The Hail Mary - Week 13

Thursday, November 28

Green Bay (5-5-1) at Detroit (6-5), Detroit favored by 6 1/2


Prediction: Detroit 28, Green Bay 22

Oakland (4-7) at Dallas (6-5), Dallas favored by 9 1/2


Prediction: Dallas 31, Oakland 23

Pittsburgh (5-6) at Baltimore (5-6), Baltimore favored by 3


Prediction: Baltimore 17, Pittsburgh 12


Sunday, December 1

Miami (5-6) at New York Jets (5-6), New York Jets favored by 1


Prediction: New York Jets 24, Miami 20

Chicago (6-5) at Minnesota (2-8-1), Chicago favored by 1


Prediction: Chicago 32, Minnesota 27

Arizona (7-4) at Philadelphia (6-5), Philadelphia favored by 3


Prediction: Arizona 24, Philadelphia 17

Jacksonville (2-9) at Cleveland (4-7), Cleveland favored by 6 1/2


Prediction: Jacksonville 18, Cleveland 14

Tennessee (5-6) at Indianapolis (7-4), Indianapolis favored by 4


Prediction: Indianapolis 29, Tennessee 26

Tampa Bay (3-8) at Carolina (8-3), Carolina favored by 8 1/2


Prediction: Carolina 26, Tampa Bay 20

New England (8-3) at Houston (2-9), New England favored by 8 1/2


Prediction: New England 35, Houston 17

St. Louis (5-6) at San Francisco (7-4), San Francisco favored by 9 1/2


Prediction: San Francisco 24, St. Louis 21

Atlanta (2-9) at Buffalo (4-7), Buffalo favored by 3 1/2


Prediction: Buffalo 28, Atlanta 21

Denver (9-2) at Kansas City (9-2), Denver favored by 4 1/2


Prediction: Denver 34, Kansas City 24

Cincinnati (7-4) at San Diego (5-6), San Diego favored by 2


Prediction: Cincinnati 25, San Diego 23

New York Giants (4-7) at Washington (3-8), New York Giants favored by 1 1/2


Prediction: Washington 24, New York Giants 21


Monday, December 2

New Orleans (9-2) at Seattle (10-1), Seattle favored by 6


Prediction: Seattle 26, New Orleans 21

Last Week Against the Spread: 4-9-1
Overall Against the Spread: 84-84-8

Last Week Straight Up: 5-8-1
Overall Straight Up: 116-59-1

Cram Session - Week 14

Games That Matter To Me

Friday, November 29

Iowa (7-4, 4-3) at Nebraska (8-3, 5-2)


Prediction: Nebraska 24, Iowa 21


Saturday, November 30

#25 Notre Dame (8-3) at #8 Stanford (9-2)



Prediction: Stanford 34, Notre Dame 21


Top 10

#1 Alabama (11-0, 7-0) at #4 Auburn (10-1, 6-1)


Prediction: Alabama 27, Auburn 21

#2 Florida State (11-0) at Florida (4-7)


Prediction: Florida State 42, Florida 17

#3 Ohio State (11-0, 7-0) at Michigan (7-4, 3-4)


Prediction: Ohio State 35, Michigan 24

#21 Texas A&M (8-3, 4-3) at #5 Missouri (10-1, 6-1)


Prediction: Missouri 28, Texas A&M 26

#6 Clemson (10-1) at #10 South Carolina (9-2)


Prediction: South Carolina 30, Clemson 25

#9 Baylor (9-1, 6-1) at TCU (4-7, 2-6)


Prediction: Baylor 41, TCU 20

Last Week: 7-3
Overall: 104-20

The Hail Mary - Week 12

Sunday, November 24

Carolina (7-3) at Miami (5-5), Carolina favored by 4

Despite losing 5 of their past 7 games, the Dolphins are tied with the Jets for the final playoff spot in the AFC. The next month of games will make or break Miami's season, starting with Sunday's game versus Panthers and followed up with games against the Jets, Steelers and Patriots. Last weekend's win over the Chargers was a gritty one, especially with three backups starting on the offensive line. Week after week Ryan Tannehill is getting killed back there, but to his credit he has hung tough and made plays when needed. The Panthers are the hottest team in the NFL, having won six straight games. Redskins fans that want to quit on RG3 should pay attention to Cam Newton and how he has recovered from his struggles in his second year. The Panthers have a championship level defense, so if the offense can raise their game just a bit more, then Carolina will be true Super Bowl contenders. Like most Panthers games I expect this week's game at Miami to be a struggle but for Carolina to be their new selves, and finding a way to win a close one.

Prediction: Carolina 24, Miami 21

Minnesota (2-8) at Green Bay (5-5), Green Bay favored by 5

Aaron Rodgers can't come back soon enough for the Packers. Green Bay has to hope he can return by Thanksgiving against Detroit or there may not be a reason for him to play again this season with how the Pack have been losing. If Scott Tolzein is going to win a game as a starter, playing the hapless Vikings at home will be his best chance. Minnesota is winless on the road this season and Lambeau Field is typically a house of horrors for them. This game will remain close because Tolzein will make mistakes that will keep Minnesota competitive, but I expect Eddie Lacy to go over 100 yards and literally carry the Packers to a win.

Prediction: Green Bay 24, Minnesota 17

Pittsburgh (4-6) at Cleveland (4-6), Cleveland favored by 1 1/2

Pittsburgh has won four of their past six games to climb right back into playoff contention in the weak AFC. The Browns also are still fighting for that last playoff spot, so this is a pretty major game between two rivals. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers passing game have been on fire the past few weeks, as Antonio Brown is stepping into the number one role he was expected to take after the departure of Mike Wallace. The Browns rely on their defense to win them games, so when Jason Campbell throws three picks like he did last week and their special teams sucks, they get trucked, like they did by Cincinnati. The Browns have been pretty good at home, winning three of their past four games there while the Steelers have been terrible on the road. Sometimes making picks is just that simple, go with the trends.

Prediction: Cleveland 26, Pittsburgh 21

Tampa Bay (2-8) at Detroit (6-4), Detroit favored by 9

The Buccaneers are suddenly a juggernaut, having won two straight! Maybe that means they will win their first road game of the season. Bobby Rainey emerged into America's consciousness last week with a fantastic, dominating performance against the sorry Falcons. He will have his work cut out for him this week though, as the Lions rank 5th in the league against the run. The Lions pass defense on the other hand is awful and was repeatedly victimized in Detroit's loss to Pittsburgh last week. Bucs QB Mike Glennon is starting to earn accolades for his play, having thrown 11 TDs and just 4 INTs in his rookie season. However, I don't believe the Bucs defense will be up to the task of stopping Matthew Stafford in Detroit. The Lions offense goes to a whole other level at home. Most fun matchup to watch in this game, Calvin Johnson versus Darrelle Revis.

Prediction: Detroit 35, Tampa Bay 23

San Diego (4-6) at Kansas City (9-1), Kansas City favored by 5

The Broncos/Chiefs game pretty much played out as I expected. The Chiefs were shown to be good, but not truly an upper echelon team, because they don't have a quarterback in Alex Smith that can carry them above a certain level. When their defense isn't working and not being able to get to Peyton Manning once during the game qualifies as not working, the Chiefs will not win. Returning home to play San Diego and Philip Rivers, I expect the Chiefs defense to get plenty of pressure on Rivers. The Chargers offense has stalled out during their three game losing streak and while Rivers hasn't played poorly, he isn't playing at the high level he was to start the season. Also, the Chargers defense has struggled during their losing streak. If Smith can't take advantage of the Chargers defense, there isn't a defense out there he can take advantage of.

Prediction: Kansas City 27, San Diego 16

Chicago (6-4) at St. Louis (4-6), St. Louis favored by 1

Backup quarterbacks do battle in St. Louis. The Bears Josh McCown seems to finally be the backup the Bears have been searching for all these years. Unlike in past season's when Jay Cutler has gone down and the Bears season went down with him, McCown is keeping the Bears winning. The Rams are coming off their bye week, following a shocking road trouncing of the Indianapolis Colts. The game served as first round pick, WR Tavon Austin's coming out party. Austin had been a disappointment up until that game, but maybe now the Rams can finally feature him in their offense. Zac Stacy has also given them a running game, something they didn't have for the majority of the season. Strangely, the Rams most impressive wins have come on the road, so they might be better off if this game were at Soldier Field. The Rams defense allows 118 yards rushing per game, so Matt Forte should have a big game for Da Bears.

Prediction: Chicago 28, St. Louis 24

New York Jets (5-5) at Baltimore (4-6), Baltimore favored by 3 1/2

Geno Smith is laughably bad when playing on the road. For the season Smith has thrown 8 TDs and 16 INTs, and is turning the ball over at even more absurd rate than Mark Sanchez was. Matt Simms has looked smooth and confident when replacing Smith in games, so if Smith struggles in Baltimore we could see Simms sooner than when the game is out of hand. It has been a tough season for the defending Super Bowl champions but they still remain a strong team at home. They also received a ray of hope (get it!?!?) last week as Ray Rice finally ran the ball well. Including this game Baltimore plays their next three at home and each is a winnable game. The Ravens season will be made or broken over these next three weeks.

