CBH Sports

The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships

2012-01-19T10:09:00.014-05:00

I thought last week was stressful to watch but I have a feeling the NFC Championship game this Sunday against the Giants will be even worse for me as a fan of the 49ers. The up and down thrill ride that the game against the Saints was is something I don't think I have ever experienced in my life. However, if a game were to approach that level, it would have to be when the Giants and 49ers met in 2003. The Giants raced out to a 38-14 lead at Candlestick, but then Jeff Garcia led the 49ers back to a 39-38 victory. Yeah, there maybe should have been a pass interference called on the 49ers the last play of the game but there wasn't, so whatevs. There is another game before this, the AFC Championship between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens. This was the game I expected to see before the playoffs began and even then I was struggling in my head about who I would pick to win the game. I still am not quite sure about my pick but its Friday and I have a deadline that my tens of readers expect me to stick to so I'm forging ahead.

AFC Championship: Baltimore (13-4) at New England (14-3), New England favored by 7

The Patriots destroyed Denver last weekend in not much of a surprise, while the Ravens did what they do best, win ugly, when they defeated the Texans. These teams are equally matched because each has a major advantage on one side of the ball. The Patriots are far and away a better offensive team than Baltimore, while the Ravens defense is clearly superior to the Patriots defense. Most of the talk for this game has centered around Ravens QB Joe Flacco and his less than stellar performances. It seems that finally people are catching on to the fact that Flacco is mediocre at best. Flacco seems to bristle at the fact that people overlook him and give all the credit to the defense, but he has a great chance to shut those critics up this weekend. The Patriots defense is laughably bad, and just because they were able to shut down Denver, I don't think they are all of the sudden any good. The Ravens offense stalled against the Texans because they couldn't get Ray Rice going. When these two teams met in the playoffs two years ago Rice memorably opened the game with a huge touchdown run and the Ravens never looked back. Rice has to be fed the ball on a consistent basis and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has to show the patience to stick with the running game. If Rice can get going, then Flacco has a chance to hit Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith with some deep balls. Defensively, the Ravens have been very good this season but have struggled to get pressure on the quarterback in recent weeks. It is imperative they do that this weekend because Tom Brady is the best in the game and will completely burn you if he is allowed to be a statue in the pocket. Haloti Ngata, and the rest of the defensive front will need to make their presence felt. The linebacking corps has to be ready to try to slow down TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The biggest difference between the game two years ago and this one is that the Patriots didn't have those two weapons back then. Hernandez was featured as a running back last week, while Gronkowski continued to look unstoppable in coverage. If the Ravens can't limit their touches, they have no shot at winning.

Fortunately for the Ravens, their defense shouldn't have to worry too much about the Patriots running game. The Patriots are running back by committee and while their backs can gash bad teams, I don't expect them to be much of a factor against Baltimore. The Ravens did struggle against Arian Foster last weekend, but BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley, and Danny Woodhead combined aren't as good as Foster. The difference in this game might just come down to special teams. According to the stat geeks at Football Outsiders the Patriots were 5th in special teams rankings during the season, while the Ravens were a dreadful 30th. Both teams have reliable field goal kickers that can make pressure kicks. I have had a hell of a time picking this game. The line is way too high to me so I have no doubt the Ravens will cover, but picking them to win has been tough. I worry about the Ravens ability to slow Gronkowski and Hernandez but I keep coming back to how putrid the Patriots defense is. Plus, the Patriots haven't beaten a team with a winning record all season. The Ravens have been on the doorstep for years now and I think this is finally when they push through and reach the Super Bowl.

Prediction: Baltimore 23, New England 20

NFC Championship: New York Giants (11-7) at San Francisco (14-3), San Francisco favored by 2 1/2

All year it seemed destined that if the 49ers made it to the NFC Championship they would have to find a way to win at Lambeau Field. Instead, the Giants blew the doors off of the Packers and now the 49ers get to host their first NFC Championship since 1997. The Giants come in red hot, having won four games in a row. They have become a completely different team the last month as both their running game and defenses have emerged as forces. The public loves the Giants and feels we are seeing deja vu from when they made their run from out of nowhere in 2008. In my mind we are seeing deja vu, but that deja vu is from last week. The Saints came into San Francisco firing on all cylinders, having won nine in a row. The public loved them to beat the 49ers, because everyone outside of 49ers fans saw San Francisco as a flukey team from a bad division. The public saw the real side of the 49ers last week, a resilient group that wins because they play well in all phases. The defense was lit up more than I would have expected but they still forced five turnovers, which played a huge role in the win. Most surprisingly, Alex Smith was able to lead the 49ers down the field in crunch time. However, that shouldn't have been as much as a surprise as it was, because it was on the back of Smith that the Niners defeated the Giants in their first meeting this season. The Giants knocked Frank Gore out of the game early and without him the 49ers were unable to run the ball. Smith still was able to be productive passing the ball, including hitting Vernon Davis for a game changing touchdown. People will rightly say that clearly Eli Manning is a better quarterback but at least this season Smith seems much better at avoiding mistakes. The 49ers have the best turnover differential in the league because Smith has avoided costly interceptions and mistakes. They also have the hardest hitting defense in the league, and a defense that I think can slow down a potent Giants offense. The Giants didn't have Ahmad Bradshaw in the first game, and to me he is a much greater threat than overrated Brandon Jacobs. Still, I am not too concerned because the 49ers have been stone walls against the run all season. The pressure will be on the 49ers corners to slow down Hakeem Nicks, who has been a beast in the playoffs, as well as Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham. A lot of help will come if the 49ers continue to create pressure like they have all season with Justin and Aldon Smith. The Giants don't have a big playmaker at TE like the Saints did, so that will make things easier for Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman, and Ahmad Brooks.

I wasn't thrilled with the Niners commitment to running the ball last weekend, as Gore only had 13 carries. He was struggling but I feel like that was because he was never allowed to get in a rhythm. Late in the game he was able to bust a big run and that is what he can do if the 49ers are patient with him. They don't want to get into a passing contest with New York, especially with how well the Giants front four is playing right now. It will be huge if the 49ers can be effective running the ball. I also want to see Michael Crabtree play much better. He did have a touchdown last week but had at least three drops and looked pretty bad out there. I believe this game will come down to turnovers and whoever wins that battle. The 49ers have been winning it all year and I expect them to this weekend. I really believe the 49ers time is now, and we are destined to see Harbowl II, this time for all the marbles.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, New York Giants 17

Last Week Straight Up: 3-1
Overall Straight Up: 166-98

Last Week Against the Spread: 1-3
Overall Against the Spread: 131-126-7

The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round

2012-01-12T10:50:00.019-05:00

My ability to really enjoy Divisional round weekend will be determined by about 8 PM eastern. If the 49ers defeat the Saints I will be riding a high I haven't felt in close to a decade. However, if the 49ers lose, it will be tough to get too excited for the three remaining games. Some of that also has to do with the fact that Niners/Saints is clearly the game of the weekend. Two teams with a combined record of 27-6 facing off has much more appeal to me than a primetime game between the Patriots and the Broncos, who weren't even over .500 last week. Sunday, it will be the Texans and third stringer T.J. Yates traveling to Baltimore where the Ravens didn't lose a game this season. That will be followed up by the New York Giants heading to Lambeau Field to try to knock off the best team in football, the Packers.

NFC Divisional Round: New Orleans (14-3) at San Francisco (13-3), New Orleans favored by 3

If anyone could ever pull out the nobody believes in us card it would be the 49ers. After the Saints got done destroying the Lions last weekend, many people were already penciling in Saints/Packers for the NFC Championship. That is the game all the casual fans want to see because it will means lots of points and excitement. As a 49ers fan, the thought of that game sickens me. It would be vastly more entertaining to me to watch the 49ers try to slow down powerful offenses in back to back weeks. For the last few weeks of the season the Niners were in a dog fight trying to hold off New Orleans for the 2 seed. If this game were in New Orleans I would not have near the confidence I have that San Francisco can slow down the Saints juggernaut. It can't be denied that the Saints and especially their offense are near unstoppable in the Superdome. But the road has been a different story for Drew Brees and company. All three of their losses came on the road this season, and two of them were to the sorry Tampa Bay Bucs and St. Louis Rams. In those losses the Saints managed just 20 and 21 points against terrible defenses. How will they do when going up against a ferocious defense like San Francisco's? People like to tout the Saints running game featuring Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Ivory and how it makes the Saints more than a one dimensional offense. They are very talented, but they haven't faced the number one rush defense in football, which hadn't allowed a rushing touchdown until Week 16. The 49ers aren't slouches against the pass either, with Carlos Rogers back there, as well as having the good fortune to be able to call on Navarro Bowman, or Patrick Willis to cover Saints star TE Jimmy Graham. It will be a fun battle to watch up front between the Saints offensive line, with its three Pro Bowlers, and the Niners defensive line with Justin and Aldon Smith. No one is talking about the 49ers offense and they did have their share of struggles this season. Alex Smith performed much better but he still is nothing more than a game manager. However, he does have weapons in WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis. If those two have big games that will just be a bonus because the pressure is on RB Frank Gore to come up big. Gore has to run well for San Francisco to have a chance. The key to slowing down the Saints offense? It is quite simple, ball control. If you can run the ball successfully that will limit the opportunities Brees and guys like Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem will have. I'm not delusional, I know a lot has to go right for San Francisco to win this game. I have a lot of confidence in them and they have given me good reason. They are well coached, they run the ball, and they play good defense. Those attributes have won many teams championships, and I think it can do so again. I think the defense will play very well and force turnovers. I think the offense will be able to turn those turnovers into touchdowns. This cannot turn into a David Akers field goal fest like a lot of the 49ers games were. I think come 8:00 I will be a very happy man.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, New Orleans 21

AFC Divisional Round: Denver (9-8) at New England (13-3), New England favored by 13 1/2

It is Tebow vs. Brady II, or Broncos vs. Patriots, but honestly people care about this because of Tim Tebow and Tom Brady. The Patriots destroyed Denver a month ago in Denver and people trying to come up with reasons why Denver can win this game are grasping. The most popular grasp is that Denver was leading New England in that game before they got the turnover bug. That is true, but in my mind that just sped up the inevitable. The Patriots have seen a complete turnaround in their playoff fortunes the last few years and it hasn't been good. It used to be you never expected to see Belichick or Brady lose in the playoffs, now you never see them win. The Patriots have lost their last three playoff games, and their last two losses were at home. Maybe more than any other reason that is why I am so confident that they get off the schneid this weekend. Belichick and Brady losing three playoff home games in a row? It just doesn't seem possible. It also helps that Broncos are just 9-8 and more a lucky team, than a good team. The Patriots defense is a sieve and can be scored on but Denver is just as inconsistent on offense. Their running game is their strength but even when that is clicking if the passing game is non-existent the offense will still struggle. For whatever reason the last two weeks the Patriots spotted both the Dolphins and the Bills big leads before turning on the jets and running away with both games. I don't think that will happen Saturday. For one, I don't think Denver is capable of running out to a big lead, and secondly, Tom Brady will likely be at his precise best in this game. I expect to see a Brady performance where he maybe throws five incompletions. The Broncos had a hell of a time with TE Aaron Hernandez last time and with them keying in on him, I think the other all world TE Rob Gronkowski will have a big game. I am not crazy enough to actually bet against the Broncos, so I like them to get a backdoor cover, but I expect the Patriots to control this game from start to finish.

Prediction: New England 30, Denver 17

AFC Divisional Round: Houston (11-6) at Baltimore (12-4), Baltimore favored by 7 1/2

This is the game I am least looking forward to. I have never much liked watching the Ravens play, and with the Texans down to a third string quarterback, offense for them will likely be limited. They did put up 31 points on Cincinnati last week, but that was due to a collection of Cincinnati turnovers and the Bengals defense not knowing how to tackle Arian Foster. The Ravens will be able to do much better with monsters like Haloti Ngata and Terrence Cody up front. If Foster breaks that wall then he has to deal with Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis and underrated Jarret Johnson. T.J. Yates has been serviceable for the Texans but it has helped that Foster and Ben Tate have been able to do the heavy lifting. If they are slowed down, which I think they will be, this game will get ugly. I expect to see Yates taking a lot of sacks and turning the ball over. Yates will have a valid excuse, he is a rookie, but Joe Flacco doesn't have the same excuses. Flacco has struggled with accuracy and holding on to the ball over his career. I think the Ravens have tried to make themselves believe he is a franchise quarterback but he has never really shown it. I don't think he will have a banner day against a tough Houston defense, but I do think that Ray Rice will get the bulk of the touches and will rush for over 100 yards. The only way the Ravens lose this game is if offensive coordinator Cam Cameron gets silly and becomes pass happy. He has done that in the past, but someone, namely John Harbaugh, needs to smack him upside the head and remind him that Rice is far and away their best player on offense. It also can't be overlooked just how good Baltimore is at home. They have won 18 of their past 19 games at M&T Bank Stadium. They feed off their crowd's energy and I don't think the Texans have the horses necessary to win on the road.

Prediction: Baltimore 21, Houston 9

NFC Divisional Round: New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay (15-1), Green Bay favored by 7 1/2

Everyone is back on the Giants bandwagon. People love to jump on the Giants bandwagon, they could have three or four bad performances but if they have a good one, people immediately forget about the bad ones and declare the Giants dangerous. This isn't 2007 people. The Giants aren't playing a Cowboys team that would have rather vacationed then prepare for a playoff game. They are traveling to Lambeau Field to face a juggernaut. People like to point to the fact the Giants played Green Bay close in the regular season but that game was in New York. I more like to think about last season, when New York went to Green Bay and lost 45-17 and were torched by Aaron Rodgers. The Giants have won four of their last five but if you look at who they beat it was a bunch of mediocre to slightly good teams. The Packers are so far above the Cowboys, Jets, and Falcons that you can't even compare the talent levels. The Giants have been winning lately because their running game finally has a pulse. I still tend to think their rushing attack is more the variety we saw all season, last in the NFL, then the one that pounded the Falcons last weekend. I foolishly believed in the playoff choking duo of Matt Ryan and coach Mike Smith to take advantage of the Giants deficiencies on defense. I know I will not feel foolish believing in Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy to march up and down the field on the Giants. The Giants do have a fearsome pass rush with Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre Paul and Osi Umeniyora, but the Packers will be fully healthy at offensive line for the first time in weeks and up to the challenge. With Greg Jennings returning to complement Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Jermichael Finley, the Packers just have too many weapons. Eli Manning and the Giants offense can score with the best of them, but bad Eli strikes at times and turns the ball over too much. I think we will see a lot of Manning Face and Manning shoulder shrug in this game. It will take a very good defense to beat the Packers and the Giants defense doesn't fit that bill.

Prediction: Green Bay 38, New York Giants 21

Last Week Straight Up: 2-2
Overall Straight Up: 163-97

Last Week Against the Spread: 3-1
Overall Against the Spread: 130-123-7

Cram Session (Bowl Edition) - 2012 BCS Championship

2012-01-09T10:39:00.006-05:00

BCS National Championship Game

#1 LSU (13-0) vs. #2 Alabama (11-1) in New Orleans, Louisiana

The buzz surrounding this game is minimal. It is funny that their meeting in November that ended up essentially being meaningless received more hype than this game, that will decide the national champion. LSU and Alabama underwhelmed when they played in the Game of the Century two months ago and because of that most of America is bracing themselves for a boring, field goal fest. I didn't find the game boring two months ago but it definitely didn't leave me clamoring to see it again. Based on resume Oklahoma State deserved to be in this game more than Alabama, but I think it is clear that these are the two best teams in the country.

The offenses are incidental in this game, it will be won or lost by the defenses. Alabama finished number one in defense, LSU a close second. The most points Alabama allowed this season was 21, to believe it or not, Georgia Southern. The star players on the defense are their linebackers Courtney Upshaw (8 sacks) and Dont'a Hightower, who led the team in tackles with 81. In the first meeting Alabama allowed just 239 yards, just 91 of those yards through and forced 2 LSU interceptions. What came back to bite the Tide was their inability to hit field goals. They missed three and had one blocked. It could come back to bite them again tonight, as it is expected this will be another close one. Cade Foster and Jeremy Shelley shared duties last time but Foster is the usual starter and should be the one kicking them this game. Alabama was unable to get RB Trent Richardson really going last game, he was held to 89 yards on 23 carries. That put more pressure on QB AJ McCarron than the Tide would have liked, as he was forced to throw it 28 times. WR Marquis Maze was able to find some holes in the Tigers secondary and will be the go to option for McCarron tonight.

As for the Tigers, their all world defense is led by the Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu. It isn't just defense where Mathieu is dangerous though, he is even scarier as a punt returner. In his last two games he returned punts for scores against Arkansas and then Georgia in the SEC championship. His fellow first team All-American, Morris Claiborne is no slouch either. He had an interception against Alabama in the first meeting and finished with 6 on the season. On the defensive line, the Tigers have ferocious pass rushers Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo. On offense, the quarterback situation was muddled in the first game, but Jordan Jefferson has emerged as the starter since then. Jarrett Lee started the last game and had two interceptions before being yanked for Jefferson. Jefferson avoided any mistakes and did what was needed to win a tight ballgame. He also was somewhat effective on the ground, which was key because Spencer Ware was held to 29 yards on 16 carries. Michael Ford finished as the Tigers leading rusher and I expect him to get more than the 11 carries he got last game. He averaged 6.5 yards per carry against the Tide and Les Miles should be more apt to feed him the ball this game. Leading receiver Rueben Randle had just 2 catches for 19 yards against Alabama,. so the Tigers are hoping to get much more production out of him and the passing game in general.

The question surrounding this game is whether the month off will have any effect on the domination of the defenses. Both teams have talked about how chances were left on the table last game and this game has a chance to play out much differently. I just don't see it. Neither team will suddenly forget to play defense, and neither team is all that great offensively to be able to exploit the others defense. I do think we will see touchdowns this time but not many. I expect LSU to win the turnover battle and for that to end up being the difference in the game. I predict LSU will win the touchdown battle two to one, and the Honey Badger will be named the game's MVP. The win will make the Tigers the undisputed champion. If Alabama wins and it is close, all hell could break loose, and we could be seeing another split champion if the AP pollsters decide to go that route.

Prediction: LSU 17, Alabama 13

Overall Record: 118-23

The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round

2012-01-05T13:32:00.013-05:00

It is a bittersweet time for football fans. On one hand we are excited about the playoffs and watching them unfold over the next month. But on the other, it means there are just 11 games left this season, before football goes into hibernation for seven months. As fans we will cross that bridge when we come to it, but for now lets enjoy the ride. The Wild Card round is mixed between some familiar faces and some newcomers looking to crash the party. The Bengals and Texans face off for the right to be huge underdogs in the Divisional round, while the Lions are in the playoffs for the first time since 1999 and get the unenviable task of trying to win at New Orleans. The Giants are back in the playoffs after a two year absence, hosting the Falcons and Matt Ryan, who will be trying to earn his first playoff victory. In the finale, Tim Tebow tries to recapture the magic of a month ago and somehow slay the monster that is the Steelers defense.

AFC Wild Card: Cincinnati (9-7) at Houston (10-6), Houston favored by 3

Both teams come limping into the playoffs. The Bengals went just 3-5 in the second half of the season and only beat one team with a winning record this season. Their rookie quarterback, the Red Rocket, Andy Dalton, has been dealing with flu like symptoms this week and it is unclear how well he will be feeling come game time. The Texans have lost three in a row, and rookie quarterback T.J. Yates hasn't thrown a touchdown in three weeks. Despite all that, Houston will still be rocking as they host the franchise's first ever playoff game. The Bengals surpassed everyone's expectations and it was largely on the backs of Dalton and fellow rookie WR A.J. Green. The Bengals have a rushing attack with Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott but it is pretty plodding and they tend to get most of their yards just through sheer volume of attempts. Defensively, the Bengals have been strong all season, ranking in the top 10 in both rushing and passing yards allowed. The Texans have become a power running team, with a terrific two headed monster in Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Tate was just 58 yards short of giving the Texans two 1,000 yard rushers. With the Texans down their third string quarterback and star WR Andre Johnson hurting for most of the season, the success of Foster and Tate is what carried Houston to the playoffs. Another major factor was the rapid improvement of their defense. Despite not having Mario Williams for most of the year, The Texans finished third in passing yards allowed per game, and fourth in rushing yards allowed. This is a rematch from a month ago, when Houston came from 19-3 behind in Cincinnati to win 20-19 on a last second touchdown. I think this game will be another close, defensive dominated game. I think home field will be the difference, and the crowd will give the Texans the lift they need to earn their first playoff win in franchise history. A loss will mean Cincinnati still hasn't won a playoff game since 1991, but with Dalton and Green, the future is bright.

Prediction: Houston 18, Cincinnati 14

NFC Wild Card: Detroit (10-6) at New Orleans (13-3), New Orleans favored by 11

There is little doubt that this will be the highest scoring game of Wild Card weekend. The Lions get a second shot at the Saints, and will try to avenge their Week 13, 31-17 loss. The Lions had more yardage than the Saints in that game but were undone by a multitude of stupid penalties. They were also without Ndamukong Suh, who was suspended. He hasn't received much attention but Matthew Stafford had an amazing year. Finally healthy for a full season Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards and had 41 TDs. He did have 16 INTs which he needs to cut down on, but still, awesome year, and in any other season an MVP type of year. He can expect to have a big game against New Orleans, who was 30th in the league against the pass. Some say that Stafford's numbers are inflated because he can throw the ball up in the air and no matter what Calvin Johnson will go get it. Stafford's second favorite target is TE Brandon Pettigrew who the quietest 83 catches I think I have ever heard of. The Lions pass the ball so much because they do it well and also because their running game is pretty non-existent. Their leading rusher this season was Jahvid Best with 390 yards and he didn't even play in the last in the last 10 games. Kevin Smith eventually took over late in the year and aside from a big game against Carolina has done very little. The Lions defense has really struggled of late, highlighted by them getting torched by Packers backup QB Matt Flynn last week. What can be said about the Saints offense? Basically, they are filled with record breakers and at home impossible to stop. Drew Brees shattered Dan Marino's passing yards record, TE Jimmy Graham was unstoppable, and RB Darren Sproles became the do everything player for the Saints. The Saints lowest point output at home this year was 27 against believe it or not, Tampa Bay. The Saints are now a team that can run the ball, they finished sixth in rushing and can turn to Sproles, Pierre Thomas or Chris Ivory and expect production out of all of them. Defensively, the Saints are strong against the run but as mentioned above struggle against the pass. They also ranked very low in takeaways, which was a staple of their 2010 Super Bowl team. People keep saying the Lions can win this but I think that is just people hoping this is a close game. The only way the Saints lose is if Brees throws 2 picks or more. The Lions don't have the running game needed to play ball control and keep the ball out of Brees hands. As a 49ers fan, I would love for the Lions to win so the Niners can avoid New Orleans, but its not happening.

