The 2012 Final Four - New Orleans, Louisiana

After last year's craziness the Final Four has returned to being represented by the usual suspects. The lowest seed crashing the party is #4 Louisville, but they aren't much of a Cinderella considering they won the Big East Tournament just a few weeks ago. Ohio State and Kansas made it here as two seeds, beneficiaries from their #1 seeded counterparts Syracuse and North Carolina missing key players. This weekend is expected to be all about the coronation of Kentucky, and John Calipari's first national championship. Can anyone stop the Kentucky machine, with all of its future pro prospects?

#4 Louisville (30-9) vs. #1 Kentucky (36-2)

The golden ticket to reaching the Final Four seems to be struggling late in the season, then catching fire and winning the Big East Tournament, and carry that over to the NCAA Tournament. The path the Cardinals have taken seems eerily similar to the path last year's national champion, Connecticut took. Louisville dominated Michigan State in the Sweet 16 but looked to be headed home late in the second half against Florida in the Elite Eight. Then their tough defense stiffened and despite guard Peyton Siva fouling out, the Cardinals made the plays they needed to, returning to the Final Four for the first time since 2005.

Their leading scorer Kyle Kuric struggled against Florida, but second leading scorer Russ Smith picked up the slack, along with F Chane Behanan, who despite averaging 9 points per game during the regular season, has scored in double digits in all four tournament games. Guards Sive and Chris Smith are the motors of the Cardinals offense. Smith does a good job of playing within in the game and minimizes his turnovers. Siva is high risk, high reward but when he is smart he does a fantastic job of finding the open man. On the defensive side C Gorgui Deng had a block party against Michigan State and while he came back down to Earth against Florida, he still was a disruptive presence in the post.

The Wildcats blew past Indiana in a shootout in the Sweet 16 and then dominated Baylor for 38 of the 40 minutes of their Elite Eight game. This is Calipari's second straight Final Four, but this Kentucky team is leaps and bounds beyond the team he brought to the Final Four last season. Consensus #1 pick in June's NBA Draft, Anthony Davis does just about everything at a high level. F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has scary athleticism for a guy his size, G Marquis Teague has continued the Calipari tradition of flashy point guards, G Darius Miller is a senior believe it or not, and despite his minutes going down this season, he has remained a team player and performed well. Their other dangerous guard is Doron Lamb, the second leading scorer on the team behind Davis. You also can't forget about last year's superstar, Terrence Jones. The Wildcats are loaded.

These teams met New Year's Eve at Rupp, with Kentucky winning 69-62 in a foul plagued abomination. The only player that showed up for Louisville was Russ Smith who poured in 30 points. Deng was able to assert himself on the defensive end with 6 blocks but for Louisville to have any chance they need to get otherworldly performances from everyone. Louisville had no answers for David or Kidd-Gilchrist and there isn't a reason to expect that to change Saturday. To beat Kentucky, you either have to hope that the Wildcats beat themselves or that you play the perfect game. I don't see either of those events unfolding on Saturday, so Kentucky should roll to their first Championship game since 1998.

Prediction: Kentucky 74, Louisville 62


#2 Ohio State (31-7) vs. #2 Kansas (31-6)

The Buckeyes were up and down this season and to some observers underperformed. While they may not have been as critically acclaimed as last year's team, this year's version of the Buckeyes did reach the Final Four. They controlled most of their Sweet 16 game against Cincinnati, and then completed their sweep of the Big East by taking out #1 seed Syracuse, punching their first Final Four ticket since 2007.

The unquestioned two best players on the Buckeyes are their forwards, Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas. Thomas has been dominant in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 22 points per game and 6 rebounds, both above his regular season average. Sullinger had what some thought was a disappointing sophomore season, but he has come up huge in the Tournament. He is averaging 18 points through the four games, and 8.25 rebounds per game. He was able to overcome early foul trouble against Syracuse and take over the game in the second half, propelling Ohio State to the win. Their point guard, Aaron Craft won't necessarily wow you by watching him, and it is definitely a word that gets thrown around a little too much with white players, but its impossible to deny how scrappy he plays. His fellow guard, senior William Buford defines consistency. For three straight seasons he has averaged 14.4 points per game.

The Jayhawks got off to a slow start against NC State in the Sweet 16 and just barely eeked out a victory. They finally started a Tournament game hot against North Carolina and in a game of runs, they had the decisive run to close the game and make it to the Final Four for the first time since their championship in 2008. In the Tournament, their point guard Tyshaun Taylor has more resembled the maddeningly inconsistent player he was his first three seasons, although he did play fantastic against Carolina. It helped that he was playing against Stillman White, who had little prayer of being able to guard him. The Jayhawks leader is their man beast, Thomas Robinson. Robinson is pretty much an every game double double player for Kansas. It will be fun to watch him do battle with the Buckeyes bigs. Center Jeff Withey sometimes gets overlooked because of how dominant Robinson is, but he was a big part of Kansas dominating the Tar Heels bigs in the Elite 8. Guard Elijah Johnson has been huge in the Tournament, limiting his mistakes and keeping the Jayhawks in games when Taylor has struggled.

While Kentucky/Louisville figures to be a blowout, this game should be close and back and forth the entire way. Both teams have similar make ups and strengths and weaknesses in similar areas. The matchups to watch will be Craft/Buford versus Taylor/Johnson, and Sullinger/Thomas versus Robinson/Withey. Whichever team can win those matchups will win this game. If those matchups are a stalemate, like I expect they will be, this game will come down to who has the ball last. I think Ohio State is just a little bit better than Kansas, and also the team that could give Kentucky the most trouble of the teams left. I like the Buckeyes to return to the Championship game, looking to get a title and erase the memory of their 2007 championship loss.

