behind 17-0 like they did in the NFC Championship at Atlanta last season. They have to start fast and limit the crowds involvement from the jump. This is Jim Harbaugh's third straight time taking the 49ers to the NFC Championship and I believe this year's team is the best group he has had. He has led the 49ers one step at a time to the ultimate goal of winning the Super Bowl. Time to get a win in Seattle and chase away those Seahawks demons.

Prediction: San Francisco 23, Seattle 19


Last Week Against the Spread: 1-2-1
Overall Against the Spread: 126-112-10

Last Week Straight Up: 3-1
Overall Straight Up: 178-85-1

The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round

NFC Divisional Round: #6 New Orleans (12-5) at #1 Seattle (13-3), Seattle favored by 8

When these teams met a little over a month ago, the Seahawks embarrassed the Saints, winning 34-7. The game fed fuel to the notions that the Seahawks are unbeatable  at home, and the Saints are a terrible road team. The narrative has changed some since that game. The Seahawks have since lost at home to the Arizona Cardinals, who didn't make the playoffs, while the Saints went to Philadelphia last week and earned a hard fought, road playoff win. Despite that, Vegas has installed the Seahawks as 8 point favorites in the rematch. One major concern for Drew Brees and the Saints is turnovers. They buried themselves because of turnovers the first time these teams played, and they also turned the ball over a bunch last week at Philadelphia. The Eagles weren't good enough to take advantage of those turnovers, but they can't expect to have multiple turnovers this weekend and come away with a victory. It also helped that the Saints were able to successfully run the ball against the Eagles, despite the absence of Pierre Thomas. Mark Ingram rushed for 97 yards and has finally started looking like the running back we all saw at Alabama. The Saints also got some strong rushing from a guy I had never heard of until last weekend, Khiry Robinson. If Thomas is unable to go again this weekend, it will be on those two to try to run on the Seahawks seventh ranked rushing defense. Throwing on the Seahawks can be next to impossible at time, as they finished number one against the pass. I don't hide my disdain for Dick Sherman but there is no denying the man has plenty of skills. Safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas also fly all over the field and make it very had for opponents to get any consistency with their passing game. If the Saints can't get the run game going, then it is hard to envision Marques Colston, Kenny Stills, Robert Meachem, and even Jimmy Graham from going too wild. The Saints offensive line is a major part of the game to watch, not just because of the Saints need to run the ball, but of course the Saints need to give Brees as much time as possible. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson was spectacular in that win against the Saints but since then he has been mediocre at best. In his last four game he has 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions and only topped 200 yards passing in one of those games. WR Percy Harvin is set to play in this game but he has to be so rusty at this point that I can't imagine him having too great of an impact on the game. The Seahawks passing game doesn't have anyone that scares you and to me is the biggest reason the Seahawks are very beatable. No one is scared to cover Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin or Zach Miller. To me the Saints need to focus their energy on trying to not let Wilson get oustide of the pocket and also not let Marshawn Lynch destroy them like he did in the playoffs a few years ago. Of course, these things are easier said than done, but the Saints defense did a very nice job stopping LaSean McCoy from having any sort of impact last weekend. The Saints defensive line against the Seahawks offensive line should be a nice, intense battle as well. I think the Saints will put up a better showing Saturday but I am not bold enough to pick them to pull off the upset. I think Lynch will do enough on offense, as will Wilson to help the Seahawks prevail and reach their first NFC Championship game in 9 years.

Prediction: Seattle 24, New Orleans 21


AFC Divisional Round: #4 Indianapolis (12-5) at #2 New England (12-4), New England favored by 7 1/2

