The Hail Mary - Week 10

Middle ground doesn't exist with this week's games. There are either game between good teams or games between bad teams. Thankfully, the games between good teams are some really good ones, which could have a huge impact on the playoff race as the second half of the season kicks into gear.

Week 10 - Sunday, November 13

New Orleans (6-3) at Atlanta (5-3), Line is Even

This is one of those good games I was talking about. The Saints can either get a leg up in the NFC South with a win or the Falcons can move into first place for the first time this season. The Saints have been a Jekyll and Hyde team all season. They have been at their best when at home, but the road has proven to be a struggle. Their last road game was their most embarrassing performance of the season, when they were soundly defeated by the Rams. The Falcons are coming off their bye and currently are on a three game winning streak. Michael Turner has been running well as of late and Matt Ryan has improved his play after a slow start to the season. Home field advantage doesn't mean nearly as much in the NFL as it does college but the Saints are the exception to that rule. I think these two teams are very evenly matched, so will give the Falcons the edge at home.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, New Orleans 23

Pittsburgh (6-3) at Cincinnati (6-2), Pittsburgh favored by 3

Now is the time where we find out just how real the 6-2 Bengals are. In their next four games they play the Steelers twice and the Ravens once. I thought the Bengals were going to be the worst team in the league. They just seemed way too young and I had no idea QB Andy Dalton would be so poised in his rookie season. The Steelers are coming off a stomach punch loss at home to Baltimore. The defense, which had been playing better, couldn't get off the field on third down and then let Joe Unibrow drive the Ravens 92 yards for the game winning touchdown. I think Mike Tomlin will have the Steelers seething after that loss and a tough week of practice. I expect the defense to play well, and cause Dalton to make some rookie mistakes. I am picking against Cincy for the third straight week, maybe I will finally be right this time.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 22, Cincinnati 16

St. Louis (1-7) at Cleveland (3-5), Cleveland favored by 2 1/2

These teams suck and anyone who watches this game probably hates themselves.

Prediction: Cleveland 6, St. Louis 2

Buffalo (5-3) at Dallas (4-4), Dallas favored by 5 1/2

Dallas seems entirely overvalued by Vegas. They have one good win this whole season, and that was back in Week 2 against a 49ers team that was nowhere near the team they are now. The Bills did stumble badly at home last week against the Jets but I am not ready to say this is the beginning of their descent. Fred Jackson will be ready to bounce back after an awful game last week and I think Ryan Fitzpatrick and the passing game will have success moving the ball on the Cowboys. Dallas has been inconsistent all season and this just feels like a game they are going to lose.

Prediction: Buffalo 28, Dallas 24

Jacksonville (2-6) at Indianapolis (0-9), Jacksonville favored by 3

Call me crazy but I think this is the week the Colts finally get a victory. It will be ugly and this is another game where if you hate yourself you will be watching but the Colts aren't going to go 0-16. They have to win sometime and this is as good a chance as any.

Prediction: Indianapolis 10, Jacksonville 9

Denver (3-5) at Kansas City (4-4), Kansas City favored by 3

I hate it when there are games where I have a feeling about them and then I talk myself out of it. That happened last night when I didn't pick Oakland to beat San Diego, and happened last week when I didn't pick Miami to beat Kansas City. The Chiefs are an incredibly hard team to read. When they lose they seem to lose in spectacularly embarrassing fashion. Tim Tebow stood in the face of his doubters and played well enough to keep his job for another week. To be playing for your job is a tremendous amount of pressure from week to week. Sure, he still isn't accurate but his touchdown throws were some pretty throws and he is a huge threat running the ball. This is a very tough game to get a read on, but I am leaning Chiefs so I will listen and not talk myself out of it.

Prediction: Kansas City 26, Denver 21

Washington (3-5) at Miami (1-7), Miami favored by 3 1/2

Zero buzz about this game around Washington as it is obvious the season is doomed and the fans have checked out. John Beck returns to Miami, still looking for his first win ever as an NFL starter. I agreed with the move to Beck at the time but am not really seeing any justification for sticking with him at this point. He is missing some key players, but Santana Moss and Chris Cooley weren't setting the world on fire for Rex Grossman. The offense has looked terrible the past two weeks, with Beck hearkening back to the check down days of Mark Brunell. The Dolphins have played well for the past two weeks and they seem due for a home win. Things have gotten so bad in Washington, that Skins fans aren't even going to blink when Washington loses this game.

Prediction: Miami 17, Washington 14

Arizona (2-6) at Philadelphia (3-5), No Line

The Eagles are a maddening team. They seem scared to death of success or something. Once again they blew a fourth quarter lead and now their season is on life support. This game might have been interesting if Kevin Kolb was able to start for Arizona but instead its just John Skelton coming to Philly and not the return of Kolb. The Eagles should pummel the Cardinals, but at the very least, just need to win.

Prediction: Philadelphia 34, Arizona 17

Houston (6-3) at Tampa Bay (4-4), Houston favored by 3

Tough game to call here. Tampa Bay is completely mediocre but I still am not quite sure what to make of Houston. They have won three straight despite missing their best player on offense and defense, so they should be lauded for that. I might be more inclined to buy in if they can win at Tampa. The running game has been phenomenal for Houston, with Arian Foster and Ben Tate each contributing big games. This is now a passing league but as the Texans and Niners have shown, if you can run the ball successfully and consistently you will do pretty well. I think Tampa will slow down that run game just a bit this week, enough to get them the semi upset.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 21, Houston 20

Tennessee (4-4) at Carolina (2-6), Carolina favored by 3

I would take Carolina in this game but after they dropped what should have been a win at home against Minnesota it just doesn't seem like a smart pick. The Titans are certainly stumbling but with a veteran leader like Matt Hasselbeck I think they can win a game on the road against the rookie Cam Newton. The Panthers still just make too many mistakes, and will find some way to shoot themselves in the foot.

Prediction: Tennessee 28, Carolina 27

Baltimore (6-2) at Seattle (2-6), Baltimore favored by 7

That win for the Ravens over the Steelers was impressive but not impressive enough for me to completely forget how they couldn't cover against Jacksonville or Arizona in the two weeks prior. The Seahawks are awful, but I can just see Flacco struggle in this game, and the Ravens to suffer a let down after last week's big win. However, the Seahawks are so bad that the Ravens can still win this game with a letdown.

Prediction: Baltimore 20, Seattle 14

Detroit (6-2) at Chicago (5-3), Chicago favored by 1 1/2

The Bears are looking like contenders. Since losing at Detroit on Monday night the Bears have run off three straight victories. The offensive line has played much better, which has allowed Jay Cutler to play exceptionally. Matt Forte continues to be an offensive weapon, and the defense has been strong all season. The shine is coming off the Lions a bit. They are completely one dimensional on offense. It is Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson and that's it. That is a great weapon to have, but they need to establish some semblance of a running game if they want to be successful. The key to their win over Chicago was the crowd and the implosion of the Bears offensive line. Neither of those figure to be in play this time around, so I like the Bears in this game.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Detroit 21

New York Giants (6-2) at San Francisco (7-1), San Francisco favored by 3 1/2

It is the game of the weekend! It is so awesome to see the 49ers playing in big games again. Giants/Niners was a huge rivalry in the late 80's and early 90's, so its cool to see a battle of the titans between these two teams. The Eli Manning bandwagon is officially full after his quarterbacking led the Giants to a comeback win over New England. I was impressed at how he was able to lead them down the field, despite being without his best playmaker Hakeem Nicks. The defense was getting pressure on Tom Brady and is looking like the defense from a few years ago that won the Giants a Super Bowl. As for the 49ers it wasn't pretty but they controlled the game against the Skins and have a championship defense. Alex Smith continues to simply do what is asked of him, while Frank Gore carries the team. I know that formula isn't sustainable all season, so Smith will be called upon at some point to make some big plays. This is a great test for the 49ers and could have huge playoff implications. The NFC West is all but wrapped up but the Niners have a great shot at getting a first round bye. However, if they lose this game they will slip to third behind the Giants, and the Giants will own the tiebreaker. I have to go total homer with my pick and pick the Niners. I worry that this is the week Gore slows down but I think the defense can make enough plays to compensate.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, New York Giants 20

New England (5-3) at New York Jets (5-3), New York Jets favored by 1 1/2

Funny how quickly things change in the NFL. A few weeks ago it was the Jets that were in free fall, while the Patriots were sitting pretty. Those roles have now reversed as the Jets are riding a three game winning streak, while the Patriots have dropped two straight. The New England offense hasn't looked all that great for three games in a row now. The Jets defense on the other hand seems to be rounding back into their 2009 and 2010 form. The offense, while not quite the running team they had been, is finally seeming to go back to their identity of ball control. I can't remember the last time New England has lost three games. I think coach Bill Genius is losing his touch a bit but I can't pick the Patriots to drop a third straight game.