Prediction: New Orleans 37, Detroit 23

NFC Wild Card: Atlanta (10-6) at New York Giants (9-7), New York Giants favored by 3

I love the Falcons in this game. The Giants backed into the playoffs, with wins over the Jets and Cowboys, mostly because those teams were so bad and couldn't take advantage of all the mistakes the Giants tried to hand them. Falcons QB Matt Ryan has been on fire his last seven games, throwing 15 TDs to just 2 INTs. He hasn't thrown a pick in a month and must be salivating to face a Giants defense that was 29th against the pass. RB Michael Turner had another big season, rushing for 1,340 yards and 11 TDs. WR Roddy White started slowly but along with Ryan caught fire towards the end of the year and finished with 100 catches. The man they gave the farm up for, rookie WR Julio Jones had a strong rookie year with 54 catches and 8 TDs. You also can't forget about the ageless one, TE Tony Gonzalez who continues to play at a high level. The Falcons are a pretty good defensive team especially against run, finishing sixth on the season. They probably won't be tested much by the Giants running game, which finished dead last this season. Ahmad Bradshaw missed some time with injuries and Brandon Jacobs stopped being good about three years ago. The Giants offense was carried by Eli Manning and dominated by WR Victor Cruz, who came out of nowhere to be the teams leading receiver. Opposite him is Hakeem Nicks, who had a strong season but was also wildly inconsistent at times. Defensively, the Giants have been pretty terrible but still have a very talented defensive front with Justin Tuck, Osi Umeniyora, and emerging stud Jason Pierre-Paul. I really like the Falcons because I think they are clearly a better team than the Giants and I also think that despite his strong showing last week, Manning has been largely struggling as of late. If he isn't playing his best, the Giants offense becomes very stagnant and I think that is too much of a burden for Eli. Plus, the Giants home field advantage isn't much because as soon as they struggle the crowd will turn on them. Falcons win and set themselves up for a Divisional playoff rematch with the Packers.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, New York Giants 17

AFC Wild Card: Pittsburgh (12-4) at Denver (8-8), Pittsburgh favored by 8 1/2

It is clear from the line that Vegas has fallen out of love with Tim Tebow and they are hoping that a lot of people take Denver to cover the spread. Maybe I am a sucker but I still believe Tebow and the Broncos can keep this game competitive. The Tebow bandwagon is empty after the Broncos closed the season with three straight losses but thanks to the awfulness of the AFC West they were still able to win the division. It is no secret that if the Broncos can't run the ball, either with Tebow or Willis McGahee they have no shot to win. Their leading receiver this year was Eric Decker and he had just 44 catches. McGahee appeared reborn in Denver and rushed for 1,199 yards. Even with him rushing for 145 yards last weekend against Kansas City the Broncos still only managed 3 points. Denver's defense was receiving a lot of the credit when they were winning and they certainly have played well after struggling to start the season. They were unable to slow down the Patriots offense but not many teams have been able to do that anyway. The Bills scored points but most of those were because of turnovers by Tebow and last week they held the Chiefs to a touchdown. The Steelers offense has been having a real hard time scoring lately, especially since Ben Roethlisberger sprained his ankle. Now they are without their leading rusher Rashard Mendenhall for the playoffs, as he tore his ACL last week against Cleveland. If Roethlisberger is mobile enough and can find time to throw he has two game breaking weapons in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. The Steelers defense was declared dead by Warren Sapp after week 1 but ended up finishing first against the pass and eighth against the run. They will be without S Ryan Clark, who can't play in Denver, and they will miss him, but Tebow isn't the guy that can exploit that. I expect this game to go like most Denver games, the defense plays well enough to let them hang around, but I don't think Tebow can make enough plays for Denver to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 20, Denver 13

Last Week Straight Up: 10-6
Overall Straight Up: 161-95

Last Week Against the Spread: 4-11-1 (ouch)
Overall Against the Spread: 127-122-7

The Hail Mary - Looking back

2012-01-04T16:04:00.004-05:00

I put a lot of time and effort into my NFL previews back in August so I thought it would be fun to take a look back and see how I did.

NFC East (My predictions)

1. *Philadelphia 11-5, 2. *Dallas 10-6, 3. New York Giants 8-8, 4. Washington 5-11

NFC East (Actual results)

1. *New York Giants 9-7, 2. Philadelphia 8-8, 3. Dallas 8-8, 4. Washington 5-11

The Verdict: Like everyone else I had high expectations for Philly, but went even further and had them winning the Super Bowl. Ugh. Nailed the Redskins record and knew they would struggle with no real quarterback. If I knew that back in August, how didn't the Shanahan's know? Almost was right on Dallas making the playoffs.

NFC North (My Predictions)

1. *Green Bay 12-4, 2. Minnesota 8-8, 3. Detroit 7-9, 4. Chicago 5-11

NFC North (Actual Results)

1. *Green Bay 15-1, 2. *Detroit 10-6, 3. Chicago 8-8, 4. Minnesota 3-13

The Verdict: Correctly predicted Green Bay as division champs but not much else. Did get it right about the Bears missing the playoffs.

NFC South (My predictions)

1. *New Orleans 12-4, 2. *Atlanta 10-6, 3. Tampa Bay 8-8, 4. Carolina 3-13

NFC South (Actual Results)

1. *New Orleans 13-3, 2. *Atlanta 10-6, 3. Carolina 6-10, 4. Tampa Bay 4-12

The Verdict: Was right on with Atlanta and New Orleans, didn't anticipate the impact Cam would have, or how bad the Bucs actually were.

NFC West (My Predictions)

1. *Arizona 7-9, 2. San Francisco 6-10, 3. St. Louis 6-10, 4. Seattle 5-11

NFC West (Actual Results)

1. *San Francisco 13-3, 2. Arizona 8-8, 3. Seattle 7-9, 4. St. Louis 2-14

The Verdict: Thought Harbaugh would improve the Niners but figured it would start in Year 2. Knew that the Rams were frauds.

AFC East (My Predictions)

1. *New England 13-3, 2. *New York Jets 11-5, 3. Miami 6-10, 4. Buffalo 5-11

AFC East (Actual Results)

1. *New England 13-3, 2. New York Jets 8-8, 3. Miami 6-10, 4. Buffalo 6-10

The Verdict: I nailed this division. If the Jets hadn't been a bunch of choking, fluke frauds I could have been perfect.

AFC North (My Predictions)

1. *Pittsburgh 12-4, 2. *Baltimore 9-7, 3. Cleveland 7-9, 4. Cincinnati 4-12

AFC North (Actual Results)

1. *Baltimore 12-4, 2. *Pittsburgh 12-4, 3. *Cincinnati 9-7, 4. Cleveland 4-12

The Verdict: Had the Ravens in the playoffs but figured they were getting too old on defense and would take a step back. Had no idea the Bengals would turn it around like they did. Thought the Browns would be better largely based on what appeared to be an easy schedule.

AFC South (My Predictions)

1. *Indianapolis 9-7, 2. Houston 9-7, 3. Tennessee 6-10, 4. Jacksonville 4-12

AFC South (Actual Results)

1. *Houston 10-6, 2. Tennessee 9-7, 3. Jacksonville 5-11, 4. Indianapolis 2-14

The Verdict: These predictions were made before it was known that Manning would be out for so long. I did alright, knew the Jags would stink, didn't expect the Titans to be mediocre.

AFC West (My Predictions)

1. *San Diego 11-5, 2. Kansas City 7-9, 3. Oakland 7-9, 4. Denver 6-10

AFC West (Actual Results)

1. *Denver 8-8, 2. San Diego 8-8, 3. Oakland 8-8, 4. Kansas City 7-9

The Verdict: Yes, I fell for the San Diego hype like everyone else. Never again. Pretty much was right there with the rest, figured this division would be mediocre as a whole.

As far as my playoff predictions I predicted 3 (Green Bay, New Orleans, Atlanta) out of 6 teams correctly and also was 3 (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England) out of 6 in the AFC. In the NFC, my divisional round prediction of Green Bay vs. Atlanta remains possible, but I had the Eagles beating the Packers in the NFC Championship and that won't be happening. In the AFC, my AFC Championship prediction of New England and Pittsburgh is possible, and my Super Bowl pick for the AFC of New England can still happen. My ultimate pick of the Eagles as Super Bowl champions is unfortunately, impossible.

Cram Session - Bowl Edition

2012-01-04T09:35:00.008-05:00

People may detest the BCS but it can't be denied that thus far the games have been tremendous and filled with drama. That trend continued last night with Michigan and Virginia Tech going to overtime, before the Wolverines finally prevailed. Clemson and West Virginia have a lot to live up to tonight.

Orange Bowl, Wednesday, January 4

#23 West Virginia (9-3) vs. #15 Clemson (10-3) in Miami, Florida

These teams are champions from conferences that don't get much respect in college football. It is pretty much accepted that the Big East is a joke, especially when 7 win Louisville almost was their representative in this game. The ACC has failed to live up to the expectations placed upon the conference when Miami, Florida State, and Virginia Tech joined. The mediocrity of the conferences has led to some less than stellar games in the recent history of the Orange Bowl, such as Wake Forest/Louisville, and Cincinnati/Virginia Tech. The merits of how good West Virginia and Clemson are can be argued but there is little doubt that this will be a highly entertaining game. Both teams feature prolific offenses, with plenty of star players at the skill positions. Both teams look to run when they have to, but live off of their passing game. For West Virginia their offense is driven by Geno Smith. Smith had 25 TDs and 7 INTs this season, almost identical to last season. The big difference was his attempts and his passing yards which were up considerably. He didn't throw many picks, but when he did, it came in bunches, as he had three games with at least 2 INTs. His receivers are Stedman Bailey, who led the team with 11 TDs, and Tavon Austin, who led the team with 89 catches. The running game is anchored by freshman Dustin Garrison, while the red zone back is Shawne Alston who finished with 10 TDs. Defensively, the Mountaineers struggled, giving up 26 points a game. The Tigers passing attack is led by Tajh Boyd. Boyd struggled a bit as the season winded down but still finished with 31 TDs and 10 INTs. Andre Ellington is their do everything running back, and he comes into the Orange Bowl with some momentum, as in his last game he shredded the Hokies defense. WR Sammy Watkins was sensational in his freshman year, compiling 11 TDs and 77 catches. Lining up on the other side is WR DeAndre Hopkins, no slouch himself with 62 catches. Much like the Mountaineers, the Tigers struggled defensively, but have shown flashes of being able to shut teams down. Both of these teams are very young and have the potential to be in BCS games for years to come. This should be a back and forth shootout, and I expect it will come down to the final minutes. I think Clemson's speed on offense will eventually overwhelm the Mountaineers and be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Clemson 38, West Virginia 35

Cram Session - Bowl Edition

2012-01-03T12:22:00.008-05:00

The BCS bowls got off to an exciting start yesterday. Oregon outlasted Wisconsin in a track meet in the Rose Bowl, and Oklahoma State defeated Stanford in overtime in the Fiesta Bowl. The third BCS bowl is tonight in New Orleans with Michigan taking on Virginia Tech.

Sugar Bowl, Tuesday, January 3

#13 Michigan (10-2) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (11-2) in New Orleans, Louisiana

Michigan capped off a strong first season under Brady Hoke by defeating their rivals, Ohio State for the first time since 2003. Not many have questioned them being invited to the Sugar Bowl. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Virginia Tech. Tech was thrashed for the second time this season by Clemson and many assumed were heading for something like the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Instead, they were shockingly given an at-large bid to the Sugar Bowl despite basically not beating anyone worth a damn all season. If they lose this game or even worse get blown out the hate will grow even greater for Tech's inclusion over teams like Boise State, Kansas State and Arkansas. While Tech struggled with true competition they have some talented players, especially on offense. Quarterback Logan Thomas improved as the year went on and finished with 19 TDs, 9 INTs and 2,799 yards passing. However, the player that carried the team was RB David Wilson. Wilson was named the ACC player of the year and with good reason. He rushed for over 120 yards in 10 of Tech's 13 games, and finished the season with 1,627 rushing yards and 9 TDs. He is coming off his worst game of the season, where Clemson held him to just 32 yards on 11 carries. Tech has a pretty potent 1-2 punch at wide receiver with Danny Coale and Jarrett Boykin. They are down to their third kicker in this game, their starting kicker was arrested on a felony charge, and their backup was sent home after missing curfew. That will definitely be something to watch in what could be a close game. When people think of Michigan their thoughts immediately turn to QB Denard Robinson. Robinson saw his interceptions spike this year, and his completion percentage and passing yards dip, but he was dealing with a staph infection most of the season. He still remains a major threat running the ball, and the Wolverines also have a 1,000 yard running back in Fitzgerald Touissaint. Both teams play strong defense, so it will be interesting to see what kind of success the ground games for each team will have. I think Tech will be motivated to prove they belong in this game but I think the Wolverines are better. I also think the kicking game will definitely become a factor. Tech fans should like this since I can't seem to pick a game of theirs right lately but I like the Wolverines to get the win.

Prediction: Michigan 27, Virginia Tech 17

Overall Record: 117-22

The Hail Mary - Week 17

2011-12-31T19:05:00.020-05:00

Quick and dirty Hail Mary for the regular season finale. Just got back from Florida, and have to start celebrating my engagement and 2012. Just score predictions this week but the Hail Mary will return to normal for the start of the playoffs next week.

Week 17 - Sunday, January 1

Detroit (10-5) at Green Bay (14-1), Detroit favored by 4

Prediction: Green Bay 24, Detroit 21

San Francisco (12-3) at St. Louis (2-13), San Francisco favored by 10 1/2

Prediction: San Francisco 24, St. Louis 10

New York Jets (8-7) at Miami (5-10), Miami favored by 3

Prediction: New York Jets 20, Miami 16

Chicago (7-8) at Minnesota (3-12), Minnesota favored by 1 1/2

Prediction: Minnesota 21, Chicago 17

Buffalo (6-9) at New England (12-3), New England favored by 10 1/2

Prediction: New England 27, Buffalo 21

Carolina (6-9) at New Orleans (12-3), New Orleans favored by 7 1/2

Prediction: New Orleans 30, Carolina 23

Washington (5-10) at Philadelphia (7-8), Philadelphia favored by 8

Prediction: Philadelphia 28, Washington 21

Indianapolis (2-13) at Jacksonville (4-11), Jacksonville favored by 3 1/2

Prediction: Jacksonville 17, Indianapolis 14

Tennessee (8-7) at Houston (10-5), Tennessee favored by 1 1/2

Prediction: Houston 24, Tennessee 17

Tampa Bay (4-11) at Atlanta (9-6), Atlanta favored by 10 1/2

Prediction: Atlanta 35, Tampa Bay 17

Baltimore (11-4) at Cincinnati (9-6), Baltimore favored by 2

Prediction: Cincinnati 21, Baltimore 20

Pittsburgh (11-4) at Cleveland (4-11), Pittsburgh favored by 6 1/2

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 15

Kansas City (6-9) at Denver (8-7), Denver favored by 3

Prediction: Denver 24, Kansas City 20

San Diego (7-8) at Oakland (8-7), Oakland favored by 3

Prediction: Oakland 28, San Diego 24

Seattle (7-8) at Arizona (7-8), Arizona favored by 3

Prediction: Arizona 19, Seattle 17

Dallas (8-7) at New York Giants (8-7), New York Giants favored by 3

Prediction: New York Giants 26, Dallas 20

Last Week Straight Up: 12-4
Overall Straight Up: 151-89

Last Week Against the Spread: 11-5
Overall Against the Spread: 123-111-6

The Hail Mary - Week 16

2011-12-22T13:26:00.037-05:00

First off, Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, whatever you choose to celebrate at this time of year! Two weeks remain in the regular season and the playoff pictures remains quite muddled. That means there is still plenty of intrigue left this season. Last weekend was quite amazing as underdogs ruled the day. That continued into last night when the Colts knocked off the Texans. You know it has been a crazy five days when the Colts have won twice in that span. This weekend features multiple games with major playoff implications, so what am I waiting for!?!?

Programming note, I may not have a Hail Mary next week as I will be out of town. I will try to get something up, maybe just a quickie post but I wouldn't count on it.

Week 16 - Saturday, December 24

Denver (8-6) at Buffalo (5-9), Denver favored by 3

Tim Tebow's miracle run finally came to an end at the hand of the Patriots. It might have been because he flipped the script and started off the game playing well before falling apart. I think that Tebow will go back to what he does best in this game. Play like crap for three quarters, then lead the Broncos to a thrilling come from behind win in the fourth quarter. Despite their loss last week, they still control the AFC West, holding a one game lead over the Raiders and suddenly resurgent Chargers. I gave Buffalo the benefit of the doubt last weekend and thought they had to have had at least one more win in them, but no, it is obvious they are ending the year on a 9 game losing streak.

Prediction: Denver 28, Buffalo 17

Arizona (7-7) at Cincinnati (8-6), Cincinnati favored by 4 1/2

The Arizona Cardinals are neck and neck with their NFC West brethren the Seattle Seahawks for who can have the most miraculous run to the playoffs. They sit two games out with two to play, so the chances are a long shot, but considering they were 1-6 earlier this season, to even be in the discussion right now is quite amazing. Plus, they have won most of those games with John Skelton as their quarterback. The Bengals have to be the biggest surprise of the season. Very much alive for a playoff spot with two weeks to go, I don't even think Marvin Lewis would have expected this. You can just tell the Bengals aren't quite ready for the intensity that playoff football brings and because of that I think they lose this game but could still be very much alive in Week 17 for the final playoff spot.

Prediction: Arizona 20, Cincinnati 16

Jacksonville (4-10) at Tennessee (7-7), Tennessee favored by 8

The Titans probably blew their playoff chances with an inexplicable loss at Indianapolis. Matt Hasselbeck has been awful the last few weeks, and each time I have seen Jake Locker enter a game he has moved the offense better than Hasselbeck. I understand wanting to go with the veteran over the rookie when you are fighting for a playoff spot, but the proof seems to be in the pudding that Locker may give them a better chance to win right now. The Titans also lost to the Jaguars earlier this year, another loss that will haunt them when they are home for the playoffs.

Prediction: Tennessee 23, Jacksonville 19

Oakland (7-7) at Kansas City (6-8), Kansas City favored by 1

Definitely didn't see that Chiefs over Packers upset coming. The defense did a great job slowing down the Packers, while Orton did a nice job of controlling the game and not letting the Packers offense get on the field much. The Raiders dropped their third straight game in heartbreaking fashion to the Lions. All signs would point to this being a Kansas City win, especially because the Chiefs blew out the Raiders in Oakland earlier this season, 28-0. The NFL is not a conventional wisdom league though and that is why I like the Raiders to pull off the mini upset.

Prediction: Oakland 27, Kansas City 20

Miami (5-9) at New England (11-3), New England favored by 10

The Patriots are moving closer and closer to securing the number one seed for the second straight season. Now whether or not that is a good thing based on their recent playoff history is up for debate. Their is no denying the atrociousness of their defense and it may come back to bite them in the playoffs, but maybe times have changed in the NFL and all you really need is a super, awesome quarterback. Tom Brady certainly qualifies.

Prediction: New England 29, Miami 21

New York Giants (7-7) at New York Jets (8-6), New York Jets favored by 3

Definitely one of the most intriguing games this weekend. A Giants loss will likely end their playoff hopes and probably lead to Tom Coughlin being fired. A win and the Giants will control their destiny going into the season finale with the Cowboys. As for the Jets, they currently hold the final playoff spot by a thread. While a loss wouldn't do them any good, they would still have a chance at making the playoffs. That extra feeling of desperation the Giants have is what will ultimately be the difference. These two teams are very evenly matched, so this game will likely come down to the wire.

Prediction: New York Giants 27, New York Jets 24

St. Louis (2-12) at Pittsburgh (10-4), No Line

It was apparent that Ben Roethlisberger was really in no shape to be trying to beat the number one defense on Monday night. He could definitely beat one of the worst teams in the league, but so could Charlie Batch, so it would probably be prudent for the Steelers to sit Big Ben in this one.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, St. Louis 14

Minnesota (2-12) at Washington (5-9), Washington favored by 6 1/2

Been a rough couple of days for the Skins. They upset the Giants last week, worsening their draft position, and then Matt Barkley decided to stay at USC another year. Skins should win here and lose at Philly next weekend, so back to back 6-10 seasons appear to be on the horizon for Mike Shanahan. It is all about year three, another non playoff season and the cries for him to be fired will grow louder.

Prediction: Washington 24, Minnesota 20

Tampa Bay (4-10) at Carolina (5-9), Carolina favored by 7 1/2

The Panthers are going to be everybody's sleeper next season, causing them to not really be a sleeper.

Prediction: Carolina 34, Tampa Bay 20

Cleveland (4-10) at Baltimore (10-4), Baltimore favored by 13

I'm done trying to figure the Ravens out. Well, I take that back, they are quite easy to figure out. They are pretty much unbeatable at home, and almost atrocious on the road. Whoever wins the AFC North between them and the Steelers is who will get to the AFC Championship. Whoever settles for second is getting knocked out in the Wild Card round.

Prediction: Baltimore 23, Cleveland 13

San Diego (7-7) at Detroit (9-5), Detroit favored by 2 1/2

What is it about the Chargers and saving their best football for December, after playing like utter crap the previous three months? The Lions are tantalizingly close to their first playoff berth in 12 years. Typical Lions history says they will drop their last two games and somehow miss the playoffs. However, even if they lose to San Diego on Saturday, they get the Packers in the final game, and their is a good chance the Packers will have home field advantage clinched and nothing to play for. I don't think it will come down to that though. The Lions will give their fans a happy ending on Christmas Eve and clinch their playoff berth at home. Fittingly, the longest tenured Lion, Jason Hanson will kick the game winner.

Prediction: Detroit 26, San Diego 23

Philadelphia (6-8) at Dallas (8-6), Dallas favored by 2 1/2

The Eagles just won't die. It will take a multitude of things to bounce the right way but if Philadelphia can win their last two games, they have a chance at sneaking into the playoffs as NFC East champions. They should feel confident playing Dallas, they destroyed them in their first matchup, The Cowboys have gone from Rex Ryan talking shit, to Jerry Jones claiming the Cowboys are scared of the Eagles. Mind games are the sign of a desperate team, and desperate isn't a good look Jerry. I remember a game between these two on Christmas not too long ago, when Jeff Garcia and the Eagles pounded the crap out of the Cowboys to wrap up the division. I hope the Eagles can give me another Christmas memory of a win over the Cowboys.

Prediction: Philadelphia 31, Dallas 30

San Francisco (11-3) at Seattle (7-7), San Francisco favored by 2 1/2

I was very pleased with the 49ers performance on Monday night. That was a total team win with offense, defense, special teams all doing their part. The red zone issue came through in the beginning of the game, but the the Niners were able to punch it in later to put the game on ice. Going to Seattle is going to be tough, the Seahawks are playing well, and even when they are bad, it is tough to win at Seattle. This is a huge game for San Francisco, if they win this game they should be set for the #2 seed and a playoff bye, since I don't see them losing at St. Louis the final weekend of the season. It is imperative they get that 2 seed, not just for the week off, but so they would host the Saints, instead of having to potentially play them in New Orleans.

Prediction: San Francisco 22, Seattle 19

Sunday, December 25

Chicago (7-7) at Green Bay (13-1), Green Bay favored by 12 1/2

This the only game Christmas day and it's a shame the Bears are so injury depleted as it could have been a great one. The Bears defense will keep them in the game, but their is no way Josh McCown is winning at Lambeau Field.

Prediction: Green Bay 24, Chicago 10

Monday, December 26

Atlanta (9-5) at New Orleans (11-3), New Orleans favored by 6 1/2

It is always a great game when these two play and the stakes are high. The Saints can clinch the NFC South, and keep their hopes for a playoff bye alive with a win. The Falcons are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot, and a win would guarantee that, while also keep alive outside hopes of an NFC South title. The Saints have been fantastic at home all season long, but I think this is another Falcons/Saints game that will go right down to the wire. This game will also have major fantasy football implications, as championship games will likely be decided by this game. I'll be in Florida but hopefully I can find some time to watch this one.

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Atlanta 28

Last Week Straight Up: 7-9
Overall Straight Up: 139-85

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-9-1
Overall Against the Spread: 112-106-6

Cram Session - Bowl Edition

2011-12-21T09:52:00.015-05:00

Some people hate it but it can't be stopped and it only grows bigger and bigger. I'm talking about college football bowl season, get your minds out of the gutter! My favorite teams Notre Dame and Nebraska will both be in Orlando, Florida for their bowl games. Then there is the BCS, which kicks off on January 2nd with the Rose Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl. I have predictions and previews for those four games. Then on January 3rd will have my predictions for the Orange and Sugar Bowl and finally on January 9th the prediction for the game no one outside of the south wanted to see, LSU and Alabama in the National Championship game.

