The Alley-Oop

Saturday, February 23

William & Mary (12-14, 6-9) at George Mason (16-11, 9-6)

 
Prediction: George Mason 65, William & Mary 64

NC State (19-7, 8-5) at North Carolina (18-8, 8-5)


Prediction: North Carolina 75, NC State 68


Top 10

Saturday, February 23

#2 Miami (22-3, 13-0) at Wake Forest (11-14, 4-9)


Prediction: Miami 57, Wake Forest 53

San Diego (13-15, 6-7) at #3 Gonzaga (26-2, 13-0)


Prediction: Gonzaga 78, San Diego 64

Arkansas (17-9, 8-5) at #5 Florida (21-4, 11-2)


Prediction: Florida 84, Arkansas 63

#11 Georgetown (20-4, 10-3) at #8 Syracuse (22-4, 10-3)


Prediction: Syracuse 67, Georgetown 65

TCU (10-16, 1-12) at #9 Kansas (22-4, 10-3)


Prediction: Kansas 90, TCU 58

Seton Hall (13-14, 2-12) at #10 Louisville (21-5, 9-4)


Prediction: Louisville 76, Seton Hall 64


Sunday, February 24

#4 Michigan State (22-5, 11-3) at #18 Ohio State (19-7, 9-5)


Prediction: Michigan State 63, Ohio State 61

Boston College (12-14, 4-9) at #6 Duke (23-3, 10-3)


Prediction: Duke 70,  Boston College 57

Illinois (20-8, 7-7) at #7 Michigan (22-4, 9-4)



Prediction: Michigan 68, Illinois 63


Last Week: 10-2
Overall: 16-6

The Alley-Oop

Pretty terrible slate of games in the Top 10 this weekend. However, that being said, this has been one of the most upset filled seasons I can remember, so it may turn out to be interesting. For George Mason, Saturday is Homecoming and I was lucky enough to score free tickets to the game, that should have me just a few rows away from the action. North Carolina will be looking for revenge against Virginia, and badly needs a quality win.



Saturday, February 16

Georgia State (13-14, 8-6) at George Mason (15-10)

An odd season for the Patriots continued last night, as they came from behind to defeat Drexel on the road. In years past, even when Mason had pretty good teams, those teams would struggle on the road, but were always dominant at home. This season, a mediocre Mason team hasn't been that great at home, but has played most of their best games on the road. They hope to put forth a strong home performance for Homecoming on Saturday against Georgia State.

Athletic guards have given Mason problems this year, so it could be a long day trying to guard the Panthers R.J. Hunter. Hunter has struggled with his shot in his last two games, shooting a combined 6 for 26. But he is also capable of exploding, like he did for 38 points against Old Dominion. The Panthers other dangerous guard is Devonta White. White has scored in double figures in every game this season but one. The transfer from Virginia Tech, Manny Atkins, is the Panthers leading rebounder and third leading scorer. The Panthers have no shortage of offensive firepower, so Mason will have to play some excellent defense.

The Patriots leading scorer Sherrod Wright has looked a little off in his last three games, and I think for Mason to win Saturday he will have to get back on track. Obviously, he will need some help, but Mason will need his firepower to keep up with the Panthers guards. It would also be nice if Eric Copes can continue his strong play, and limit the effectiveness of Atkins on the boards.

You never know which Mason team you will get from game to game, but hopefully a packed house for Homecoming will have the team mentally prepared and ready to put forth the performance necessary to earn a victory.

Prediction: George Mason 67, Georgia State 62

Virginia (18-6, 8-3) at North Carolina (16-8, 6-5)

The Heels have dropped their last two games, and now have to face a red hot Virginia team. The Cavaliers beat UNC in Charlottesville to start the ACC schedule, and have won seven of their last eight games. The catalyst for their strong player has been guard Joe Harris. Harris has gone for over 20 points in four of his last five games. For Carolina, James Michael McAdoo has not looked good in the last two games and needs to play much better on Saturday. His shoot has looked off and his dreadful free throw shooting really cost the Heels against Duke.

Carolina had their worst offensive performance of the season against Virginia, mostly because only Reggie Bullock bothered to show up. Point guard Marcus Paige had a terrible game, but has improved since then. He will have to find guys like Bullock, Dexter Strickland, and P.J. Hairston when they are open, and let everyone get into the flow of the offense.

While Virginia has been winning as of late, they have some really bad losses, so they can't rest on their laurels if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. Both of these teams will be desperate and this game should have a postseason level of intensity to it. It will really come down to whether or not the Heels can get their offense flowing, and defensively, not allow anyone else besides Harris to take over.

Prediction: North Carolina 61, Virginia 58


Top 10

Saturday, February 16

Purdue (12-13, 5-7) at #1 Indiana (22-3, 10-2)

Indiana still appears to be the favorite come March to cut down the nets. They recovered from the tough loss at Illinois, by earning an impressive road win at Ohio State. This is their second time playing Purdue this season, a team they beat by 37 on the road earlier this year. This will be a chance for some subs to get some garbage time minutes.

Prediction: Indiana 82, Purdue 64

#2 Duke (22-2, 9-2) at Maryland (17-7, 5-6)

Not many of these battles left with Maryland bolting for the Big Ten in 2014-2015. This is a huge game for the Terps, as a loss will basically mean that they have to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA's. Duke seems ripe for an upset, they barely survived at Boston College last weekend, and struggled for most of their win against North Carolina. Terps big man Alex Len has to have a big game, especially with Ryan Kelly absent. Len was too much of a non-factor in their meeting in Durham earlier this season. The Terps will also have to find a way to contain Duke guard Rasheed Sulaimon, who torched them for 25 points. Seems like a tall task, but Duke isn't as strong away from Cameron, and I think the desperate team will come out ahead.

Prediction: Maryland 66, Duke 64

#5 Gonzaga (24-2, 11-0) at San Francisco (11-14, 4-8)

Gonzaga had a statement win last night, thrashing St. Mary's on the road in the second half. They are basically biding their time until the NCAA Tournament starts. It is looking more and more like they may be a real factor in March.

Prediction: Gonzaga 72, San Francisco 57

#6 Syracuse (20-4, 8-3) at Seton Hall (13-12, 2-10)

The Orange are looking to bounce back after falling at UCONN earlier this week. For Seton Hall to have a chance at the upset, star player Fuquan Edwin will have to get some help. However, the Pirates have dropped six straight, so Syracuse shouldn't have much trouble.

Prediction: Syracuse 68, Seton Hall 58

#7 Florida (20-3, 10-1) at Auburn (9-15, 3-8)

The Gators put away any question who the class of the SEC was this year, with a home thrashing of Kentucky. At this point they are playing for seeding and hoping to try to move up to a number one seed. Their smallest margin of victory in all their SEC wins this year, is 14 points. That is incredible.

