The Hail Mary - Week 11

Sunday, November 17

Washington (3-6) at Philadelphia (5-5), Philadelphia favored by 3

It seems like I have been saying this every week for the past month, but this Sunday is really do or die for the Redskins season. If they lose this game they will fall 2 1/2 games out of first place, and really 3 1/2 since the Eagles would have swept the season series. The Eagles probably wish this game was in Washington, as they have lost 10 straight games at home. To me, everything is lining up just right for the Redskins to be the team the Eagles break that streak against. Nick Foles incredible run continued last week against Green Bay, as he threw three more touchdowns and no interceptions, upping his season total to 16 TDs and 0 INTs. The Redskins have been saying all week that they will be prepared this time around for Chip Kelly's offense, but they were saying that before the season opener as well. The Eagles defense has been playing better as of late, even when the Eagles could do nothing on offense, so Philly might be coming together as a football team at the right time. Redskins fans hanging their hat on a turnaround this season because it happened last year need to get with reality. The defense seemingly can't stop any quarterback, so I expect Foles to have another impressive day and Philly to drive a stake through the heart of the Redskins playoff chances.

Prediction: Philadelphia 28, Washington 23

New York Jets (5-4) at Buffalo (3-7), Buffalo favored by 1

Ed Reed wasn't out of work long. Rex Ryan, his former defensive coordinator in Baltimore picked up the safety and Reed may make his debut for the Jets on Sunday. Believe it or not the Jets currently sit all alone in the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC. The Bills are starting at another playoff-less season and will be looking to develop EJ Manuel the rest of the season and play the role of spoiler. The Jets, especially QB Geno Smith have had their share of troubles on the road with turnovers, and I think Mario Williams will make some plays that will carry Buffalo to a win.

Prediction: Buffalo 23, New York Jets 17

Baltimore (4-5) at Chicago (5-4), Chicago favored by 3

Jay Cutler came back sooner than anyone thought and then was promptly hurt again, meaning Josh McCown is back in the saddle as the Bears starter on Sunday. McCown has been very good any time he has played for Cutler this season so I don't expect the Bears to miss a beat. The Ravens held on to beat Cincinnati at home last weekend, but the road has been a different story for them this season. The Bears are banged up and not very good on defense, but the Ravens don't have an offense that will be able to exploit those weaknesses. The Ravens have to be hoping that Ray Rice's struggles this season are just a mirage and not a sign of an impending decline.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Baltimore 17

Cleveland (4-5) at Cincinnati (6-4), Cincinnati favored by 6 1/2

The Bengals goal in this game will not only be to win but to actually score a touchdown this time against the Browns stingy defense. Jason Campbell has been a breath of fresh air for the Browns offense since he was inserted for the putrid Brandon Weeden. The Bengals have had some tough road losses the past two weeks so they will be excited to return home. Especially Andy Dalton, who has struggled badly in the Bengals two straight losses. This will be a tough, defensive battle, and likely will come down to whichever team has the ball last winning the game.

Prediction: Cincinnati 18, Cleveland 15

Detroit (6-3) at Pittsburgh (3-6), Detroit favored by 2

Last week's win over the Bears at Soldier Field was a statement win for the Lions. With Aaron Rodgers out indefinitely for the Packers, the Lions appear to be the front runners in the NFC North. They have another tough road test this weekend at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh has won two straight games at home, and their defense has been especially stingy in those games. However, they haven't faced a combo like Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson in those games. I also think the Lions pass rush could have a field day chasing after Ben Roethlisberger and expect Ndamukong Suh to make his presence felt. If anyone has any doubts left about the Lions, another road win this weekend will squash them.

Prediction: Detroit 30, Pittsburgh 23

Atlanta (2-7) at Tampa Bay (1-8), Atlanta favored by 1

Yuck.

Prediction: Atlanta 25, Tampa Bay 21

Arizona (5-4) at Jacksonville (1-8), Arizona favored by 6 1/2

I thought Jacksonville was on their way to being the second team to finish 0-16 but lo and behold they went to Tennessee and beat the Titans. Next step, score a touchdown in a home game at Jacksonville, something they have not yet done. I expect that streak to fall as well, but I don't expect this to be the start of a winning culture for the Jaguars. Not when their offense takes on the talented Cardinals defense, especially that secondary. Offensively, Arizona has to find a way to get Andre Ellington the ball more. I am not just saying that because I have him on multiple fantasy teams either. Rashard Mendenhall has nothing left in the tank, and the Cardinals could take a lot of pressure off mistake prone Carson Palmer if they ride with Ellington more. The Cardinals are quietly creeping up on the 49ers and could be a factor in the playoff race in the last few months of the season.

Prediction: Arizona 35, Jacksonville 14

Oakland (3-6) at Houston (2-7), Houston favored by 7

Another putrid game on this weekend's schedule. I don't think the Texans are going to finish 2-14 and with how well Case Keenum has played since becoming the starter, they seem due for a victory. The shine is starting to come off Terrelle Pryor who is struggling mightily to get the Raiders passing game going. Maybe the return of Gary Kubiak to the sidelines will inspire the Texans to victory.

Prediction: Houston 30, Oakland 24

San Diego (4-5) at Miami (4-5), San Diego favored by 1 1/2

A key AFC matchup between two teams trying to stay in the race for the final playoff spot in the AFC. The Dolphins had a terrible loss at Tampa last weekend, and of course everyone blamed it on the controversy surrounding the team. However, the Dolphins had the lead late in that game and it simply came down to them not executing on offense or defense. They couldn't run the ball at all and Ryan Tannehill is not skilled enough to carry the offense without help. Maybe Mike Wallace can make an appearance in this game against the porous Chargers secondary. I am just not sure if the offensive line will be able to keep Tannehill upright enough, and the Dolphins are really trending downwards right now.

Prediction: San Diego 26, Miami 23

San Francisco (6-3) at New Orleans (7-2), New Orleans favored by 3

The 49ers struggles in the passing game reared their ugly head last week in a disappointing loss to Carolina. The passing game is the worst in the NFL and it is hard to figure out if it is Colin Kaepernick regressing, or the fact that the 49ers receivers aren't very good. Vernon Davis left the game early with a concussion and anytime he has been out this season, the 49ers can get nothing going through the air. Michael Crabtree can't come back soon enough. The Saints put on an offensive and defensive clinic last Sunday night, and are looking unbeatable in the Superdome. The 49ers defense is going to have win this game for San Francisco, by creating turnovers and short fields for the offense. Unfortunately, I don't believe the defense is at the level they were a couple years ago, and I think Drew Brees and his many weapons will be too much.

Prediction: New Orleans 29, San Francisco 20

Minnesota (2-7) at Seattle (9-1), Seattle favored by 13

Seattle got a nice, dominant win over Atlanta last week after two straight underwhelming wins. They could just about clinch the NFC West with a win and a Niners loss on Sunday. Christian Ponder had one of the best games of his career last weekend against Washington, but the competition steps up considerably on Sunday. The Seahawks have struggled at times to stop the run so I feel like Adrian Peterson can make some plays happen and keep the Vikings within shouting distance. There is a chance that former Vikings WR Percy Harvin will make his Seahawks debut in this game. Even without Harvin, the Seahawks could just give it to Marshawn Lynch all game and they would beat the Vikings.

Prediction: Seattle 35, Minnesota 24

Green Bay (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6), New York Giants favored by 6 1/2

Aaron Rodgers is making it plain as day that he is clearly the MVP of the league. The Packers offense looks like the Colts offense did two years ago when they didn't have Peyton Manning. They finally signed Matt Flynn after losing Seneca Wallace for the season, but Scott Tolzein, who was on the practice squad a few weeks ago, will be the starter for now. The Giants have a great chance to win their fourth straight after an 0-6 start. I don't think they are particularly good, they just have benefited from a break in their schedule. Their run game will be drastically improved, as shown last week with the return of Andre Brown. The Packers don't have a good enough defense to compensate for their offensive struggles. They are lucky that Eddie Lacy has been as good as he has, because with no run game, they would be getting blown out each week. Eli Manning will do something stupid to keep the Packers in the game, but the Giants should hold on for the win.