Prediction: Baltimore 31, New York Jets 14

Jacksonville (1-9) at Houston (2-8), Houston favored by 10

Vegas thinks so little of Jacksonville that they are making the Texans, losers of eight straight game, double digit favorites. I do agree that Houston won't lose fourteen straight to close the season, so it stands to reason this will finally be the game they pick up a win. I have no idea what Gary Kubiak was doing, yanking Case Keenum last week against the Raiders, inserting Matt Schaub, but then once again saying Keenum is his starter. Case has played well, you're playing out the string at this point, let the kid get some valuable experience. The Jags did finally score some touchdowns at home, so things have been looking up for them!

Prediction: Houston 28, Jacksonville 21

Tennessee (4-6) at Oakland (4-6), Oakland favored by 1

Last week against the Colts, Ryan Fitzpatrick looked determined to best Alex Smith in the game of human check down. The biggest beneficiary of that was former 49er Delanie Walker. With how awful the 49ers pass offense has been this season, I wish they would have found the money to keep Walker. The Raiders kept their season very much alive by winning in Houston last weekend. Even more surprising was that Matt McGloin played excellent in his first career start. McGloin was a terrible college quarterback until Bill O'Brien showed up his senior year. His college career was similar to Carson Palmer, as many people forget that Palmer was mostly useless in college until his senior year. McGloin versus Fitzpatrick is the least sexy quarterback matchup in a long time, but I'm going with the ginger.

Prediction: Oakland 25, Tennessee 23

Indianapolis (7-3) at Arizona (6-4), Arizona favored by 2

Bruce Arians faces the team he led to the playoffs last season. It is a good road team versus a good home team. The Cardinals have quietly snuck their way right into the wild card race and are nipping at the 49ers heels in the NFC West. Carson Palmer has been better during the team's three game winning streak, throwing 6 TDs and 2 INTs. Donald Brown is clearly the better back over Trent Richardson and it seems like the Colts are finally starting to feed him the ball more. Brown will have his work cut out for him, as the Cardinals rank second in the league against the run. Richardson would have his work cut out for him trying to run on me, so expect him to have no problem falling to the ground immediately against Arizona. Andrew Luck continues to play well despite not having Reggie Wayne and Darrius Heyward-Bey not being able to catch anything thrown his way. I think this will end up being one of the best games this weekend, with a late Jay Feely field goal being the difference.

Prediction: Arizona 27, Indianapolis 24

Dallas (5-5) at New York Giants (4-6), New York Giants favored by 2 1/2

In typical Giants fashion, just when New York looked dead they have won four straight and are just a game and a half out of first in the NFC East. If they win this week, they will move into a tie for second and just a game back of the Eagles. The biggest reason for the Giants winning streak hasn't been Eli Manning but the Giants defense. The Giants have given up just 47 points in their last four games and guys like Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck are playing like their old selves. The offense has been helped by the return of Andre Brown at the running back position, allowing Brandon Jacobs to slide back into a backup role. When we last saw the Cowboys they were being embarrassed on national television by the Saints. They will be without star LB Sean Lee in this game, but expect DeMarcus Ware to play. The Cowboys offense couldn't get anything going against the Saints and Tony Romo and the passing game have been off in their last couple of games. Maybe Miles Austin returning to action will help, but he seems to be a shell of his former self. The Cowboys will probably struggle running the ball as usual, putting too much pressure on Romo to make everything happen.

Prediction: New York Giants 26, Dallas 19

Denver (9-1) at New England (7-3), Denver favored by 2 1/2

Manning vs. Brady XIV is how this game has been billed. If you look past the battle of two of the best quarterbacks in history, it will also be a game between two really good teams. The question is, how much can the Patriots defense slow down Manning? The Broncos could be without both Wes Welker and Julius Thomas in this game, but even if they were, they still would have Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas as major weapons. The Broncos do play into the Patriots strengths on defense. The Patriots are a good cover team that struggles to stop the run. Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno has had a resurgent season, but the Broncos still rank just 20th in the league in rushing. They are a team that likes to throw and throw often. Both Brady and Manning are stationery quarterbacks that have thrived all of these years because of their abilities to get the ball out quickly and having excellent offensive lines. The Broncos secondary is not very good, so Brady could be in line for his second best game of the season, like the game he had against Pittsburgh a few weeks back. He has all of his weapons back and will be facing a vulnerable defense. I expect this game to be a shootout and will come down to who has the ball last. With two quarterbacks at this level and two good teams, not a ton separates them, but to me the Broncos have the slight edge over the Patriots.

Prediction: Denver 35, New England 31


Monday, November 25

San Francisco (6-4) at Washington (3-7), San Francisco favored by 5

Both of these teams are reeling and desperate for a win. For the 49ers the desperation is a little more as they still have very real playoff hopes. Any chances of winning the NFC West have probably gone by the wayside, so it is about getting that 5 or 6 seed, not that it makes that huge a difference. For Washington, they just want a win to clear out the buzzards that are swirling around their dead season. Predictably, the media has begun turning on their poster boy from last season, Robert Griffin III. There is nothing the media relishes more than propping someone up, tearing them down, and then propping them back up again. What has been disappointing but shouldn't have surprised me is the number of Redskins fans already turning on RG3. Skins fans are so reactionary and in the moment. Last year Griffin was the best quarterback the franchise had ever seen. Now this season, coming off a major surgery, and having no true off-season work, he has struggled and people are quitting on him. I'll be rooting for Robert to have a great career like I think he will have and make his doubters look silly. I won't be rooting for him this week though, especially since I will be there live for this one. The cure for what ails the 49ers offense may simply be playing the Redskins historically bad defense. Colin Kaepernick is experiencing similar struggles to Griffin. The 49ers fanbase hasn't turned on Kap, but it has been disconcerting how much he has struggled this season. However, I think I underestimated how much Kap would miss Michael Crabtree. Thank goodness they traded for Anquan Boldin, because without him it would just be Vernon Davis and no one else for Kap to throw to. The Skins leaky secondary should open up plenty of things for Davis and Boldin and hopefully Kap can have his first real big game since the opener. The Redskins offense has been hit or miss most games, not usually able to put together a strong game. They will play well in spurts, mostly this relates to the passing game because Alfred Morris has been very good running the ball this season. Much like Kap, Griffin hasn't had a number two receiver step up. Leonard Hankerson showed flashes but not enough consistency and he is now out for the season. Josh Morgan will have a chance to step up now against his former team, and maybe they will even get Fred Davis out of mothballs. The 49ers are a better team than the Redskins, especially defensively and that should be the way to victory.

Prediction: San Francisco 30, Washington 20

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-6-3
Overall Against the Spread: 80-75-7

Last Week Straight Up: 11-4
Overall Straight Up: 111-51

Cram Session - Week 13

Thursday, November 21

New Orleans (8-2) at Atlanta (2-8)

It is almost mind boggling how terrible the Atlanta Falcons are this season. They definitely had their share of injuries but so did many other teams in the NFL. If people didn't realize just how important Julio Jones is to this team, then check out Matt Ryan's stats since Jones has gone down. Harry Douglas has played pretty well in his increased role, but without Jones and Roddy White during a stretch, Ryan has looked really bad. The Saints are coming off a fraduy win over the 49ers where the refs protected Drew Brees to the point of absurdity from an Ahmad Brooks hit. The Saints need to keep winning as they have the Panthers hot on their tails in the NFC South. Before the season the NFL Network probably thought this would be their game of the year, but instead this should be a cakewalk victory for the Saints. The Falcons are atrocious on defense and let Mike Glennon go wild on them. Good luck trying to stop Brees.

Prediction: New Orleans 34, Atlanta 21


Games That Matter To Me

BYU (7-3) at Notre Dame (7-3)

After a week off following a horribly disappointing loss at Pitt, the Irish look to close out their home schedule in style against a tough BYU team. Basically, I can write 4 paragraphs about this game, but whether the Irish win or loss depends on which Tommy Rees will show up. Bad, very bad Tommy Rees was in Pittsburgh as he threw terrible interceptions and cost Notre Dame the game. Brian Kelly also has to take some blame, as he can't seem to settle on a running back. Freshman Tarean Folston seemed to have a breakout game against Navy, but then Kelly got him just 4 carries against Pitt. I understand having a backfield by committee but we are almost done with the season. its long past time to settle on at least a main guy from your committee.

BYU sophomore quarterback Taysom Hill has a lot of boom and bust in him. He has 16 TDs this season but has also thrown 12 INTs, and is coming off throwing 3 picks against Idaho State last week. While he has improved in recent weeks he also sometimes badly struggles with his accuracy. Opportunities will be there for the Irish defense to make plays off of Hill's mistakes. Where Hill could give the Irish major trouble is his ability to run the ball. He is the Cougars leading rusher, and in some games this season has run more than he has passed. Another threat running the ball for BYU is Jamaal Williams. Williams has rushed for over 100 yards in 2 of his last 3 games and averaged an absurd 10 yards per carry last week. I don't expect him to go off to that level against Notre Dame but the Irish defensive line has struggled with injuries all season. Hill's favorite receiver is Cody Hoffman, who leads the Cougars in catches, yards and touchdowns. He doesn't make short catches either, averaging a robust 17 yards per reception.

