The Hail Mary - Week 5

Sunday, October 11

Washington (2-2) at Atlanta (4-0), Atlanta favored by 7 1/2

This is like a reunion game as former Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and former Redskins receiver Leonard Hankerson now are with the Falcons. So far both of them are thriving. The Falcons offense has been on fire and is a large reason Atlanta is 4-0. Hankerson has surpassed Roddy White as Matt Ryan's number two target, something White is understandably not too pleased about. So far White's objections to his reduced role in the offense haven't been a distraction but it is definitely something to watch as the season goes on. The Redskins are coming off a strong team win against Philadelphia. They got a lead early and predictably lost that lead. But what was different this time was they were able to mount a game winning drive and get the win. Kirk Cousins and Pierre Garcon were excellent on that final drive. Cousins played well last week but we know he can play well at times. He has not yet been able to play well consistently and over consecutive games. The Falcons don't have a very good defense, so Cousins will have every opportunity to play well again this weekend. He would be helped by the return of DeSean Jackson, who has been saying it is his possible he could play, but I don't think that is something Washington can count on. I expect Ryan to make some big plays against the Skins hurting secondary, especially Julio Jones. I also think Hank will be hankerin' (see what I did there) to get some revenge against his former team and will make an impact as well. Then you can't forget about Falcons RB Devonta Freeman who has three rushing touchdowns in each of his last two games. The Falcons just have so many weapons offensively, I don't think Washington will be able to keep up.

Prediction: Atlanta 34, Washington 27

New Orleans (1-3) at Philadelphia (1-3), Philadelphia favored by 5

Maybe this will finally be the week the Eagles offense puts it all together for an entire game. They will have a great shot against a Saints defense that made even Brandon Weeden look competent last Sunday night. Fortunately, for the Saints, Drew Brees had a throwback type of performance and helped carry New Orleans to their first win of the season. This will be a desperation game, as the loser will sit at 1-4 and have a huge hole to try to climb out of to get in the playoff picture. Each offense has weapons galore but where the Eagles have the advantage is defensively. Their secondary isn't very good but their defensive front has been excellent at stopping the run this season. This game will come down to which offense shoots itself in the foot less, specifically by turning the ball over. The Eagles better start off well or it will feel like a road game for them because the boss will be raining down. Sam Bradford threw three touchdown passes last week and I think he can do something similar against a leaky Saints secondary.

Prediction: Philadelphia 28, New Orleans 24

Chicago (1-3) at Kansas City (1-3), Kansas City favored by 9 1/2

Somewhat surprisingly the Bears got Jay Cutler back last week and he played well enough to help lead Chicago to their first win of the year. The Chiefs are desperate for a win as they are currently on a three game losing streak. They were manhandled by the Bengals last week and the offense could only manage seven field goals. Chicago's defense actually stepped up and played well against a hot Oakland offense, which was surprising because they had spent the week leading up to the game having a fire sale of their big name defensive players. The Chiefs are typically a pretty good home team and play three of their next four games at Arrowhead. This will be a crucial four game stretch for them to salvage their season. Their defense has struggled but I think they can cause bad Jay Cutler to show up and force Cutler into some interceptions and mistakes that will be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Kansas City 31, Chicago 17

Seattle (2-2) at Cincinnati (4-0), Cincinnati favored by 3

The argument could be made that right now the Bengals are the best team in football. They get to test themselves against the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks. After an 0-2 start Seattle has climbed back to 2-2 but last week's win against Detroit was aided by a horrible officiating gaffe. Despite it being painfully obvious that K.J. Wright had illegally batted the ball out of the end zone to cause a touchback, it went uncalled. I mean he literally swung at it like it was baseball and he had a bat, how do you miss that when you are staring right at it? The Seahawks have had a hell of a time protecting Russell Wilson and I expect the Bengals fearsome front line to have a field day pressuring Wilson. Marshawn Lynch missed last week's game and is questionable, but he can't return soon enough for the Seahawks offense. This game will also serve as a good test for Andy Dalton. Dalton is off to a highly impressive start to the season, and if he can put up solid numbers against the Seahawks, it might be time to admit that Dalton has made a leap as a quarterback.

Prediction: Cincinnati 21, Seattle 17

Jacksonville (1-3) at Tampa Bay (1-3), Tampa Bay favored by 3

Bloof Bortles has played well enough that I now have given him back his last name. The results aren't there yet for the Jaguars but you can't blame Bortles. Based on how poorly Jameis Winston has played at times this year maybe I should change his name too. He has given pundits like me plenty of material for a nickname with his personal life hijinx. Looking ahead, this will be the Buccaneers best chance at a win for a long time and if they are smart they will focus on feeding the ball to Doug Martin and Charles Sims and ride them to victory.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 15, Jacksonville 13

Cleveland (1-3) at Baltimore (1-3), Baltimore favored by 6 1/2

Baltimore saved their season last Thursday against Pittsburgh thanks to Josh Scobee forgetting how to hit field goals. Despite what Snoop Dog had to say Scobee was actually very good in Jacksonville, but he wasn't able to transfer that success to Pittsburgh. But getting back to Ravens/Browns, now Baltimore will try to win another divisional game and this time they will have to do it without Steve Smith Sr. who has a very hurt back. The biggest positive for the Ravens coming out of the Steelers game was Justin Forsett finally showing up for the offense. The Ravens have the most nondescript group of receivers in the league so it is imperative for their offense that the line gives Forsett the lanes he needs to run the ball effectively. The Browns fought valiantly in San Diego and then lost like only the Browns, and maybe the Lions can. San Diego missed a game winning field goal but the Browns were offside and the Chargers hit the do over field goal to win the game. Mike Pettine wants you to know that Joe Haden is not a pussy and he will play if he feels up to it on Sunday. A broken down Haden should be able to cover guys like Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown and newly acquired Chris Givens. Still, they're the Browns so they will find some way to screw up and lose this game.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Cleveland 21

St. Louis (2-2) at Green Bay (4-0), Green Bay favored by 9

Just when I thought I had the Rams figured out as pretenders they go and beat Arizona on the road. Now with that being said in this column last week I did question just how good Arizona was and it looks like I might have been right. The Rams, specifically their defense, faces the hardest test in football right now this week when they travel to Lambeau Field. Get Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense on the road and they look mortal. But face them at Lambeau, and Rodgers is as close to perfection and unstoppable as you can get. If the Rams defense can somewhat contain the Packers, they might have a chance.The Rams offense showed a pulse last week as Todd Gurley emerged on the scene in the second half, helping St. Louis hold on to the win. Nick Foles has also been pretty good thus far, and the Rams seem to be finding new ways to keep Tavon Austin involved. Austin has always shown flashes but never been consistent. I think the Rams will give a decent accounting of themselves but no one is beating Rodgers at Lambeau right now.

Prediction: Green Bay 35, St. Louis 20

Buffalo (2-2) at Tennessee (1-2), Buffalo favored by 2 1/2

I think myself and the majority of people underestimated how much the Bills offense would miss Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy. They could do next to nothing on offense against a Giants defense that is decent, but nothing special. McCoy is definitely out for this game and Watkins is doubtful. Then you have McCoy's backup Karlos Williams, who suffered a concussion last week and he is questionable for the game Sunday. That would leave Boobie Dixon as the starter and Tyrod Taylor in a whole heap of trouble. The Titans are coming off their bye week and we will see if the week off taught them anything about finishing games. They had the Colts dead to rights a few weeks ago and let them off the hook. If they have been paying attention they will try to entice the Bills, specifically their defense, into silly penalties. Rex Ryan is okay with penalties though as long as his team cares or some such nonsense. With so many injuries on offense, I think the Bills will be tough pressed to go on the road and win this one, even against an inexperienced quarterback like Marcus Mariota.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Buffalo 22

Arizona (3-1) at Detroit (0-4), Arizona favored by 2 1/2

The media might have to pump the brakes on anointing the Cardinals as the Super Bowl champs after their loss to the Rams last week. I have a feeling some of the Cardinals players were starting to buy into their own hype. After being served some humble pie last week, I expect a more focused Cardinals team when they face the beaten down Lions in Detroit. Detroit dropped to 0-4. their season already over in early October. Now their focus is on just getting a win at some point. They were hosed by the referees last Monday despite a respectable performance at Seattle. If they had a better, more inspiring coach than sleepy Jim Caldwell I might believe the Lions could turn things around. Their offense is non-existent and it looks like the Lions might be lucky to win 4 or 5 games this year.

Prediction: Arizona 27, Detroit 17

New England (3-0) at Dallas (2-2), New England favored by 8 1/2

This game would be more fun if it were Tom Brady going up against Tony Romo. The Cowboys are just a few weeks from getting Dez Bryant back, but how effective will he be with Brandon Weeden throwing him the ball? Weeden hasn't been terrible in his two starts, but it is hard to believe that they wouldn't have won at least one of their past two games if Romo were still under center. The Patriots offense has been blowing by teams the first three weeks and already has some bored media types asking if they could go 16-0 this year. That won't be happening, but facing a mediocre at best Cowboys defense should lead to plenty of production from Brady, Rob Gronkowski and even up and coming running back Dion Lewis. The Cowboys will have Greg Hardy making his season debut after a 4 game suspension and also Rolando McClain returning from a suspension of his own. They will make a difference as the season goes on but they will be rusty Sunday and I don't expect them to be much of a factor.

Prediction: New England 38, Dallas 24

Denver (4-0) at Oakland (2-2), Denver favored by 4 1/2

This game should tell us a lot about how the Raiders are progressing as they try to turn themselves from constant laughingstock to contenders. Their quest hit a road bump last week when they lost to the winless Bears. QB Derek Carr showed the inconsistency that comes with a second year quarterback, as after two strong games, he and the rest of the offense couldn't get much going against a poor Bears defense. The Broncos offense was back to struggling last week, although Ronnie Hillman is making it clearer by the week that he should be starting over C.J. Anderson at running back. Peyton Manning has had his way against the Raiders over the last few years, but I think the Raiders defense will cause Manning to struggle again, and it will be up to Hillman to keep his running going, allowing Denver to escape with a win.

Prediction: Denver 23, Oakland 20

San Francisco (1-3) at New York Giants (2-2), New York Giants favored by 7

So the 49ers get a chance to show a national television audience just how terrible they are. NBC probably wishes this game was scheduled for later in the season so they could flex out of it. Colin Kaepernick should be thankful that Blaine Gabbert is his backup or else he might have been replaced by now. Somehow, Gabbert is probably far worse than Kap. The 49ers offense has put up 10 total points in their past two games. They can't throw or run the ball. Last week against the Packers, the one bright spot was the defense put in their first respectable performance since the opener against the Vikings. The Giants are on a two game winning streak and Eli Manning is off to a start that resembles how he plays in the playoffs when the Giants fluke their way to Super Bowls. The 49ers secondary will have their hands full with Odell Beckham Jr. and also need to keep their attention on the fast rising Reuben Randle. It would be nice if Carlos Hyde could get going running the ball again but it is next to impossible when a defense knows you have a quarterback who can't get the ball downfield. It is quite amazing the fall from grace Kap has had the past few seasons. I expect another long, frustrating three hours of Niner watching on Sunday night.

