The Alley-Oop

I apologize to you, my loyal readers. I will not be able to provide the in-depth analysis you are used to as I have far too many things due on Monday at the job that gives me a paycheck. However, below you will still find predictions for all of the Top 25 games this weekend.

Saturday

#1 Pittsburgh (25-3, 12-3) at Seton Hall (15-12, 6-9)

Prediction: Pittsburgh 76, Seton Hall 67

Notre Dame (16-11, 7-8) at #2 Connecticut (26-2, 14-2)

Prediction: Connecticut 80, Notre Dame 70

#3 Oklahoma (25-3, 11-2) at Texas Tech (12-16, 2-11)

Prediction: Oklahoma 79, Texas Tech 77

Southern Miss (14-13, 4-9) at #4 Memphis (25-3, 13-0)

Prediction: Memphis 75, Southern Miss 51

Georgia Tech (10-16, 1-12) at #5 North Carolina (24-3, 10-3)

Prediction: North Carolina 92, Georgia Tech 73

#7 Duke (23-5, 9-4) at Virginia Tech (17-10, 7-6)

Prediction: Duke 78, Virginia Tech 75

#11 Arizona State (21-6, 10-5) at Washington State (15-13, 7-9)

Prediction: Washington State 63, Arizona State 59

Georgetown (14-12, 5-10) at #12 Villanova (23-5, 11-4)

Prediction: Villanova 77, Georgetown 65

#13 Clemson (22-5, 8-5) at #25 Florida State (21-7, 8-5)

Prediction: Florida State 75, Clemson 74

#14 Wake Forest (21-5, 8-5) at Virginia (9-15, 3-10)

Prediction: Wake Forest 83, Virginia 74

Ohio State (18-8, 8-7) at #16 Purdue (21-7, 10-5)

Prediction: Purdue 66, Ohio State 56

#17 Gonzaga (22-5, 13-0) at San Diego (15-14, 6-7)

Prediction: Gonzaga 68, San Diego 64

#18 LSU (24-4, 12-1) at Kentucky (19-9, 8-5)

Prediction: Kentucky 79, LSU 76

#19 UCLA (21-7, 10-5) at California (21-7, 10-5)

Prediction: California 70, UCLA 63

Arizona (18-10, 8-7) at #21 Washington (21-7, 12-4)

Prediction: Washington 88, Arizona 80

Cleveland State (21-9, 12-5) at #23 Butler (24-4, 14-3)

Prediction: Butler 63, Cleveland State 58

#24 Texas (19-8, 8-5) at Oklahoma State (18-9, 7-6)

Prediction: Oklahoma State 79, Texas 73

Sunday

#10 Marquette (23-5, 12-3) at #6 Louisville (22-5, 13-2)

Prediction: Louisville 82, Marquette 77

#8 Missouri (24-4, 11-2) at #15 Kansas (23-5, 12-1)

Prediction: Kansas 69, Missouri 66

#9 Michigan State (22-5, 12-3) at #20 Illinois (23-6, 11-5)

Prediction: Michigan State 60, Illinois 59

Record: 59-20

GMU What!?!?

Saturday

Towson (10-20, 5-12) at George Mason (19-9, 12-5)

George Mason closes the regular season with Senior night against a sorry Towson team. Four seniors will be celebrated, John Vaughan, Dre Smith, Daryl Monroe, and Chris Fleming. Of the four, only Vaughan has really made much of an impact. Smith played 3 seasons but has struggled shooting wise all three years, Monroe played 2 seasons for Mason and Fleming has been an infrequent contributor, mostly bench player in his 4 years.

With their unimpressive win over UNCW on Wednesday, Mason clinched at least a first round bye. Mason can finish the regular season no worse than fourth, and no better than second. When Mason wins (seriously, no chance they are losing at home to Towson), if Northeastern loses to Old Dominion then Mason will finish second. If Northeastern defeats ODU, then Mason will finish third no matter what. If Mason does somehow lose and ODU beats Northeastern then Mason will finish fourth. It would be nice to be able to potentially avoid VCU until the championship game, which getting a second or third seed would guarantee. VCU scares me much more than Northeastern does.

As for this game, Mason can finish the season undefeated at home with a win. They beat Towson earlier this year at Towson, 71-59. I really hope Mason routs Towson in this one like they should so they can feel good about themselves heading into the conference tournament next Saturday.

I think Vaughan, Monroe, and Smith will play one of their better games in the year, and exit the Patriot Center in style. I think Coach Jim Larranaga will give Fleming the start and even Flem will do some damage. I expect a great night of celebration and an impressive win headed into the make or break part of Mason's season.