Champs Sports Bowl, Thursday, December 29

Florida State (8-4) vs. Notre Dame (8-4) in Orlando, Florida

These two programs were supposed to finally be "back" this season. With their 8-4 regular seasons the only thing they were back to was the mediocrity that has permeated both programs for years now. Both did at least finish somewhat strong, the Irish went 8-2 in their last 10 games but those two losses came to good teams like USC and Stanford. Notre Dame still appears far away from being able to compete with the best that college football has to offer. The Seminoles have won six of their last seven games and their defense has been playing phenomenally. Their QB EJ Manuel didn't live up to they hype that surrounded him to star the year but still put up decent numbers with 16 TDs and 8 INTs. Otherwise, the Seminoles don't have much offensively that scares you. For Notre Dame, their offense is all about WR Michael Floyd, ones of the best in the country. Floyd had a monster season, grabbing 95 catches and 8 TDs. TE Tyler Eifert also became a presence this season, bringing in 57 catches and 5 TDs. The key for Notre Dame is to establish a running game, whenever they have been able to do that they end up winning. Also, QB Tommy Rees needs to be good Tommy and limit the turnovers. Despite getting yanked in the season finale against Stanford, Brian Kelly has named him the starter for this game. But if he struggles I wouldn't be surprised to see Andrew Hendrix take over. This game is a toss up, so I have to go homer and pick the Irish in what should be a close game. I think Floyd will earn MVP honors and go out in style.

Prediction: Notre Dame 23, Florida State 17

Capital One Bowl, Monday, January 2

#20 Nebraska (9-3) vs. #9 South Carolina (10-2) in Orlando, Florida

The Huskers ended the season on a winning note and if they can beat South Carolina will have their third straight winning season. This year still has to been seen as somewhat of a disappointment. Taylor Martinez didn't get better at quarterback and actually regressed. Also regressing was the defense, which was expected to carry the team. The Huskers lived and died with how RB Rex Burkhead played. Luckily for them he played well most of the season and carried Nebraska to nine wins. The Gamecocks had an up and down season that saw inconsistency at the quarterback position and their best player go down to injury. Stephen Garcia and Connor Shaw shared time out quarterback, until Garcia was booted from the team after blowing his 75th chance. They were being carried by RB Marcus Lattimore but then Lattimore went down with an injury and was lost for the season. It was then the defense's turn, led by highly touted freshman Jadveon Clowney to carry the load and they did it quite well. If the Gamecocks win they will complete their winningest season in school history. This is also Steve Spurrier's first shot at the Cornhuskers since his Florida Gators Fun n' Gun offense was shut down by Nebraska in famous fashion in 1996. If Lattimore was playing I would give the Huskers no chance, but I think the Gamecock offense can be contained and allow the Huskers to get their feet under them on offense. Nebraska will be motivated for this bowl game, unlike last season when they were facing Washington in a rematch. This game is up to the offensive line and their ability to create holes for Burkhead. I think they will do enough to win the game.

Prediction: Nebraska 20, South Carolina 17

Rose Bowl, Monday, January 2

#10 Wisconsin (11-2) vs. #5 Oregon (11-2) in Pasadena, California

The Big Ten and Pac-12 champion face off in the Rose Bowl. Both of these teams were in the mix for a national title during the season but were unable to complete the journey. They each feature talented quarterbacks and running backs. For Wisconsin their offense started off being all about QB Russell Wilson, as he garnered the headlines early on in the season. But then, it became all about RB Montee Ball, who rushed for an insane 32 TDs this season. For Oregon, LaMichael James has always been the face of the offense, with Darron Thomas not getting nearly as much credit as he deserves. This will likely be James last game for the Ducks as he is almost a foregone conclusion that he will go pro after this game. There is no questioning the offenses in this game, so where the game will be decided is which defense can contain the other teams high powered offense. Wisconsin is sixth in the nation in points allowed, but showed in the Big Ten Championship game that they can be scored on, giving up a season high 39 points. The Ducks defense was 48th in the country in points allowed per game but it could be argued that they played much better offenses in the Pac-12 than Wisconsin did in the Big Ten. This is a really tough game to call, both have had tough losses in previous years in the Rose Bowl and will be looking to make up for those. I think the Ducks offense is a little better than the Badgers and that will be what leads them to victory.

Prediction: Oregon 28, Wisconsin 21

Fiesta Bowl, Monday, January 2

#4 Stanford (11-1) vs. #3 Oklahoma State (11-1) in Glendale, Arizona

Pretty cool that #3 and #4 in the country are matched up in the Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma State had a legitimate case to face LSU in the National Championship game but will have to settle for Stanford and Andrew Luck instead. Oklahoma State is all about offense, led by QB Brandon Weeden and all world WR Justin Blackmon. He is overlooked but they also have a running threat in Joseph Randle, who rushed for over 1,000 yards. The Cowboys didn't score less than 30 points in a single game this season. Stanford is identified as Andrew Luck's team but they also have an accomplished running back, Stepfan Taylor. Both teams gave up over 20 points a game so it will be shocking if this game doesn't turn into a track meet. The only way I can see Oklahoma State losing is if they commit multiple turnovers, like they did in their loss at Iowa State. I am a little concerned about them coming out flat because they would rather be playing in New Orleans, but I think the pride of being able to show that they belonged in the title game will win out. This will be one of the most fun bowl games to watch.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Stanford 27

Overall Record: 115-20

The Hail Mary - Week 15

2011-12-15T09:50:00.032-05:00

The Tebow phenomenon appears that it can't be stopped. Somehow, someway, he and the Broncos keep finding ways to win games. Tebow's ability to overcome the impossible should no longer be a surprise. For example, he has remained a virgin despite having girls like the one pictured as possibilities. It appears nothing can stop Tebow. Except maybe the evil genius Bill Belichick and one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game in Tom Brady. Patriots/Broncos on Sunday at 415 is appointment television and should be tremendous theater. There are 14 other games as well, let's talk about them.

Week 15 - Saturday, December 17

Dallas (7-6) at Tampa Bay (4-9), Dallas favored by 7

The Cowboys never just lose, it always seems to be in spectacularly ridiculous fashion. As a Cowboy hater it is quite fun to watch. December hasn't been a kind month to Dallas in recent history but I can't see that misery extending to Saturday when they play a Buccaneers team that quit on their coach last week at Jacksonville. I mean, how else can you explain losing to the sorry Jags, 41-14? The Bucs are horrific on defense so for those of you with Cowboys on your fantasy squad, expect a big night.

Prediction: Dallas 30, Tampa Bay 17

Sunday, December 18

Miami (4-9) at Buffalo (5-8), No Line

The Dolphins finally whacked Tony Sparano and will now set their sets on a big name, such as Jeff Fisher. I always felt Fisher was overrated as a coach but his level of success, while not the best, would certainly be an upgrade for the floundering Dolphins. The Bills completed their collapse by getting routed at San Diego and eliminated from playoff contention. That win over New England seems so long ago. I don't think the Bills are bad enough to lose their last nine games, so at home against Miami is as good a time as any to get a win.

Prediction: Buffalo 17, Miami 16

Seattle (6-7) at Chicago (7-6), Chicago favored by 3 1/2

Poor Marion Barber. He was fantastic for me in fantasy football, rushing for over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown. But in real life, he cost the Bears that game against the Broncos. He may be on a short leash against Seattle and could be pulled quickly if he fumbles or has more brain farts. The Seahawks have snuck back into the playoff race and have to be kicking themselves for losing at home to the Redskins. Chicago's offense has been non-existent since Jay Cutler was forced to sit with an injury, but the defense has kept them competitive. The defense get's the Bears a much needed victory on Sunday.

Prediction: Chicago 17, Seattle 14

Tennessee (7-6) at Indianapolis (0-13), Tennessee favored by 6 1/2

It remains to be seen if the Titans go with Matt Hasselbeck or rookie Jake Locker, who has shown promise in his limited action. I don't know if the Titans have a third string quarterback but he could beat the Colts so it really doesn't matter who get's the nod.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Indianapolis 17

Green Bay (13-0) at Kansas City (5-8), Green Bay favored by 14

The Chiefs fired Todd Haley, just a year after he won the AFC West. When you see how many games the Chiefs have been blown out in this year, it makes you wonder how they have even managed to win five games. The Packers march towards perfection will continue at Arrowhead and the question will be how hard do they try for the perfect season in their last two games? Do they go the 2007 Patriots route, or the 2009 Colts route? I have a feeling that they will go the Patriots route, because while injuries are never welcome, the Packers have so much depth that it probably doesn't matter.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Kansas City 17

Cincinnati (7-6) at St. Louis (2-11), Cincinnati favored by 6

Why in the blue hell is Josh McDaniels possibly being considered as the next coach of the Chiefs? He was awful in Denver and he has been awful as the offensive coordinator for the Rams this year. The Rams needed one yard against Seattle last Monday and took about eight plays to get it. The time they actually got it? When they handed it off to their best player, Steven Jackson, whom they ignored the rest of the time. What an offensive genius!! This game is the kind of game the Bungles would find a way to lose, but I have irrational faith in the Red Rocket and A.J. Green that they can keep the Bengals playoff hopes alive another week.

Prediction: Cincinnati 21, St. Louis 14

New Orleans (10-3) at Minnesota (2-11), New Orleans favored by 7

The Saints are definitely not the same team on the road, and if the Niners are forced to play in the Divisional round at the Superdome it will probably get ugly. The Vikings have been competitive almost all season but continue to find new ways to lose. Christian Ponder had his first truly bad game at Detroit last weekend, so hopefully he can shake that off and play better at home. The Saints will enjoy the comforts of the dome, but I think the Vikings can hang with them and give them a scare, before ultimately doing what they do best this season, losing.

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Minnesota 26

Washington (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6), New York Giants favored by 7

The Redskins have had their fair share of troubles in New York over the last few years, with only Todd Collins being able to figure out how to win there. The last few years have been complete embarrassments. I think the Redskins will at least show up, but the Giants need this game, and while they have some mysterious losses, this game won't be added to the list. Expect Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to own the Redskins like they always do.

Prediction: New York Giants 26, Washington 17

Carolina (4-9) at Houston (10-3), Houston favored by 6 1/2

The story in Houston is really quite amazing, as with last week's win despite all of the injuries, they clinched their first AFC South title and thus their first playoff berth. Now they are battling for a first round bye with Baltimore, New England, and Pittsburgh. As if they didn't have enough turmoil to deal with, they will be without defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who is taking a medical leave of absence. It will be interesting to see if his absence has a noticeable effect on what has become the league's number one defense. He is missing at just the wrong time as the Texans have to try to slow down Cam Newton. Luckily for them the 2011 Panthers can be summed up this way, close but no cigar.

Prediction: Houston 24, Carolina 20

Detroit (8-5) at Oakland (7-6), Detroit favored by 1

Really tough game to call here. The Lions get Ndamukong Suh back, which will be nice as they were torched the two weeks he was out. The Raiders have been awful their last two games, stopping no one on defense and turning the ball over in bunches. They weren't missing Darren McFadden originally, but Michael Bush has come back to Earth the last few weeks and the running game has been almost non-existent. Injuries are really starting to take their toll on the Raiders offense. The loser of this game will be in rough shape for a playoff spot so expect the intensity to be ratcheted up in this game. Also, with both teams being highly undisciplined expect this game to take about 6 hours due to all the penalties that will be called. Good ole Sea Bass is due for a game winning kick.

Prediction: Oakland 27, Detroit 24

New England (10-3) at Denver (8-5), New England favored by 6

As mentioned above this is the game of the weekend. All logic says that the Patriots should roll the Broncos. But you have to throw logic out the window when picking a Denver game. The Patriots offense has been on a roll during their five game winning streak, but as we saw for about a three game stretch earlier this season, they can be slowed down. I like the Denver defense to keep the Broncos in the game and Tebow to start to lead another 4th quarter rally. However, this time, the drive will be stopped by a Julian Edelman interception, and the Patriots will wrap up the AFC East.

Prediction: New England 22, Denver 19

New York Jets (8-5) at Philadelphia (5-8), Philadelphia favored by 3

Vegas still loves the Dream Team, inserting them as three point favorites despite their losing record. They also are ignoring how bad Philadelphia has been at home the past year, where they have lost eight of their last nine. I would be more inclined to pick the Eagles if this game was at the New Meadowlands, where Philly tends to play well. The Jets seem to have found their running game recently and I expect Shonn Greene to continue to run the ball well and propel the Jets to their fourth straight win.

Prediction: New York Jets 23, Philadelphia 21

Cleveland (4-9) at Arizona (6-7), Arizona favored by 7

Here come the Cardinals! Kevin Kolb may return for this game, but John Skelton has also showed that he is just as capable of throwing the ball and hoping Larry Fitzgerald makes a super human play. It is looking like Seneca Wallace will get the start for the Browns, which actually might be good news. If you look at Wallace's career stats they actually aren't that bad, and he is a good runner that can be hard to track down. With this win, the Cardinals once at 1-6, will have climbed all the way back to .500.

Prediction: Arizona 20, Cleveland 15

Baltimore (10-3) at San Diego (6-7), Baltimore favored by 2 1/2

The Chargers win two straight games against teams with a combined record of 9-18 and everyone wants to start up the "here come the Chargers" nonsense. The Chargers get to face a big boy team Sunday night, and when the clock is winding down and Philip Rivers is making guh huh face, and Norv Tuner appears flummoxed, people will wonder why the hell they ever keep believing in the Chargers.

Prediction: Baltimore 23, San Diego 16

Monday, December 19

Pittsburgh (10-3) at San Francisco (10-3), No Line

Last week's loss was brutal for the 49ers. You can't lose when you are up 19-7 in the second half against a team being quarterbacked by John Skelton. Red zone problems are plaguing the 49ers right now and it finally cost them. The 49ers have no problem scoring outside the red zone but getting touchdowns inside the 20 has become almost impossible for them. Now they are tied with the Saints for the number two spot in the playoffs and have to host the 10-3 Steelers on Monday night. Ben Roethlisberger is questionable but I expect him to play, so it will be up to the 49ers defense, and Aldon Smith and Justin Smith to make Ben have to move around on his bum ankle. This will be a defensive slugfest and the winner will be the team that makes the fewest mistakes. The Niners need a win badly, because a loss all but guarantees they won't get a first round bye and will have to go to New Orleans if they win their Wild Card game. The Steelers will be just as desperate as they try to keep pace with the Ravens in the AFC North. This will feel like an old school Monday night game. I like the Niners, for no other reason than being a homer.

Prediction: San Francisco 17, Pittsburgh 16

Last Week Straight Up: 13-3
Overall Straight Up: 132-76

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7
Overall Against the Spread: 106-97-5

The Hail Mary - Week 14

2011-12-08T17:50:00.028-05:00

The final turn of the NFL season begins with Week 14 and the final quarter of the season. Only two out of the twelve playoff spots available have been clinched and more than half of the league is still in contention to try to make it. This weekend is highlighted by the Cowboys hosting the Giants in an NFC East battle. The Cowboys can put a stranglehold on the division with a win, while a loss would have them in second place. A prime example of how thin the margin for error is this time of year in the NFL.

Week 14 - Sunday, December 11

Houston (9-3) at Cincinnati (7-5), Cincinnati favored by 3 1/2

The Houston Texans keep proving me wrong week after week. Down to their third string quarterback and with a hobbling Andre Johnson they still managed to defeat a good Atlanta Falcons team. The defense under Wade Phillips continues to shine and might be good enough to carry the Texans to a playoff bye in the highly competitive AFC. The Bengals were thrashed by the Steelers and have only beaten one team with a winning record all season. They are locked in a four way tie for the final playoff spot so every game is basically a must win for them right now. I'm tired of being wrong and picking against the Texans, they just keep finding ways to win.

Prediction: Houston 19, Cincinnati 16

Minnesota (2-10) at Detroit (7-5), No Line

The Detroit Lions appear to be a team that is not ready for prime time. They continuously shoot themselves in the foot with stupid penalty after stupid penalty. It all starts with their wussy head coach Jim Schwartz. He acts out of control so of course the Lions follow his lead. He already corrupted the previously angelic like Ndamukong Suh. The Lions have a bumpy road in the last four so they have to take advantage of games like these that they should win. Leslie Frazier has been an abomination this year as coach, making dumb decisions on a consistent basis, he will probably blunder something in this game to hand the Lions the win.

Prediction: Detroit 27, Minnesota 20

New Orleans (9-3) at Tennessee (7-5), New Orleans favored by 3 1/2

The Saints are on fire and appear unbeatable at home. It is crucial for the 49ers that they hold off the Saints for the number two seed, because the Niners trying to win in the Superdome would probably be too tall of a task. The Saints have had their struggles on the road, with losses to 2-10 St. Louis, and 4-8 Tampa Bay. The Titans were winning with their passing game earlier this season but now they are winning on the back of Chris Johnson. They could be really dangerous if both him and Matt Hasselbeck could be on the same page. I think the Saints have grown as a team since those inexplicable road losses earlier this year and while they won't be as flashy as normal, they will grind out a win over the Titans.

Prediction: New Orleans 24, Tennessee 17

Philadelphia (4-8) at Miami (4-8), Miami favored by 3

Who would have ever guessed that when Miami was 0-7, five weeks later they would have the same record as the Eagles and actually be favored to beat them? The Eagles should have Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin back, but the Dolphins are on a roll right now. For both of these teams its cases of too little, too late.

Prediction: Miami 24, Philadelphia 20

Kansas City (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5), New York Jets favored by 9

The Jets season thus far closely resembles their 2009 campaign. A lot of ups and downs, with them getting hot at just the right time and making the playoffs. They now get to face Tyler Palko and the bumbling Chiefs offense. The most potent play int he Chiefs playbook seems to be the hail mary, so if the Jets can stop that one they should be on their way to their third straight victory.

Prediction: New York Jets 21, Kansas City 13

New England (9-3) at Washington (4-8), New England favored by 8

So that 5-11 I predicted before the season seems very likely for the Redskins. The chances of it happening grew with the suspensions of Trent Williams and Fred Davis for the rest of the season. I am really pissed, not because they are missing real games, but because I needed Fred Davis for my fantasy football playoffs. I am shocked that the line for this game is so low, if I bet on football I would love to take the Pats in this one.

Prediction: New England 28, Washington 17

Atlanta (7-5) at Carolina (4-8), Atlanta favored by 2 1/2

Look at the Panthers turning into road warriors! Ok, sure it was just the Colts and Buccaneers but this team couldn't win on the road at all last season. Earlier this season, they had the Falcons on the ropes in Atlanta but some costly interceptions by Cam Newton cost them the game. They get the Falcons at home this time and could play spoiler. I thought the Falcons were starting to catch fire but that loss at Houston was a little perplexing. The Texans have a very good defense, but good teams don't lose to teams with a third string quarterback. That being said, I like them to squeak this one out.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, Carolina 21

Tampa Bay (4-8) at Jacksonville (3-9), No Line

It's the battle of Florida!

Prediction: Tampa Bay 22, Jacksonville 20

Indianapolis (0-12) at Baltimore (9-3), Baltimore favored by 16 1/2

The Ravens control their own destiny the rest of the way but with the Steelers having mostly a cupcake schedule the pressure is on Baltimore. That pressure won't be felt this weekend as the Colts are a win on everyone's schedule.

Prediction: Baltimore 27, Indianapolis 15

Chicago (7-5) at Denver (7-5), Denver favored by 3 1/2

Bummed that Jay Cutler won't be able to play in what would have been his return to Denver. The game will still be intriguing because of Time Tebow. Each and every week the Broncos find themselves trailing and Tebow brings them back. Keep brushing off the haters Timmy! Caleb Hanie has been terrible thus far and now the Bears also don't have Matt Forte. They hope that Marion Barber can recapture his 2007 form where he was impossible to tackle and constantly trucked defenders.

Prediction: Denver 17, Chicago 13

San Francisco (10-2) at Arizona (5-7), San Francisco favored by 4

This game makes me nervous. The Cardinals have been playing well for quite some time, and people are finally noticing now after they beat the Cowboys. They also have motivation as they have entered themselves back into the playoff race. The Niners shutout the Rams and clinched their first division title since 2002. The offense continues to have problems in the red zone and that is something that needs to get corrected in the last month of the season. The other goal is to get LB Patrick Willis healthy, as he cannot be hurting come playoff time. This will be a good test for the Niners, one I think they will pass.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, Arizona 19

Oakland (7-5) at Green Bay (12-0), Green Bay favored by 11

The only way Green Bay doesn't go 16-0 is if Aaron Rodgers has a bad day. Through 12 games he hasn't had one of those yet and looking at the Packers last four opponents, and with three of those games at home, it appears unlikely he will. The Raiders will play much better this week than they did at Miami last week, but they have too many injuries to play the perfect game that is necessary to beat the Packers.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Oakland 21

Buffalo (5-7) at San Diego (5-7), San Diego favored by 6 1/2

Much like in 2008, the Bills teased their fans with a fast start, only to fizzle out and end up missing the playoffs. Ever since signing that big contract Ryan Fitzpatrick has been completely mediocre and the loss of Fred Jackson certainly didn't help. The Chargers ended a slide of their own against Jacksonville and still have slim playoff hopes. I really hate picking the Chargers to win anything with the bumbling Norv Turner coaching them, but they just can't lose at home to a team that has lost five straight.

Prediction: San Diego 27, Buffalo 17

New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas (7-5), Dallas favored by 3 1/2

I knew the Cowboys weren't a team on the rise as the media had started to portray them during their four game winning streak. However, while I knew the Cardinals would challenge them I thought the Cowboys had what it took to win on the road. However, their head coach is an idiot and though forcing his kicker to make a long field goal was the best course of action. Then he decided that icing him was an even better idea. But with the Giants losing four straight Dallas is still firmly in control of the NFC East. That could change this weekend if they lose at home to the Giants. New York gave the Packers one of their toughest tests of the season which was how they needed to play after looking so dreadful at New Orleans. The records say otherwise but I firmly believe the Giants are a better team than the Cowboys and will prove that Sunday night. I think they will make life miserable for Tony Romo and Eli Manning will pick apart the Cowboys secondary.

Prediction: New York Giants 28, Dallas 21

Monday, December 12

St. Louis (2-10) at Seattle (5-7), No Line

At least Monday Night football with close with a bang the next two weeks, I don't think American can take much more miserable prime time games. Seriously ESPN, you thought at any point this might be an entertaining game? Did you not watch the borefest that was their season finale with a playoff spot on the line last season?

Prediction: Seattle 24, St. Louis 7

Last Week Straight Up: 9-7
Overall Straight Up: 119-73

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7
Overall Against the Spread: 97-90-5

The Hail Mary - Week 13

2011-12-01T13:14:00.023-05:00

Week 11 - Sunday, December 4

Tennessee (6-5) at Buffalo (5-6), Buffalo favored by 1 1/2

The Bills season has gone off the rails as they enter this game losers of four straight. They had a great opportunity to get a season changing win at the Jets but Stevie Johnson dropped too many passes, and the defense couldn't get stops when they needed it. Must win games is a term that is thrown around all of the time but in reality, a loss here and the Bills will be playing out the string in the last four. The Titans are just a game out of a playoff spot, despite getting sub par quarterback play from Matt Hasselbeck in recent weeks. Chris Johnson had his best game of the season last weekend, but it might have been a mirage because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are atrocious against the run. The Bills have been much better at home all season, so I think this is the spot to end their losing streak. Ryan Fitzpatrick had his best game in over a month last weekend and I expect that momentum to carry over.