Prediction: New York Giants 27, Green Bay 20

Kansas City (9-0) at Denver (8-1), Denver favored by 8 1/2

The schedule makers had no idea when they put the schedule together that this game would be so huge, but it has added to the buildup that these teams beasts are meeting for the first time in Week 11. It is Denver's high octane offense against Kansas City's beast of a defense. Peyton Manning was hobbling at the end of last week's game and it looked like for a second the Chiefs would once again get to face a backup quarterback. But Peyton insists he will play and the Chiefs defense will have to be ready for their biggest challenge yet. I think the Chiefs can hold Denver to their lowest offensive output so far this season, but Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles are going to have do their part if Kansas City will have a chance to pull off the upset. Charles should be as good as ever, but Alex Smith might get exposed on a national stage. He has been riding the coat tails of the defense all season long, much like he did in San Francisco. He still isn't someone you can ask to go out and win a game for you. Also, KC might want to keep tabs on Dwayne Bowe, considering he will be in Colorado and could have plenty of access to marijuana. The Chiefs are good, but they aren't well rounded enough of a team to beat Denver, especially on the road.

Prediction: Denver 26, Kansas City 22


Monday, November 18

New England (7-2) at Carolina (6-3), Carolina favored by 2

Another excellent prime time game will be on Monday night between the Patriots and Panthers. This could prove to be another offense versus defense battle, as the Patriots offense showed some life two weeks ago, while the Panthers defense has looked dominant during the team's five game winning streak. I wasn't sold on Carolina but after watching last week's game, that is a championship defense they have over there. While the offense isn't great, its not like Cam Newton is Alex Smith or anything. I'm not ready to believe that because they obliterated Pittsburgh, now the New England offense and especially Tom Brady are going to roll the clock back to 2007. The Steelers defense is old and leaky, the Panthers are very young on defense and I think it could be a very frustrating night for Brady and company. The Panthers are equally as stout against the run, so it will be interesting to watch how effective the Patriots offense can be. I expect another huge win for the Panthers and their bandwagon to start to get full.

Prediction: Carolina 20, New England 17


Last Week Against the Spread: 8-6
Overall Against the Spread: 74-69-4

Last Week Straight Up: 8-6
Overall Straight Up: 100-47

Cram Session - Week 12

Thursday, November 14

Indianapolis (6-3) vs. Tennessee (4-5), Indianapolis favored by 3


Prediction: Indianapolis 34, Tennessee 20


Games That Matter To Me

#16 Michigan State (8-1, 5-0) at Nebraska (7-2, 4-1)


Prediction: Michigan State 19, Nebraska 16


Top 10

Thursday, November 14

Georgia Tech (6-3, 5-2) at #8 Clemson (8-1, 6-1)


Prediction: Clemson 35, Georgia Tech 20


Saturday, November 16

#1 Alabama (9-0, 6-0) at Mississippi State (4-5, 1-4)


Prediction: Alabama 40, Mississippi State 13

Syracuse (5-4, 3-2) at #2 Florida State (9-0, 7-0)


Prediction: Florida State 48, Syracuse 14

#3 Ohio State (9-0, 5-0) at Illinois (3-6, 0-5)


Prediction: Ohio State 52, Illinois 24

#4 Stanford (8-1, 6-1) at USC (7-3, 4-2)


Prediction: Stanford 28, USC 24

Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3) vs #5 Baylor (8-0, 5-0) in Arlington, Texas


Prediction: Baylor 54, Texas Tech 34

Utah (4-5, 1-5) at #6 Oregon (8-1, 5-1)


Prediction: Oregon 49, Utah 17

#25 Georgia (6-3, 4-2) at #7 Auburn (9-1, 5-1)


Prediction: Auburn 42, Georgia 34

Florida (4-5, 3-4) at #10 South Carolina (7-2, 5-2)


Prediction: South Carolina 27, Florida 17

Last Week: 4-4
Overall: 88-16

The Hail Mary - Week 10

Sunday, November 10

Philadelphia (4-5) at Green Bay (5-3), Green Bay favored by 2 1/2

These two teams perfectly capture just how much the landscape can change in the NFL on a week to week basis. Before last week's game the Eagles had been held without a touchdown on offense in back to back games. There was talk about how much of a failure the Chip Kelly offense had been, and how the Eagles needed to find their franchise quarterback. Then Nick Foles goes out and ties an NFL record by throwing 7 TD passes. He now has 13 TDs and 0 INTs this year, which are Peyton Manning like numbers. For Green Bay, their season went up in the air in an instant as soon as Aaron Rodgers was sacked and fractured his collarbone. The Packers had already been besieged by injuries, but with Rodgers under center they were able to overcome them. Sticking Seneca Wallace under center doesn't have quite the same affect. The Packers could be without Rodgers for at least a month, which to me meant they would give Matt Flynn a call. He knows the system and has performed well in the system when given a chance. However, no call to Flynn has been made, so Mike McCarthy seems content to go with Wallace right now. Normally, I wouldn't give Philly a chance in Lambeau, but without Rodgers the look of the Packers offense changes considerably. Eddie Lacy should have another big game, but I think the Packers passing game will struggle yet again. Foles won't have a monster game like last week, but I expect him to be solid.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Green Bay 20

Seattle (8-1) at Atlanta (2-6), Seattle favored by 6 1/2

A rematch of last season's classic NFC Divisional Round game. Quite a bit has changed since that January afternoon, as the Falcons have imploded and the Seahawks are currently the best team in the NFC. Matt Ryan has struggled mightily the last two weeks without his top two receivers. There is a chance Roddy White will be back Sunday, which would be fun to see him renew his rivalry with Richard Sherman. The Seahawks have looked vulnerable the last two weeks, barely beating crappy teams St. Louis and Tampa Bay. The 49ers would love for the Seahawks to drop a game ahead of their matchup with each other but I think that on Sunday the Seahawks will once again find a way to slither away with a victory. Marshawn Lynch should have a big day for Seattle against the Falcons poor run defense.

Prediction: Seattle 30, Atlanta 24

Detroit (5-3) at Chicago (5-3), No Line

Jay Cutler' has been cleared and appears set to start on Sunday for the Bears. The Bears seem to have finally gotten their backup quarterback situation right. Josh McCown has been solid since having to step in for Cutler. Whoever starts for Chicago in this game, I like the Bears to win at home. The Lions offense doesn't seem to be as crisp on the road, so I don't expect Reggie Bush and Matthew Stafford to go off like they did when these teams played in Detroit. The Bears offensive line has been playing well, so that should mitigate the impact that Ndamukong Suh and that Lions defensive line will have on the game.

Prediction: Chicago 28, Detroit 21

Jacksonville (0-8) at Tennessee (4-4), Tennessee favored by 13

I watched this special on Discovery channel that focused on the Jaguars/Niners game in London and it was amazing how positive Jaguars coach Gus Bradley remains. His father had just died, his football team is atrocious, but the guys kept smiling. The players seem to really like him, unfortunately, if they don't start winning games he won't be around much longer. You couldn't pay me to pick the Jaguars in a game right now. The AFC South is down to the Colts and Titans right now, so games like these are must win for Tennessee.

Prediction: Tennessee 35, Jacksonville 16

St. Louis (3-6) at Indianapolis (6-2), Indianapolis favored by 10

I was not as fast as others to jump on the Andrew Luck bandwagon, but I'd have to be a fool to not recognize that he has proven himself as a top tier quarterback this season. He could still stand to raise that completion percentage, but he has cut way down on the turnovers this season. The way he helped bring the Colts back at Houston last weekend was highly impressive. The Rams are still competing hard but don't have the players on offense to consistently win games. However, it had to be nice for them to see Zac Stacy break out last weekend against a tough defense in Tennessee. If Stacy can run consistently well that will take a lot of pressure off of Kellen Clemens. Plus, their young defense has been up and down all season. I expect them to stay within shouting distance of Indianapolis but for Luck and the Colts to win again.