Prediction: Ohio State 71, Kansas 69

2012 March Madness (South and Midwest Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elite 8

So last night didn't go so well for me in the picks department. I correctly predicted just one of the four games, so hoping for a little more success tonight. Tonight's games feature some Cinderellas, a David vs. Goliath battle, and a rematch from one of the best games of the regular season. Syracuse, Ohio State, Louisville, and Florida punched their Elite Eight tickets last night, who will join them?

South Regional Semi-Final

#10 Xavier (23-12) vs. #3 Baylor (29-7)

Xavier was having a strong season and then the rails came off following the ugly brawl in their game against Cincinnati. They were able to right the ship just in time to make the NCAA Tournament and after wins against Notre Dame and Lehigh are in the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in five seasons. Their best player by far is senior guard Tu Holloway. Holloway averaged 17 points per game during the season and is averaging 23 points per game in the first two games of the tournament. He is joined in the back court by another dangerous guard, junior Mark Lyons. Lyons was second on the team in scoring and assists but was pretty quiet in the past two games. The Musketeers big presence inside is senior C Kenny Frease. Frease was a monster against Lehigh, scoring 25 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. He doesn't figure to have nearly that stat line going up against Perry Jones III but how he plays is a major factor in whether or not Xavier pulls the upset.

After a disappointing season last year Baylor has been at the top of the rankings just about all season. They got more than expected trouble from South Dakota State in the Second Round, but were able to blow away Colorado in Round Three. Perry Jones III is their leading scorer but he is also wildly inconsistent. He has not played well at all thus far in the tournament and was virtually invisible against Colorado. They can win when Jones struggles but if they want to a national championship he will have to pick up his play. The Bears have an electric guard in Pierre Jackson, as Jackson can both score and facilitate the offense. Watching him and Holloway go against each other will be fun. The Bears other big man that complements Jones is Quincy Acy. At just 6'7 Acy averages almost as many rebounds as the 6'11 Jones. He plays with a ton of heart and if Jones had Acy's motor Jones would probably be a consensus #1 pick in the NBA draft.

Baylor is a better offensive team than Xavier but Xavier will be able to stay in this game because of their defense. It will really come down to how well Xavier is able to slow down Baylor's bigs, Jones and Acy. Unfortunately, for the Musketeers I don't think they will be able to slow them down much, and the Bears will be in the Elite Eight for the second time in three years.

Prediction: Baylor 77, Xavier 69

Midwest Regional Semi-Final

#13 Ohio (29-7) vs. #1 North Carolina (31-5)

The story of this game would normally be the David, Ohio from the MAC, taking on the Goliath, North Carolina from the ACC. Instead, all of the talk has been about whether or not Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall will be able to play or not. As of right now it appears Marshall will not play tonight. Marshall is critical to the success of Carolina. Despite all of the talent they will still have on the floor, they are only at their peak when Marshall is facilitating. Luckily, for the Heels they have a good draw for tonight's game against an over matched Ohio team.

Carolina breezed through Vermont and Creighton with relative ease. The way Carolina looked was what had everyone anointing them as the number one team prior to the season. With Marshall unlikely to suit up tonight he will be replaced by a combo of freshman Stillman White and senior Justin Watts. Watts may get more playing time as the senior but this is why the loss of Dexter Strickland earlier in the season was so huge. Strickland would have been a much better option, despite not being a natural point guard. Hopefully White and Watts can avoid a ton of turnovers, contribute some points if possible and just let John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Reggie Bullock, and Harrison Barnes do their things.

Ohio is the highest remaining seed in the tournament. They knocked off Michigan, and then took out South Florida. The Bobcats have been carried by their point guard D.J. Cooper. Cooper shot very well against Michigan and South Florida and made the big plays late in both games when they needed him. The Bobcats second most known player is Nick Kellogg, the son of former player and broadcaster Clark Kellogg. Nick can be dangerous from three point land and allowing perimeter shots has been the Achilles heel, no pun intended, for North Carolina this season.

I can't see any way Carolina loses this game. With Marshall they would probably win by 20-25 points, without him I think they can still win by double digits. Carolina's size is going to be overwhelming to Ohio and unless the Bobcats shot 60%, I can't see them hanging around. One key will be for Carolina to take a large lead early and not allow Ohio to get any confidence. Things could become stressful if they let Ohio hang around for an extended period of time.

Prediction: North Carolina 80, Ohio 66

South Regional Semi-Final

#4 Indiana (27-8) vs. #1 Kentucky (34-2)

These two teams played each other in Bloomington on December 10th, with the Hoosiers handing Kentucky their first loss of the season on a buzzer beater by Christian Watford, 73-72. If you watch ESPN you have probably seen the shot about a million times by now as they feature it in one of their commercials. That game cemented that the Hoosiers were back on the national stage. Now they try to do what seems to be impossible, beat the best team in the country twice.

The Hoosiers are lucky to even be in this game. After a comfortable win against New Mexico State, it took a late rally against VCU for the Hoosiers to win that game. A lot of teams in the NCAA rely on their guards but the Hoosiers success hinges on their two forwards, Watford and Cody Zeller. Both were able to get Anthony Davis in foul trouble for Kentucky and he played just 24 minutes in the first game. If they can attack Davis inside and get him into the foul trouble, the impossible will become much more possible. While he may not be the focal point of the team, guard Jordan Hulls is still crucial. He struggled mightily against VCU and that was a big reason that the Hoosiers were trailing most of the game.

Everyone knows about Davis and how good he has been for the Wildcats. They are filled with weapons and on paper appear impossible to beat. If you somehow slow down Davis you still have to deal with Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marquis Teague, and Terrence Jones. The Wildcats usually play a 7 man rotation to the secret to beating them is to try to get them into foul trouble and make them use their bench.