Prediction: Buffalo 23, Tennessee 16

Kansas City (4-7) at Chicago (7-4), Chicago favored by 8

This one will be ugly. The Caleb Hanie experience got off to a sluggish start at Oakland last week. Hanie's favorite target is obviously Johnny Knox but his other favorite targets were the Raiders defenders. Hanie's turnovers are what cost the Bears a game they had a great chance at winning. The Chiefs hung around at home against Pittsburgh but their backup quarterback Tyler Palko was also a turnover machine. I would be shocked if Kyle Orton doesn't get the start in this game, although the Chiefs season is basically dead. Talk about ups and downs, three straight losses to start the season, followed by four straight wins, and then a four game losing streak. The Bears at least have a running game when they decided to use it with Matt Forte, I expect Forte to be the key reason the Bears win this one.

Prediction: Chicago 21, Kansas City 14

Oakland (7-4) at Miami (3-8), Miami favored by 3

Peter King loves the Dolphins and if his predictions came true they would probably be 16-0. They have looked much better for the past month, but they are still a 3-8 football team and moral victories are for little kids. The Raiders are winning behind their special teams with punter Shane Lechler and kicker Sebastian Janikowski getting recognition for their awesome play. Michael Bush has also filled in more than capably for Darren McFadden, while Carson Palmer has been steady at quarterback. The Raiders have to be considered the front runners for the AFC West.

Prediction: Oakland 24, Miami 20

Denver (6-5) at Minnesota (2-9), No Line

That being said, don't count out the Denver Tebows. He doesn't look like your typical quarterback but his team is winning games and even worse he is openly religious. People can't stand it. Anyone willing to pick against the Broncos right now is insane. The defense has been a huge reason for their recent success, but its no coincidence that the team is 5-1 since Tebow took over, and were just 1-4 when the prototypical quarterback Kyle Orton was at the controls.

Prediction: Denver 20, Minnesota 13

Indianapolis (0-11) at New England (8-3), New England favored by 20 1/2

Boy did this rivalry die quickly. The Colts look poised to go 0-16 and I certainly could see them losing by more than 20 to the Patriots. However, that is an extreme number and Vegas knows people will be hesitant to bet the Patriots. Bill Belichick can lie through his teeth about this Colts team being similar to the ones they played in the past but everyone knows the truth. A fun bet for this game would be an over/under on number of times Colts quarterback Dan Orlovsky runs out the back of his end zone.

Prediction: New England 30, Indianapolis 10

Cincinnati (7-4) at Pittsburgh (8-3), Pittsburgh favored by 6 1/2

The Bengals are a fun team to watch, especially their rookie tandem on offense, QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green. They are a team to watch in the future, if they can overcome being the Bengals. They are on the precipice of being a contender but as was shown when they lost to Pittsburgh and Baltimore a few weeks ago, not quite there. I expect this game to follow that same pattern. The Bengals will hang around and keep it interesting
but fall just short in the end.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Cincinnati 24

Carolina (3-8) at Tampa Bay (4-7), Tampa Bay favored by 3 1/2

The Bucs have imploded this year and QB Josh Freeman has regressed badly. Although, maybe last seasons 10-6 record was really just a symptom of an easy schedule. The Bucs do have talent, but they haven't been able to put it all together, especially on defense. Home cooking should do them some good against a Carolina team that usually keeps it close but still is learning how to win.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 27, Carolina 24

New York Jets (6-5) at Washington (4-7), New York Jets favored by 3

Maybe I just shouldn't watch Skins games. I only saw bits and pieces of the Seattle game on Red Zone last weekend. When I saw they were trailing 17-7 in the 4th I assumed it was another loss. However, to the Skins credit they kept fighting and ended their six game losing streak. The talk for this week's game against the Jets has been how fun or miserable it will be to watch two inconsistent quarterbacks do battle. I expect to see a few interceptions from both quarterbacks, and strong defensive efforts from both teams. It will be a good test for new Redskins RB Roy Helu, who finally got a start last weekend about two months too late. The difference will be that the Jets know how to close out a game, while the Redskins usually find ways to blow games.

Prediction: New York Jets 21, Washington 17

Atlanta (7-4) at Houston (8-3), Atlanta favored by 2 1/2

Houston is down their third string quarterback, rookie T.J. Yates out of North Carolina. Yates actually performed pretty well when pressed into duty at Jacksonville last week. He really only has to be serviceable because the defense continues to play outstanding for the Texans. Unfortunately, the level of opponent this week is quite a step up from Jacksonville. The Falcons are depleted in their secondary, and if Schaub was starting or maybe Leinart I would like the Texans. But I believe Yates will be rattled by the Atlanta defensive front and make some mistakes. Offensively for the Falcons, Matt Ryan is playing very well right now and I expect him to make enough plays on the Houston defense to give the Falcons their third straight victory.

Prediction: Atlanta 23, Houston 13

Baltimore (8-3) at Cleveland (4-7), Baltimore favored by 6

It wouldn't shock me if the Ravens lose this game. Their modus operandi all season has been to win a big game, then lose to a bummy team. I just have no faith in the Cleveland Browns being able to capitalize on the Ravens inconsistency. The Ravens will let it be closer than it should be, but I think Ray Rice has a 100-yard game in him and will pound the Browns into submission.

Prediction: Baltimore 20, Cleveland 17

Green Bay (11-0) at New York Giants (6-5), Green Bay favored by 7

Seems that some people like the Giants to be the ones to hand the Packers their first loss. I haven't seen anything out of the Giants the last two weeks that would indicate to me they are up to that task. The performance against the Saints last weekend was pathetic, and if their defense thought the Saints offense was a juggernaut they need to be aware that the Packers are even better. I foolishly picked against Green Bay last weekend, but no more, Aaron Rodgers is just playing too well right now.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, New York Giants 26

Dallas (7-4) at Arizona (4-7), Dallas favored by 4 1/2

The Cardinals are expecting to have Kevin Kolb back as the starter when they welcome Dallas. Kolb isn't great but he is a definite step up from John Skelton. The Cowboys have won four in a row but haven't been that impressive against pretty bad teams the last two weeks. The Cardinals always play much tougher at home so I expect this to be a close game. I think it will come down to Dan Bailey's leg for the third straight week.

Prediction: Dallas 30, Arizona 27

St. Louis (2-9) at San Francisco (9-2), San Francisco favored by 13

The Niners saw their eight game winning streak go by the wayside at Baltimore last week. It was a tall task, asking them to go cross country on a short week and beat a very good team. I liked that the Niners were competitive and in the game until the final few minutes. I didn't like how poorly the offensive line played. The Ravens have a very talented defense, but the Niners offensive line has no excuse for letting Alex Smith get sacked nine times. I think the Niners will be rested and ready to beat up on a lifeless, poor Rams team at home. Plus, a win will bring them their first division title since 2002.

Prediction: San Francisco 27, St. Louis 10

Detroit (7-4) at New Orleans (8-3), New Orleans favored by 9

Nice that this game could be flexed into Sunday night in favor of the Colts/Patriots smushsmortion. I am not too sure this game will be ultra competitive though. The Lions defense will be without Ndamukong Suh, who foolishly stepped on an opposing player last week. I had defended Suh because he never seemed like a dirty player in college at Nebraska, but he definitely crossed the line last week and a 2-game suspension seems fair. The Lions are just 2-4 in their last six and most of that can be attributed to the struggles of QB Matthew Stafford. After a fast start he has been a turnover machine the last six weeks. The Lions lack of a running game is also starting to effect them. The Saints offense is like a machine when they play at home and are almost unstoppable at times. They are also getting healthy and might be peaking at just the right time.

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Detroit 20

Monday, December 5

San Diego (4-7) at Jacksonville (3-8), San Diego favored by 2 1/2

The Chargers are a joke and Norv Turner should be soon going the way of the Jaguars former coach Jack Del Rio. I am probably foolish to pick them to win this game, but they aren't going to finish 4-12 and have to find another win somewhere. Signing LB Takeo Spikes was a huge mistake, no matter where he goes, he sees the same hoes, I mean misses the playoffs.

Prediction: San Diego 24, Jacksonville 14

Last Week Straight Up: 10-6
Overall Straight Up: 110-66

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-6
Overall Against the Spread: 88-83-5

Cram Session - Week 14

2011-11-30T13:11:00.015-05:00

Thursday, December 1

Philadelphia (4-7) at Seattle (4-7), Philadelphia favored by 3

Well I feel foolish for picking the Eagles to make the Super Bowl. Philadelphia surprised everyone by beating the Giants and then were leading the Patriots 10-0. Thoughts of perhaps resurrecting their season had to be returning. But then Tom Brady took over the game and the Patriots destroyed Philadelphia. The Eagles are now just playing out the string, while Andy Reid might be coaching to save his job. Vince Young will make his third straight start as Michael Vick misses yet another game. They probably should just shut Vick down for the season, its not like it really matters or anything. The Eagles will also be without Jeremy Maclin, Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie, and possibly LeSean McCoy. Most teams would be hurt by their best player being out, but Reid doesn't understand that McCoy is his best player so he probably won't notice. The Seahawks couldn't beat the sorry Redskins at home, which is the only reason I think the Eagles win this snorefest.

Prediction: Philadelphia 23, Seattle 19

Top 10 - Friday, December 2

Pac-12 Championship Game: UCLA (6-6, 5-4) at #9 Oregon (10-2, 8-1)

What an exciting start to a new era of conference championships in the Pac-12! I know sarcasm doesn't always come through on the Internet, so yes, I am being sarcastic. Due to NCAA sanctions against USC, the second place team from the Pac-12 South, UCLA get's to play for the Pac-12 championship. Even better, when they lose and drop to 6-7, they have been granted a waiver that will allow them to play in a bowl game despite having a losing record. The Bruins might be motivated to play for outgoing coach Rick Neuheisel but any motivation they had playing for him when he was the coach obviously wasn't enough, so why would it be any different now? This one will get ugly in a hurry, but I do think the Bruins will at least put up some points, unlike their embarrassing 50-0 loss to USC last weekend. The Ducks had national title aspirations to start the season but a Rose Bowl trip isn't bad consolation.

Prediction: Oregon 45, UCLA 17

Saturday, December 3

SEC Championship Game: #1 LSU (12-0, 8-0) vs. #14 Georgia (10-2, 7-1) in Atlanta, Georgia

LSU is in the rare position where even if they lose this game they likely will play for the national title. I am not on the playoff train like a lot of people are but if the BCS ends up pitting LSU and Alabama, with neither having won their conference title, that is something that will make me go hmmmmmmmmmmmm. Thankfully, odds of that happening are slim as only one team has given the Tigers fits this year, and they won't be playing them until January. Georgia is hot, winners of 10 straight but they also feasted on an easier schedule that allowed them to avoid LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas. The Tigers will be tested on defense as they try to contain Bulldogs QB Aaron Murray and RB Isaiah Crowell. They have passed every test they have faced thus far and I expect Saturday to be no different. They will keep winning with the formula of lots of defense, just enough offense, and the Honey Badger Tyrann Mathieu, taking over the game.

Prediction: LSU 28, Georgia 14

#10 Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2) at #3 Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1)

The Big 12 lost its championship game when the conference shrunk to 10 but ended up with one to close the season as the Sooners travel to Stillwater for Bedlam. The winner of this game wins the Big 12 and heads to a BCS bowl. The Cowboys have a slight chance at reaching the BCS Championship if they can beat the Sooners impressively. This game is a toss up as both teams have high powered offenses and shaky defenses. The Sooners have owned the series in recent history but this is the year I think the Cowboys change the tide. I got burned on this last week when I picked Virginia over the Hokies using the law of averages rule. But I think this game is different. The Sooners have not shown the ability to slow down high powered offenses, so I expect Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon to have big games. The key for the Cowboys will be avoiding the turnovers that plagued them in the loss to Iowa State. The Sooners will miss Ryan Broyles in this game, with his absence being felt on the last drive of the game when Landry Jones will fail to lead the comeback.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 35, Oklahoma 34

ACC Championship Game: #5 Virginia Tech (11-1, 7-1) vs. #20 Clemson (9-3, 6-2) in Charlotte, North Carolina

Hokie graduate Eileen Jarvis doesn't want me to do this, but I think the Hokies will win another ACC championship this weekend. I picked Tech to lose to both Georgia Tech and Virginia and we all know how those turned out. She is worried that with me picking Tech this weekend, it will cause them to be upset by Clemson. The Tigers throttled Virginia Tech in their first meeting but both teams have taken vastly different directions since then. The Hokies have been unbeaten, while Clemson is on a two game losing streak, and were routed in each loss. Each team has their share of star position players, with Tech led by QB Logan Thomas and ACC Player of the Year, RB David Wilson. Clemson has QB Tajh Boyd, RB Andre Ellington, and WR Sammy Watkins. However, in this game it will be the Hokies defense that carries the day. They feel very slighted after not having a single defensive player named to first team all ACC. I expect them to force Clemson into multiple turnovers and Wilson to have a huge game running the ball.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Clemson 20

Conference USA Championship Game: #24 Southern Mississippi (10-2, 6-2) at #6 Houston (12-0, 8-0)

I thought the Cougars were primed to be upset going on the road to Tulsa last weekend. For the first half it looked like I might be right, but then Case Keenum went off like he always does and the Cougars cruised. Now they try to win the Conference USA Championship and in all likelihood earn a shot to prove they can compete with the best in a BCS bowl. If Brett Favre were able to come back and quarterback Southern Miss I might be tempted to pick them, but alas, he used up his eligibility.

Prediction: Houston 37, Southern Mississippi 24

New Mexico (1-10, 1-5) at #7 Boise State (10-1, 5-1)

New Mexico sucks, Boise State is good, Boise cruises to victory, fin.

Prediction: Boise State 55, New Mexico 13

Last Week: 7-2
Overall: 111-18

The Cram Mary

2011-11-22T09:35:00.027-05:00

Thanksgiving is just two days away so the regular Thursday Cram Session, and Friday Hail Mary go by the wayside during this holiday week. Instead, to go with the Thanksgiving theme, I am giving you a jumbo sized edition combining both into The Cram Mary. No long write ups this week either, I have earned a one week break. Have a Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the games!

College Football - Week 13

Games That Matter to Me

Friday, November 25

Iowa (7-4, 4-3) at #21 Nebraska (8-3, 4-3)

Prediction: Nebraska 27, Iowa 21

Saturday, November 26

#22 Notre Dame (8-3) at #6 Stanford (10-1)

Prediction: Stanford 31, Notre Dame 27

Top 10 - Friday, November 25

#3 Arkansas (10-1, 6-1) at #1 LSU (11-0, 7-0)

Prediction: LSU 28, Arkansas 20

#8 Houston (11-0, 7-0) at Tulsa (8-3, 7-0)

Prediction: Tulsa 42, Houston 38

Saturday, November 26

#2 Alabama (10-1, 6-1) at #24 Auburn (7-4, 4-3)

Prediction: Alabama 20, Auburn 17

#5 Virginia Tech (10-1, 6-1) at Virginia (8-3, 5-2)

Prediction: Virginia 26, Virgina Tech 23

Wyoming (7-3, 4-1) at #7 Boise State (9-1, 4-1)

Prediction: Boise State 35, Wyoming 21

Iowa State (6-4, 3-4) at #9 Oklahoma (8-2, 5-2)

Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Iowa State 24

Oregon State (3-8, 3-5) at #10 Oregon (9-2, 7-1)

Prediction: Oregon 38, Oregon State 21

Last Week: 8-4
Overall: 104-16

NFL - Week 12

Thursday, November 17

Green Bay (10-0) at Detroit (7-3), Green Bay favored by 6

Prediction: Detroit 30, Green Bay 27

Miami (3-7) at Dallas (6-4), Dallas favored by 7

Prediction: Dallas 27, Miami 21

San Francisco (9-1) at Baltimore (7-3), Baltimore favored by 4 1/2

Prediction: San Francisco 20, Baltimore 17

Sunday, November 27

Minnesota (2-8) at Atlanta (6-4), Atlanta favored by 9 1/2

Prediction: Atlanta 26, Minnesota 17

Cleveland (4-6) at Cincinnati (6-4), Cincinnati favored by 7 1/2

Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 21

Tampa Bay (4-6) at Tennessee (5-5), Tennessee favored by 3

Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, Tennessee 23

Carolina (2-8) at Indianapolis (0-10), Carolina favored by 4

Prediction: Carolina 28, Indianapolis 19

Arizona (3-7) at St. Louis (2-8), No Line

Prediction: Arizona 21, St. Louis 14

Buffalo (5-5) at New York Jets (5-5), New York Jets favored by 8 1/2

Prediction: New York Jets 24, Buffalo 17

Houston (7-3) at Jacksonville (3-7), Houston favored by 3

Prediction: Houston 16, Jacksonville 12

Chicago (7-3) at Oakland (6-4), Oakland favored by 3 1/2

Prediction: Oakland 28, Chicago 17

Washington (3-7) at Seattle (4-6), Seattle favored by 4 1/2

Prediction: Seattle 23, Washington 20

New England (7-3) at Philadelphia (4-6), No Line

Prediction: New England 31, Philadelphia 24

Denver (5-5) at San Diego (4-6), San Diego favored by 6 1/2

Prediction: San Diego 27, Denver 25

Pittsburgh (7-3) at Kansas City (4-6), Pittsburgh favored by 10 1/2

Prediction: Pittsburgh 35, Kansas City 14

Monday, November 28

New York Giants (6-4) at New Orleans (7-3), New Orleans favored by 7

Prediction: New York Giants 31, New Orleans 28

Last Week Straight Up: 10-4
Overall Straight Up: 100-60

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-5-2
Overall Against the Spread: 78-77-5

The Hail Mary - Week 11

2011-11-17T14:55:00.020-05:00

We were all spoiled by last week's games as this week the schedule is utter poop again. There are only two games between teams with winning records this weekend. However, the good news is this is the last week of byes, so we have full schedules for the rest of the season. It's also Dallas Sunday for the Redskins but the fan base has been so beaten down that the questions seems to be not whether the Redskins will win or not, but whether they will score a touchdown.

Week 11 - Sunday, November 20

Jacksonville (3-6) at Cleveland (3-6), Jacksonville favored by 1

I am only talking about this game because I talk about every game. I look forward to whoever the poor announce team for this game is, trying to convince everyone that these two teams are playing good football, then watching one of the teams blow an extra point.

Prediction: Jacksonville 16, Cleveland 13

Carolina (2-7) at Detroit (6-3), Detroit favored by 7

Huge game for the Lions, because with the Packers coming to Detroit on Thanksiving, a loss here would leave them at 6-5 by next week and in complete free fall mode. The offense was dreadful last week, with QB Matthew Stafford throwing four interceptions and having one of the worst games of his career. Panthers QB Cam Newton had his first rookie like performance in a blowout lass against the Titans last week. I think he will get back to his regular form this week and look forward to watching Ndamukong Suh and him colliding at some point. I expect this game to be close but the Lions to get a much needed win.

Prediction: Detroit 28, Carolina 23

Tampa Bay (4-5) at Green Bay (9-0), Green Bay favored by 14 1/2

Tampa looked awful at home last week and seems to have regressed from last season. Or, they actually are having to play a tough schedule this season and are paying for it. I watched about two seconds of the Packers destruction of Minnesota, but I know that Aaron Rodgers continues to play out of his mind. I have learned my lesson, as long as the Packers have Rodgers, I will keep picking them to win, and to cover 2 touchdown spreads.

Prediction: Green Bay 35, Tampa Bay 17

Buffalo (5-4) at Miami (2-7), Miami favored by 2 1/2

Another team falling apart is the Bills. The Bills and Lions were nice stories to start the year, but the season is a marathon, not a sprint, and it seems that both are reverting to their more expected form. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been struggling for the past 6 games, and if Fred Jackson is held in check like he was by Dallas, the Bills have no offense. The Dolphins have won two straight and even won a home game last weekend. Unfortunately, they have put themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, but maybe they could still get Matt Barkley. However, if they keep winning, that may get to be impossible.

Prediction: Miami 20, Buffalo 17

Oakland (5-4) at Minnesota (2-7), Oakland favored by 1 1/2

Curious line in this game. The Vikings are better at home, and the Raiders are pretty up and down, but still, just a 1 1/2 point favorite? If I gambled for real, this game would be my biggest play. Michael Bush is a more than capable fill in for Darren McFadden, and Carson Palmer seemed to shake off the rust last week at San Diego. Vikings QB Christian Ponder is still learning, so it will be on Adrian Peterson's shoulders to have a big game if the Vikings hope to spring the upset.

Prediction: Oakland 28, Minnesota 20

Dallas (5-4) at Washington (3-6), Dallas favored by 7 1/2

With two straight wins the Cowboys are back in the discussion for the NFC East. With five straight losses the Redskins are in the discussion for a Top 5 draft pick. The Redskins went back to Rex Grossman after it was becoming apparent that they had somehow found another quarterback that was actually worse than Rex in John Beck. Rex was able to move the offense against Miami, but then remembered that he is garbage and threw a terrible interception at the goal line. Leonard Hankerson made his presence known in that game, so of course he hurt himself and is now out for the season. Hopefully, RB Roy Helu get's the start in this game, because aside from a couple quarters against St. Louis Ryan Torain has done nothing. I am positive we will see Tony Romo hit Dez Bryant for a long touchdown at some point, and expect Jason Witten to kill the Redskins linebackers. DeMarco Murray and the returning Felix Jones will also have good games. All of that being said, I think the Redskins will score not one, but two touchdowns!!! Sadly, while it will be enough to cover the spread, it won't be enough to win the game.

Prediction: Dallas 24, Washington 17

Cincinnati (6-3) at Baltimore (6-3), Baltimore favored by 7

Cincinnati gave the Steelers a battle but showed that they are still way too young and inexperienced to compete with the best. The Ravens did what they have done just about all season, follow up a huge win, with an embarrassing loss. LB Ray Lewis will probably miss his first game since 2007, but the Ravens are talented enough on defense where that won't be too much of a loss. The Bengals are hoping that A.J. Green can play, as they really missed him in the latter stages of the Steelers game. The Bengals running game has been stagnant as of late, and I don't expect the Ravens to let Cedric Benson get 100 yards like Marshawn Lynch did last weekend. This is another game for the Bengals where they will come close but just short of a win.

Prediction: Baltimore 20, Cincinnati 14

Seattle (3-6) at St. Louis (2-7), St. Louis favored by 2

The Seahawks have a terrible record but their wins against 6-3 Baltimore, and 6-3 New York Giants are impressive. They might have the building blocks to be a contender next season. The Rams squeaked out a win in Cleveland, so Sam Bradford will be looking for his first home win of the season. The Seahawks are generally an awful road team, so the Rams are the pick here.

Prediction: St. Louis 17, Seattle 14

Arizona (3-6) at San Francisco (8-1), San Francisco favored by 9 1/2

The Niners were in the spotlight last weekend and responded, beating the Giants in a great game. I wasn't surprised that San Francisco won, but I was surprised that they were able to win without an effective running game. It seemed the formula to beat the 49ers was stop the running game and make Alex Smith beat you. But Smith made plays when he needed to and while he is still mediocre, has improved vastly from when he was a liability. Defensively, the 49ers have one of the best defenses, if not the best defense in the league. They would have to play an A game to beat Green Bay, but their defense makes me believe that they definitely can compete with the Packers. Oh, about this game against Arizona this weekend? The Cardinals have won two straight, but those wins come against sorry teams. This weekend, John Skelton remembers that he isn't very good.