Big game for Notre Dame with having to go to Stanford next week in what is almost certainly a loss. 8-4 sounds a whole lot better than 7-5. Blind faith in my team is the reason I am going with the Irish to get the win on Senior Day.

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, BYU 27

Nebraska (7-3, 4-2) at Penn State (6-4, 3-3)

Nebraska is basically playing out the string at this point after last week's loss to Michigan State. Turnovers killed Nebraska, and has been an issue since Tommy Armstrong Jr. took over at quarterback. The Huskers defense isn't good enough to continuously bail out the offense when they shoot themselves in the foot. Ameer Abdullah has been spectacular and consistent all season, rushing for over 100 yards in every game but one, and in that game he missed it by 2 yards. I hope he doesn't get any thoughts of leaving early and will be back for his senior season next year. One player that needs to show up in Happy Valley is Quincy Enunwa, as he was held without a reception against the Spartans. Kenny Bell had a big game with Enunwa being shut out.

The Nittany Lions are similar to Nebraska in that they have a good offense and a mediocre to porous at times defense. They have to overall be pleased with the play of freshman quarterback Christian Hackenburg, who has 14 TDs and 9 INTs on the season. They also have a lethal, dual rushing attack in Bill Belton and touchdown machine Zach Zwinak. The player to watch is WR Allen Robinson. Robinson leads Penn State by a wide margin with 81 catches on the season, 1,204 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns. Robinson has gone over 100 yards receiving in six of Penn State's 10 games this season.

I originally was going to pick Nebraska, but going on the road and trying to slow down the Nittany Lions offense seems like too tall a task. I think that Penn State's poor defense can keep Nebraska in the game, but Armstrong just makes too many mistakes right now.

Prediction: Penn State 30, Nebraska 27


Top 10

Chattanooga (8-3) at #1 Alabama (10-0)

Bama seemed to still be thinking about their win over LSU from two weeks and not the task at hand as they slept walk to victory at Mississippi State last week. They could literally be asleep for this game against Chattanooga and win, but coach Nick Saban will have his guys ready to play after a disappointing showing. Alabama just wants to stay healthy for next week's Iron Bowl, which will determine their season.

Prediction: Alabama 48, Chattanooga 3

Idaho (1-9) at #2 Florida State (10-0)

If Jameis Winston and the Seminoles were distracted by the sexual assault investigation involving him, they didn't show it winning by a score of 59-3 for the second straight week last weekend. The Seminoles look destined to play for the national championship with the easy remaining schedule they have left. I mean, they could end up playing freaking Duke for the ACC title.

Prediction: Florida State 66, Idaho 0

Indiana (4-6, 2-4) at #3 Ohio State (10-0, 6-0)

Urban Meyer can bitch about the BCS all he wants, the truth of the matter is, the Buckeyes haven't been impressive against inferior opponents like Florida State has. However, they still are very much alive to have a chance to play for the national title with Alabama's remaining schedule being tough. There is no question about the effectiveness of the Buckeyes offense, but their defense hasn't appeared championship level at times this season. It won't matter against Indiana, but could matter against Michigan and Michigan State when they play the Spartans for the Big Ten championship.

Prediction: Ohio State 58, Indiana 21

#4 Baylor (9-0, 6-0) at #10 Oklahoma State (9-1, 6-1)

Baylor was on the ropes last week against Texas Tech, falling behind 14-0, before coming back to completely destroy the Red Raiders, 63-34. Now, they face their toughest road test of the season, in Stillwater against the Cowboys, winners of six straight since a mystifying loss to West Virginia. Both teams have very good offenses, but they also have accomplished defenses. The depth that Baylor has is what might be most impressive about the Bears. While missing their two leading rushers last week, Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin, third string back Shock Linwood seamlessly moved in and rushed for 187 yards. The good news for the Bears is that Martin should play and Seastrunk is working hard to be able to suit up Saturday. One player that won't be returning is WR Tevin Reese, who they lost for the season a few weeks ago. That didn't seem to matter last week either since they still have leading receiver Antwan Goodley. Bears QB Bryce Petty hasn't thrown an interception in 5 weeks and has just one the entire season.

The Cowboys made a midseason switch at quarterback from sophomore J.W. Walsh to senior Clint Chelf. Chelf hasn't always been flashy, but his rushing ability has overcome any mental mistakes he might make. The Cowboys offense as a whole doesn't have the flash that the Baylor offense has, but they haven't needed it with how well their defense has played, especially the last two weeks. No defense has managed to slow down the Bears, except maybe Kansas State's, and that was also a road game for Baylor. I picked against Baylor two weeks ago when they played Choklahoma and was way off, but I am still going to pick against them again this week. I just can't envision Baylor going the entire season unbeaten, and this looks like the prime spot for them to lose. Facing a hot team, in prime time, on the road. If Baylor wins this game, I won't pick against them the rest of the season. I like the Cowboys defense to make enough plays and Chelf to do enough damage running that Okie State pulls off the upset.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 33, Baylor 30

#5 Oregon (9-1, 6-1) at Arizona (6-4, 3-4)

The Ducks caught a break as Stanford was upset by USC, opening the door for Oregon to play for the Pac-12 championship, if they can take care of business in their final two games. After being 6-2, Rich Rod's Wildcats could be looking at four straight losses to close out the season since they go to Arizona State next week. A loss to Oregon would be their third straight home loss as they have lost heartbreakers to UCLA and Washington State the last two weeks. Like most teams that have faced the Ducks, the Wildcats will find the Oregon offense too overwhelming a force to match.

Prediction: Oregon 52, Arizona 24

Citadel (5-6) at #7 Clemson (9-1)

Clemson has rebounded well from the devastating home loss to Florida State and could still be in line to play in a BCS bowl if they beat South Carolina next week. This week's game against Citadel should serve as a tuneup to work out some kinks and get everyone out healthy.

Prediction: Clemson 53, Citadel 17

#8 Missouri (9-1, 5-1) at #24 Mississippi (7-3, 3-3)

How many people had this one picked as a marquee game when looking over the schedule in August? If the Tigers can beat Ole Miss on the road this week and the Johnny Manziel's at home in the regular season finale, they will play for the SEC Championship. Pretty amazing that the Tigers are in this position for a few reasons. One is that they lost their best player, QB James Franklin for a few weeks and had to replace him with freshman Maty Mauk. Mauk filled in more than capably in Franklin's absence. He was the starter during the Tigers demoralizing defeat against South Carolina. I thought that might derail Missouri's season but the team has responded well the last two weeks, winning in blowouts. Franklin returns this week and it will be interesting to see if he shows signs of rust. Ole Miss saved their season when they upset LSU at home a month ago. That win ended a three game losing streak and the Rebels haven't lost since. QB Bo Wallace hasn't received a lot of attention but has been excellent for the Rebels this season.

Like Baylor, maybe it is because Missouri isn't a traditional power, but I think they are primed for an upset loss this weekend. They might almost be better sticking with Mauk at this point, as I think Franklin will struggle a bit in his first game in a month. This Missouri loss will open the door for the Gamecocks to make it to the SEC title game.

Prediction: Mississippi 31, Missouri 24

California (1-10, 0-8) at #9 Stanford (8-2, 6-2)

A disappointing loss to USC means the Cardinal will likely miss out on defending their Pac-12 championship. Cal has had an awful season, with only their passing game proving to be anything they hope to build off of next season. This is of course known as The Big Game, but only these two teams fanbases will care about this game on Saturday.

Prediction: Stanford 44, California 7

Last Week: 9-1
Overall: 97-17

The Hail Mary - Week 11

Sunday, November 17

Washington (3-6) at Philadelphia (5-5), Philadelphia favored by 3

It seems like I have been saying this every week for the past month, but this Sunday is really do or die for the Redskins season. If they lose this game they will fall 2 1/2 games out of first place, and really 3 1/2 since the Eagles would have swept the season series. The Eagles probably wish this game was in Washington, as they have lost 10 straight games at home. To me, everything is lining up just right for the Redskins to be the team the Eagles break that streak against. Nick Foles incredible run continued last week against Green Bay, as he threw three more touchdowns and no interceptions, upping his season total to 16 TDs and 0 INTs. The Redskins have been saying all week that they will be prepared this time around for Chip Kelly's offense, but they were saying that before the season opener as well. The Eagles defense has been playing better as of late, even when the Eagles could do nothing on offense, so Philly might be coming together as a football team at the right time. Redskins fans hanging their hat on a turnaround this season because it happened last year need to get with reality. The defense seemingly can't stop any quarterback, so I expect Foles to have another impressive day and Philly to drive a stake through the heart of the Redskins playoff chances.