Homecourt advantage was the difference in the last game and without that I don't think the Hoosiers are in the Wildcats league. I expect Davis to play under control and avoid foul trouble and the weapons of the Wildcats to overwhelm Indiana and give Kentucky their revenge.

Prediction: Kentucky 75, Indiana 65

Midwest Regional Semi-Final

#11 North Carolina State (24-12) vs. #2 Kansas (29-6)

Allow me to take a moment to pat myself on the back as being one of the few people to pick 11 seed NC State to reach the Sweet 16. After watching the Wolfpack play in the ACC Tournament I could tell that they were a team hitting their peak at the right team. If you look at their stats they are actually much better than you might expect. They are a better rebounding team than Kansas and also almost as good a scoring team. They dispatched San Diego State rather easily in Round Two and then rallied to defeat Georgetown in Round Three. Sophomore C.J. Leslie is the biggest reason for the Wolfpack's turnaround under first year coach Mark Gottfriend. He has raised his game considerably and his ability to battle with Georgetown's bigs kept the Wolfpack in the game when they trailed early. Another player who has shown considerable improvement this year is forward Richard Howell. Like Leslie, Howell has seen his numbers rise across the board, he struggled against the Hoyas but had an outstanding game against the Aztecs. The Wolfpack also have a dangerous point guard in Lorenzo Brown.

Kansas had little trouble with Detroit but trailed most of their game against Purdue before their defense forced enough turnovers to give them the victory. One of the most improved players in country is their senior point guard Tyshawn Taylor. Taylor has raised his scoring 8 points a game this season, and it was a late steal, followed by a layup that was the key to them overcoming Purdue. The man that received most of the pub for the Jayhawks is forward Thomas Robinson, a Player of the Year candidate. He had a terrible game against Purdue and will need to bounce back for the Jayhawks to avoid an unexpected early exit.

Some people will just look at the seeds and think mismatch, but as I stated above the Wolfpack aren't that far off from the Jayhawks. I think this will be one of those games where neither team is able to take a big lead and will be filled with lead changes. I think Kansas will make just enough plays at the end of the game, like they did against Purdue, that they will escape with the win.

Prediction: Kansas 70, North Carolina State 67

In Sunday's Elite Eight games I think that Kentucky will get past Baylor in a physical, bruising affair. Perry Jones may really be exposed by Anthony Davis. Then in the other game, I hope that somehow Kendall Marshall will himself to play some. Even without him, I still think Carolina can beat Kansas and get back to The Final Four.

2012 March Madness (West and East Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elite 8

Just how good is the Big East? That is a question that seems to divide college basketball fans. You have the pro Big East camp which thinks it is the greatest conference in the history of EVAR because they annually send a lot of teams to the NCAA Tournament. Then you have the other side that thinks the Big East is fraudalicious. That they only send the amount of teams they do because they have about 27 teams in their conference. They also point to the fact that Big East sees many of their teams fail to make it past the first weekend. The Big East has fared pretty well thus far, sending four teams to the Sweet 16. Coincidentally enough, all four of these teams play tonight. This will either be a night that will see the Big East lovers vindicated, or the Big East haters proven right. Sure they could go 2 for 4 and nothing would be settled, but that is boring to talk about. However, this season the talk has been that the Big Ten is now the best conference in basketball. Well tonight, we get a mini Big East/Big Ten invitational as three of the four games will be between teams from those conferences. Which conference will reign supreme?

East Regional Semi-Final

#4 Wisconsin (26-9) vs. #1 Syracuse (33-2)

The Badgers are back in the Sweet 16 and hoping to take the next step, unlike last year when they were upset by Butler. Wisconsin blew away Montana in Round Two, and then scraped past Vanderbilt in Round Three. Wisconsin is winning the same way they always have, ugly and tough to watch fashion. They follow the Big Ten model of playing hard defense, and scoring when necessary. When they do decide to score it is usually senior guard Jordan Taylor putting the ball in the basket. Taylor is not only the Badgers main offensive weapon, he is adept at creating opportunities for his teammates, averaging 4 assists per game. The Badgers aren't particularly strong at rebounding, but with the absence of Fab Melo for the Orange, they hope that Ryan Evans and Mike Bruesewitz can win the battle of the boards and give Wisconsin extra possessions.

Right before the tournament started the Orange were dealt a blow when it was announced their best rebounder, Fab Melo would be ineligible to play. They appeared shell shocked when they luckily got past UNC Asheville in Round Two. However, in Round Three they seemed to have their feet under them and dominated Kansas State. Syracuse's guards Scoop Jardine and Dion Waiters were the main reason for that dominance. However, one area that Jardine needs to do better at is his turnovers. He committed six against the Wildcats and if he does that tonight, the Badgers will make the Orange pay. Freshman forward Rakeem Christmas has been on a monster on the glass the first two games of the tournament, averaging 9 rebounds per game.

Wisconsin doesn't do anything particularly great, but they play defense at a high enough level that they are usually in every game. Despite the Orange's dominating win against Kansas State, I am not sold on them being able to make a Final Four run. Counting on the freshman Christmas is a lot to ask, as the Orange getting later and later in the tournament. I also think Jardine is going to have a hard time against the Badgers defense and will be a turnover machine. It won't be pretty but the Badgers will exorcise the demons of last year and head to the Elite 8. Syracuse has overcome adversity all season, but eventually the distractions will catch up to them and I think it happens tonight.

Prediction: Wisconsin 63, Syracuse 57

West Regional Semi-Final

#4 Louisville (28-9) vs. #1 Michigan State (29-7)

The Cardinals are on a roll, following up their run through the Big East Tournament, with two hard fought wins over Davidson and New Mexico. They have players that complement each other well and know their roles. The scoring load falls on senior Kyle Kuric and sophomore Russ Smith. Big man Gorgui Dieng, and Chane Behanan handle the rebounding, while flashy Peyton Siva is the distributor.