Prediction: Florida 75, Auburn 55

#8 Michigan State (21-4, 10-2) at Nebraska (12-13, 3-9)

The Spartans are feeling pretty good about themselves after their demolition of Michigan on Tuesday. Because of that, I think they are due for a letdown in this game in Lincoln and will have more trouble with the Huskers than people think. While they might struggle, G Keith Appling will make sure they walk away with the victory.

Prediction: Michigan State 65, Nebraska 59

Baylor (16-8, 7-4) at #10 Kansas State (19-5, 8-3)

These teams head into this game in opposite directions. Kansas State didn't bother showing up for their rivalry game at Kansas. Baylor has looked dominant in their last two wins, although those both came at home against poor opposition. Pierre Jackson is a terrific point guard for Baylor, while Rodney McGruder serves as the Wildcats mister everything. I expect this to be a close, exciting game.

Prediction: Kansas State 71, Baylor 70


Sunday, February 17

#3 Miami (20-3, 11-0) at Clemson (13-11, 5-7)

Miami just keeps on winning in the ACC, and if all goes according to plan, they should still be undefeated in conference when they take on Duke on March 2 at Cameron. They better not get caught looking that far ahead, as Clemson is a tough team to beat in Littlejohn Coliseum. The Tigers Devin Booker will be clanging and banging with the Canes Reggie Johnson. Miami has won three of their last four road games by single digits and I think they are due for an upset loss at some point.

Prediction: Clemson 67, Miami 65

Penn State (8-16, 0-12) at #4 Michigan (21-4, 8-4)

Poor Penn State will be the sacrificial lamb for the Wolverines to take out all their frustrations from their embarrassing loss at Michigan State, and heartbreaking loss at Wisconsin.

Prediction: Michigan 83, Penn State 58

#9 Arizona (20-4, 8-4) at Utah (11-13, 3-9)

The Wildcats have played very poorly their last two games, and were pushed around by Cal last night. The Utes could prove to be the cure to their woes, although they are coming off a nice home win against Arizona State.

Prediction: Arizona 75, Utah 69


Last Week: 6-4
Overall: 6-4

The Alley-Oop

College basketball is a sport that doesn't always get the attention and respect it should. Sure in March, every Joe schmoe starts caring becauase they want to win their bracket pool, but only real diehards tend to follow the regular season. Us diehards have been rewarded this year with one of the most topsy turvy seasons in history. Last night made it the fifth straight week the number one team in the country lost, as Indiana blew a late late at Illinois. The man pictured to the right, Cody Zeller, got caught napping on an inbound pass, and the Illini converted a layup as time expired. For those of you that are new to the site, each Friday I will pick my alma mater George Mason's game, my other favorite North Carolina's game, and the Top 10 action for the weekend. Let's get to it.



Saturday, February 9

Delaware (11-12, 6-4) at George Mason (14-9, 7-4)

It has been a frustrating season for George Mason fans. With VCU moving on to the Atlantic-10 and preseason conference favorites Drexel and Delaware struggling, Mason fans assumed that the team would shoot to the top of the standings. Instead, they currently sit in fourth place, behind teams like James Madison and Towson. Mason is a team with just one senior, and he never plays, so it is expected that there will be some inconsistency. That is why at points, Mason looks tremendous, like they did for 39 minutes against New Mexico early in the season, and other times, where they will look awful, like when they blew a 20 point lead at home to Drexel. A major problem has been trying to find a consistent scoring threat besides G Sherrod Wright.  However, in the last three games, F Jonathan Arledge has begun to emerge. If he can continue his growth, then Mason has a chance to make a run against a depleted CAA Tournament field. It is almost ridiculous how much the team relies on Wright, who as a guard is also the team's leading rebounder.

Delaware has been up and down all season. Early in the season they lost five straight, then recently won five straight, followed that up with a three game losing streak, then won three in a row, and were then soundly defeated by Towson in their last game. Where they have found consistency is in the play of G Devon Saddler and F Jamelle Hagins. Mason has struggled defensively against electric guards this season, so Saddler could be in for a huge game. Hagins also could potentially dominate on the boards, as he averaged over 10 rebounds per game. It will be Arledge's job to try to not let Hagins give the Blue Hens multiple shot opportunities.

The Patriot Center hasn't been the house of horrors for opposing teams this season as it normally is. The last home game for Mason was the aforementioned loss to Drexel. Although Mason is in fourth place, they would have the three seed right now as Towson is ineligible for this season's conference tournament. A win would put them ahead of James Madison based on tiebreaker and into the second seed. The question is, can Mason play a consistent brand of basketball for 40 minutes? You never know what team will show up, so predicting their games is very difficult. I will choose to be optimistic and believe that Mason will defeat Delaware, but make it nail biting as usual.

Prediction: George Mason 71, Delaware 67


Top 10

Saturday, February 9

Mississippi State (7-14, 2-7) at #2 Florida (18-3, 8-1)

The Gators had been steamrolling the SEC but then were steamrolled themselves by Arkansas on Tuesday night. That's bad news for Mississippi State, who is completely dreadful, and already lost earlier this year to Florida by 35 points. Expect seniors Kenny Boynton and Erik Murphy (no, not the guy from Entourage) to have big games.

Prediction: Florida 85, Mississippi State 59

#3 Michigan (21-2, 8-2) at Wisconsin (16-7, 7-3)

With both Indiana and Florida losing this week, the Wolverines could find themselves right back at number one with a victory at Wisconsin. Winning in Madison is no easy task but I feel that the Wolverines have too many offensive weapons for the offensively challenged Badgers to match their scoring. Guard Trey Burke is one of the best players in the country and along with Tim Hardaway Jr. makes up the best backcourt in the nation.
 
Prediction: Michigan 71, Wisconsin 64

#5 Kansas (19-3, 7-2) at Oklahoma (14-7, 5-4) 

The Jayhawks are desperate for a win following an embarrassing loss at TCU on Wednesday night. You have to think that Bill Self is kicking their ass in practice these last few days, and I would be stunned if the Jayhawks don't come out and play inspired ball.

Prediction: Kansas 74, Oklahoma 63

Loyola Marymount (8-15, 1-9) at #6 Gonzaga (22-2, 9-0)

Waiting for the day that the Zags will join a real conference. People are hyping up Gonzaga but hard to believe that this season will be any different than the others. They will beat up on the WCC, then flame out early on in the NCAA Tournament when matched with legit competition.