Prediction: New England 25, New York Jets 24

Monday, November 14

Minnesota (2-6) at Green Bay (8-0), Green Bay favored by 13 1/2

The Vikings gave Green Bay a scare when they played in Minnesota so I don't think the Packers should take this game for granted. If Adrian Peterson can run the ball well like he did in the last game these teams played, the Vikings might have a chance to pull off a miracle upset. Hell, who am I kidding? Aaron Rodgers is going to play near perfect again the Vikings will get a backdoor cover with a touchdown late.

Prediction: Green Bay 30, Minnesota 17

Last Week Straight Up: 7-7
Overall Straight Up: 83-47

Last Week Against the Spread: 8-6
Overall Against the Spread: 64-63-3

Cram Session - Week 11

Starting tonight Thursday NFL games begin so for the last few Cram Sessions I will be leading them with my prediction for the Thursday NFL game or games.

Thursday, November 10

Oakland (4-4) at San Diego (4-4), San Diego favored by 7

Who wants to win the AFC West? Now that the San Francisco 49ers are actually good, the AFC West has decided to take the mantle of western division with nothing but mediocre teams. The Raiders had a great chance to get some separation last week but couldn't overcome the magical force of Tebow, and Willis McGahee, although I don't think McGahee is magical. The Chargers played their usual game last weekend against the Packers. They showed enough flashes to fool people into thinking they are contenders, but couldn't get out of their own way and eventually fell to the Packers. Carson Palmer played alright last weekend, throwing 3 touchdown passes, but he also had 2 critical interceptions and couldn't bring the Raiders back when they were losing late. The Raiders will be without Darren McFadden once again, but Michael Bush filled in adequately last weekend and is a good number 2 to have. I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched so I will give the Chargers the win because of the home field advantage. However, don't get it twisted, the Chargers are still mediocre at best.

Prediction: San Diego 24, Oakland 20

Games That Matter to Me

#19 Nebraska (7-2, 3-2) at #12 Penn State (8-1, 5-0)

Believe it or not Penn State has a football game this weekend. Football has been the last thing on the minds of anyone in Happy Valley this week. All of you reading know about the scandal that has rocked the school and led to the ouster of coach Joe Paterno after 46 years at the helm. Because of that, I won't delve into too much, although I will say the Board of Trustees made the right decision by removing Paterno immediately, instead of letting him retire at the end of the season. Paterno has been replaced for the rest of the season by his defensive coordinator Tom Bradley.

Nebraska is coming off an embarrassing home loss to a bad Northwestern team. As I feared the Huskers felt a little too good about themselves are whooping Michigan State, and didn't come ready to play. They also were befallen by a crucial Rex Burkhead fumble near the goal line, something that seems to be a theme with teams I cheer for. The Huskers now get to play at Penn State in what will be the most surreal game of their lives. There is no telling what kind of atmosphere Beaver Stadium will be Saturday. The Huskers are the lucky ones though, they have been able to do nothing but concentrate on football this week. Surely they have been studying the Nittany Lion defense, which is third in the country in points allowed. The Huskers running game stalled against Northwestern and because of how one dimensional they are on offense, it led to the less. Plain and simply, Burkhead and even Taylor Martinez have to run well for Nebraska to win.

For as good as Penn State is on defense, they are equally bad on offense. They have split between ginger Matt McGloin and Rob Bolden at quarterback, with McGloin stepping forward as the less of two evils. In his last start against Illinois McGloin completed just 37.5% of his passes. With their struggles in the passing game, Penn State has leaned on RB Silas Reid. Reid has rushed for over 100 yards in his last five games, and his lowest output in that stretch was 129 yards on the ground. The Huskers defense wasn't able to get the stops when they needed them against Northwestern, but should be helped by the fact that they can focus much of their attention on Reid and not worry about the Penn State passing game.

It will be fascinating to watch how Penn State responds to this crazy week. I think their have been way too many distractions and the team is going to be shell shocked. If they are able to win this game, I think it will be one of the greatest accomplishments in the history of sports.

Prediction: Nebraska 24, Penn State 13

Maryland (2-7) "at" Notre Dame (6-3), FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland

I will be attending this game Saturday night. With how awful the Twerps have been this season, I expect that I will fit right in with many Notre Dame fans. The Irish had a non-descript victory over Wake Forest last weekend. They didn't play well offensively, but the defense made enough plays for them to hold onto the win. Maryland is a mess and I will be very disappointed if the Irish have to hold on late to win this game. Maryland can't settle on a quarterback, continuously going back and forth between Danny O'Brien and C.J. Brown. It is apparent that Randy Edsall has sapped O'Brien of all the confidence he gained last season when he was ACC Freshman of the Year. The Terps rushing attack is led by Davin Meggett but he hasn't rushed for over 100 yards since doing it against Towson a few months ago.

There isn't really much to say about this game. The Irish clearly have the edge in talent and should blow past Maryland. The offense needs to play precise and quit turning the ball over. This is a chance to have an impressive performance, hopefully the Irish take advantage.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Maryland 17

Top 10 - Thursday, November 10

#10 Virginia Tech (8-1, 4-1) at #21 Georgia Tech (7-2, 4-2)

For all the crap that the ACC takes as a football conference, they do have two teams in the Top 10. That being said, I don't even think Hokies fans would tell you they believe Virginia Tech is a top 10 team this year. That being said, if they win this game they will be in the driver's seat to have a spot in the ACC Championship game in December. The player to watch on Tech is quarterback Logan Thomas. Thomas came into the season with high expectations due to his height and athleticism. He has played pretty well this year and is a threat both throwing and running. Being just a sophomore he has given Hokie fans high hopes for the next two seasons. As is usually the case, the Hokies have a powerful rushing attack behind David Wilson. Wilson has rushed for over 100 yards in every game but one this season. The Hokies love to grind out victories behind Wilson. Wilson allows them to control the clock and keep the defense well rested. That will be a key in this game as the defense will have its hands full with Georgia Tech's high powered offense. The Yellow Jackets offense got back on track in their last game at home against Clemson and is clearly a different unit at home than away. QB Tevin Washington is the key for the Yellow Jackets. When teams like Miami and Virginia slowed him down, it put the whole offense out of whack. I believe that with the home crowd rocking, he will play well and the Yellow Jackets will get a huge win.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 27, Virginia Tech 20

Saturday, November 12

Western Kentucky (5-4) at #1 LSU (9-0)

LSU won the game of the field goals last week and now seems on their way to playing for the BCS National Championship. Their only challenge left is when they host Arkansas on Thanksgiving weekend. I expect a slight hangover effect this weekend, especially with such an easy opponent coming to Baton Rouge. All that will mean is that instead of winning by 50 plus, the Tigers will win by 38.

Prediction: LSU 44, Western Kentucky 6

#2 Oklahoma State (9-0, 6-0) at Texas Tech (5-4, 2-4)

The Cowboys received quite a scare at home from Kansas State last weekend. However, they survived and are just two road wins away from a huge Bedlam showdown against Oklahoma. Their game this week looked a lot scarier three weeks ago after Texas Tech had knocked off the Sooners. But since then the Red Raiders were destroyed at home by Iowa State, and then destroyed on the road by Texas. The only reason the Red Raiders beat the Sooners was they were able to create turnovers. Without those turnovers their defense is one of the worst in the country. Cowboys QB Brandon Wheeden can be interception prone so I think that will keep the Red Raiders hopes up for a bit, but just too much Wheeden and Blackmon for the Red Raiders to spring the upset.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 49, Texas Tech 31

#3 Alabama (8-1, 5-1) at Mississippi State (5-4, 1-4)

The Crimson Tide are licking their wounds after blowing their home game against LSU. Awful special teams play and a questionable trick play call on offense led to their downfall. Despite the loss they dropped just one spot in the BCS Standings and are still very much alive in the national championship race. The Bulldogs have been a major disappointment this season. Their offense has regressed tremendously from last season and hasn't scored enough to complement a very good defense. The Bulldogs defense will keep them in this game, but their offense is going to have some major trouble scoring on Bama.

