The Hail Mary - Week 17

Quick and dirty Hail Mary for the regular season finale. Just got back from Florida, and have to start celebrating my engagement and 2012. Just score predictions this week but the Hail Mary will return to normal for the start of the playoffs next week.

Week 17 - Sunday, January 1

Detroit (10-5) at Green Bay (14-1), Detroit favored by 4

Prediction: Green Bay 24, Detroit 21

San Francisco (12-3) at St. Louis (2-13), San Francisco favored by 10 1/2

Prediction: San Francisco 24, St. Louis 10

New York Jets (8-7) at Miami (5-10), Miami favored by 3

Prediction: New York Jets 20, Miami 16

Chicago (7-8) at Minnesota (3-12), Minnesota favored by 1 1/2

Prediction: Minnesota 21, Chicago 17

Buffalo (6-9) at New England (12-3), New England favored by 10 1/2

Prediction: New England 27, Buffalo 21

Carolina (6-9) at New Orleans (12-3), New Orleans favored by 7 1/2

Prediction: New Orleans 30, Carolina 23

Washington (5-10) at Philadelphia (7-8), Philadelphia favored by 8

Prediction: Philadelphia 28, Washington 21

Indianapolis (2-13) at Jacksonville (4-11), Jacksonville favored by 3 1/2

Prediction: Jacksonville 17, Indianapolis 14

Tennessee (8-7) at Houston (10-5), Tennessee favored by 1 1/2

Prediction: Houston 24, Tennessee 17

Tampa Bay (4-11) at Atlanta (9-6), Atlanta favored by 10 1/2

Prediction: Atlanta 35, Tampa Bay 17

Baltimore (11-4) at Cincinnati (9-6), Baltimore favored by 2

Prediction: Cincinnati 21, Baltimore 20

Pittsburgh (11-4) at Cleveland (4-11), Pittsburgh favored by 6 1/2

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 15

Kansas City (6-9) at Denver (8-7), Denver favored by 3

Prediction: Denver 24, Kansas City 20

San Diego (7-8) at Oakland (8-7), Oakland favored by 3

Prediction: Oakland 28, San Diego 24

Seattle (7-8) at Arizona (7-8), Arizona favored by 3

Prediction: Arizona 19, Seattle 17

Dallas (8-7) at New York Giants (8-7), New York Giants favored by 3

Prediction: New York Giants 26, Dallas 20

Last Week Straight Up: 12-4
Overall Straight Up: 151-89

Last Week Against the Spread: 11-5
Overall Against the Spread: 123-111-6

The Hail Mary - Week 16

First off, Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, whatever you choose to celebrate at this time of year! Two weeks remain in the regular season and the playoff pictures remains quite muddled. That means there is still plenty of intrigue left this season. Last weekend was quite amazing as underdogs ruled the day. That continued into last night when the Colts knocked off the Texans. You know it has been a crazy five days when the Colts have won twice in that span. This weekend features multiple games with major playoff implications, so what am I waiting for!?!?

Programming note, I may not have a Hail Mary next week as I will be out of town. I will try to get something up, maybe just a quickie post but I wouldn't count on it.

Week 16 - Saturday, December 24

Denver (8-6) at Buffalo (5-9), Denver favored by 3

Tim Tebow's miracle run finally came to an end at the hand of the Patriots. It might have been because he flipped the script and started off the game playing well before falling apart. I think that Tebow will go back to what he does best in this game. Play like crap for three quarters, then lead the Broncos to a thrilling come from behind win in the fourth quarter. Despite their loss last week, they still control the AFC West, holding a one game lead over the Raiders and suddenly resurgent Chargers. I gave Buffalo the benefit of the doubt last weekend and thought they had to have had at least one more win in them, but no, it is obvious they are ending the year on a 9 game losing streak.

Prediction: Denver 28, Buffalo 17

Arizona (7-7) at Cincinnati (8-6), Cincinnati favored by 4 1/2

The Arizona Cardinals are neck and neck with their NFC West brethren the Seattle Seahawks for who can have the most miraculous run to the playoffs. They sit two games out with two to play, so the chances are a long shot, but considering they were 1-6 earlier this season, to even be in the discussion right now is quite amazing. Plus, they have won most of those games with John Skelton as their quarterback. The Bengals have to be the biggest surprise of the season. Very much alive for a playoff spot with two weeks to go, I don't even think Marvin Lewis would have expected this. You can just tell the Bengals aren't quite ready for the intensity that playoff football brings and because of that I think they lose this game but could still be very much alive in Week 17 for the final playoff spot.

Prediction: Arizona 20, Cincinnati 16

Jacksonville (4-10) at Tennessee (7-7), Tennessee favored by 8

The Titans probably blew their playoff chances with an inexplicable loss at Indianapolis. Matt Hasselbeck has been awful the last few weeks, and each time I have seen Jake Locker enter a game he has moved the offense better than Hasselbeck. I understand wanting to go with the veteran over the rookie when you are fighting for a playoff spot, but the proof seems to be in the pudding that Locker may give them a better chance to win right now. The Titans also lost to the Jaguars earlier this year, another loss that will haunt them when they are home for the playoffs.

Prediction: Tennessee 23, Jacksonville 19

Oakland (7-7) at Kansas City (6-8), Kansas City favored by 1

Definitely didn't see that Chiefs over Packers upset coming. The defense did a great job slowing down the Packers, while Orton did a nice job of controlling the game and not letting the Packers offense get on the field much. The Raiders dropped their third straight game in heartbreaking fashion to the Lions. All signs would point to this being a Kansas City win, especially because the Chiefs blew out the Raiders in Oakland earlier this season, 28-0. The NFL is not a conventional wisdom league though and that is why I like the Raiders to pull off the mini upset.