Prediction: Gonzaga 81, Loyola Marymount 60

North Carolina (16-6, 6-3) at #8 Miami (18-3, 9-0)

It was hard to know what to expect from the Tar Heels this season. They had a mass exodus of talent to the NBA, but Roy Williams strong recruiting meant they still had enough talent to compete this season. They have been unable to land a signature win this season, but they get their chance Saturday against the biggest surprise of the season, the Jim Larranaga led Miami Hurricanes.

F James Michael McAdoo has made the leap into the Tar Heels best player that many expected he would. He is terrible at the free thow line and turns the ball over a bit too much, but other than that is exceptional in every other phase of the game. Another player who has stepped his game up is Reggie Bullock. Bullock is shooting 47% and is a lethal 44% from three point range. He and McAdoo are also the team's leading rebounders. Freshman guard Marcus Paige hasn't made anyone forget Kendall Marshall, but also hasn't brought back nightmares of Larry Drew II. He is going through some growing pains, but the flashes are there. Dexter Strickland remains a tough, gritty defensive player, who can provide you some extra offense on occasion.

Paige will have his work cut out for him Saturday, when he tries to guard Shane Larkin. He did a nice job against Larkin the first time these teams played, holding him to just one assist. It was F-C Kenny Kadji who dominated the Heels in Chapel Hill, as he poured in 18 points. The Heels also let Julian Gamble go off on them for 14 points, and Gamble only averages 6 on the season. C Reggie Johnson will play in this game, which will make winning even more difficult for Carolina. Johnson missed the first game, and his presence makes the Hurricanes absolutely dominating on the glass.

I keep thinking the Hurricanes have to lose at some point, and the Heels have to get a signature win at some point, to restore balance to the ACC. I think that Carolina can complete and not have their doors blown off like they did at NC State earlier this season. I just think when it comes to crunch time, the veteran presence that the Canes have will overcome the youth of Carolina.

Prediction: Miami 75, North Carolina 72


Sunday, February 10

#1 Indiana (20-3, 8-2) at #10 Ohio State (17-5, 7-3)

No time to rest for shell shocked Indiana, who has to follow their stunning loss at Illinois, with a very difficult game at Columbus. Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo lead the Hoosiers in scoring, as they feature one of the best offensive attacks in the country. The Buckeyes are not as proficient on offense, but make up for it with stifling defense. Deshaun Thomas is their do everything player. A guy who can score, rebound, passes well, and plays great defense. He is also from Indiana, so his success probably burns Hoosiers fans a bit more than it normally would. I picked Indiana to win this game before their loss last night, and despite that, I am sticking with them. I believe this team is too good to drop back to back games. The atmosphere will be intimidating, but it comes down to matchups and talent, areas the Hoosiers have an advantage over the Buckeyes in.

Prediction: Indiana 78, Ohio State 73

#4 Duke (20-2, 7-2) at Boston College (10-12, 2-7)

At least this game isn't in Durham, so we won't have to hear any chants mocking a player's recently deceased grandmother. A typical Duke season of doing well in the regular season, but will likely end with them flaming out early on as a 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The biggest revelation this season has been how important Ryan Kelly is to the Blue Devils success. No one knew that he was the second coming of Rik Smits.

Prediction: Duke 68,  Boston College 58

California (13-9, 5-5) at #7 Arizona (20-2, 8-2)

The Wildcats haven't drawn a ton of national attention but they should be a team to be reckoned with in March. G Mark Lyons and F Solomon Hill give them a lethal inside out combination, and Lyons followed coach Sean Miller from Xavier to Arizona. There were questions about how well he would mesh with Arizona, but he has answered those resoundingly. He is coming off one of his best games of the season, a dominating performance against Stanford.

Prediction: Arizona 77, California 69

St. John's (15-8, 7-4) at #9 Syracuse (19-3, 7-2)

This could be the last time these two rivals play each other for a while, as Syracuse moves on to the ACC next season. St. John's is squarely on the bubble but has mostly feasted on the weak parts of the Big East. If they are to make the NCAA Tournament they will have to earn it, as five of their last seven games are against ranked teams. They have a tremendous, young nucleus in sophomore guard D'Angelo Harris and freshman forward Jakarr Sampson. Cuse coach Jim Boeheim continues to keep the Orange at the top of the rankings year after year, despite consistently losing talent early to the NBA. Brandon Triche and C.J. Fair have seen increased minutes this year and rose to the challenge by upping their contributions. This should be a good, old fashioned Big East slugfest, something that will be missed.

Prediction: Syracuse 63, St. John's 56

The Hail Mary - Super Bowl XLVII

Super Bowl XLVII: #4 Baltimore Ravens (13-6) vs. #2 San Francisco 49ers (13-4-1) in New Orleans, Louisiana, San Francisco favored by 3 1/2

The Super Bowl brings in millions of casual fans, that will probably be watching their first football game of the season. For people not interested in matchups, or which team has the better offense or defense, there is still plenty to become invested in with this game. You have Ravens LB Ray Lewis, playing in the last game of his career, trying to go out a champion, and win a lifetime supply of deer antler spray. For the 49ers, you have QB Colin Kaepernick, making just his 10th career start, playing for a championship. You will also probably see plenty of shots of former starter, Alex Smith, looking forlorn on the sideline, as the team excels without him. But most of all, you have the Harbowl. Brothers Jim and John, coach of the 49ers and Ravens respectively, facing off in the biggest game either has coached in their lives. Then you have the stories that have led up to this game during the week. Deer antler spray and whether or not Lewis took a banned substance. 49ers CB Chris Culliver's homophobic remarks, that put the the 49ers into crisis control mode. These stories all add layers of interest to the game, but they mean nothing once the game starts. Football, like any other sport, comes down to matchups.