Prediction: Philadelphia 28, Washington 23

New York Jets (5-4) at Buffalo (3-7), Buffalo favored by 1

Ed Reed wasn't out of work long. Rex Ryan, his former defensive coordinator in Baltimore picked up the safety and Reed may make his debut for the Jets on Sunday. Believe it or not the Jets currently sit all alone in the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC. The Bills are starting at another playoff-less season and will be looking to develop EJ Manuel the rest of the season and play the role of spoiler. The Jets, especially QB Geno Smith have had their share of troubles on the road with turnovers, and I think Mario Williams will make some plays that will carry Buffalo to a win.

Prediction: Buffalo 23, New York Jets 17

Baltimore (4-5) at Chicago (5-4), Chicago favored by 3

Jay Cutler came back sooner than anyone thought and then was promptly hurt again, meaning Josh McCown is back in the saddle as the Bears starter on Sunday. McCown has been very good any time he has played for Cutler this season so I don't expect the Bears to miss a beat. The Ravens held on to beat Cincinnati at home last weekend, but the road has been a different story for them this season. The Bears are banged up and not very good on defense, but the Ravens don't have an offense that will be able to exploit those weaknesses. The Ravens have to be hoping that Ray Rice's struggles this season are just a mirage and not a sign of an impending decline.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Baltimore 17

Cleveland (4-5) at Cincinnati (6-4), Cincinnati favored by 6 1/2

The Bengals goal in this game will not only be to win but to actually score a touchdown this time against the Browns stingy defense. Jason Campbell has been a breath of fresh air for the Browns offense since he was inserted for the putrid Brandon Weeden. The Bengals have had some tough road losses the past two weeks so they will be excited to return home. Especially Andy Dalton, who has struggled badly in the Bengals two straight losses. This will be a tough, defensive battle, and likely will come down to whichever team has the ball last winning the game.

Prediction: Cincinnati 18, Cleveland 15

Detroit (6-3) at Pittsburgh (3-6), Detroit favored by 2

Last week's win over the Bears at Soldier Field was a statement win for the Lions. With Aaron Rodgers out indefinitely for the Packers, the Lions appear to be the front runners in the NFC North. They have another tough road test this weekend at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh has won two straight games at home, and their defense has been especially stingy in those games. However, they haven't faced a combo like Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson in those games. I also think the Lions pass rush could have a field day chasing after Ben Roethlisberger and expect Ndamukong Suh to make his presence felt. If anyone has any doubts left about the Lions, another road win this weekend will squash them.

Prediction: Detroit 30, Pittsburgh 23

Atlanta (2-7) at Tampa Bay (1-8), Atlanta favored by 1

Yuck.

Prediction: Atlanta 25, Tampa Bay 21

Arizona (5-4) at Jacksonville (1-8), Arizona favored by 6 1/2

I thought Jacksonville was on their way to being the second team to finish 0-16 but lo and behold they went to Tennessee and beat the Titans. Next step, score a touchdown in a home game at Jacksonville, something they have not yet done. I expect that streak to fall as well, but I don't expect this to be the start of a winning culture for the Jaguars. Not when their offense takes on the talented Cardinals defense, especially that secondary. Offensively, Arizona has to find a way to get Andre Ellington the ball more. I am not just saying that because I have him on multiple fantasy teams either. Rashard Mendenhall has nothing left in the tank, and the Cardinals could take a lot of pressure off mistake prone Carson Palmer if they ride with Ellington more. The Cardinals are quietly creeping up on the 49ers and could be a factor in the playoff race in the last few months of the season.

Prediction: Arizona 35, Jacksonville 14

Oakland (3-6) at Houston (2-7), Houston favored by 7

Another putrid game on this weekend's schedule. I don't think the Texans are going to finish 2-14 and with how well Case Keenum has played since becoming the starter, they seem due for a victory. The shine is starting to come off Terrelle Pryor who is struggling mightily to get the Raiders passing game going. Maybe the return of Gary Kubiak to the sidelines will inspire the Texans to victory.

Prediction: Houston 30, Oakland 24

San Diego (4-5) at Miami (4-5), San Diego favored by 1 1/2

A key AFC matchup between two teams trying to stay in the race for the final playoff spot in the AFC. The Dolphins had a terrible loss at Tampa last weekend, and of course everyone blamed it on the controversy surrounding the team. However, the Dolphins had the lead late in that game and it simply came down to them not executing on offense or defense. They couldn't run the ball at all and Ryan Tannehill is not skilled enough to carry the offense without help. Maybe Mike Wallace can make an appearance in this game against the porous Chargers secondary. I am just not sure if the offensive line will be able to keep Tannehill upright enough, and the Dolphins are really trending downwards right now.

Prediction: San Diego 26, Miami 23

San Francisco (6-3) at New Orleans (7-2), New Orleans favored by 3

The 49ers struggles in the passing game reared their ugly head last week in a disappointing loss to Carolina. The passing game is the worst in the NFL and it is hard to figure out if it is Colin Kaepernick regressing, or the fact that the 49ers receivers aren't very good. Vernon Davis left the game early with a concussion and anytime he has been out this season, the 49ers can get nothing going through the air. Michael Crabtree can't come back soon enough. The Saints put on an offensive and defensive clinic last Sunday night, and are looking unbeatable in the Superdome. The 49ers defense is going to have win this game for San Francisco, by creating turnovers and short fields for the offense. Unfortunately, I don't believe the defense is at the level they were a couple years ago, and I think Drew Brees and his many weapons will be too much.

Prediction: New Orleans 29, San Francisco 20

Minnesota (2-7) at Seattle (9-1), Seattle favored by 13

Seattle got a nice, dominant win over Atlanta last week after two straight underwhelming wins. They could just about clinch the NFC West with a win and a Niners loss on Sunday. Christian Ponder had one of the best games of his career last weekend against Washington, but the competition steps up considerably on Sunday. The Seahawks have struggled at times to stop the run so I feel like Adrian Peterson can make some plays happen and keep the Vikings within shouting distance. There is a chance that former Vikings WR Percy Harvin will make his Seahawks debut in this game. Even without Harvin, the Seahawks could just give it to Marshawn Lynch all game and they would beat the Vikings.

Prediction: Seattle 35, Minnesota 24

Green Bay (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6), New York Giants favored by 6 1/2

Aaron Rodgers is making it plain as day that he is clearly the MVP of the league. The Packers offense looks like the Colts offense did two years ago when they didn't have Peyton Manning. They finally signed Matt Flynn after losing Seneca Wallace for the season, but Scott Tolzein, who was on the practice squad a few weeks ago, will be the starter for now. The Giants have a great chance to win their fourth straight after an 0-6 start. I don't think they are particularly good, they just have benefited from a break in their schedule. Their run game will be drastically improved, as shown last week with the return of Andre Brown. The Packers don't have a good enough defense to compensate for their offensive struggles. They are lucky that Eddie Lacy has been as good as he has, because with no run game, they would be getting blown out each week. Eli Manning will do something stupid to keep the Packers in the game, but the Giants should hold on for the win.

Prediction: New York Giants 27, Green Bay 20

Kansas City (9-0) at Denver (8-1), Denver favored by 8 1/2

The schedule makers had no idea when they put the schedule together that this game would be so huge, but it has added to the buildup that these teams beasts are meeting for the first time in Week 11. It is Denver's high octane offense against Kansas City's beast of a defense. Peyton Manning was hobbling at the end of last week's game and it looked like for a second the Chiefs would once again get to face a backup quarterback. But Peyton insists he will play and the Chiefs defense will have to be ready for their biggest challenge yet. I think the Chiefs can hold Denver to their lowest offensive output so far this season, but Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles are going to have do their part if Kansas City will have a chance to pull off the upset. Charles should be as good as ever, but Alex Smith might get exposed on a national stage. He has been riding the coat tails of the defense all season long, much like he did in San Francisco. He still isn't someone you can ask to go out and win a game for you. Also, KC might want to keep tabs on Dwayne Bowe, considering he will be in Colorado and could have plenty of access to marijuana. The Chiefs are good, but they aren't well rounded enough of a team to beat Denver, especially on the road.

Prediction: Denver 26, Kansas City 22


Monday, November 18

New England (7-2) at Carolina (6-3), Carolina favored by 2

Another excellent prime time game will be on Monday night between the Patriots and Panthers. This could prove to be another offense versus defense battle, as the Patriots offense showed some life two weeks ago, while the Panthers defense has looked dominant during the team's five game winning streak. I wasn't sold on Carolina but after watching last week's game, that is a championship defense they have over there. While the offense isn't great, its not like Cam Newton is Alex Smith or anything. I'm not ready to believe that because they obliterated Pittsburgh, now the New England offense and especially Tom Brady are going to roll the clock back to 2007. The Steelers defense is old and leaky, the Panthers are very young on defense and I think it could be a very frustrating night for Brady and company. The Panthers are equally as stout against the run, so it will be interesting to watch how effective the Patriots offense can be. I expect another huge win for the Panthers and their bandwagon to start to get full.