Prediction: Oakland 27, Kansas City 20

Miami (5-9) at New England (11-3), New England favored by 10

The Patriots are moving closer and closer to securing the number one seed for the second straight season. Now whether or not that is a good thing based on their recent playoff history is up for debate. Their is no denying the atrociousness of their defense and it may come back to bite them in the playoffs, but maybe times have changed in the NFL and all you really need is a super, awesome quarterback. Tom Brady certainly qualifies.

Prediction: New England 29, Miami 21

New York Giants (7-7) at New York Jets (8-6), New York Jets favored by 3

Definitely one of the most intriguing games this weekend. A Giants loss will likely end their playoff hopes and probably lead to Tom Coughlin being fired. A win and the Giants will control their destiny going into the season finale with the Cowboys. As for the Jets, they currently hold the final playoff spot by a thread. While a loss wouldn't do them any good, they would still have a chance at making the playoffs. That extra feeling of desperation the Giants have is what will ultimately be the difference. These two teams are very evenly matched, so this game will likely come down to the wire.

Prediction: New York Giants 27, New York Jets 24

St. Louis (2-12) at Pittsburgh (10-4), No Line

It was apparent that Ben Roethlisberger was really in no shape to be trying to beat the number one defense on Monday night. He could definitely beat one of the worst teams in the league, but so could Charlie Batch, so it would probably be prudent for the Steelers to sit Big Ben in this one.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, St. Louis 14

Minnesota (2-12) at Washington (5-9), Washington favored by 6 1/2

Been a rough couple of days for the Skins. They upset the Giants last week, worsening their draft position, and then Matt Barkley decided to stay at USC another year. Skins should win here and lose at Philly next weekend, so back to back 6-10 seasons appear to be on the horizon for Mike Shanahan. It is all about year three, another non playoff season and the cries for him to be fired will grow louder.

Prediction: Washington 24, Minnesota 20

Tampa Bay (4-10) at Carolina (5-9), Carolina favored by 7 1/2

The Panthers are going to be everybody's sleeper next season, causing them to not really be a sleeper.

Prediction: Carolina 34, Tampa Bay 20

Cleveland (4-10) at Baltimore (10-4), Baltimore favored by 13

I'm done trying to figure the Ravens out. Well, I take that back, they are quite easy to figure out. They are pretty much unbeatable at home, and almost atrocious on the road. Whoever wins the AFC North between them and the Steelers is who will get to the AFC Championship. Whoever settles for second is getting knocked out in the Wild Card round.

Prediction: Baltimore 23, Cleveland 13

San Diego (7-7) at Detroit (9-5), Detroit favored by 2 1/2

What is it about the Chargers and saving their best football for December, after playing like utter crap the previous three months? The Lions are tantalizingly close to their first playoff berth in 12 years. Typical Lions history says they will drop their last two games and somehow miss the playoffs. However, even if they lose to San Diego on Saturday, they get the Packers in the final game, and their is a good chance the Packers will have home field advantage clinched and nothing to play for. I don't think it will come down to that though. The Lions will give their fans a happy ending on Christmas Eve and clinch their playoff berth at home. Fittingly, the longest tenured Lion, Jason Hanson will kick the game winner.

Prediction: Detroit 26, San Diego 23

Philadelphia (6-8) at Dallas (8-6), Dallas favored by 2 1/2

The Eagles just won't die. It will take a multitude of things to bounce the right way but if Philadelphia can win their last two games, they have a chance at sneaking into the playoffs as NFC East champions. They should feel confident playing Dallas, they destroyed them in their first matchup, The Cowboys have gone from Rex Ryan talking shit, to Jerry Jones claiming the Cowboys are scared of the Eagles. Mind games are the sign of a desperate team, and desperate isn't a good look Jerry. I remember a game between these two on Christmas not too long ago, when Jeff Garcia and the Eagles pounded the crap out of the Cowboys to wrap up the division. I hope the Eagles can give me another Christmas memory of a win over the Cowboys.

Prediction: Philadelphia 31, Dallas 30

San Francisco (11-3) at Seattle (7-7), San Francisco favored by 2 1/2

I was very pleased with the 49ers performance on Monday night. That was a total team win with offense, defense, special teams all doing their part. The red zone issue came through in the beginning of the game, but the the Niners were able to punch it in later to put the game on ice. Going to Seattle is going to be tough, the Seahawks are playing well, and even when they are bad, it is tough to win at Seattle. This is a huge game for San Francisco, if they win this game they should be set for the #2 seed and a playoff bye, since I don't see them losing at St. Louis the final weekend of the season. It is imperative they get that 2 seed, not just for the week off, but so they would host the Saints, instead of having to potentially play them in New Orleans.

Prediction: San Francisco 22, Seattle 19

Sunday, December 25

Chicago (7-7) at Green Bay (13-1), Green Bay favored by 12 1/2

This the only game Christmas day and it's a shame the Bears are so injury depleted as it could have been a great one. The Bears defense will keep them in the game, but their is no way Josh McCown is winning at Lambeau Field.

Prediction: Green Bay 24, Chicago 10

Monday, December 26

Atlanta (9-5) at New Orleans (11-3), New Orleans favored by 6 1/2

It is always a great game when these two play and the stakes are high. The Saints can clinch the NFC South, and keep their hopes for a playoff bye alive with a win. The Falcons are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot, and a win would guarantee that, while also keep alive outside hopes of an NFC South title. The Saints have been fantastic at home all season long, but I think this is another Falcons/Saints game that will go right down to the wire. This game will also have major fantasy football implications, as championship games will likely be decided by this game. I'll be in Florida but hopefully I can find some time to watch this one.