On paper, the Ravens are a team that doesn't really stand out. In the regular season, they ranked in the teens in both passing and rushing offense. Their defense, long a stalwart of the franchise, was beset by injuries and old age and ranked just 17th against the pass and 20th against the run. This all seemed to catch up with them late in the season, when they lost four of their final five games and backed into the playoffs. But after a sloppy Wild Card win at home against Indianapolis, a flip seemed to switch and the Ravens became the best team in the AFC. They took out #2 seed Denver quarterbacked by Peyton Manning, and #1 seed New England quarterbacked by Tom Brady on the road. Against Denver, their defense allowed just 21 points, and forced Manning into an interception that ended up costing Denver the game. Against the Patriots, the Ravens dominated New England in the second half, and once again the defense was there to make stops and force turnovers. Having Terrell Suggs, Lewis, Haloti Ngata healthy, to play alongside Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard is the biggest reason we have seen improvement from the Ravens defense in the postseason. They have also been successful in getting pressure on the quarterback, leading playoff teams with 6 sacks this postseason. The MVP of the postseason thus far for Baltimore, has been QB Joe Flacco. Flacco has thrown 8 touchdowns and zero interceptions in three games. He has done a tremendous job of evading any pressure, and his retooled offensive line has also done a good job of protecting him. Bryant McKinnie, Michael Oher and Marshal Yanda are the players to watch on the Ravens offensive line. It will be their job to control the 49ers defensive front and linebackers. For years, people have believed the Ravens offense should run through Ray Rice, and it is tough to argue with him. Rice is a threat both running and catching the ball. His fellow running back, Bernard Pierce doesn't get much press, but has actually led the Ravens in rushing in two of their three playoff games. The Ravens receivers are underrated but dangerous. Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones are both speedsters and guys that Flacco likes to target deep. Anquan Boldin is his mister reliable, and someone that can make and out-muscle corners for almost any catch. TE Dennis Pitta has emerged as another reliable and dangerous target for Flacco. The 49ers have struggled at times to contain tight ends, so Pitta is definitely someone to watch. The Ravens special teams has struggled in coverage at times, but they are dangerous on their own with Jacoby Jones. Punter Sam Koch has had a career year averaging 47.1 yards a punt. Kicker Justin Tucker has been money all season and gives the Ravens a definite advantage at that position.

The 49ers have had a transformation themselves since turning over the keys to Kaepernick. Under Smith, they were a team that won games on the back of their defense, while the offense's job was to not screw up and run the ball. Since Kap has taken over, and in the postseason particularly, the Niners have been winning games because of their offense. The Niners defense has given up an average of 27.5 points in the two playoff games, but the offense has averaged 36.5 points. The defense has struggled in four of the last five games, giving up 34, 42, 13, 31, and 24 points in those games. The run defense has been mostly strong, but the pass defense has really struggled. Carlos Rogers, Culliver, Tarell Brown will have to step up their games on Sunday. They have been beaten physically, especially by Julio Jones in the NFC Championship, something that hadn't been done to this defense in a while. They will also need to be on the same page as safeties Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson. There have been some communication breakdowns during this poor run that have led to disastrous results. The Niners also need to find ways to get more pressure on the quarterback. Matt Ryan was torching them in the first half and had all day to throw. In the second half, the 49ers threw some blitzes at him and made things uncomfortable. Justin Smith is not at 100% and needs help from guys like Ray McDonald, Ricky Jean Francois, and Isaac Sopoaga. The player most affected by Smith's injury has been LB Aldon Smith. Aldon has gone five games without a sack after coming close to breaking Michael Strahan's single season record. He needs to bust out on Sunday, and also hopefully fellow LBs Novarro Bowman, Patrick Willis, and Ahmad Brooks can add to the pressure. Willis and Bowman will also be needed in coverage against Pitta, and watching Rice out of the backfield. Kap needs to just keep doing what he is doing. Leave teams guessing on the read option and continue to throw the ball accurately and forcefully. Frank Gore has been tremendous all season long, while LaMichael James, has provided speed and a spark since becoming active. Big game moments are when Randy Moss still makes his presence felt, and him being on the field has opened things up for Michael Crabtree. The biggest bright spot in the win over Atlanta, was the reemergence of Vernon Davis. Davis gave the 49ers and Kap a third option at receiver. I expect the Ravens to gameplan hard on him, so hopefully that means more opportunities for Moss and Crabtree. The 49ers offensive line has been one of the best all year long. Kap has made their lives easier, with his ability to take off and run, whereas Smith would hold the ball forever. Joe Staley has been playing hurt but you wouldn't know it based on his performances. Anthony Davis, Jonathan Goodwin, and Mike Iupati have been consistent all season and are the least of the 49ers worries going into Sunday's game. The 49ers special teams could be a major factor in this game. Ted Ginn might be able to break off a return or two against a weak Ravens special teams. Punter Andy Lee is consistently good, but the biggest question is kicker David Akers. Akers is kicking with zero confidence, and the 49ers may constantly have to think of Ravens territory as four down territory.

My biggest fear is the 49ers will start slowly and get behind. They have trailed in each of their playoff wins but they haven't face a team as physical as Baltimore in those games. The Ravens feeds off punching guys in the mouth, so I am hoping the Niners can exert their own hard hitting, toughness early on and set the tone. The defensive line has to make life difficult for Flacco or he will pick apart the Niners secondary. I am confident the defense will limit the effectiveness of Rice and Pierce, so it really comes down to limiting Flacco's opportunities to make plays. I think Kap might come out a little overwhelmed to start, similar to how he has looked in the opening of both playoff games. But he has shown, that he will settle down, start making his reads, and can take over a game. The Ravens defense shut down the Patriots passing game, but the 49ers read option is an extra dimension New England doesn't have. The Ravens saw something similar this year with Robert Griffin III and the Redskins, but the 49ers aren't as reliant on it as Washington is. It is important that Gore's presence is established immediately, and that offensive coordinator Greg Roman is committed to the run game. Crabtree, Moss, and Vernon Davis have to be ready to be hit and can't shy away from it. I pray that this game doesn't come down to Akers having to make a kick, as I don't even trust him to hit a 19 yard field goal at this point. Whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game. It's cliche as hell but with how evenly matched these teams are, it will likely be the difference. Besides that one slip up against Green Bay, Kap has been excellent protecting the ball. The 49ers can't afford a botched pitch or anything like that. Flacco has got to be due for an interception at some point, and I think he will give the Niners one in this game. This will be another close Super Bowl and is really a toss up. I don't think a team will win because the other team played terrible. I believe we will see a well played game, that comes down to the team with the ball last winning. I predict that team will be the 49ers, and Kaepernick will finish his dream season off with a win and the MVP trophy.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, Baltimore 20

Last Week Against the Spread: 1-0-1
Overall Against the Spread: 122-135-8

Last Week Straight Up: 1-1
Overall Straight Up: 172-93-1

Road to the Super Bowl - San Francisco 49ers (13-4-1, NFC West and NFC Champions)

The end of the 2011 season left a bitter taste in the mouths of the San Francisco 49ers. After a seven win turnaround from 2010, the 49ers were just a few fumble miscues away from reaching their sixth Super Bowl in franchise history. Instead, they had to watch the team they lost to, the flukey New York Giants take home the Super Bowl trophy. The pundits expected a regression, figuring the 49ers just got lucky, instead of realizing that they were good because of coach Jim Harbaugh. They ignored the fact that the defense returned all eleven starters, and that the offense had added weapons. The question was, how would the 49ers deal with a tougher schedule and being the hunted, instead of the hunter in 2011.