Prediction: Carolina 20, New England 17


Last Week Against the Spread: 8-6
Overall Against the Spread: 74-69-4

Last Week Straight Up: 8-6
Overall Straight Up: 100-47

Cram Session - Week 12

Thursday, November 14

Indianapolis (6-3) vs. Tennessee (4-5), Indianapolis favored by 3


Prediction: Indianapolis 34, Tennessee 20


Games That Matter To Me

#16 Michigan State (8-1, 5-0) at Nebraska (7-2, 4-1)


Prediction: Michigan State 19, Nebraska 16


Top 10

Thursday, November 14

Georgia Tech (6-3, 5-2) at #8 Clemson (8-1, 6-1)


Prediction: Clemson 35, Georgia Tech 20


Saturday, November 16

#1 Alabama (9-0, 6-0) at Mississippi State (4-5, 1-4)


Prediction: Alabama 40, Mississippi State 13

Syracuse (5-4, 3-2) at #2 Florida State (9-0, 7-0)


Prediction: Florida State 48, Syracuse 14

#3 Ohio State (9-0, 5-0) at Illinois (3-6, 0-5)


Prediction: Ohio State 52, Illinois 24

#4 Stanford (8-1, 6-1) at USC (7-3, 4-2)


Prediction: Stanford 28, USC 24

Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3) vs #5 Baylor (8-0, 5-0) in Arlington, Texas


Prediction: Baylor 54, Texas Tech 34

Utah (4-5, 1-5) at #6 Oregon (8-1, 5-1)


Prediction: Oregon 49, Utah 17

#25 Georgia (6-3, 4-2) at #7 Auburn (9-1, 5-1)


Prediction: Auburn 42, Georgia 34

Florida (4-5, 3-4) at #10 South Carolina (7-2, 5-2)


Prediction: South Carolina 27, Florida 17

Last Week: 4-4
Overall: 88-16

The Hail Mary - Week 10

Sunday, November 10

Philadelphia (4-5) at Green Bay (5-3), Green Bay favored by 2 1/2

These two teams perfectly capture just how much the landscape can change in the NFL on a week to week basis. Before last week's game the Eagles had been held without a touchdown on offense in back to back games. There was talk about how much of a failure the Chip Kelly offense had been, and how the Eagles needed to find their franchise quarterback. Then Nick Foles goes out and ties an NFL record by throwing 7 TD passes. He now has 13 TDs and 0 INTs this year, which are Peyton Manning like numbers. For Green Bay, their season went up in the air in an instant as soon as Aaron Rodgers was sacked and fractured his collarbone. The Packers had already been besieged by injuries, but with Rodgers under center they were able to overcome them. Sticking Seneca Wallace under center doesn't have quite the same affect. The Packers could be without Rodgers for at least a month, which to me meant they would give Matt Flynn a call. He knows the system and has performed well in the system when given a chance. However, no call to Flynn has been made, so Mike McCarthy seems content to go with Wallace right now. Normally, I wouldn't give Philly a chance in Lambeau, but without Rodgers the look of the Packers offense changes considerably. Eddie Lacy should have another big game, but I think the Packers passing game will struggle yet again. Foles won't have a monster game like last week, but I expect him to be solid.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Green Bay 20

Seattle (8-1) at Atlanta (2-6), Seattle favored by 6 1/2

A rematch of last season's classic NFC Divisional Round game. Quite a bit has changed since that January afternoon, as the Falcons have imploded and the Seahawks are currently the best team in the NFC. Matt Ryan has struggled mightily the last two weeks without his top two receivers. There is a chance Roddy White will be back Sunday, which would be fun to see him renew his rivalry with Richard Sherman. The Seahawks have looked vulnerable the last two weeks, barely beating crappy teams St. Louis and Tampa Bay. The 49ers would love for the Seahawks to drop a game ahead of their matchup with each other but I think that on Sunday the Seahawks will once again find a way to slither away with a victory. Marshawn Lynch should have a big day for Seattle against the Falcons poor run defense.

Prediction: Seattle 30, Atlanta 24

Detroit (5-3) at Chicago (5-3), No Line

Jay Cutler' has been cleared and appears set to start on Sunday for the Bears. The Bears seem to have finally gotten their backup quarterback situation right. Josh McCown has been solid since having to step in for Cutler. Whoever starts for Chicago in this game, I like the Bears to win at home. The Lions offense doesn't seem to be as crisp on the road, so I don't expect Reggie Bush and Matthew Stafford to go off like they did when these teams played in Detroit. The Bears offensive line has been playing well, so that should mitigate the impact that Ndamukong Suh and that Lions defensive line will have on the game.

Prediction: Chicago 28, Detroit 21

Jacksonville (0-8) at Tennessee (4-4), Tennessee favored by 13

I watched this special on Discovery channel that focused on the Jaguars/Niners game in London and it was amazing how positive Jaguars coach Gus Bradley remains. His father had just died, his football team is atrocious, but the guys kept smiling. The players seem to really like him, unfortunately, if they don't start winning games he won't be around much longer. You couldn't pay me to pick the Jaguars in a game right now. The AFC South is down to the Colts and Titans right now, so games like these are must win for Tennessee.

Prediction: Tennessee 35, Jacksonville 16

St. Louis (3-6) at Indianapolis (6-2), Indianapolis favored by 10

I was not as fast as others to jump on the Andrew Luck bandwagon, but I'd have to be a fool to not recognize that he has proven himself as a top tier quarterback this season. He could still stand to raise that completion percentage, but he has cut way down on the turnovers this season. The way he helped bring the Colts back at Houston last weekend was highly impressive. The Rams are still competing hard but don't have the players on offense to consistently win games. However, it had to be nice for them to see Zac Stacy break out last weekend against a tough defense in Tennessee. If Stacy can run consistently well that will take a lot of pressure off of Kellen Clemens. Plus, their young defense has been up and down all season. I expect them to stay within shouting distance of Indianapolis but for Luck and the Colts to win again.

Prediction: Indianapolis 31, St. Louis 22

Oakland (3-5) at New York Giants (2-6), New York Giants favored by 7 1/2

Despite being 2-6, the Giants remain very much a part of the NFC East race. They go for their third straight victory against a struggling Oakland offense. Terrelle Pryor has had his moments but hasn't been able to consistently get the Raiders passing game to produce. Darren McFadden is once again injured, so the Raiders will have to get something going with the passing game to have a chance on Sunday. After the way Foles lit up the Raiders secondary, Eli Manning has to be licking his chops. The Giants will also receive a boost to their run game, as RB Andre Brown is expected to make his debut and split carries with Brandon Jacobs and Peyton Hills.

Prediction: New York Giants 32, Oakland 25

Buffalo (3-6) at Pittsburgh (2-6), Pittsburgh favored by 3 1/2

The Steelers season reached a new low last week when they allowed 55 points to the Patriots. The Steelers just aren't very good and age has seemed to catch up to the team in critical positions. The Bills will have E.J. Manuel back, which is good news after Jeff Tuel time had to start for them last week. These teams are about equal in my opinion talent wise, so if in doubt, go with the homefield advantage.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Buffalo 17

Cincinnati (6-3) at Baltimore (3-5), Cincinnati favored by 1 1/2

I have to say, I am feeling pretty good about myself as the Ravens are proving me right in my belief that they would be pretty bad this season. They are halfway to the 6-10 mark I predicted for them. All the problems I expected with trying to have Joe Flacco carry your offense with no weapons are coming to fruition. I guess one thing that has been stunning is how terrible a player Ray Rice has been this season. Some of it is the fault of a poor offensive line, but Rice is an explosive back, sometimes you have to make plays happen on your own. The Bengals are the best of a bad division, which is good news for them as they are losing players to injuries on the defense at an alarming rate. Geno Atkins was the latest to go down, and Andy Dalton proved that talk of his ascension to elite might have been premature with a poor performance against Miami. The Ravens aren't good but they are still a tough team to beat at home. With all the injuries facing the Bengals defense, I think Flacco and company can make enough plays to keep their season alive for now.

Prediction: Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 20

Carolina (5-3) at San Francisco (6-2), San Francisco favored by 6

Pinto vs. Hirsch. My most loyal reader Matt Pinto has got to be filled with joy over the four game winning streak his Panthers are on. They pushed the Falcons aside last week and have made the NFC South a two team race between themselves and the Saints. However, plenty of doubters of the Panthers still remain. They rightfully point out that the four teams the Panthers have beaten during this streak are a combined 6-27. But this Sunday in San Francisco, we will get a true barometer of just how much Carolina has improved. The biggest improvement for Carolina from last season is that they are back to being able to run the ball effectively. That will be a difficult task against the 49ers, who are 12th in the league against the run. The 49ers defense is also expected to have Aldon Smith back for this game. The 49ers got some good news during their bye week, as Mario Manningham should be back for this game, and Michael Crabtree has begun passing. They could use all the help they can get for their passing game which ranks dead last in the NFL. That hasn't really mattered though because their rushing game is first in the league and Frank Gore is once again averaging over 4 yards per carry. The Panthers are second in the league against the rush, so Colin Kaepernick may have to make more plays with his arm this game than he has been used to having to do this season. I'm a wait and see type of guy and until the Panthers beat teams with a pulse, I'm not buying what they're selling.