Prediction: New York Giants 23, San Francisco 10


Monday, October 12

Pittsburgh (2-2) at San Diego (2-2), San Diego favored by 3

The Steelers offense, specifically Le'Veon Bell showed flashes against Baltimore, but it is obvious that with Mike Vick under center the offense is far less potent. Antonio Brown disappeared for long stretches of the game, something that Steelers fans haven't seen in years. The defense continues to have trouble stopping the run, which may mean we finally see Melvin Gordon resemble the running back he was in college. Through four games, he has yet to score a touchdown or clear 100 yards rushing. Part of that is because Danny Woodhead is sharing touches with him, but Gordon seems to be running tentatively and not like the power back he was at Wisconsin. Philip Rivers can still sling it with the best of them but I think the run is the key to the Chargers winning this game and not the pass. I expect Vick to look a little more comfortable this week, but field goals probably will remain an adventure for Pittsburgh, even with a new kicker. This should be a close game and the Steelers inability to get points any time they have a chance will likely come back to haunt them.

Prediction: San Diego 29, Pittsburgh 23

Last Week Straight Up: 10-5
Overall Straight Up: 41-22

Last Week Against the Spread: 4-11
Overall Against the Spread: 31-31-1

Cram Session - Week 6

Thursday, October 8

Indianapolis (2-2) at Houston (1-3), Pick Em'

The Colts survived a week without Andrew Luck and moved back to .500 after an 0-2 start to the season. It looks like Luck will be back under center tonight in another divisional matchup, this time against the Texans and their hapless defense. I don't think giving up an average of 27 points per game was what Houston had in mind when they selected Jadaveon Clowney to join J.J. Watt. Thankfully for the Texans the AFC South is a dumpster fire and with a win tonight, Houston would remain in the thick of things for the division crown. That would mean they have to beat Indianapolis which has a 15 game divisional winning streak. This game will also be Andre Johnson's homecoming to Houston, but after being held without a catch and not even being targeted in his past two games, I am not sure anyone will notice. After this game the Colts play seven straight non divisional games, and that is when we will truly find out of if the Colts are contenders or fluke fraud pretenders.

Prediction: Houston 26, Indianapolis 22

Games That Matter To Me

Navy (4-0) at #15 Notre Dame (4-1)

Notre Dame was behind the eight ball almost immediately at Clemson and despite their best efforts to fight back and win the game, they fell short. The Irish were undone by their four turnovers and also the inability of the offense to get a running game going. It brought back nightmarish memories to the Irish's late season collapse last season after a 5-0 start to the year. Notre Dame better have gotten over that tough loss quickly though, because Navy is coming to town and if recent history is any indication it means the Irish are in for a fight. People still dismiss Navy as just a service academy team, but they haven't been paying attention for the better part of a decade. Vegas is definitely not paying attention as I can't understand why they think the Irish are two touchdown favorites. Every year the Irish know exactly what to expect from Navy and every year they usually struggle to stop the Midshipmen offense. A lot of that credit goes to Navy QB Keenan Reynolds. Reynolds has been on fire this year, rushing for 9 touchdowns this season, including 5 in a win against East Carolina a couple weeks ago. Even a quiet game like last week against Air Force where he was held without a rushing touchdown still amounted to his highest rushing yardage of the season. Where the Irish should win the game is their ability to overwhelm Navy's offense. Notre Dame will be bigger at every position and that should mean plenty of opportunities for C.J. Prosise and Will Fuller. Everyone wants to talk about are the Irish still playoff contenders, but to me, they have seven games left this season and cliche as it is, they need to take it one week at a time. If they handle their business, everything else will take care of itself. That starts with not overlooking Navy and being ready for a fight on Saturday.

Prediction: Notre Dame 30, Navy 24

Wisconsin (3-2, 0-1) at Nebraska (2-3, 0-1)

This game has sure lost the luster it looked like it might have prior to the season starting. The Huskers have been terrible this season and Wisconsin hasn't been much better. Each team has had a different set of issues. The Badgers have struggled mightily offensively, while the Huskers have been terrible defensively. The Huskers haven't just been losing games, they have been finding new ways to make their losses even more gut wrenching each week. This last game against Illinois saw Nebraska blow a 13-0 4th quarter lead, including a final drive where once again the secondary allowed a receiver to get behind them on a deep ball, when it was obvious that the play would be a deep pass. The conditions were not ideal but Tommy Armstrong had one of the worst games of his career, including a brain dead decision late in the game to throw the ball when the Huskers were trying to bleed the clock. The Huskers clearly miss Ameer Abdullah, as his replacement Terrell Newby has not yet found his groove. Nebraska will have its work cut out for them against a Badgers defense that is allowing just 9.6 points and 278 yards per game. Nebraska should try to commit to the run in this game, and stick with it, even if it isn't working right away. Then that can open up opportunities for Jordan Westerkamp and Brandon Reilly. This is the first true road game of the season for Wisconsin and like Nebraska they miss their big time back Melvin Gordon. Besides one game against Hawaii, Taiwan Deal hasn't gotten much traction. Without a run game, it is exposing QB Joel Stave. Stave was especially bad last week at home against Iowa, throwing two interceptions. However, the Huskers secondary may be the cure he needs for his ails. I went back and forth on my prediction for this one. Both teams are equally mediocre so I lean towards the Huskers homefield advantage. It isn't nearly what it was once was, but it should count for something on Saturday, Lord help Mike Riley if it doesn't.

Prediction: Nebraska 27, Wisconsin 23


Top 10

Maryland (2-3, 0-1) at #1 Ohio State (5-0, 1-0)

My gut was telling me to pick a close game between Indiana and Ohio State and I didn't listen! Ohio State had to get a goal line stop at the end of the game to avoid going to overtime with the Hoosiers. Cardale Jones was uneven once again but Ezekiel Elliott was a wrecking ball and you could say literally carried the Buckeyes to victory. The Maryland Terrapins are a dumpster fire and if Ohio State can't beat this sorry squad at home by at least three touchdowns it is time for another team to be placed number one in the country.

Prediction: Ohio State 45, Maryland 14

#2 TCU (5-0, 2-0) at Kansas State (3-1, 0-1)

The Horned Frogs have been tested on the road and so far have scraped by, but that all could end in Manhattan, KS on Saturday night. The Wildcats gave Oklahoma State all they could handle in Stillwater, despite dealing with more injuries at the quarterback position. Joe Hubener will make the start in this game. Hubener was hurt early in the game against Oklahoma State, replaced by Kody Cook and then inserted back in the game when Cook was injured. Hubener was the backup to start the season but the Wildcats have remained very competitive despite all the injuries and uncertainty at the most key position on the field. A lot of that is due to their recently turned 76-year old coach Bill Snyder. The Wildcats offensive weapons don't wow you but TCU has been dealing with a ton of injuries to their defense and have been a revolving door for offenses playing against them. TCU's offensive weapons like Trevone Boykin, RB Aaron Green and WR Josh Doctson will make their share of plays but I can't believe that they can just go through this entire season unscathed winning shootouts. TCU got a lucky bounce against Texas Tech on the road in order to win and I feel Kansas State is a much better team. Sometimes you have to be bold and pick the upset.

Prediction: Kansas State 48, TCU 44

#3 Baylor (4-0, 1-0) at Kansas (0-4, 0-1)

Baylor's lowest output offensively thus far this season is 56 points. I feel confident in saying they won't score less than than against winless Kansas. The Jayhawks are facing the real possibility of going 0-12 after dropping all three of their non-conference games. Baylor's offensive stats are insane, WR Corey Coleman already has 11 touchdowns this season and quarterback Seth Russell has thrown 19 touchdowns.

Prediction: Baylor 66, Kansas 21

#4 Michigan State (5-0, 1-0) at Rutgers (2-2, 0-1)

Somehow the Spartans could only beat terrible, awful Purdue by three at home. Their one signature win this year, at home against Oregon, looks meaningless now after the way the Ducks were killed by Utah. They have a week to get things right as they go to Michigan next week and right now I would have no hesitancy picking the Wolverines to win that game. A night game at Rutgers looms as a trap game, but Rutgers is pretty terrible and I am giving Sparty the benefit of the doubt that they won't lay another egg on Saturday.

Prediction: Michigan State 31, Rutgers 14

#23 California (5-0, 2-0) at #5 Utah (4-0, 1-0)

The Golden Bears are 5-0 but after years of being a downtrodden program some questions still remain about just how legitimate of a team they really are. Where there aren't questions are about their QB Jared Goff. The junior has started the year on fire with 15 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and a 70% completion percentage. Goff's favorite target is WR Kenny Lawler, who leads the Golden Bears with 8 receiving touchdowns. The Utes had a bye after thrashing Oregon on the road, a win that catapulted them all the way to number five in the polls. The Utes now go from being the hunters to the hunted and it will be interesting to see how they respond, starting with this game. Utah has one of the better defenses in the country, so it will be intriguing to see how they do in containing Goff and Lawler. Utah is more of a power running team than a passing team and average more yards per game through the ground than through the air. QB Travis Wilson personifies this as teams usually have to be more concerned with his legs than his arm. Wilson burned the Ducks to the tune of 100 yards rushing and a touchdown, averaging almost 17 yards per carry. I think the bye week will serve Utah well and gave them a chance to refocus after a huge win. It will prevent this game from being a letdown spot and the Utes should relatively cruise to their fifth win of the season.

Prediction: Utah 38, California 24

Georgia Tech (2-3, 0-2) at #6 Clemson (4-0, 1-0)

Next time I start to annoint a team based on a couple of blowouts against poor competition, I need to remind myself of the fluke frauds that Georgia Tech have turned out to be. The Yellow Jackets have lost three games in a row since they started playing teams with a pulse. The Tigers nearly pulled a Clemson last week and blew a big lead against the Irish. They were saved by some questionable play calling by Notre Dame and remained in the thick of the playoff race. As coach Dabo Swinney continues to try to remake Clemson's image, this is another spot where the Tigers can do that. A lot of energy went into the Notre Dame game, so this could be a letdown spot. The fact is though that the Yellow Jackets are so bad, Clemson could let down and still win by double digits.

Prediction: Clemson 41, Georgia Tech 24

#7 LSU (4-0, 2-0) "at" South Carolina (2-3, 0-3)

This game has been moved from Columbia, SC to Baton Rouge, LA due to the flooding that hit Columbia last week. Things are getting ugly for Steve Spurrier. The only remaining SEC game that the Gamecocks are likely to be favored in is when they play Vanderbilt. Everyone thinks Spurrier is hilarious when he pops off on other coaches struggles, so I hope some of those coaches take the time to talk back now that Spurrier coaches a horrible team. RB Leonard Fournette continued his streak of 200 yard plus rushing games and has to be the Heisman favorite at this point. The Tigers have to thank their lucky stars for him beacuse without him, they might average about 7 points a game with the woeful Brandon Harris at quarterback. It is amazing what Fournette does week after week because the Tigers have no passing game to speak of. Because of that they don't really blow out teams so I expect the Gamecocks to hang around at home, but LSU to ultimately win rather comfortably.

