2012 NBA Playoffs - Western Conference, First Round

The Spurs finally appeared dead after being shocked in the First Round of the playoffs last season by the Memphis Grizzlies. It seemed to be a sign that after four championships, the run of the Spurs big three was finally ending. It appeared even more likely this season with a lockout shortened year, that meant little to no days off between games. Instead, the Spurs once again persevered and finished tied with the Bulls for the best record in the league. They join a wide open Western Conference playoff race, where you could conceivably make an argument for any of the eight teams to have a chance to win the Western Conference championship. The defending champion Dallas Mavericks have struggled most of this season but they still have most of the major cogs of that championship team, so anything is possible with them.

First Round

#1 San Antonio Spurs (50-16) vs. #8 Utah Jazz (36-30)

The Spurs big three led the team in scoring this season, with Tony Parker leading the way, averaging 18.3 ppg. Manu Ginobli was hurt for most of the season and only played 34 games but will be ready for the playoffs. Tim Duncan is not nearly the player he once was but still remains effective, especially on the glass where he averaged 9 rebounds per game. SG Stephen Jackson was nice pickup in a trade from the Bucks, while DeJuan Blair, Kawhi Leonard, and Matt Bonner have been the most reliable players for the Spurs, leading them in games played this season.

The Jazz enter the playoffs playing their best basketball of the season. They feature one of the best offenses in the NBA, but are not a good defensive team. C Al Jefferson carries the team and is finally back in the playoffs after a long absence. Along with PF Paul Millsap they form a formidable combo inside for the Jazz. Derrick Favors is another big inside presence the Spurs will have to deal with. The Jazz are weaker at guard, where PG Devin Harris struggled through one of his worst seasons. SG Gordon Hayward has improved his play in his second year, and has taken on a larger supporting role this year.

Some people seem to really be buying into the Spurs but I remain skeptical. They had a strong season last year and were bounced from the playoffs right away. However, I don't think this Jazz team plays good enough defense to slow down the Spurs scoring. I also think Harris is going to get eaten up by Parker and let the Spurs move on to the next round.

Prediction: Spurs over Jazz, 4-2

#4 Memphis Grizzlies (41-25) vs. #5 Los Angeles Clippers (40-26)

The Grizzlies managed to carry over the momentum they got from last year's playoffs and now will host a First Round playoff series against the Clippers. SF Rudy Gay and C Marc Gasol played and started in every game but one for Memphis. Last year's playoff star, PF Zach Randolph missed the majority of the year with injuries but is back for the playoffs. SG Tony Allen increased his scoring, while remaining one of the best defensive players in the league, his backup O.J. Mayo was the only Grizzlies player to play in all 66 games. They also have Gilbert Arenas decaying knees on the bench.

The Clippers received a ton of hype once David Stern gift wrapped them PG Chris Paul, but they were unable to win their division and nearly saw their coach, Vinny Del Negro get fired. Paul and Blake Griffin shoulder the scoring load, while SG Nick Young, whom they brought over from Washington was expected to help with that, but has struggled since joining the Clips. They get strong inside play from C DeAndre Jordan, while PF Kenyon Martin hasn't been quite what they were hoping they were getting. SF Caron Butler is a shell of his former self and had a terrible season shooting the ball.

This should be a competitive, highly entertaining series, but ultimately, I think the Grizzlies defense is far superior to the Clippers. Despite the Clippers being better offensively, the Grizzlies will disrupt the Clippers rhythm on offense and take the series in six.

Prediction: Grizzlies over Clippers, 4-2

#2 Oklahoma City Thunder (47-19) vs. #7 Dallas Mavericks (36-30)

The Oklahoma City Thunder are many people's favorite to come out of the West and also win the NBA title. They seemingly have it all, one of the best point guards in the league in Russell Westrbook, perhaps the best player in the game in Kevin Durant, and a shot blocking, defensive presence inside with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins. It is not known yet how long they might be without James Harden, who is still recovering from a concussion due to a Metta World Peace elbow. One area that might be their weakness is their lack of depth.