Prediction: George Mason 75, Towson 53

GMU What!?!?

George Mason (18-9, 11-5) at UNC-Wilmington (7-22, 3-13)

Mason closes up their road schedule tonight at UNCW. This should be an easy win for Mason, but Mason has proved that nothing will come easy for them on the road. They have lost 5 in a row on the road, with their last road win coming against lowly William & Mary way back on January 14.

Mason destroyed UNCW in their first meeting, 101-60. Every Mason player scored in that game, with John Vaughan leading the way with 20 points.

Wilmington hasn't had much go their way this year. Usually tough to beat at home they are just 5-8. That being said, they did beat first place VCU at home so when sufficiently motivated they can hang with the best at home. Wilmington is led by guards Chad Tomko and Johnny Wolf, while F Dominique Lacy controls the inside. Wilmington has scorers, averaging a very good 71.8 points a game but they have been a sieve on defense, allowing 84.6 a game.

Mason has had its fair share of problems winning at Wilmington. Even when UNCW has had down years like this year, Mason hasn't been able to pull out a win. Their last win at Wilmington came in 2004 and they desperately need that streak to end tonight. The conference tournament starts in just 9 days and with a win tonight Mason can just about assure themselves a first round bye.

Despite their problems on the road Mason sits just one game behind first place VCU, and tied for second with fading Northeastern. VCU has a tough game tonight at James Madison, while Northeastern has a tough game at Drexel tonight and then at home against Old Dominion to close the season. Mason can't just worry about those two teams though because they are just a game ahead of Hofstra, ODU, and Drexel. A loss tonight could be disastrous if those teams win.

Mason needs to get this road hex removed before the conference tournament where they will exclusively play on the road. They can't go in like they did at Delaware and only have Daryl Monroe scoring, missing all of their 3 pointers and foul shots. That means Dre Smith should shoot as little as possible. I like Mason to win tonight, they won't let it be as easy as it should, but they will escape with a win.

Prediction: George Mason 78, UNC-Wilmington 72

The Week That Was

If that picture looks a little fuzzy it isn't because the AP hired a 7-year old to take the picture. It is because it is a live shot from Saturday's Maryland/North Carolina game at Comcast Center. For those that don't know today is my birthday and on Saturday my girlfriend surprised me with tickets to the game. I am a huge North Carolina fan and this was my first chance to see them live and in person.

Upon first finding out that I would be attending the game my excitement was slightly tempered by anxiety. Maryland fans don't have the best reputations and I planned on proudly wearing my North Carolina Michael Jordan jersey in enemy territory.

My hatred for Maryland basketball grew a few years ago when I was attending the BB&T Classic. George Mason was in the field as was Maryland. This was pre Final Four for Mason so no one really knew who we were at the time. Unfortunately for me I was sitting next to an obnoxious Maryland fan who took great joy in denigrating Mason for hours, while pumping up his Terps. There wasn't much I could say, Maryland was just a few years removed from a national title and Mason was just a lowly CAA school. I got some minor retribution later that night when Maryland lost to George Washington, but otherwise it was an argument I couldn't win.

The last few years the tide has shifted, Mason made their run to the Final Four and Maryland has become an almost yearly competitor in the NIT. I think of that guy often and how fun it would be to talk to him now about the state of the Maryland and Mason basketball programs.

I am getting off topic though, back to the game. As much as I would like to I can't hate on Comcast Center. It is a very nice building and the atmosphere for Saturday's game was off the charts. Our seats were near the top, which was fine, could see everything perfect, plus I was surrounded by Carolina fans. There was one Maryland fan sitting close to us and he despised Tyler Hansbrough. Every time Hansbrough screwed up, which was often in this game, he would go on and on about how Hansbrough won't be a good pro. I can't say I disagree with him but it really wasn't relevant to the game we were watching, as I really don't care whether Hansbrough is good or not in the NBA. Plus, I wanted to ask this Maryland fan how many current Maryland players were even going to make a pro team, but him being about 100 pounds heavier than me dissuaded me from that.

The first half went exactly as I hoped as Carolina pretty much dominated. I was nervous that Grievis Vasquez was having such a good game. As I pointed out in the Alley-Oop Friday, he had to have an amazing game for Maryland to have any chance. Vasquez scored their first sixteen points and it was a sign that Carolina would have no answer for him on this day.