Prediction: Alabama 27, Mississippi State 9

#7 Oregon (8-1, 6-0) at #4 Stanford (9-0, 7-0)

This is the game of the weekend. Stanford looked primed to move up to number three in the BCS Standings but instead still sits behind one loss Alabama. A win at home over Oregon though should vault the Cardinal, while a loss will end their national title hopes. The Ducks still have outside thoughts of playing for the national championship. The winner of this game will take over the lead in the Pac-12 North standings and be on their way to playing in the first ever Pac-12 championship. Both teams have tremendous rushing attacks, while the Cardinal have the edge at quarterback with Andrew Luck. People think the Ducks defense might finally be what stops Luck. If this game were at Oregon I would definitely pick the Ducks, but this is one of those games where there isn't much that separates the two teams. Because of that, I will go with home field advantage and Stanford to continue their unbeaten season.

Prediction: Stanford 34, Oregon 31

TCU (7-2, 4-0) at #5 Boise State (8-0, 3-0)

This game looked a lot sexier back in September. TCU dropped their first game of the season to Baylor, then lost at home to SMU. They have recovered since then but I still don't think they are on the Broncos level. This is another game where maybe if it were at TCU I could see the upset happening but I can't even remember the last time Boise lost on their blue turf.

Prediction: Boise State 27, TCU 16

Tennessee (4-5, 0-5) at #8 Arkansas (8-1, 4-1)

No one talked about it last weekend but the Razorbacks won the second biggest game of the week when they defeated South Carolina. I think the Razorbacks will have a great shot at knocking off LSU when they play to close the regular season. Before that though, Arkansas has to continue taking care of business. It is really strange to see Tennessee with an 0-5 SEC record. It will look even stranger when it is 0-6 after this weekend.

Prediction: Arkansas 28, Tennessee 10

Wake Forest (5-4, 4-2) at #9 Clemson (8-1, 5-1)

Clemson plays their first game since watching their national championship dreams evaporate against Georgia Tech. They still control their destiny for playing in the ACC Championship but can't suffer a let down against Wake Forest. This is a huge game for Wake, which has struggled in recent weeks but with a victory in this game would take over first place in the ACC Atlantic Division. That's a nice story and all but too much firepower on the Clemson offense will be the Demon Deacons undoing.

Prediction: Clemson 41, Wake Forest 27

Last Week: 7-2
Overall: 86-9

The Hail Mary - Week 9

After the last couple weeks being extremely underwhelming when it came to games between good teams, there are plenty this weekend. There are six games between teams with winning records and even the Monday Night game is a good one, as the Eagles are much better than their 3-4 record indicates. We are now at the halfway mark of the season, and it becomes more and more clear who are contenders and who are pretenders.

Week 9 - Sunday, November 6

New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo (5-2), Buffalo favored by 1 1/2

The Jets are searching for their first road win of the season, while the Bills are undefeated at home. Sometimes things are just too obvious and you can get trapped by them, but its hard to pick against the Bills in this game. The Jets have been underwhelming on the road all season and have never gotten their running game going. The Jets can only win if Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson have an impact on the game. The Bills pass rush came alive against Washington last weekend and it might give them the confidence to make that a consistent part of their defensive attack. They already have a very opportunistic defense and I expect them to force Mark Sanchez into some mistakes. This game will be a tight, back and forth battle between division rivals, but I think Fred Jackson will carry the Bills through a close win.

Prediction: Buffalo 24, New York Jets 20

Seattle (2-5) at Dallas (3-4), Dallas favored by 12

It was a pleasure to watch the Cowboys and their overrated defensive coordinator Rob Ryan embarrassed by the Eagles last Sunday night. The Cowboys will get to a face a team more to their talent level this weekend, when they host the Seahawks. I expect DeMarco Murray to have a big game, and the Cowboys to get their passing game going, which was non-existent last weekend. However, a line that big? I know the Cowboys covered at home against St. Louis a few weeks ago, but I have a hard time picking a 3-4 team to cover a 12 point spread.

Prediction: Dallas 24, Seattle 13

Atlanta (4-3) at Indianapolis (0-8), Atlanta favored by 7

After a sluggish start the Falcons might be ready to make a run at the NFC South. The Saints have been unable to pull away, and the Falcons schedule lightens up considerably in the second half of the season. The Colts best chance at getting a win will be when they host Jacksonville next week. Until then, they just want to avoid being embarrassed and be somewhat competitive.

Prediction: Atlanta 29, Indianapolis 17

Miami (0-7) at Kansas City (4-3), Kansas City favored by 5

The Dolphins teased their fans by leading most of the game against the Giants, before remembering that they suck and lost their 10th straight game dating back to last season. The Chiefs, who looked dead after and 0-3 start and having their best players drop like flies, have won four in a row and find themselves in first place in the AFC West. The emergence of Jackie Battle to the running game, and now WR Jonathan Baldwin appearing ready to make an impact has the Chiefs feeling good about their chances.

Prediction: Kansas City 22, Miami 15

Tampa Bay (4-3) at New Orleans (5-3), New Orleans favored by 8

The Saints are definitely two teams in one. On the road, they are listless, can't stop anybody and appear to be at best a middle of the pack team. At home, their offense is a juggernaut, their defense creates turnovers and they look like a Super Bowl contender. Fortunately for them, they will be hosting Tampa this weekend and will be an angry team looking for revenge. The anger comes from the embarrassment of handing the Rams their first win of the season, and at one point trailing 24-0. The revenge factor comes from them trying to atone their loss at Tampa a few weeks ago. Tampa has played the Saints well in New Orleans, winning their the last two seasons. Because of that I like them to keep it close, but the Saints needs this win to get back on track and will get it.

Prediction: New Orleans 28, Tampa Bay 21

San Francisco (6-1) at Washington (3-4), San Francisco favored by 3 1/2

I will be at FedEx Field for this one, getting to see my beloved 49ers in person for the first time in my life. Wow, that is really hard to believe. I guess that's what happens when your favorite team lives across the country from you. I knew I wanted to go to this game before the season started but I expected I would be going to see a bad Niners team try to pull off an upset. Instead, the Skins are the bad team looking to pull the upset. The Niners now have a four game lead in the NFC West and could possibly clinch the division as early as Thanksgiving. The Skins look like a perfect matchup for them. The Niners success has been the roll that Frank Gore and the running game has been on. The Redskins as of late can't stop anyone on the ground. Another benefit for the 49ers is the Redskins offense is in shambles. It reached the ultimate level of embarrassment against Buffalo, when Mike Shanahan saw an offensive team of his shut out for the first time ever. The offensive line is in tatters and you know that Justin Smith is licking his chops. The Niners will win if Gore goes over 100 yards again and the rush defense plays like it has all season. John Beck won't be passing the Skins to any victories so their only chance is if Alex Smith makes mistakes, instead of being a capable game manager like he has been all season. I think the Skins will show pride at home, but I think the line Vegas gave this game is generous for a 49ers cover.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, Washington 14

Cleveland (3-4) at Houston (5-3), Houston favored by 11

This was a tough game for me to pick. Not straight up, as I love Houston but to cover 11? Normally, I would say no way but the Browns may be down to their 3rd string running back in this game, a guy whose name is too hard to spell for me to even bother trying. Plus, QB Colt McCoy has proven that he probably isn't the long term answer at quarterback. However, knowing the history of the Texans and their coach Gary Kubiak anything is possible.