The Mavericks lost some key players from their championship team, such as Tyson Chandler, DeShawn Stevenson, and Jose Juan Barea. They had the failed Lamar Odom experiment, and just never really seemed to mesh this year. Dirk Nowitzki saw his numbers take a dip this year from his career average, while Jason Terry and Shawn Marion also had disappointing seasons. The Mavericks have a strong inside presence with Brendan Haywood and Brandan Wright, so they will be able to muscle up with Ibaka and Perkins. Last season they were able to overcome the disadvantage they had at point guard with Jason Kidd going against Westbrook, and they will hope that Delonte West can provide some strong minutes off the bench.

This is not the same Mavericks team that knocked off the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals last season. The Thunder are also a year older, better, and more mature. Dallas will fight hard to defend their title but they have never played like a team capable of defending their title this season.

Prediction: Thunder over Mavericks, 4-2

#3 Los Angeles Lakers (41-25) vs. #6 Denver Nuggets (38-28)

After a slow start the Lakers ended up having a pretty nice season under first year coach Mike Brown. However, their draw against the Denver Nuggets will not be easy. If the Lakers had stuck with Derek Fisher at point guard they would have had no shot at making any noise in the playoffs. The pickup of Ramon Sessions from Cleveland was huge and gives them a point guard who can do things both offensively and defensively. The Lakers interior presence of Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum is unmatched in the NBA. Bynum had a career year, playing in virtually every game he was not suspended in. Gasol has always had his toughness questioned but he has been a part of two championships, so its not like he hasn't shown he can play tough when needed. The Lakers count on Matt Barnes and Steve Blake to provide valuable minutes off the bench. They will be without Metta World Peace for at least the first six games of this series. A few weeks ago that wouldn't have meant too much but Peace had started playing his best basketball of the season.

Despite dealing with a myriad of injuries, the Nuggets were able to win 38 games and finish 10 games over .500, one of George Karl's best coaching jobs. The maturation of PG Ty Lawson continued this season and he led the Nuggets in scoring and assists. His backcourt mater SG Arron Afflalo had a career season and is part of a vicious backcourt for Denver. Danillo Galinari is finally healthy, while Al Harrington had one of the best seasons of his career. C JaVale McGee, a joke in Washington, has played well since coming to Denver and has managed to avoid being the butt of any more jokes.

The Lakers are middle of the road both offensively and defensively, while the Nuggets were the highest scoring team in the league, but one of the worst defensive teams. I think homecourt will be the difference in this series. The Lakers were one of the best home teams in the league and I think they can hold serve at home. However, they struggled on the road all season, and I think the Nuggets will win their games at home. I expect it to go seven games, with the Lakers prevailing.

Prediction: Lakers over Nuggets, 4-3

2012 NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference, First Round

The same eight teams that made the playoffs out of the Eastern Conference last season are back this year. The order has changed as none of the first round matchups are rematches from last year. Like last season, the Bulls and Heat are the favorites in the East, with some thinking the old guard of the Celtics might be able to make one final run. The first round of the NBA playoffs is usually devoid of upsets, and I expect that trend to continue this season.


First Round

#1 Chicago Bulls (50-16) vs. #8 Philadelphia 76ers (35-31)

The Bulls should not take the 76ers lightly, even with Philadelphia's late season swoon that dropped them to the 8th seed. The Sixers have given the Bulls fits when they have played the last couple of seasons. However, the Bulls confidence is sky high after winning 50 games during the strike shortened season and doing it for huge stretches of the year without their best player, PG Derrick Rose. Rose should be ready for the playoffs but Bulls fans have to be nervous about how rusty he might be after missing so much time with a litany of injuries. John Lucas and C..J Watson were able to manage the team in Rose's absence, while other players like Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson, and when he actually played, Richard Hamilton all stepped up. The Bulls have tremendous depth and that should serve them well in the playoffs.