This game between the Colts and Patriots is the only Divisional Round matchup that isn't a regular season rematch. Some people are trying to point to their regular season meeting from last season when the Patriots obliterated the Colts in New England, but that's poppycock. That game will have zero impact on Saturday night's game. It is amazing that the Colts are even playing in this game, as they had to overcome a 38-10 second half deficit against the Chiefs last weekend. They come into this game feeling like they are playing with house money at this point. Andrew Luck had an up and down afternoon, with some terrible throws and some amazing throws. One player that was on point the entire game was WR T.Y. Hilton. It will be Patriots CB Aqib Talib's job to attempt to contain Hilton and stop him from making mince meat of the Patriots secondary. The Patriots may need to switch around Talib and also put Alfonzo Dennard on Hilton. The Colts don't really have the running game to take advantage of the Patriots biggest weakness, their 30th ranked rushing defense. Trent Richardson is a complete mess, as the only memorable thing he did last weekend was fumble the ball away without being touched. Donald Brown is able to move the ball pretty well but the Colts keep trying to split carries between him and Richardson, when really Brown should be the featured back. The Colts passing game will need to expand a bit more this week as besides Hilton only TE Coby Fleener had much of an impact. The Colts signed former Patriot Deion Branch, but I don't expect him to much of note. The Colts excelled most of this season at not turning the ball over so you have to think that last week was an aberration and they will do a much better job on Saturday. The Colts defense has typically been good against the pass but was eviscerated by Alex Smith and the Chiefs. They will have to play at a much higher level against Tom Brady or things will get very ugly. They can help their cause if they get pressure on Brady, especially their beast defensive player Robert Mathis. Mathis' strip sack of Smith last week was the turning point in that game and he could end up being a major factor Saturday night. The Patriots offense misses Rob Gronkowski, but Brady can still make things work with Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. The Colts caught a break against the Chiefs when Jamaal Charles had to leave the game early on with a concussion. Their run defense has been a problem all season, and the Patriots have many running backs they can throw at them. LaGarrette Blount is coming off an awesome game against Buffalo, while Brandon Bolden and Stevan Ridley also should get some carries. Ridley is really the best of the bunch but has been plagued by fumbling problems so rightfully coach Bill Belichick has some problems trusting him. The last few years there always seems to be one major upset in the Divisional Round. The Patriots are a beat up football team and have been dealing with injuries all season long. After the way the Colts won last week, I am starting to buy in that maybe they have a real playoff run in them. I expect a high scoring game, but Andrew Luck to add to his growing legend and lead the Colts to a shocking win in New England in the playoffs. Something Peyton Manning couldn't do.

Prediction: Indianapolis 34, New England 30


NFC Divisional Round: #5 San Francisco (13-4) at #2 Carolina (12-4), San Francisco favored by 2

Easily the best and most anticipated game of Divisional Round weekend. The 49ers have won seven straight games, and the Panthers have won 11 of their past 12 games. These teams met in San Francisco November 10th, and the Panthers came out on top 10-9. That win was the Panthers coming out party to the NFL that they were legit contenders in the 2013-14 season. Their defense completely shut down the 49ers offense, especially QB Colin Kaepernick, holding him under 100 yards passing and sacking him six times. There is no doubt that on Sunday this will once again be a defensive battle. On a scale of one to ten, the Panthers offense scares me at about a 3. Their whole offense just screams average to me. Cam Newton is good but is being propped up by the play of an exceptional defense. WR Steve Smith is getting older and seems to be constantly ailing. He was also upset by Ric Flair's heel turn when he abandoned the Panthers and hitched a ride with a real winning franchise like the 49ers. Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn also pretty average and not worth double teaming or being all that concerned with. The 49ers linebacking corps of NaVarro Bowman, Patrick Willis, and Ahmad Brooks should be able to contain the Panthers best receiver, tight end Greg Olsen. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart might have been imposing four years ago, but now, going up against the 49ers beast rush defense, they won't make an impact. But the Panthers defense is a whole other story. Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson might be the best defensive end combo in football, combining for 26 sacks this season. The unquestioned star of the Panthers defense is LB Luke Kuechly. Kuechly is everywhere on the field, making tackles, stuffing runs, and intercepting passes. But one thing need to remember about the regular season game is that the 49ers offense was operating at far below 100%. Michael Crabtree was still out and Vernon Davis left the game early with a concussion. Both of those players should be on the field the entire game Sunday, presenting a whole new slew of problems that the Panthers aren't used to. I don't expect Kap to be able to get outside the pocket and break runs like he did against the Packers, but if Joe Staley and company give him enough time, I do think his receivers are better than the Panthers corners and will get open. This will be an old school, smash mouth football game, and points will be at a premium. The Panthers are a good team, but to attempt to beat a team as good as the 49ers twice in one season is too much to ask of a group led by a quarterback playing in his first ever playoff game. The Niners will make it eight in a row, and get one more chance at the Seahawks in Seattle.