Prediction: Houston 27, Cleveland 14

Cincinnati (5-2) at Tennessee (4-3), Tennessee favored by 3

No one would have guessed that this game would be a crucial game when it came to potential playoff spots. I thought the Bengals would be the worst team in the league but on the backs of a strong defense, and the beastly play of WR A.J. Green they are right in the thick of things. I am having a hard time believing in them though, as evidenced by me picking them to lose at Seattle this weekend. I was wrong then and I may be wrong again this week but I am not ready to pick them on the road at Tennessee. It will be competitive but I still keep thinking at some point the Bengals will remember how young they are and that they're peaking ahead of schedule. I think the Titans will win, but trust me, I don't think that bum Chris Johnson will have anything to do with it.

Prediction: Tennessee 20, Cincinnati 16

Denver (2-5) at Oakland (4-3), Oakland favored by 8

This whole upheaval in Oakland has me feeling like things aren't going to end well for the Raiders. You can't just bring in guys like Carson Palmer and TJ Houshmandzadeh, who have been sitting on their couches all season, and then think that you're going to the playoffs with them. I expect Palmer to look much sharper this game than he did two weeks ago, but people are fooling themselves if they think TJ is going to add much of anything. This might be Tim Tebow's last chance this season to hold onto his starting job. I want to see him do well but it can't be denied how atrocious he has played through two games this season. Usually I would advocate patience, but you can't keep starting a guy that isn't even completing 50 percent of his passes and is taking way too many sacks. The Raiders will escape with a win this week but their long term prospects aren't good in my opinion.

Prediction: Oakland 26, Denver 21

New York Giants (5-2) at New England (5-2), New England favored by 8 1/2

The Patriots offense has sputtered now for two straight weeks. People tend to forget because they won and it was followed up with a bye week, but the offense did very little against the Cowboys, much like they did very little against the Steelers. Of course, they had set the bar high by scoring 30 points a week before that. I'm betting on a return to form this weekend against a Giants team that despite its 5-2 record, is completely underwhelming. They love to play down to their competition, but they also seem to play up when competition is good. They're going to have to as starting with this week the schedule gets very tough. They feel good now with a 2 game lead in the division but things could go south quickly. I think Brady will pick apart their weak secondary and the Patriots defense will do just enough to get the win.

Prediction: New England 30, New York Giants 24

St. Louis (1-6) at Arizona (1-6), No Line

Who cares?

Prediction: Arizona 9, St. Louis 6

Green Bay (7-0) at San Diego (4-3), Green Bay favored by 6

People are foolish. They keep riding the Chargers despite the Chargers giving people no reason to believe in them. They have Norv Turner who has never gotten this team to play to its talent level, they have injuries at the running back position, and they have Philip Rivers who has looked about as good as Rex Grossman and John Beck this season. They are a flawed team without the necessary leadership to be anything more than a fringe contender. The Chargers would love to be the Packers, a team that can still play well despite injuries, has a competent head coach, and a world class quarterback. Now excuse me while I puke for having to pay the Packers all those compliments. I blame the Chargers, screw you San Diego!

Prediction: Green Bay 24, San Diego 19

Baltimore (5-2) at Pittsburgh (6-2), Pittsburgh favored by 3

One of the best rivalries in football takes the spotlight on Sunday night. Week 1 was a strange game for these teams, it wasn't competitive and Joe Flacco actually beat the Steelers. I think we are going to return to the norm in this game. Flacco and the Ravens were lucky that they played such an inept team in the Cardinals and were able to escape with a win. Its obvious that Flacco is another overrated quarterback, and is pretty much a glorified Trent Dilfer. The Ravens only hope of winning this game is Ray Rice. The Steelers defense has played much better in recent weeks, and the offense is really clicking. The Ravens benefited in the first game from all the turnovers Ben Roethlisberger committed but he and the passing game have been on fire the last few weeks. I love the Steelers in this one.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Baltimore 17

Monday, November 7

Chicago (4-3) at Philadelphia (3-4), Philadelphia favored by 8

The way the Eagles played last Sunday was the team I envisioned when I picked them to win the Super Bowl. Their offense was a juggernaut, the corners weren't allowing any separation, and the defensive front continued their stellar play. The word on the Eagles has completely flipped from the media and now they are declaring the Eagles Super Bowl contenders again. The Eagles have to keep playing with the urgency they have shown the last two weeks because if they don't the Bears can beat them. Jay Cutler figures to be running for his life as Trent Cole and Jason Babin could have huge games going up against a suspect Bears offensive line. I think the Bears defense can keep them in this game and will frustrate Vick and not allow LeSean McCoy to completely run over them. The Eagles rush defense has been much improved the last few weeks but will have their work cut out for them facing Matt Forte. I know it's a risk signing running backs to long term deals (see Chris Johnson) but Forte is also a great pass catcher. The Bears offense will be nothing if they let him walk. I expect a tense, low scoring game, with the Eagles escaping with their third straight victory.

Prediction: Philadelphia 21, Chicago 15

Last Week Straight Up: 8-5
Overall Straight Up: 76-40

Last Week Against the Spread: 3-10, ouch :(
Overall Against the Spread: 56-57-3

Cram Session - Week 10

We should all consider ourselves lucky. The Game of the Century has come with 89 years remaining in the century. In case you are too cool to have television or Internet, I am referring to this Saturday's game between #1 LSU and #2 Alabama. Both teams are undefeated and this game has been circled on the calendar of college football fans for months. I will go on record as saying the winner will end up being the national champion in January, while the loser will have to settle for another BCS Bowl. The hype has been unrivaled, now we just have to hope the game lives up to it.

Games That Matter to Me

Notre Dame (5-3) at Wake Forest (5-3)

There was talk of friction in the locker room after Brian Kelly threw his upperclassmen under the bus with some comments he made last week. That friction was taken out by the players on Navy last weekend, as the Irish got back to the roots of the rivalry, which was them always beating the crap out of the Midshipmen. Notre Dame now begins a three game ACC stretch where they will be favored in each game. This weekend's game against Wake Forest likely presents the biggest challenge of the three. The Demon Deacons can be a dangerous team at home, already knocking off Florida State earlier this season. However, since that win they have been less than impressive, getting blown out by Virginia Tech and North Carolina and barely defeating Duke. Wake Forest's biggest strength is their passing game led by QB Tanner Price. Price has 14 TDs and 6 INTs but is coming off a miserable game against the Tar Heels where he had three interceptions and zero touchdowns. His favorite target is WR Chris Givens who has had no less than six catches in every game this season. However, he is also coming off his worst game of the season, where his six catches earned him just 42 yards receiving. Wake Forest is 104th in the country in rushing yards so Notre Dame shouldn't have to worry about the ground attack too much. The Notre Dame pass defense has been weak at times so they will have to be on their game against Wake. The Demon Deacons defense is pretty atrocious, allowing 28 points per game. The Irish offense, led by Tommy Rees and Michael Floyd should be able to move the ball pretty handily. The Irish have been at their best when they are balanced so it is important that Cierre Wood gets going. I think Wake will hang around for a bit but the Irish are far more talented and will earn the win.

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Wake Forest 24

Northwestern (3-5, 1-4) at #10 Nebraska (7-1, 3-1)

It took 8 weeks but the Blackshirts defense finally showed themselves last weekend against Michigan State. The Spartans could get nothing going and the Huskers played their most complete defensive game of the season, despite being without their best player Jared Crick. The win vaulted the Huskers back into the Top 10 and right in the thick of things for earning a shot at the Big 10 championship game. The season will be defined by back to back road trips to Penn State and Michigan but before that the Huskers have to handle their business at home against Northwestern. Northwestern has a prolific, balanced offense, but plays little to no defense. QB Dan Persa was getting some Heisman hype before the season but then missed the first three games of the season due to injury. He finally got his first win as a starter last weekend against Indiana. Persa is very accurate and has great rapport with WRs Jeremy Ebert and Drake Dunsmore. The rushing attack of the Wildcats is led by Kain Colter who is also the backup quarterback. The Huskers rushing attack figures to dominate in this game, as Rex Burkhead has been on a tear. Burkhead had 35 carries against Michigan State and if that game plan is what works for Nebraska than so be it. Taylor Martinez is obviously somewhat of a liability throwing the ball and defenses know this. It shows the power of the Huskers running game that they still find success despite teams knowing what is coming. My only fear for this game is Nebraska looking ahead to their next two games or feeling too good about themselves after last weekend. I think Bo Pelini will have them ready though and they should romp.