The Sixers are led in scoring by PG Lou Williams, who actually plays behind fellow PG Jrue Holiday. Andre Iguodala saw his scoring numbers plunge this year, but his assists and rebounds were above his career average. PF Elton Brand isn't the scorer he used to be but he can still play good defense, and he along with Spencer Hawes can cause problems for teams in the paint. Evan Turner and Thaddeus Young provide the Sixers with some scoring off the bench.

This series will be a defensive slugfest, as neither team is proficient on offense but both are fantastic defensive teams. I think Rose trying to reintegrate himself into the lineup will cause the Bulls some problems in this series and allow the Sixers to make it interesting. Ultimately though the Bulls are too good to lose four game to Philadelphia.

Prediction: Bulls over 76ers, 4-2

#4 Boston Celtics (39-27) vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks (40-26)

The Celtics were expected to fall by the wayside this season with their big three of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett supposedly being too worn down to deal with the fast paced schedule of the lockout shortened season. They started off the season very slowly, but following the All Star break they seemed to be a new team and climbed all the way up to the fourth seed and another division title. The Celtics were one of the worst scoring and rebounding teams in the league but with Rajon Rondo running the point, his play along with their fantastic defense has elevated the Celtics to title contention. PF Brandon Bass has played well, and the biggest surprise of the season for the Celtics was the emergence of SG Avery Bradley and his hard nosed defense.

The Hawks are where they seem to be every season, right in the middle of the pack, with the talent to win a First Round series, but not the talent to any further. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith are still the team's main offensive output, but still will disappear during stretches of games. PG Jeff Teague took a huge leap this year, doubling his career scoring average. The Hakws also have the corpses of Tracy McGrady and Jerry Stackhouse taking up minutes but not doing much else. They will be without Al Horford for this series, as they have been for all but 11 games this year.

This will be another defensive series and one that I expect home court will play a major role. Despite having the lower seed, the Hawks get homecourt advantaged based on finishing with a better record. I think home court will be served for most of the series, but come the decisive Game 7, the battle tested Celtics will win in Atlanta and move on.

Prediction: Celtics over Hawks, 4-3

#2 Miami Heat (46-20) vs. #7 New York Knicks (36-30)

This is the most anticipated series of the First Round in the Eastern Conference. For the Knicks sake hopefully that means more than last season, when they were supposed to give the Celtics trouble and instead were swept. The Knicks were up and down all season, their season falling off a cliff to start, before Jeremy Lin and Linsanity emerged and seemed to save Mike D'Antoni's job. Then Carmelo Anthony returned from injury, the team struggled and D'Antoni resigned. Following that, both Lin and Amar'e Stoudemire were hurt, and Anthony carried the team and got them into the playoffs. Stoudemire is back now, and while Lin is not expected to play in this series, they have to feel good about Anthony playing his best basketball since joining the Knicks last season.

The Heat and their Big 2 1/2 are still the focal point, while the rest of their guys are pretty much garbage. They still lack a point guard that can take over a game or even be much of a factor. They also remain weak at center where Joel Anthony and Ronny Turiaf get the bulk of the time. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are still both incredible and good enough themselves to carry the Heat far in the playoffs. The Heat also remain a strong defensive team and throw that in with the seventh best offense in the league and they are tough to beat, despite having no depth.

I think the Knicks will live up to the hype in this year's playoffs and provide a memorable series against Miami. This series certainly doesn't lack star power and it will basically come down to which team's superstars outplay the other team's superstars. I like James and Wade over Anthony and Stoudemire.

Prediction: Heat over Knicks, 4-2

#3 Indiana Pacers (42-24) vs. #6 Orlando Magic (37-29)

This is the series that will likely be relegated to NBA TV. Despite having the 5th best record in the NBA the Pacers are still under the radar, and the Magic will be without their superstar and top notch whiner, Dwight Howard for the entirety of the playoffs. The Pacers have six players that average double figures in scoring, with SF Danny Granger leading the way with 18.7 ppg. PF David West's scoring is down but he is playing well heading into the playoffs and has some playoff experience. C Roy Hibbert is one of the most improved players in the league and with the absence of Howard give the Pacers a huge advantage down low. Darren Collison got injured and then lost his starting point guard job to SG George Hill, who limits his turnovers better than Collison did.