Michigan State basically goes the way of Draymond Green. Green can't do it alone but if he is playing well the Spartans definitely have a chance in any game. He had a triple double against LIU-Brooklyn, and then against Saint Louis seemed to hit big shot after big shot to hold off the Billikens. The Spartans second most dependable player is sophomore guard Keith Appling. Appling put up 19 points against Saint Louis and for the Spartans to keep advancing he will have to be able to support Green.

Both teams are strong rebounding teams but where the Spartans have the edge and what will likely be the difference in the game, is that Louisville is not nearly as good offensively as Michigan State. The Cardinals do play very good defense and their pressure could disrupt the Spartans, but I don't think they have the weapons that can take enough of an advantage of those opportunities. I have a feeling this will be one of those games where afterwards Louisville will be kicking themselves thinking of the missed chances they had to win.

Prediction: Michigan State 68, Louisville 61

East Regional Semi-Final

#6 Cincinnati (26-10) vs. #2 Ohio State (29-7)

The last of the Big Ten/Big East battles features two teams from Ohio, as Cincinnati takes on Ohio State. The Bearcats are another strong defensive team from the Big East, and defense is what carried them to wins over Texas and Florida State. Size wise the Bearcats don't match up well with the Buckeyes so for them to have a chance, guard Sean Kilpatrick will have to shoot well like he did against Florida State. It will be up to Yancy Gates to try to slow down the Buckeyes big men Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas.

Ohio State came out flat against Loyola (MD) and still crushed them, then survived a tough battle against Gonzaga. The Buckeyes still have the bitter taste of falling to Kentucky in the Sweet 16 last year and one of the reasons Sullinger came back was try to win a national title. To me Ohio State is a team that has been underachieving all season, but can also get hot at the right time and win six straight games and become a champion. They have weapons all over the floor, with Aaron Craft and William Buford.

Matchup wise I don't think Cincinnati matches up well with Ohio State. The Buckeyes will be able to play the inside, outside game and their size is going to be too much for the Bearcats predominantly guard lineup to handle. I expect Sullinger and Thomas to have big nights and get the Buckeyes one step closer to a Final Four.

Prediction: Ohio State 65, Cincinnati 53

West Regional Semi-Final

#7 Florida (25-10) vs. #3 Marquette (27-7)

There is no denying the Gators have been impressive the first two rounds. They beat Virginia by 26 and then crushed Cinderella Norfolk State by 34. The question is, how much does that mean when the competition wasn't all that good? The Gators tend to rely on the three point shot but they can also win without it, as was evident against Virginia. Florida relies on its shooters, Kenny Boynton, Bradley Beal, Mike Rosario and sometimes when he is hot, Ervin Walker.

For Marquette they win because of the offensive duo of Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder. Each player was on point against BYU and Murray State and to match the scoring ability of Florida, both will have to be on their game tonight. Crowder will likely have plenty of opportunities as he will probably destroy the Gators on the glass, as he averages 2 more rebounds per game than Florida's leading rebounder, their guard Beal.

This game should be fast paced and fun to watch. It will come down to what kind of start the Gators get off too. If they start off slow, like they did against Virginia it could be a long night, but if they start off on fire like they did against Norfolk State, they can beat anyone. They aren't that strong of a defensive team so any struggles on the offensive end are magnified. Ultimately, I think Crowder will be the difference in this game and is what will set the Golden Eagles apart from Florida.

Prediction: Marquette 71, Florida 69

In Saturday's Elite Eight I think the Buckeyes will get the better of the Badgers in the Big Ten battle, while Michigan State's Draymond Green will outplay Jae Crowder of Marquette in the other Elite Eight matchup and send the Spartans back to the Final Four.

2012 March Madness - West Region (First Weekend)

The West region could be wide open. Michigan State is the #1 seed but their charge to the top this season was unexpected and they still have some doubters. However, Tom Izzo has had great success in the tournament in the past so people picking against the Spartans are doing so at their own risk. Missouri is another favorite and much like the Spartans little was expected of them this season. Marquette and Louisville represent the Big East, and both could do some damage. The Cardinals have had some Tournament failures in recent years but are riding the momentum of winning the Big East tournament. Sleepers to look out for are Long Beach State and Davidson.

Best Game: #7 Florida vs. #10 Virginia

It's the Gators three point shot versus the Cavaliers suffocating defense. No one shot more three pointers than Florida, and their ability to win is predicated on how well they are hitting that shot. Leading the Gators three point barrage is guard Kenny Boynton who averaged 16 points per game and hit 43% of his threes. He went 0-4 from three against Kentucky in the SEC Tournament and that was the difference in the game. The other Gator guards to contend with are freshman Bradley Beal and senior Erving Walker. The Gators lack of size could lead to a big game for Cavaliers forward Mike Scott. Scott was first team all-ACC and he should have a huge game rebounding and scoring against Florida.

Player to Watch: Murray State guard Isaiah Canaan

You most likely have never heard of Isaiah Canaan, but if the Racers win a game or two this weekend, he will be the reason. Canaan averaged 19.2 points this season along with 3.7 assists. He is the reason that the Racers lost just one game this season and he was held to single digits in scoring just twice in 31 games. He is an electrifying player and is just a junior, so expect to really hear about him next season.

Best Potential Game: #2 Missouri vs. #7 Florida

This would be the track meet game. Both teams score a lot of points and both rely heavily on the play of their guards. Marcus Denmon, Kim English and Phil Pressey lead the Tigers attack, but the advantage for Missouri in this game would likely come from F Ricardo Ratliffe. The tempo in this game would be non-stop for two hours and a lot of fun to watch.