Prediction: Indianapolis 31, St. Louis 22

Oakland (3-5) at New York Giants (2-6), New York Giants favored by 7 1/2

Despite being 2-6, the Giants remain very much a part of the NFC East race. They go for their third straight victory against a struggling Oakland offense. Terrelle Pryor has had his moments but hasn't been able to consistently get the Raiders passing game to produce. Darren McFadden is once again injured, so the Raiders will have to get something going with the passing game to have a chance on Sunday. After the way Foles lit up the Raiders secondary, Eli Manning has to be licking his chops. The Giants will also receive a boost to their run game, as RB Andre Brown is expected to make his debut and split carries with Brandon Jacobs and Peyton Hills.

Prediction: New York Giants 32, Oakland 25

Buffalo (3-6) at Pittsburgh (2-6), Pittsburgh favored by 3 1/2

The Steelers season reached a new low last week when they allowed 55 points to the Patriots. The Steelers just aren't very good and age has seemed to catch up to the team in critical positions. The Bills will have E.J. Manuel back, which is good news after Jeff Tuel time had to start for them last week. These teams are about equal in my opinion talent wise, so if in doubt, go with the homefield advantage.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Buffalo 17

Cincinnati (6-3) at Baltimore (3-5), Cincinnati favored by 1 1/2

I have to say, I am feeling pretty good about myself as the Ravens are proving me right in my belief that they would be pretty bad this season. They are halfway to the 6-10 mark I predicted for them. All the problems I expected with trying to have Joe Flacco carry your offense with no weapons are coming to fruition. I guess one thing that has been stunning is how terrible a player Ray Rice has been this season. Some of it is the fault of a poor offensive line, but Rice is an explosive back, sometimes you have to make plays happen on your own. The Bengals are the best of a bad division, which is good news for them as they are losing players to injuries on the defense at an alarming rate. Geno Atkins was the latest to go down, and Andy Dalton proved that talk of his ascension to elite might have been premature with a poor performance against Miami. The Ravens aren't good but they are still a tough team to beat at home. With all the injuries facing the Bengals defense, I think Flacco and company can make enough plays to keep their season alive for now.

Prediction: Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 20

Carolina (5-3) at San Francisco (6-2), San Francisco favored by 6

Pinto vs. Hirsch. My most loyal reader Matt Pinto has got to be filled with joy over the four game winning streak his Panthers are on. They pushed the Falcons aside last week and have made the NFC South a two team race between themselves and the Saints. However, plenty of doubters of the Panthers still remain. They rightfully point out that the four teams the Panthers have beaten during this streak are a combined 6-27. But this Sunday in San Francisco, we will get a true barometer of just how much Carolina has improved. The biggest improvement for Carolina from last season is that they are back to being able to run the ball effectively. That will be a difficult task against the 49ers, who are 12th in the league against the run. The 49ers defense is also expected to have Aldon Smith back for this game. The 49ers got some good news during their bye week, as Mario Manningham should be back for this game, and Michael Crabtree has begun passing. They could use all the help they can get for their passing game which ranks dead last in the NFL. That hasn't really mattered though because their rushing game is first in the league and Frank Gore is once again averaging over 4 yards per carry. The Panthers are second in the league against the rush, so Colin Kaepernick may have to make more plays with his arm this game than he has been used to having to do this season. I'm a wait and see type of guy and until the Panthers beat teams with a pulse, I'm not buying what they're selling.

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Carolina 17

Houston (2-6) at Arizona (4-4), Arizona favored by 2 1/2

Case Keenum appears to be the truth. Matt Schaub should get used to that spot on the bench and stop with his Alex Smith impersonation of wearing his helmet on the sidelines like he might go in at any minute. Keenum lit up the Colts in the first half, but then him and his teammates let down in the second half, mostly because they were worried about the health of their coach Gary Kubiak. Wade Phillips is taking over as the interim coach, but I don't expect him to change the Texans fortunes. Whatever mojo the Texans had the last few years appears gone, and their defense especially isn't making key stops. The Cardinals are a tough team to beat in Arizona, and with emerging running back Andre Ellington, they hopefully won't have to ask Carson Palmer to make too many plays.

Prediction: Arizona 26, Houston 21

Denver (7-1) at San Diego (4-4), Denver favored by 7

The Chargers are coming off a brutal loss at Washington. Any time you have first and goal at the 1 to win the game, then you should win the game. It was curious to me how Ryan Mathews disappeared from the gameplan. He was running pretty well against Washington in the first half, but then the Chargers went exclusively with Danny Woodhead in the backfield. Denver starts the second half of their season without their head coach, John Fox. Fox had to have heart surgery, so Jack Del Rio is taking over in place of him. Let's be hones though, Del Rio will still command the defense, but Peyton Manning is the coach of the offense. We will learn a lot about just how good the Broncos are these next few weeks, with their next five games being against teams that are .500 or better. The Chargers porous secondary is going to be in trouble with Denver's multiple wideout sets. Philip Rivers will probably throw for a ton of yards, but I don't think the Chargers will achieve the balance on offense necessary to beat Denver.

Prediction: Denver 35, San Diego 27

Dallas (5-4) at New Orleans (6-2), New Orleans favored by 7

It is always fun when these two teams get together. Expect lots of points, and a lot of passing, with very little rushing attempts in between. The Saints are coming off a highly disappointing performance against the Jets and the offense especially struggled. Brees made a few too many careless passes with the ball and obviously missed the presence of Darren Sproles and Marques Colston. Colston and Sproles are both questionable for this game, but if Colston does play, the Saints have to hope that he and Brees can get back on the same page. Jimmy Graham has been excellent but the Saints need their other wideouts like Kenny Stills, Lance Moore, and Robert Meachem to be more consistent. The Cowboys got DeMarco Murray back but still seem to avoid running the ball like it is a virus. Without a run game, Dallas will continue to be the average team they have been for so long. The Cowboys number one objective either via the draft or free agency should be to complement Tony Romo with a top flight running back.

Prediction: New Orleans 41, Dallas 27


Monday, November 11

Miami (4-4) at Tampa Bay (0-8), Miami favored by 2 1/2

The Dolphins have a game this weekend? You wouldn't know it based on all the talk surrounding the team concerning Richie Incognito's alleged bullying of Jonathan Martin. I think what has surprised me the most about this whole ordeal is the fact that Incognito called Martin the n word and yet people are still defending Incognito. Remember when Riley Cooper got caught saying the n word and people wanted him kicked out of the league? Why do people seem to care so little about Incognito saying it? It is hard to really have a firm opinion on this because no one outside of the locker room knows these guys relationship and what led up to Martin freaking out and leaving the team. I do know that the voice mail Incognito left went way too far, but I also think it was poor form on Martin's part to walk out on his teammates in the middle of a season. Coach Joe Philbin has to make sure that his players don't get too distracted by all the noise around them and are ready to focus on Tampa. Tampa proved that despite their dismal record they are no walk over after nearly beating Seattle. I thought they had quit on Greg Schiano, but the effort they had last Sunday proved me wrong. The Bucs are hungry for a win and this is a dangerous game for Miami if they aren't ready to play. The Dolphins were already weak at offensive line and now are missing two starters from the line so Tannehill will really need to develop some wheels. The Dolphins run game has looked good the past two games, but they have to be ready for Bucs RB Mike James who gashed the Seahawks. I've already devoted entirely too many words to this game.