In the second half the Tar Heels extended their lead to 16 and the Comcast Center was pretty dead. Maryland began cutting away at the lead but I never lost confidence that Carolina would hold on to win the game. Carolina was still up six with a minute to go when everything imploded for them. They started turning the ball over, rushed possessions for no reason, considering they were up and the clock was their friend at this point, and Vasquez couldn't miss from three point land. Before I knew it, the game was tied and we were going to overtime.

Maryland had all the momentum at that point and it was becoming increasingly obvious that they were going to spring the upset. Carolina didn't help themselves when down by one late, they allowed Maryland to take the clock from 35 to 11 seconds as Carolina seemed to be trying to foul one of Maryland's bad foul shooters. A good idea in theory but once it was obvious they weren't going to be able to do that, they should have just fouled anyone. It become even worse when they ended up fouling Vasquez anyway.

Down three, Carolina had one last chance to force a second overtime but couldn't get off a shot and their chance to be #1 in the nation evaporated. I sat there shell shocked, oblivious to the fact that a girl behind us, who was actually a pretty obnoxious Carolina fan, was getting into a fight with the Maryland fan I mentioned before. I hate to see Carolina lose, but losing to Maryland, at the one chance I had to see them live was an especially bitter pill to swallow.

All in all the Maryland fans I encountered weren't too bad. I actually didn't receive much grief from any of them, even after the loss, when frankly they had every right to give me crap. However, don't get me wrong, I still hate Maryland just as much.

On this one day the Terps were better. However, come March, when Carolina is a number one seed and the Terps are playing in the NIT, the sting of this loss won't hurt anymore.

The Alley-Oop

The ACC takes center stage this weekend. #3 North Carolina travels to Maryland, while Wake Forest travels to Duke, where the Dookies will be looking for revenge. Oklahoma will also look to get one more win so they can ensure themselves the top spot in the polls next week. Problem is, they have to go on the road to their hated rivals, Texas.

Saturday

South Florida (8-17, 3-10) at #1 Connecticut (24-2, 12-2)

UCONN will be losing their #1 spot on Monday, after their loss to Pittsburgh, but South Florida will provide a nice bounce back opponent.

Prediction: Connecticut 81, South Florida 60

#2 Oklahoma (25-1, 11-0) at Texas (17-8, 6-5)

Oklahoma has stayed under the radar just about all season. Blake Griffin has drawn plenty of attention but the team itself is not often brought up as a true national championship contender. Texas has been completely disappointing this year. This is ESPN's prime time game so the building will be electrified. G AJ Abrams and G-F Damion James will do their best but it won't be enough.

Prediction: Oklahoma 76, Texas 73

#3 North Carolina (24-2, 10-2) at Maryland (16-9, 5-6)

The Tar Heels are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, ripping off 10 straight wins. Maryland just got blasted by Clemson and it is beginning to look like another NIT year for the Terps. Carolina crushed Maryland in Chapel Hill about a month ago but I expect a better effort out of Maryland in front of their insane fans. This Carolina team is filled with experience and has a made a living out of winning in hostile buildings. There is just one key to beating Maryland, maintain Greivis Vasquez and hope the rest of their team plays to their mediocre talent level.

Prediction: North Carolina 88, Maryland 78

DePaul (8-18, 0-13) at #4 Pittsburgh (24-2, 11-2)

The Panthers are coming off a huge win at Connecticut where F DeJuan Blair became a national name after embarrassing Hasheem Thabeet. They will definitely feel a letdown playing the dregs of the league in DePaul, shouldn't be a problem.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 84, DePaul 63

#6 Memphis (23-3, 11-0) at UTEP (16-9, 7-4)

Memphis has won 53 straight games in Conference USA, an unbelievable streak, no matter how weak the competition is. UTEP should give them a slight challenge but they struggle far too much on defense, giving up 72.2 points a game, to spring the upset.

Prediction: Memphis 81, UTEP 71

#7 Louisville (20-5, 11-2) at Cincinnati (17-9, 7-6)

Last time Louisville hit the road they were blasted by Notre Dame by 33 points. Cincinnati is playing for their tournament lives and a win over Louisville might be enough to seal a berth for them. I'll call the upset.

Prediction: Cincinnati 71, Louisville 69

#10 Missouri (22-4, 9-2) at Colorado (9-16, 1-10)

The Tigers have been on fire and jumped all the way to tenth in the polls. They killed Colorado in the first meeting 107-62. The Buffaloes will have some extra motivation and it will be closer this time, but not enough to get the upset.