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Atlanta 28

Last Week Straight Up: 7-9
Overall Straight Up: 139-85

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-9-1
Overall Against the Spread: 112-106-6

Cram Session - Bowl Edition

Some people hate it but it can't be stopped and it only grows bigger and bigger. I'm talking about college football bowl season, get your minds out of the gutter! My favorite teams Notre Dame and Nebraska will both be in Orlando, Florida for their bowl games. Then there is the BCS, which kicks off on January 2nd with the Rose Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl. I have predictions and previews for those four games. Then on January 3rd will have my predictions for the Orange and Sugar Bowl and finally on January 9th the prediction for the game no one outside of the south wanted to see, LSU and Alabama in the National Championship game.

Champs Sports Bowl, Thursday, December 29

Florida State (8-4) vs. Notre Dame (8-4) in Orlando, Florida

These two programs were supposed to finally be "back" this season. With their 8-4 regular seasons the only thing they were back to was the mediocrity that has permeated both programs for years now. Both did at least finish somewhat strong, the Irish went 8-2 in their last 10 games but those two losses came to good teams like USC and Stanford. Notre Dame still appears far away from being able to compete with the best that college football has to offer. The Seminoles have won six of their last seven games and their defense has been playing phenomenally. Their QB EJ Manuel didn't live up to they hype that surrounded him to star the year but still put up decent numbers with 16 TDs and 8 INTs. Otherwise, the Seminoles don't have much offensively that scares you. For Notre Dame, their offense is all about WR Michael Floyd, ones of the best in the country. Floyd had a monster season, grabbing 95 catches and 8 TDs. TE Tyler Eifert also became a presence this season, bringing in 57 catches and 5 TDs. The key for Notre Dame is to establish a running game, whenever they have been able to do that they end up winning. Also, QB Tommy Rees needs to be good Tommy and limit the turnovers. Despite getting yanked in the season finale against Stanford, Brian Kelly has named him the starter for this game. But if he struggles I wouldn't be surprised to see Andrew Hendrix take over. This game is a toss up, so I have to go homer and pick the Irish in what should be a close game. I think Floyd will earn MVP honors and go out in style.

Prediction: Notre Dame 23, Florida State 17

Capital One Bowl, Monday, January 2

#20 Nebraska (9-3) vs. #9 South Carolina (10-2) in Orlando, Florida

The Huskers ended the season on a winning note and if they can beat South Carolina will have their third straight winning season. This year still has to been seen as somewhat of a disappointment. Taylor Martinez didn't get better at quarterback and actually regressed. Also regressing was the defense, which was expected to carry the team. The Huskers lived and died with how RB Rex Burkhead played. Luckily for them he played well most of the season and carried Nebraska to nine wins. The Gamecocks had an up and down season that saw inconsistency at the quarterback position and their best player go down to injury. Stephen Garcia and Connor Shaw shared time out quarterback, until Garcia was booted from the team after blowing his 75th chance. They were being carried by RB Marcus Lattimore but then Lattimore went down with an injury and was lost for the season. It was then the defense's turn, led by highly touted freshman Jadveon Clowney to carry the load and they did it quite well. If the Gamecocks win they will complete their winningest season in school history. This is also Steve Spurrier's first shot at the Cornhuskers since his Florida Gators Fun n' Gun offense was shut down by Nebraska in famous fashion in 1996. If Lattimore was playing I would give the Huskers no chance, but I think the Gamecock offense can be contained and allow the Huskers to get their feet under them on offense. Nebraska will be motivated for this bowl game, unlike last season when they were facing Washington in a rematch. This game is up to the offensive line and their ability to create holes for Burkhead. I think they will do enough to win the game.

Prediction: Nebraska 20, South Carolina 17

Rose Bowl, Monday, January 2

#10 Wisconsin (11-2) vs. #5 Oregon (11-2) in Pasadena, California

The Big Ten and Pac-12 champion face off in the Rose Bowl. Both of these teams were in the mix for a national title during the season but were unable to complete the journey. They each feature talented quarterbacks and running backs. For Wisconsin their offense started off being all about QB Russell Wilson, as he garnered the headlines early on in the season. But then, it became all about RB Montee Ball, who rushed for an insane 32 TDs this season. For Oregon, LaMichael James has always been the face of the offense, with Darron Thomas not getting nearly as much credit as he deserves. This will likely be James last game for the Ducks as he is almost a foregone conclusion that he will go pro after this game. There is no questioning the offenses in this game, so where the game will be decided is which defense can contain the other teams high powered offense. Wisconsin is sixth in the nation in points allowed, but showed in the Big Ten Championship game that they can be scored on, giving up a season high 39 points. The Ducks defense was 48th in the country in points allowed per game but it could be argued that they played much better offenses in the Pac-12 than Wisconsin did in the Big Ten. This is a really tough game to call, both have had tough losses in previous years in the Rose Bowl and will be looking to make up for those. I think the Ducks offense is a little better than the Badgers and that will be what leads them to victory.