Prediction: San Francisco 27, Arizona 17

Tennessee (5-4) at Atlanta (5-4), Atlanta favored by 6

By record this is the second best game of the weekend, but only 4 people in the country are probably talking about it. Mike Smith was getting killed all week for his questionable decision to go for it on 4th and inches in overtime at his own 29. The stat geeks have all their numbers of why it was a good idea, but stats don't overrule common sense. Have some faith in your defense, and don't worry about what happened in a game with different plays last year or two years ago. The Titans played great defensively last weekend against Carolina, and should have some swagger going into this game. I expect this one to go back and forth and come down to who has the ball last. Unfortunately for the Titans it will be Matty Ice that leads the Falcons to a game winning drive.

Prediction: Atlanta 28, Tennessee 24

San Diego (4-5) at Chicago (6-3), Chicago favored by 3 1/2

Do people finally believe me that the Chargers suck? I wanted to pick Oakland to beat them last weekend but caved to pressure from all the dumdums who insisted the Chargers were actually good. Philip Rivers isn't playing well this season, they don't have any sort of identity on offense and add terrible coaching to that, and you have a 4-5 team. Maybe this is finally the year that Norv Turner get's the axe. Has there ever been a coach as bad as him that has gotten such long leashes and as many chances? The Bears are on fire right now, winners of four straight. The offense is clicking, especially the running game, the offensive line is coming together, and the defense is playing outstanding. Not to mention their special teams with Devin Hester is dangerous as always. It will be fun watching Rivers and Jay Cutler duel again. They never liked each other when Cutler was at Denver, so there could be some back and forth in this game.

Prediction: Chicago 28, San Diego 21

Philadelphia (3-6) at New York Giants (6-3), New York Giants favored by 4 1/2

I kept believing the Eagles were too talented to be as bad as their record indicated and eventually would turn on the burners. But after losing at home to Arizona and John Skelton, I accept that my Super Bowl pick may only win six games this season. They are the second worst coached team in the league and for as much good as Andy Reid has done in Philadelphia I believe it is time for a new voice. The Eagles are also more proof that just putting together a bunch of players from free agency hardly ever works. I should have known that after watching the Redskins try it for years, but I thought the Eagles were different because they were actually good before making all the signings this past off-season. As for the Giants, I don't agree that Eli Manning is elite but he did make some very impressive throws against the 49ers. It will be fitting this Sunday when the most hyped team in the league has the final nail put in their coffin on a national stage.

Prediction: New York Giants 29, Philadelphia 21

Monday, November 21

Kansas City (4-5) at New England (6-3), New England favored by 14 1/2

The Chiefs get to stink up prime time for the next two weeks. They wouldn't have been all that appealing to watch with Matt Cassel, and now with him out and Tyler Palko starting, it will be downright ugly for them against the Patriots this Monday night and the Steelers next Sunday night. The Patriots took back control of the AFC East with an impressive win over the Jets and showed that while they aren't near what they were in their dynasty days, they still won't lose three straight games as long as Bill Belichick is coach. I expect the offense to have another strong game and Palko to struggle mightily for the Chiefs.

Prediction: New England 34, Kansas City 10

Last Week Straight Up: 7-9
Overall Straight Up: 90-56

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-9
Overall Against the Spread: 71-72-3

Cram Session - Week 12

2011-11-16T11:02:00.029-05:00

Thursday, November 17

New York Jets (5-4) at Denver (4-5), New York Jets favored by 6

The Denver Broncos beat the Kansas City Chiefs even though Tim Tebow completed just two passes the entire game. One of those passes was a long bomb to Eric Decker, but that stat line will probably remain the most mystifying stat line of a winning quarterback in the history of the NFL. I'm not hating on Tebow though, Denver is 3-1 since he became the starter and at the end of the day, the quarterback gets the blame when the team loses, so he deserves the credit if they win. That being said, there is not a chance in hell the Broncos can beat the New York Jets by only completing two passes. I think the Broncos can have success running the ball but they will need to find some semblance of balance. I happen to think that they will. Everyone is so sure that the Jets can destroy Denver, but the Jets are coming off a very quick turnaround, playing a Sunday night game, to a Thursday night game. Not to mention that Sunday night game was a demoralizing loss to the New England Patriots. The Jets have been up and down all season, and after everyone was feeling good during their three game winning streak, Jets fans are back on the ledge now. Mark Sanchez is not showing the type of improvement in year three that the Jets would have liked, and the Jets remain a team that has to effectively run the ball to win. Shonn Greene will get the carries tonight, with LaDainian Tomlinson out with an injury. People think this game could be a blowout, but I expect the Broncos to hang around and keep it interesting, just can't see Tebow beating this defense.

Prediction: New York Jets 19, Denver 13

Games That Matter to Me

#16 Nebraska (8-2, 4-2) at #18 Michigan (8-2, 4-2)

Nebraska was in a tough spot last week, taking on Penn State in a highly emotional atmosphere, and was able to come away with the win. As I predicted the Nittany Lions came out flat, then battled back but the Husker showed poise in holding on to the victory. Now they travel to Michigan Stadium. The Huskers likely won't play for the Big Ten championship but if they win out they would likely be able to earn an at-large BCS bid. The Wolverines have had one of their better seasons in years and a lot of that has to do with the vastly improved play of their defense. Michigan is 5th in the country in points allowed per game, giving up just 15 points per contest. The only time their defense has looked vulnerable this season is when they gave up 31 points to Notre Dame in Week 2. QB Denard Robinson isn't quite as electrifying as he was last season, and his passing numbers are down considerably from last season. He is only completing 52% of his passes and has thrown 13 INTs. However, he still remains a threat running the ball, as he has racked up 12 rushing TDs. That being said, the last four weeks his yardage has been way down and he has struggled with injuries. Sophomore Fitzgerald Touissant is the Wolverines other rushing option, and he is coming off a monster game against Illinois. Touissant rushed for 192 yards and a touchdown in the Wolverines 31-14 victory over the Illini. The story remains the same for the Huskers, if Rex Burkhead can rush the ball effectively, Nebraska will likely win. He was able to do that against a stout Penn State defense, so I think he can against Michigan. The difference will be, whereas Penn State has no offense, the Wolverines can actually score. Plus, I think its a lot to ask of the Huskers to win at Penn State and at Michigan in back to back weeks.

Prediction: Michigan 24, Nebraska 17

Boston College (3-7) at Notre Dame (7-3)

In recent history Senior Day hasn't always been kind to the Irish. With Boston College's poor record this game reminds me of when Syracuse came to South Bend a few years ago and stunned Notre Dame. However, I believe this Irish squad is much better than that flawed team. The Irish looked fantastic in person last weekend, although the ineptness of the Twerps helped their cause. The only chance Boston College has in this game is if the Irish revert back to their bumbling, turnover prone form they have shown far too often this season. The Eagles are atrocious on offense and not much better on defense. The Eagles have no real play makers on offense so they will count on their best player, the nation's leading tackler LB Luke Kuechly. The Irish will say goodbye to Michael Floyd, probably the best wide receiver in Notre Dame history. Floyd will end up being a great pro I believe, and not a bust as Golden Tate appears to be. QB Dayne Crist might also see some action if the game get's hand out of hand, as he is also a senior.

Prediction: Notre Dame 48, Boston College 17

Top 10 - Thursday, November 17

North Carolina (6-4, 2-4) at #8 Virginia Tech (9-1, 5-1)

The Hokies are a hard team to figure out. They scratched and clawed their way to an impressive road win over Georgia Tech and are in the driver's seat for another ACC Championship game. Their rivals, the Virginia Cavaliers are still lurking, and the Hokies can't look past the Tar Heels tonight. Carolina is stumbling coming into this game, losing three of four and suffered an embarrassing shut out against NC State in their last game. Hokies win on Senior Night, and with Virginia having to play Florida State this weekend, may even end up clinching the Coastal division this weekend.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, North Carolina 13

Friday, November 18

#2 Oklahoma State (10-0, 7-0) at Iowa State (5-4, 2-4)

This has trap game written all over it. The Cowboys have almost taken care of business leading into their Bedlam battle with Oklahoma. Because of that I think the Cowboys may come out a little flat for this one, but the road has proven to be no issue for Oklahoma State all season. That was never more evident than the complete destruction they put on Texas Tech in Lubbock last weekend, in a 66-6 rout. A slow start won't be enough for the Cyclones to spring the huge upset, but it may allow them to cover the spread.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 47, Iowa State 24

Saturday, November 19

#1 LSU (10-0, 6-0) at Ole Miss (2-8, 0-6)

The Houston Nutt era is slowly, and pathetically coming to an end. As for LSU, they want to keep everyone healthy and be ready to host Arkansas next Friday.

Prediction: LSU 41, Ole Miss 3

Georgia Southern (9-1) at #3 Alabama (9-1)

This is titanic clash of 9-1 teams. Well, not quite. Georgia Southern has done pretty well in the FCS but this is their first test against an FBS team. I don't believe they will completely embarrass themselves and I even predict they will be able to score a touchdown on the vaunted Tide defense. Alabama will definitely be looking ahead to next Saturday when they have a chance to get revenge on Auburn for last season in the Iron Bowl.

Prediction: Alabama 38, Georgia Southern 7

USC (8-2, 5-2) at #4 Oregon (9-1, 7-0)

The Ducks continue to rule the Pac-10, now 12. I thought Stanford, especially being at home would be the the ones to knock Oregon off, but Oregon completely dominated the Cardinal. With that win they have entered themselves back into contention for the national championship. They have another test this weekend when they host USC. The Trojans have had a strong season but because of NCAA sanctions aren't eligible for a bowl, the Pac 12 championship or even to be ranked this season. USC QB Matt Barkley has been outstanding all season and figures to be leaving a year early for the pros. He may be without his favorite target for this game, WR Robert Woods. Woods has been dealing with several injuries and is highly questionable for the game. If he doesn't play that considerably hurts the Trojans chances. The presence and domination of LaMichael James will be the difference in this one.

Prediction: Oregon 41, USC 31

#5 Oklahoma (8-1, 5-1) at #22 Baylor (6-3, 3-3)

There are a couple intriguing subplots to this game. One is seeing Baylor QB Robert Griffin III go up against the Sooners defense, and the other is how the Sooners offense responds to losing WR Ryan Broyles for the season. It will be up to WR Kenny Stills to step up in Broyles absence. Despite what looks like a worse loss each passing week to Texas Tech, the Sooners are still very much in contention to play for the BCS Championship. Baylor barely eeked out a victory against awful Kansas, and will have to play out of their minds to have any chance in this game. I think Griffin can keep it interesting, but he can only do so much, and eventually the Sooners advantage in talent will carry them to a win.

Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Baylor 30

Mississippi (5-5, 1-5) at #6 Arkansas (9-1, 5-1)

The Razorbacks have remained under the radar most of the season and probably like it that way. They will have their chance to gain national recognition when they face #1 LSU next week. Until then, I expect they will just keep winning games.

Prediction: Arkansas 33, Mississippi State 19

#7 Clemson (9-1, 6-1) at NC State (5-5, 2-4)

Clemson clinched the Atlantic Division last week and is just playing out the string in this game. They still have very outside hopes of playing for the national championship, so maybe Dabo Swinney can use that to motivate his Tigers against NC State. He will need to do a lot to get them motivated as NC State just lost to an awful Boston College team. Clemson has had a pattern of starting slow as of late and finishing strong. I expect that to be the case in this game as well.

Prediction: Clemson 34, NC State 21

California (6-4, 3-4) at #9 Stanford (9-1, 7-1)

Stanford saw their Pac-12 title hopes and national title hopes go up in smoke last weekend. Andrew Luck's Heisman campaign also took a hit. I expect for Luck to get that back on track this weekend.

Prediction: Stanford 37, California 24

#10 Boise State (8-1, 3-1) at San Diego State (6-3, 3-2)

I was having a lot of success picking chalk for most of the season, but the upset bug has started creeping in. Boise fell victim to that last weekend, as they suffered a heartbreaking loss to TCU. While their national championship hopes are dashed, they still have a chance at a BCS bowl. They have to win their last three games though in order to have a chance to accomplish that. San Diego State is a decent team and Boise might have some struggles on the road. However, I can't see them losing two straight so I like them in a closer than the experts think result.

Prediction: Boise State 28, San Diego State 21

Last Week: 7-3
Overall: 96-12

The Hail Mary - Week 10

2011-11-10T15:55:00.034-05:00

Middle ground doesn't exist with this week's games. There are either game between good teams or games between bad teams. Thankfully, the games between good teams are some really good ones, which could have a huge impact on the playoff race as the second half of the season kicks into gear.

Week 10 - Sunday, November 13

New Orleans (6-3) at Atlanta (5-3), Line is Even

This is one of those good games I was talking about. The Saints can either get a leg up in the NFC South with a win or the Falcons can move into first place for the first time this season. The Saints have been a Jekyll and Hyde team all season. They have been at their best when at home, but the road has proven to be a struggle. Their last road game was their most embarrassing performance of the season, when they were soundly defeated by the Rams. The Falcons are coming off their bye and currently are on a three game winning streak. Michael Turner has been running well as of late and Matt Ryan has improved his play after a slow start to the season. Home field advantage doesn't mean nearly as much in the NFL as it does college but the Saints are the exception to that rule. I think these two teams are very evenly matched, so will give the Falcons the edge at home.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, New Orleans 23

Pittsburgh (6-3) at Cincinnati (6-2), Pittsburgh favored by 3

Now is the time where we find out just how real the 6-2 Bengals are. In their next four games they play the Steelers twice and the Ravens once. I thought the Bengals were going to be the worst team in the league. They just seemed way too young and I had no idea QB Andy Dalton would be so poised in his rookie season. The Steelers are coming off a stomach punch loss at home to Baltimore. The defense, which had been playing better, couldn't get off the field on third down and then let Joe Unibrow drive the Ravens 92 yards for the game winning touchdown. I think Mike Tomlin will have the Steelers seething after that loss and a tough week of practice. I expect the defense to play well, and cause Dalton to make some rookie mistakes. I am picking against Cincy for the third straight week, maybe I will finally be right this time.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 22, Cincinnati 16

St. Louis (1-7) at Cleveland (3-5), Cleveland favored by 2 1/2

These teams suck and anyone who watches this game probably hates themselves.

Prediction: Cleveland 6, St. Louis 2

Buffalo (5-3) at Dallas (4-4), Dallas favored by 5 1/2

Dallas seems entirely overvalued by Vegas. They have one good win this whole season, and that was back in Week 2 against a 49ers team that was nowhere near the team they are now. The Bills did stumble badly at home last week against the Jets but I am not ready to say this is the beginning of their descent. Fred Jackson will be ready to bounce back after an awful game last week and I think Ryan Fitzpatrick and the passing game will have success moving the ball on the Cowboys. Dallas has been inconsistent all season and this just feels like a game they are going to lose.

Prediction: Buffalo 28, Dallas 24

Jacksonville (2-6) at Indianapolis (0-9), Jacksonville favored by 3

Call me crazy but I think this is the week the Colts finally get a victory. It will be ugly and this is another game where if you hate yourself you will be watching but the Colts aren't going to go 0-16. They have to win sometime and this is as good a chance as any.

Prediction: Indianapolis 10, Jacksonville 9

Denver (3-5) at Kansas City (4-4), Kansas City favored by 3

I hate it when there are games where I have a feeling about them and then I talk myself out of it. That happened last night when I didn't pick Oakland to beat San Diego, and happened last week when I didn't pick Miami to beat Kansas City. The Chiefs are an incredibly hard team to read. When they lose they seem to lose in spectacularly embarrassing fashion. Tim Tebow stood in the face of his doubters and played well enough to keep his job for another week. To be playing for your job is a tremendous amount of pressure from week to week. Sure, he still isn't accurate but his touchdown throws were some pretty throws and he is a huge threat running the ball. This is a very tough game to get a read on, but I am leaning Chiefs so I will listen and not talk myself out of it.

Prediction: Kansas City 26, Denver 21

Washington (3-5) at Miami (1-7), Miami favored by 3 1/2

Zero buzz about this game around Washington as it is obvious the season is doomed and the fans have checked out. John Beck returns to Miami, still looking for his first win ever as an NFL starter. I agreed with the move to Beck at the time but am not really seeing any justification for sticking with him at this point. He is missing some key players, but Santana Moss and Chris Cooley weren't setting the world on fire for Rex Grossman. The offense has looked terrible the past two weeks, with Beck hearkening back to the check down days of Mark Brunell. The Dolphins have played well for the past two weeks and they seem due for a home win. Things have gotten so bad in Washington, that Skins fans aren't even going to blink when Washington loses this game.

Prediction: Miami 17, Washington 14

Arizona (2-6) at Philadelphia (3-5), No Line

The Eagles are a maddening team. They seem scared to death of success or something. Once again they blew a fourth quarter lead and now their season is on life support. This game might have been interesting if Kevin Kolb was able to start for Arizona but instead its just John Skelton coming to Philly and not the return of Kolb. The Eagles should pummel the Cardinals, but at the very least, just need to win.

Prediction: Philadelphia 34, Arizona 17

Houston (6-3) at Tampa Bay (4-4), Houston favored by 3

Tough game to call here. Tampa Bay is completely mediocre but I still am not quite sure what to make of Houston. They have won three straight despite missing their best player on offense and defense, so they should be lauded for that. I might be more inclined to buy in if they can win at Tampa. The running game has been phenomenal for Houston, with Arian Foster and Ben Tate each contributing big games. This is now a passing league but as the Texans and Niners have shown, if you can run the ball successfully and consistently you will do pretty well. I think Tampa will slow down that run game just a bit this week, enough to get them the semi upset.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 21, Houston 20

Tennessee (4-4) at Carolina (2-6), Carolina favored by 3

I would take Carolina in this game but after they dropped what should have been a win at home against Minnesota it just doesn't seem like a smart pick. The Titans are certainly stumbling but with a veteran leader like Matt Hasselbeck I think they can win a game on the road against the rookie Cam Newton. The Panthers still just make too many mistakes, and will find some way to shoot themselves in the foot.

Prediction: Tennessee 28, Carolina 27

Baltimore (6-2) at Seattle (2-6), Baltimore favored by 7

That win for the Ravens over the Steelers was impressive but not impressive enough for me to completely forget how they couldn't cover against Jacksonville or Arizona in the two weeks prior. The Seahawks are awful, but I can just see Flacco struggle in this game, and the Ravens to suffer a let down after last week's big win. However, the Seahawks are so bad that the Ravens can still win this game with a letdown.

Prediction: Baltimore 20, Seattle 14

Detroit (6-2) at Chicago (5-3), Chicago favored by 1 1/2

The Bears are looking like contenders. Since losing at Detroit on Monday night the Bears have run off three straight victories. The offensive line has played much better, which has allowed Jay Cutler to play exceptionally. Matt Forte continues to be an offensive weapon, and the defense has been strong all season. The shine is coming off the Lions a bit. They are completely one dimensional on offense. It is Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson and that's it. That is a great weapon to have, but they need to establish some semblance of a running game if they want to be successful. The key to their win over Chicago was the crowd and the implosion of the Bears offensive line. Neither of those figure to be in play this time around, so I like the Bears in this game.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Detroit 21

New York Giants (6-2) at San Francisco (7-1), San Francisco favored by 3 1/2

It is the game of the weekend! It is so awesome to see the 49ers playing in big games again. Giants/Niners was a huge rivalry in the late 80's and early 90's, so its cool to see a battle of the titans between these two teams. The Eli Manning bandwagon is officially full after his quarterbacking led the Giants to a comeback win over New England. I was impressed at how he was able to lead them down the field, despite being without his best playmaker Hakeem Nicks. The defense was getting pressure on Tom Brady and is looking like the defense from a few years ago that won the Giants a Super Bowl. As for the 49ers it wasn't pretty but they controlled the game against the Skins and have a championship defense. Alex Smith continues to simply do what is asked of him, while Frank Gore carries the team. I know that formula isn't sustainable all season, so Smith will be called upon at some point to make some big plays. This is a great test for the 49ers and could have huge playoff implications. The NFC West is all but wrapped up but the Niners have a great shot at getting a first round bye. However, if they lose this game they will slip to third behind the Giants, and the Giants will own the tiebreaker. I have to go total homer with my pick and pick the Niners. I worry that this is the week Gore slows down but I think the defense can make enough plays to compensate.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, New York Giants 20

New England (5-3) at New York Jets (5-3), New York Jets favored by 1 1/2

Funny how quickly things change in the NFL. A few weeks ago it was the Jets that were in free fall, while the Patriots were sitting pretty. Those roles have now reversed as the Jets are riding a three game winning streak, while the Patriots have dropped two straight. The New England offense hasn't looked all that great for three games in a row now. The Jets defense on the other hand seems to be rounding back into their 2009 and 2010 form. The offense, while not quite the running team they had been, is finally seeming to go back to their identity of ball control. I can't remember the last time New England has lost three games. I think coach Bill Genius is losing his touch a bit but I can't pick the Patriots to drop a third straight game.

Prediction: New England 25, New York Jets 24

Monday, November 14

Minnesota (2-6) at Green Bay (8-0), Green Bay favored by 13 1/2

The Vikings gave Green Bay a scare when they played in Minnesota so I don't think the Packers should take this game for granted. If Adrian Peterson can run the ball well like he did in the last game these teams played, the Vikings might have a chance to pull off a miracle upset. Hell, who am I kidding? Aaron Rodgers is going to play near perfect again the Vikings will get a backdoor cover with a touchdown late.

Prediction: Green Bay 30, Minnesota 17

Last Week Straight Up: 7-7
Overall Straight Up: 83-47

Last Week Against the Spread: 8-6
Overall Against the Spread: 64-63-3

Cram Session - Week 11

2011-11-09T11:11:00.025-05:00

Starting tonight Thursday NFL games begin so for the last few Cram Sessions I will be leading them with my prediction for the Thursday NFL game or games.

Thursday, November 10

Oakland (4-4) at San Diego (4-4), San Diego favored by 7

Who wants to win the AFC West? Now that the San Francisco 49ers are actually good, the AFC West has decided to take the mantle of western division with nothing but mediocre teams. The Raiders had a great chance to get some separation last week but couldn't overcome the magical force of Tebow, and Willis McGahee, although I don't think McGahee is magical. The Chargers played their usual game last weekend against the Packers. They showed enough flashes to fool people into thinking they are contenders, but couldn't get out of their own way and eventually fell to the Packers. Carson Palmer played alright last weekend, throwing 3 touchdown passes, but he also had 2 critical interceptions and couldn't bring the Raiders back when they were losing late. The Raiders will be without Darren McFadden once again, but Michael Bush filled in adequately last weekend and is a good number 2 to have. I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched so I will give the Chargers the win because of the home field advantage. However, don't get it twisted, the Chargers are still mediocre at best.

Prediction: San Diego 24, Oakland 20

Games That Matter to Me

#19 Nebraska (7-2, 3-2) at #12 Penn State (8-1, 5-0)

Believe it or not Penn State has a football game this weekend. Football has been the last thing on the minds of anyone in Happy Valley this week. All of you reading know about the scandal that has rocked the school and led to the ouster of coach Joe Paterno after 46 years at the helm. Because of that, I won't delve into too much, although I will say the Board of Trustees made the right decision by removing Paterno immediately, instead of letting him retire at the end of the season. Paterno has been replaced for the rest of the season by his defensive coordinator Tom Bradley.