Prediction: Missouri 84, Colorado 62

#11 Marquette (22-4, 11-2) at Georgetown (14-10, 5-8)

The Hoyas have been a huge disappointment this year, especially after they earned impressive early season wins against Memphis and Connecticut. People are still saying they have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament but they better start winning some games. Marquette has dropped two in a row on the road, including an embarrassing loss at South Florida. Guards Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews will be too much for the Hoyas.

Prediction: Marquette 84, Georgetown 79

Washington State (13-13, 5-9) at #15 UCLA (20-6, 9-4)

UCLA just barely got by the Cougars in their visit to Pullman, but they are a completely different team at home. Bruins roll.

Prediction: UCLA 64, Washington State 53

Nebraska (16-8, 6-5) at #18 Kansas (21-5, 10-1)

The Cornhuskers are scratching and clawing their way into making the NCAA Tournament field, so they can finally win an NCAA Tournament game. Going to Kansas won't help their cause as the Jayhawks are 15-0 at home. The Jayhawks have a huge game against Oklahoma on Monday, but I believe coach Bill Self will have them focused.

Prediction: Kansas 75, Nebraska 56

#19 Washington (19-7, 10-4) at USC (16-9, 7-6)

The Huskies are in a five-way dog fight for the regular season Pac-10 crown. The Trojans are basically out of that race but still in contention for an NCAA Tournament berth. USC has dropped just one home game all season. Trojans guards Dwight Lewis and Daniel Hackett will need to slow down Huskies G Isaiah Thomas. The Huskies just aren't a good enough road team to win this one.

Prediction: USC 74, Washington 68

Pepperdine (8-19, 5-6) at #20 Gonzaga (20-5, 11-0)

The Zags have been demolishing conference opponents at home.

Prediction: Gonzaga 86, Pepperdine 60

Indiana (6-19, 1-12) at #21 Purdue (20-6, 9-4)

The battle of Indiana, without any of the luster of years past.

Prediction: Purdue 70, Indiana 55

#22 Butler (22-4) at Davidson (22-5)

Some BracketBuster goodness. Both these teams are strugg a ling. Davidson may be without superstar G Stephen Curry, which led to them getting demolished at home by The Citadel on Wednesday. Butler has dropped two in a row and is desperate for a win. This is a tough game to predict without knowing Curry's status but even if he does play I think he will be limited.

Prediction: Butler 65, Davidson 62

#23 Utah State (25-2) at St. Mary's (21-5)

Utah State suffered their first loss in the WAC last Saturday at Boise State, an upset I wanted to predict but was too wimpy to do so. St. Mary's is still without star guard Patrick Mills and has struggled without him, losing 4 of 7.

Prediction: Utah State 62, St. Mary's 60

Auburn (17-9, 6-5) at #24 LSU (22-4, 10-1)

Hey, look at that! I finally get to predict an SEC team, as one of their teams has finally made it into the Top 25. What a garbage conference.

Prediction: LSU 77, Auburn 65

Sunday

Wisconsin (17-9, 8-6) at #5 Michigan State (20-5, 10-3)

After losing six in a row and having a very rough start to Big 10 play, the Badgers have recovered to win five in a row and are in the driver's seat for an NCAA Tournament berth. Michigan State has had some curious home losses this year, and received a beat down at the hands of Purdue on Tuesday. I think the Badgers are catching the Spartans at the right time.

Prediction: Wisconsin 59, Michigan State 57

#8 Wake Forest (20-4, 7-4) at #9 Duke (21-5, 7-4)

Both teams, who despite recent struggles, have somehow stayed in the Top 10, meet in a rematch at Cameron. These two are in the midst of a huge log jam between second and fifth place. Wake took the first game, nearly blowing a double digit lead before getting a late basket to win 70-68. Duke is a much different team at home, their shooters, such as Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson shoot much better at home. Unfortunately, the Dookies will get their revenge.

Prediction: Duke 78, Wake Forest 70

Arizona (18-8, 8-5) at #11 Arizona State (20-5, 9-4)

Arizona will be playing their first game in 8 days, since crushing UCLA to extend their winning streak to 7 games. The Sun Devils come in hot as well, winners of 4 in a row. The Sun Devils took the first game in a low scoring affair 53-47. Much of the Wildcats winning streak has come at home, as they are a sorry 2-6 on the road. The Sun Devils end their winning streak on the back of G James Harden.

Prediction: Arizona State 64, Arizona 52

#13 Clemson (21-4, 7-4) at Georgia Tech (10-15, 1-11)

Clemson had a bad loss at Virginia last weekend, a loss to Georgia Tech would be even worse.