Prediction: Oregon 28, Wisconsin 21

Fiesta Bowl, Monday, January 2

#4 Stanford (11-1) vs. #3 Oklahoma State (11-1) in Glendale, Arizona

Pretty cool that #3 and #4 in the country are matched up in the Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma State had a legitimate case to face LSU in the National Championship game but will have to settle for Stanford and Andrew Luck instead. Oklahoma State is all about offense, led by QB Brandon Weeden and all world WR Justin Blackmon. He is overlooked but they also have a running threat in Joseph Randle, who rushed for over 1,000 yards. The Cowboys didn't score less than 30 points in a single game this season. Stanford is identified as Andrew Luck's team but they also have an accomplished running back, Stepfan Taylor. Both teams gave up over 20 points a game so it will be shocking if this game doesn't turn into a track meet. The only way I can see Oklahoma State losing is if they commit multiple turnovers, like they did in their loss at Iowa State. I am a little concerned about them coming out flat because they would rather be playing in New Orleans, but I think the pride of being able to show that they belonged in the title game will win out. This will be one of the most fun bowl games to watch.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Stanford 27

Overall Record: 115-20

The Hail Mary - Week 15

The Tebow phenomenon appears that it can't be stopped. Somehow, someway, he and the Broncos keep finding ways to win games. Tebow's ability to overcome the impossible should no longer be a surprise. For example, he has remained a virgin despite having girls like the one pictured as possibilities. It appears nothing can stop Tebow. Except maybe the evil genius Bill Belichick and one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game in Tom Brady. Patriots/Broncos on Sunday at 415 is appointment television and should be tremendous theater. There are 14 other games as well, let's talk about them.

Week 15 - Saturday, December 17

Dallas (7-6) at Tampa Bay (4-9), Dallas favored by 7

The Cowboys never just lose, it always seems to be in spectacularly ridiculous fashion. As a Cowboy hater it is quite fun to watch. December hasn't been a kind month to Dallas in recent history but I can't see that misery extending to Saturday when they play a Buccaneers team that quit on their coach last week at Jacksonville. I mean, how else can you explain losing to the sorry Jags, 41-14? The Bucs are horrific on defense so for those of you with Cowboys on your fantasy squad, expect a big night.

Prediction: Dallas 30, Tampa Bay 17

Sunday, December 18

Miami (4-9) at Buffalo (5-8), No Line

The Dolphins finally whacked Tony Sparano and will now set their sets on a big name, such as Jeff Fisher. I always felt Fisher was overrated as a coach but his level of success, while not the best, would certainly be an upgrade for the floundering Dolphins. The Bills completed their collapse by getting routed at San Diego and eliminated from playoff contention. That win over New England seems so long ago. I don't think the Bills are bad enough to lose their last nine games, so at home against Miami is as good a time as any to get a win.

Prediction: Buffalo 17, Miami 16

Seattle (6-7) at Chicago (7-6), Chicago favored by 3 1/2

Poor Marion Barber. He was fantastic for me in fantasy football, rushing for over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown. But in real life, he cost the Bears that game against the Broncos. He may be on a short leash against Seattle and could be pulled quickly if he fumbles or has more brain farts. The Seahawks have snuck back into the playoff race and have to be kicking themselves for losing at home to the Redskins. Chicago's offense has been non-existent since Jay Cutler was forced to sit with an injury, but the defense has kept them competitive. The defense get's the Bears a much needed victory on Sunday.

Prediction: Chicago 17, Seattle 14

Tennessee (7-6) at Indianapolis (0-13), Tennessee favored by 6 1/2

It remains to be seen if the Titans go with Matt Hasselbeck or rookie Jake Locker, who has shown promise in his limited action. I don't know if the Titans have a third string quarterback but he could beat the Colts so it really doesn't matter who get's the nod.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Indianapolis 17

Green Bay (13-0) at Kansas City (5-8), Green Bay favored by 14

The Chiefs fired Todd Haley, just a year after he won the AFC West. When you see how many games the Chiefs have been blown out in this year, it makes you wonder how they have even managed to win five games. The Packers march towards perfection will continue at Arrowhead and the question will be how hard do they try for the perfect season in their last two games? Do they go the 2007 Patriots route, or the 2009 Colts route? I have a feeling that they will go the Patriots route, because while injuries are never welcome, the Packers have so much depth that it probably doesn't matter.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Kansas City 17

Cincinnati (7-6) at St. Louis (2-11), Cincinnati favored by 6

Why in the blue hell is Josh McDaniels possibly being considered as the next coach of the Chiefs? He was awful in Denver and he has been awful as the offensive coordinator for the Rams this year. The Rams needed one yard against Seattle last Monday and took about eight plays to get it. The time they actually got it? When they handed it off to their best player, Steven Jackson, whom they ignored the rest of the time. What an offensive genius!! This game is the kind of game the Bungles would find a way to lose, but I have irrational faith in the Red Rocket and A.J. Green that they can keep the Bengals playoff hopes alive another week.

Prediction: Cincinnati 21, St. Louis 14

New Orleans (10-3) at Minnesota (2-11), New Orleans favored by 7

The Saints are definitely not the same team on the road, and if the Niners are forced to play in the Divisional round at the Superdome it will probably get ugly. The Vikings have been competitive almost all season but continue to find new ways to lose. Christian Ponder had his first truly bad game at Detroit last weekend, so hopefully he can shake that off and play better at home. The Saints will enjoy the comforts of the dome, but I think the Vikings can hang with them and give them a scare, before ultimately doing what they do best this season, losing.

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Minnesota 26

Washington (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6), New York Giants favored by 7

The Redskins have had their fair share of troubles in New York over the last few years, with only Todd Collins being able to figure out how to win there. The last few years have been complete embarrassments. I think the Redskins will at least show up, but the Giants need this game, and while they have some mysterious losses, this game won't be added to the list. Expect Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to own the Redskins like they always do.