Prediction: LSU 32, South Carolina 20

Arkansas (2-3, 1-1) at #8 Alabama (4-1, 1-1)

Bret Bielema and Arkansas got a much needed win against Tennessee last week, while Alabama told Vegas to never make them underdogs again, decimating Georgia on the road 38-10. Nick Saban took great delight in telling the media how wrong they were to try to count his team out. I saw one ridiculous headline last week asking if Nick Saban might be in trouble if Alabama lost that game to Georgia. I guess we will never find out (sarcasm). Arkansas has more talent than their 2-3 record would suggest and statistically they are pretty even with the Crimson Tide. The Razorbacks quarterback/running back combo of Brandon Allen and Alex Collins isn't far off from Bama's combo of Jake Coker and Derrick Henry. The difference in this game will be defense, as the Tide have a far better defense than the Razorbacks. No disrespect to the newly ranked Toledo Rockets but if you can't beat Toledo at home, you don't have a prayer of beating Alabama on the road.

Prediction: Alabama 34, Arkansas 20

#10 Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0) "at" Texas (1-4, 0-2) in Dallas, Texas

Boy is it getting ugly in Austin. In the midst of being thrashed by TCU, Texas CB Kris Boyd retweeted a tweet at halftime talking about transferring. He has since apologized of course and I give him credit at least for not claiming he was hacked. Oklahoma was pretty under the radar for most of the season but has cracked the top 10 after crushing West Virginia at home. Now there is talk of the Sooners being a playoff contender but if you know a Bob Stoops coached team, they will likely find one or two games to lose that they should win. However, this rivalry game will not be one of them. The Longhorns crappy defense will have no answer for the Sooners high powered offense led by QB Baker Mayfield.

Prediction: Oklahoma 46, Texas 16

Last Week: 7-3
Overall: 43-9

The Hail Mary - Week 4

Sunday, October 4

New York Jets (2-1) "at" Miami (1-2) in London, England, New York Jets favored by 1 1/2

Can the Dolphins leave Joe Philbin behind in London? Dolphins owner Stephen Ross seems to be the only person who has any confidence that Philbin can lead the Dolphins to the playoffs. Unfortunately for Dolphins fans he is the one who makes the decision. The Dolphins had an embarrassing home opener against Buffalo last week. Both the offense and defense were abysmal. They desperately need a win this week so they can remain at their usual mediocre level and not start to fall out of the picture. They won't be winning the AFC East, so it is all about trying to get a Wild Card spot. They desperately need to find a way to get Lamar Miller going so that Ryan Tannehill isn't forced to throw the ball all game. The Jets feel good vibes evaporated pretty quickly last Sunday when fell behind Philadelphia at home 24-0. They eventually made a game of it, but it was still a terribly disappointing defeat. They saw bad Ryan Fitzpatrick in that game and Brandon Marshall made some really boneheaded plays. Marshall will be eager to put up some big numbers against one of his former teams this week. The Jets are hopeful that Eric Decker and Chris Ivory can return to the lineup as it was painfully obvious how much they missed the two of them in the loss. The London games are always weird, so I will pick a semi weird result, a Dolphins victory.

Prediction: Miami 21, New York Jets 17

Philadelphia (1-2) at Washington (1-2), Philadelphia favored by 3

All the good vibes surrounding the Redskins got to last four days before the team reminded their fans why they are such a beaten down group of people. Kirk Cousins was dreadful against the Giants, or back to his normal self. Of course, we all heard from the Cousins excuse makers how the interceptions weren't his fault. That ignores the fact that he had several balls that were underthrown that would have been touchdowns if a halfway decent quarterback had been throwing them. I am no believer in Robert Griffin III anymore, but no one is convincing me that Cousins is any better. The handoff from Alfred Morris to Matt Jones seemed to kick into high gear last week, although Jones continues to struggle holding on to the ball. The Eagles earned themselves a much needed victory last week, largely thanks to defense and special teams. The offense still seems to be in somewhat disarray and the Eagles are waiting to find out if they will be without DeMarco Murray for a second straight week. The Redskins are usually the type of team you get well against, so I am predicting that the Eagles offense has their best, most consistent showing of the season.

Prediction: Philadelphia 32, Washington 24

Jacksonville (1-2) at Indianapolis (1-2), Indianapolis favored by 9

The Colts tour of the AFC South, i.e. their season saver, continues this weekend at home against Jacksonville. The Colts had to scramble to come back to beat the Titans, so while they got the victory, things are still very uneasy in Indy. Andre Johnson apparently left his soul behind in Houston, as he didn't even register a target in the victory. Frank Gore finally made his presence felt with a couple of touchdowns and against a porous Jacksonville defense he should be able to continue his success. Any hopes that the Jags might be turning the corner after their win over the Dolphins died in Week 3. We found out the Dolphins are really bad, and Jacksonville lost to New England by about a gazillion points. Bloof Borkles played reasonably well though and if he keeps it up I might finally give him back his real name. He may play pretty well this weekend against a sorry Indy defense, but I expect Andrew Luck to have his best game of the year and Indianapolis to cruise.

Prediction: Indianapolis 38, Jacksonville 21

New York Giants (1-2) at Buffalo (2-1), Buffalo favored by 5

Tyrod Taylor was excellent against Miami, and the Bills were ferocious on defense and back to resembling the potential playoff contenders we saw in Week 1. The Giants saved their season by defeating the Redskins but they still don't have any answers at running back, just a trio of Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams and Shane Vereen. Vereen's role is at least clear, he is the pass catcher out of the backfield, but neither Williams or Jennings have been able to establish themselves. The early secret in Buffalo is that backup Karlos Williams is outplaying LeSean McCoy, who still seems far away from his 2013 form. The Bills shouldn't play favorites based on pay and if Williams keeps running like he has, he could eventually supplant McCoy. The Bills have no choice but to go with Williams as the lead back this week since McCoy will be out with an injury. With Eli going up against Rex Ryan's influenced Bills defense, I expect him to throw his first interception of the season and make a lot of Eli faces.

Prediction: Buffalo 27, New York Giants 17

Carolina (3-0) at Tampa Bay (1-2), Carolina favored by 3

The Panthers might be the most under the radar and underwhelming 3-0 team in league history. We should find out a lot more about just how legit the Panthers are in October and early November when they play at Seattle and then host the Eagles, Colts and Packers. The Bucs offense continues to struggle and playing at Carolina won't be helpful to Jameis Winston. I wish the Bucs would get Doug Martin going, only because I have him in one of my fantasy leagues. That's about all there is to say about this boring NFC South matchup.

Prediction: Carolina 23, Tampa Bay 12

Oakland (2-1) at Chicago (0-3), Oakland favored by 3

Are the Raiders for real? They have won two straight, although those wins came against teams that are a combined 1-5, while the actual good team they faced in Cincinnati destroyed them. But, they also lost Derek Carr early in that game and I am totally starting to believe that Carr is legit. He quietly had a pretty strong rookie season last year and has carried that over to this season. Amari Cooper is looking like a bonafide number one receiver for Carr and RB Latavius Murray burst onto the scene last week with 139 yards rushing. Forget winning, the Bears just hope to score some points on Sunday. Jimmy Clausen reminded anyone in case they forgot that he is a completely terrible NFL quarterback. The Bears had 10 possessions against Seattle last week and punted on all 10 of those possessions. The team started a fire sale on defense, trading Jared Allen to the Panthers and Jon Bostic to the Patriots. The Bears probably thought they reached rock bottom with their shutout last week, but being underdogs at home to the Raiders? That is truly rock bottom.

Prediction: Oakland 28, Chicago 20

Houston (1-2) at Atlanta (3-0), Atlanta favored by 6 1/2

The Texans got a much needed win against Tampa Bay and Ryan Mallett played well enough that it made me continue to wonder why Bill O'Brien ever named Brian Hoyer the starter. They also are hoping to be able to welcome Arian Foster back to the fold this weekend, which would give their running game a badly needed boost. The Falcons might have discovered the next big thing at running back with Devonta Freeman. Freeman shredded the Cowboys and if he can become a consistent weapon to go with Julio Jones in the passing game the Falcons will be even more dangerous offensively. They still have a ways to go defensively but with how well they are playing offensively and looking at their schedule, 9-0 could be a real possibility for Atlanta.

Prediction: Atlanta 29, Houston 23

Kansas City (1-2) at Cincinnati (3-0), Cincinnati favored by 3 1/2

My AFC West pick desperately needs a win but a week after having to play undefeated Green Bay on the road, now they have to face undefeated Cincinnati on the road. The loss to Green Bay was ugly but one bright spot was that Jeremy Maclin scored a touchdown. That finally put to an end the Chiefs embarrassing string of games without a touchdown by a recover that dated back to 2013. However, their defense, especially their secondary was victimized by Aaron Rodgers. I am not comparing Andy Dalton to Rodgers but with how well Dalton has been playing this season, it could be another tough day at the office for the Chiefs secondary. A.J. Green went off for the Bengals last week against Baltimore and almost was single-handily responsible for the victory. Next week the Bengals host the Seahawks, which could serve as a telling game as far as how serious a contender Cincy is. It is just hard to get excited for their regular season success because it has meant so little the last few seasons. I think Big Red, Andy Reid will coach the Chiefs up this week and they will perform much better than they did Monday, but Cincinnati will remain unbeaten.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Kansas City 24

Cleveland (1-2) at San Diego (1-2), San Diego favored by 8

Injuries have hurt the Chargers early in the season and it started to show itself in their blowout loss at Minnesota last week. Now they return to the friendly confines of home and the even friendlier confines of playing the Cleveland Browns. The Chargers passing game has been strong this season but they really need to get Melvin Gordon and the rushing attack going. The Browns don't do anything well, they stink both offensively and defensively. I think this could be the game where Gordon makes his first real imprint on the NFL and the Chargers should roll to victory.

Prediction: San Diego 35, Cleveland 17

St. Louis (1-2) at Arizona (3-0), Arizona favored by 6 1/2

The Cardinals bandwagon is filling up after they destroyed yet another team last week. There is no denying that Arizona has been impressive, but so far the teams they have beaten have a combined record of 1-8. It should be another easy game on Sunday against the sorry Rams. The Rams still can no nothing offensively and continue to waste a strong defense. Todd Gurley made his season debut last week but after not playing football for a year, he has to deal with rust, as well as getting acclimated to the NFL, so the Rams can't count on any production from him for at least a few more weeks.