Prediction: Nebraska 40, Northwestern 21


Top 10 - Saturday, November 5

#1 LSU (8-0, 5-0) at #2 Alabama (8-0, 5-0)

Usually it is the offenses that get all the publicity but with LSU and Alabama it really is all about the defenses. Alabama has allowed just 6.9 points per game this season, while LSU is second in the country giving up just 11.5 points per game. Those are truly incredible numbers. The Crimson Tide's best defensive players are LB Dont'a Hightower, FS Mark Barron, and CB Dre Kirkpatrick. While the Tigers boast studs such as Tyrann Mathieu, LB Ryan Baker, Morris Claiborne, Brandon Taylor, and Eric Reid. The most fascinating matchup to watch will be Alabama's stud running backs Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy against the Tigers defense which hasn't allowed anyone to run the ball all season. Alabama's biggest liability in this game is QB AJ McCarron who will be playing in the biggest game of his life. His presence doesn't really matter though if Richardson and Lacy are able to have success running. Much like the Tide, LSU finds most of its offensive success through running the ball. They go with a dual system between Spencer Ware and Michael Ford. They also go with the unconventional dual quarterback system. Jarrett Lee started the season alone with Jordan Jefferson suspended, but since Jefferson has returned he has been getting snaps behind center as well. Neither player is all that impressive and much like the Tide, any success the Tigers have on offense will come from running the ball.

There seems to be a lot of people on LSU to win and I don't really understand why. To me Alabama is better offensively and defensively, and the game will be in their backyard. I think the offenses will be able to find the end zone a few times but I will always take the better team, playing at home. LSU's best chance to win is if they can force McCarron into mistakes, but I think Richardson and Lacy will have enough success running that McCarron will only have to make throws to keep the Tigers defense honest. I like the Tide to win and cover the spread.

Prediction: Alabama 24, LSU 17

#14 Kansas State (7-1, 4-1) at #3 Oklahoma State (8-0, 5-0)

The feel good story of Kansas State took a nasty turn last weekend in second half against Oklahoma. The Sooners blitzed them for 35 unanswered points and ran away with a 58-17 victory. Things may get even worse in Stillwater this weekend as they now have to face the best quarterback and wide receiver combo in the game, Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon. This is the Cowboys last home game before the huge showdown with the Sooners on December 3rd.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 45, Kansas State 20

#4 Stanford (8-0, 6-0) at Oregon State (2-6, 2-3)

Unfortunately I was too busy being dressed as a one night stand to watch what sounded like a thrilling game between Stanford and USC. Andrew Luck only increased his God like status among quarterbacks, and I am waiting for the inevitable backlash to hit him like it did Tim Tebow. Stanford's game of the season comes next week when they host Oregon, but this week they get to beat up on the state school.

Prediction: Stanford 43, Oregon State 17

#5 Boise State (7-0, 2-0) at UNLV (2-5, 1-1)

The Broncos are lurking the background, waiting for teams to fall so they can possibly slip into the national championship game, or at worst a BCS bowl. This weekend will be a cake walk, it's next week where they face their only possible hurdle when they host TCU.

Prediction: Boise State 58, UNLV 14

Texas A&M (5-3, 3-2) at #6 Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1)

I wasn't buying the Aggies as a Top 10 team prior to the season and that belief has been proven true. However, if games were only a half the Aggies might be the number one team in the country. They suffered their third loss of the season last week against Missouri and in each of those losses they had leads at the half. The Sooners bounced back nicely from their loss against Texas Tech by wiping the floor with Kansas State. This should be a fun, back and forth game. The Aggies are good enough to keep it competitive but the Sooners will pull out the win.

Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Texas A&M 31

#9 South Carolina (7-1, 5-1) at #7 Arkansas (7-1, 3-1)

The other big game in the SEC this weekend, although no one outside of South Carolina or Arkansas will be watching as it goes up against LSU/Bama. The Gamecocks are winning with defense which is a must now that they are without Marcus Lattimore. The Razorbacks had their second straight road scare but once again were able to pull out the victory late. It will feel good for the Razorbacks to be back at home, and I expect more of a performance like we saw against Auburn than what we have seen the last two weeks. Without Lattimore, the Gamecocks don't have the horses to win in Fayetville.

Prediction: Arkansas 27, South Carolina 13

#8 Oregon (7-1, 5-0) at Washington (6-2, 4-1)

Oregon might be in the midst of a quarterback change. Darron Thomas has been battling injuries and when he was ineffective against Washington State last weekend he was pulled in favor of Bryan Bennett who played well down the stretch against the Cougars. LaMichael James also returned last weekend but struggled and it was Kenjon Barner that had the big day. James and Thomas have to get back to full health for the Ducks to have a chance to upset Stanford. The Huskies will present a challenge and if the Ducks don't have their full attention on them, they could be susceptible to an upset in Seattle. If the Huskies had any semblance of a defense I would pick them to pull the upset, but I can't envision them slowing down the Ducks offensive assault.

Prediction: Oregon 47, Washington 33

Last Week: 8-0
Overall: 79-7

The Hail Mary - Week 8

Last weekend featured a pretty uninspiring slate of games, but fortunately things improve a bit this weekend. The Steelers and Patriots renew their rivalry, although with how New England has dominated in recent years its not really much of a rivalry. Also, both prime time games are good. Dallas travels to Philadelphia in a crucial NFC East battle, and the Chiefs look to continue their resurrection at home against the Chargers. Oh yeah, it also is Halloween weekend so expect lots of crowd shots of people dressed up in random costumes. Yippie!

Week 8 - Sunday, October 30

Indianapolis (0-7) at Tennessee (3-3), Tennessee favored by 8 1/2

The Colts already dreadful season reached epically embarrassing depths last Sunday when they were blown out on national television by the Saints, 62-7. Fortunately, the Colts can only ruin two more prime time games, and one of those games, against the Patriots will likely be flexed out. The Titans were an early season surprise at 3-1 but have been blown out their last two games and the shine is officially off. Chris Johnson can't run the ball to save his life, and Matt Hasselbeck has reverted back to the quarterback the Seahawks were eager to part ways with. The Colts should be the perfect elixir for the Titans to get back to winning.

Prediction: Tennessee 28, Indianapolis 20

New Orleans (5-2) at St. Louis (0-6), New Orleans favored by 13

The Saints offense was on fire last Sunday night and the Saints get another chance to put up huge points when they face a winless team for the second week in a row. The Rams may be without QB Sam Bradford for a second straight game, not that him playing would help much. The only way this doesn't get ugly is if the Saints go into cruise control early.

Prediction: New Orleans 31, St. Louis 10

Miami (0-6) at New York Giants (4-2), New York Giants favored by 10

I have picked the Dolphins to cover the spread the last two weeks and was burned each time. Last weekend, they did it in spectacularly awful fashion, blowing a 15-0 lead in the final two minutes of the game, and adding to the legend of Tim Tebow. I don't have a ton of faith in the Giants, I mean they lost to the crappy Seahawks at home, but I can't pick Miami a third straight week.

Prediction: New York Giants 27, Miami 14

Minnesota (1-6) at Carolina (2-5), Carolina favored by 3 1/2

A rookie quarterback battle is the main attraction in this game. Vikings QB Christian Ponder showed flashes in his debut against Green Bay but also made mistakes you would expect from a rookie. He has to improve his accuracy, but I did like his ability to scramble and make plays. The Vikings have nothing but pride to play for the rest of the season, so ride it out with Ponder the last nine games and get an idea of what you have. The Panthers were smarter than everyone else when they held strong and picked Cam Newton. I had my doubts about Newton and his ability to throw the ball but he is light years ahead of someone like Tim Tebow, who many wanted to compare him to. The Panthers are definitely in that middle tier right now. They can compete with the best but aren't good enough yet to win. However, like they showed against the Redskins last weekend, they can beat mediocre to bad teams.