Prediction: Miami 24, Tampa Bay 21


Last Week Against the Spread: 5-8
Overall Against the Spread: 66-63-4

Last Week Straight Up: 8-5
Overall Straight Up: 92-41

Cram Session - Week 11

Thursday, November 7

Washington (3-5) at Minnesota (1-7), Washington favored by 2 1/2

San Diego had a first and goal at the 1 and the Redskins season appeared to be ending at the halfway mark. But then, the much maligned defense made three straight stops, and the Redskins eventually went on to win in overtime, keeping alive their hopes in the awful NFC East. The defense has received a lot of grief but they have forced takeaways in 12 straight games and have bailed the offense out a few times this season. Robert Griffin III still isn't the guy he was last year, especially his decision making, but he was bailed out a few times by Pierre Garcon, who made some ridiculous catches. The Redskins now have to travel to Minnesota on a short week and face a Vikings team desperate for a win. Minnesota is ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball and is playing for nothing but pride at this point. The Vikings outplayed the Cowboys in Dallas last week, but once again found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Adrian Peterson was running like the back we saw last season, refusing to be taken down. Christian Ponder played well enough to continue to make Josh Freeman a complete waste of a pick-up. The Vikings benefited from the Cowboys inability to run the ball, but the combo of Alfred Morris and Roy Helu should find plenty of holes and opportunities. Overall, Minnesota has been good against the run but they have also played a lot of poor rushing teams. Who knows, maybe even FB Darrel Young will continue his tear. The Vikings receiving corps is mediocre at best. If I am Washington I am more concerned about Cordarelle Patterson than I am Greg Jennings. The Vikings have typically been a good home team, but haven't won in the Metrodome yet this season, and have lost their last two games by double digits at home. The Redskins will lose if their offensive line struggles and lets Jared Allen get going. Also, with the struggles of their special teams, Patterson will have a chance to make some plays returning kicks. But otherwise, I think the Redskins are more talented than Minnesota and their strength of running the football will carry them to their first winning streak of the season. Plus, the Vikings terrible secondary could mean plenty of big plays for Garcon, Leonard Hankerson, and Jordan Reed.

Prediction: Washington 30, Minnesota 21


Games That Matter To Me

#23 Notre Dame (7-2) at Pittsburgh (4-4)

Notre Dame survived by the skin of their teeth against an underrated Navy team. Just ask Pittsburgh how good Navy is, since the Midshipmen beat the Panthers two weeks ago. The Irish are likely for another close one at Pitt on Saturday night. Last season Pittsburgh came very close to ruining Notre Dame's perfect season, before collapsing late at South Bend. The Irish defense struggled last weekend, which has to give hope to a Pitt offense that was horrific against Georgia Tech last week. The Panthers rushing attack has really struggled the last two weeks. After a 240 yard rushing performance against Old Dominion, Panthers RB Isaac Bennett has just 93 yards in his past two games. The struggles of the run game put too much pressure on QB Tom Savage. Savage is solid, and has two good targets in freshman Tyler Boyd, who exploded for 11 catches last week and senior Devin Street.

The revolving door that is the running back position at Notre Dame seems to have a new front runner, freshman Tarean Folston. Folston saw his first extended action of the season last week against Navy and delivered in spades, rushing for 140 yards and a touchdown. Maybe Folston can take command of the job, and then have Cam McDaniel and George Atkinson III serve as complements. Rees was back to his turnover happy self against Navy last week, but did complete his passes for a staggering 12 yards per pass. WR TJ Jones continues to be his favorite target and could be in line for some more big plays against the Panthers.

The Irish will struggle beacuse that is what they do almost every week. Pitt will give them a battle, especially being at home, but in the end, I think Notre Dame has too many playmakers on offense than the Pitt defense will be able to handle. The Irish defense hasn't been great but with Pittsburgh struggling to run the ball recently, hopefully they lock down Bennett.

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Pittsburgh 20

Nebraska (6-2, 3-1) at Michigan (6-2, 2-2)

Jordan Westerkamp joined Matt Davison in the annals of Nebraska history for memorable catches as he hauled in Robert Kellogg III's hail mary at the end of last week's game, saving Nebraska's season for the time being. I can't imagine how ugly things would have been in Lincoln this week for Bo Pelini if the Huskers had lost that game. Lost in the Hail Mary is the amazing play that Ameer Abdullah made to convert a 4th and 15 on that drive. He had to get about six or seven extra yards after the catch and fought his heart out to get them. The Huskers will probably have to say a bunch of Hail Mary's to win in Michigan this weekend. They will once again more than likely be without Taylor Martinez, which means Kellogg and Tommy Armstrong Jr. will probably split duties. The Huskers want to get the freshman Armstrong experience, but he has been terrible in his last two games, throwing interceptions in each. He does give the Huskers the threat of the run from the quarterback decision but Kellogg, a senior, makes better decisions with the football. For the Huskers to stay in the game Saturday, I think Kellogg has to see the majority of the snaps.

The Michigan offense will probably think its Christmas morning getting to play the Huskers mediocre defense a week after having to contend with the Michigan State Spartans beastly defense. Devin Gardner should be licking his chops, as versatile quarterbacks have given Nebraska fits this season. Where the Wolverines could be in trouble is if their offensive line plays another poor game. They haven't given Gardner a lot of time and haven't been finding many holes for senior RB Fitzgerald Toussaint. The player to watch on the outside is WR Jeremy Gallon. Gallon came back to Earth last week after his ridiculously dominating performance against Indiana, where he had 369 yards receiving. But he still managed to grab a catch for 35 yards and if Gardner has time to find him, I expect Gallon to make an impact against a questionable Nebraska secondary.

Even with Martinez I wouldn't pick Nebraska to win at Michigan so without him the chances of a win happening are pretty slim. To win the Huskers defense would have to force Gardner into fumbles and interceptions and the Nebraska offense would have to play mistake free football. Instead, I think the Huskers will get behind early, forcing the quiet Michigan fans to make some noise, and Kellogg and Armstrong will become overwhelmed by the setting. Throw in the fact that Michigan is 19-0 at home under coach Brady Hoke and Saturday feels like mission impossible for Nebraska.

Prediction: Michigan 35, Nebraska 27


Top 10

Thursday, November 7

#3 Oregon (8-0, 5-0) at #5 Stanford (7-1, 5-1)

Game of the week and maybe even game of the season takes place tonight in Palo Alto. So much is at stake in this game. The Pac-12 North, a chance to play for a national title, for the Ducks a chance at revenge for last season, and for the Cardinal a chance to prove their superiority in front of their fans. You have Oregon's 19-game road winning streak going up against Stanford's 13-game home winning streak. In fact, Stanford handed Oregon their last road loss, way back in 2009. Stanford not only wants to end that streak, they also want to end Oregon QB Marcus Mariota's streak of not throwing an interception this season. Stanford has forced a turnover in 33 straight games, and with their previous success against Brett Hundley and Keith Price, and the success they had against Mariota last season they feel they have what it takes to force him into mistakes. Stanford's defense hasn't allowed 30+ points in a game this season, while Oregon hasn't scored less than 40 in a game. Oregon came into their game with Stanford last year on a similar run and then was shut down, held to just 14 points. I don't expect history to repeat itself tonight. Oregon running back De'Anthony Thomas thinks Oregon should lay 40 on Stanford. I don't think they will reach 40 but they will come close. I think Oregon will be a better, more prepared team because of last season's loss. I expect the offensive line to do a better job protecting Mariota than they did in last season's game. Another difference will be the play of the Oregon defense. It will be up to them stop Stanford RB Tyler Gaffney from beating them. Stanford's quarterback, Kevin Hogan won't be able to beat them, but if Gaffney is able to get going like he has most of the season, the rest of the Stanford offense will feed off of that. The Ducks defense is overlooked, but when they win tonight, they will get the credit they deserve.

Prediction: Oregon 35, Stanford 21

#10 Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1) at #6 Baylor (7-0, 4-0)

The Baylor Bears have run roughshod over their first seven opponents but beginning tonight we will start to truly learn what they are made of. Starting tonight, Baylor's next three opponents are all ranked in the Top 25 in a slate of games that will either make or break Baylor's season. Baylor leads the nation in scoring, averaging an eye popping 63 points per game. However, against the Sooners on Saturday Baylor will face the 10th ranked defense in the country. That being said, the Sooners haven't seen an offense as versatile as Baylor's. As a defense you basically have to pick your poison because the chances of you stopping all of their studs, including QB Bryce Petty, RB Lache Seastrunk and receivers Antwan Goodley and Tevin Reese are slim. While not as prolific Oklahoma has some offensive weapons of their own, like QB Blake Bell who save for a poor performance against Texas has been excellent this season. With so many big time games this weekend, I don't feel like it would be smart to pick chalk in all of them. This game is the one that to me we are most likely to see a mini-upset. This stage will be bigger than most Baylor players are use to, and in an added wrinkle the pressure and expectations are on them. Kansas State slowed this offense earlier this year, and I think the Sooners are a much more talented team.

Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Baylor 35


Saturday, November 9

#13 LSU (7-2, 3-2) at #1 Alabama (8-0, 5-0)

To me this game lost some of its luster once LSU lost at Ole Miss a few weeks ago. LSU finally has an offense that might be able to penetrate the Alabama defense, but I don't think their defense will be able to get enough stops to keep the Tigers in this game. The Tigers won't lack motivation since the Tide have won the past two meetings, but motivation is an overrated storyline that the media likes to pump up. The Tide defense did struggle the last time they faced a very good quarterback, so Zach Mettenberger should go into this game with a high level of confidence. However, Mettenberger also badly struggled in his last SEC game and the running game also struggled to get anything going. The Tide's two-headed rushing attack of T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake could find plenty of holes to run through against the Tigers leaky defense. AJ McCarron hasn't thrown an interception in a month, which has helped the defense to be dominant as they haven't been put in any compromising situations. LSU would have to play a perfect game to beat Alabama on the road, and the Bama defense has improved considerably since September's game against the Aggies. That means mistakes will be made by Mettenberger and this game will resemble the 2012 National Championship game.

Prediction: Alabama 34, LSU 17

#2 Florida State (8-0, 6-0) at Wake Forest (4-5, 2-4)

Things started a little bit dicey for the Seminoles against Miami last weekend, but in the second half Florida State showed their superiority, pulling away to a blowout victory and vaulting back up to #2 in the BCS standings. QB Jameis Winston has been so good this year that the media was desperate to label him as facing adversity against Miami because he threw 2 interceptions. Nevermind that the Seminoles never trailed once in the game. The media won't be able to ascribe any ideas of adversity for Winston this weekend against Wake Forest. If the Seminoles keep playing as well as they have on both sides of the ball, nothing will stand in their way of an undefeated season.

Prediction: Florida State 48, Wake Forest 14

#8 Missouri (8-1, 4-1) at Kentucky (2-6, 0-4)

Last week was an impressive win for the Tigers against Tennessee. Not so much because they beat Tennessee, who isn't very good but because they showed no hangover effect from their devastating loss to South Carolina. That is the sign of a mature team, and one that knows they still control their own destiny in the SEC East. The next step they can take in their maturation process is by winning handily on the road against an inferior opponent.

Prediction: Missouri 33, Kentucky 16

#9 Auburn (8-1, 4-1) at Tennessee (4-5, 1-4)

The Tigers were impressive last week in a potential trap game against an underwhelming opponent on the road when they blasted Arkansas. They face a similar test Saturday when they face the Vols in Knoxville. The Vols have been a good home team, winning four of five games there, with the lone loss being a 3 point defeat against Georgia. This is the fifth straight week Tennessee has played a Top 15 team, so they are certainly battle tested. Their best chance to win this game is to put it in the passing hands of Tigers quarterback Nick Marshall. Auburn has been so successful this season because of their run game, especially the play of RB Tre Mason. The Vols surrendered 339 yards rushing at Missouri last week, so they will need a major improvement from the defense this weekend if they want any chances of springing the upset.

Prediction: Auburn 31, Tennessee 27

Last Week: 6-0
Overall: 84-12

The Hail Mary - Week 9

Sunday, November 3

Minnesota (1-6) at Dallas (4-4), Dallas favored by 10 1/2

The Cowboys reached a new low against Detroit last week in finding a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. However, if they lose to the hapless Vikings at home on Sunday, that would be an even lower point. Leslie Frazier hasn't decided yet between Josh Freeman and Christian Ponder as his starting quarterback. Not because they are both so tremendous, but because he can't figure out which one sucks less. Whoever starts, I don't think they will take advantage of the Cowboys having the worst pass defense in the league. The Vikings offensive gameplan needs to be more like last season's, just keep feeding Adrian Peterson no matter what. The Cowboys expect to have DeMarco Murray back for this game, another weapon that should feast on a porous Vikings defense. I would be shocked if Tony Romo doesn't at least pass for 300 yards, and Dez Bryant doesn't have a big game.

Prediction: Dallas 34, Minnesota 24

San Diego (4-3) at Washington (2-5), Line is pick em'

Do or die for the Redskins on Sunday against San Diego. The schedule lines up nicely for Washington the next three weeks with this winnable game at home against San Diego and then winnable home games on the road against Minnesota and Philadelphia. But if they fall to the Chargers Sunday, any talk of the playoffs can pretty much cease. Yes, I know they were 3-6 and made it last year, but runs like that don't happen every season. The Redskins passing offense was very bad last week, but they face a terrible Chargers secondary this weekend. The Chargers rush defense isn't much better so hopefully Kyle Shanahan leans on and sticks with Alfred Morris this week, something he didn't do when Morris was running well last weekend against Denver. The Redskins defense will likely be in for a long day trying to stop the San Diego passing attack. Philip Rivers might be the front runner for Comeback Player of the Year right now. He's turning guys like Eddie Royal and Keenan Allen into one of the best passing offenses in football. The Chargers have an inconsistent running game but against the putrid Redskins rushing defense Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews will have opportunities to break big runs. Robert Griffin III played his best game of the season at home two weeks ago, but with his left knee now hurting, he more than likely won't be able to do much running. But against the Chargers porous secondary I am confident Griffin can make plays passing and not necessarily have to run. It would be nice if Pierre Garcon became more involved in the offense, as he has been a somewhat forgotten man these last few weeks. As I have mentioned before, the Skins seem to perform best with their backs against the wall, and that is what I am counting on helping lead them to victory on Sunday.

Prediction: Washington 35, San Diego 31

Kansas City (8-0) at Buffalo (3-5), Kansas City favored by 3

Matt Flynn has fallen so far that the thought of him potentially starting this game instead of Thad Lewis has Bills fans concerned. Lewis is a 50/50 bet to start his week as he deals with sore ribs. The Chiefs are coming off another unimpressive win, this time over Cleveland, but you can't really argue with 8-0. The defense continues to be excellent and has made it irrelevant that the Chiefs have only topped 30 points once this season. These are the two best teams in the league at getting sacks so it should be a long day for whoever Buffalo starts, as well as for Alex Smith. I expect the Chiefs to be in another close game, but once again come away with the win.

Prediction: Kansas City 23, Buffalo 17

Tennessee (3-4) at St. Louis (3-5), Tennessee favored by 3

Jeff Fisher faces his former team for the first time, in a game that is must win for one of these teams to remain in playoff discussion. The Titans haven't won in a month and with their defense getting to face backup Kellen Clemens, this is as good a chance as any to get a win. The Rams defense has been much improved the last few weeks, but with Clemens under center now, they have no choice. Clemens played decently against Seattle but the offense still managed just three field goals, and couldn't get a touchdown at the end of the game. The Rams rushing attack finally showed some signs of life last week, as Zac Stacy is doing what Daryl Richardson couldn't and grinding out yards. I think the bye week will serve Jake Locker well and I expect a performance closer to what we saw from him the first four weeks, then what we saw against San Francisco a few weeks ago.

Prediction: Tennessee 27, St. Louis 14

New Orleans (6-1) at New York Jets (4-4), New Orleans favored by 5 1/2

Kind of surprised I haven't heard about any quotes going back and forth between Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and Jets coach Rex Ryan. Rex hasn't even bothered putting on a wig to look like his brother, and it was just Halloween! The New York Jets are the most Jekly and Hyde team in football. Some weeks they look like the worst team in football they were expected to be. Then other weeks, they pull wins out of their asses against the Patriots. This week against Drew Brees, I don't expect the Jets to be pulling off any upsets. Brees is coming off another 5 touchdown performance, and now has the most career 5 TD games in NFL history. The Jets made Andy Dalton look elite last week, so even if Brees isn't in the comfy confines of the Superdome, I still expect him and his many weapons to have big games.

Prediction: New Orleans 30, New York Jets 17

Atlanta (2-5) at Carolina (4-3), Carolina favored by 7 1/2

This is the Falcons last shot at salvaging their season, and it couldn't come against a worse team, the Panthers, winners of three straight. QB Cam Newton is back in the spotlight as during these three games he has been playing the best football of his NFL career. When faced with a better defense in the Cardinals last week, Matt Ryan crumpled and showed how much he misses Julio Jones and Roddy White. Now he faces the Panthers top 10 passing defense. Steven Jackson returned last week but was a non-factor and likely will be again this weekend against the Panthers second ranked rush defense. My most loyal reader Matt Pinto will be happy to see me picking his favorite team win another game.