The 49ers made quite the statement in Week 1, when they went to Lambeau Field and steamrolled the Green Bay Packers, 30-22. The game was not as close as the final score indicated, as the Niners led 23-7, and 30-15 at different points of the game. RB Frank Gore ran wild, WR Randy Moss made an instant impact with a touchdown catch, and QB Alex Smith outplayed defending league MVP Aaron Rodgers. Their Week 2 win over the Detroit Lions in their home opener wasn't as impressive but it was a game that San Francisco controlled from start to finish. The offense followed the same formula as the Green Bay game, with Gore churning yards rushing, and Smith efficiently leading the offense. The defense continued its strong play, especially their rush defense. Week 3 proved to be a rude awakening for San Francisco, as they were flattened by the Minnesota Vikings at the Metrodome, 24-13. Smith played badly, averaging just 5 yards per completion, the Niners turned the ball over three times, and when trailing early they abandoned Frank Gore and the running game. The defense also struggled, letting Christian Ponder throw for 2 touchdowns.  A trademark of the Harbaugh era 49ers has been their ability to respond after a loss, and the New York Jets learned that the hard way in Week 4. The 49ers blasted the Jets, 34-0 and also unleashed QB Colin Kaepernick on the NFL. The defense held the Jets to just 145 total yards and forced four turnovers. On offense Kaepernick rushed for his first NFL touchdown. The 49ers were 3-1 at the quarter mark of the season, in first place in the NFC West.

The 49ers were even more impressive in Week 5 at home against Buffalo, defeating the Bills 45-3. The offense had an astounding 621 yards and Smith had his greatest game as a pro, throwing for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Niners were feeling real good about themselves going into their Week 6 game at home against the Giants. They were building it up as a revenge game, but instead it proved to be the most embarrassing loss in the Jim Harbaugh era, as the Giants won 26-3. Smith threw three interceptions, and Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw carved up the 49ers defense. The 49ers had to quickly erase the game from their minds as they hosted the upstart Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. The offense again struggled, but the defense returned to form, although the 49ers caught a few breaks due to many dropped passes by Seattle receivers. The 49ers ultimately came out on top 13-6, to improve to 5-2 and atop the NFC West. San Francisco was once again in prime time the following week, at Arizona on Monday Night Football. Smith would complete 18 of his 19 passes along with 3 touchdowns, including one to Moss, as the Niners rolled 24-3. Michael Crabtree began to make his presence felt as he had 5 catches for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns. Going into their bye week and at the halfway point of the season, the Niners were sitting pretty at 6-2.

Coming off their bye week the Niners figured that the St. Louis Rams would provide an easy win. Instead, San Francisco trailed 14-0 early, and then later lost Smith to a concussion. Kaepernick came in and was able to help the Niners tie the game at 24 and send it into overtime. This game marked the beginning of the end of David Akers as reliable kicker, as he missed a 41 yard field goal that could have won the game in overtime. The Rams blew multiple opportunities to win the game, and it ended in a kissing your sister tie. The 49ers were back in primetime in Week 11 on Monday Night football against the Chicago Bears. It appeared that Smith would play in the game but on Monday it was decided that Kaepernick would get the start. Kap took advantage of his opportunity and put the rest of the league on notice with a brilliant performance. He was 16 of 23 for 2 touchdowns in his first career start as the Niners destroyed Chicago, 32-7. TE Vernon Davis had a monster game, which would prove to be his last big game for a while. After Kap's performance myself and many other 49er fans were ready to hand the reigns of the team to him. Members of the media were far too scared to make such a drastic change, but Harbaugh wasn't and Kap was named the starter for the game in New Orleans. How would the young quarterback respond in such a tough environment? The answer was very well as he threw for 231 yards, a touchdown, and also rushed for a touchdown. The defense really turned the game around as LB Ahmad Brooks and CB Donte Whitner each returned interceptions for touchdowns. The 49ers were now 8-2-1 and had stumbled into a game changer at quarterback. But then they had to travel to St. Louis to take on the Rams and once again they were given a fight. For whatever reason this season, St. Louis had the 49ers number. Like the first game, this one would go into overtime, and also like the first game, Akers would miss a chance to win the game. Kap also made some bad mistakes that cost the 49ers the game. With four games left in the season, San Francisco was 8-3-1.

Against Miami the following week, Kap was played mediocre and the Alex Smith whispers started coming out. But then late in the game, with San Francisco winning 20-13, Kap ran the ball 50 yards for a score to seal the victory. In that one play, he showed the difference between him at quarterback and Smith. Kap faced his most difficult challenge of his young career in Week 15 at New England on Sunday Night Football. Once again as he had in the past, he responded wonderfully. The 49ers shocked the country by jumping out to a 31-3 lead. The offense was humming along as Moss continued to save his biggest plays for primetime, scoring a touchdown against his former team. The defense was harassing Tom Brady into mistakes and a win seemed assured. But then the Niners slipped into the terrible prevent defense and New England made a furious comeback to tie the game at 31 in the fourth quarter. The Patriots kicked off after tying the game, and rookie LaMichael James, just recently brought up to the active roster had a huge kickoff return. On the next play Kap would hit Crabtree for a 38 yard touchdown pass and the 49ers would go on to win 41-34. The 49ers were now 10-3-1 and could clinch the NFC West with a win at Seattle, again on Sunday Night Football. Seattle is probably the hardest stadium to play in when the Seahawks are good, and the 49ers, spent from the game against New England, were destroyed 42-13. The defense had no answer for Russell Wilson and it became apparent how much they missed Justin Smith, who had been injured in the win against New England. Despite the loss, the 49ers still controlled their destiny for the NFC West. They also had a chance at a first round bye, if the Vikings could beat the Packers. All the 49ers had to do was beat the hapless Cardinals at home. Early in the game though the offense was struggling, and Akers continued to miss field goals. Eventually, the 49ers woke up and put away the Cardinals, 27-13 to finish the season 11-4-1 and earn their second straight NFC West title. They also received even better news as the Packers lost to the Vikings, assuring the Niners a first round bye.