Prediction: Carolina 26, Minnesota 19

Arizona (1-5) at Baltimore (4-2), Baltimore favored by 13 1/2

I don't know what that was that the Ravens were trying to pass off as offense on Monday night but it was offensive. I hope John Clayton was watching so he can finally stop telling everyone that Joe Flacco is a good quarterback. Flacco is mediocre at best and always has been. The Ravens defense remains legit and to me is a huge surprise. I thought it was finally time to move on from the Ravens defense is great narrative but they have proven me wrong. The Ravens are the same as they ever were, awful on offense and carried by their defense. The Arizona Cardinals are in the midst of a tailspin and traveling across the country to Baltimore is not the recipe to get them back on track. Kevin Kolb is going to have a rough day.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Arizona 7

Jacksonville (2-5) at Houston (4-3), Houston favored by 9 1/2

The Jaguars are an awful offensive team but their defense has been showing up week after week. They may have to deal with the return of Andre Johnson this weekend. The Texans seemed left for dead with Johnson and Mario Williams out with injuries, but then crushed the Titans on the road and re-assumed control of the division. Blaine Gabbert has been completely underwhelming thus far but its hard to tell if that's more because his #1 receiver is some guy named Mike Thomas or if Gabbert just isn't very good. I was never that impressed with Gabbert in college, especially when he played Nebraska. The Jags defense will keep this close but the Texans will enter the halfway mark an encouraging 5-3.

Prediction: Houston 21, Jacksonville 13

Washington (3-3) "at" Buffalo (4-2) in Toronto, Canada, Buffalo favored by 6

If this game were in Buffalo I would pick the Bills to cover the six point line no question. Buffalo is a very tough place to win no matter what, and even harder when the Bills have a pretty good team like this season. After not feeling much of an injury bug for the first four games, players are dropping like flies now for the Redskins. The defense has been mostly unaffected but there is the possibility that LB London Fletcher could miss this game. The atmosphere in Toronto is less than intimidating and that is why I think the Skins can keep this close. However, I don't think they will be able to slow down Bills RB Fred Jackson, and I also expect WR Stevie Johnson to make some plays. John Beck will have some success but the Bills defense has been opportunistic and will likely force Beck into some interceptions. Beck looked awful to start the game against Carolina but seemed to find his comfort zone as the game went on. If the Redskins were healthier I might have picked them to pull off the upset, but they are too banged up on the offensive line and too inexperienced at quarterback to pull off the win.

Prediction: Buffalo 29, Washington 24

Detroit (5-2) at Denver (2-4), No Line

Matthew Stafford is questionable for the Lions, hence the reason this game is without a line. Tim Tebow makes his first home start of the season and will hope to avoid the clutches of Ndamukong Suh in this game. Suh continues to be called dirty and it is starting to get a little ridiculous to me. When did players in the NFL become such babies? Suh seems like he might have fit in better in the 70's when the Steelers were on steroids and the players were tougher. Even if the Lions have to go with Shaun Hill I like them to end their two game winning streak. Lions fans should be cautious though, the second half schedule is pretty daunting and I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions feel good story ends up being another non-playoff season.

Prediction: Detroit 23, Denver 16

New England (5-1) at Pittsburgh (5-2), New England favored by 3

I love this line and love the Patriots to cover it. The Steelers have never proven they can stop the Patriots when playing Tom Brady. He slices and dices their defense and dictates the course of the game with ease. I expect to see plenty of Brady to Wes Welker and Brady to Aaron Hernandez and budding porn star Rob Gronkowski. The Steelers offense will find success too but until the Steelers prove they can hang against the Patriots, it doesn't make sense to pick them to win, no matter where the game is played. Plus, the Steelers have beaten no one of note this season so while their 5-2 looks nice, it's not really legitimate.

Prediction: New England 35, Pittsburgh 24

Cleveland (3-3) at San Francisco (5-1), San Francisco favored by 8 1/2

It's weird to the 49ers favored by 8 1/2 in a game. I was pretty hesitant to take them to cover this line but then remembered that the Browns only scored 6 points at home last weekend against Seattle. I am a little worried about the Niners being rusty off the bye and also a little full of themselves after the hype they have been receiving. Hopefully, Harbaugh has kept that in check and keeps the Niners eyes on the prize. By time Sunday ends, they could be four games up in the division.

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Cleveland 17

Cincinnati (4-2) at Seattle (2-4), Cincinnati favored by 3

Seattle is a different team at home and Tarvaris Jackson may return and believe it or not has proven himself to be a considerable upgrade over Charlie Whitehurst. The Bengals are too young I think to go into Seattle and pull off the win. In fact the next two weeks will really tell us something about Cincinnati as they go to Tennessee next weekend. If they are as good as their record shows, those are games they should win, but I don't think the record tells the whole story with these Bengals.

Prediction: Seattle 20, Cincinnati 17

Dallas (3-3) at Philadelphia (2-4), Philadelphia favored by 3 1/2

The Eagles kept their season alive with a win against Washington two weeks ago and can really get themselves back into the NFC East race if they can knock off the Cowboys at home. Philly has yet to win a home game this year and dating back to last season has lost five games in a row at home. A statistic that works in their favor is that Andy Reid is 12-0 in the first game following a bye week in his career. These teams are very evenly matched and this game could really go either way. I think Michael Vick will make some plays like he always does and LeSean McCoy will find success running the ball. DeSean Jackson has always had the Cowboys number and I think he will find some success as well. The Eagles run defense will have to contain rookie sensation DeMarco Murray, and CB Asante Samuel needs to stop running his mouth and focus on coverage and picking off Tony Romo. I like the Eagles because of their success coming off a bye with Reid, as well as the fact that they have to win a home game eventually.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Dallas 21

Monday, October 31

San Diego (4-2) at Kansas City (3-3), San Diego favored by 3 1/2

A few weeks ago this looked like another Monday night snoozer, but the Chiefs have won three in a row and can be in a tie for first place with a victory Monday night. The Chiefs first showed signs of life when they gave the Chargers all they could handle in San Diego last month. They seemed to have found a running game with the emergence of Jackie Battle and that has taken some pressure off of Matt Cassel. As expected the Chargers blew a game against the Jets they should have won, which has been the story ever since Norv Turner has been the coach there. This game will be closer than it should, especially with how poorly Philip Rivers is playing right now, but the presence of Antonio Gates will be enough for the Chargers to get the victory.

Prediction: San Diego 23, Kansas City 21

Last Week Straight Up: 8-5
Overall Straight Up: 68-35

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-5-1
Overall Against the Spread: 53-47-3

Cram Session - Week 9

It was bound to happen sometime. College football finally went away from its chalkiness and because of that, I suffered my first incorrect picks in a month. Not even Texas Tech fans would have picked the Red Raiders to go into Norman and beat Choklahoma. Michigan State was down big early and looked to be proving me right about their fraudness, but then showed a lot of heart in making a comeback. As for Notre Dame losing to USC, I should have known better than to expect the Irish to maintain success.

Games That Matter to Me

Saturday, October 29

Navy (2-5) at Notre Dame (4-3)

Just as I was starting to feel good about the Irish, they went out and laid an egg in prime time against USC. They got down big early, a running theme at home this season, then when making a comeback, fumbled at the goal line and saw the Trojans run it back for a score, another running theme of the season. This team cannot handle success at all. Another problem is coach Brian Kelly likes to get way too cute with his play calling. When trailing 17-10 and driving to tie, Kelly puts in the third string quarterback to run a stupid draw. I'm all for trick plays but not when you are driving comfortably and looking to tie the game! To me that ruined the flow of the offense, and contributed to the disaster that was the next play. BCS hopes are dashed, and with most of the defense gone next season, it will probably be another trying year in 2012. Although, with how the defense has played the last few weeks, maybe all of them leaving is a good thing. This week, the Irish host a team that has had their number in recent years, the Midshipmen. Last season, Navy embarrassed the Irish 35-17, a shocking result to all college football fans. The Irish were completely befuddled by Navy's option offense and could do nothing to stop them. That was a strong Navy team last year, this year's squad is reeling, having lost five in a row. Much like Air Force, who the Irish crushed a few weeks ago, Navy will only throw the ball when they have to. They rely on QB Kriss Proctor and RB Alexander Teich to do the bulk of the running. Notre Dame had trouble slowing the Air Force offense but did create some turnovers. Where Notre Dame should have no problem finding success is on offense. The Falcons couldn't slow them down and Navy's defense shouldn't be able to either. Navy gives up an average of 30 points per game, including giving up 63 points to Southern Mississippi earlier this season. There is not a single player on the Midshipmen that can cover Michael Floyd. Cierre Wood completely disappeared from the game plan last week as soon as the Irish got behind. I would expect him to have a bounce back game and be a heavy part of the offense this week. There is absolutely no reason Notre Dame should lose to Navy this year. Avoid the sloppy early play and for the love of God stop turning the ball over in the red zone. If they do lose, I might have to strongly reconsider if I still want to go to FedEx to watch the Irish play the Twerps in a few weeks.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Navy 27