Prediction: San Francisco 19, Carolina 16


AFC Divisional Round: #6 San Diego (10-7) at #1 Denver (13-3), Denver favored by 10

The San Diego super Chargers are riding a wave of momentum going into Denver on Sunday. Behind Philip Rivers and his bolo ties the Chargers have won five straight games and are coming off a blowout victory last weekend in Cincinnati. They are double digit underdogs to the Broncos this weekend, but have to have a lot of confidence coming into this game. Not just because of how well they have played for the last month but because they defeated the Broncos in Denver just a little over a month ago. The Chargers defense held the Broncos to two of their lowest point totals of the season in both their meetings this year. Their victory over Denver a month ago was a guide on how to beat the Broncos. They dominated time of possession, giving the Broncos offense no time on the field, and no chance to get in a rhythm. They wore out the Broncos defense with Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews, and then stud WR Keenan Allen made big plays when called upon. Manning and the Broncos have to face down their playoff ghosts. They were in an eerily similar situation last year, when they hosted the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round and were huge favorites. Manning has one of the most decorated careers in history but his playoff career is filled with disappointments and one and dones. Manning will set the tone for this game by how he plays. If he comes out firing on all cylinders and avoiding turnovers, then the Broncos offense will feed off of that. His cause will be helped if running backs Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball do their parts as well. In the loss to the Chargers the Broncos hardly even tried to establish their ground game. It is important for them in this one that they avoid the need to constantly chuck the ball. Their offense will be better served if they gain some semblance of balance. That will open things up for Manning and his receivers, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker and Julius Thomas. Some people say that with this being the third time these teams have played and because the Chargers have former Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy as their coach that the Chargers will know everything the Broncos are doing. But to me, I think this being the Broncos offense's third time going up against the Chargers will be to their benefit. No one studies an opponent like Manning and I expect that he will have cleaned up the issues he had against Denver the first two times he played them. The Chargers are playing their best football of the year, but I believe the Broncos are too good to be one and done again this year. I think the offense will do a better job being balanced and controlling possession and the Broncos defense will make big plays when need be.

Prediction: Denver 35, San Diego 24


Last Week Against the Spread: 1-2-1
Overall Against the Spread: 125-110-9

Last Week Straight Up: 1-3
Overall Straight Up: 175-84-1

Cram Session - Bowl Edition - 2014 BCS Championship

BCS National Championship Game

#1 Florida State (13-0) vs. #2 Auburn (12-1) in Pasadena, California

After years of people proclaiming that Florida State was back and the Seminoles winding up being non-factors in the national championship picture, that all changed this season. It turns out what brought the Seminoles back was the play of a dynamic redshirt freshman quarterback Jameis Winston. Florida State hasn't been challenged all season, with their smallest margin of victory this season being a 14 point win against Boston College. The 34 points they gave up in that game were also the most they gave up all season. Every other game they only allowed 17 points or less. The Seminoles finished the season both first in points scored per game and points allowed. It would seem that the only team that might be able to beat the juggernaut that is the Seminoles is a team of destiny. Enter the Auburn Tigers. Auburn had two of the most incredible wins you would ever see this season. They defeated Georgia on a tipped ball hail mary pass, and then defeated Alabama on a missed field goal return for a touchdown. With coach Gus Malzahn's offense the Tigers only pass when completely necessary, otherwise content to run the ball down team's throats to the tune of 336 yards per game, best in the nation. They have needed their offense to control the ball because their defense is prone to giving up lots of points and lots of big plays.