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Carolina 17

Houston (2-6) at Arizona (4-4), Arizona favored by 2 1/2

Case Keenum appears to be the truth. Matt Schaub should get used to that spot on the bench and stop with his Alex Smith impersonation of wearing his helmet on the sidelines like he might go in at any minute. Keenum lit up the Colts in the first half, but then him and his teammates let down in the second half, mostly because they were worried about the health of their coach Gary Kubiak. Wade Phillips is taking over as the interim coach, but I don't expect him to change the Texans fortunes. Whatever mojo the Texans had the last few years appears gone, and their defense especially isn't making key stops. The Cardinals are a tough team to beat in Arizona, and with emerging running back Andre Ellington, they hopefully won't have to ask Carson Palmer to make too many plays.

Prediction: Arizona 26, Houston 21

Denver (7-1) at San Diego (4-4), Denver favored by 7

The Chargers are coming off a brutal loss at Washington. Any time you have first and goal at the 1 to win the game, then you should win the game. It was curious to me how Ryan Mathews disappeared from the gameplan. He was running pretty well against Washington in the first half, but then the Chargers went exclusively with Danny Woodhead in the backfield. Denver starts the second half of their season without their head coach, John Fox. Fox had to have heart surgery, so Jack Del Rio is taking over in place of him. Let's be hones though, Del Rio will still command the defense, but Peyton Manning is the coach of the offense. We will learn a lot about just how good the Broncos are these next few weeks, with their next five games being against teams that are .500 or better. The Chargers porous secondary is going to be in trouble with Denver's multiple wideout sets. Philip Rivers will probably throw for a ton of yards, but I don't think the Chargers will achieve the balance on offense necessary to beat Denver.

Prediction: Denver 35, San Diego 27

Dallas (5-4) at New Orleans (6-2), New Orleans favored by 7

It is always fun when these two teams get together. Expect lots of points, and a lot of passing, with very little rushing attempts in between. The Saints are coming off a highly disappointing performance against the Jets and the offense especially struggled. Brees made a few too many careless passes with the ball and obviously missed the presence of Darren Sproles and Marques Colston. Colston and Sproles are both questionable for this game, but if Colston does play, the Saints have to hope that he and Brees can get back on the same page. Jimmy Graham has been excellent but the Saints need their other wideouts like Kenny Stills, Lance Moore, and Robert Meachem to be more consistent. The Cowboys got DeMarco Murray back but still seem to avoid running the ball like it is a virus. Without a run game, Dallas will continue to be the average team they have been for so long. The Cowboys number one objective either via the draft or free agency should be to complement Tony Romo with a top flight running back.

Prediction: New Orleans 41, Dallas 27


Monday, November 11

Miami (4-4) at Tampa Bay (0-8), Miami favored by 2 1/2

The Dolphins have a game this weekend? You wouldn't know it based on all the talk surrounding the team concerning Richie Incognito's alleged bullying of Jonathan Martin. I think what has surprised me the most about this whole ordeal is the fact that Incognito called Martin the n word and yet people are still defending Incognito. Remember when Riley Cooper got caught saying the n word and people wanted him kicked out of the league? Why do people seem to care so little about Incognito saying it? It is hard to really have a firm opinion on this because no one outside of the locker room knows these guys relationship and what led up to Martin freaking out and leaving the team. I do know that the voice mail Incognito left went way too far, but I also think it was poor form on Martin's part to walk out on his teammates in the middle of a season. Coach Joe Philbin has to make sure that his players don't get too distracted by all the noise around them and are ready to focus on Tampa. Tampa proved that despite their dismal record they are no walk over after nearly beating Seattle. I thought they had quit on Greg Schiano, but the effort they had last Sunday proved me wrong. The Bucs are hungry for a win and this is a dangerous game for Miami if they aren't ready to play. The Dolphins were already weak at offensive line and now are missing two starters from the line so Tannehill will really need to develop some wheels. The Dolphins run game has looked good the past two games, but they have to be ready for Bucs RB Mike James who gashed the Seahawks. I've already devoted entirely too many words to this game.

Prediction: Miami 24, Tampa Bay 21


Last Week Against the Spread: 5-8
Overall Against the Spread: 66-63-4

Last Week Straight Up: 8-5
Overall Straight Up: 92-41

Cram Session - Week 11

Thursday, November 7

Washington (3-5) at Minnesota (1-7), Washington favored by 2 1/2

San Diego had a first and goal at the 1 and the Redskins season appeared to be ending at the halfway mark. But then, the much maligned defense made three straight stops, and the Redskins eventually went on to win in overtime, keeping alive their hopes in the awful NFC East. The defense has received a lot of grief but they have forced takeaways in 12 straight games and have bailed the offense out a few times this season. Robert Griffin III still isn't the guy he was last year, especially his decision making, but he was bailed out a few times by Pierre Garcon, who made some ridiculous catches. The Redskins now have to travel to Minnesota on a short week and face a Vikings team desperate for a win. Minnesota is ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball and is playing for nothing but pride at this point. The Vikings outplayed the Cowboys in Dallas last week, but once again found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Adrian Peterson was running like the back we saw last season, refusing to be taken down. Christian Ponder played well enough to continue to make Josh Freeman a complete waste of a pick-up. The Vikings benefited from the Cowboys inability to run the ball, but the combo of Alfred Morris and Roy Helu should find plenty of holes and opportunities. Overall, Minnesota has been good against the run but they have also played a lot of poor rushing teams. Who knows, maybe even FB Darrel Young will continue his tear. The Vikings receiving corps is mediocre at best. If I am Washington I am more concerned about Cordarelle Patterson than I am Greg Jennings. The Vikings have typically been a good home team, but haven't won in the Metrodome yet this season, and have lost their last two games by double digits at home. The Redskins will lose if their offensive line struggles and lets Jared Allen get going. Also, with the struggles of their special teams, Patterson will have a chance to make some plays returning kicks. But otherwise, I think the Redskins are more talented than Minnesota and their strength of running the football will carry them to their first winning streak of the season. Plus, the Vikings terrible secondary could mean plenty of big plays for Garcon, Leonard Hankerson, and Jordan Reed.

Prediction: Washington 30, Minnesota 21


Games That Matter To Me

#23 Notre Dame (7-2) at Pittsburgh (4-4)

Notre Dame survived by the skin of their teeth against an underrated Navy team. Just ask Pittsburgh how good Navy is, since the Midshipmen beat the Panthers two weeks ago. The Irish are likely for another close one at Pitt on Saturday night. Last season Pittsburgh came very close to ruining Notre Dame's perfect season, before collapsing late at South Bend. The Irish defense struggled last weekend, which has to give hope to a Pitt offense that was horrific against Georgia Tech last week. The Panthers rushing attack has really struggled the last two weeks. After a 240 yard rushing performance against Old Dominion, Panthers RB Isaac Bennett has just 93 yards in his past two games. The struggles of the run game put too much pressure on QB Tom Savage. Savage is solid, and has two good targets in freshman Tyler Boyd, who exploded for 11 catches last week and senior Devin Street.

The revolving door that is the running back position at Notre Dame seems to have a new front runner, freshman Tarean Folston. Folston saw his first extended action of the season last week against Navy and delivered in spades, rushing for 140 yards and a touchdown. Maybe Folston can take command of the job, and then have Cam McDaniel and George Atkinson III serve as complements. Rees was back to his turnover happy self against Navy last week, but did complete his passes for a staggering 12 yards per pass. WR TJ Jones continues to be his favorite target and could be in line for some more big plays against the Panthers.

The Irish will struggle beacuse that is what they do almost every week. Pitt will give them a battle, especially being at home, but in the end, I think Notre Dame has too many playmakers on offense than the Pitt defense will be able to handle. The Irish defense hasn't been great but with Pittsburgh struggling to run the ball recently, hopefully they lock down Bennett.

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Pittsburgh 20

Nebraska (6-2, 3-1) at Michigan (6-2, 2-2)

Jordan Westerkamp joined Matt Davison in the annals of Nebraska history for memorable catches as he hauled in Robert Kellogg III's hail mary at the end of last week's game, saving Nebraska's season for the time being. I can't imagine how ugly things would have been in Lincoln this week for Bo Pelini if the Huskers had lost that game. Lost in the Hail Mary is the amazing play that Ameer Abdullah made to convert a 4th and 15 on that drive. He had to get about six or seven extra yards after the catch and fought his heart out to get them. The Huskers will probably have to say a bunch of Hail Mary's to win in Michigan this weekend. They will once again more than likely be without Taylor Martinez, which means Kellogg and Tommy Armstrong Jr. will probably split duties. The Huskers want to get the freshman Armstrong experience, but he has been terrible in his last two games, throwing interceptions in each. He does give the Huskers the threat of the run from the quarterback decision but Kellogg, a senior, makes better decisions with the football. For the Huskers to stay in the game Saturday, I think Kellogg has to see the majority of the snaps.