Lowest Seed to Make It Through Weekend: #4 Louisville

I am anticipating a lot of chalk in the West this weekend. I am nervous about picking Louisville to get to the Sweet Sixteen as they have burned me in epic fashion in past tournaments. That being said I think this region features a pretty clear disparity between the top four seeds and the rest. If Memphis didn't have to play Michigan State in the Third Round I would be tempted to pick them to go a little farther. Long Beach State will knock off New Mexico in Round one, but besides that, expect a lot of predictable results.

Predictions

First Round

#14 Iona over #14 BYU

Second Round

#1 Michigan State over #16 LIU Brooklyn

#8 Memphis over #9 Saint Louis

#12 Long Beach State over #5 New Mexico

#4 Louisville over #13 Davidson

#6 Murray State over #11 Colorado State

#3 Marquette over #14 Iona

#7 Florida over #10 Virginia

#2 Missouri over #15 Norfolk State

Third Round

#1 Michigan State over #8 Memphis

#4 Louisville over #12 Long Beach State

#3 Marquette over #6 Murray State

#2 Missouri over #7 Florida

2012 March Madness - South Region (First Weekend)

The South Region seems to be considered the strongest region in the NCAA Tournament. It features dominating Kentucky, the defending national champions Connecticut, last year's Final Four Cinderella VCU, resurgent programs like UNLV and Indiana, as well as Notre Dame and Duke. That list doesn't even include perhaps the best mid-major team in college basketball Wichita State. Some matchups could be set up after this weekend that will create nostalgia for fans from the 90's or the new kids on the block could crash the party.

Best Game: #5 Wichita State vs. #12 VCU

Fans seem to get upset when mid-majors are paired against each other in the tournament. I don't really understand that, it just shows the committee is looking at them as a regular team, as opposed to focusing on their mid major status. Wichita State and VCU will be new to most casual fans, but once they see them play they will see that both these teams are very good. The Shockers are thought to be a tough out because of their big man, senior C Garrett Stutz. However, Stutz averages just 24 minutes per game, so its important for the Shockers that senior G Joe Ragland plays at his usual high level. He will have his work cut out for him going up against VCU's vaunted press, known as Havoc defense. VCU has the size to match up with Stutz in Juvonte Reddic and their lone senior Bradford Burgess has been playing his best basketball of the season as of late.

Player to Watch: Kentucky forward Anthony Davis

Davis is likely to be named the NCAA Player of the Year in a few weeks. He led Kentucky in scoring, shooting an astounding 64% and a very strong 70% from the line. He was also their leading rebounder and comes in to the tournament with double doubles in his last four games. Despite his strong play he might be more famous for his unibrow. Not sure why he chooses to keep it but expect many new fans to be telling you all about that big guy on Kentucky with a single eyebrow.

Best Potential Game: #1 Kentucky vs. #9 Connecticut

This year's favorite versus last year's champion? Calipari versus Calhoun? Doron Lamb versus Jeremy Lamb? Sign me up please. If the Huskies can get past Iowa State it would set up a tantalizing Third Round matchup with Kentucky. The Huskies have been inconsistent all season and on paper wouldn't appear to have much of a chance. However, you can never count out a Jim Calhoun coached team, and the Huskies will not lose out on the chance to defend their title without a fight.

Lowest Seed to Make It Through Weekend: #7 Notre Dame

I am not that sold on Notre Dame, which in recent years has underperformed in the NCAA Tournament. Them making it to the Sweet Sixteen will be more a byproduct of their draw. Xavier has been streaky and inconsistent all season, and Duke might be without Ryan Kelly and seems susceptible to a first weekend upset. Player to watch on the Irish is F Jack Cooley who became the team leader when Tim Abromaitis was lost for the season due to injury.

Predictions

First Round

#16 Western Kentucky over #16 Mississippi Valley State

Second Round

#1 Kentucky over #16 Western Kentucky

#9 Connecticut over #8 Iowa State

#5 Wichita State over #12 VCU

#4 Indiana over #13 Montana

#6 UNLV over #11 Colorado

#3 Baylor over #14 South Dakota State

#7 Notre Dame over #10 Xavier

#2 Duke over #15 Lehigh

Third Round

#1 Kentucky over #9 Connecticut

#5 Wichita State over #4 Indiana

#3 Baylor over #6 UNLV

#7 Notre Dame over #2 Duke

2012 March Madness: Midwest Region (First Weekend)

The region I will be most interested in is the Midwest region where the Tar Heels reside as the #1 seed. This is also the region where I expect the most upsets and double digit seeds to make runs to the Sweet 16. I believe the Heels will be immune from any upsets this weekend but a potential Third Round matchup with Creighton or even Alabama makes me nervous. Other teams to watch include #2 seed Kansas with Thomas Robinson, one of the biggest surprises of the season, #3 seed Georgetown, and #4 seed Michigan, led by Tim Hardaway, Jr. Lurking in the shadows will be #11 seed North Carolina State, and the bruisers from South Florida.

Best Game: #6 San Diego State vs. #11 NC State

This region isn't filled with many intriguing Second Round games so this almost wins by default. The Wolfpack had a strong showing in the ACC Tournament and come into the NCAA Tournament with momentum on their side. They are a strong offensive team and aren't just carried by one guy, but have many that can fill the basket. Five players averaged double figures in scoring, led by forward C.J. Leslie. Guards rule for the Aztecs with Chase Tapley and Jamaal Franklin providing most of the scoring, and in Franklin's case even the rebounding.

Player to Watch: North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall

There are a lot of talented players in this region but no team relies more heavily on a single player than the Heels do on Marshall. If Marshall is out of sorts, then so is Carolina, no matter how well Harrison Barnes or Tyler Zeller might be playing. That was evident on Sunday in the ACC Championship game against Florida State. Marshall was not himself in the first half and Carolina got behind big. He played much better in the second half and the Heels almost completed the comeback. It is important for Carolina that Marshall play like himself in each game and get going early. If he is scoring it is a bonus but it is most important that he is successfully feeding Zeller and John Henson inside, and finding Barnes on the wing. When Marshall is at his best, there may be no better point guard in college basketball.