The Seminoles offense is not just the accomplished Winston, they also have a plethora of weapons at running backs and receivers. Devonta Freeman and Karlos Williams split time and each finished with double digits in rushing touchdowns. At receiver, Winston has Rashad Greene, Kelvin Benjamin and Kenny Shaw, and at tight end the dangerous Nick O'Leary. With the flashy Winston on offense, the defense hasn't always gotten the attention it deserves. If they shut down the Tigers lethal rushing attack then they will certainly earn respect from everyone. Some of the more accomplished Seminoles on defense are tackle Timmy Jernigan, defensive back Lamarcus Joyner, and linebacker Telvin Smith. The Seminoles defense specializes in creating turnovers and making opposing offenses move backwards.

Nick Marshall is the Tigers dual threat quarterback, but more of that threat comes from his legs than his arm. Marshall averaged over 6 yards a carry, rushed for 11 touchdowns and 1,023 yards. In his last 8 games Marshall has had more rushing attempts than passing. For some teams that might not be the gameplan, but for Auburn that is exactly how they want Marshall playing. RB Tre Mason is the Tigers other rushing threat and is coming off an incredible 304 yards, 4 touchdown performance in the SEC Championship game victory against Missouri. The Tigers rushing attack might be the unit to successfully move the ball against the stout Seminoles front line. They better, because if Auburn is forced to rely solely on Marshall's arm, this game will get ugly fast. When Auburn does look to pass the name you will probably hear most is Sammie Coates. Coates led the Tigers in receiving and is coming off one of his best games of the season against Missouri, when he 6 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown. The biggest question in this game is can the Auburn defense possibly slow down Florida State? They have had problems slowing down anyone this season, giving up 423.5 yards per game. That doesn't mean they aren't without talent. DE Dee Ford leads the team in almost every major defensive statistical category. It will be tantamount that he have a strong game and get pressure and make life hard for Winston. Their other stud defensive player is CB Chris Davis. Davis is most known for returning the winning touchdown against Alabama but he could become infamous quickly in this game if he can't slow down Seminoles WR Benjamin.

Auburn will be looking to make it 8 straight national championships for the SEC. People in SEC country love that, but I think the rest of the country is ready to see a champion from another conference. I have had a hell of a time picking winners correctly in the BCS games but despite that I can't possibly go against the grain and pick against Florida State in this game. Some have expressed concern about the Seminoles lack of tough opponents. It is true that Auburn has played a tougher schedule than Florida State, but the Seminoles haven't just won their games, they have dominated. Auburn has had an incredible year. and is playing quite well, but their defense is not going to be up to the task of slowing down the Seminoles offense. If Auburn had at least a Top 50 defense I might be willing to pick them on the strength of their rushing attack. I think that Marshall and Mason will have their moments against the Seminoles but that when the game turns into a shootout, they won't be able to keep up. Florida State has just so much talent on both sides of the ball, and reminds me a lot of the 2001 Miami Hurricanes. Auburn might be able to hang around for a half or so but eventually the Seminoles will pull away, winning their first national title since 1999.

Prediction: Florida State 41, Auburn 27

Cram Session - Bowl Edition

Orange Bowl

#12 Clemson (10-2) vs. #7 Ohio State (12-1) in Miami, Florida

I am almost scared to pick this game with how off I have been the last few nights. Much like Alabama, the question going into this game is how motivated will the Buckeyes be after being so close to playing for the national championship. If they end up not being as motivated as Clemson, then the Tigers will roll them, like the Sooners did the Tide last night.

Both teams feature very accomplished offenses and defenses that have trouble matching that lofty status. Each team averaged over 500 yards in offense per game this season but did it in different ways. Clemson is mostly a pass first team, with the combination of QB Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins. This could be Watkins last game as he seems ready to tear up the pros. After a downer of a year in 2012, he bounced back in a big way this year, finishing with 85 catches, 1, 237 yards receiving, and 10 touchdowns. Watkins could be in line for a huge game against a porous Buckeye secondary. Also in line for a big game is WR Martavis Bryant, who averages an absurd 20 yards per reception. The Buckeyes will also be without defensive end Noah Spence, who led the team in sacks. He was suspended for using a banned supplement.