The Michigan offense will probably think its Christmas morning getting to play the Huskers mediocre defense a week after having to contend with the Michigan State Spartans beastly defense. Devin Gardner should be licking his chops, as versatile quarterbacks have given Nebraska fits this season. Where the Wolverines could be in trouble is if their offensive line plays another poor game. They haven't given Gardner a lot of time and haven't been finding many holes for senior RB Fitzgerald Toussaint. The player to watch on the outside is WR Jeremy Gallon. Gallon came back to Earth last week after his ridiculously dominating performance against Indiana, where he had 369 yards receiving. But he still managed to grab a catch for 35 yards and if Gardner has time to find him, I expect Gallon to make an impact against a questionable Nebraska secondary.

Even with Martinez I wouldn't pick Nebraska to win at Michigan so without him the chances of a win happening are pretty slim. To win the Huskers defense would have to force Gardner into fumbles and interceptions and the Nebraska offense would have to play mistake free football. Instead, I think the Huskers will get behind early, forcing the quiet Michigan fans to make some noise, and Kellogg and Armstrong will become overwhelmed by the setting. Throw in the fact that Michigan is 19-0 at home under coach Brady Hoke and Saturday feels like mission impossible for Nebraska.

Prediction: Michigan 35, Nebraska 27


Top 10

Thursday, November 7

#3 Oregon (8-0, 5-0) at #5 Stanford (7-1, 5-1)

Game of the week and maybe even game of the season takes place tonight in Palo Alto. So much is at stake in this game. The Pac-12 North, a chance to play for a national title, for the Ducks a chance at revenge for last season, and for the Cardinal a chance to prove their superiority in front of their fans. You have Oregon's 19-game road winning streak going up against Stanford's 13-game home winning streak. In fact, Stanford handed Oregon their last road loss, way back in 2009. Stanford not only wants to end that streak, they also want to end Oregon QB Marcus Mariota's streak of not throwing an interception this season. Stanford has forced a turnover in 33 straight games, and with their previous success against Brett Hundley and Keith Price, and the success they had against Mariota last season they feel they have what it takes to force him into mistakes. Stanford's defense hasn't allowed 30+ points in a game this season, while Oregon hasn't scored less than 40 in a game. Oregon came into their game with Stanford last year on a similar run and then was shut down, held to just 14 points. I don't expect history to repeat itself tonight. Oregon running back De'Anthony Thomas thinks Oregon should lay 40 on Stanford. I don't think they will reach 40 but they will come close. I think Oregon will be a better, more prepared team because of last season's loss. I expect the offensive line to do a better job protecting Mariota than they did in last season's game. Another difference will be the play of the Oregon defense. It will be up to them stop Stanford RB Tyler Gaffney from beating them. Stanford's quarterback, Kevin Hogan won't be able to beat them, but if Gaffney is able to get going like he has most of the season, the rest of the Stanford offense will feed off of that. The Ducks defense is overlooked, but when they win tonight, they will get the credit they deserve.

Prediction: Oregon 35, Stanford 21

#10 Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1) at #6 Baylor (7-0, 4-0)

The Baylor Bears have run roughshod over their first seven opponents but beginning tonight we will start to truly learn what they are made of. Starting tonight, Baylor's next three opponents are all ranked in the Top 25 in a slate of games that will either make or break Baylor's season. Baylor leads the nation in scoring, averaging an eye popping 63 points per game. However, against the Sooners on Saturday Baylor will face the 10th ranked defense in the country. That being said, the Sooners haven't seen an offense as versatile as Baylor's. As a defense you basically have to pick your poison because the chances of you stopping all of their studs, including QB Bryce Petty, RB Lache Seastrunk and receivers Antwan Goodley and Tevin Reese are slim. While not as prolific Oklahoma has some offensive weapons of their own, like QB Blake Bell who save for a poor performance against Texas has been excellent this season. With so many big time games this weekend, I don't feel like it would be smart to pick chalk in all of them. This game is the one that to me we are most likely to see a mini-upset. This stage will be bigger than most Baylor players are use to, and in an added wrinkle the pressure and expectations are on them. Kansas State slowed this offense earlier this year, and I think the Sooners are a much more talented team.

Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Baylor 35


Saturday, November 9

#13 LSU (7-2, 3-2) at #1 Alabama (8-0, 5-0)

To me this game lost some of its luster once LSU lost at Ole Miss a few weeks ago. LSU finally has an offense that might be able to penetrate the Alabama defense, but I don't think their defense will be able to get enough stops to keep the Tigers in this game. The Tigers won't lack motivation since the Tide have won the past two meetings, but motivation is an overrated storyline that the media likes to pump up. The Tide defense did struggle the last time they faced a very good quarterback, so Zach Mettenberger should go into this game with a high level of confidence. However, Mettenberger also badly struggled in his last SEC game and the running game also struggled to get anything going. The Tide's two-headed rushing attack of T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake could find plenty of holes to run through against the Tigers leaky defense. AJ McCarron hasn't thrown an interception in a month, which has helped the defense to be dominant as they haven't been put in any compromising situations. LSU would have to play a perfect game to beat Alabama on the road, and the Bama defense has improved considerably since September's game against the Aggies. That means mistakes will be made by Mettenberger and this game will resemble the 2012 National Championship game.

Prediction: Alabama 34, LSU 17

#2 Florida State (8-0, 6-0) at Wake Forest (4-5, 2-4)

Things started a little bit dicey for the Seminoles against Miami last weekend, but in the second half Florida State showed their superiority, pulling away to a blowout victory and vaulting back up to #2 in the BCS standings. QB Jameis Winston has been so good this year that the media was desperate to label him as facing adversity against Miami because he threw 2 interceptions. Nevermind that the Seminoles never trailed once in the game. The media won't be able to ascribe any ideas of adversity for Winston this weekend against Wake Forest. If the Seminoles keep playing as well as they have on both sides of the ball, nothing will stand in their way of an undefeated season.

Prediction: Florida State 48, Wake Forest 14

#8 Missouri (8-1, 4-1) at Kentucky (2-6, 0-4)

Last week was an impressive win for the Tigers against Tennessee. Not so much because they beat Tennessee, who isn't very good but because they showed no hangover effect from their devastating loss to South Carolina. That is the sign of a mature team, and one that knows they still control their own destiny in the SEC East. The next step they can take in their maturation process is by winning handily on the road against an inferior opponent.

Prediction: Missouri 33, Kentucky 16

#9 Auburn (8-1, 4-1) at Tennessee (4-5, 1-4)

The Tigers were impressive last week in a potential trap game against an underwhelming opponent on the road when they blasted Arkansas. They face a similar test Saturday when they face the Vols in Knoxville. The Vols have been a good home team, winning four of five games there, with the lone loss being a 3 point defeat against Georgia. This is the fifth straight week Tennessee has played a Top 15 team, so they are certainly battle tested. Their best chance to win this game is to put it in the passing hands of Tigers quarterback Nick Marshall. Auburn has been so successful this season because of their run game, especially the play of RB Tre Mason. The Vols surrendered 339 yards rushing at Missouri last week, so they will need a major improvement from the defense this weekend if they want any chances of springing the upset.

Prediction: Auburn 31, Tennessee 27

Last Week: 6-0
Overall: 84-12

The Hail Mary - Week 9

Sunday, November 3

Minnesota (1-6) at Dallas (4-4), Dallas favored by 10 1/2

The Cowboys reached a new low against Detroit last week in finding a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. However, if they lose to the hapless Vikings at home on Sunday, that would be an even lower point. Leslie Frazier hasn't decided yet between Josh Freeman and Christian Ponder as his starting quarterback. Not because they are both so tremendous, but because he can't figure out which one sucks less. Whoever starts, I don't think they will take advantage of the Cowboys having the worst pass defense in the league. The Vikings offensive gameplan needs to be more like last season's, just keep feeding Adrian Peterson no matter what. The Cowboys expect to have DeMarco Murray back for this game, another weapon that should feast on a porous Vikings defense. I would be shocked if Tony Romo doesn't at least pass for 300 yards, and Dez Bryant doesn't have a big game.

Prediction: Dallas 34, Minnesota 24

San Diego (4-3) at Washington (2-5), Line is pick em'

Do or die for the Redskins on Sunday against San Diego. The schedule lines up nicely for Washington the next three weeks with this winnable game at home against San Diego and then winnable home games on the road against Minnesota and Philadelphia. But if they fall to the Chargers Sunday, any talk of the playoffs can pretty much cease. Yes, I know they were 3-6 and made it last year, but runs like that don't happen every season. The Redskins passing offense was very bad last week, but they face a terrible Chargers secondary this weekend. The Chargers rush defense isn't much better so hopefully Kyle Shanahan leans on and sticks with Alfred Morris this week, something he didn't do when Morris was running well last weekend against Denver. The Redskins defense will likely be in for a long day trying to stop the San Diego passing attack. Philip Rivers might be the front runner for Comeback Player of the Year right now. He's turning guys like Eddie Royal and Keenan Allen into one of the best passing offenses in football. The Chargers have an inconsistent running game but against the putrid Redskins rushing defense Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews will have opportunities to break big runs. Robert Griffin III played his best game of the season at home two weeks ago, but with his left knee now hurting, he more than likely won't be able to do much running. But against the Chargers porous secondary I am confident Griffin can make plays passing and not necessarily have to run. It would be nice if Pierre Garcon became more involved in the offense, as he has been a somewhat forgotten man these last few weeks. As I have mentioned before, the Skins seem to perform best with their backs against the wall, and that is what I am counting on helping lead them to victory on Sunday.

