2012 NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Finals

People have all but declared the Boston Celtics chances of beating the Miami Heat dead after the Heat dominated the Celtics in Game 1. Boston fans cried about the referees and are hanging on to the hope that a fairly contested game will lead to better results. I lean somewhere in the middle. The Celtics will have to play out of their minds to beat the Heat four times, but I don't think this series will be a cakewalk for Miami.

#2 Miami Heat vs. #4 Boston Celtics

Boston has moved on to the Eastern Conference Finals despite Paul Pierce and Ray Allen struggling for the majority of the playoffs. Allen is dealing with nagging injuries and there has been some discussion of having him sit in this series. I find the chances of that extremely unlikely but right now Allen is a liability on defense and he isn't doing what he does best, hitting threes. Pierce labored through a 5-18 shooting effort in Game 1 and he has two of the better defenders in the league in Shane Battier and LeBron James guarding him. Dwyane Wade was having his way with Allen in Game 1, and I think the Celtics might have to give Allen some rest, and give Marquis Daniels some more time off of the bench. It would also help if Mickael Pietrus does more than take up space, like he did in Game 1.

The Celtics have a clear advantage at point with Rajon Rondo going against Mario Chalmers, and even on the bench with Keyon Dooling spelling Rondo and Norris Cole getting limited time off the bench for Chalmers. The Celtics will definitely miss the presence of Avery Bradley, who had really come on this season, especially on the defensive end. Rondo did score 16 in Game 1 but also had just 7 assists to go with 4 turnovers. That assist to turnover ratio will have to improve greatly. 

PF Kevin Garnett was the Celtics bright spot in Game 1 and has been playing very well in the playoffs. He put up 23 points and 10 rebounds and was basically the only reason the Celtics weren't completely blown out. He basically made Udonis Haslem useless in the game, as Haslem only played 15 minutes and contributed just 2 rebounds, scoring zero points.

Neither team is known for their post play, the Celtics through out such luminaries as Brandon Bass and Greg Stiemsma, while the Heat have Ronny Turiaf, Joel Anthony, and when he returns from his suspension Dexter Pittman. The Heat hope that Chris Bosh can return at some point during this series but all signs seem to indicate that the earliest he would be available is if the Heat make the Finals.

The Heat can look unbeatable at times, but at the end of the day, they really are just a two man team right now. That means they can also look just as vulnerable as they do invincible. It was clearly evident in their two losses to Indiana, so it's not like the Celtics are likely to get swept. They can definitely steal a couple games from Miami, maybe even Games 3 and 4 at home. However, they don't seem to have enough answers for slowing down James and Wade. They can do it well enough to be competitive but not well enough to win. The Heat will take down Boston in the playoffs for a second straight season and advance to their second straight NBA Finals.

Prediction: Heat over Celtics, 4-2

2012 NBA Playoffs - Western Conference Finals

The Spurs and Thunder have made it clear in these playoffs that they are leaps and bounds above any other teams in the Western Conference. The Spurs have yet to lose, while the Thunder have only lost once. I was once skeptical of the Spurs but how can you pick against a team that hasn't lost in 18 straight games? The Thunder showed that they could be beaten against the Lakers, and were lucky to escape with wins in two of the five games. That being said, can the Spurs Big Three keep up with the Thunder's much more youthful Big Three of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden?

#1 San Antonio Spurs vs. #2 Oklahoma City Thunder

Both teams are basically even in the major statistical categories. The Spurs have edges in assists per game and a slight edge in points allowed per game. Both teams have high scoring offenses, fantastic point guards, and effective big men. The point guard battle between the veteran Tony Parker and the young pup Westbrook will be a gem. Parker can score as he led the Spurs in scoring but likes dishing the ball more, as evidenced by his 7.7 assists per game. Westbrook is a shoot first point guard, which has been to the consternation of some at times. However, you can't argue with the success he had against the Lakers. That being said, it will be quite a step up in competition from Ramon Sessions and Steve Blake to Parker. When the teams have to go to their benches, the Spurs will have a major advantage with Gary Neal on the court against the aging Derek Fisher.

At shooting guard the Spurs now start Danny Green but Manu Ginobli still receives pretty significant playing team. Both are very good shooters and can hit shots from just about anywhere. The Thunder also have two successful shooting guards in Thabo Sefalosha and Harden. Much like the Spurs rotation, Sefalosha starts over Harden, despite Harden being the better player.