Prediction: New York Giants 26, Washington 17

Carolina (4-9) at Houston (10-3), Houston favored by 6 1/2

The story in Houston is really quite amazing, as with last week's win despite all of the injuries, they clinched their first AFC South title and thus their first playoff berth. Now they are battling for a first round bye with Baltimore, New England, and Pittsburgh. As if they didn't have enough turmoil to deal with, they will be without defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who is taking a medical leave of absence. It will be interesting to see if his absence has a noticeable effect on what has become the league's number one defense. He is missing at just the wrong time as the Texans have to try to slow down Cam Newton. Luckily for them the 2011 Panthers can be summed up this way, close but no cigar.

Prediction: Houston 24, Carolina 20

Detroit (8-5) at Oakland (7-6), Detroit favored by 1

Really tough game to call here. The Lions get Ndamukong Suh back, which will be nice as they were torched the two weeks he was out. The Raiders have been awful their last two games, stopping no one on defense and turning the ball over in bunches. They weren't missing Darren McFadden originally, but Michael Bush has come back to Earth the last few weeks and the running game has been almost non-existent. Injuries are really starting to take their toll on the Raiders offense. The loser of this game will be in rough shape for a playoff spot so expect the intensity to be ratcheted up in this game. Also, with both teams being highly undisciplined expect this game to take about 6 hours due to all the penalties that will be called. Good ole Sea Bass is due for a game winning kick.

Prediction: Oakland 27, Detroit 24

New England (10-3) at Denver (8-5), New England favored by 6

As mentioned above this is the game of the weekend. All logic says that the Patriots should roll the Broncos. But you have to throw logic out the window when picking a Denver game. The Patriots offense has been on a roll during their five game winning streak, but as we saw for about a three game stretch earlier this season, they can be slowed down. I like the Denver defense to keep the Broncos in the game and Tebow to start to lead another 4th quarter rally. However, this time, the drive will be stopped by a Julian Edelman interception, and the Patriots will wrap up the AFC East.

Prediction: New England 22, Denver 19

New York Jets (8-5) at Philadelphia (5-8), Philadelphia favored by 3

Vegas still loves the Dream Team, inserting them as three point favorites despite their losing record. They also are ignoring how bad Philadelphia has been at home the past year, where they have lost eight of their last nine. I would be more inclined to pick the Eagles if this game was at the New Meadowlands, where Philly tends to play well. The Jets seem to have found their running game recently and I expect Shonn Greene to continue to run the ball well and propel the Jets to their fourth straight win.

Prediction: New York Jets 23, Philadelphia 21

Cleveland (4-9) at Arizona (6-7), Arizona favored by 7

Here come the Cardinals! Kevin Kolb may return for this game, but John Skelton has also showed that he is just as capable of throwing the ball and hoping Larry Fitzgerald makes a super human play. It is looking like Seneca Wallace will get the start for the Browns, which actually might be good news. If you look at Wallace's career stats they actually aren't that bad, and he is a good runner that can be hard to track down. With this win, the Cardinals once at 1-6, will have climbed all the way back to .500.

Prediction: Arizona 20, Cleveland 15

Baltimore (10-3) at San Diego (6-7), Baltimore favored by 2 1/2

The Chargers win two straight games against teams with a combined record of 9-18 and everyone wants to start up the "here come the Chargers" nonsense. The Chargers get to face a big boy team Sunday night, and when the clock is winding down and Philip Rivers is making guh huh face, and Norv Tuner appears flummoxed, people will wonder why the hell they ever keep believing in the Chargers.

Prediction: Baltimore 23, San Diego 16

Monday, December 19

Pittsburgh (10-3) at San Francisco (10-3), No Line

Last week's loss was brutal for the 49ers. You can't lose when you are up 19-7 in the second half against a team being quarterbacked by John Skelton. Red zone problems are plaguing the 49ers right now and it finally cost them. The 49ers have no problem scoring outside the red zone but getting touchdowns inside the 20 has become almost impossible for them. Now they are tied with the Saints for the number two spot in the playoffs and have to host the 10-3 Steelers on Monday night. Ben Roethlisberger is questionable but I expect him to play, so it will be up to the 49ers defense, and Aldon Smith and Justin Smith to make Ben have to move around on his bum ankle. This will be a defensive slugfest and the winner will be the team that makes the fewest mistakes. The Niners need a win badly, because a loss all but guarantees they won't get a first round bye and will have to go to New Orleans if they win their Wild Card game. The Steelers will be just as desperate as they try to keep pace with the Ravens in the AFC North. This will feel like an old school Monday night game. I like the Niners, for no other reason than being a homer.

Prediction: San Francisco 17, Pittsburgh 16

Last Week Straight Up: 13-3
Overall Straight Up: 132-76

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7
Overall Against the Spread: 106-97-5

The Hail Mary - Week 14

The final turn of the NFL season begins with Week 14 and the final quarter of the season. Only two out of the twelve playoff spots available have been clinched and more than half of the league is still in contention to try to make it. This weekend is highlighted by the Cowboys hosting the Giants in an NFC East battle. The Cowboys can put a stranglehold on the division with a win, while a loss would have them in second place. A prime example of how thin the margin for error is this time of year in the NFL.