Despite his strong play, people still felt that Kap would fold under the pressure of the playoffs. With the Packers dispatching the Vikings in the Wild Card round, Green Bay was coming to San Francisco. The Packers had owned the 49ers in the playoffs in the history of these two teams, so 49er fans were understandably nervous. Those nerves ratcheted up even more when on the first drive Kap threw an awful pick six. But Kap, playing like a veteran, didn't let it bother him, and on the next drive converted a crucial third down and eventually ran it 20 yards for the tying score. The teams would go back and forth the first three quarters, each offense throwing haymakers, and the defenses trying to keep up. With the game tied at 24, Kap would take control and break past Packers defenders for a 56 yard touchdown run, giving the 49ers a 31-24 lead. Gore and Anthony Dixon would add touchdown runs and Niners ended up routing Green Bay 45-31. When all was said and done Kap had rushed for 181 yards, a record for a quarterback in any game ever played. He had also thrown for 263 yards and a touchdown. He instantly became a star throughout the league. Thing was, the 49ers still had another game to win and had to do it in the Georgia Dome against the number one seed, Atlanta Falcons. Things couldn't have gotten off to a worse start as the Falcons jumped ahead 17-0 early in the second quarter. WR Julio Jones was single handedly killing the 49ers, whose defense and corners had no answer for him. But Kap once again played like a veteran and the 49ers offense got to work of getting back into the game. Vernon Davis, who had disappeared from the offense for weeks, was running free and Kap was finding him. A 4 yard touchdown pass to Davis, got the Niners within three at 17-14. But then once again the defense couldn't stop Atlanta, and the Falcons went into halftime winning 24-14. A Frank Gore touchdown run once again brought the 49ers within three, and then the defense finally started making plays. Chris Culliver would pick off a Matt Ryan pass, but Akers and his awful kicking would rear its ugly head again, as he boinked a 38-yard attempt off the upright. Then after a Ryan fumble, the 49ers were driving again, but Crabtree fumbled the ball at Falcons 1-yard line. The defense kept making stops, and finally the Niners took the lead with a 9-yard Gore touchdown run. The Falcons had one last chance and got within the 49ers 10 yard line, but the defense made the stops necessary, and clinched a 28-24 victory. The 49ers were on their way to their sixth Super Bowl in franchise history and first since 1995. They will try to make it six for six in Super Bowls when they face the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.

Road to the Super Bowl - Baltimore Ravens (13-6, AFC North and AFC Champions)

The Baltimore Ravens entered the 2012 season still feeling the disappointment of the ending of their 2011 season. They were just a few key plays away from reaching the Super Bowl. The Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era had led to four straight playoff berths, but the Ravens had been unable to make that leap to AFC Champion. Long known as a defensive team, that side of the ball was aging rapidly. The team was becoming more reliant on their offense, which meant more pressure on QB Joe Flacco and RB Ray Rice. Could the Ravens use this shift in philosophy to take their team to the next level?

The season got off to a fantastic start with a Monday night blowout win at home against Cincinnati. Flacco averaged over 10 yards a completion, throwing 2 touchdown passes. Ray Rice had only 10 carries but still rushed for two touchdowns. The defense played well, including S Ed Reed returning an interception 34 yards for a touchdown. Things did not go so well in a Week 2, 24-23 loss to Philadelphia. Flacco barely completed 50% of his passes, and the offense was unable to take advantage of four Eagles turnovers. Even worse three of those Eagles turnovers came in the red zone, so the game could have been a blowout. The Ravens didn't have any time to feel sorry for themselves, as the New England Patriots came to Baltimore in a rematch of the 2011 AFC Championship. New England led 30-21 in the 4th quarter, but a touchdown catch by Torrey Smith and a game winning field goal at the buzzer by rookie Justin Tucker, improved the Ravens to 2-1. Smith had learned that morning that his brother had died in a motorcycle accident. However, he still played and played tremendously, catching 6 passes for 127 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Ravens improved to 3-1 at the quarter mark of the season with an ugly 23-16 win against Cleveland on Thursday night football. This game will be most remembered as the night the regular officials returned from being locked out. Flacco had his second straight game over 300 yards passing, while Ray Rice had just 49 yards rushing. This was proving to become a bone of contention in Baltimore, as fans felt the offense utilizing the talents of Rice enough.

Things didn't get any prettier for the Ravens in a Week 5 trip to Kansas City, but the wins kept coming, this time in a field goal filled 9-6 win. Rice went over 100 yards rushing, but he was about the only part of the offense doing anything. The defense let Jamaal Charles run all over them, but picked off Matt Cassel twice to help preserve the victory. Baltimore would win its fourth straight game in Week 6 against Dallas but it proved to be a costly victory. Their best corner Lardarius Webb tore his ACL and was lost for the season. It appeared that LB Ray Lewis was also lost for the season with a torn triceps. An already struggling defense was now without 2 starters the rest of the way, leaving a lot of questions for the Ravens. A week 7 trip to Houston would be a good barometer of where the Ravens stood with the league's best following their defensive injuries. Early returns were not good, as the Texans routed Baltimore 43-13. Flacco threw 2 picks, one of which was a pick 6, and Ray Rice had just 9 carries as the game became ugly early.  The Ravens had been hopeful as it was LB Terrell Suggs first game back from an off-season injury. Suggs played alright but didn't receive much help. After a week off, the Ravens earned a reprieve in Week 9, when they got to travel to Cleveland to face their punching bag, the Browns. Flacco had another pedestrian game, but didn't turn the ball over. Rice had 98 yards rushing and a touchdown, while the defense picked off Brandon Weeden twice in the 25-15 win. The win improved the Ravens to 6-2 at the halfway mark and in first place in the AFC North.

The Ravens improved to 7-2 with a 55-20 rout of the Oakland Raiders. Rice did very little while Flacco threw for 341 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. TE Dennis Pitta had one of those touchdowns and continued his emergence as another threat for Flacco to go along with Smith and Anquan Boldin. The defense played without Haloti Ngata, and CB Jimmy Smith, and allowed over 400 yards to the Raiders offense. It didn't matter though with the way the offense was playing, and free agent pick up Jacoby Jones even got into the act with a 105 yard kickoff return for a touchdown. The Ravens were back in primetime in Week 11, at their arch rivals the Steelers. Pittsburgh was without QB Ben Roethlisberger and were force to start Byron Leftwich. Leftwich shocked everyone with a 31 yard rushing touchdown to give Pittsburgh an early 7-0 lead. That was pretty much his and the Steelers offense lone highlight of the game. Jones again made his presence felt, returning a punt 63 yards for a touchdown in what proved to be the game winning score, as the Ravens would hold on to a 13-10 win. The Ravens were now 8-2 and two games in front of the Steelers in the AFC North. The Ravens would earn a miraculous 16-13 win in overtime at San Diego in Week 12. They trailed the Chargers 13-3 with a little over 7 minutes remaining. They would eventually get within three points on a Flacco to Pitta touchdown pass. With 1:37 remaining in the game, the Ravens faced a 4th and 29. Flacco then hit Rice with a little screen pass, that Rice then turned into a 29 1/2 yard gain. The play became known as "hey diddle diddle, Ray Rice up the middle". Tucker would nail a 38 yard field goal the buzzer, and then another 38 yarder with just 1 minute left in overtime. The Ravens also got good news as the Steelers fell to Cleveland, giving Baltimore what seemed to be an insurmountable 3 game lead in the division with just 5 games left. In fact, with the Steelers coming to Baltimore in Week 13, the Ravens could clinch the division with a win. It seemed like a win was inevitable as Pittsburgh was down to their third string quarterback, Charlie Batch. The Ravens had also won 15 straight games at home, and 13 wins in a row within the division. Baltimore led going into the 4th quarter 20-13 but Batch would bring Pittsburgh back. Shaun Suisham would hit the game winning field goal as time expired, shocking Baltimore 23-20. Flacco continued his inconsistent play, while the defense shockingly allowed 366 yards to the Steelers offense. It was a tough loss but Baltimore still held a 2-game lead in the division and felt good about themselves at 9-3.