#11 Michigan State (6-1, 3-0) at #14 Nebraska (6-1, 2-1)

If the Spartans win at Lincoln they will basically have wrapped up the Legends division and secured their spot in the Big Ten (really 12) Championship game. The biggest key to this game is can the Spartans avoid a letdown after a very emotional victory against Wisconsin last weekend? The other question is, can the Spartans win a tough game on the road? They did win in Columbus but the Buckeyes are down this year, and in their other road game they were trounced by an average Notre Dame team. For Nebraska, can their offense do anything against a very good Michigan State defense? The Huskers are a one dimensional rushing team, and against lesser competition that hasn't mattered, but the Spartans will be the toughest defense they have faced this season. The Huskers struggled for three quarters against a very good Buckeyes defense and then turned it on in the fourth quarter. They can't get behind big in this game and expect to follow the same script. Taylor Martinez will have to make some plays throwing the ball. Rex Burkhead has been on a tear recently and will have to find ways to penetrate the stout Spartans defense. Also, the maligned Huskers defense will have to come up with a huge performance. Spartans QB Kirk Cousins had his best game of the season last weekend, so his confidence will be high. His favorite target is B.J. Cunningham who leads the team with 48 receptions, and is tied for the team lead with 3 TDs. The Spartans employ a two-headed rushing attack with Edwin Baker and Le'Veon Bell and they certainly could find some holes against Nebraska. I have gone back and forth all week on this game, I believe these are two evenly matched teams. Should be an exciting game, but I have to go homer and pick the Huskers.

Prediction: Nebraska 23, Michigan State 20


Top 10 - Saturday, October 29

Baylor (4-2, 1-2) at #3 Oklahoma State (7-0, 4-0)

The Cowboys are in the driver's seat to play for a national championship after the Sooners choked away their chance. The road won't be easy for the Cowboys as they still have to play three ranked teams in their final five games. However, the only one of those on the road is at Texas Tech. The Cowboys were impressive in their three touchdown road win at Missouri last weekend, overcoming the loss of Justin Blackmon and getting a great performance out of their defense. The defense will have its hands full this week against Robert Griffin III. If Griffin could play both offense and defense maybe the Bears would be able to win games against tough teams. This game should be a track meet but the Bears defense is not anywhere near the level of the Cowboys defense.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 50, Baylor 27

#5 Clemson (8-0, 5-0) at Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2)

People keep waiting for Clemson to stumble and they just keep winning. However, if any time is set up for them to have their stumble it might be this game. The Yellow Jackets don't look like a team ready to spring an upset, suffering back to back embarrassing losses to Virginia and Miami. However, those losses both came on the road. The Yellow Jackets are unbeaten at home and it should be a rowdy atmosphere as they get this game in prime time. The Tech offense has been dormant the last two weeks but the Tigers defense hasn't been able to stop anybody this season. Clemson has an incredible amount of offensive weapons but I don't think they can keep outscoring people. Eventually the offense will make mistakes and turnovers will be the difference in a loss. That nearly happened at Maryland a couple weeks ago but the Terps are awful so Clemson was able to escape. The Yellow Jackets are better and I think they will spring the upset.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 34, Clemson 28

#6 Stanford (7-0, 5-0) at USC (6-1, 3-1)

The Cardinal are the other national championship contender that faces a road test in prime time. No one has come close to Stanford all season and they easily dispatched the Huskies who were their first ranked opponent of the season. However, that game was at home, and this will be their first road challenge of the season. USC has a legit quarterback in Matt Barkley and surprisingly found a running game against Notre Dame. The question is, can their defense do enough to stop Andrew Luck as well as the killer ground attack that Stanford has, led by Stepfan Taylor. If the Trojans had a stronger defense I would consider picking them to pull the upset, but I don't think they have the horses capable of slowing down the Cardinal attack. It is amazing to think that in four years Stanford has gone from 40 point underdogs to the Trojans, to overwhelming favorites. Gotta love Jim Harbaugh.

Prediction: Stanford 38, USC 24

Washington State (3-4, 1-3) at #7 Oregon (6-1, 4-0)

There are still question marks surrounding whether QB Darron Thomas or RB LaMichael James will play. Chip Kelly doesn't think it matters and he would be right, as the Ducks haven't missed a beat without either. Washington State was looking slightly revitalized but then got their doors blown by off at home by an awful Oregon State team last week.

Prediction: Oregon 53, Washington State 14

#9 Oklahoma (6-1, 3-1) at #8 Kansas State (7-0, 4-0)

I should have seen it coming. I stopped myself from calling them Choklahoma but they lived up to their nickname last weekend, losing at home to Texas Tech. Now it will take a miracle for them to play for the national championship. However, they can still win the Big 12, that is if they can end the undefeated season of Kansas State on Saturday. The Wildcats have come out of nowhere, mostly because Bill Snyder might be one of the best college football coaches in history. Yes, that is not a typo, the job he has done not once but twice resurrecting Kansas State is remarkable. However, I think reality will set in this weekend. Kansas State has won despite its struggles on offense. The Sooners defense has looked vulnerable at times this year but I think they can feast on a limited offensive team. Landry Jones and the offense will find success and the Sooners will get back on track.

Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Kansas State 16

#10 Arkansas (6-1, 2-1) at Vanderbilt (4-3, 1-3)

The Razorbacks had way too much trouble at Ole Miss last week, having to come from 17-0 down to pull out the victory. Most people probably don't know that the Commodores are now quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers little brother, Jordan. Jordan struggled with his accuracy in his first start against Army last weekend, but was a threat running the ball, rushing for 96 yards and a touchdown. Arkansas will have their hands full on the road but I expect them to not be caught blindsided like they were last weekend.

Prediction: Arkansas 37, Vanderbilt 24

Last Week: 9-3
Overall: 71-7

The Hail Mary - Week 7

So I finally have a Sunday where nothing is planned. That means I can watch football uninterrupted, and not have to catch up on the DVR all day. That is all well and good until you look at this week's schedule. There are some decent 1:00 games but beyond that the slate is pretty awful. No really good 4/4:15 games, and the Sunday night and Monday night games are both atrocious. Oh well, I still will have a day of relaxation and football watching, only stopping for the occasional bite to eat, oh and laundry, probably some laundry going on.

Week 7 - Sunday, October 23

Seattle (2-3) at Cleveland (2-3), Cleveland favored by 3

The Madden Curse has once again proven itself to be an unstoppable force. Sure, Peyton Hillis was probably a one hit wonder anyways but he stood no chance against the cover of Madden. Browns QB Colt McCoy has a nice touchdown to interception ratio but he is completing just 55% of his passes. The Seahawks aren't sure which quarterback will be starting for them, Tavaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst. They almost make Rex Grossman and John Beck look like a murderer's row. If Jackson is too injured, Whitehurst will start. It's really of no consequence, the Seahawks aren't any better or worse off depending on the quarterback. They will grind out this win on the back of RB Marshawn Lynch.

Prediction: Seattle 22, Cleveland 19

Atlanta (3-3) at Detroit (5-1), Detroit favored by 3 1/2

So I was feeling sorta happy for the Lions after their fast start. They have been a down and out franchise for basically forever so it was cool to see them doing well. I don't feel so happy for them now, after finding out what a whiny, a-hole Jim Schwartz is. He prefers a dead fish handshake as opposed to a manly handshake. Any manly handshake causes him to lose his mind. It was funny to me that he thought Jim Harbaugh was too exuberant when he acts like a jackass on the sidelines all of the time. Look in the mirror Jim, just look in the mirror. The Lions are a mess at running back right now, and as Frank Gore showed last week, their run defense can be penetrated. I'm not too high on the Falcons, but I think the Lions being one dimensional on offense will hurt them, and Michael Turner can have the type of game Gore did.