Week 14 - Sunday, December 11

Houston (9-3) at Cincinnati (7-5), Cincinnati favored by 3 1/2

The Houston Texans keep proving me wrong week after week. Down to their third string quarterback and with a hobbling Andre Johnson they still managed to defeat a good Atlanta Falcons team. The defense under Wade Phillips continues to shine and might be good enough to carry the Texans to a playoff bye in the highly competitive AFC. The Bengals were thrashed by the Steelers and have only beaten one team with a winning record all season. They are locked in a four way tie for the final playoff spot so every game is basically a must win for them right now. I'm tired of being wrong and picking against the Texans, they just keep finding ways to win.

Prediction: Houston 19, Cincinnati 16

Minnesota (2-10) at Detroit (7-5), No Line

The Detroit Lions appear to be a team that is not ready for prime time. They continuously shoot themselves in the foot with stupid penalty after stupid penalty. It all starts with their wussy head coach Jim Schwartz. He acts out of control so of course the Lions follow his lead. He already corrupted the previously angelic like Ndamukong Suh. The Lions have a bumpy road in the last four so they have to take advantage of games like these that they should win. Leslie Frazier has been an abomination this year as coach, making dumb decisions on a consistent basis, he will probably blunder something in this game to hand the Lions the win.

Prediction: Detroit 27, Minnesota 20

New Orleans (9-3) at Tennessee (7-5), New Orleans favored by 3 1/2

The Saints are on fire and appear unbeatable at home. It is crucial for the 49ers that they hold off the Saints for the number two seed, because the Niners trying to win in the Superdome would probably be too tall of a task. The Saints have had their struggles on the road, with losses to 2-10 St. Louis, and 4-8 Tampa Bay. The Titans were winning with their passing game earlier this season but now they are winning on the back of Chris Johnson. They could be really dangerous if both him and Matt Hasselbeck could be on the same page. I think the Saints have grown as a team since those inexplicable road losses earlier this year and while they won't be as flashy as normal, they will grind out a win over the Titans.

Prediction: New Orleans 24, Tennessee 17

Philadelphia (4-8) at Miami (4-8), Miami favored by 3

Who would have ever guessed that when Miami was 0-7, five weeks later they would have the same record as the Eagles and actually be favored to beat them? The Eagles should have Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin back, but the Dolphins are on a roll right now. For both of these teams its cases of too little, too late.

Prediction: Miami 24, Philadelphia 20

Kansas City (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5), New York Jets favored by 9

The Jets season thus far closely resembles their 2009 campaign. A lot of ups and downs, with them getting hot at just the right time and making the playoffs. They now get to face Tyler Palko and the bumbling Chiefs offense. The most potent play int he Chiefs playbook seems to be the hail mary, so if the Jets can stop that one they should be on their way to their third straight victory.

Prediction: New York Jets 21, Kansas City 13

New England (9-3) at Washington (4-8), New England favored by 8

So that 5-11 I predicted before the season seems very likely for the Redskins. The chances of it happening grew with the suspensions of Trent Williams and Fred Davis for the rest of the season. I am really pissed, not because they are missing real games, but because I needed Fred Davis for my fantasy football playoffs. I am shocked that the line for this game is so low, if I bet on football I would love to take the Pats in this one.

Prediction: New England 28, Washington 17

Atlanta (7-5) at Carolina (4-8), Atlanta favored by 2 1/2

Look at the Panthers turning into road warriors! Ok, sure it was just the Colts and Buccaneers but this team couldn't win on the road at all last season. Earlier this season, they had the Falcons on the ropes in Atlanta but some costly interceptions by Cam Newton cost them the game. They get the Falcons at home this time and could play spoiler. I thought the Falcons were starting to catch fire but that loss at Houston was a little perplexing. The Texans have a very good defense, but good teams don't lose to teams with a third string quarterback. That being said, I like them to squeak this one out.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, Carolina 21

Tampa Bay (4-8) at Jacksonville (3-9), No Line

It's the battle of Florida!

Prediction: Tampa Bay 22, Jacksonville 20

Indianapolis (0-12) at Baltimore (9-3), Baltimore favored by 16 1/2

The Ravens control their own destiny the rest of the way but with the Steelers having mostly a cupcake schedule the pressure is on Baltimore. That pressure won't be felt this weekend as the Colts are a win on everyone's schedule.

Prediction: Baltimore 27, Indianapolis 15

Chicago (7-5) at Denver (7-5), Denver favored by 3 1/2

Bummed that Jay Cutler won't be able to play in what would have been his return to Denver. The game will still be intriguing because of Time Tebow. Each and every week the Broncos find themselves trailing and Tebow brings them back. Keep brushing off the haters Timmy! Caleb Hanie has been terrible thus far and now the Bears also don't have Matt Forte. They hope that Marion Barber can recapture his 2007 form where he was impossible to tackle and constantly trucked defenders.

Prediction: Denver 17, Chicago 13

San Francisco (10-2) at Arizona (5-7), San Francisco favored by 4

This game makes me nervous. The Cardinals have been playing well for quite some time, and people are finally noticing now after they beat the Cowboys. They also have motivation as they have entered themselves back into the playoff race. The Niners shutout the Rams and clinched their first division title since 2002. The offense continues to have problems in the red zone and that is something that needs to get corrected in the last month of the season. The other goal is to get LB Patrick Willis healthy, as he cannot be hurting come playoff time. This will be a good test for the Niners, one I think they will pass.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, Arizona 19

Oakland (7-5) at Green Bay (12-0), Green Bay favored by 11

The only way Green Bay doesn't go 16-0 is if Aaron Rodgers has a bad day. Through 12 games he hasn't had one of those yet and looking at the Packers last four opponents, and with three of those games at home, it appears unlikely he will. The Raiders will play much better this week than they did at Miami last week, but they have too many injuries to play the perfect game that is necessary to beat the Packers.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Oakland 21

Buffalo (5-7) at San Diego (5-7), San Diego favored by 6 1/2

Much like in 2008, the Bills teased their fans with a fast start, only to fizzle out and end up missing the playoffs. Ever since signing that big contract Ryan Fitzpatrick has been completely mediocre and the loss of Fred Jackson certainly didn't help. The Chargers ended a slide of their own against Jacksonville and still have slim playoff hopes. I really hate picking the Chargers to win anything with the bumbling Norv Turner coaching them, but they just can't lose at home to a team that has lost five straight.