Things started to become tense the next week, when Baltimore dropped their second straight, this time a 31-28 defeat in overtime at Washington. Flacco was held under 200 yards passing for the fifth time in the season and a 121 yard rushing effort by Rice wasn't enough. The Ravens led 28-20 late in the game, and even knocked out Redskins superstar QB Robert Griffin III on a vicious hit by Ngata. But Kirk Cousins came in and still led the Redskins to the game tying touchdown and 2-point conversion. In overtime the Ravens allowed a long punt return and a Kai Forbath field goal sealed the loss. Despite sitting at 9-4, coach Harbaugh felt changes had to be made and fired offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Cameron was replaced by former Indianapolis Colts coach, the "fiery" Jim Caldwell. There had long been rumors that Flacco was not a big fan of Cameron and it was clear  that Harbaugh was hitching his wagon to Flacco. The move didn't pay off right away as the Ravens dropped their second straight game at home, getting blown out by the Broncos 34-17. Flacco had an awful pick 6 at the end of the first half that led to the Ravens trailing 17-0. The Ravens had gotten all the way down to the Broncos 2 yard line, then saw Chris Harris return the interception 98 yards for the score. The Ravens trailed 31-3 at one point, before two late garbage touchdowns to Pitta made the game look a little more respectable. The Ravens had now lost three in a row and were 9-5. The Cincinnati Bengals had kept winning and now just stood a game out of first place in the division. The Ravens faced a must win game at home against the New York Giants in Week 16, and rose to the challenge. Flacco threw for over 300 yards for the fifth time that season, Bernard Pierce and Rice each rushed for over 100 yards, and the defense confused and frustrated Eli Manning all day, as the Ravens routed the Giants 33-14. The win clinched the AFC North title for Baltimore and left them with nothing to play for in the Week 17 finale against Cincinnati. They mostly played backups in a 23-17 loss, finishing the season at 10-6.

The Ravens hosted Andrew Luck and the upstart Indianapolis Colts in the Wild Card round. Ray Lewis was playing in his first game since tearing his triceps against Dallas in Week 6. It was also going to be the final home game he ever played, as earlier in the week he announced his retirement. The game was methodical and didn't feature much scoring, as each team turned the ball over twice. The Colts were hanging around, down 17-9, until Flacco hit Boldin for an 18 yard touchdown that sealed the victory. RB Pierce continued his emergence, rushing for 103 yards. Flacco had just 12 completions but made them count, averaging over 12 yard a completion. The win set up a rematch with Broncos, but this time Baltimore had to travel to Denver. The Ravens were heavy underdogs and not given much of a chance. The game was exciting from beginning to end, the Broncos raced ahead 7-0 on a Trindon Holliday 90 yard punt return touchdown. Flacco and the Ravens responded right away with a 59 yard touchdown toss to Torrey Smith. Then Corey Graham put Baltimore ahead 14-7 with a 39 yard interception return for a touchdown. The teams continued to trade scores and went into the half tied at 21. Then Holliday started the second half with a 104 yard kickoff return, putting the Broncos ahead. The Ravens would tie the game with a Rice touchdown run but the Broncos took a 35-28 lead late in the 4th quarter. The Ravens faced third and 3 from their own 30 with just 31 seconds remaining. Flacco would then hit Jacoby Jones for a 70 yard touchdown pass, shocking the Broncos and their home fans. Neither offense would score in overtime but the Ravens would pick off Peyton Manning in Denver territory to close the first overtime session. Justin Tucker then hit a 47-yard field goal in overtime number two and the Ravens had completed the shocking upset. They were in the AFC Championship game for a second straight season and fittingly would be at New England once again. The Ravens trailed New England 13-7 at the half but the Patriots suffered a huge loss when they lost CB Aqib Talib to injury. Flacco took advantage of his absence in the second half , throwing three touchdown passes. Oddly, for the second time in the postseason, Pierce, not Rice led the Ravens in rushing. The Patriots offense couldn't get in a rhythm all day as Tom Brady averaged just 5.9 yards per completion and was picked off twice. The Ravens had their revenge, winning 28-13, earning themselves their second Super Bowl trip in franchise history and setting up the Harbowl.

The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships

We are down to the final four in the NFL Playoffs. Going into last week's games it isn't the final four many had been expecting. Everyone assumed we would get Manning vs. Brady in the AFC, and I saw a lot of people picking Seattle at Green Bay in a rematch of the Monday Night Monstrosity. Instead for the second straight season, it will be Baltimore at New England for the AFC Championship. While on the NFC side of things, the Niners are back in the championship game, but this time travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. This week most appear to be sure that we will have a New England vs. San Francisco Super Bowl in two weeks. As a 49ers fan, I am very confident about their chances against Atlanta, but with everyone picking the Niners it definitely makes me nervous. If I have learned anything watching the NFL for over 20 years, it is to expect the unexpected.


NFC Championship: #2 San Francisco (12-4-1) at #1 Atlanta (14-3), San Francisco favored by 4

Colin Kaepernick arrived on the national scene last week with his incredible performance against the Green Bay Packers. After he threw that drive opening pick six, my fears of him being overwhelmed by the moment looked to be right. But then he showed incredible moxie and played tremendously the rest of the game. He rushed for 181 yards, which is incredible to do as a quarterback in the NFL. He wasn't just a rushing threat though, the touch he showed on his deep balls was beautiful. For the few idiots questioning the move from game manager Alex Smith, to game changer Kaepernick there was nothing left for them to say. The Falcons dominated Seattle in the first half, and had me crowing as I was one of the few to predict that they would beat the Seahawks. Then it seemed as if a switch turned and this version of the Falcons remembered they don't enjoy success and would rather be losers. Matty "Ice" Ryan finally actually lived up to that nickname and calmly drove the Falcons into field goal range, and the rest was history.