The Buckeyes get most of their offense from the legs of QB Braxton Miller and RB Carlos Hyde. Miller threw for 1,860 yards and rushed for 1,033 yards. Clemson's defense is strong against the pass, but not the run, so the Buckeyes should be able to impose their will on the Tiger defense. If Clemson can get some pressure on the Buckeyes, they might be able to force turnovers and keep the Buckeyes off balance that way. But if I am Urban Meyer I plan on a run heavy offense, only passing enough to keep Clemson honest on defense.

I think tonight is finally the night I will successfully pick a BCS game. This should be another entertaining BCS game and I expect both offenses to mostly have their way. I just think the style and physicality of Ohio State will be the difference, as they will pound the Tigers defense into submission.

Prediction: Ohio State 38, Clemson 34

Overall: 113-30

The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round

AFC Wild Card: #5 Kansas City (11-5) at #4 Indianapolis (11-5), Indianapolis favored by 2 1/2

These teams enter their posteason matchup on different trajectories. The Chiefs are stumbling into the playoffs, losers of five of their last seven games. The Colts went through a mid-season lull, but have won three games in a row, including a 23-7 rout of the Chiefs two weeks ago in Kansas City. When the Chiefs got off to a 9-0 start it was on the back of their defense. But in their 2-5 slide, the defense has collapsed. I was amazed to see that the Kansas City defense finished in the 20s against both the rush and pass. The Chiefs offense has turned things around though during this stretch and is hoping that the playoffs will be when both sides of the ball will get on the same page. Jamaal Charles has been consistently amazing all season and he will need to have a big game if the Chiefs are to win their first playoff game in 20 years. The Colts defense is strong against the pass but was one of the worst units against the run. The game plan should be pretty clear for Kansas City. However, in the game two weeks ago, the Chiefs had the ball for just 21 minutes, as the Colts pedestrian run game was able to control the clock. Donald Brown and Trent Richardson strike fear in nobody but for whatever reason ran effectively against Kansas City two weeks ago. Andrew Luck and Alex Smith had very similar seasons but both are playing their best football of the year right now. The Kansas City defense will have to try to force Luck into mistakes, something that he rarely does, as the Colts had a league low 14 turnovers this season. The Chiefs were also very careful with the ball so in this game the turnover battle will be at even more of a premium than usual. You know about T.Y. Hilton but Griff Whalen might be the Colt to watch tomorrow. He led the Colts with 7 catches for 80 yards against the Chiefs a few weeks ago. I think the Chiefs resting their starters last week and then having their reserves play so well, was a great result for Kansas City. It gave the team an extra sense of confidence that they have the guys up and down the team to get it done in the playoffs. Beating a team twice in one season is very difficult, let alone twice in two weeks. Colts fans must not be feeling too confident as they can't even sell out their first home playoff game in 3 years. I think that Charles will have a very good game, and the Chiefs defense will step up enough to give KC the victory.

Prediction: Kansas City 28, Indianapolis 23


NFC Wild Card: #6 New Orleans (11-5) at #3 Philadelphia (10-6), Philadelphia favored by 2 1/2

Two high powered offense collide in primetime on Saturday night. Except, the Saints tend to leave their high powered offense in the Superdome. If Drew Brees and company can take their aerial show on the road, than the Eagles dead last passing defense is the team to do it against. The Eagles will have their hands full trying to slow down Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Kenny Stills and the best tight end in football, Jimmy Graham. Graham is probably the key to the game, as he has played well both at home and on the road all season. More importantly is that the Eagles don't let Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, or Mark Ingram get going. The Eagles can almost concede to Drew Brees, but if they start letting the Saints running backs gash them, then it will be game over. The Eagles and Nick Foles have taken their high octane offense on the road and at home, but the Saints defense is very good at limiting the big play. The Saints finished second against the pass this season but haven't seen an offense like the Eagles. DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper, Brent Celek, and rookie Zack Ertz give Foles multiple options in the passing game. Philly has so many weapons they can throw at you, and it isn't just their passing game that is scary. LaSean McCoy led the league in rushing, helping carry Philadelphia to the number one rushing attack in the NFL. The Saints defense isn't nearly as good at stopping the run as they are the pass. A bigger question than can the Saints successfully move the ball on the road, is how will Foles fare in his first playoff start. He had a strong game at Dallas last weekend in what was essentially a playoff game, so he has at least shown he can deal with the pressure of a big game. The Saints have an opportunistic defense, and a strong pass rush. The Eagles offensive line struggled mightily against Dallas last weekend and has to play better Saturday night. After losing 10 straight home games, Philadelphia has now won four straight at home and has seemed to reclaim homefield advantage. The Saints can try to pretend like their road problems aren't a concern, but eight games has made it very clear that they are a mediocre at best team away from home. Philadelphia is peaking right now and because of that I like them to win in Chip Kelly's first playoff game.