Prediction: Carolina 25, Atlanta 20

Philadelphia (3-5) at Oakland (3-4), No Line for this Game

My, oh my, how far the Chip Kelly offense has fallen. After lighting up the Skins in the first half of the opener all the talk was about how his fast paced offense was going to revolutionize the game. Now, the offense can't even score touchdowns, held without a touchdown in back to back home losses to the Cowboys and Giants. The good news for Philadelphia is they are on the road this week, where they have won three games. Nick Foles will be making his third start of the season, and the Eagles hope they get the Foles that played so well against Tampa, and not the awful Foles that played against Dallas. They also need to get LaSean McCoy going again. McCoy still leads the league in rushing but has been a non-factor in the Eagles past two losses. The Eagles defense has been much better the past two weeks but they could have their work cut out for them if Terrelle Pryor starts running. Pryor passing would be much more to the Eagles liking since Pryor has struggled mightily in his past two games. Also, Raiders RB Darren McFadden has looked rejuvenated the last few weeks. The Eagles do have a good rush defense and a bad pass defense, so the Raiders sort of play into their hands. But with how off the offense has looked, I can't pick the Eagles to go into the black hole and pick up the victory.

Prediction: Oakland 24, Philadelphia 17

Tampa Bay (0-7) at Seattle (7-1), Seattle favored by 16 1/2

The Rams almost did the 49ers a huge favor by upsetting the Seahawks, but unfortunately the Seahawks managed to survive. Russell Wilson receives a lot of credit but it was obvious last week how dependent this offense is on Marshawn Lynch and how well he plays. With Lynch doing next to nothing, Wilson and the Seahawks offense was dreadful. The Bucs appeared to have quit on coach Greg Schiano, as the defense has given up more than 30 points in their last three games. Bucs quarterback Mike Glennon will be looking to outplay his former NC State teammate, Wilson. The chances of that happening would be slim as it is, but even more so in Seattle. Wilson lost Sidney Rice for the season, so he has got to be hoping that Percy Harvin is truly close to making his Seahawks debut.

Prediction: Seattle 37, Tampa Bay 17

Baltimore (3-4) at Cleveland (3-5), Baltimore favored by 2 1/2

Browns quarterback Jason Campbell actually played pretty well at Kansas City last week, keeping the Browns competitive. The Ravens are hoping that Ray Rice got a little healthier during the bye week and he will finally start to resemble the running back they are used to seeing. They also hope that history will be an indication of how this game will go, since Joe Flacco is 11-0 in his career against the Browns. Flacco will have his work cut out for his this time though, as the Browns have one of the best defensive units in football. With how much the Ravens have struggled to generate offense this year, it will be on their defense and special teams to make game changing plays. I'm not feeling much conviction in my pick of the Ravens but am supremely confident this game will be boring.

Prediction: Baltimore 19, Cleveland 16

Pittsburgh (2-5) at New England (6-2), New England favored by 7

Much like the Falcons and Redskins this game may serve as the Steelers last chance to save their season. All the good will they had generated in winning back to back games went out the window after a disappointing loss at Oakland. Tom Brady is having a pedestrian season but the Patriots defense has been bailing him out, and New England is on pace for another double digit, AFC East winning season. However, the defense has had trouble stopping the run, which should excite Steelers rookie Le'Veon Bell. Despite the struggles of both teams offenses this season, I think we will see some scoring from both sides in this matchup. It might help the Patriots offense if Bill Belichick would just commit to Stevan Ridley as his running back instead of constantly shuffling in Brandon Bolden and LaGarrette Blount. Things might get even more complicated in their backfield in a few weeks with Shane Vereen set to return. Should be a back and forth game, but I trust the Patriots to execute late in crucial moments more than I do Pittsburgh.

Prediction: New England 31, Pittsburgh 26

Indianapolis (5-2) at Houston (2-5), Indianapolis favored by 2 1/2

Case Keenum is the Texans starter going forward and makes his home debut Sunday night. Houston's fall has been precipitous, as I truly thought this was a team that could go to the Super Bowl this season. Andrew Luck and the Colts offense stalled the last time they played on the road in prime time, and this game will be their third straight in prime time. In a week and a half they play on a Thursday night so America is going to be very familiar with Luck and the Colts. Both defenses are terrible against the run, but the Texans rank first in the league stopping the pass. Does their struggles against the run mean Trent Richardson will finally do something for the Colts? I would bet on Donald Brown to make an impact before I would Richardson. Should be a hard fought game, but trust Luck over Keenum.

Prediction: Indianapolis 24, Houston 21


Monday, November 4

Chicago (4-3) at Green Bay (5-2), Green Bay favored by 11

Even after a bye, the Bears come into Lambeau a wounded team. They will be starting Josh McCown at quarterback and will be without Lance Briggs and potentially Charles Tillman on defense, to go with their other various injuries on defense. The Packers an infirmary as well, as Clay Matthews will likely miss this game and James Jones remains questionable to return. Aaron Rodgers is making new stars out of guys like Jarrett Boykins though and the Packers offense hasn't missed a beat without Jermichael Finley or Randall Cobb. Given the opportunity to face a hurting and bad Bears defense, I expect another fantastic performance from Rodgers. Also, now that the Packers have a ground attack with Eddie Lacy and James Starks, they are becoming a team to really take seriously come playoff time. McCown came in and played well for Cutler against Washington, but I expect a more measured performance from McCown Monday night. For the Bears to win it will take a lot of luck and Matt Forte going off on the ground. Don't see either of those happening.

Prediction: Green Bay 27, Chicago 13


Last Week Against the Spread: 6-7
Overall Against the Spread: 61-55-4

Last Week Straight Up: 10-3
Overall Straight Up: 84-36

Cram Session - Week 10

Thursday, October 31

Cincinnati (6-2) at Miami (3-4), Cincinnati favored by 2 1/2

Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton was seen as the team's biggest question mark, despite leading them to the playoff in each of his first two seasons. However, this season he is one of the biggest reasons the Bengals are well in front of the AFC North and winners of four straight games. Against the Jets stingy defense last week, Dalton threw 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. He also helped to introduce the world to Marvin Jones, who caught four of those touchdowns. One area that the Bengals need to improve in is their running game, as both the Law Firm and Giovanni Bernard are averaging less than four yards per carry. The Dolphins 3-0 start is but a distant memory, as they blew a first half lead against New England last week to drop their fourth straight. Ryan Tannehill and Mike Wallace still can't spark any sort of chemistry with each other, and the offense has been inconsistent. Tannehill hasn't been good during the losing streak, and has been turning the ball over way too much. Tannehill needs to develop some chemistry with Wallace fast, especially now that he lost WR Brandon Gibson for the season. I would like Miami's chances better if this game was on Sunday and they had a full week to prepare for the Bengals. But on a short week, I think talent wins out over strategy and the Bengals are far more talented than the Dolphins.

Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Miami 20


Games That Matter To Me

Navy (4-3) at #25 Notre Dame (6-2)

After two discouraging losses on the road, Navy got back on the winning track at home against Pittsburgh last weekend. That means they will go into South Bend with some confidence and a quarterback/runner in Keenan Reynolds that could cause some headaches for the Irish defense. The Irish just faced Air Force last week so they should be pretty studied up on rushing oriented offenses. The most passes Reynolds has completed in a game is 10, but he has rushed for over 100 yards in 3 games. Reynolds does avoid mistakes and turnovers, and he will have to do that Saturday or things will get ugly for Navy like they did for Air Force.

Tommy Rees was exceptional against Air Force, throwing 5 touchdowns and not committing any turnovers. As I discussed last week, Rees can be frustrating to watch, but there isn't a doubt that he's the best the Irish have at quarterback right now. TJ Jones seems to be his favorite target and he had a huge game against Air Force. Jones is the latest in a line of Irish receivers that seem to be able to outjump the corner or safety and make leaping touchdown catches. The Irish run game was quiet again last week, but the blowout did allow them to give freshman Tarean Folston a look.