Nebraska is coming off an embarrassing home loss to a bad Northwestern team. As I feared the Huskers felt a little too good about themselves are whooping Michigan State, and didn't come ready to play. They also were befallen by a crucial Rex Burkhead fumble near the goal line, something that seems to be a theme with teams I cheer for. The Huskers now get to play at Penn State in what will be the most surreal game of their lives. There is no telling what kind of atmosphere Beaver Stadium will be Saturday. The Huskers are the lucky ones though, they have been able to do nothing but concentrate on football this week. Surely they have been studying the Nittany Lion defense, which is third in the country in points allowed. The Huskers running game stalled against Northwestern and because of how one dimensional they are on offense, it led to the less. Plain and simply, Burkhead and even Taylor Martinez have to run well for Nebraska to win.

For as good as Penn State is on defense, they are equally bad on offense. They have split between ginger Matt McGloin and Rob Bolden at quarterback, with McGloin stepping forward as the less of two evils. In his last start against Illinois McGloin completed just 37.5% of his passes. With their struggles in the passing game, Penn State has leaned on RB Silas Reid. Reid has rushed for over 100 yards in his last five games, and his lowest output in that stretch was 129 yards on the ground. The Huskers defense wasn't able to get the stops when they needed them against Northwestern, but should be helped by the fact that they can focus much of their attention on Reid and not worry about the Penn State passing game.

It will be fascinating to watch how Penn State responds to this crazy week. I think their have been way too many distractions and the team is going to be shell shocked. If they are able to win this game, I think it will be one of the greatest accomplishments in the history of sports.

Prediction: Nebraska 24, Penn State 13

Maryland (2-7) "at" Notre Dame (6-3), FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland

I will be attending this game Saturday night. With how awful the Twerps have been this season, I expect that I will fit right in with many Notre Dame fans. The Irish had a non-descript victory over Wake Forest last weekend. They didn't play well offensively, but the defense made enough plays for them to hold onto the win. Maryland is a mess and I will be very disappointed if the Irish have to hold on late to win this game. Maryland can't settle on a quarterback, continuously going back and forth between Danny O'Brien and C.J. Brown. It is apparent that Randy Edsall has sapped O'Brien of all the confidence he gained last season when he was ACC Freshman of the Year. The Terps rushing attack is led by Davin Meggett but he hasn't rushed for over 100 yards since doing it against Towson a few months ago.

There isn't really much to say about this game. The Irish clearly have the edge in talent and should blow past Maryland. The offense needs to play precise and quit turning the ball over. This is a chance to have an impressive performance, hopefully the Irish take advantage.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Maryland 17

Top 10 - Thursday, November 10

#10 Virginia Tech (8-1, 4-1) at #21 Georgia Tech (7-2, 4-2)

For all the crap that the ACC takes as a football conference, they do have two teams in the Top 10. That being said, I don't even think Hokies fans would tell you they believe Virginia Tech is a top 10 team this year. That being said, if they win this game they will be in the driver's seat to have a spot in the ACC Championship game in December. The player to watch on Tech is quarterback Logan Thomas. Thomas came into the season with high expectations due to his height and athleticism. He has played pretty well this year and is a threat both throwing and running. Being just a sophomore he has given Hokie fans high hopes for the next two seasons. As is usually the case, the Hokies have a powerful rushing attack behind David Wilson. Wilson has rushed for over 100 yards in every game but one this season. The Hokies love to grind out victories behind Wilson. Wilson allows them to control the clock and keep the defense well rested. That will be a key in this game as the defense will have its hands full with Georgia Tech's high powered offense. The Yellow Jackets offense got back on track in their last game at home against Clemson and is clearly a different unit at home than away. QB Tevin Washington is the key for the Yellow Jackets. When teams like Miami and Virginia slowed him down, it put the whole offense out of whack. I believe that with the home crowd rocking, he will play well and the Yellow Jackets will get a huge win.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 27, Virginia Tech 20

Saturday, November 12

Western Kentucky (5-4) at #1 LSU (9-0)

LSU won the game of the field goals last week and now seems on their way to playing for the BCS National Championship. Their only challenge left is when they host Arkansas on Thanksgiving weekend. I expect a slight hangover effect this weekend, especially with such an easy opponent coming to Baton Rouge. All that will mean is that instead of winning by 50 plus, the Tigers will win by 38.

Prediction: LSU 44, Western Kentucky 6

#2 Oklahoma State (9-0, 6-0) at Texas Tech (5-4, 2-4)

The Cowboys received quite a scare at home from Kansas State last weekend. However, they survived and are just two road wins away from a huge Bedlam showdown against Oklahoma. Their game this week looked a lot scarier three weeks ago after Texas Tech had knocked off the Sooners. But since then the Red Raiders were destroyed at home by Iowa State, and then destroyed on the road by Texas. The only reason the Red Raiders beat the Sooners was they were able to create turnovers. Without those turnovers their defense is one of the worst in the country. Cowboys QB Brandon Wheeden can be interception prone so I think that will keep the Red Raiders hopes up for a bit, but just too much Wheeden and Blackmon for the Red Raiders to spring the upset.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 49, Texas Tech 31

#3 Alabama (8-1, 5-1) at Mississippi State (5-4, 1-4)

The Crimson Tide are licking their wounds after blowing their home game against LSU. Awful special teams play and a questionable trick play call on offense led to their downfall. Despite the loss they dropped just one spot in the BCS Standings and are still very much alive in the national championship race. The Bulldogs have been a major disappointment this season. Their offense has regressed tremendously from last season and hasn't scored enough to complement a very good defense. The Bulldogs defense will keep them in this game, but their offense is going to have some major trouble scoring on Bama.

Prediction: Alabama 27, Mississippi State 9

#7 Oregon (8-1, 6-0) at #4 Stanford (9-0, 7-0)

This is the game of the weekend. Stanford looked primed to move up to number three in the BCS Standings but instead still sits behind one loss Alabama. A win at home over Oregon though should vault the Cardinal, while a loss will end their national title hopes. The Ducks still have outside thoughts of playing for the national championship. The winner of this game will take over the lead in the Pac-12 North standings and be on their way to playing in the first ever Pac-12 championship. Both teams have tremendous rushing attacks, while the Cardinal have the edge at quarterback with Andrew Luck. People think the Ducks defense might finally be what stops Luck. If this game were at Oregon I would definitely pick the Ducks, but this is one of those games where there isn't much that separates the two teams. Because of that, I will go with home field advantage and Stanford to continue their unbeaten season.

Prediction: Stanford 34, Oregon 31

TCU (7-2, 4-0) at #5 Boise State (8-0, 3-0)

This game looked a lot sexier back in September. TCU dropped their first game of the season to Baylor, then lost at home to SMU. They have recovered since then but I still don't think they are on the Broncos level. This is another game where maybe if it were at TCU I could see the upset happening but I can't even remember the last time Boise lost on their blue turf.

Prediction: Boise State 27, TCU 16

Tennessee (4-5, 0-5) at #8 Arkansas (8-1, 4-1)

No one talked about it last weekend but the Razorbacks won the second biggest game of the week when they defeated South Carolina. I think the Razorbacks will have a great shot at knocking off LSU when they play to close the regular season. Before that though, Arkansas has to continue taking care of business. It is really strange to see Tennessee with an 0-5 SEC record. It will look even stranger when it is 0-6 after this weekend.

Prediction: Arkansas 28, Tennessee 10

Wake Forest (5-4, 4-2) at #9 Clemson (8-1, 5-1)

Clemson plays their first game since watching their national championship dreams evaporate against Georgia Tech. They still control their destiny for playing in the ACC Championship but can't suffer a let down against Wake Forest. This is a huge game for Wake, which has struggled in recent weeks but with a victory in this game would take over first place in the ACC Atlantic Division. That's a nice story and all but too much firepower on the Clemson offense will be the Demon Deacons undoing.

Prediction: Clemson 41, Wake Forest 27

Last Week: 7-2
Overall: 86-9

The Hail Mary - Week 9

2011-11-03T16:18:00.029-04:00

After the last couple weeks being extremely underwhelming when it came to games between good teams, there are plenty this weekend. There are six games between teams with winning records and even the Monday Night game is a good one, as the Eagles are much better than their 3-4 record indicates. We are now at the halfway mark of the season, and it becomes more and more clear who are contenders and who are pretenders.

Week 9 - Sunday, November 6

New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo (5-2), Buffalo favored by 1 1/2

The Jets are searching for their first road win of the season, while the Bills are undefeated at home. Sometimes things are just too obvious and you can get trapped by them, but its hard to pick against the Bills in this game. The Jets have been underwhelming on the road all season and have never gotten their running game going. The Jets can only win if Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson have an impact on the game. The Bills pass rush came alive against Washington last weekend and it might give them the confidence to make that a consistent part of their defensive attack. They already have a very opportunistic defense and I expect them to force Mark Sanchez into some mistakes. This game will be a tight, back and forth battle between division rivals, but I think Fred Jackson will carry the Bills through a close win.

Prediction: Buffalo 24, New York Jets 20

Seattle (2-5) at Dallas (3-4), Dallas favored by 12

It was a pleasure to watch the Cowboys and their overrated defensive coordinator Rob Ryan embarrassed by the Eagles last Sunday night. The Cowboys will get to a face a team more to their talent level this weekend, when they host the Seahawks. I expect DeMarco Murray to have a big game, and the Cowboys to get their passing game going, which was non-existent last weekend. However, a line that big? I know the Cowboys covered at home against St. Louis a few weeks ago, but I have a hard time picking a 3-4 team to cover a 12 point spread.

Prediction: Dallas 24, Seattle 13

Atlanta (4-3) at Indianapolis (0-8), Atlanta favored by 7

After a sluggish start the Falcons might be ready to make a run at the NFC South. The Saints have been unable to pull away, and the Falcons schedule lightens up considerably in the second half of the season. The Colts best chance at getting a win will be when they host Jacksonville next week. Until then, they just want to avoid being embarrassed and be somewhat competitive.

Prediction: Atlanta 29, Indianapolis 17

Miami (0-7) at Kansas City (4-3), Kansas City favored by 5

The Dolphins teased their fans by leading most of the game against the Giants, before remembering that they suck and lost their 10th straight game dating back to last season. The Chiefs, who looked dead after and 0-3 start and having their best players drop like flies, have won four in a row and find themselves in first place in the AFC West. The emergence of Jackie Battle to the running game, and now WR Jonathan Baldwin appearing ready to make an impact has the Chiefs feeling good about their chances.

Prediction: Kansas City 22, Miami 15

Tampa Bay (4-3) at New Orleans (5-3), New Orleans favored by 8

The Saints are definitely two teams in one. On the road, they are listless, can't stop anybody and appear to be at best a middle of the pack team. At home, their offense is a juggernaut, their defense creates turnovers and they look like a Super Bowl contender. Fortunately for them, they will be hosting Tampa this weekend and will be an angry team looking for revenge. The anger comes from the embarrassment of handing the Rams their first win of the season, and at one point trailing 24-0. The revenge factor comes from them trying to atone their loss at Tampa a few weeks ago. Tampa has played the Saints well in New Orleans, winning their the last two seasons. Because of that I like them to keep it close, but the Saints needs this win to get back on track and will get it.

Prediction: New Orleans 28, Tampa Bay 21

San Francisco (6-1) at Washington (3-4), San Francisco favored by 3 1/2

I will be at FedEx Field for this one, getting to see my beloved 49ers in person for the first time in my life. Wow, that is really hard to believe. I guess that's what happens when your favorite team lives across the country from you. I knew I wanted to go to this game before the season started but I expected I would be going to see a bad Niners team try to pull off an upset. Instead, the Skins are the bad team looking to pull the upset. The Niners now have a four game lead in the NFC West and could possibly clinch the division as early as Thanksgiving. The Skins look like a perfect matchup for them. The Niners success has been the roll that Frank Gore and the running game has been on. The Redskins as of late can't stop anyone on the ground. Another benefit for the 49ers is the Redskins offense is in shambles. It reached the ultimate level of embarrassment against Buffalo, when Mike Shanahan saw an offensive team of his shut out for the first time ever. The offensive line is in tatters and you know that Justin Smith is licking his chops. The Niners will win if Gore goes over 100 yards again and the rush defense plays like it has all season. John Beck won't be passing the Skins to any victories so their only chance is if Alex Smith makes mistakes, instead of being a capable game manager like he has been all season. I think the Skins will show pride at home, but I think the line Vegas gave this game is generous for a 49ers cover.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, Washington 14

Cleveland (3-4) at Houston (5-3), Houston favored by 11

This was a tough game for me to pick. Not straight up, as I love Houston but to cover 11? Normally, I would say no way but the Browns may be down to their 3rd string running back in this game, a guy whose name is too hard to spell for me to even bother trying. Plus, QB Colt McCoy has proven that he probably isn't the long term answer at quarterback. However, knowing the history of the Texans and their coach Gary Kubiak anything is possible.

Prediction: Houston 27, Cleveland 14

Cincinnati (5-2) at Tennessee (4-3), Tennessee favored by 3

No one would have guessed that this game would be a crucial game when it came to potential playoff spots. I thought the Bengals would be the worst team in the league but on the backs of a strong defense, and the beastly play of WR A.J. Green they are right in the thick of things. I am having a hard time believing in them though, as evidenced by me picking them to lose at Seattle this weekend. I was wrong then and I may be wrong again this week but I am not ready to pick them on the road at Tennessee. It will be competitive but I still keep thinking at some point the Bengals will remember how young they are and that they're peaking ahead of schedule. I think the Titans will win, but trust me, I don't think that bum Chris Johnson will have anything to do with it.

Prediction: Tennessee 20, Cincinnati 16

Denver (2-5) at Oakland (4-3), Oakland favored by 8

This whole upheaval in Oakland has me feeling like things aren't going to end well for the Raiders. You can't just bring in guys like Carson Palmer and TJ Houshmandzadeh, who have been sitting on their couches all season, and then think that you're going to the playoffs with them. I expect Palmer to look much sharper this game than he did two weeks ago, but people are fooling themselves if they think TJ is going to add much of anything. This might be Tim Tebow's last chance this season to hold onto his starting job. I want to see him do well but it can't be denied how atrocious he has played through two games this season. Usually I would advocate patience, but you can't keep starting a guy that isn't even completing 50 percent of his passes and is taking way too many sacks. The Raiders will escape with a win this week but their long term prospects aren't good in my opinion.

Prediction: Oakland 26, Denver 21

New York Giants (5-2) at New England (5-2), New England favored by 8 1/2

The Patriots offense has sputtered now for two straight weeks. People tend to forget because they won and it was followed up with a bye week, but the offense did very little against the Cowboys, much like they did very little against the Steelers. Of course, they had set the bar high by scoring 30 points a week before that. I'm betting on a return to form this weekend against a Giants team that despite its 5-2 record, is completely underwhelming. They love to play down to their competition, but they also seem to play up when competition is good. They're going to have to as starting with this week the schedule gets very tough. They feel good now with a 2 game lead in the division but things could go south quickly. I think Brady will pick apart their weak secondary and the Patriots defense will do just enough to get the win.

Prediction: New England 30, New York Giants 24

St. Louis (1-6) at Arizona (1-6), No Line

Who cares?

Prediction: Arizona 9, St. Louis 6

Green Bay (7-0) at San Diego (4-3), Green Bay favored by 6

People are foolish. They keep riding the Chargers despite the Chargers giving people no reason to believe in them. They have Norv Turner who has never gotten this team to play to its talent level, they have injuries at the running back position, and they have Philip Rivers who has looked about as good as Rex Grossman and John Beck this season. They are a flawed team without the necessary leadership to be anything more than a fringe contender. The Chargers would love to be the Packers, a team that can still play well despite injuries, has a competent head coach, and a world class quarterback. Now excuse me while I puke for having to pay the Packers all those compliments. I blame the Chargers, screw you San Diego!

Prediction: Green Bay 24, San Diego 19

Baltimore (5-2) at Pittsburgh (6-2), Pittsburgh favored by 3

One of the best rivalries in football takes the spotlight on Sunday night. Week 1 was a strange game for these teams, it wasn't competitive and Joe Flacco actually beat the Steelers. I think we are going to return to the norm in this game. Flacco and the Ravens were lucky that they played such an inept team in the Cardinals and were able to escape with a win. Its obvious that Flacco is another overrated quarterback, and is pretty much a glorified Trent Dilfer. The Ravens only hope of winning this game is Ray Rice. The Steelers defense has played much better in recent weeks, and the offense is really clicking. The Ravens benefited in the first game from all the turnovers Ben Roethlisberger committed but he and the passing game have been on fire the last few weeks. I love the Steelers in this one.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Baltimore 17

Monday, November 7

Chicago (4-3) at Philadelphia (3-4), Philadelphia favored by 8

The way the Eagles played last Sunday was the team I envisioned when I picked them to win the Super Bowl. Their offense was a juggernaut, the corners weren't allowing any separation, and the defensive front continued their stellar play. The word on the Eagles has completely flipped from the media and now they are declaring the Eagles Super Bowl contenders again. The Eagles have to keep playing with the urgency they have shown the last two weeks because if they don't the Bears can beat them. Jay Cutler figures to be running for his life as Trent Cole and Jason Babin could have huge games going up against a suspect Bears offensive line. I think the Bears defense can keep them in this game and will frustrate Vick and not allow LeSean McCoy to completely run over them. The Eagles rush defense has been much improved the last few weeks but will have their work cut out for them facing Matt Forte. I know it's a risk signing running backs to long term deals (see Chris Johnson) but Forte is also a great pass catcher. The Bears offense will be nothing if they let him walk. I expect a tense, low scoring game, with the Eagles escaping with their third straight victory.

Prediction: Philadelphia 21, Chicago 15

Last Week Straight Up: 8-5
Overall Straight Up: 76-40

Last Week Against the Spread: 3-10, ouch :(
Overall Against the Spread: 56-57-3

Cram Session - Week 10

2011-11-02T09:50:00.021-04:00

We should all consider ourselves lucky. The Game of the Century has come with 89 years remaining in the century. In case you are too cool to have television or Internet, I am referring to this Saturday's game between #1 LSU and #2 Alabama. Both teams are undefeated and this game has been circled on the calendar of college football fans for months. I will go on record as saying the winner will end up being the national champion in January, while the loser will have to settle for another BCS Bowl. The hype has been unrivaled, now we just have to hope the game lives up to it.

Games That Matter to Me

Notre Dame (5-3) at Wake Forest (5-3)

There was talk of friction in the locker room after Brian Kelly threw his upperclassmen under the bus with some comments he made last week. That friction was taken out by the players on Navy last weekend, as the Irish got back to the roots of the rivalry, which was them always beating the crap out of the Midshipmen. Notre Dame now begins a three game ACC stretch where they will be favored in each game. This weekend's game against Wake Forest likely presents the biggest challenge of the three. The Demon Deacons can be a dangerous team at home, already knocking off Florida State earlier this season. However, since that win they have been less than impressive, getting blown out by Virginia Tech and North Carolina and barely defeating Duke. Wake Forest's biggest strength is their passing game led by QB Tanner Price. Price has 14 TDs and 6 INTs but is coming off a miserable game against the Tar Heels where he had three interceptions and zero touchdowns. His favorite target is WR Chris Givens who has had no less than six catches in every game this season. However, he is also coming off his worst game of the season, where his six catches earned him just 42 yards receiving. Wake Forest is 104th in the country in rushing yards so Notre Dame shouldn't have to worry about the ground attack too much. The Notre Dame pass defense has been weak at times so they will have to be on their game against Wake. The Demon Deacons defense is pretty atrocious, allowing 28 points per game. The Irish offense, led by Tommy Rees and Michael Floyd should be able to move the ball pretty handily. The Irish have been at their best when they are balanced so it is important that Cierre Wood gets going. I think Wake will hang around for a bit but the Irish are far more talented and will earn the win.

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Wake Forest 24

Northwestern (3-5, 1-4) at #10 Nebraska (7-1, 3-1)

It took 8 weeks but the Blackshirts defense finally showed themselves last weekend against Michigan State. The Spartans could get nothing going and the Huskers played their most complete defensive game of the season, despite being without their best player Jared Crick. The win vaulted the Huskers back into the Top 10 and right in the thick of things for earning a shot at the Big 10 championship game. The season will be defined by back to back road trips to Penn State and Michigan but before that the Huskers have to handle their business at home against Northwestern. Northwestern has a prolific, balanced offense, but plays little to no defense. QB Dan Persa was getting some Heisman hype before the season but then missed the first three games of the season due to injury. He finally got his first win as a starter last weekend against Indiana. Persa is very accurate and has great rapport with WRs Jeremy Ebert and Drake Dunsmore. The rushing attack of the Wildcats is led by Kain Colter who is also the backup quarterback. The Huskers rushing attack figures to dominate in this game, as Rex Burkhead has been on a tear. Burkhead had 35 carries against Michigan State and if that game plan is what works for Nebraska than so be it. Taylor Martinez is obviously somewhat of a liability throwing the ball and defenses know this. It shows the power of the Huskers running game that they still find success despite teams knowing what is coming. My only fear for this game is Nebraska looking ahead to their next two games or feeling too good about themselves after last weekend. I think Bo Pelini will have them ready though and they should romp.

Prediction: Nebraska 40, Northwestern 21

Top 10 - Saturday, November 5

#1 LSU (8-0, 5-0) at #2 Alabama (8-0, 5-0)

Usually it is the offenses that get all the publicity but with LSU and Alabama it really is all about the defenses. Alabama has allowed just 6.9 points per game this season, while LSU is second in the country giving up just 11.5 points per game. Those are truly incredible numbers. The Crimson Tide's best defensive players are LB Dont'a Hightower, FS Mark Barron, and CB Dre Kirkpatrick. While the Tigers boast studs such as Tyrann Mathieu, LB Ryan Baker, Morris Claiborne, Brandon Taylor, and Eric Reid. The most fascinating matchup to watch will be Alabama's stud running backs Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy against the Tigers defense which hasn't allowed anyone to run the ball all season. Alabama's biggest liability in this game is QB AJ McCarron who will be playing in the biggest game of his life. His presence doesn't really matter though if Richardson and Lacy are able to have success running. Much like the Tide, LSU finds most of its offensive success through running the ball. They go with a dual system between Spencer Ware and Michael Ford. They also go with the unconventional dual quarterback system. Jarrett Lee started the season alone with Jordan Jefferson suspended, but since Jefferson has returned he has been getting snaps behind center as well. Neither player is all that impressive and much like the Tide, any success the Tigers have on offense will come from running the ball.

There seems to be a lot of people on LSU to win and I don't really understand why. To me Alabama is better offensively and defensively, and the game will be in their backyard. I think the offenses will be able to find the end zone a few times but I will always take the better team, playing at home. LSU's best chance to win is if they can force McCarron into mistakes, but I think Richardson and Lacy will have enough success running that McCarron will only have to make throws to keep the Tigers defense honest. I like the Tide to win and cover the spread.

Prediction: Alabama 24, LSU 17

#14 Kansas State (7-1, 4-1) at #3 Oklahoma State (8-0, 5-0)

The feel good story of Kansas State took a nasty turn last weekend in second half against Oklahoma. The Sooners blitzed them for 35 unanswered points and ran away with a 58-17 victory. Things may get even worse in Stillwater this weekend as they now have to face the best quarterback and wide receiver combo in the game, Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon. This is the Cowboys last home game before the huge showdown with the Sooners on December 3rd.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 45, Kansas State 20

#4 Stanford (8-0, 6-0) at Oregon State (2-6, 2-3)

Unfortunately I was too busy being dressed as a one night stand to watch what sounded like a thrilling game between Stanford and USC. Andrew Luck only increased his God like status among quarterbacks, and I am waiting for the inevitable backlash to hit him like it did Tim Tebow. Stanford's game of the season comes next week when they host Oregon, but this week they get to beat up on the state school.