Prediction: San Diego 27, Buffalo 17

New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas (7-5), Dallas favored by 3 1/2

I knew the Cowboys weren't a team on the rise as the media had started to portray them during their four game winning streak. However, while I knew the Cardinals would challenge them I thought the Cowboys had what it took to win on the road. However, their head coach is an idiot and though forcing his kicker to make a long field goal was the best course of action. Then he decided that icing him was an even better idea. But with the Giants losing four straight Dallas is still firmly in control of the NFC East. That could change this weekend if they lose at home to the Giants. New York gave the Packers one of their toughest tests of the season which was how they needed to play after looking so dreadful at New Orleans. The records say otherwise but I firmly believe the Giants are a better team than the Cowboys and will prove that Sunday night. I think they will make life miserable for Tony Romo and Eli Manning will pick apart the Cowboys secondary.

Prediction: New York Giants 28, Dallas 21

Monday, December 12

St. Louis (2-10) at Seattle (5-7), No Line

At least Monday Night football with close with a bang the next two weeks, I don't think American can take much more miserable prime time games. Seriously ESPN, you thought at any point this might be an entertaining game? Did you not watch the borefest that was their season finale with a playoff spot on the line last season?

Prediction: Seattle 24, St. Louis 7

Last Week Straight Up: 9-7
Overall Straight Up: 119-73

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7
Overall Against the Spread: 97-90-5

The Hail Mary - Week 13

Week 11 - Sunday, December 4

Tennessee (6-5) at Buffalo (5-6), Buffalo favored by 1 1/2

The Bills season has gone off the rails as they enter this game losers of four straight. They had a great opportunity to get a season changing win at the Jets but Stevie Johnson dropped too many passes, and the defense couldn't get stops when they needed it. Must win games is a term that is thrown around all of the time but in reality, a loss here and the Bills will be playing out the string in the last four. The Titans are just a game out of a playoff spot, despite getting sub par quarterback play from Matt Hasselbeck in recent weeks. Chris Johnson had his best game of the season last weekend, but it might have been a mirage because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are atrocious against the run. The Bills have been much better at home all season, so I think this is the spot to end their losing streak. Ryan Fitzpatrick had his best game in over a month last weekend and I expect that momentum to carry over.

Prediction: Buffalo 23, Tennessee 16

Kansas City (4-7) at Chicago (7-4), Chicago favored by 8

This one will be ugly. The Caleb Hanie experience got off to a sluggish start at Oakland last week. Hanie's favorite target is obviously Johnny Knox but his other favorite targets were the Raiders defenders. Hanie's turnovers are what cost the Bears a game they had a great chance at winning. The Chiefs hung around at home against Pittsburgh but their backup quarterback Tyler Palko was also a turnover machine. I would be shocked if Kyle Orton doesn't get the start in this game, although the Chiefs season is basically dead. Talk about ups and downs, three straight losses to start the season, followed by four straight wins, and then a four game losing streak. The Bears at least have a running game when they decided to use it with Matt Forte, I expect Forte to be the key reason the Bears win this one.

Prediction: Chicago 21, Kansas City 14

Oakland (7-4) at Miami (3-8), Miami favored by 3

Peter King loves the Dolphins and if his predictions came true they would probably be 16-0. They have looked much better for the past month, but they are still a 3-8 football team and moral victories are for little kids. The Raiders are winning behind their special teams with punter Shane Lechler and kicker Sebastian Janikowski getting recognition for their awesome play. Michael Bush has also filled in more than capably for Darren McFadden, while Carson Palmer has been steady at quarterback. The Raiders have to be considered the front runners for the AFC West.

Prediction: Oakland 24, Miami 20

Denver (6-5) at Minnesota (2-9), No Line

That being said, don't count out the Denver Tebows. He doesn't look like your typical quarterback but his team is winning games and even worse he is openly religious. People can't stand it. Anyone willing to pick against the Broncos right now is insane. The defense has been a huge reason for their recent success, but its no coincidence that the team is 5-1 since Tebow took over, and were just 1-4 when the prototypical quarterback Kyle Orton was at the controls.

Prediction: Denver 20, Minnesota 13

Indianapolis (0-11) at New England (8-3), New England favored by 20 1/2

Boy did this rivalry die quickly. The Colts look poised to go 0-16 and I certainly could see them losing by more than 20 to the Patriots. However, that is an extreme number and Vegas knows people will be hesitant to bet the Patriots. Bill Belichick can lie through his teeth about this Colts team being similar to the ones they played in the past but everyone knows the truth. A fun bet for this game would be an over/under on number of times Colts quarterback Dan Orlovsky runs out the back of his end zone.