Prediction: Atlanta 27, Detroit 23

Houston (3-3) at Tennessee (3-2), Tennessee favored by 3

There is rumblings that Texans WR Andre Johnson might return for this game. I think it's just wishful thinking and more than likely he will return for the Texans next game. They could certainly use him, especially their fraudtastic QB Matt Schaub. The Titans are coming off their bye and can really take control of the AFC South with a victory. The Titans are hoping Matt Hasselebeck didn't lose the fountain of youth during the bye. Along those lines, they are hoping Chris Johnson rediscovered it.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Houston 17

Denver (1-4) at Miami (0-5), Miami favored by 2

That was a pitiful performance the Dolphins put out on Monday Night Football. Tony Sparano should be put out of his misery, as this team has quit on him. The intriguing subplot to this game is Tim Tebow making his first start of the season. John Elway and John Fox are so insistent that he not succeed they traded away his best receiver for a bag of poop. The Dolphins are a terrible home team, but I don't see them going 0-16. They have to find a win somewhere and this is as good a place as any. Who knows, motivated by playing his former team Brandon Marshall might decide to actually score a touchdown.

Prediction: Miami 14, Denver 13

San Diego (4-1) at New York Jets (3-3), San Diego favored by 2

In a weekend of underwhelming games, this is the best one. Their are some good storylines for this game. LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Cromartie face their former team, and Rex Ryan stated the obvious, that Norv Turner is a terrible head coach, and that didn't sit well with ole Norvell. The Chargers have done something different and won some early season games, but in doing so, they have looked like crap and are a very unconvincing 4-1. The Jets ended their three game losing streak against Miami, but looked pretty inept and Jets fans are all still panicking. Most people will go with the Chargers but I haven't liked what I have seen out of San Diego all season. The Jets are 3-0 at home this season and I think they will play their best game of the season on Sunday and pull off the mini-upset.

Prediction: New York Jets 21, San Diego 17

Chicago (3-3) "at" Tampa Bay (4-2) in London, Chicago favored by 1

The annual London game pits Chicago and Tampa Bay, former NFC Central rivals. Tampa recovered well from the beat down the 49ers gave them, and knocked off the Saints at home. The Bears got to feel good for a night by playing a team even more hapless than them, the Vikings. If Tampa really was the home team I would pick them but this being a neutral field, I think the Bears are actually the better team. The Bears struggles come when teams have capable pass rushers, and the Bucs aren't very good at getting to the quarterback. I think Jay Cutler has a good game and the Bears win.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Tampa Bay 20

Washington (3-2) at Carolina (1-5), Carlina favored by 2 1/2

The John Beck era begins for the Redskins. In last week's Hail Mary, I said this:

"Rex throwing mostly leads to bad things."

Damn, I'm smart. Grossman was terrible, and all season has lived up to his career reputation as a turnover machine, so Mike Shanahan had no choice but to make the quarterback change. The local media is apoplectic and saying if John Beck fails that maybe the Shanahan era should end. That point of view is so stupid and short sighted. Sure, Shanahan said he would stake his reputation on Grossman and Beck. Did he need to go that far? No, but what do you want him to say? He had to at least make the appearance that he thought he could win with them. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Shanahan knows that Beck and Grossman are nothing but journeyman. He has improved the talent of the Skins in many positions, but this year his hands were tied. Their wasn't a quarterback they could get in the draft that was a franchise type guy so rather than reach for one, he chose to bide his time this year. It is my belief that next year, be it in the draft or trade Shanahan will get a quality quarterback. The Skins have a great chance of winning 8 games, which would be an improvement over last year. Skins fans and the media blast Dan Snyder for never being patient, but then if Shanahan wins 8 games this year, they will talk about how he is failing. They need to look at the big picture, Shanahan is starting from scratch and it takes time to build a consistent winner. If by next season the Skins are missing the playoffs for a third straight year, then the fans would be right to question what is going on. However, I believe the team is showing improvement and things are going in the right direction.

Now as far as the game this weekend, I don't like the Skins chances. The Panthers have been competitive all season and seem due for a victory. If the Redskins were relatively healthy on the offensive line I would pick them, even with Beck making his first start. But with the line being a mess, and trying to get a new quarterback in their, it is too much upheaval. While I think the Skins defense can force Newton into some mistakes, I think he will make enough big plays to counteract those mistakes, and the Panthers finally break through with a win.

Prediction: Carolina 23, Washington 17

Kansas City (2-3) at Oakland (4-2), Oakland favored by 3 1/2

The Raiders made big news this week by essentially ending Jason Campbell's career as an NFL starter. Campebell went down last weekend with a broken collarbone and rather than rely on Kyle Boller to get them to the playoffs, the Raiders overspent to trade for Carson Palmer. If they were getting the Carson Palmer from 2006 I would have understood the trade but Palmer has been mediocre ever since that season. He did have 26 TDs last season but he also had 20 INTs and makes some truly awful throws, which leads to him throwing a lot of pick sixes to the defense. Despite having sat on his couch all season, it is likely that Palmer will get the start. I don't expect Palmer to do much but I think the Raiders will still win because of Darren McFadden. He has had success against the Chiefs before, and after having been quiet for the past two weeks, I think he is due for a breakout game.

Prediction: Oakland 18, Kansas City 15

Pittsburgh (4-2) at Arizona (1-4), Pittsburgh favored by 3 1/2

It is a rematch of Super Bowl XLIII although the Cardinals are far removed from the team that played in that game. Kevin Kolb has struggled and the locals are already turning on him. The Steelers are 4-2 but remain underwhelming. They may make the playoffs merely because they are facing a weak schedule. One good sign for Pittsburgh was Rashard Mendenhall breaking out with a big game last weekend. He had been quiet all season, and with Ben Roethlisberger struggling somewhat, they needed the running game to get going to take some pressure off of him.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 17

St. Louis (0-5) at Dallas (2-3), Dallas favored by 13

The Cowboys got a great defensive effort but the offense couldn't convert their red zone opportunities into touchdowns against the Patriots and it ended up costing them. Now they get to host the NFL whipping boy, the Rams. The line is a little too steep for me to expect an average team like the Cowboys to cover, but the result will never seriously be in doubt.

Prediction: Dallas 24, St. Louis 13

Green Bay (6-0) at Minnesota (1-5), Green Bay favored by 8

Christian Ponder makes his first career start for the Vikings. The Vikings looked completely listless against the Bears and I think Donovan McNabb stopped caring about winning two years ago. He keeps saying he has football left in him, which may be true but its beyond obvious that he has no good football left in him. The Metrodome used to be a house of horror for the Packers but I don't expect it to present much of a challenge for them this season. QB Aaron Rodgers will be as precise as always and the Packers defense will harrass Ponder into a rough game.

Prediction: Green Bay 28, Minnesota 13

Indianapolis (0-6) at New Orleans (4-2), New Orleans favored by 14

Before the season and before it was known Peyton Manning wouldn't be playing this looked like a great game. Now, it features a winless Colts team that will be hoping to not be embarrassed in the Superdome. The Saints suffered a surprising loss last weekend and saw their coach get injured and have to undergo surgery last week. If the Saints don't blow out the Colts at home, some questions may have to start being asked about how legit New Orleans is. I think Drew Brees is going to have a field day picking apart the Colts defense and they will roll to a win, while the Colts continue their march to drafting Manning's successor, Andrew Luck.

Prediction: New Orleans 38, Indianapolis 17

Monday, October 24

Baltimore (4-1) at Jacksonville (1-5), Baltimore favored by 7 1/2

Booooooooooooooooooooring! Ravens games are already boring, put them against an awful team and you have found yourself the cure for insomnia. Why exactly did the Jags get two home, Monday night games? Everyone knew they would be terrible. Jacksonville doesn't even care about the Jags, why the hell would the rest of the country.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Jacksonville 9

Last Week Straight Up: 12-1 (Stupid New Orleans kept me from being perfect) Overall Straight Up: 60-30

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-7
Overall Against the Spread: 46-42-2