Best Potential Game: #1 North Carolina vs. #8 Creighton

This game would be billed as David vs. Goliath but the Heels shouldn't overlook Creighton. Creighton was seventh in scoring average, at 80 points a game and it is possible each of these teams could score 100 if they play one another. Forward Doug McDermott is a beast for the Blue Jays, averaging 23 points per game. Watching him battle Harrison Barnes would be delightful. Creighton is also the best shooting team in college basketball, and that could minimize one of Carolina's biggest strengths, their domination of the boards. I would much rather see power conference Alabama in the Round of 32 than the dangerous Blue Jays.

Lowest Seed to Make It Through Weekend: #12 South Florida

South Florida plays a style that is almost unwatchable, but it is also very effective and the reason why they are making their second ever NCAA Tournament appearance. The Bulls don't score much, averaging 59.2 points per game, good enough for 328th in the country. They don't have a single player that scores in double digits but they play a rugged brand of basketball not seen much these days. I think their style of play could be a shock to the system for teams like California and potentially Temple and Michigan.

Predictions

First Round

#16 Lamar over #16 Vermont

#12 South Florida over #12 California

Second Round

#1 North Carolina over #16 Lamar

#8 Creighton over #9 Alabama

#12 South Florida over #5 Temple

#4 Michigan over #13 Ohio

#11 NC State over #6 San Diego State

#3 Georgetown over #14 Belmont

#7 St. Mary's over #10 Purdue

#2 Kansas over #15 Detroit

Third Round

#1 North Carolina over #8 Creighton

#12 South Florida over #4 Michigan

#11 NC State over #3 Georgetown

#2 Kansas over #7 St. Mary's

2012 March Madness - East Region (First Weekend)

The East Region was rocked yesterday with the news that Syracuse center and leading rebounder Fab Melo was declared academically ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. Melo was declared ineligible earlier this season and the Orange went 2-1 without him. Syracuse will certainly miss his size and rebounding presence but even with him in the lineup I wasn't picking Syracuse to make a Final Four run. They had a very good season but have a history of choking in tournament. Ohio State, Florida State, Wisconsin, and Vanderbilt were feeling good about their chances to make a run in this region before the suspension, and now are feeling ecstatic about their chances.

Best Game: #5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 Harvard

Harvard is in their first NCAA Tournament since 1946, a 66 year wait. Not enough credit has been given to their coach Tommy Amaker for the job he has done. Amaker failed at Michigan but has more than succeeded with the Crimson. You know he has done a great job because I am giving him credit despite him being a Dookie. Vanderbilt will be trying to shed some tournament baggage this year. In recent years they have been knocked out in the first round by double digit seeds. They made some history of their own, winning the SEC championship for the first time since 1951. The Commodores believe this year could be different because of their dangerous combo of guard John Jenkins, and forward Jeffery Taylor. The Crimson don't have that one superstar but have a mix of dangerous players. Their best player is F Keith Wright, and he and Taylor will have a physical battle inside. Harvard will have to be at their defensive best if they want to pull off the upset, as the Commodores shoot the ball quite well and have more firepower than Harvard.

Player to Watch: Ohio State forward Jared Sullinger

Sullinger surprised everyone by coming back for his sophomore season and while he saw most of his numbers take a slight step down, he is still a dominant force and the leader of the Buckeyes. One area he did improve was his free throw shooting. He was already a 70% free throw shooter which is very good for someone his size and he improved to 75% this year. It is a great weapon for the Buckeyes to have someone that can draw a lot of fouls and then make teams pay from the line. The Buckeyes have somewhat underachieved this season but because of guys like Sullinger they are a definite possibility to make a Final Four run.

Best Potential Game: #2 Ohio State vs. #7 Gonzaga

Some might say Syracuse vs. Kansas State will be the best but that is only because they give the Wildcats more of a chance with Melo out. This game, you will have two strong teams at their best. The Buckeyes and Bulldogs both shoot extremely well and this is a game that will be uptempo and feature plenty of scoring. The Buckeyes get lumped into that ugly Big Ten style of play but they have speed at many positions and would much prefer to get into a track meet. Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft going against Elias Harris and Kevin Pangos would be fun to watch.

Lowest Seed to Make It Through First Weekend: #5 Vanderbilt

Spoiler alert but I am not picking a single upset in this region this weekend, unless you call Vanderbilt over Wisconsin an upset. Having said that I am sure that is the kiss of death for me and this region will be haywire come Sunday. I am scared picking Vandy because of how horrible they have been in the Tournament in recent years, but at some point you have to think they will break through. Sometimes how a team played in a conference tournament can be overvalued, but it also can be the start of a run, like UCONN last season.

Predictions

Second Round

#1 Syracuse over #16 UNC Asheville

#8 Kansas State over #9 Southern Mississippi

#5 Vanderbilt over #12 Harvard

#4 Wisconsin over #13 Montana

#6 Cincinnati over #11 Texas

#3 Florida State over #14 St. Bonaventure

#7 Gonzaga over #10 West Virginia

#2 Ohio State over #15 Loyola (Maryland)

Third Round

#1 Syracuse over #8 Kansas State

#5 Vanderbilt over #4 Wisconsin

#3 Florida State over #6 Cincinnati

#2 Ohio State over #7 Gonzaga

2012 ACC Tournament Preview

The top three of the ACC remained the same as last season, with North Carolina, Duke, and Florida State securing the top three spots. Four through six includes a new set of teams as Clemson, Boston College, and Virginia Tech have given way to Virginia, North Carolina State, and Miami. The top four appear to be locks for the NCAA Tournament, while NC State and Miami will need impressive showings in the ACC Tournament to earn a bid.