Prediction: Arizona 30, St. Louis 16

Green Bay (3-0) at San Francisco (1-2), Green Bay favored by 8 1/2

Colin Kaepernick's streak of owning Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will likely end in a big way on Sunday. It appears the 49ers are as bad as everyone thought they were. They can't cover anyone, can't stop the run, can't pass the ball, can't run the ball, the list goes on and on. Kaepernick was completely atrocious against the Cardinals, but hey, he says he get's to be himself now, so I guess that's cool. The Packers are looking like the best team in football. Their defense is still mediocre and a weird mix between getting pressure and causing turnovers but still allowing a lot of points. But it doesn't really matter because Aaron Rodgers is so damn good. I mean, he's turning James Jones into a Pro Bowler after the guy was cut by two teams this off-season. Eddie Lacy still hasn't really gotten on track, so if he can get some traction, look out NFL. I want to believe that the Niners will at least not embarrass themselves at home, but the fact is Green Bay is an excellent football team and the Niners are a very bad football team. I expect another ugly, long afternoon of watching them get dominated.

Prediction: Green Bay 42, San Francisco 21

Minnesota (2-1) at Denver (3-0), Denver favored by 7

The Broncos may be hitting their stride and it is all because of what appears to be a compromise between Peyton Manning and coach Gary Kubiak. Kubiak prefers his quarterback operate behind the center, while Manning prefers working out of the shotgun. The Broncos offensive line is a bit of a mess at the moment and in the first two games, while Manning was trying to do things Kubiak's way, he was struggling. So Kubiak put Manning in the Pistol against Detroit and Manning had his best game of the season. If the Denver offense can continue to improve the Broncos could be the best team in football because of how strong they are defensively. I think we will know a lot more about Minnesota after this game. Adrian Peterson has been carrying the offense the last two weeks and the play of Teddy Bridgewater is slightly concerning. He hasn't been making the leap I expected to see from him in year two. The Vikings last road game was a disaster, so it will be interesting to see if they can put some of their improved effort from the last two weeks into this game.

Prediction: Denver 23, Minnesota 17

Dallas (2-1) at New Orleans (0-3), Pick Em'

Brandon Weeden versus Luke McCown, on Sunday night! That is a possibility, and I am sure not what the NBC execs had in mind for this Sunday night game. Drew Brees is battling to try to play this week and if he does it would give the game some much needed star power. The Cowboys came flying out of the gates last week in their first game without Tony Romo, as Joseph Randle was running all over Atlanta. But as well as Dallas played in the first half of that game was as bad as they played in the second half, and they eventually lost. Their defense just doesn't appear to be good enough to make up for the pieces Dallas is missing on offense. The Saints have a lot of issues of their own and seem to suck no matter who is quarterbacking. McCown actually played pretty well against Carolina but the Saints defense couldn't get a stop late in the game when they needed it. No matter who is quarterbacking for New Orleans, I expect them to put up points and at some point in time the Saints have to win a game at home again.

Prediction: New Orleans 30, Dallas 24


Monday, October 5

Detroit (0-3) at Seattle (1-2), Seattle favored by 9

The NFL schedule makers should have known better than to give the Lions multiple prime time slots. I guess they felt good about Detroit sustaining their success off of last year's 11-5 season, but after Monday night the Lions will be one loss away from matching their loss total of last season. The decline of their offense that we have been watching the past few years has gotten worse. Matthew Stafford seems to have plateaued and Calvin Johnson hasn't looked like Megatron in a while, as injuries have seemed to have slowed him. Seattle essentially had a bye last week playing the hapless Bears. This week's game won't be as easy but the Lions have showed nothing this year to convince me they have a prayer of going out to Seattle and earning a victory. Russell Wilson and Jimmy Graham appeared to be finally getting on the same page last week, which is especially important since Marshawn Lynch is hurting right now and may not play Monday night.

Prediction: Seattle 27, Detroit 13

Last Week Straight Up: 13-3
Overall Straight Up: 31-17

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-6
Overall Against the Spread: 27-20-1

Cram Session - Week 5

Baltimore (0-3) at Pittsburgh (2-1), Baltimore favored by 2 1/2

Desperate times for the Ravens tonight, as they look for their first victory of the season. They already trail the Bengals by three games in the AFC North and have a loss to them. This game would likely be a loss too, had Ben Roethlisberger not gotten injured last Sunday in the Steelers win at St. Louis. Mike Vick makes his season debut as the starter tonight. However, those expecting to see Vick running past defenders and making crazy plays haven't been paying attention the last few seasons. Vick is a shell of his former self. He is adequate, but that is about it. He will be helped out by the various offensive stars that surround him on the Steelers, including Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Bryant. The Ravens will have to pay extra attention to Bryant, especially after they were gashed by A.J. Green last week. The Ravens have been competitive in every game but oddly they aren't making the necessary plays late in games. You expect to see that from a team not used to winning, rather than a perennial contender such as the Ravens. The Ravens are too good to keep losing and have too good of a coach in John Harbaugh to be a sad sack team. With the Steelers missing their most important player, they are ripe for the picking.

Prediction: Baltimore 18, Pittsburgh 16

Games That Matter to Me

Nebraska (2-2, 0-0) at Illinois (3-1, 0-0)

The Huskers seemed to be cruising to victory against Southern Mississippi last week, and then the defense collapsed and almost gagged the game away. The defense has been atrocious all season and it is obvious that Bo Pelini left the cupboard pretty bare on that side of the ball. The passing defense has been really susceptible and can't stop anyone and is dead last in the NCAA. The offense has performed well, especially QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. but once again the rushing attack was uneven and inconsistent in last week's win. The Huskers now have to try to get their first road victory of the season as they open their Big Ten schedule against Illinois. The Illini have a winning record but its deceptive. Their three wins have come against crap teams, they were blasted by North Carolina, and barely beat Middle Tennessee State at home last week. QB Wes Lunt has struggled in recent weeks and is probably being asked to throw the ball too much as evidenced by his less than 60% completion percentage in three of four games this season. However, with how bad the Huskers pass defense has been, he is probably due for his best game of the season on Saturday. The Nebraska run defense has been better, currently 11th in the nation, but that is partially because teams don't feel the need to run on them. Illinois gives up 4 yards a carry, so I think Terrell Newby should have a stronger game if the Huskers commit to the run. Armstrong should have another good performance, he just needs to avoid interceptions, which have sort of plagued him throughout the year. He has very good receivers in Jordan Westerkamp, Brandon Reilly, and Alonzo Moore, and they are all capable of making big plays. I expect another uneven performance by Nebraska but they are a more talented team than Illinois and it would be a really dreadful sign if they can't beat them.

Prediction: Nebraska 35, Illinois 24


Top 10

#1 Ohio State (4-0, 0-0) at Indiana (4-0, 0-0)

Urban Meyer finally has settled on Cardale Jones as his starting quarterback. I ended up being wrong twice, as I kept thinking J.T. Barrett would win out because of his larger body of work, but Urbs is all about Cardale. The Buckeyes have struggled with inferior opponents and if their minds aren't right the Hoosiers could be harder to put away than most would expect. The Hoosiers have some talented players at the skill positions including QB Nate Sudfeld as well as RB Jordan Howard and I think they will be able to make some plays offensively against the stout Buckeyes defense. I think the Hoosiers can keep it close for the first half, but then Ezekiel Elliott is going to ram it down the throats of their defense and the Buckeyes will cruise to victory.

Prediction: Ohio State 41, Indiana 24

Purdue (1-3, 0-0) at #2 Michigan State (4-0, 0-0)

You could forgive the Spartans if they are looking past their next two games and starting to think about traveling to Ann Arbor to take on the Wolverines in two weeks. Until then, QB Connor Cook should be able to pad his stats and Heisman resume and the Spartans will be looking to avoid losing any key players to major injuries. The Boilermakers are terrible and I would be surprised if this game isn't over after the first quarter.

Prediction: Michigan State 45, Purdue 13

#3 Mississippi (4-0, 2-0) at #25 Florida (4-0, 2-0)

For the first time in years it feels like there is hope in Gainesville. The Gators are coming off a stirring victory at home against Tennessee, when they overcame a late 4th quarter deficit to pull off the shocking win. Ole Miss seemed to have a bit of a hangover after their win at Alabama and struggled to put Vanderbilt away last week. Now the Rebels face another tough SEC road test but one thing I can say for sure is they won't be overwhelmed by the atmosphere. QB Chad Kelly struggled last week and while he could get away with that versus the Commodores he will need to be much sharper against Florida. He will have his challenges versus Florida as during the Gators struggles the past few years, it hasn't been defense that has been an issue. One of the reasons Florida is 4-0 this year is that the offense is playing much better, led by QB Will Grier. Grier doesn't have eye popping stats but he plays the position smartly and doesn't put the Gators defense in bad spots with stupid turnovers. However, QB Treon Harris is returning from suspension and coach Jim McElwain intimated that he could start a quarterback rotation. In my opinion that is the worst thing he could do, as it will stifle the growth and momentum Grier has been building. RB Kelvin Taylor is famous for two reason, one he is Fred Taylor's son and second he was dressed down on national television by coach McElwain. He has overcome the public humiliation from McElwain though to earn back his starting job and he was instrumental in the win against the Volunteers. I think McElwain has the Gators on the right trajectory but I don't think they are at a point quite yet where they can knock off a Top 5 time. They will give the Rebels a hell of a game, but I expect the Rebels offense to make enough plays and scrape by with the win.

Prediction: Mississippi 27, Florida 23

Texas (1-3, 0-1) at #4 TCU (4-0, 1-0)

Texas has found some excruciating ways to gag away games the last two weeks to California and Oklahoma State. The good news for them this week is that I don't expect them to be anywhere close to winning late in the game at TCU. The Horned Frogs had a miracle ending of their own, except unlike Texas, they had the ball bounce their way. Trailing at Texas Tech late, TCU was able to catch a deflection in the end zone with just 21 seconds remaining to seal the victory. I don't think the Horned Frogs are a real playoff contender because their defense is atrocious but they will win a lot more games this year because of what QB Trevone Boykin brings to the table. It will be interesting to see how long Longhorn fans remain patient with Charlie Strong. After they lose this game on Saturday they will be 1-4 and looking at the rest of their schedule, I would be shocked if they get to 6 wins and a bowl game.

Prediction: TCU 52, Texas 31

Texas Tech (3-1, 0-1) at #5 Baylor (3-0, 0-0)

For the first time all year we will finally get to see Baylor against some decent competition. In three games versus patsies the Bears have averaged an NCAA best 64 points per game and QB Seth Russell has already thrown 15 touchdowns. The Red Raiders will be a step up in competition but only offensively. The Red Raiders and really the Big 12 in general do not believe in defense and I expect this game to follow a similar script to Texas Tech/TCU. The big difference though is that the Red Raiders are on the road for this win, so despite a valiant effort, I think they will have been disposed of long before any late game heartbreak can happen.