Prediction: Stanford 43, Oregon State 17

#5 Boise State (7-0, 2-0) at UNLV (2-5, 1-1)

The Broncos are lurking the background, waiting for teams to fall so they can possibly slip into the national championship game, or at worst a BCS bowl. This weekend will be a cake walk, it's next week where they face their only possible hurdle when they host TCU.

Prediction: Boise State 58, UNLV 14

Texas A&M (5-3, 3-2) at #6 Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1)

I wasn't buying the Aggies as a Top 10 team prior to the season and that belief has been proven true. However, if games were only a half the Aggies might be the number one team in the country. They suffered their third loss of the season last week against Missouri and in each of those losses they had leads at the half. The Sooners bounced back nicely from their loss against Texas Tech by wiping the floor with Kansas State. This should be a fun, back and forth game. The Aggies are good enough to keep it competitive but the Sooners will pull out the win.

Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Texas A&M 31

#9 South Carolina (7-1, 5-1) at #7 Arkansas (7-1, 3-1)

The other big game in the SEC this weekend, although no one outside of South Carolina or Arkansas will be watching as it goes up against LSU/Bama. The Gamecocks are winning with defense which is a must now that they are without Marcus Lattimore. The Razorbacks had their second straight road scare but once again were able to pull out the victory late. It will feel good for the Razorbacks to be back at home, and I expect more of a performance like we saw against Auburn than what we have seen the last two weeks. Without Lattimore, the Gamecocks don't have the horses to win in Fayetville.

Prediction: Arkansas 27, South Carolina 13

#8 Oregon (7-1, 5-0) at Washington (6-2, 4-1)

Oregon might be in the midst of a quarterback change. Darron Thomas has been battling injuries and when he was ineffective against Washington State last weekend he was pulled in favor of Bryan Bennett who played well down the stretch against the Cougars. LaMichael James also returned last weekend but struggled and it was Kenjon Barner that had the big day. James and Thomas have to get back to full health for the Ducks to have a chance to upset Stanford. The Huskies will present a challenge and if the Ducks don't have their full attention on them, they could be susceptible to an upset in Seattle. If the Huskies had any semblance of a defense I would pick them to pull the upset, but I can't envision them slowing down the Ducks offensive assault.

Prediction: Oregon 47, Washington 33

Last Week: 8-0
Overall: 79-7

The Hail Mary - Week 8

2011-10-27T17:59:00.024-04:00

Last weekend featured a pretty uninspiring slate of games, but fortunately things improve a bit this weekend. The Steelers and Patriots renew their rivalry, although with how New England has dominated in recent years its not really much of a rivalry. Also, both prime time games are good. Dallas travels to Philadelphia in a crucial NFC East battle, and the Chiefs look to continue their resurrection at home against the Chargers. Oh yeah, it also is Halloween weekend so expect lots of crowd shots of people dressed up in random costumes. Yippie!

Week 8 - Sunday, October 30

Indianapolis (0-7) at Tennessee (3-3), Tennessee favored by 8 1/2

The Colts already dreadful season reached epically embarrassing depths last Sunday when they were blown out on national television by the Saints, 62-7. Fortunately, the Colts can only ruin two more prime time games, and one of those games, against the Patriots will likely be flexed out. The Titans were an early season surprise at 3-1 but have been blown out their last two games and the shine is officially off. Chris Johnson can't run the ball to save his life, and Matt Hasselbeck has reverted back to the quarterback the Seahawks were eager to part ways with. The Colts should be the perfect elixir for the Titans to get back to winning.

Prediction: Tennessee 28, Indianapolis 20

New Orleans (5-2) at St. Louis (0-6), New Orleans favored by 13

The Saints offense was on fire last Sunday night and the Saints get another chance to put up huge points when they face a winless team for the second week in a row. The Rams may be without QB Sam Bradford for a second straight game, not that him playing would help much. The only way this doesn't get ugly is if the Saints go into cruise control early.

Prediction: New Orleans 31, St. Louis 10

Miami (0-6) at New York Giants (4-2), New York Giants favored by 10

I have picked the Dolphins to cover the spread the last two weeks and was burned each time. Last weekend, they did it in spectacularly awful fashion, blowing a 15-0 lead in the final two minutes of the game, and adding to the legend of Tim Tebow. I don't have a ton of faith in the Giants, I mean they lost to the crappy Seahawks at home, but I can't pick Miami a third straight week.

Prediction: New York Giants 27, Miami 14

Minnesota (1-6) at Carolina (2-5), Carolina favored by 3 1/2

A rookie quarterback battle is the main attraction in this game. Vikings QB Christian Ponder showed flashes in his debut against Green Bay but also made mistakes you would expect from a rookie. He has to improve his accuracy, but I did like his ability to scramble and make plays. The Vikings have nothing but pride to play for the rest of the season, so ride it out with Ponder the last nine games and get an idea of what you have. The Panthers were smarter than everyone else when they held strong and picked Cam Newton. I had my doubts about Newton and his ability to throw the ball but he is light years ahead of someone like Tim Tebow, who many wanted to compare him to. The Panthers are definitely in that middle tier right now. They can compete with the best but aren't good enough yet to win. However, like they showed against the Redskins last weekend, they can beat mediocre to bad teams.

Prediction: Carolina 26, Minnesota 19

Arizona (1-5) at Baltimore (4-2), Baltimore favored by 13 1/2

I don't know what that was that the Ravens were trying to pass off as offense on Monday night but it was offensive. I hope John Clayton was watching so he can finally stop telling everyone that Joe Flacco is a good quarterback. Flacco is mediocre at best and always has been. The Ravens defense remains legit and to me is a huge surprise. I thought it was finally time to move on from the Ravens defense is great narrative but they have proven me wrong. The Ravens are the same as they ever were, awful on offense and carried by their defense. The Arizona Cardinals are in the midst of a tailspin and traveling across the country to Baltimore is not the recipe to get them back on track. Kevin Kolb is going to have a rough day.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Arizona 7

Jacksonville (2-5) at Houston (4-3), Houston favored by 9 1/2

The Jaguars are an awful offensive team but their defense has been showing up week after week. They may have to deal with the return of Andre Johnson this weekend. The Texans seemed left for dead with Johnson and Mario Williams out with injuries, but then crushed the Titans on the road and re-assumed control of the division. Blaine Gabbert has been completely underwhelming thus far but its hard to tell if that's more because his #1 receiver is some guy named Mike Thomas or if Gabbert just isn't very good. I was never that impressed with Gabbert in college, especially when he played Nebraska. The Jags defense will keep this close but the Texans will enter the halfway mark an encouraging 5-3.

Prediction: Houston 21, Jacksonville 13

Washington (3-3) "at" Buffalo (4-2) in Toronto, Canada, Buffalo favored by 6

If this game were in Buffalo I would pick the Bills to cover the six point line no question. Buffalo is a very tough place to win no matter what, and even harder when the Bills have a pretty good team like this season. After not feeling much of an injury bug for the first four games, players are dropping like flies now for the Redskins. The defense has been mostly unaffected but there is the possibility that LB London Fletcher could miss this game. The atmosphere in Toronto is less than intimidating and that is why I think the Skins can keep this close. However, I don't think they will be able to slow down Bills RB Fred Jackson, and I also expect WR Stevie Johnson to make some plays. John Beck will have some success but the Bills defense has been opportunistic and will likely force Beck into some interceptions. Beck looked awful to start the game against Carolina but seemed to find his comfort zone as the game went on. If the Redskins were healthier I might have picked them to pull off the upset, but they are too banged up on the offensive line and too inexperienced at quarterback to pull off the win.

Prediction: Buffalo 29, Washington 24

Detroit (5-2) at Denver (2-4), No Line

Matthew Stafford is questionable for the Lions, hence the reason this game is without a line. Tim Tebow makes his first home start of the season and will hope to avoid the clutches of Ndamukong Suh in this game. Suh continues to be called dirty and it is starting to get a little ridiculous to me. When did players in the NFL become such babies? Suh seems like he might have fit in better in the 70's when the Steelers were on steroids and the players were tougher. Even if the Lions have to go with Shaun Hill I like them to end their two game winning streak. Lions fans should be cautious though, the second half schedule is pretty daunting and I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions feel good story ends up being another non-playoff season.

Prediction: Detroit 23, Denver 16

New England (5-1) at Pittsburgh (5-2), New England favored by 3

I love this line and love the Patriots to cover it. The Steelers have never proven they can stop the Patriots when playing Tom Brady. He slices and dices their defense and dictates the course of the game with ease. I expect to see plenty of Brady to Wes Welker and Brady to Aaron Hernandez and budding porn star Rob Gronkowski. The Steelers offense will find success too but until the Steelers prove they can hang against the Patriots, it doesn't make sense to pick them to win, no matter where the game is played. Plus, the Steelers have beaten no one of note this season so while their 5-2 looks nice, it's not really legitimate.

Prediction: New England 35, Pittsburgh 24

Cleveland (3-3) at San Francisco (5-1), San Francisco favored by 8 1/2

It's weird to the 49ers favored by 8 1/2 in a game. I was pretty hesitant to take them to cover this line but then remembered that the Browns only scored 6 points at home last weekend against Seattle. I am a little worried about the Niners being rusty off the bye and also a little full of themselves after the hype they have been receiving. Hopefully, Harbaugh has kept that in check and keeps the Niners eyes on the prize. By time Sunday ends, they could be four games up in the division.

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Cleveland 17

Cincinnati (4-2) at Seattle (2-4), Cincinnati favored by 3

Seattle is a different team at home and Tarvaris Jackson may return and believe it or not has proven himself to be a considerable upgrade over Charlie Whitehurst. The Bengals are too young I think to go into Seattle and pull off the win. In fact the next two weeks will really tell us something about Cincinnati as they go to Tennessee next weekend. If they are as good as their record shows, those are games they should win, but I don't think the record tells the whole story with these Bengals.

Prediction: Seattle 20, Cincinnati 17

Dallas (3-3) at Philadelphia (2-4), Philadelphia favored by 3 1/2

The Eagles kept their season alive with a win against Washington two weeks ago and can really get themselves back into the NFC East race if they can knock off the Cowboys at home. Philly has yet to win a home game this year and dating back to last season has lost five games in a row at home. A statistic that works in their favor is that Andy Reid is 12-0 in the first game following a bye week in his career. These teams are very evenly matched and this game could really go either way. I think Michael Vick will make some plays like he always does and LeSean McCoy will find success running the ball. DeSean Jackson has always had the Cowboys number and I think he will find some success as well. The Eagles run defense will have to contain rookie sensation DeMarco Murray, and CB Asante Samuel needs to stop running his mouth and focus on coverage and picking off Tony Romo. I like the Eagles because of their success coming off a bye with Reid, as well as the fact that they have to win a home game eventually.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Dallas 21

Monday, October 31

San Diego (4-2) at Kansas City (3-3), San Diego favored by 3 1/2

A few weeks ago this looked like another Monday night snoozer, but the Chiefs have won three in a row and can be in a tie for first place with a victory Monday night. The Chiefs first showed signs of life when they gave the Chargers all they could handle in San Diego last month. They seemed to have found a running game with the emergence of Jackie Battle and that has taken some pressure off of Matt Cassel. As expected the Chargers blew a game against the Jets they should have won, which has been the story ever since Norv Turner has been the coach there. This game will be closer than it should, especially with how poorly Philip Rivers is playing right now, but the presence of Antonio Gates will be enough for the Chargers to get the victory.

Prediction: San Diego 23, Kansas City 21

Last Week Straight Up: 8-5
Overall Straight Up: 68-35

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-5-1
Overall Against the Spread: 53-47-3

Cram Session - Week 9

2011-10-26T14:54:00.013-04:00

It was bound to happen sometime. College football finally went away from its chalkiness and because of that, I suffered my first incorrect picks in a month. Not even Texas Tech fans would have picked the Red Raiders to go into Norman and beat Choklahoma. Michigan State was down big early and looked to be proving me right about their fraudness, but then showed a lot of heart in making a comeback. As for Notre Dame losing to USC, I should have known better than to expect the Irish to maintain success.

Games That Matter to Me

Saturday, October 29

Navy (2-5) at Notre Dame (4-3)

Just as I was starting to feel good about the Irish, they went out and laid an egg in prime time against USC. They got down big early, a running theme at home this season, then when making a comeback, fumbled at the goal line and saw the Trojans run it back for a score, another running theme of the season. This team cannot handle success at all. Another problem is coach Brian Kelly likes to get way too cute with his play calling. When trailing 17-10 and driving to tie, Kelly puts in the third string quarterback to run a stupid draw. I'm all for trick plays but not when you are driving comfortably and looking to tie the game! To me that ruined the flow of the offense, and contributed to the disaster that was the next play. BCS hopes are dashed, and with most of the defense gone next season, it will probably be another trying year in 2012. Although, with how the defense has played the last few weeks, maybe all of them leaving is a good thing. This week, the Irish host a team that has had their number in recent years, the Midshipmen. Last season, Navy embarrassed the Irish 35-17, a shocking result to all college football fans. The Irish were completely befuddled by Navy's option offense and could do nothing to stop them. That was a strong Navy team last year, this year's squad is reeling, having lost five in a row. Much like Air Force, who the Irish crushed a few weeks ago, Navy will only throw the ball when they have to. They rely on QB Kriss Proctor and RB Alexander Teich to do the bulk of the running. Notre Dame had trouble slowing the Air Force offense but did create some turnovers. Where Notre Dame should have no problem finding success is on offense. The Falcons couldn't slow them down and Navy's defense shouldn't be able to either. Navy gives up an average of 30 points per game, including giving up 63 points to Southern Mississippi earlier this season. There is not a single player on the Midshipmen that can cover Michael Floyd. Cierre Wood completely disappeared from the game plan last week as soon as the Irish got behind. I would expect him to have a bounce back game and be a heavy part of the offense this week. There is absolutely no reason Notre Dame should lose to Navy this year. Avoid the sloppy early play and for the love of God stop turning the ball over in the red zone. If they do lose, I might have to strongly reconsider if I still want to go to FedEx to watch the Irish play the Twerps in a few weeks.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Navy 27

#11 Michigan State (6-1, 3-0) at #14 Nebraska (6-1, 2-1)

If the Spartans win at Lincoln they will basically have wrapped up the Legends division and secured their spot in the Big Ten (really 12) Championship game. The biggest key to this game is can the Spartans avoid a letdown after a very emotional victory against Wisconsin last weekend? The other question is, can the Spartans win a tough game on the road? They did win in Columbus but the Buckeyes are down this year, and in their other road game they were trounced by an average Notre Dame team. For Nebraska, can their offense do anything against a very good Michigan State defense? The Huskers are a one dimensional rushing team, and against lesser competition that hasn't mattered, but the Spartans will be the toughest defense they have faced this season. The Huskers struggled for three quarters against a very good Buckeyes defense and then turned it on in the fourth quarter. They can't get behind big in this game and expect to follow the same script. Taylor Martinez will have to make some plays throwing the ball. Rex Burkhead has been on a tear recently and will have to find ways to penetrate the stout Spartans defense. Also, the maligned Huskers defense will have to come up with a huge performance. Spartans QB Kirk Cousins had his best game of the season last weekend, so his confidence will be high. His favorite target is B.J. Cunningham who leads the team with 48 receptions, and is tied for the team lead with 3 TDs. The Spartans employ a two-headed rushing attack with Edwin Baker and Le'Veon Bell and they certainly could find some holes against Nebraska. I have gone back and forth all week on this game, I believe these are two evenly matched teams. Should be an exciting game, but I have to go homer and pick the Huskers.

Prediction: Nebraska 23, Michigan State 20

Top 10 - Saturday, October 29

Baylor (4-2, 1-2) at #3 Oklahoma State (7-0, 4-0)

The Cowboys are in the driver's seat to play for a national championship after the Sooners choked away their chance. The road won't be easy for the Cowboys as they still have to play three ranked teams in their final five games. However, the only one of those on the road is at Texas Tech. The Cowboys were impressive in their three touchdown road win at Missouri last weekend, overcoming the loss of Justin Blackmon and getting a great performance out of their defense. The defense will have its hands full this week against Robert Griffin III. If Griffin could play both offense and defense maybe the Bears would be able to win games against tough teams. This game should be a track meet but the Bears defense is not anywhere near the level of the Cowboys defense.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 50, Baylor 27

#5 Clemson (8-0, 5-0) at Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2)

People keep waiting for Clemson to stumble and they just keep winning. However, if any time is set up for them to have their stumble it might be this game. The Yellow Jackets don't look like a team ready to spring an upset, suffering back to back embarrassing losses to Virginia and Miami. However, those losses both came on the road. The Yellow Jackets are unbeaten at home and it should be a rowdy atmosphere as they get this game in prime time. The Tech offense has been dormant the last two weeks but the Tigers defense hasn't been able to stop anybody this season. Clemson has an incredible amount of offensive weapons but I don't think they can keep outscoring people. Eventually the offense will make mistakes and turnovers will be the difference in a loss. That nearly happened at Maryland a couple weeks ago but the Terps are awful so Clemson was able to escape. The Yellow Jackets are better and I think they will spring the upset.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 34, Clemson 28

#6 Stanford (7-0, 5-0) at USC (6-1, 3-1)

The Cardinal are the other national championship contender that faces a road test in prime time. No one has come close to Stanford all season and they easily dispatched the Huskies who were their first ranked opponent of the season. However, that game was at home, and this will be their first road challenge of the season. USC has a legit quarterback in Matt Barkley and surprisingly found a running game against Notre Dame. The question is, can their defense do enough to stop Andrew Luck as well as the killer ground attack that Stanford has, led by Stepfan Taylor. If the Trojans had a stronger defense I would consider picking them to pull the upset, but I don't think they have the horses capable of slowing down the Cardinal attack. It is amazing to think that in four years Stanford has gone from 40 point underdogs to the Trojans, to overwhelming favorites. Gotta love Jim Harbaugh.

Prediction: Stanford 38, USC 24

Washington State (3-4, 1-3) at #7 Oregon (6-1, 4-0)

There are still question marks surrounding whether QB Darron Thomas or RB LaMichael James will play. Chip Kelly doesn't think it matters and he would be right, as the Ducks haven't missed a beat without either. Washington State was looking slightly revitalized but then got their doors blown by off at home by an awful Oregon State team last week.

Prediction: Oregon 53, Washington State 14

#9 Oklahoma (6-1, 3-1) at #8 Kansas State (7-0, 4-0)

I should have seen it coming. I stopped myself from calling them Choklahoma but they lived up to their nickname last weekend, losing at home to Texas Tech. Now it will take a miracle for them to play for the national championship. However, they can still win the Big 12, that is if they can end the undefeated season of Kansas State on Saturday. The Wildcats have come out of nowhere, mostly because Bill Snyder might be one of the best college football coaches in history. Yes, that is not a typo, the job he has done not once but twice resurrecting Kansas State is remarkable. However, I think reality will set in this weekend. Kansas State has won despite its struggles on offense. The Sooners defense has looked vulnerable at times this year but I think they can feast on a limited offensive team. Landry Jones and the offense will find success and the Sooners will get back on track.

Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Kansas State 16

#10 Arkansas (6-1, 2-1) at Vanderbilt (4-3, 1-3)

The Razorbacks had way too much trouble at Ole Miss last week, having to come from 17-0 down to pull out the victory. Most people probably don't know that the Commodores are now quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers little brother, Jordan. Jordan struggled with his accuracy in his first start against Army last weekend, but was a threat running the ball, rushing for 96 yards and a touchdown. Arkansas will have their hands full on the road but I expect them to not be caught blindsided like they were last weekend.

Prediction: Arkansas 37, Vanderbilt 24

Last Week: 9-3
Overall: 71-7

The Hail Mary - Week 7

2011-10-20T16:50:00.029-04:00

So I finally have a Sunday where nothing is planned. That means I can watch football uninterrupted, and not have to catch up on the DVR all day. That is all well and good until you look at this week's schedule. There are some decent 1:00 games but beyond that the slate is pretty awful. No really good 4/4:15 games, and the Sunday night and Monday night games are both atrocious. Oh well, I still will have a day of relaxation and football watching, only stopping for the occasional bite to eat, oh and laundry, probably some laundry going on.

Week 7 - Sunday, October 23

Seattle (2-3) at Cleveland (2-3), Cleveland favored by 3

The Madden Curse has once again proven itself to be an unstoppable force. Sure, Peyton Hillis was probably a one hit wonder anyways but he stood no chance against the cover of Madden. Browns QB Colt McCoy has a nice touchdown to interception ratio but he is completing just 55% of his passes. The Seahawks aren't sure which quarterback will be starting for them, Tavaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst. They almost make Rex Grossman and John Beck look like a murderer's row. If Jackson is too injured, Whitehurst will start. It's really of no consequence, the Seahawks aren't any better or worse off depending on the quarterback. They will grind out this win on the back of RB Marshawn Lynch.

Prediction: Seattle 22, Cleveland 19

Atlanta (3-3) at Detroit (5-1), Detroit favored by 3 1/2

So I was feeling sorta happy for the Lions after their fast start. They have been a down and out franchise for basically forever so it was cool to see them doing well. I don't feel so happy for them now, after finding out what a whiny, a-hole Jim Schwartz is. He prefers a dead fish handshake as opposed to a manly handshake. Any manly handshake causes him to lose his mind. It was funny to me that he thought Jim Harbaugh was too exuberant when he acts like a jackass on the sidelines all of the time. Look in the mirror Jim, just look in the mirror. The Lions are a mess at running back right now, and as Frank Gore showed last week, their run defense can be penetrated. I'm not too high on the Falcons, but I think the Lions being one dimensional on offense will hurt them, and Michael Turner can have the type of game Gore did.

Prediction: Atlanta 27, Detroit 23

Houston (3-3) at Tennessee (3-2), Tennessee favored by 3

There is rumblings that Texans WR Andre Johnson might return for this game. I think it's just wishful thinking and more than likely he will return for the Texans next game. They could certainly use him, especially their fraudtastic QB Matt Schaub. The Titans are coming off their bye and can really take control of the AFC South with a victory. The Titans are hoping Matt Hasselebeck didn't lose the fountain of youth during the bye. Along those lines, they are hoping Chris Johnson rediscovered it.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Houston 17

Denver (1-4) at Miami (0-5), Miami favored by 2

That was a pitiful performance the Dolphins put out on Monday Night Football. Tony Sparano should be put out of his misery, as this team has quit on him. The intriguing subplot to this game is Tim Tebow making his first start of the season. John Elway and John Fox are so insistent that he not succeed they traded away his best receiver for a bag of poop. The Dolphins are a terrible home team, but I don't see them going 0-16. They have to find a win somewhere and this is as good a place as any. Who knows, motivated by playing his former team Brandon Marshall might decide to actually score a touchdown.

Prediction: Miami 14, Denver 13

San Diego (4-1) at New York Jets (3-3), San Diego favored by 2

In a weekend of underwhelming games, this is the best one. Their are some good storylines for this game. LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Cromartie face their former team, and Rex Ryan stated the obvious, that Norv Turner is a terrible head coach, and that didn't sit well with ole Norvell. The Chargers have done something different and won some early season games, but in doing so, they have looked like crap and are a very unconvincing 4-1. The Jets ended their three game losing streak against Miami, but looked pretty inept and Jets fans are all still panicking. Most people will go with the Chargers but I haven't liked what I have seen out of San Diego all season. The Jets are 3-0 at home this season and I think they will play their best game of the season on Sunday and pull off the mini-upset.