Prediction: Washington 35, San Diego 31

Kansas City (8-0) at Buffalo (3-5), Kansas City favored by 3

Matt Flynn has fallen so far that the thought of him potentially starting this game instead of Thad Lewis has Bills fans concerned. Lewis is a 50/50 bet to start his week as he deals with sore ribs. The Chiefs are coming off another unimpressive win, this time over Cleveland, but you can't really argue with 8-0. The defense continues to be excellent and has made it irrelevant that the Chiefs have only topped 30 points once this season. These are the two best teams in the league at getting sacks so it should be a long day for whoever Buffalo starts, as well as for Alex Smith. I expect the Chiefs to be in another close game, but once again come away with the win.

Prediction: Kansas City 23, Buffalo 17

Tennessee (3-4) at St. Louis (3-5), Tennessee favored by 3

Jeff Fisher faces his former team for the first time, in a game that is must win for one of these teams to remain in playoff discussion. The Titans haven't won in a month and with their defense getting to face backup Kellen Clemens, this is as good a chance as any to get a win. The Rams defense has been much improved the last few weeks, but with Clemens under center now, they have no choice. Clemens played decently against Seattle but the offense still managed just three field goals, and couldn't get a touchdown at the end of the game. The Rams rushing attack finally showed some signs of life last week, as Zac Stacy is doing what Daryl Richardson couldn't and grinding out yards. I think the bye week will serve Jake Locker well and I expect a performance closer to what we saw from him the first four weeks, then what we saw against San Francisco a few weeks ago.

Prediction: Tennessee 27, St. Louis 14

New Orleans (6-1) at New York Jets (4-4), New Orleans favored by 5 1/2

Kind of surprised I haven't heard about any quotes going back and forth between Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and Jets coach Rex Ryan. Rex hasn't even bothered putting on a wig to look like his brother, and it was just Halloween! The New York Jets are the most Jekly and Hyde team in football. Some weeks they look like the worst team in football they were expected to be. Then other weeks, they pull wins out of their asses against the Patriots. This week against Drew Brees, I don't expect the Jets to be pulling off any upsets. Brees is coming off another 5 touchdown performance, and now has the most career 5 TD games in NFL history. The Jets made Andy Dalton look elite last week, so even if Brees isn't in the comfy confines of the Superdome, I still expect him and his many weapons to have big games.

Prediction: New Orleans 30, New York Jets 17

Atlanta (2-5) at Carolina (4-3), Carolina favored by 7 1/2

This is the Falcons last shot at salvaging their season, and it couldn't come against a worse team, the Panthers, winners of three straight. QB Cam Newton is back in the spotlight as during these three games he has been playing the best football of his NFL career. When faced with a better defense in the Cardinals last week, Matt Ryan crumpled and showed how much he misses Julio Jones and Roddy White. Now he faces the Panthers top 10 passing defense. Steven Jackson returned last week but was a non-factor and likely will be again this weekend against the Panthers second ranked rush defense. My most loyal reader Matt Pinto will be happy to see me picking his favorite team win another game.

Prediction: Carolina 25, Atlanta 20

Philadelphia (3-5) at Oakland (3-4), No Line for this Game

My, oh my, how far the Chip Kelly offense has fallen. After lighting up the Skins in the first half of the opener all the talk was about how his fast paced offense was going to revolutionize the game. Now, the offense can't even score touchdowns, held without a touchdown in back to back home losses to the Cowboys and Giants. The good news for Philadelphia is they are on the road this week, where they have won three games. Nick Foles will be making his third start of the season, and the Eagles hope they get the Foles that played so well against Tampa, and not the awful Foles that played against Dallas. They also need to get LaSean McCoy going again. McCoy still leads the league in rushing but has been a non-factor in the Eagles past two losses. The Eagles defense has been much better the past two weeks but they could have their work cut out for them if Terrelle Pryor starts running. Pryor passing would be much more to the Eagles liking since Pryor has struggled mightily in his past two games. Also, Raiders RB Darren McFadden has looked rejuvenated the last few weeks. The Eagles do have a good rush defense and a bad pass defense, so the Raiders sort of play into their hands. But with how off the offense has looked, I can't pick the Eagles to go into the black hole and pick up the victory.

Prediction: Oakland 24, Philadelphia 17

Tampa Bay (0-7) at Seattle (7-1), Seattle favored by 16 1/2

The Rams almost did the 49ers a huge favor by upsetting the Seahawks, but unfortunately the Seahawks managed to survive. Russell Wilson receives a lot of credit but it was obvious last week how dependent this offense is on Marshawn Lynch and how well he plays. With Lynch doing next to nothing, Wilson and the Seahawks offense was dreadful. The Bucs appeared to have quit on coach Greg Schiano, as the defense has given up more than 30 points in their last three games. Bucs quarterback Mike Glennon will be looking to outplay his former NC State teammate, Wilson. The chances of that happening would be slim as it is, but even more so in Seattle. Wilson lost Sidney Rice for the season, so he has got to be hoping that Percy Harvin is truly close to making his Seahawks debut.

Prediction: Seattle 37, Tampa Bay 17

Baltimore (3-4) at Cleveland (3-5), Baltimore favored by 2 1/2

Browns quarterback Jason Campbell actually played pretty well at Kansas City last week, keeping the Browns competitive. The Ravens are hoping that Ray Rice got a little healthier during the bye week and he will finally start to resemble the running back they are used to seeing. They also hope that history will be an indication of how this game will go, since Joe Flacco is 11-0 in his career against the Browns. Flacco will have his work cut out for his this time though, as the Browns have one of the best defensive units in football. With how much the Ravens have struggled to generate offense this year, it will be on their defense and special teams to make game changing plays. I'm not feeling much conviction in my pick of the Ravens but am supremely confident this game will be boring.

Prediction: Baltimore 19, Cleveland 16

Pittsburgh (2-5) at New England (6-2), New England favored by 7

Much like the Falcons and Redskins this game may serve as the Steelers last chance to save their season. All the good will they had generated in winning back to back games went out the window after a disappointing loss at Oakland. Tom Brady is having a pedestrian season but the Patriots defense has been bailing him out, and New England is on pace for another double digit, AFC East winning season. However, the defense has had trouble stopping the run, which should excite Steelers rookie Le'Veon Bell. Despite the struggles of both teams offenses this season, I think we will see some scoring from both sides in this matchup. It might help the Patriots offense if Bill Belichick would just commit to Stevan Ridley as his running back instead of constantly shuffling in Brandon Bolden and LaGarrette Blount. Things might get even more complicated in their backfield in a few weeks with Shane Vereen set to return. Should be a back and forth game, but I trust the Patriots to execute late in crucial moments more than I do Pittsburgh.

Prediction: New England 31, Pittsburgh 26

Indianapolis (5-2) at Houston (2-5), Indianapolis favored by 2 1/2

Case Keenum is the Texans starter going forward and makes his home debut Sunday night. Houston's fall has been precipitous, as I truly thought this was a team that could go to the Super Bowl this season. Andrew Luck and the Colts offense stalled the last time they played on the road in prime time, and this game will be their third straight in prime time. In a week and a half they play on a Thursday night so America is going to be very familiar with Luck and the Colts. Both defenses are terrible against the run, but the Texans rank first in the league stopping the pass. Does their struggles against the run mean Trent Richardson will finally do something for the Colts? I would bet on Donald Brown to make an impact before I would Richardson. Should be a hard fought game, but trust Luck over Keenum.

Prediction: Indianapolis 24, Houston 21


Monday, November 4

Chicago (4-3) at Green Bay (5-2), Green Bay favored by 11

Even after a bye, the Bears come into Lambeau a wounded team. They will be starting Josh McCown at quarterback and will be without Lance Briggs and potentially Charles Tillman on defense, to go with their other various injuries on defense. The Packers an infirmary as well, as Clay Matthews will likely miss this game and James Jones remains questionable to return. Aaron Rodgers is making new stars out of guys like Jarrett Boykins though and the Packers offense hasn't missed a beat without Jermichael Finley or Randall Cobb. Given the opportunity to face a hurting and bad Bears defense, I expect another fantastic performance from Rodgers. Also, now that the Packers have a ground attack with Eddie Lacy and James Starks, they are becoming a team to really take seriously come playoff time. McCown came in and played well for Cutler against Washington, but I expect a more measured performance from McCown Monday night. For the Bears to win it will take a lot of luck and Matt Forte going off on the ground. Don't see either of those happening.

Prediction: Green Bay 27, Chicago 13


Last Week Against the Spread: 6-7
Overall Against the Spread: 61-55-4

Last Week Straight Up: 10-3
Overall Straight Up: 84-36