Prediction: Baylor 55, Texas Tech 41

#6 Notre Dame (4-0) at #12 Clemson (3-0)

It will be a hell of an atmosphere in Death Valley Saturday night when these teams meet and one tries to push themselves clearly into the Playoff discussion. The Irish have battled injuries all season but their record remains unblemished. It could be argued they haven't beaten any good teams as of yet, as that Georgia Tech win has lost some shine after the Yellow Jackets lost to Duke last week. Clemson hasn't beaten anyone good yet either though, and nearly lost to an underwhelming Louisville team on the road a couple weeks ago. The Tigers had off last week so they have had plenty of time to study up on Irish QB DeShone Kizer. In his two starts Kizer has done a good job of playing within himself and trusting his teammates to help him make plays. He hasn't tried to do anything too unnecessary and facing the type of atmosphere he will Saturday night, he needs to keep that mindset. If I am Brian Kelly my game plan is all about feeding C.J. Prosise. Prosise has averaged over 9 yards a carry in his last three games and appears to be unstoppable. If the Irish can establish Prosise early that will help the Irish manage the problems the Tigers crowd will bring on the offense. That will also open up play action and then you can hit Will Fuller deep. Fuller was held under 100 yards receiving for the first time last week but still averaged 14 yards a catch. The Irish defense will need to have their heads on a swivel trying to defense Tigers QB Deshaun Watson. Watson doesn't use his legs to make plays as much as people might think, but the threat is one that defenses need to be aware of. Watson is an accurate passer but he does press at times, so the Irish defense will have a chance to create some turnovers. Tigers RB Wayne Gallman has gotten better each game this season and the Irish rush defense was not very good against UMASS last weekend. This is a really tough game to predict, as I feel like we won't really know too much about each team until after they play each other. I do think they are pretty evenly matched squads, so I have to lean to the homefield advantage Clemson will enjoy. It is crucial for Notre Dame that they don't fall behind early or things will get very ugly. I think this game will mirror the Irish's game at Florida State last year, right down to the heartbreaking ending.

Prediction: Clemson 31, Notre Dame 28

Arizona State (2-2, 0-1) at #7 UCLA (4-0, 1-0)

The Sun Devils are on the verge of having their season go off the rails after being blasted at home by USC last week. They face an even better team this week in UCLA. I picked the Bruins to fall on the road at Arizona last week and boy was I wrong. After some shaky efforts, freshman QB Josh Rosen was back to playing up to the hype that preceded him. With Oregon being completely terrible this year, it appears that the Bruins are fighting the Utes to be the class of the Pac-12 this season. UCLA's run defense was not very good last week and that is something the Sun Devils will look to expose in this game. I don't expect UCLA to look as good as they did last week or the Sun Devils to look as bad as they did, leading to a game a little closer than most would expect.

Prediction: UCLA 38, Arizona State 28

#13 Alabama (3-1, 0-1) at #8 Georgia (4-0, 2-0)

A big deal is being made out of the fact that Georgia are favorites over mighty Bama. I am not really sure why, it seems reasonable to me. The game is in Athens and Alabama doesn't appear to be nearly as mighty as we have seen them be in recent years. We don't know a ton about Georgia either. They haven't played anyone that I would call good. What we do know is that the Bama defense will have their hands full with Bulldogs RB Nick Chubb. QB Greyson Lambert has also been very good, throwing zero interceptions through four games and having an absurd completion percentage in his last two games. He has completed 33 of 35 passes, throwing just one incompletion in each game. You have to figure that hot streak won't continue, but the Bama defense can be carved up by evidence of what Ole Miss did to them. I don't expect Lambert to be the focal point though, Georgia will try to pound the rock with Chubb, much like Alabama will try to pound things with RB Derrick Henry, who already has 8 rushing touchdowns this season. QB Jake Coker has struggled at times this season and I think that is mostly because Alabama is lacking a big play option at the receiver position. This is a huge game for Georgia coach Mark Richt and the Georgia program as a whole. They have always been on the precipice of being a true championship contender but never able to take that next step. If they can't beat Alabama in what is sort of a down year for the Tide, then maybe a championship run will never happen as long as Richt is coach. I believe in trends and the recent trends tell me that Bama will be up to the challenge on the road, and the Dogs can't be trusted in a big spot.

Prediction: Alabama 31, Georgia 24

Eastern Michigan (1-3) at #9 LSU (3-0)

The only reason to pay attention to this game is to find out if Leonard Fournette can run for over 200 yards for a third straight week. If he does not, the only reason would likely be that Les Miles pulled him from the game early to avoid injury since it had gotten out of hand.

Prediction: LSU 49, Eastern Michigan 14

Last Week: 8-2
Overall: 36-6

The Hail Mary - Week 3

Sunday, September 27

Philadelphia (0-2) vs. New York Jets (2-0), New York Jets favored by 2 1/2

After this past off-season when Chip Kelly put all his cards on the table and completely remade the Eagles in his vision, it was clear things would go one of two ways. He would either succeed and be labeled a genius, or he would fail and be labeled a moron and chastised for his hubris. Through two games, his tweaks to the Eagles roster, especially their offense, have been a complete and utter disaster. DeMarco Murray has 11 rushing yards on 21 carries. Shockingly, Sam Bradford hasn't torn his ACL yet but he still sucks. The Jets are a surprising 2-0 after dominating the Colts in Indianapolis on Monday Night Football. Their defense has been awesome through the first two games, especially Darrelle Revis. Revis was all over the place on Monday night, getting an interception and recovering a fumble at the goal line. Ryan Fitzpatrick has played within the offense and not tried to do much and the Jets resemble the Jets teams from Rex Ryan's first two years at the helm. They are winning with defense and doing just enough offensively. I think at some point the Eagles offense will click and start to produce but until I actually see it, I don't feel comfortable predicting it will happen. So because of that, I expect another long day at the office for the Eagles on Sunday.

Prediction: New York Jets 24, Philadelphia 13

San Diego (1-1) at Minnesota (1-1), Minnesota favored by 2 1/2




The resurrection of Adrian Peterson started last Sunday against Detroit. Peterson wasn't perfect, and struggled with fumbles, but he ran like a man possessed and showed why the Vikings refused to ever seriously enter into any trade talks about him. Peterson is back in the comfortable confines of home this Sunday, playing a Chargers run defense that has struggled badly through the first two games. Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings passing game still appears to be a work in progress, so it becomes even more important that Peterson continue to run the ball well. The Vikings pass defense will be tested by Philip Rivers, who is completing an absurd 81% of his passes through the first two games. If he can keep his play up to close to that level and Melvin Gordon continues to become more comfortable each week, the Chargers should have a pretty potent offense. They will need that because so far their defense has been subpar. I think these teams are evenly matched so I expect a close game throughout, but for Peterson to ultimately be the difference maker.

Prediction: Minnesota 28, San Diego 23

Atlanta (2-0) at Dallas (2-0), Atlanta favored by 1 1/2

Are the Cowboys the Notre Dame of the NFL? Two weeks ago they lost Dez Bryant for at least half the season, and then last week they saw Tony Romo get injured about force him out of action for at least two months. That means the Cowboys offense is now the Brandon Weeden show. Despite what Jerry Jones said this week making Weeden sound like the second coming, Dallas should be very worried that their starting quarterback is Weeden and their number one receiver is now Terrance Williams. The running game still has been somewhat stagnant, as Joseph Randle hasn't run anywhere near to the level that DeMarco Murray was running last year. Plus, now Jason Witten is hurting and he is questionable to play. Dallas was lucky last week that they were facing such an inept offensive team in Philadelphia and they won't have that same advantage against the Falcons on Sunday. Atlanta's tour of the NFC East has come up roses so far and they have made plays on offense in crucial moments in both of their wins. Matt Ryan hasn't been spectacular but has been his usual solid self, and has had to carry the load as the Falcons haven't been able to establish a run game yet this season. With how banged up Dallas is on offense I would be shocked to see them win this game.

Prediction: Atlanta 27, Dallas 15

Indianapolis (0-2) at Tennessee (1-1), Indianapolis favored by 3

Chaos and panic abound in Indianapolis as the Colts are off to their second straight 0-2 start. Last season, they rebounded by beating up on their pathetic division and eventually finished 11-5 and made the AFC Championship. The Colts free agent acquisitions of Frank Gore and Andre Johnson have been busts so far. Gore had an awful fumble in the Monday Night loss as he was headed for a touchdown and then fumbled the ball without even being touched. Andrew Luck has been awful as well, throwing way too many interceptions and being careless. However, a turnaround could be in order as the Colts next three games are all division games. The Titans came back down to Earth last week at Cleveland after their impressive opener at Tampa. Marcus Mariota still has yet to throw an interception this season but he did fumble way too much in the loss and will have to become more careful with the football. The Colts were my pick to make the Super Bowl out of the AFC, but their playoff hopes are probably cooked if they can't even win at Tennessee. I may have underestimated the tenuous situation developing with Chuck Pagano currently being a lameduck coach.

Prediction: Indianapolis 26, Tennessee 20

Oakland (1-1) at Cleveland (1-1), Cleveland favored by 3 1/2

Josh McCown makes his return for the starter for the Browns, sending Johnny Football back to the bench. The Raiders are coming off an impressive win at home against Baltimore, where Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree all shined. It will be interesting to see if the Raiders can bring that same level of performance on the road to Cleveland. The Browns secondary, led by Joe Haden, will be up for the challenge presented by the Raiders passing game. McCown will have his opportunities against a porous Raiders secondary and it will be interesting to see if he can develop the same rapport with Travis Benjamin that Johnny Manziel had.

Prediction: Cleveland 19, Oakland 16

Cincinnati (2-0) at Baltimore (0-2), Baltimore favored by 2 1/2

Just a terrible loss from the Ravens at Oakland last week. The Bengals had completely destroyed Oakland the week before. Sure they were helped by knocking Derek Carr out of the game, but even before that had happened they were in control. The Baltimore secondary had no answers for the Raiders passing attack, and their offense and defense can't seem to get on the same page. Now they face basically a must win game at home against the undefeated Bengals. Andy Dalton has been quietly really good so far this season and has yet to throw an interception. A situation could be brewing in the Bengals backfield. Jeremy Hill fumbled it early against San Diego and then saw Giovanni Bernard take most of the carries and take advantage of his opportunity. Justin Forsett has just 111 yards rushing in two games, and the Ravens haven't done a very good job of establishing the run game. The Ravens are a tough team to beat in Baltimore, but the Bengals did it last year and I think they are playing so much better than Baltimore right now, that they will do it again.

Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Baltimore 28

Jacksonville (1-1) at New England (2-0), New England favored by 13 1/2

Well, Bloof Borkles showed me. He was an integral part of Jacksonville's upset of Miami and showed that perhaps the Jaguars will have a pulse this season. He will really have a chance to prove himself this week as the Jaguars travel to New England to take on the defending champs. The Patriots went about their business last week, and dispatched the loudmouth Bills. Any other team you might worry about them overlooking a clearly inferior opponent, but with the Patriots that isn't even a possibility. Interestingly, in last week's game Bill Belichick opted to hardly use LaGarrette Blount at running back, giving most of the carries to Dion Lewis. Lewis is proving to be a weapon both running and catching the ball, and seems to be becoming the new Shane Vereen for New England. I think Jacksonville can keep this game somewhat respectable but they never really will have New England sweating.

Prediction: New England 35, Jacksonville 21

New Orleans (0-2) at Carolina (2-0), Carolina favored by 3

Things are ugly in New Orleans. They inexplicably lost their sixth straight game at home, this time to Jamies Winston and the putrid Bucs. Now Drew Brees is hurting and poor Luke McCown who is in a commercial for something about being a backup, could become the starter if Brees can't get healthy. The question I have is who is Luke McCown's agent?  He must be really good to get a backup quarterback a national commercial. The Panthers are 2-0 in usual boring Panthers fashion. Nothing really flashy or newsworthy, just going out and beating the AFC South. Whether Brees plays or not, I like Carolina in this game, as I expect their defense to frustrate the Saints offense and Cam Newton will make enough plays to keep the Panthers ahead and on to victory.

Prediction: Carolina 24, New Orleans 17

Tampa Bay (1-1) at Houston (0-2), Houston favored by 7

The Texans have been one of the worst teams of the season thus far. They created a quarterback controversy before the first game was even over, they have no running game to speak of, and their defense has been mostly average. Arian Foster is working hard to get back and there is a chance he plays on Sunday, which couldn't come any sooner for the Texans. Jamies Winston earned his first win as an NFL starter, but its hard to tell if Tampa is improving or they were just the beneficiaries of playing a woeful Saints team. Ryan Mallett needs to find more ways to get the ball to DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans aren't going to be successful if old ass Nate Washington is leading the team in yards receiving.

Prediction: Houston 22, Tampa Bay 16

Pittsburgh (1-1) at St. Louis (1-1), Pittsburgh favored by 1

The Steelers looked like Super Bowl contenders last week as they completely obliterated the San Francisco 49ers. They also decided to shake things up a bit and start going for two point conversions after their touchdowns. You may have noticed that extra points are no longer gimmes and are now 33-yard kicks, which can actually be missed. The 49ers couldn't stop the Steelers and based on comments by Ben Roethlibserger the Steelers might continue to employ the two point conversion strategy throughout the season. The Steelers have La'Veon Bell returning from suspension for them as well, but their offense hummed along pretty well without him. The Rams on the other hand, had a terrible Sunday last week. After knocking off the Seahawks it seemed the Rams might be ready to take the next step from mediocre to good. But instead, they lost by two touchdowns to the Redskins and reminded everyone that mediocre coaches breed mediocre teams. Now even with that being said, I like the Rams to upset Pittsburgh on Sunday. Even though the stands are usually half full and in this case, I expect half the crowd to be Steelers fans, the Rams play much better at home, especially defensively. I think it is going to be a long day at the office for Roethlisberger and he will be running for his life. Roethlisberger is one of the best at throwing on the run and evading the rush but if he is doing it all game, he will eventually wear down. The Rams offense should also be buoyed by the debut of Todd Gurley.

Prediction: St. Louis 33, Pittsburgh 30

San Francisco (1-1) at Arizona (2-0), Arizona favored by 6 1/2

After a promising Week 1 victory, the team that 49ers fans feared showed up in an embarrassing Week 2 loss at Pittsburgh. The defense, specifically the secondary was dreadful, leaving receivers open all over the field. The offense only moved the ball when the game was completely out of reach and the Steelers started relaxing on defense. Things will be no easier on Sunday when the 49ers travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. Arizona looks like one of the best teams in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season. All three phases of the game, offense, defense and special teams are clicking for the Cardinals right now. Hell, Larry Fitzgerald returned from the dead and had 3 touchdown catches last week. Carson Palmer is once again an elite quarterback, despite being 35 years old and for years seeming like his best days were well behind him. Arizona is a tough stadium to play in and I expect the 49ers to start the game off flustered by the atmosphere. I think the Cardinals will do what they want on offense and Colin Kaepernick won't start getting the chains moving on offense until things are out of reach. Beacuse I expect the Cardinals to pull ahead quickly, that will also limit Carlos Hyde's touches, the one true weapon the offense seems to have right now. Things don't get any easier next week when Green Bay comes to San Francisco.

Prediction: Arizona 35, San Francisco 20

Buffalo (1-1) at Miami (1-1), Miami favored by 3

Both the Bills and Dolphins are coming off disappointing losses and will need a victory in this game to avoid falling two games back of the Patriots in the division. The Bills and especially their defense were knocked back down to Earth after Tom Brady and the Patriots had their way with them. The Dolphins are still waiting for Ndamukong Suh to have an impact and negative stories about Suh freelancing on defense have already started leaking out. Ryan Tannehill has played well for Miami but Lamar Miller has not and he is now questionable for this game. Tannehill and the Dolphins offense can't just be pass happy, they need Miller to start producing. LeSean McCoy has gotten off to a decent start but is looking for his first rushing touchdown of the season. I think as long as Joe Philbin remains the Dolphins coach, Miami won't take that next step to the playoffs. That means losing games like this at home that they need to and should win.

Prediction: Buffalo 27, Miami 24

Chicago (0-2) at Seattle (0-2), Seattle favored by 14 1/2

After back to back road losses Seattle finally can return to the comforts of home. Even better they get to play the Bears, who might be the worst team in football. The Bears are likely without Jay Cutler for this game, meaning Jimmy Clausen will be making the start. Imagining Clausen trying to lead the Bears to victory in Seattle makes me laugh. If the Seahawks can't blow the doors off Chicago this week, something might really be wrong with the two time defending NFC champions. Their defense also will be getting back Kam Chancellor, who had seen enough and is returning to save the day!

Prediction: Seattle 38, Chicago 17

Denver (2-0) at Detroit (0-2), No Line

Much like the Seahawks, the Lions are more than happy to be returning home after opening the season with 2 road losses. They face a tough opponent in the Broncos, who showed great resiliency in their win at Kansas City last Thursday. In the first half of that game Peyton Manning and the entire team looked like 6-10 team I predicted they would be. Then in the second half Manning came alive and the defense created some turnovers and the Broncos were all of the sudden 2-0. They still haven't gotten their running game going, although in my opinion Ronnie Hillman has shown more than C.J. Anderson and should start receiving more carries. The Lions don't have much of a running game either, so expect to see lots of passes in this one. These two offenses used to be very high octane, and I think this game three years ago would have me a lot more excited for it than it would now. However, Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas are two of the top receivers in football and each should make some big plays in this game. I like Denver to once again find a way to pull out a tough victory on the road.

Prediction: Denver 24, Detroit 21


Monday, September 28

Kansas City (1-1) at Green Bay (2-0), Green Bay favored by 6 1/2

Kansas City will have had 11 days to stew over their crushing home loss to the Broncos. The player stewing the most has to be Jamaal Charles. It was his crucial fumble late that cost the Chiefs. He also had a fumble earlier in the game that Denver converted into points, overshadowing what was a really strong performance for the most part from him. Alex Smith did not have a strong performance against Denver and was careless with the ball, something that is uncharacteristic of him. The Packers RB Eddie Lacy is questionable, but James Starks is experienced and stepped in against the Seahawks and nearly ran for 100 yards. The Packers offense continues to hum along, even as players go down. As long as they have Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking, it doesn't seem to matter who else is hurt. The Packers are seemingly unbeatable at Lambeau, and I expect it to be a long night for the Chiefs. Also, yes, Smith has still not thrown a touchdown to a wide receiver this year.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Kansas City 21

Last Week Straight Up: 7-9
Overall Straight Up: 18-14

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-9
Overall Against the Spread: 17-14-1

Cram Session - Week 4

Washington (1-1) at New York Giants (0-2), New York Giants favored by 4

The Redskins surprised their fans, the national media and maybe even themselves with a convincing 24-10 win against St. Louis. Even when Washington got up early I was waiting for the other shoe to drop and the Rams to storm back but it never happened. After two games, the Redskins have the best defense in football. Now the Redskins go on the road for the first time this season, and have to face a Giants team that is desperate for a victory. For the second straight game, the Giants managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, blowing a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. The Redskins have seemed to develop a running back by committee with last week's emergence of rookie Matt Jones. The Giants also have a running back by committee but that is more because no one has stepped up and taken charge of being the lead sled dog. The difference in this game will likely be how the Redskins defense does against Odell Beckham Jr. When Beckham played the Redskins last season he torched them for three touchdowns. In the past the Redskins have also been torched by Giants TE Larry Donnell. Redskins QB Kirk Cousins also has struggled against the Giants in the past, throwing multiple picks. Past performance can give you an idea into the future but tonight is a whole new game. I believe the Giants, being the more desperate team, will finally persevere at the end of a game and not blow it.

Prediction: New York Giants 23, Washington 20


Games That Matter to Me

Southern Mississippi (2-1) at Nebraska (1-2)

Nebraska finishes up their non-conference scheduled against Southern Mississippi, desperate for a win so they can get back to .500 before starting conference play. The Huskers were dominated for three quarters at Miami last week, before Tommy Armstrong led a stirring comeback, bring Nebraska all way back from a 33-10 deficit. However, on the first play in overtime, Armstrong made a terrible throw that was picked off and then some buffoon on Nebraska made things worse by getting a 15-yard personal foul penalty. Miami barely had to move the ball to kick a field goal and secure the win. The resolve of the Huskers was nice to see, but it was another game where the defense couldn't stop anyone. Also, Armstrong played a big role in getting Nebraska in that hole with two previous interceptions before the one in overtime. RB Terrell Newby didn't get to touch the ball much with the Huskers losing, but did average almost six yards a carry and has cemented himself as the starting running back. Nebraska was victimized both by the the rush and the pass and it is clear the defense has a long way to go to be in a position of helping this team.

Southern Mississippi has showcased their offense the last two weeks, putting up 52 and 56 points. However, those huge outings came against Austin Peay and Texas State so they need to be taken with a grain of salt. The Golden Eagles are just happy to be above .500 right now after how terribly far their program has fallen the past two seasons. QB Nick Mullens likes to air it out, but when facing a more formidable team like Mississippi State, he was turnover prone, throwing two interceptions. RB Jalen Richard ran for 230 yards and 4 touchdowns against Texas State, but again like Mullens, when he played a more talented team, he averaged less than 4 yards per carry. Based on stats, it would seem that the offensive outburst we have seen from Southern Miss will revert back to the norm against Nebraska.

I expect the Huskers offense to have a big day against a leaky Golden Eagles defense, and the defense to struggle at times but also make some turnovers and help the Huskers cruise to a victory.