The Irish should be favored in their next three games and could be 9-2 heading into their showdown with Stanford to close the year. No one is mentioning a BCS bowl as a possibility but if they go 9-2 and then beat Stanford, I can't see one of the major bowls passing up on a 10-2 Irish team. They need to remain focused though and that begins this week with Navy. Navy cannot be taken lightly, especially because they treat Notre Dame as one of their biggest games of the year. I think Reynolds will make some plays early, but like last week the Irish defense will adjust and begin to stop him. I think Rees could be in line for another big game as well.

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Navy 21

Northwestern (4-4, 0-4) at Nebraska (5-2, 2-1)

Bo has gots to go. I fully expected the Minnesota game to be difficult, but no way should Nebraska lose by double digits to the Golden Gophers. Maybe someone can say he was smoking pot with his brother Carl. After the loss, Taylor Martinez said the the Huskers goals are still in front of them, and that is true, but the competition is going to get harder than the Gophers here in the last month. Martinez started last week after missing a few games, and he was adequate, but definitely didn't appear to be himself. He didn't rush for much yardage and combine that with a pedestrian passing attack and the Huskers were struggling on offense. Now news has come out that he suffered a hip pointer in the loss and Tommy Armstrong is once again the starter for Saturday. The Nebraska defense once again couldn't slow down a team's offense, this team getting run all over by the Gophers.

This week, they get to host a reeling Northwestern team. The Wildcats have dropped four straight, completely collapsing since giving Ohio State a tough game. Their quarterback situation seems up in the air. Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian had been mostly splitting time but Colter took all the snaps in last week's loss to Iowa. Colter did help the Wildcats beat the Huskers in Lincoln two years ago, mostly using his legs to his advantage, rushing for two touchdowns. Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald stuck with Colter last week because he was playing well, and I would assume he will start the game with Colter. Leading rusher Treyvon Green didn't play against Iowa last week and has been battling injuries. It remains to be seen if and how much he plays at Lincoln on Saturday. If he doesn't expect freshman Stephen Buckley to get the bulk of the carries, coming off a strong 99 yard performance against Iowa. The Wildcats best pass catcher is Tony Jones, but he has had a lot of quiet games this season.

The Wildcats don't have a very good defense, so there will be plays to be made by Armstrong and holes for RB Ameer Abdullah. Abdullah had another good performance last week, but it is obvious that for Nebraska to win Martinez has to be at least good and not simply average. The Wildcats offensive line isn't that strong of a unit, so the Huskers will have a chance to create some pressure and hopefully some turnovers. A loss to Northwestern will really intensify the calls for Pelini's job. Not only because it would be the second straight time losing to Northwestern at home, but because of how poorly the Wildcats have played the last month. I am going with the Huskers but not with any sort of confidence.

Prediction: Nebraska 27, Northwestern 20


Top 10

#7 Miami (7-0, 3-0) at #3 Florida State (7-0, 5-0)

Been a long time since this rivalry had a game as big as Saturday night's will be. Unfortunately, this is an instance where I don't believe the game will live up to the hype. That is because Miami is not even close to being in the same league as the Seminoles. One area that is a major mismatch is at quarterback. It's odd because the Seminoles have the advantage at that position with Jameis Winston over Miami's Stephen Morris, despite Morris being a senior and Winston being a freshman. Morris had as many interceptions in the Canes victory against Carolina a few weeks ago, four, that Winston has so far this entire season.

The Canes only chance in this game will be their defense or special teams scoring points and RB Duke Johnson having one of the best games of his career. Duke is coming off an impressive 30 carry, 168 yard rushing performance against Wake Forest, including scoring the winning touchdown in the final minute. However, at wide receiver the Canes don't have a game changing player like the Seminoles Rashad Greene. The junior has already set a career high for touchdowns and is averaging 8 catches and 141 yards receiving in his last two games. While Miami was clawing out a victory against Wake, the Seminoles were resting their players for much of the second half after killing NC State in the first half.

The Canes are 11th in scoring defense but that stat is a bit misleading. The last three weeks they have let mediocre ACC opponents roll up yards on them. It has to be troubling for Miami fans to know their team has played so poorly against bad teams, and now has to face one of the best teams in the country. If this game was in Miami, I might give the Canes a prayer of keeping it closer, but under the lights in Tallahassee I expect this game to get ugly early. No team has shown any ability of slowing down Jameis Winston, so I expect another dazzling performance from him, as he inches closer and closer to a Heisman trophy.

Prediction: Florida State 38, Miami 16

#4 Ohio State (8-0, 4-0) at Purdue (1-6, 0-3)

The Buckeyes season comes down to November 30th when they travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan. These next 3 games at Purdue, at Illinois, and home to Indiana are simply dress rehearsals. The Buckeyes goal in these games is to win and win by a lot to try to help their perception and move up in the polls. They also want to stay healthy. The awful Boilermakers give the Buckeyes a chance for a blowout victory. Anything less than a win by three or four touchdowns will be looked down upon by the pollsters.

Prediction: Ohio State 49, Purdue 14

#8 Clemson (7-1, 5-1) at Virginia (2-6, 0-4)

Clemson struggled to put away a highly depleted Maryland team last week and is beginning to look more and more fraudtastic with each passing game. That being said the Virginia Cavaliers are one of the worst teams in college football, so maybe Clemson can use them as a way to possibly get back on track.

Prediction: Clemson 42, Virginia 17

Tennessee (4-4, 1-3) at #9 Missouri (7-1, 3-1)

The Missouri Tigers look poised to cap off an amazing three week stretch of wins against Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina. They led the Gamecocks 17-0 going into the fourth quarter, but then Connor Shaw was inserted at quarterback and the game completely changed. Missouri ended up losing 27-24 in 2 OT after missing a 24-yard field goal. Now they have to try to recover from that crushing defeat and avoid a letdown against Tennessee. A once proud program, Tennessee has lost 18 straight games on the road to ranked foes, including a blowout loss at Alabama last weekend. After a strong performance against the Gators, Tigers freshman quarterback Maty Mauk came back to Earth against South Carolina. He was able to complete just 40 percent of his passes. RB Henry Josey has to have a better game if Mauk struggles again. I don't think this will be easy game for the Tigers but they still have plenty to play for.

Prediction: Missouri 31, Tennessee 24

Last Week: 10-2
Overall: 78-12

The Hail Mary - Week 8

Sunday, October 27

San Francisco (5-2) "at" Jacksonville (0-7),  in London, England, San Francisco favored by 16 1/2

The 49ers are headed back to jolly old England, where three years ago they knocked off the Denver Broncos. Things expect to be considerably easier this time as they face the worst team in football, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kinda funny that it worked out that three of the four teams picked to play in London this year entered the game winless. The only way I could see this being a close game is if the 49ers somehow suffer from jet lag despite being in London since Monday. Frank Gore has been the 49ers bell cow after a slow start to the season and now he gets to face the worst rush defense in football. It would be nice if Colin Kaepernick could have a big day passing the football, especially since another of his weapons, Mario Manningham is closer to returning to action. The 49ers defense should make lifer miserable for Chad Henne and I expect them to be able to get a lot of pressure on him. Maurice Jones-Drew is a shell of his former self so he doesn't worry me all that much. The Niners just need to get out of London healthy and keep pace with the Seahawks in the NFC West.

Prediction: San Francisco 34, Jacksonville 13

Miami (3-3) at New England (5-2), New England favored by 7

Both the Dolphins and the Patriots are looking to bounce back from disappointing division losses last week. The Dolphins couldn't beat a Bills team starting a quarterback that was on their practice squad three weeks ago and have now lost three in a row. The Patriots finally had Rob Gronkowski back and he made an immediate impact but it still wasn't enough to beat the Jets. Ryan Tannehill had 3 TDs last week but also threw costly interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown. Traveling to New England is not ideal for a team that desperately needs a win to get back on track. Tom Brady could have Danny Amendola back for this game and would finally have the receiving corps he anticipated before the season started. The Patriots defense started to show some signs of their injuries as Chris Ivory ran for over 100 yards against them. The Dolphins haven't shown an ability to consistently run the ball, and I don't think Tannehill is at a point where he can win a tough game like this on the road without a lot of help.