The Magic may actually be pleased to be without the drama that Howard gave the team all season. With him out, the scoring load will be primarily taken over by PF Ryan Anderson. Anderson had a career year, and he can score both inside and out. SF Hedo Turkoglu will be back from his eye injury, and the Magic hope that the recent hot play of SGs Jason Richardson and J.J. Redick will continue. PF Glen "Big Baby" Davis will also to have a tremendous series, to make up for the absence of Howard.

The Pacers showed signs of their emergence in last year's playoffs when they gave the Bulls all they could handle in the First Round. This year, I think they take the next step and win a playoff series, helped by the Magic being without one of the best players in the league in Howard.

Prediction: Pacers over Magic, 4-2

NCAA Basketball Championship Game - New Orleans, Louisiana

#2 Kansas (32-6) vs. #1 Kentucky (37-2)

It is Bill Self vs. John Calipari, and no it is not 2008, it is 2012. Like in 2008, Self is leading his underdog Kansas Jayhawks, while Calipari is coaching the favorite, except this time his team is Kentucky and not Memphis. This is a rematch from November 15 when Kentucky manhandled Kansas, 75-65. Both teams have vastly improved since then, so don't put too much stock into that result.

Kentucky got Louisville's best shot but were able to hang on to a 69-61 victory. The Wildcats shot uncharacteristically poorly from the free throw line, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist struggled but they still found ways to win.

Kansas put in what has become a typical performance for them in this Tournament. They played an awful first half, then played like a completely different team in the second half, rallying to defeat Ohio State, 64-62. Thomas Robinson led Kansas with 19 points and Jeff Withey dominated with 7 blocks.

Kentucky is clearly the best team in college basketball and if they play even average should defeat Kansas. However, if they play closer to the level they played Saturday against Louisville this game will become exciting. A better team would have beaten Kentucky and it is a shame Ohio State choked away their game against Kansas because I believe they are a team that could take down the Wildcats. I don't think Kansas can afford another slow start and expect to be able to come back against Kentucky. They have to play more like the Kansas team that came strong out of the gates against North Carolina in the Elite Eight.

The matchup to watch tonight will be Anthony Davis against Thomas Robinson, perhaps the best and second best players in the country. Their first matchup was basically a stalemate, Robinson was able to get rebounds but didn't score much, while Davis did a little bit of everything. You don't get to see many battles of big men anymore, so this will have an old school feel. Withey will also guard Davis at times but I think Kansas has to try to stick Robinson on Davis to match his athleticism. Tyshawn Taylor was the leading scorer for Kansas in that game, but his recent play suggests an encore performance is unlikely. He has shot poorly throughout the Tournament, and had just 10 points and 5 turnovers against Ohio State. Kansas guard Travis Releford doesn't always get talked about but his steady play is a major reason Kansas has gotten this far. If the battle of the big men becomes a wash then the game will come down to Taylor, Releford, and Elijah Johnson versus Darius Miller, Marquis Teague, and a player that killed Kansas the first time Doron Lamb. Kansas isn't very deep as the only two that usually get off the bench are G Conner Teahan, and F Kevin Young. Neither will do much scoring and Young plays for his defense. Terrence Jones and Kidd-Gilchrist have the size to take advantage of some matchups the Jayhawks will throw at them and I wouldn't be surprised if they both have big games. Especially Kidd-Gilchrist who will want to atone for his struggles in the Final Four.

The difference in this game may end up being the three. Kansas shot just 34% from three point land this season, while the Wildcats shot 38%. Also, Kentucky is just more talented and deep than Kansas and I think that will eventually overwhelm the Jayhawks. I think Kansas will come out playing well and give themselves hope, but then at around the ten minute mark in the second half, they will begin to fatigue and that is when Kentucky will take over the game. Calipari will finally have his national championship and the Wildcats will be champions for the first time since 1998.

Prediction: Kentucky 69, Kansas 59