1. North Carolina (27-4, 14-2)

Harrison Barnes leads the Heels in scoring but their unquestioned best player is ACC Player of the Year Tyler Zeller. Zeller does just about everything, he passes and shoots well, and is a terror on the glass and defensively. A full season of Kendall Marshall at the point has led to talk that Marshall may declare for the NBA draft after this season. John Henson still makes some plays that leave me shaking my head, but their is no denying his ability, as he led the Heels in rebounding. Carolina didn't quite live up to the hype that preceded them this season, but as evidenced by their blowout win at Cameron last weekend, things may be clicking at just the right time. Once again Carolina is not very deep, so any foul trouble could spell doom. Also, you never know how seriously coach Roy Williams takes the ACC Tournament, so keep that in mind if the Heels stumble.

2. Duke (26-5, 13-3)

It was an odd season for Duke. They went undefeated on the road in conference play but lost three times at home, and it could have been five had they not mounted comebacks against NC State and Virginia Tech. Bad news came a few days ago when it was announced that F Ryan Kelly will miss the ACC Tournament with an injury. It is well known that Duke's success is predicated on their ability to hit three pointers. If those shots aren't falling it doesn't matter much how the Plumlee brothers, Mason and Miles are playing. Austin Rivers won first team all ACC at point guard over Kendall Marshall and was pretty much the only reason Duke beat Carolina in their first meeting. Seth Curry is another three point specialist that Duke relies on. Duke has owned the ACC Tournament for the last decade, but it would be a pretty huge surprise if they were able to win it this season.

3. Florida State (21-9, 12-4)

The Seminoles play a rugged, ugly type of basketball but it produces results. They routed North Carolina and then defeated Duke at Cameron. While not known for their offensive prowess, one player to look out for is sharpshooter Michael Snaer who shot 44% this season and beat Duke and Virginia with late game shots. Senior Bernard James is another to play to watch, finishing with an average of 8.3 rebounds per game and shooting 61% this season.

4. Virginia (22-8, 9-7)

The Cavaliers have a very similar style of play as the Seminoles. They don't try to beat you with offensive firepower, but instead overwhelm you with defense and take advantage of each possession. It seems like F Mike Scott has been their forever and this season he earned his spot on the ACC First Team, finishing with 17.9 ppg and 8.3 rpg. Problem is he is just about the only threat to rebound for the Cavaliers, so when they face big teams like Carolina it spells trouble.

5. North Carolina State (20-11, 9-7)

Mark Gottfried has done a nice job in his first season in Raleigh. The Wolfpack may not be able to grab an NCAA bid but they don't have many seniors and should be in contention for the next few seasons. Their best player is sophomore F C.J. Leslie who lead the Wolfpack and scoring and was second in rebounding. They also have a very talented guard in Lorenzo Brown who does a great job at finding the open man. The Wolfpack are ranked highly in scoring, rebounding, assists and shooting percentage, so they are definitely a threat to make a run in this tournament.

6. Miami (18-11, 9-7)

I have followed the Hurricanes much closer this season due to former Mason coach Jim Larranaga taking over for Frank Haith this season. Larranaga has been politicking like crazy for the Canes to get into the NCAA Tournament but most experts believe they have to win at least 2 games in the ACC Tournament to get in. Guard Durant Scott has dropped his turnovers this season and has been much more careful with the ball. The Canes best player is junior C Reggie Johnson. Johnson has missed time this season due to injury and suspension, but his presence inside makes a huge difference for Miami. He almost single handedly led them to victory at Duke in February. F-C Kenny Kadji is another big body that scores and rebounds.

Below are my predictions for today's First Round games and then how I see the rest of the ACC Tournament playing out over the weekend.

First Round

#8 Maryland over #9 Wake Forest
#5 NC State over #12 Boston College
#10 Virginia Tech over #7 Clemson
#6 Miami over #11 Georgia Tech

Quarter-Finals

#1 North Carolina over #8 Maryland
#5 NC State over #4 Virginia
#2 Duke over #10 Virginia Tech
#3 Florida State over #6 Miami

Semi-Finals

#1 North Carolina over #5 NC State
#3 Florida State over #2 Duke

Finals

#1 North Carolina over #3 Florida State

I expect to see a few minor upsets in the tournament. I think Duke won't have much trouble with Clemson, but the loss of Kelly will catch up with them when they play Florida State. The Seminoles split with Miami this year, and since I think they are the better team I like them to win the rubber match. Hopefully, the Heels come ready to play on Friday against Maryland, unlike last season against Miami. I think the Wolfpack will give Carolina some trouble in the semi-finals but ultimately the Heels firepower will be too much. That sets up a finals between Carolina and Florida State, and Carolina will get their revenge for an embarrassing blowout loss at Florida State in January.

The Alley - Oop

It is the final weekend of the college basketball regular season. March Madness really does creep up on you when you don't start paying close attention until February. The most important game of the weekend is on Saturday night at 7 pm. That is when North Carolina will take on Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Believe it or not, I probably am not going to get to see the game. Going to be visiting with some friends I don't get to see often, and sometimes things take priority. However, I will be following the game on my iPhone and will probably be just as passionate as usual.

Top 10

Saturday, March 3

#18 Louisville (22-8, 10-7) at #2 Syracuse (29-1, 16-1)

Syracuse might be the most under-appreciated 29-1 team in college basketball history. Any other year they would be getting more pub but with Kentucky being a little more dominant no one is really talking about the Cuse as potential national champions. Some of that might also have to do with their recent early flame outs in the NCAA Tournament. Louisville comes into this game struggling. They have lost three of their last five games, with one of those losses being a 1 point heartbreak to the Orange. Syracuse keeps finding ways to pull out wins in tense, late game situations. In their first meeting with Louisville no one could do anything on offense and the Orange basically pulled out a victory through sheer will. This time I expect Kris Joseph to have much more of an impact, especially on senior day.