Prediction: New England 28, Miami 20

New York Giants (1-6) at Philadelphia (3-4), Philadelphia favored by 6

The Giants finally got off the schneid, beating the Minnesota Vikings in perhaps the most unimpressive victory in NFL history. The Eagles are coming off their worst offensive game of the season, where Nick Foles was kind enough to make it clear that Michael Vick is a much better quarterback than him. Vick is expected to start on Sunday, and hopefully this time he will be able to finish a game against the New York Giants. The Eagles loss to Dallas last week was their ninth straight home loss, an unbelievable streak. The Giants felt due for a win last week, and the Eagles feel due for a home win this week. The Giants may once again have to start Peyton Hillis at running back, meaning another game of averaging 2 yards per carry is likely to happen. Eli Manning managed to not throw an interception last weekend so that means he is due for at least one or two against Philly.

Prediction: Philadelphia 27, New York Giants 23

Dallas (4-3) at Detroit (4-3), Detroit favored by 3

A silly back and forth has been going on about whether or not Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant said he was as good as Lions receiver Calvin Johnson. That makes for some good copy leading up to the game but won't mean a thing once the game starts. The Dallas defense was very impressive in shutting down the Eagles high powered offense this week, and faces another tough offense in the Lions. Both teams have pass defenses that rank towards the bottom of the league, so this game has the potential for a lot of fireworks. In the end with both teams about even, I'll lean towards home field and take the Lions.

Prediction: Detroit 28, Dallas 24

Cleveland (3-4) at Kansas City (7-0), Kansas City favored by 7

The Browns are turning to their third quarterback this season, former Redskin Jason Campbell. Campbell is pretty much terrible at this stage of his career, and he gets to face the best defense in football in the Chiefs. Texans quarterback Case Keenum actually did alright versus the Chiefs defense but was eventually overwhelmed by the pressure of their pass rushers. The Chiefs schedule is so easy this year, that I don't feel like we will get a real read on them until they play the Broncos at Denver on November 17th.

Prediction: Kansas City 24, Cleveland 10

Buffalo (3-4) at New Orleans (5-1), New Orleans favored by 12 1/2

Little known fact about the Bills, they are the only team in the NFL besides the Denver Broncos to score at least 20 points in every game so far this season. They have done this despite having to start Thad Lewis the last two weeks. Lewis has acquitted himself pretty well for a guy that started the year on the practice squad. The Saints are playing their first game in two weeks, and most likely used the bye to get the bad taste out of their mouths following the last second loss to the Patriots. The Bills defense ranks towards the bottom of the league against both the run and pass, so Drew Brees has got to be licking his chops. The Bills best chance is if Mario Williams can continue to wreak havoc as he done so successfully this season.

Prediction: New Orleans 34, Buffalo 23

New York Jets (4-3) at Cincinnati (5-2), Cincinnati favored by 6 1/2

Everytime I am ready to bury the New York Jets they pull another win out of their asses. I don't think anyone saw them beating the Patriots coming, especially once they got down 21-10. Rex Ryan is a very good coach, because the talent or lack thereof on the offense is staggering, yet the Jets are very competitive. This should be more of a defensive than offensive battle as both teams have defenses that can slow the opposing teams run and pass games very well. Geno Smith has struggled with turnovers in some road games, and while it is nice for him that Leon Hall is out for the year, the Bengals still have plenty of guys that can force Smith into bad decisions.

Prediction: Cincinnati 28, New York Jets 14

Pittsburgh (2-4) at Oakland (2-4), Pittsburgh favored by 3

The Steelers return from the dead has a good chance of continuing as they travel to Oakland on Sunday. However, Big Ben still probably has nightmares from his most recent trips to Oakland, both which resulted in losses. The Steelers recent success can be tied to their running game finally starting to come alive, led by Le'Veon Bell. The Steelers have had problems of their own stopping the run, so Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden could be key factors in the game. In fact, the Raiders defense as a whole has been surprisingly pretty good. I think Big Ben has to win in Oakland at some point and he will break the hex on Sunday as the Steelers win their third straight.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Oakland 22

Washington (2-4) at Denver (6-1), Denver favored by 13

Mike Shanahan makes his first return trip to Denver where he won two Super Bowls and built a reputation that he lives on to this day. The Redskins offense saved the day and their season last Sunday. Robert Griffin III looked like the RG3 of 2012 and Roy Helu looked like he was back at Nebraska ripping off touchdown after touchdown. The defense scored another touchdown but also gave up points in bunches and that has Redskins fans fearful of what Peyton Manning might do to them this Sunday. Making matters worse, the Redskins will be without head hunter Brandon Merriweather at safety. Although, let's be honest, Skins are more used to him not playing than actually being on the field. His absence means we will probably get to see Bacarri Rambo's corpse resurrected so he can get burned a few times. The Broncos should be extra focused this week after a disappointing performance last weekend in Indianapolis. The Skins should be able to keep this competitive because the offense seems back on track. They also should be able to get at least some pressure on Manning with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan. But still, the Broncos just have too many weapons for the Skins defense, and plus, with the game being in Denver, the Skins have no shot.

Prediction: Denver 42, Washington 31

Atlanta (2-4) at Arizona (3-4), Arizona favored by 2 1/2

The Falcons and Matt Ryan made it known that they aren't ready to be buried yet. Despite injuries to his top two receivers, Ryan had an outstanding game against the Buccaneers, turning Harry Douglas into a fantasy football star. The Cardinals have dropped two in a row and Carson Palmer has been a turnover machine this season, throwing 13 interceptions. He was expected to bring the Cardinals passing attack alive but instead they rank 17th in the league. They also can't run the ball with any sort of success, once again putting way too much pressure on their defense. The Falcons think they will have Steven Jackson back in this game, some good news for a team in desperate need of some. For the Falcons to keep alive Wild Card hopes, this is a must win game on the road.

Prediction: Atlanta 30, Arizona 23

Green Bay (4-2) at Minnesota (1-5), Green Bay favored by 10

As the quarterbacks turn continues in Minnesota as it appears that Christian Ponder will get back his starting job due to Josh Freeman suffering a concussion in the loss to the Giants. Maybe that explains why Freeman was so horrible and off throwing the ball last Monday night. I understand being new to an offense, but that doesn't explain throwing the ball well over your receivers heads and out of bounds all the time. It almost seemed like the Vikings were simply having Freeman throw a ton as a sort of try out, as they hardly tried to use Adrian Peterson. Peterson could find it tough sledding against the Packers as they rank third in the league against the run. Ponder did have the best game of his career at home against Green Bay last season, and former Packer Greg Jennings will be looking to make an impact. On the offensive side of the ball for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers lost another receiver, this time tight end Jermichael Finley. Rodgers didn't really miss a step though against Cleveland last week, throwing for 260 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is being helped by the emergence of Eddie Lacy, who is giving Green Bay their first consistent threat at running back since the Ryan Grant era. The Vikings have yet to win a game at the Metrodome this season and were embarrassed by the Panthers last time they played here. Not exactly closing down the dome in style.

Prediction: Green Bay 28, Minnesota 17


Monday, October 28

Seattle (6-1) at St. Louis (3-4), Seattle favored by 11

Rams fans are going to learn to be careful what they wish for. All those Rams fans that were tiring of Sam Bradford, despite him having 14 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions, now get to watch Kellen Clemens quarterback their team. That's because Bradford tore his ACL against the Panthers and is now out for the season. The Rams already were without a running game, now they will more than likely be without a passing game. Even worse for them, they are hosting the best team in the NFC right now, the Seahawks. Seattle's defense is going to make life miserable for Clemens on Monday night, and the Rams defense hasn't shown the ability to stop anyone on a consistent basis. Ranking 30th against the run, the Rams should have no problem allowing Marshawn Lynch to enter beast mode.

Prediction: Seattle 27, St. Louis 9


Last Week Against the Spread: 9-6
Overall Against the Spread: 55-48-4

Last Week Straight Up: 11-4
Overall Straight Up: 74-33