The matchup to watch will be how the Spurs defend Durant. Will they trust rookie Kawhi Leonard to guard him, or will Stephen Jackson see an increase in minutes. Duncan or DeJuan Blair won't be able to keep up with Durant, so it will be Leonard and Jackson's responsibilities to do what they can to not allow Durant to go off every single game.

The post battle will be Tim Duncan and Boris Diaw against Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins. Duncan labored through a tough regular season but has looked like the Duncan of old thus far in the playoffs. He will have his hands full going against bruisers like Ibaka and Perkins. Diaw plays only for his defense and Tiago Splitter has been seeing more and more time off of the bench. Nazr Mohammed sees some playing time off the bench for the Thunder.

Both teams are excellent, but the Spurs are just a little better. They have a fantastic coach and play so well and flawlessly as a team. Nothing seems to rattle them and they have the perfect mix of veterans and younger players. As I said above, you can't pick against a team as hot as the Spurs right now. The Thunder's time will eventually come but for now the Spurs will take one step closer to adding to their already sparkling legacy.

Prediction: Spurs over Thunder, 4-2

2012 NBA Playoffs - Western Conference Semi-Finals

It took seven games and nearly blowing 3-1 series leads but the teams from LA survived and are now ready to start the Western Conference Semi-Finals. The Lakers fought off a resilient Nuggets team, while the Clippers went to Memphis and earned their first game seven win in franchise history. Now facing the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Lakers will be underdogs in the playoffs for the first time since the 2008 Finals against the Boston Celtics. No one is going to the give the Clippers much of a chance against the Spurs, partially because of how dominant the Spurs have been this year, and also because, it's the Clippers.

#1 San Antonio Spurs vs. #5 Los Angeles Clippers

I'm not sure anyone outside of San Antonio or Utah saw the Spurs make quick work of the Jazz in the First Round. The Spurs barely had to break a sweat and will be well rested for a weary Clippers team. It also helps that Spurs have tremendous depth and can go eleven deep. The two most fun matchups to watch in this series will be the point guard battle between Tony Parker and Chris Paul, and the young stud Blake Griffin versus the old, wily veteran Tim Duncan.

The Clippers have the pieces to match the Spurs in those areas and can cancel out and maybe even have the advantage over the Spurs in those departments. However, for the Clippers to win their bench will have to play like they did in the final quarter of Game 7 against Memphis for them to have a chance. Expecting that kind of consistent offensive production out of their bench for the majority of the series probably will be too much to ask for.

A huge advantage for the Spurs will be at shooting guard where Manu Ginobli and former Tar Heel Danny Green will face Randy Foye. The Clippers definitely have missed Chauncey Billups presence since he was lost for the year due to injury and it will be even more apparent in this series. Inside DeAndre Jordan figures to do well against Boris Diaw, but Duncan can also slide over and guard Jordan if need be.

To the Clippers credit they have pretty much lived up to the expectations placed on them once David Stern handed them Chris Paul. I have been weary of the Spurs most of the season because I haven't forgotten how they dominated the regular season last year and then were pushed over by the Grizzlies. But with the ease the Spurs eliminated the Jazz, I believe this team has found the right mix of new fresh legs, to go with their longtime big three to be one of the best teams in the NBA. Also, coaching in this series will probably play a huge part as Greg Popovich will coach circles around Vinny Del Negro. I think the Clippers can at least take one at home to avoid being swept, but they aren't in the Spurs league.

Prediction: Spurs over Clippers, 4-1


#2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #3 Los Angeles Lakers

As I mentioned above this is unfamiliar territory for the Lakers. Even when Dallas swept them last season that was quite a shock to many as the Lakers were pretty heavily favored. In this series against the Thunder I can't find anyone picking them to take this series. OKC swept the defending champion Mavericks but they were really only dominant in one of those games. The most talked about early subplot of this series will be James Harden versus Metta World Peace. World Peace returned from his suspension for elbowing Harden in Game 7 against Denver and played very well and was one of the major reasons the Lakers were able to win the game. Hopefully, World Peace doesn't do anything stupid and just plays his game because he definitely helps the Lakers cause. His main focus will have to be on guarding Kevin Durant and trying to stop one of the best players in the game from taking over the series.

With the addition of Ramon Sessions at the trade deadline the Lakers at least have a point guard that will stand a chance against Russell Westbrook. Their old point guard, Derek Fisher is now a backup for the Thunder and will try to gain some revenge on the Lakers for holding on to him for about two years too long. It will be Thabo Sefalosha and Harden's jobs to guard Kobe Bryant. Bryant will have to remain confident in his teammates, no matter their struggles as the Thunder are too good of a team for Bryant to try to do it all himself.