Prediction: Nebraska 42, Southern Mississippi 24


Top 10

Western Michigan (1-2) at #1 Ohio State (3-0)

The Buckeyes had more trouble than anyone could have ever guessed when they faced Northern Illinois last week. The game came down to the Huskies final series before the Buckeyes were finally able to put them away 30-27. Both Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett struggled and Urban Meyer remains unable to settle on a starter. This week, another MAC team comes to the Shoe, this time Western Michigan. The Broncos opened their season hosting Michigan State and only lost by 13, so they should have Ohio State's attention. I can't see Ohio State playing like crap for a second straight week against a MAC team, but they haven't shown anything to convince me it will be a complete obliteration. I expect Barrett to get most of the reps in this game and finally start to entrench himself as the starter.

Prediction: Ohio State 35, Western Michigan 14

Central Michigan (1-2) at #2 Michigan State (3-0)

The Spartans are up to number two in the country, whetting the appetite of fans hoping that both they and the Buckeyes can remain undefeated for their meeting in Columbus in late November. After a tough first game, Spartans QB Connor Cook has played much better and had a dazzling 4 touchdown performance against Air Force last week. The Chippewas have been competitive in their losses this year, and I expect them to give Michigan State fits at times during this game. Sparty should survive though and be perfect heading into the Big Ten schedule.

Prediction: Michigan State 28, Central Michigan 13

#3 TCU (3-0, 0-0) at Texas Tech (3-0, 0-0)

The injury bug has hit the Horned Frogs hard on defense and it has been showing. They gave up 37 points to SMU last week and now face a difficult road test in Lubbock. TCU's wins have not been overly impressive this year, while the Red Raiders did go to Arkansas and knock off the Razorbacks. Texas Tech has the skill players on offense that can give a weakened defense like TCU's fits, and it starts with sophomore QB Patrick Mahomes. Mahonmes has been very accurate so far this year, and last game he completed 26 of 30. However, 2 of those incompletions were interceptions, and when you're trying to upset the #3 team in the country those kind of mistakes can't happen. Defensively, the Red Raiders aren't good so this game may just have to turn into a shootout. I don't expect Texas Tech to slow down Trevone Boykin or really any of the Horned Frogs offense. I think this game will have one of those finishes where it simply comes down to who has the ball last. Sometimes you have to make bold upset picks and I feel this is the spot for one.

Prediction: Texas Tech 42, TCU 37

Vanderbilt (1-2, 0-1) at #3 Mississippi (3-0, 1-0)

The Rebels did the unthinkable, going to Alabama and not just beating the Crimson Tide but basically dominating them. The Tide made it interesting late but at different points in the game Ole Miss was leading 30-10 and 43-24. They have some tough games remaining but they should be favored in each of them, so you know Rebels fans are getting excited about their team's national championship prospects. It will be interesting to see how Ole Miss fares against Vanderbilt and if they suffer any sort of letdown. I think the answer to that question will be telling as to how they will fare with heightened expectations the rest of the season.

Prediction: Mississippi 51, Vanderbilt 17

Rice (2-1) at #5 Baylor (2-0)

After a week off the Bears are back at it against an inferior opponent, before beginning their Big 12 schedule next week. Rice is able to put up a lot of points and the Bears defense is easily the team's weakness, so this should at least be a fun game to watch if you like seeing lots of points scored. Bears QB Seth Russell needs to clean up his play a bit though, as he has thrown 4 interceptions in just two games, including three two weeks ago in the win against Lamar. He can get away with those types of things now, but once conference season hits, it could cost the Bears game.

Prediction: Baylor 56, Rice 28

Massachusetts (0-2) at #6 Notre Dame (3-0)

Boy, did I over value how good Georgia Tech was based off a couple of cupcake wins. However, after the haphazard performance Notre Dame had at Virginia, especially on defense, I never would have envisioned them completely dominating the Yellow Jackets offensive attack. For this week's game against the Minutemen, I could probably line up at quarterback and Notre Dame would still win. I am happy to see the Irish schedule a true cupcake for a change. All the other big time schools do it, most of them schedule multiple cupcakes, so why not Notre Dame. RB C.J. Prosise and WR Will Fuller are carrying the Irish offense. All QB DeShone Kizer has to do is throw it up and Fuller comes down with it and makes a huge play. The Irish defense has been hit with the same injury bug the offense has been hit with, but they haven't let that serve as an excuse for lessening their performances. They will really need to be on their toes in a week when Notre Dame travels to Clemson.

I've never seen a second of UMASS football in my life and wasn't even aware they were a Division I program before writing this preview. They are leaving the MAC this year after just four seasons and becoming an independent. They were blown out at Colorado in Week 1, and lost a heartbreaker at home to Temple last week. I bet their kids will be overwhelmed playing at Notre Dame Stadium and I expect a long afternoon for them. Anything less than a blowout win by Notre Dame would be a disappointment, and please, please let no one else be seriously injured.

Prediction: Notre Dame 45, Massachusetts 12

Southern (2-1) at #7 Georgia (3-0)

Georgia has to get through this game with Southern this week before the main event when they host Alabama next week. Southern will give the Bulldogs RB Nick Chubb a chance to pad his stats some more and try to keep up with LSU's Leonard Fournette in the Heisman trophy race.

Prediction: Georgia 49, Southern 16

#8 LSU (2-0) at Syracuse (3-0)

LSU is coming off a resounding victory at home against Auburn, which not only catapulted them into national title contention and put their RB Fournette into the forefront of the Heisman race. Fournette gashed Auburn for 228 yards and 3 touchdowns. Fournette is only a sophomore so LSU can enjoy him for at least one more season after this one. Some prognosticators picked Syracuse to win as few as 1 game this year, but so far they have navigated their schedule with perfection. However, LSU will be a huge step up from Rhode Island, Wake Forest and Central Michigan. The Carrier Dome might have been an intimidating atmosphere for opponents back in the 90s, but LSU won't be phased by it at all.

Prediction: LSU 41, Syracuse 20

#9 UCLA (3-0, 0-0) at #16 Arizona (3-0, 0-0)

The game of the week happens in primetime in Tucson as the Bruins and Wildcats open up their Pac-12 schedule. The difference in this game could down to preparation and by that I mean how each team scheduled their non-conference. Arizona basically has played three cupcakes, while UCLA challenged themselves by hosting BYU and barely escaping. To a lesser extent you could even throw Virginia in there as a tougher scheduled opponent since they are part of the ACC. The quarterbacks will be on display for this game. The Bruins have heralded freshman Josh Rosen but Rosen was pretty awful in the win over BYU, throwing 3 interceptions. To his credit, he did compose himself late in the game and help lead the winning drive. Maybe it has to do with the soft schedule, but Wildcats QB Anu Solomon has played much better than Rosen. Through three games Solomon has 10 touchdowns and no interceptions, and completed 70% of his passes in the last two games. Both teams have talented defenses and the Wildcats are hoping their All-American LB Scooby Wright can return for this game. While he may not be able to have an instant impact on the field when he plays, it would be a great morale booster for the Wildcat team. The Bruins got bad news about a star lineback of their own, as it was announced Myles Jack is out for the season after hurting his knee in practice. I have gone back and forth on my pick for this game, but ultimately, I think Rosen's inexperience will cause him to struggle in a tough atmosphere, and Solomon's steady play will lead Arizona to the mini upset.

Prediction: Arizona 30, UCLA 28

Last Week: 7-3
Overall: 28-4

The Hail Mary - Week 2

Sunday, September 20

San Francisco (1-0) at Pittsburgh (0-1), Pittsburgh favored by 5 1/2

I am not really pleased with the NFL schedule makers. How is it fair to make the Niners go play the Steelers on six days rest after having to fly cross country, while the Steelers would have had 10 days of rest for this game? That point aside, I was very pleased with how the 49ers looked last Monday night. There certainly was some sloppiness and the passing game could still use some work, but the defense played way better than I or anyone else expected. Also, we saw the emergence of Carlos Hyde. I expected Hyde to do well this season and even bought his jersey, but never would have guessed he would announce his presence so convincingly last Monday night. Hopefully, he can do more of that Sunday against the Steelers, who struggled at times stopping the Patriots no name running backs. The Steelers also had a tough time covering Rob Gronkowski. I mean, that isn't breaking news, everyone struggles to cover Gronk, but maybe there are some plays to be made for Vernon Davis, who actually showed a pulse against Minnesota. I hope to see the same poise out of Colin Kaepernick playing on the road, that we saw from him at home. For the Steelers, they hope that DeAngelo Williams picks up where he left off last week. Williams rushed for 127 yards and looked like his old self from 3 or 4 seasons ago. Le'Veon Bell returns next week, so the Steelers just need one more week of production out of Williams. The 49ers know that Antonio Brown will get his 5 or 6 catches, they just have to try to contain him and not let him break for big gains. I don't expect the 49ers to win this game but I do expect them to make it competitive and give a good accounting of themselves, further proving that they are still able to compete with the best this season.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, San Francisco 17

Detroit (0-1) at Minnesota (0-1), Minnesota favored by 3

It was an ugly start to the season for everyone's sleeper pick, the Vikings. The offense could get nothing going and the defense was run all over by Carlos Hyde. People aren't jumping off the bandwagon yet, but it will have some space open up if Minnesota loses at home to Detroit on Sunday. The Lions roared out of the gates at San Diego, including rookie Ameer Abdullah rushing for a touchdown in his first regular season carry. But then the defense fell apart and the offense started looking like the uneven unit we saw in 2014. The Lions brought on Haloti Ngata to be the new Suh but he's an older, less athletic model. The goal for the Vikings and Norv Turner specifically for this game should be to feed Adrian Peterson early and often. He seemed hesitant to go to Peterson for some reason, when Peterson should be fresher than ever after a year off. This will also be Peterson's first home game since the 2013 season, so I expect him to get a strong reaction.

Prediction: Minnesota 26, Detroit 24

St. Louis (1-0) at Washington (0-1), St. Louis favored by 3 1/2

During the off-season the Rams were declaring that with their ferocious pass rush, and the addition of Nick Foles and drafting Todd Gurley this was finally the year they would make the leap. They got off on the right foot by beating the defending NFC Champion Seahawks last week. Now to truly make the leap, you can't be a team that springs an upset from time to time because you are so pumped for the game. You have to be able to beat the teams you are supposed to beat, which is what St. Louis faces this weekend in Washington. It's funny because in previous years when these teams played it was always a game the Redskins should win and they almost never did. Kirk Cousins was slightly above mediocre in his first start of the season, certainly not this player that some Redskins fans were saying would bring them to 8 or 9 wins and was such a drastic improvement from RGIII. He was good for 2 interceptions, which it seems, he's good for just about every game. The Redskins line did a good job against the Dolphins rush, but I don't think they will have the answers for a Rams pass rush that sacked Russell Wilson six times last week. I expect to see Cousins flat on his back a lot or rushing his passes, which you guessed it, will lead to interceptions. The Skins secondary is dealing with injuries and suspensions, and Tavon Austin is the type of player that has given the Redskins fits over the years, so I expect at least one big play out of him.