Prediction: Philadelphia 27, New Orleans 20


AFC Wild Card: #6 San Diego (9-7) at #3 Cincinnati (11-5), Cincinnati favored by 7

Maybe the third year will be the charm for Cincinnati and Andy Dalton? Dalton will play his first home playoff game and his first playoff game against a team other than the Houston Texans. Dalton is really the key for how far or how quickly the Bengals season ends in the playoffs. He has been brilliant at times this season, but has also been dreadful, including last weekend when he threw four interceptions against the Ravens. He hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in 2 playoff games and because of that the Bengals never really had a chance in those games, despite having a very good defense. Dalton will have his chance to make plays against a porous Chargers secondary, that ranked 29th in the league against the pass. A.J. Green had a big game against the Chargers when these teams played in San Diego during the regular season and I expect him to have an even better game on Sunday. Surprisingly, the law firm, BenJarvus Green-Ellis had one of his better games of the season against the Chargers. Ellis averaged just 3.4 yards per carry this season but remained the Bengals lead back, despite Giovanni Bernard showing flashes of brilliance. Cincinnati again bring a good defense to the playoffs but one that will be tested by the Chargers offense. Philip Rivers has been rejuvenated this season, and the addition of Danny Woodhead has seemed to light a fire under Ryan Mathews. Rookie WR Keenan Allen may win offensive rookie of the year, and old reliable, tight end Antonio Gates is still getting it done. However, the Chargers offense couldn't muster much at all against the Bengals in their first meeting. Rivers has some escapability, but will really need his line to play at a peak level to stop guys like Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap. I think if Marvin Lewis and the Bengals can't beat the Chargers at home, they may never win a playoff game. Cincinnati was 8-0 at home this season, they have way more talent than San Diego, and a loss would be unacceptable. Even with the city of Cincinnati seeming not to care about these Bengals, maybe they will start to care when they win their first playoff game since the 80s.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, San Diego 17


NFC Wild Card: #5 San Francisco (12-4) at #4 Green Bay (8-7-1), San Francisco favored by 3

The biggest storyline entering this game between old rivals isn't anything about the players but all about Mother Nature. It is going to be negative temperatures when these teams play each other and will likely bring back memories of Tom Coughlin's frozen face from 2007. The cold will be tough to play in but both teams have to deal with the same elements and it won't give Green Bay any sort of real advantage. The advantage in this game is clearly for the 49ers since they have completely owned the Packers the last two years. Packers fans feel so despondent about their chances that one of the supposed best fanbases in football is struggling to sell out their playoff game. The 49ers have won three straight games against Green Bay, including last season in the playoffs when they nearly got Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers fired. If Capers still hasn't figured out a way to stop Colin Kaepernick then he probably will be fired after Sunday. Last season it was Kap running all over the Packers, and in the first game of the season this year, it was Kap throwing all over the Packers. The rest of the season Kap didn't come close to the sort of passing game he had against Green Bay in Week 1. Kap has played better during the 49ers current six game winning streak and has been helped by the return of Michael Crabtree to the lineup. The acquisition of Anquan Boldin might have been the best off-season move by any team. He made Joe Flacco 120 million dollars last year and is now making Kap look real good. Tight end Vernon Davis is a matchup nightmare for every team he faces and with the Packers missing Clay Matthews at linebacker, he could have a huge game. Frank Gore once again ran over 1,000 yards this season, but has been slightly inconsistent the last few weeks. He did next to nothing against Green Bay in Week 1, but he needs to at least be consistent if not spectacular Sunday to take some pressure off of Kap in the cold temperatures. Aaron Rodgers returned last weekend and made an immediate impact for the Packers. Another player that returned last week and made his presence felt was WR Randall Cobb. Rodgers and Cobb connected on the game winning touchdown in the waning moments in Chicago last weekend. The Packers offense goes to a whole other level with Rodgers in the lineup. One area where Green Bay is much improved than in past matchups against San Francisco is their running game with Eddie Lacy. Lacy didn't do much against the Niners in Week 1 but has improved by leaps and bounds since then. Backup running back James Starks has also been playing well the last few weeks. The return of Cobb to go with Jordy Nelson, James Jones and the emerging Jarrett Boykin means the Packers pass offense is lethal as ever. The 49ers defense though is looking more like the 2011 unit, than the 2012 unit that struggled down the stretch last season. Some defenses excel in one area, but the 49ers defense is consistently good against both the run and pass. They are also mostly healthy, hence the reason the team has peaked at the end of the season. I was scared of this game because playing Aaron Rodgers, probably the second best quarterback in football right now, is always a dicey proposition. But the Niners have proven time and time again they are better than the Packers, so I have utmost confidence they will make it four in a row on Sunday.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, Green Bay 20