That is where Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum come into play. When those two play at their peak the Lakers are unstoppable. However, they almost seem to be like women who are around each other and eventually find their periods syncing up. I know that isn't a pleasant analogy but Gasol and Bynum tend to play well at the same time, like when they were monsters on the glass in Game 7 against Denver, and poor at the same time, like they did in the Game 6 blowout loss to Denver. They can't afford to take any games off. While the Lakers size could dominate the Nuggets, they won't be able to do that against Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins. The Thunder won't have to throw double teams like the Nuggets did as they have guys who can guard them face to face.

This series will take center stage in the Conference Semi-Finals and with good reason. You have tons of superstars, a budding rivalry with the drama between World Peace and Harden, and the young, upstart team trying to take out the old guard of champions. For LA to have any chance they have to steal at least one of the first two games in Oklahoma City. So tonight and Wednesday's games will be crucial. I think the Lakers time has passed though and the Thunder have grown up a lot since the bunch that lost to LA in the playoffs two years ago. It will be a very fun series but I think the Thunder will defeat the Lakers and even do it on LA's home court.

Prediction: Thunder over Lakers, 4-2

2012 NBA Playoffs - Eastern Confernce Semi-Finals

While the Semi-Finals in the Western Conference remain unsettled, the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals tip off this weekend. The Philadelphia 76ers were able to take advantage of a decimated Chicago Bulls team that was missing Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah for the majority of the series. They will now face the Boston Celtics who got past the Hawks in six games. The other matchup features the heavy favorites out of the East, the Miami Heat taking on the up and coming Indiana Pacers.

#4 Boston Celtics vs. #8 Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have gotten past the first round of the playoffs for the first since 2003. While their fans can be happy about that, they should also know that they stand no chance in hell of beating a healthy Boston team. The Sixers could barely get by the Bulls, who were without their leading scorer and rebounder. They have a few nice players, but no one great, especially to match Boston's big four.

The Celtics were able to recover from a Game 1 loss to Atlanta, then win without the suspended Rajon Rondo in Game 2, and controlled the series from that point on. While not the players they were once were, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen can all still come up big as Garnett showed in pouring in 28 points in Game 6 to close out the Hawks.

The Sixers will be leaning on Jrue Holiday and hoping he can stop Rondo from going wild and dictating things with his passing. They will also need Spencer Hawes to play big down low and get consistent scoring from Andre Iguodala.

Both teams ranked towards the bottom of the league in scoring but play tremendous defense. Expect to see a lot of scores in the 70s and 80s in this series. Philly will find that when they actually have to play a healthy team, even if that team is mostly old as dirt, the going will be too tough for them.

Prediction: Celtics over 76ers, 4-1

#2 Miami Heat vs. #3 Indiana Pacers

This series should be far more interesting and competitive than the Sixers/Celtics series will be. The Heat made easy work of the Knicks in five games, while the Pacers bounced back from a shocking Game 1 loss, to knock out the Magic in five. Indiana has gone mostly unnoticed this season due to not having a superstar but they finished the regular season with just four less wins than the Heat.

The Heat are better than the Pacers offensively and defensively, but what may keep the Pacers in the series is their edge on the glass. Their big center Roy Hibbert could have a huge series going against Udonis Haslem. Haslem isn't a bad player but he will definitely have issues with Hibbert's size. Like against the Knicks, the Heat will be lucky to be facing a team that doesn't have a dynamic point guard. George Hill of the Pacers is adequate but isn't a difference maker. Danny Granger will be expected to do the bulk of the scoring for Indiana, while Tyler Hansbrough, and Darren Collison will be expected to provide a lift for the team off the bench. David West will have to contend with Chris Bosh, while it will be Granger's responsibility to at least try to control LeBron James.

Pacers coach Frank Vogel has already started the talking by saying the Heat were the biggest floppers in the league. That will be sure to raise the ire of James and Dwyane Wade. In basketball, you usually need at least one superstar to win a championship and that is what will be the downfall of Indiana. They are well coached and have a bunch of good players but they don't have that player that can be "the guy" in crunch time. A team without superstars is not going to beat a team with two of the best players in the league in a seven game series. The Pacers will make life difficult for the Heat, but ultimately the Heat's stars will be too much.

Prediction: Heat over Pacers, 4-2