Prediction: New England 30, Indianapolis 10

Cincinnati (7-4) at Pittsburgh (8-3), Pittsburgh favored by 6 1/2

The Bengals are a fun team to watch, especially their rookie tandem on offense, QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green. They are a team to watch in the future, if they can overcome being the Bengals. They are on the precipice of being a contender but as was shown when they lost to Pittsburgh and Baltimore a few weeks ago, not quite there. I expect this game to follow that same pattern. The Bengals will hang around and keep it interesting
but fall just short in the end.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Cincinnati 24

Carolina (3-8) at Tampa Bay (4-7), Tampa Bay favored by 3 1/2

The Bucs have imploded this year and QB Josh Freeman has regressed badly. Although, maybe last seasons 10-6 record was really just a symptom of an easy schedule. The Bucs do have talent, but they haven't been able to put it all together, especially on defense. Home cooking should do them some good against a Carolina team that usually keeps it close but still is learning how to win.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 27, Carolina 24

New York Jets (6-5) at Washington (4-7), New York Jets favored by 3

Maybe I just shouldn't watch Skins games. I only saw bits and pieces of the Seattle game on Red Zone last weekend. When I saw they were trailing 17-7 in the 4th I assumed it was another loss. However, to the Skins credit they kept fighting and ended their six game losing streak. The talk for this week's game against the Jets has been how fun or miserable it will be to watch two inconsistent quarterbacks do battle. I expect to see a few interceptions from both quarterbacks, and strong defensive efforts from both teams. It will be a good test for new Redskins RB Roy Helu, who finally got a start last weekend about two months too late. The difference will be that the Jets know how to close out a game, while the Redskins usually find ways to blow games.

Prediction: New York Jets 21, Washington 17

Atlanta (7-4) at Houston (8-3), Atlanta favored by 2 1/2

Houston is down their third string quarterback, rookie T.J. Yates out of North Carolina. Yates actually performed pretty well when pressed into duty at Jacksonville last week. He really only has to be serviceable because the defense continues to play outstanding for the Texans. Unfortunately, the level of opponent this week is quite a step up from Jacksonville. The Falcons are depleted in their secondary, and if Schaub was starting or maybe Leinart I would like the Texans. But I believe Yates will be rattled by the Atlanta defensive front and make some mistakes. Offensively for the Falcons, Matt Ryan is playing very well right now and I expect him to make enough plays on the Houston defense to give the Falcons their third straight victory.

Prediction: Atlanta 23, Houston 13

Baltimore (8-3) at Cleveland (4-7), Baltimore favored by 6

It wouldn't shock me if the Ravens lose this game. Their modus operandi all season has been to win a big game, then lose to a bummy team. I just have no faith in the Cleveland Browns being able to capitalize on the Ravens inconsistency. The Ravens will let it be closer than it should be, but I think Ray Rice has a 100-yard game in him and will pound the Browns into submission.

Prediction: Baltimore 20, Cleveland 17

Green Bay (11-0) at New York Giants (6-5), Green Bay favored by 7

Seems that some people like the Giants to be the ones to hand the Packers their first loss. I haven't seen anything out of the Giants the last two weeks that would indicate to me they are up to that task. The performance against the Saints last weekend was pathetic, and if their defense thought the Saints offense was a juggernaut they need to be aware that the Packers are even better. I foolishly picked against Green Bay last weekend, but no more, Aaron Rodgers is just playing too well right now.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, New York Giants 26

Dallas (7-4) at Arizona (4-7), Dallas favored by 4 1/2

The Cardinals are expecting to have Kevin Kolb back as the starter when they welcome Dallas. Kolb isn't great but he is a definite step up from John Skelton. The Cowboys have won four in a row but haven't been that impressive against pretty bad teams the last two weeks. The Cardinals always play much tougher at home so I expect this to be a close game. I think it will come down to Dan Bailey's leg for the third straight week.

Prediction: Dallas 30, Arizona 27

St. Louis (2-9) at San Francisco (9-2), San Francisco favored by 13

The Niners saw their eight game winning streak go by the wayside at Baltimore last week. It was a tall task, asking them to go cross country on a short week and beat a very good team. I liked that the Niners were competitive and in the game until the final few minutes. I didn't like how poorly the offensive line played. The Ravens have a very talented defense, but the Niners offensive line has no excuse for letting Alex Smith get sacked nine times. I think the Niners will be rested and ready to beat up on a lifeless, poor Rams team at home. Plus, a win will bring them their first division title since 2002.

Prediction: San Francisco 27, St. Louis 10

Detroit (7-4) at New Orleans (8-3), New Orleans favored by 9

Nice that this game could be flexed into Sunday night in favor of the Colts/Patriots smushsmortion. I am not too sure this game will be ultra competitive though. The Lions defense will be without Ndamukong Suh, who foolishly stepped on an opposing player last week. I had defended Suh because he never seemed like a dirty player in college at Nebraska, but he definitely crossed the line last week and a 2-game suspension seems fair. The Lions are just 2-4 in their last six and most of that can be attributed to the struggles of QB Matthew Stafford. After a fast start he has been a turnover machine the last six weeks. The Lions lack of a running game is also starting to effect them. The Saints offense is like a machine when they play at home and are almost unstoppable at times. They are also getting healthy and might be peaking at just the right time.

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Detroit 20

Monday, December 5

San Diego (4-7) at Jacksonville (3-8), San Diego favored by 2 1/2

The Chargers are a joke and Norv Turner should be soon going the way of the Jaguars former coach Jack Del Rio. I am probably foolish to pick them to win this game, but they aren't going to finish 4-12 and have to find another win somewhere. Signing LB Takeo Spikes was a huge mistake, no matter where he goes, he sees the same hoes, I mean misses the playoffs.

Prediction: San Diego 24, Jacksonville 14

Last Week Straight Up: 10-6
Overall Straight Up: 110-66

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-6
Overall Against the Spread: 88-83-5