Last Week Against the Spread: 12-4
Overall Against the Spread: 124-108-8

Last Week Straight Up: 15-1
Overall Straight Up: 174-81-1

The Hail Mary - Looking Back on My 2013 Predictions

NFC East (My Predictions)

1. *New York Giants 10-6, 2. Washington 9-7, 3. Philadelphia 7-9, 4. Dallas 7-9

NFC East (Actual Results)

1. *Philadelphia 10-6, 2. Dallas 8-8, 3. New York Giants 7-9, 4. Washington 3-13

The Verdict: Came close on Dallas and that was about it.


NFC North (My Predictions)

1. *Green Bay 11-5, 2. *Chicago 9-7, 3. Minnesota 8-8, 4. Detroit 6-10

NFC North (Actual Results)

1. *Green Bay 8-7-1, 2. Chicago 8-8, 3. Detroit 7-9, 4. Minnesota 5-10-1

The Verdict: Correctly predicted Green Bay as division champions and the Bears to finish second. Was correct about Vikings miss out on playoffs.


NFC South (My Predictions)

1. *New Orleans 10-6, 2. Atlanta 10-6, 3. Carolina 7-9, 4. Tampa Bay 6-10

NFC South (Actual Results)

1. *Carolina 12-4, 2. *New Orleans 11-5, 3. Atlanta 4-12, 4. Tampa Bay 4-12

The Verdict: Was correct about the Saints bouncing back, but underestimated the Panthers and overestimated the Falcons.


NFC West (My Predictions)

1. *San Francisco 12-4, 2. Seattle 9-7, 3. St. Louis 7-9, 4. Arizona 6-10

NFC West (Actual Results)

1. *Seattle 13-3, 2. *San Francisco 12-4, 3. Arizona 10-6, 4. St. Louis 7-9

The Verdict: I know my Niners well as I hit their record. Unfortunately, my bias against Seattle led to me underestimating them. I don't think anyone expected the Cardinals to win 10 games.


In the NFC I correctly predicted 3 (San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans) out of 6 playoff teams. I predicted Green Bay and San Francisco to meet in the NFC Championship game, but they will play each other in Lambeau on Sunday in the Wild Card round. My Super Bowl pick of the 49ers is still possible.


AFC East (My Predictions)

1. *New England 10-6, 2. * Miami 9-7, 3. Buffalo 7-9, 4. New York Jets 6-10

AFC East (Actual Results)

1. *New England 12-4, 2. New York Jets 8-8, 3. Miami 8-8, 4. Buffalo 6-10

The Verdict: Came pretty close record wise for all four teams. I almost hit on my outside the box prediction of Miami making the playoffs.