Prediction: Clemson 77, Georgia Tech 72

#14 Villanova (21-5, 9-4) at #25 Syracuse (19-7, 7-6)

Villanova crushed Syracuse in the first game, as the Cuse decided to play no defense, and lost 102-85. However, the Wildcats have had problems beating good teams on the road in Big East play, including getting trounced at West Virginia last Friday. I like Devendorf, Flynn and the Cuse in this one.

Prediction: Syracuse 87, Villanova 81

#16 Illinois (21-6, 9-5) at Ohio State (17-7, 7-6)

Illinois had an embarrassing performance their last time out against Penn State. They held the Nittany Lions to 38 points, but that wasn't enough to earn a win, as they only scored 33. The Buckeyes have dropped two in a row, both of those losses coming on the road. I think Illinois will break 40 this time, but alas they will lose again.

Prediction: Ohio State 45, Illinois 41

George Washington (8-15, 2-9) at #17 Xavier (21-5, 9-3)

George Washington has fallen hard and fast. They did earn a blowout win over St. Bonaventure in their last game, while the Musketeers were upset by Charlotte. I sense a reversal of fortunes in this one.

Prediction: Xavier 75, George Washington 58

Record: 43-11

GMU What!?!?

Saturday

George Mason (18-8) at Creighton (22-6)

It is the mid-majors time to shine as George Mason travels to Nebraska to take on the Missouri Valley's Creighton Bluejays in the annual BracketBusters.

The Bluejays enter this game on a roll, winners of 7 straight. They have slight at-large hopes but mostly likely will have to win the Missouri Valley, where they are currently tied for first with Northern Iowa. The Bluejays are 13-2 at home and are led by their guards Booker Woodfox and P'Allen Stinnett. Daryl Monroe, Louis Birdsong, Mike Morrison, and Ryan Pearson will have to deal with G-F Justin Carter and C Kenny Lawson Jr.

Creighton can score with the best of them, averaging 75.1 points per game. Their defense isn't bad, giving up 65.4 points a game. Mason will have to play their best defense possible to have any chance in this game.

Honestly, Mason will have to play their best game of the season. They have lost 5 in a row on the road and that has mostly been at less than hostile arenas in the CAA. I am guessing the Bluejays will have a packed house tomorrow night, something Mason hasn't seen much of on the road this year.

In the grand scheme of things this game doesn't mean anything to Mason. They have no shot at an at-large bid, the story of their season will be written in the CAA Tournament. However, confidence wise, a win at Creighton would be huge as it would take the lift of the road losing streak off of Mason's shoulders. I just don't see it happening.

Prediction: Creighton 74, George Mason 67

GMU What!?!?

Drexel (14-10, 10-5) at George Mason (17-8, 10-5)

This is a huge game for Mason. As I have said before Mason's goal for the remainder of the year is to finish in the top 4 in the CAA. That would guarantee them a first round bye in the CAA Tournament and give them one less day they would have to play to win the championship. Mason enters this game in third, tied with their opponent for tonight, the Drexel Dragons. The loser of this game will fall to fourth and possibly further, with three teams (ODU, JMU, and Hofstra) sitting just a game back of these two.

This is the rematch from their game against each other in early December. Looking back now based on how the season has transpired, it is amazing that Mason went to Drexel and won. Imagine that, beating a quality team on the road. It was a tight game that came right down to the buzzer, as Mason survived with a 56-55 win. Mason won the game on the back of its defense, as their leading scorers on offense were Cam Long, John Vaughan, and Daryl Monroe, each with just 9 points.

Like most CAA teams Drexel is guard heavy. They are led in scoring by G Scott Rodgers, averaging 13.5 points a game. They are similar to Mason in how balanced they are on the offensive end. G Gerald Colds, G Tremayne Hawthorne, G Jamie Harris, and F Evan Neisler all average at least 8 points a game. The Dragons struggle to score and if Mason can jump on them early, like they did with Hofstra a few weeks ago, it could get ugly for the Dragons.

In the first game, Mason held Drexel to just 2-12 shooting from the 3 point line. It has become apparent that when Mason can guard the three well, they win. Although the win over Northeastern on Saturday righted the ship somewhat for Mason, Drexel comes into this one with more confidence. They have won 9 of 11 and beat first place Northeastern on the road in their last road game.

I have incorrectly predicted three straight Mason games, showing just how hard they are to figure out. Mason is now 12-0 at home and although I am nervous about jinxing them, I believe they get a key win tonight.

Prediction: George Mason 63, Drexel 54