Last year, the 49ers had a championship defense but a mediocre offense. Smith did play out of his mind against New Orleans last year, but that Saints defense wasn't good. Smith wet himself in the NFC Championship game, not even completing a pass to a wide receiver the entire game. That won't happen Sunday with Kaepernick. For one, WR Michael Crabtree has emerged as the number one receiver the 49ers envisioned when they drafted him. He is living up to the moniker he bestowed upon himself, as "King Crab". I think part of that has to do with old timer Randy Moss. Moss hasn't made a ton of huge plays this season, but his presence has taken some pressure off Crabtree. Moss has been an ideal signing this year. He has made a few plays, not caused any trouble, and has been a good influence on the receiving corps. Last year's main man in the playoffs was TE Vernon Davis. Davis has mostly disappeared from the offense for the last month, but did have one long reception against Green Bay. Kaepernick targeted him a few times against the Packers, and hopefully he can get something going on Sunday. Let's also not forget about Frank "the tank" Gore, who continues to run through holes and play at a high level. The Falcons defense struggles to rush the quarterback, is mediocre at best, and has a gimpy John Abraham. The 49ers have to be licking their chops at going up against this defense. The Falcons defense also has to contend with one of the best offensive lines in the game. Pro Bowler Joe Staley was battling an injury against Green Bay, but battled through it and played great. All indications are that he will play Sunday, and hopefully he can gut through the injury.

Atlanta definitely has some weapons offensively, especially in the receiving game. Roddy White, Julio Jones, and the ageless TE Tony Gonzalez make up one of the best receiving corps in the game today. They have a pretty good quarterback in Ryan throwing them the ball, but Ryan makes a lot of stupid, head scratching throws. Going up against the Niners beastly defense, he is going to have to make some decisions on the run, and the ball hawks in the Niners secondary figure to at least pick off one or two of his passes. One thing that happened in the Falcons win over Seattle that no one anticipated was the Falcons run games being more effective than Seattle's. Michael Turner was running like it was 2009. He may have gashed the Seahawks overrated defense, but I bet he doesn't even average 4.0 yards a carry against San Francisco. Jacquizz Rodgers concerns me more than Turner, but the Falcons seem intent on Turner getting the bulk of the carries. The Niners do have to watch Rogers coming out of the backfield and catching passes, because once he gets the ball, with his speed, he can turn anything into a big play. The Falcons offensive line is strong, and the Seahawks lack of pass rush doomed them. I am confident that Aldon Smith, Justin Smith and company can get pressure on Ryan. Special teams wise, Falcons punter Matt Bosher was terrible last week when he actually had to punt, and that could be a factor Sunday as far as field position. Thankfully, for the 49ers David Akers made the one field goal he attempted last week, and I pray that this game doesn't have to come down to his leg.

If the 49ers win this game to advance to the Super Bowl they will have achieved something they haven't all season long, a three game winning streak. Pretty incredible to think that a team with a 12-4-1 record hasn't won three straight all year, but that's the case. On paper, the 49ers are clearly the better team. If this game were in San Francisco I would give the Falcons no chance at all. Dealing with the crowd at the Georgia Dome will be tough, but let's not forget this Falcons team blew a 20 point lead at home last week. Plus, the 49ers have already shown they can go into tough environments like Lambeau, the Superdome, and New England and not only win games, but dominate. The 49ers are too well coached and have too much talent to lose this game and will return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1995.

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Atlanta 17


AFC Championship: #4 Baltimore (12-6) at #1 New England (13-4), New England favored by 9

The Ravens came into the playoffs with no momentum but here they are, in the AFC Championship game for the third time in five seasons. Them beating the Colts in the Wild Card round wasn't a surprise, but almost no one had them beating the Broncos. I thought the game would be close, but still figured Denver would pull it out. I underestimated the Broncos fraudiness and Peyton Manning's ability to choke in the playoffs. The Ravens are once again huge underdogs, and once again I think this game will be closer than the experts think. The Patriots bulldozed the Texans and seemed destined to reach their sixth Super Bowl in twelve seasons. They did lose TE Rob Gronkowski for the rest of the playoffs when he re-injured his forearm early in the Texans game. However, the offense has hummed along fine without him this season, so it doesn't appear to be a crucial loss.

For Baltimore to stay in this game they will once again need a tremendous effort from polarizing quarterback Joe Flacco. Some have been quick to laud praise on Flacco and call him elite, while others still aren't that impressed, despite Flacco having 5 road playoff wins in his career. I fall somewhere in the middle, but there is no denying that Flacco has come up huge for his team in some big spots. Last year in the AFC Championship he outplayed Tom Brady, and had Lee Evans held on to the ball, Flacco would have been in the Super Bowl. These teams met in Week 3 this season in Baltimore, and Flacco outplayed Brady in that game as well. Flacco has shown that he likes playing against the Patriots defense, and I expect he will play well in this game. It got lost in the shuffle of all the storylines from last week's game but RB Ray Rice also played very well. He rushed for 101 yards against New England earlier this season, and when is running well, it makes things so much easier for Flacco. Flacco has some bonafide receivers in Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith and even TE Dennis Pitta. Defensively, the Ravens have looked much better since they finally got healthy. The scoreboard showed Denver with 35 points last week, but 14 of those came from kickoff and punt returns. The defense will have to dole out big hits on guys like Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez to stop them from taking over the middle of the field. The Patriots offensive line is stingy, so it is imperative for Baltimore that if they can't pressure Brady, they at least make the receivers nervous.

New England will play their hurry, uptempo offense, and you can expect them to have some wrinkles that no one will know about it beforehand. In last year's game it was using Hernandez at running back, and last week it was highlighting Shane Vareen in the passing game. The Patriots couldn't get their running game on track in the Week 3 meeting at Baltimore. I don't expect that to be the case Sunday. Stevan Ridley has become a strong runner, and as long as he isn't fumbling he will gain yardage. Defensively, the Patriots won't shut down the Ravens attack, they just need to manage them, as the offense is bound to put up points for New England. The Ravens line has played well in the playoffs but was re-tooled just two weeks ago, so the opportunities are there for the Patriots to pressure Flacco. Also, Vince Wilfork is always a beast in the middle and will be hard to stop from making Ray Rice's life difficult.

If this was the Ravens defense from three or four years ago I think I would go with the upset. This is the third time the Ravens have reached this game and the law of averages would make you think they have to break through and reach the Super Bowl at some point. I just don't think their defense, even healthy can make enough plays to prevent the Patriots from hanging 30 points. A Harbowl battle between the 49ers and Ravens would be fun, but I don't think John's team can do their part of the deal. The Patriots will once again represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and look to win their first championship since 2004.

Prediction: New England 30, Baltimore 24

Last Week Against the Spread: 2-2
Overall Against the Spread: 121-135-7

Last Week Straight Up: 3-1
Overall Straight Up: 171-92-1