AFC North (My Predictions)

1. *Pittsburgh 10-6, 2. Cincinnati 8-8, 3. Cleveland 7-9, 4. Baltimore 6-10

AFC North (Actual Results)

1. *Cincinnati 11-5. 2. Pittsburgh 8-8, 3. Baltimore 8-8, 4. Cleveland 4-12

The Verdict: I went against the grain when it came to the Bengals and I ended up being wrong. Was correct about the Ravens not making the playoffs.


AFC South (My Predictions)

1. *Houston 12-4, 2. Indianapolis 8-8, 3. Tennessee 7-9, 4. Jacksonville 4-12

AFC South (Actual Results)

1. *Indianapolis 11-5, 2. Tennessee 7-9, 3. Jacksonville 4-12, 4. Houston 2-14

The Verdict: I was wrong to underestimate the Colts and I was brutally wrong about the Texans. Though, I don't think you would find anyone that predicted Houston to win just 2 games this year.


AFC West (My Predictions)

1. * Denver 13-3, 2. *San Diego 8-8, 3. Kansas City 6-10. Oakland 6-10

AFC West (Actual Results)

1. *Denver 13-3, 2. *Kansas City 11-5, 3. *San Diego 9-7, 4. Oakland 4-12

The Verdict:  Spot on with the Broncos, and also correctly predicted the Chargers would make the playoffs. Chiefs peaked a year before I expected them to.


I correctly predicted 3 (Denver, New England, San Diego) of the 6 playoff teams in the AFC. I was way off on my choice of Houston to be AFC Champions, but did have the Broncos making it to the AFC Championship, which remains a possibility.

My Super Bowl pick was San Francisco/Houston, which of course can't happen. But my pick of the 49ers to win it all remains in play.

Cram Session - Bowl Edition

Sugar Bowl

#11 Oklahoma (10-2) vs. #3 Alabama (11-1) in New Orleans, Louisiana

The biggest question entering the Sugar Bowl is just how motivated the Crimson Tide will be? Their season ended in as much of a nut punching fashion as you can think of. In the past, when not playing for a national title Bama has been caught napping in the Sugar Bowl, like when the Utah Utes dominated them. However, I don't think Nick Saban will allow Bama to not take the Sooners seriously. He will remind his players that they have a chance to enter the off-season with at least an alright taste in their mouths after the devastating loss to Bama.

Another player that can help deliver that message is Bama quarterback AJ McCarron, who will be playing his final collegiate game tonight. McCarron was the runner up for the Heisman trophy and has been a steadying presence for the Bama offense during his career. He isn't a flashy player but he has a way of avoiding any major mistakes that could hurt his team. McCarron has always had a strong run game behind him and that has been no different this season. T.J. Yeldon averages over 6 yards per carry and is at times a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. Kenyan Drake and Derrick Henry spell Yeldon at times and also make big plays when given the chance. Amari Cooper and Kevin Norwood don't get a ton of publicity, but Cooper is coming off a 178 yards receiving day in the loss to Auburn.

This game will ultimately come down to whether or not the Sooners offense can get anything going against the stout Bama defense. The Sooners passing game was up and down this season but their rushing attack was consistent. Auburn was able to gouge Alabama, and the Sooners will be counting on senior Brennan Clay to help move the chains. The starting quarterback has been a position of upheaval all season for Oklahoma and coach Bob Stoops hasn't announced who will start the game between Blake Bell, Trevor Knight, and Kendal Thompson. Bell might be the guy as he was instrumental in leading the Sooners back against Oklahoma in their win that is the reason they even made the BCS. Whichever quarterback starts or plays will have big play receivers available to him in Sterling Shepard and Jalen Saunders.

The Sooners played their best game of the year against Oklahoma State but I also think they played over their heads. Looking at the stats up and down the board it is obvious that Alabama is a far superior team to Oklahoma. As I mentioned above, I don't believe motivation will be a problem for Alabama in this game. No matter what combination of quarterbacks the Sooners throw at them, they haven't seen anything like the Alabama defense. I think the Crimson Tide will come out fired up and jump to a big lead, and then cruise to victory.

Prediction: Alabama 30, Oklahoma 16

Overall: 113-29