Prediction: Syracuse 66, Louisville 57

#6 North Carolina (26-4, 13-2) at #3 Duke (26-4, 13-2)

I expect the Tar Heels to come out ready to play at Cameron on Saturday. They already have the motivation that comes with the Heels/Blue Devils rivalry, but now you get to add to that the revenge factor. Carolina had Duke beaten when they played a few weeks ago in Chapel Hill, but then they got sloppy late in the game and Austin Rivers killed them. Duke didn't deserve to win that game, and I think both teams know it. Now the Heels have a chance to ruin Senior night and win the ACC title in enemy territory. One thing that Carolina will have to do a much better job of in this game is guard the three point shot. Duke shot 38% from 3 point land and without hitting those shots, would have fallen too far behind in the second half to have a chance. The other key will be to contain Duke's guards Rivers and Seth Curry. Rivers had 29 points in the first game, and gave Kendall Marshall fits trying to guard him. Carolina dominated the rebounding battle in the first game, but still need to do a better job of keeping Mason Plumlee off the glass, as he had 14 rebounds.

Carolina doesn't really need to change their game plan from last time all that much. Every starter contributed, aside from Reggie Bullock. They got almost no bench production but that has been the story all season and isn't something that is going to magically change for this game. Tyler Zeller and Harrison Barnes both had monster games, but the problem was they were inconsistent monster games. Zeller dominated the first half, then was quiet in the second, while Barnes was nowhere to be found in the first half, and a beast in the second. If those two can play well the entire game, the Heels will not lose.

This season, Duke has not been the usual dominant home team people have come to know. They lost to Miami and Florida State, and struggled with NC State and Virginia Tech. Carolina won't be intimidated by the atmosphere at Cameron and without that advantage, I think revenge will be Carolina's.

Prediction: North Carolina 77, Duke 74

Texas (19-11, 9-8) at #4 Kansas (25-5, 15-2)

The Longhorns are squarely on the bubble but a win at Kansas would pretty much guarantee them a berth in the Tournament. That will be easier said than done as Kansas hasn't lost at Lawrence all season. Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson were the difference makers last time these teams played and that has basically been the case the entire season. Texas might be the more desperate team but Kansas is too talented to lose this one at home.

Prediction: Kansas 74, Texas 65

#12 Georgetown (22-6, 12-5) at #7 Marquette (24-6, 13-4)

The Hoyas are trying to remain in the top four of the Big East standings and earn a double bye in the conference tournament. Marquette just had their five game winning streak snapped on the road at Cincinnati. Both these teams are pretty evenly matched so this is an instance where I think home court advantage will make all the difference.

Prediction: Marquette 67, Georgetown 60

#8 Missouri (26-4, 13-4) at Texas Tech (8-21, 1-16)

Not too much to say about this one, Texas Tech is terrible and Missouri could play half heartedly and still win.

Prediction: Missouri 70, Texas Tech 54

#10 Baylor (25-5, 12-5) at Iowa State (21-9, 11-6)

This game on the other hand should be much more interesting. They Cyclones seem pretty secure as far as making the NCAA Tournament, while the Bears are fighting for a 2 seed it would appear. Baylor dominated the first game in Waco, so revenge will be on the mind of the Cyclones. Cyclones F Melvin Ejim has been quiet his last few games, but put up 17 against the Bears in the first game, and will be the difference in the Cyclones squeaking out a win.

Prediction: Iowa State 76, Baylor 74

Sunday, March 4

#1 Kentucky (29-1, 15-0) at #13 Florida (22-8, 10-5)

Great job by the schedule makers having this be the SEC regular season finale. Kentucky is one win away from sweeping the SEC. The SEC isn't known as a basketball conference but going undefeated in any conference is a pretty amazing accomplishment. The Gators are skidding, having lost their last two games, both on the road. The Gators leading scorer Kenny Boynton has struggled in those two losses, so him bouncing back is a major key. The Gators best player might be freshman Bradley Beal. In the first game against Kentucky, a blowout loss for Florida Beal fell a little too in love with the three point shot. He needs to try to stay close to the basket and play to his strengths. The Gator crowd will provide a major lift but the Wildcats have shown the ability all year, mostly through their defense that no hostile atmosphere is too much for them to handle. The Gators will give the Wildcats trouble but no reason to pick against Kentucky.

Prediction: Kentucky 72, Florida 67

#11 Ohio State (24-6, 12-5) at #5 Michigan State (24-6, 13-4)

The Buckeyes will be looking to atone for an embarrassing home loss they suffered to Michigan State a few weeks ago. They were held to just 48 points and that loss has really started what has been a recent slide for Ohio State. The Buckeyes lost at home last week to Wisconsin and then barely survived on the road against Northwestern. Michigan State is coming off an embarrassing loss at Indiana, and can't afford another loss here if they want to remain a potential #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Only Jared Sullinger and Aaron Craft bothered to show up last game, so it is important for the Buckeyes that William Buford and Deshaun Thomas play much better in this one. Spartans F Draymond Green will be filled with emotion as he plays his last home game for Michigan State. Green had 29 points against Indiana but got help from almost no one else. It was a team effort that led to the Spartans winning in Columbus last game, so the play of guys like Keith Appling and Branden Dawson, who has really struggled as of late, will be something to watch. Despite their struggles I still think Ohio State is an elite team that has underperformed. I am not sold yet on the Spartans, and that is why I am picking the semi-upset.

Prediction: Ohio State 61, Michigan State 58

Last Week: 8-2
Overall: 16-5