Prediction: St. Louis 26, Washington 17

Houston (0-1) at Carolina (1-0), Carolina favored by 3

Houston came out completely flat for their home opener against the Chiefs and have already created a quarterback controversy one game into the season. Coach Bill O'Brien pulled Brian Hoyer in the second half in favor or Ryan Mallett. Once Mallett came into the game the Texans offense did seem to respond to him. Now O'Brien is saying this week's quarterback is a secret, despite the age old rule that secrets don't make friends. I figured he was going to go with Mallett and that has already started leaking out to the press. The Panthers won a boring game against Jacksonville, but this game against the Texans should be interesting as Cam tries to elude J.J. Watt and Jadaveon Clowney. It was a very poor performance for the Houston defense in Week 1. The Panthers don't have a player as dynamic as Jamaal Charles, but I still think they will put up enough points to send the Texans to another loss.

Prediction: Carolina 24, Houston 17

Tampa Bay (0-1) at New Orleans (0-1), New Orleans favored by 9 1/2

The Saints are looking to break a 5 game losing streak at home against the putrid Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs were walloped by Tennessee at home as Jameis Winston looked every bit the rookie he is. The Saints showed the same problems in Week 1 that we saw from them last season. Too many turnovers by Drew Brees and a defense that can't consistently stop anyone. Playing Tampa at home should at least provide a one week reprieve from what ails the Saints, if not, their problems are even worse than imagined.

Prediction: New Orleans 38, Tampa Bay 24

Arizona (1-0) at Chicago (0-1), Arizona favored by 1 1/2

Carson Palmer is back from injury and continued his winning ways as the Cardinals quarterback. One thing he had started doing last season that was different for the Cardinals organization, was taking them on the road and winning in tough places. We will find out Sunday if he still has that magic, as the Cardinals travel to Chicago. The Bears kept things interesting with Green Bay and Matt Forte had a hell of a game, but like it was the story most of 2014, it just wasn't enough and Jay Cutler couldn't make the big plays needed down the stretch. I expect Smokin Jay to throw a couple picks against the Cardinals tough secondary, and I think Palmer and the Cardinals offense, even with a depleted running back corps, will be able to pass the ball pretty much at will, leading to a relatively stress free win.

Prediction: Arizona 30, Chicago 20

New England (1-0) at Buffalo (1-0), New England favored by 1

Rex Ryan renews his battles with New England but this time as a Buffalo Bills coach. I commented last week how I didn't understand why Bills fans were so hyped for this year's team, and then they went out and dominated my AFC champion pick, the Colts. LeSean McCoy mad some plays, as did Tyrod Taylor, but annoyingly to me for fantasy football reasons, Sammy Watkins was held without catch. I would think the Bills will make a conscious effort in this game of getting Sammy the ball. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski picked up where they left off last season, connecting for 3 touchdowns and looking unstoppable in the redzone. The Patriots also will have LaGarrette Blount back in the lineup for this game after he served his 1 game suspension. The Bills have a far better defense than Pittsburgh and I am sure Ryan will be coming up with some ways to not let Gronk beat them. The Bills have had some success at home against the Patriots in recent years, but not this year. I think mental toughness will be the deciding factor late in this game, as the team that knows how to win will beat the team that is still learning.

Prediction: New England 23, Buffalo 19

San Diego (1-0) at Cincinnati (1-0), Cincinnati favored by 3 1/2

The Chargers trailed the Lions 21-3 but then stormed back to victory with Philip Rivers and the passing game looking on point. One player that had a monster game was Keenan Allen. Allen came onto the scene in 2013, surprising everyone. In 2014, he surprised everyone the wrong way by not building upon that season. However, if the start to his 2015 is any indication than he should be in for a big year. Rookie Melvin Gordon showed some flashes running the ball but also fumbled, so it was an uneven debut for him. The Bengals went to Oakland crushed the Raiders and set themselves up nicely for another season where they do well before losing right away in the playoffs. I'll be interested to see how Andy Dalton plays in this game, because if he struggles, I expect the crowd to get on him. Bengals fans were starved for success for almost two decades, now they are starving for a playoff win. These are two evenly matched teams, and I expect a close game that isn't decided until the final few minutes.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, San Diego 21

Tennessee (1-0) at Cleveland (0-1), Line is a pick em

Marcus Mariota had a debut for the ages. He barely completed any passes and had 4 touchdowns. I definitely give him his due, that's a heck of a start to your career, but lets not crown him just yet. He did it against a really bad Buccaneers team. He could be in line for another big game this week as the Titans face the awful Browns. Johnny Football was on the scene last week as Josh McCown suffered a concussion. Manziel did throw a touchdown pass but he was also a turnover machine. He may be at least saying and doing all the right things but his actual quarterbacking talent still leaves a lot to be desired. With the Colts coming to Tennessee next week, Titans fans might be really excited and feeling good about themselves at 2-0.

Prediction: Tennessee 33, Cleveland 20

Atlanta (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1), New York Giants favored by 2 1/2

These teams had opposite late game results in Week 1. The Falcons managed the clock, made the right decisions and beat the Eagles with a late field goal. The Giants squandered their chance for a win at Dallas by making just about every wrong decision you could make with the ball under 2 minutes. You have Eli Manning telling Rashad Jennings not to score even though that put them up 2 touchdowns because he doesn't think Dallas has any timeouts. Then you have the Giants passing the ball on third down, when just running it and kicking a field goal would have killed about 40 seconds. That result could end up being the difference between the Giants winning the division or earning a playoff berth. The home crowd might let them hear their displeasure from that game if the Giants start slowly on Sunday. However, I think the Giants showed some promising signs before the late collapse, especially on defense. The big task for the Giants defense will be finding a way to somehow slow down Julio Jones. For Atlanta, it will be stopping Odell Beckham Jr. who was a non-factor in Dallas. I think Beckham gets back on track this weekend and New York earns their first win.

Prediction: New York Giants 29, Atlanta 24

Miami (1-0) at Jacksonville (0-1), Miami favored by 6

The Dolphins got the win but it was one of those wins where you feel slightly dirty afterwards. Ryan Tannehill didn't look very good and the Dolphins defensive front, which was supposed to be rock solid with Ndamukong Suh, was run all over by Alfred Morris. The glass half full way of looking at it is this is just a work in progress and the Dolphins will improve. They should be 2-0 on Sunday after they beat Bloof Borkles and the pussycats. For the second straight season I was seeing Twitter clowns saying how good Borkles looked and the Jags were up and coming, blah, blah. Then they did nothing on offense and looked like the same sad sacks they have been for a while now. It would be nice if Miami could look a little better against an inferior team this weekend, but in the NFL wins are at a premium, so no matter what the score, just get a win.

Prediction: Miami 24, Jacksonville 13

Baltimore (0-1) at Oakland (0-1), Baltimore favored by 6 1/2

The Ravens had a tough luck loss to Denver, giving it away late when Joe Flacco threw a pick six. They also lost the heart and soul of their defense, Terrell Suggs for the season. The new Jack Del Rio era for the Raiders started a lot like the last 4 or 5 new eras have been for Oakland, dreadfully. They lost quarterback Derek Carr to injury and were lambasted by the Bengals. Carr's status for this game is questionable, and if he plays he gives the Raiders a slight chance versus no chance at all if Matt McGloin is the starter. I think this game will give the Ravens the opportunity to get some momentum on offense, especially Justin Forsett. Flacco needs to start finding out who he can count on receiving wise besides Steve Smith Sr. Playing the Raiders is a great chance for a receiver to step up and make some plays.

Prediction: Baltimore 35, Oakland 20

Dallas (1-0) at Philadelphia (0-1), Philadelphia favored by 5 1/2

The Cowboys snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the Giants, so they got to feel good about themselves, but let me be Critical Chris here for a minute. Some people just assumed the Cowboys run game would march on without DeMarco Murray because of their offensive line. But based on Dallas' play calling, the staff doesn't appear to have the faith in Joseph Randle or Darren McFadden to be their bell cow like Murray. Some of the lack of carries was dictated by Dallas trailing, but even in the first half when the score was closer, Dallas wasn't pounding the ball with the run the same successful way they had last year. Then their offense took another hit with Dez Bryant breaking hit foot and being out at least a month now. Tony Romo was masterful on the game winning drive and is a good enough quarterback to bring others up to his level so I think the Cowboys offense will still find success. For the Eagles, their first game was a tale of two halves. The first half was a complete disaster and had everyone talking about what an idiot Chip Kelly was for turning his team over to Sam Bradford. But in the second half, Bradford got much more comfortable, they started finding ways to use Murray and they looked like a lethal unit. Murray had two touchdowns but hardly any carries so hopefully Kelly rethinks that strategy starting Sunday against Dallas. I expect to see both offenses in peak form and putting up points against shaky defenses.

Prediction: Philadelphia 38, Dallas 34

Seattle (0-1) at Green Bay (1-0), Green Bay favored by 3 1/2

It's a rematch from last season's NFC Championship game. For those that need a refresher, the Packers jumped out to a 16-0 lead and were just five minutes away from sealing the deal before they suffered an incredible choke and lost. The Packers will say all the right things about this not being a revenge game but they will be looking to get the monkey of beating the Seahawks off their backs. Aaron Rodgers has struggled mightily against Seattle but those games were in Seattle. Playing in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field should elevate his game. It also appears the Seahawks pass defense is not quite what it was, if their performance against the Rams last week is any indication. It might be that they are missing the presence of Kam Chancellor, who is still holding out for more money, despite having three years left on his contract. Rodgers showed that even without Jordy Nelson, he can still put up impressive numbers. The biggest beneficiary of Nelson's injury appears to be James Jones. Without Nelson getting injured, the Packers probably would have never brought Jones back into the fold. But there he was last week, catching two touchdown passes and looking like he had never left. The Packers defense had a hell of a time with Matt Forte last week and that could spell trouble this week as they try to stop Beast Mode Marshawn Lynch. Homefield has made a tremendous advantage for Seattle when these teams have played, and I think the Lambeau crowd will make the difference in this one.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Seattle 26


Monday, September 21

New York Jets (1-0) at Indianapolis (0-1), Indianapolis favored by 7

The Colts come into this game as a desperate team after an embarrassing performance in Buffalo last week. Their high powered offense was shut out for most of the game and their new acquisitions Frank Gore and Andre Johnson did next to nothing. The Colts offense has to get on track because the defense is still mediocre at best. The Colts defense should be able to limit a Jets offense that doesn't have a whole ton of weapons aside from Brandon Marshall. Chris Ivory can be dangerous as a running back but he suffers from the Jets never truly committing to giving him the ball. The Jets defense, especially Darrelle Revis will present challenges for Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton. It is imperative that Gore and Johnson start producing this week and I think they will.

Prediction: Indianapolis 27, New York Jets 17

Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 11-5

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-5-1
Overall Against the Spread: 10-5-1