Prediction: New York Jets 21, San Diego 17

Chicago (3-3) "at" Tampa Bay (4-2) in London, Chicago favored by 1

The annual London game pits Chicago and Tampa Bay, former NFC Central rivals. Tampa recovered well from the beat down the 49ers gave them, and knocked off the Saints at home. The Bears got to feel good for a night by playing a team even more hapless than them, the Vikings. If Tampa really was the home team I would pick them but this being a neutral field, I think the Bears are actually the better team. The Bears struggles come when teams have capable pass rushers, and the Bucs aren't very good at getting to the quarterback. I think Jay Cutler has a good game and the Bears win.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Tampa Bay 20

Washington (3-2) at Carolina (1-5), Carlina favored by 2 1/2

The John Beck era begins for the Redskins. In last week's Hail Mary, I said this:

"Rex throwing mostly leads to bad things."

Damn, I'm smart. Grossman was terrible, and all season has lived up to his career reputation as a turnover machine, so Mike Shanahan had no choice but to make the quarterback change. The local media is apoplectic and saying if John Beck fails that maybe the Shanahan era should end. That point of view is so stupid and short sighted. Sure, Shanahan said he would stake his reputation on Grossman and Beck. Did he need to go that far? No, but what do you want him to say? He had to at least make the appearance that he thought he could win with them. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Shanahan knows that Beck and Grossman are nothing but journeyman. He has improved the talent of the Skins in many positions, but this year his hands were tied. Their wasn't a quarterback they could get in the draft that was a franchise type guy so rather than reach for one, he chose to bide his time this year. It is my belief that next year, be it in the draft or trade Shanahan will get a quality quarterback. The Skins have a great chance of winning 8 games, which would be an improvement over last year. Skins fans and the media blast Dan Snyder for never being patient, but then if Shanahan wins 8 games this year, they will talk about how he is failing. They need to look at the big picture, Shanahan is starting from scratch and it takes time to build a consistent winner. If by next season the Skins are missing the playoffs for a third straight year, then the fans would be right to question what is going on. However, I believe the team is showing improvement and things are going in the right direction.

Now as far as the game this weekend, I don't like the Skins chances. The Panthers have been competitive all season and seem due for a victory. If the Redskins were relatively healthy on the offensive line I would pick them, even with Beck making his first start. But with the line being a mess, and trying to get a new quarterback in their, it is too much upheaval. While I think the Skins defense can force Newton into some mistakes, I think he will make enough big plays to counteract those mistakes, and the Panthers finally break through with a win.

Prediction: Carolina 23, Washington 17

Kansas City (2-3) at Oakland (4-2), Oakland favored by 3 1/2

The Raiders made big news this week by essentially ending Jason Campbell's career as an NFL starter. Campebell went down last weekend with a broken collarbone and rather than rely on Kyle Boller to get them to the playoffs, the Raiders overspent to trade for Carson Palmer. If they were getting the Carson Palmer from 2006 I would have understood the trade but Palmer has been mediocre ever since that season. He did have 26 TDs last season but he also had 20 INTs and makes some truly awful throws, which leads to him throwing a lot of pick sixes to the defense. Despite having sat on his couch all season, it is likely that Palmer will get the start. I don't expect Palmer to do much but I think the Raiders will still win because of Darren McFadden. He has had success against the Chiefs before, and after having been quiet for the past two weeks, I think he is due for a breakout game.

Prediction: Oakland 18, Kansas City 15

Pittsburgh (4-2) at Arizona (1-4), Pittsburgh favored by 3 1/2

It is a rematch of Super Bowl XLIII although the Cardinals are far removed from the team that played in that game. Kevin Kolb has struggled and the locals are already turning on him. The Steelers are 4-2 but remain underwhelming. They may make the playoffs merely because they are facing a weak schedule. One good sign for Pittsburgh was Rashard Mendenhall breaking out with a big game last weekend. He had been quiet all season, and with Ben Roethlisberger struggling somewhat, they needed the running game to get going to take some pressure off of him.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 17

St. Louis (0-5) at Dallas (2-3), Dallas favored by 13

The Cowboys got a great defensive effort but the offense couldn't convert their red zone opportunities into touchdowns against the Patriots and it ended up costing them. Now they get to host the NFL whipping boy, the Rams. The line is a little too steep for me to expect an average team like the Cowboys to cover, but the result will never seriously be in doubt.

Prediction: Dallas 24, St. Louis 13

Green Bay (6-0) at Minnesota (1-5), Green Bay favored by 8

Christian Ponder makes his first career start for the Vikings. The Vikings looked completely listless against the Bears and I think Donovan McNabb stopped caring about winning two years ago. He keeps saying he has football left in him, which may be true but its beyond obvious that he has no good football left in him. The Metrodome used to be a house of horror for the Packers but I don't expect it to present much of a challenge for them this season. QB Aaron Rodgers will be as precise as always and the Packers defense will harrass Ponder into a rough game.

Prediction: Green Bay 28, Minnesota 13

Indianapolis (0-6) at New Orleans (4-2), New Orleans favored by 14

Before the season and before it was known Peyton Manning wouldn't be playing this looked like a great game. Now, it features a winless Colts team that will be hoping to not be embarrassed in the Superdome. The Saints suffered a surprising loss last weekend and saw their coach get injured and have to undergo surgery last week. If the Saints don't blow out the Colts at home, some questions may have to start being asked about how legit New Orleans is. I think Drew Brees is going to have a field day picking apart the Colts defense and they will roll to a win, while the Colts continue their march to drafting Manning's successor, Andrew Luck.

Prediction: New Orleans 38, Indianapolis 17

Monday, October 24

Baltimore (4-1) at Jacksonville (1-5), Baltimore favored by 7 1/2

Booooooooooooooooooooring! Ravens games are already boring, put them against an awful team and you have found yourself the cure for insomnia. Why exactly did the Jags get two home, Monday night games? Everyone knew they would be terrible. Jacksonville doesn't even care about the Jags, why the hell would the rest of the country.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Jacksonville 9

Last Week Straight Up: 12-1 (Stupid New Orleans kept me from being perfect) Overall Straight Up: 60-30

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-7
Overall Against the Spread: 46-42-2

Cram Session - Week 8

2011-10-19T17:55:00.017-04:00

A boring college football season trudges along. How people can argue that college football is anywhere near as exciting as the NFL is beyond me. However, one good thing about all the chalkiness we have seen this year, my picks have been on point! I have correctly predicted every Top 10, Notre Dame, and Nebraska game for the past month. Now that I bring it up here, this is probably the weekend the streak dies. There are some candidates for upsets. Michigan State hosts Wisconsin under the lights, Oklahoma State has another tough road test at Missouri, and Stanford finally faces a competent football team. Everyone is counting down to November 5th when LSU/Alabama meet, but hopefully the season can start to get exciting before then.

Games That Matter to Me

Saturday, October 22

USC (5-1) at Notre Dame (4-2)

Notre Dame plays under the lights at South Bend for the first time in 21 years. Pat Haden may think that the Notre Dame/USC rivalry means nothing to the players, but he needs to understand that it still means a ton to the fans. Whether USC was down or not last year, the Irish finally beating the Trojans was a great thing for Notre Dame fans to see. The icing on the cake would be to finally beat the Trojans in South Bend, something Notre Dame hasn't done since 2000. The Irish are favored but can't take the Trojans lightly. The Irish's most recent opponents have been strong rushing teams but weak to awful passing teams. This has played into the strength of the Notre Dame defense. However, the Trojans don't really care to run the ball and love to air it out. They are led by QB Matt Barkley, who has been fantastic this season. Barkley has 16 TDs, 4 INTs, and is completing 68% of his passes. He will look early and often for his favorite target, sophomore WR Robert Woods. Woods has 60 catches this season and 6 TDs, which are numbers that almost match his totals from last season. Against Minnesota he had an astounding 17 receptions, and then 14 receptions against Arizona a few weeks ago. The Irish need to double team him and do whatever it takes to keep Woods out of the game. The Irish have shown they can be susceptible to teams just throwing the ball up so you know that will be in the Trojans game plan. When the Trojans do run the ball they rely on Marc Tyler. Tyler has only had more than 20 carries once this year and surprisingly that came in a game the Trojans were routed in against Arizona State. He is coming off suffering a shoulder dislocation but is intent on playing. As for the Irish, the offense hopefully remains as precise as it has been the last few weeks. Tommy Rees has cut down on the turnovers, Michael Floyd continues to dominate, and RB Cierre Wood has given the Irish a viable rushing game. This game will come down to the Irish limiting their mistakes, and not letting Barkley go crazy. Barkley didn't play in last year's game so you know he will be itching to take his shots at Notre Dame. I expect a close, tight game, but the Irish to escape with a victory.

Prediction: Notre Dame 30, USC 26

#13 Nebraska (5-1, 1-1) at Minnesota (1-5, 0-2)

Last we saw of Nebraska they were completing the biggest comeback in school history, defeating Ohio State. The Huskers played the first half like they were still licking their wounds from the beat down Wisconsin gave them. Then the defense made a play and the offense woke up. During their bye they got the bad news that Jared Crick will be out for the season. He hadn't been playing very well this season but it is still a huge loss for an already struggling defense. Hopefully, LB Lavonte David can continue his fantastic play. Taylor Martinez still can make Huskers fans cringe when he throws but he showed great perseverance in leading them back against the Buckeyes. They go to Minnesota this week and I am not even going to bother doing a run down of the Golden Gophers. All that needs to be said is they are awful and earlier this year they lost at home to North Dakota State and New Mexico State. Nebraska should roll.

Prediction: Nebraska 42, Minnesota 14

Top 10 - Saturday, October 22

#20 Auburn (5-2, 3-1) at #1 LSU (7-0, 4-0)

This game got a little more intriguing with the announcement yesterday that CB Tyrann Mathieu, DB Therold Simon, and RB Spencer Ware failed drug tests and will be suspended for this game. Must have been a crucial puff, puff, pass session they had going on. Auburn is giving QB Clint Moseley his first start of the season, hoping to ignite an offense that has struggled recently under Barrett Trotter. While the Tigers will miss their suspended players, they have been dealing with suspensions all season and it hasn't slowed them down. Tigers fans are pissy because they won't host any night games this season, but rather than care about that, they should focus on the fact that their team is the second best in the country.

Prediction: LSU 27, Auburn 10

Tennessee (3-3, 0-3) at #2 Alabama (7-0, 4-0)

I feel bad for teams like Florida and Tennessee that get to play LSU and Alabama back to back. Getting your brains beat in two weeks in a row can't be good for confidence. This is the Crimson Tide's last game before the Game of the Century at home against LSU in two weeks.

Prediction: Alabama 45, Tennessee 7

Texas Tech (4-2, 1-2) at #3 Oklahoma (6-0, 3-0)

The Sooners started slow against Kansas before remembering how much better they are than the Jayhawks. Oklahoma heads to Manhattan, Kansas next weekend where they will play a likely unbeaten Kansas State team. However, they can't look past the Red Raiders. Texas Tech has two losses but was competitive in both games against Texas A&M and Kansas State. They have their usual high powered offense but unfortunately also have their usual sieve like defense.

Prediction: Oklahoma 41, Texas Tech 21

#4 Oklahoma State (6-0, 3-0) at Missouri (3-3, 1-2)

On paper, looking at the records this would seem like an easy game for the Cowboys. But look deeper and you see that Missouri has won 10 games in a row at home, and their 3 losses this season have all been close losses on the road. The Cowboys have shown they can win in tough places, earning victories at Texas A&M and Texas. Things are being set up for defacto national semi-finals with #1 LSU set to meet #2 Alabama, and then possibly #3 Oklahoma taking on #4 Oklahoma State. This could be a trap game though and if the Cowboys want to continue to quiet the doubters a win here would continue their impressive season. If the Tigers pull the upset it will be because of sensational RB Henry Josey.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34, Missouri 31

Air Force (3-3, 0-2) at #5 Boise State (6-0, 1-0)

Boise State welcomed themselves to the Mountain West by obliterating Colorado State. They seem destined to finish undefeated but on the outside of the national championship picture. Going to the Big East doesn't make any geographical sense, but if the Broncos want the opportunity to ever play for the national championship, it would be much more realistic in the Big East.

Prediction: Boise State 53, Air Force 17

#6 Wisconsin (6-0, 2-0) at #16 Michigan State (5-1, 2-0)

The Spartans are feeling good about themselves after beating Michigan for the fourth straight season. They feel like they have a pretty legitimate defense and can slow down Wisconsin's offensive assault, that is averaging 50 points in 6 games. QB Russell Wilson will have the spotlight on him in prime time, and a strong game on the road would likely vault him to the top of the Heisman race. The only chance the Spartans have is for their defense to feed off the home crowd and play amazing. Their offense is uninspiring and won't outscore the Badgers. I don't expect the Badgers to put up 50 like they have every week but they will end a three game losing streak at Spartan Stadium in convincing fashion.

Prediction: Wisconsin 30, Michigan State 17

North Carolina (5-2, 1-2) at #7 Clemson (7-0, 4-0)

The Tigers seemed destined to have their Clemson moment of underwhelming. They were getting routed on the road by Maryland but then the second half happened. The Tigers offensive playmakers, QB Tajh Boyd, RB Andre Ellington, and WR Sammy Watkins took over the game and brought the Tigers back. The rest of the Tigers schedule should see them favored in every game, so a 12-0 regular season is a real possibility. The Tar Heels looked like a pretty decent team but then were torched by an average Miami team at home. That doesn't speak well for their chances in a hostile environment this weekend.

Prediction: Clemson 40, North Carolina 24

#25 Washington (5-1, 3-0) at #8 Stanford (6-0, 4-0)

This game is all about the quarterbacks. Everyone knows Andrew Luck, and they will soon get to know Huskies quarterback Keith Price. Price has been almost as good as Luck and has made Huskie fans quickly forget about overrated Jake Locker. For Stanford, this is their first game against a ranked opponent and will be a good test as the schedule strengthens with a road trip against USC and a home date with Oregon coming up. The offenses are about equal but the Cardinal defense is much better than the Huskies, and will prove to be the difference.

Prediction: Stanford 42, Washington 24

#9 Arkansas (5-1, 2-1) at Mississippi (2-4, 0-3)

Houston Nutt takes on his former team. At the rate the Rebels season is going, they will be his former team by the end of the season.

Prediction: Arkansas 36, Mississippi 14

#10 Oregon (5-1, 3-0) at Colorado (1-6, 0-3)

Oregon is expecting QB Darron Thomas to play, despite him leaving the Arizona State game with an injury. They likely won't have RB LaMichael James back, but that won't be an issue with Kenjon Barner playing as well as he did last weekend. The Buffaloes are awful and even worse ravaged by injury, they don't stand a chance.

Prediction: Oregon 40, Colorado 14

Last Week: 9-0!!!!!!!!! (37-0 over the last month)
Overall: 62-4

The Hail Mary - Week 6

2011-10-13T16:27:00.028-04:00

People around DC are all wrapped up with the Philadelphia Eagles trying to save their season against the Washington Redskins. However, the rest of the country and myself knows that the true game of the weekend takes place in Detroit. The resurgent 4-1 49ers take on the resurgent 5-0 Lions. I can name exactly no one that would have picked this as the game of the week six weeks ago. Also, for those of you that read last week, I did end up going apple picking and it actually way more fun that I expected. No, I will not turn in my man card.

Week 6 - Sunday, October 16

Carolina (1-4) at Atlanta (2-3), Atlanta favored by 4 1/2

The Panthers continue to remain competitive, but also continue to find ways to not turn that competitiveness into wins. The Falcons came out on fire against the Packers then meekly did nothing after building a 14-0 lead at home, and were once against thrashed by Green Bay. The Falcons haven't looked right all season, with the offense struggling, mostly because the offensive line is struggling. The Panthers defense hasn't shown it can slow anyone down, unless its playing Jacksonville in a monsoon. Expect a familiar script for Carolina, Cam Newton will keep them in the game, until they lose late.

Prediction: Atlanta 27, Carolina 24

Indianapolis (0-5) at Cincinnati (3-2), Cincinnati favored by 7

Will the Colts ever win a game? Curtis Painter looks like a massive upgrade over Kerry Collins but the Colts still blew a 17 point lead at home to the Chiefs. The Bengals are actually pretty decent and nowhere near the awful team I expected them to be. Their draft class of AJ Green and Andy Dalton are both playing pretty well and is promising for their future. However, its the Bengals so I am sure things will fall apart at some point. Not this week though.

Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Indianapolis 14

San Francisco (4-1) at Detroit (5-0), Detroit favored by 5

Well I didn't see a 48-3 butt whooping of the Bucs happening last weekend, but sure enough it did. QB Alex Smith is avoiding mistakes and making plays, Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter are running the ball well, and the defense is forcing turnovers and making stops. Carlos Rogers, who couldn't catch anything in Washington, now has three interceptions this year and is looking like one of the better corners in the league. All these good vibes have a chance to be taken down a notch with the Niners having to travel to Detroit. The Lions sputtered out of the gates on Monday Night, but then in the second half, took control of the game to improve to 5-0. I admit to being biased but I think the Niners can pull the upset. Their offensive line is better than the Bears, so the Lions won't get the kind of pressure on Smith that they did on Jay Cutler. I don't think Jahvid Best will be breaking any really long runs, and if the Niners can hold Calvin Johnson to just one touchdown this game, that would be a victory. I also think the Lions could experience a bit of a let down after all the hype that went into last Monday's game. The Niners will have to play a great game but I think they are the team to end the Lions undefeated run.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, Detroit 23

St. Louis (0-4) at Green Bay (5-0), Green Bay favored by 15

The only reason this game won't be any uglier is because Green Bay will probably pull most of their starters early. The Packers are a machine right now and clearly the best team in football.

Prediction: Green Bay 30, St. Louis 14

Buffalo (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2), New York Giants favored by 3 1/2

The New York Giants have been averse to success the last 2 1/2 seasons. They were surprising everyone with their 3-1 start, look primed to go to 4-1 with the Seahawks coming to town, and then laid an egg. Eli Manning continued to show the inconsistency that has plagued him in his career. He can have a few good games but then he always reverts back to one of those 3 interception stinkers. The Bills had the good fortune of playing the mistake prone Eagles and improved to 4-1. The defense seems to be following a 2009 Saints model of bending, not breaking and also creating points through turnovers. All that being said I'm still not sold on them going on the road and winning a tough game.

Prediction: New York Giants 28, Buffalo 27

Jacksonville (1-4) at Pittsburgh (3-2), Pittsburgh favored by 12

So the Steelers aren't quite ready to have their obituary written. They played inspired football against the Titans, and Big Ben finally woke up, throwing 5 TDs. Jacksonville is just atrocious and Jack Del Rio is probably hoping he can be put out of his misery.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Jacksonville 12

Philadelphia (1-4) at Washington (3-1), Philadelphia favored by 1

Vegas obviously still believes in the Eagles and crazy as it may sound I do as well. The Eagles have some flaws that aren't correctable, namely their linebackers suck. However, the reason for their four losses has mostly been self inflicted wounds. They have made dumb plays, like Jaqua Parker being stupid enough to fall for Ryan Fitzpatrick's hard count at the end of last week's game. They also have been killing themselves with turnovers, especially in the Red Zone. This is still a very talented team, with one of the fastest, dangerous offenses there has been in a long time. They are too good not to come together and have a strong effort. The Skins are coming off their bye and sit alone in first place. They have a great chance this weekend to get a firm hold on the division with a win, and knock the Eagles out of contention in the process. This is the type of game though that Redskins fans have expected them to lose. If this truly is the start of a new era for the Redskins, a win in this game would go a long way in convincing the fans of that. Alas, I am a pessimist and I expect the Skins to revert to what they know, underachieving. Kyle Shanahan will likely get too cute and instead of exposing the Eagles weaknesses stopping the run, he will inexplicably have Rex Grossman throwing the ball too much. Rex throwing mostly leads to bad things.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Washington 20

Cleveland (2-2) at Oakland (3-2), Oakland favored by 6

I only mostly experienced kooky Al Davis, and didn't get to see much of the guy that was a visionary and successful in the NFL. But watching Hue Jackson get so emotional after the Raiders beat the Texans was pretty touching. The Raiders are looking more and more legit each week. If they can at least cut the penalties in half they would be on the upper echelon of the league. The Browns are going to be walking into an emotionally charged environment. Things could get ugly for young Colt McCoy. No word yet if Peyton Hillis' agent will advise him not to play with a headache this weekend.

Prediction: Oakland 26, Cleveland 16

Houston (3-2) at Baltimore (3-1), Baltimore favored by 7 1/2

The AFC South seemed right their for the taking for the Texans. The Colts are without Peyton Manning, the Jaguars are poop, and the Titans figured to be rebuilding. But now things are slowly falling apart for Houston. They are without WR Andre Johnson, which exposes Matt Schaub for the mediocre QB he is, and now they lost Mario Williams for the season on defense. Despite that, I think they can keep it close with the Ravens. Joe Flacco has been very shaky this season and the Ravens are looking like the old school Ravens that won simply because they were so outstanding defensively. To me that is one of the bigger surprises this year, as I thought the defense would finally start showing their age.

Prediction: Baltimore 21, Houston 14

Dallas (2-2) at New England (4-1), New England favored by 7

I am looking forward to watching this game, as it is filled with playmakers on both sides of the ball for each team. Tony Romo has to avoid the killer mistakes because he can definitely torch the Patriots awful passing defense, especially with the return of his favorite target WR Miles Austin. I expect the Patriots and Tom Brady to go out and do what they do every week, make it look easy. They have scored at least 30 points in 13 straight regular season games, after Sunday it will be 14.

Prediction: New England 31, Dallas 21

New Orleans (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)

The Buccaneers have to show whether them losing to the Niners that badly was a case of a short week and a cross country trip, or if they are simply just not ready for prime time. Josh Freeman has started slowly, while WR Mike Williams has been practically non-existent. The Saints are riding a four game winning streak and would take control of the NFC South with a victory. Drew Brees is playing very well this season, and looking more like the Brees from 2009, then the interception happy one from 2010.

Prediction: New Orleans 33, Tampa Bay 23

Minnesota (1-4) at Chicago (2-3), Chicago favored by 3

These two are lagging far behind in the NFC North and the loser of this game can pretty much throw in the towel for the season. The Vikings, and especially Jared Allen will have a great chance to wreak havoc against the Bears laughably bad offensive line. Problem is, even when the Vikings were good, they could never win in Chicago. Another problem is Donovan McNabb remains the quarterback and can't pass for shit. The Bears defense is better than the Cardinals so I don't expect Adrian Peterson to be able to rack up 3 TDs in one quarter. This will probably be a defensive struggle, with the Bears making one more play than the Vikings to get the win.

Prediction: Chicago 21, Minnesota 17

Monday, October 17

Miami (0-4) at New York Jets (2-2), New York Jets favored by 7

The Matt Moore era begins in Miami! Chad Henne has been lost for the season, so Moore, who failed in Carolina last season, gets a chance in Miami. For some reason, Dolphins WR Brandon Marshall says he wants to get ejected by the 2nd quarter with the reason being he is a complete lunatic. Or maybe he just doesn't want to be on the field when the Dolphins fall to 0-5. The Jets are in disarray, having lost three in a row and trading away WR Derrick Mason due to him causing problems in the locker room. It shouldn't be time to completely panic for the Jets as their three game losing streak came against good teams and on the road. They shouldn't assume this is a win though because the Dolphins have won at New York for three straight seasons. I expect Miami will keep it close but have no confidence in their ability to win a game.

Prediction: New York Jets 19, Miami 17

Last Week Straight Up: 8-5
Overall Straight Up: 48-29

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-6
Overall Against the Spread: 40-35-2

Cram Session - Week 7

2011-10-12T17:40:00.019-04:00

Pretty weak weekend for college football. Both Notre Dame and Nebraska are on bye weeks and their are no real stand out games that grab your attention. Sometimes those weekends end up being the best though, because the games end up being good and catch everyone by surprise. Most of the hyped games this season have been blowouts, so perhaps dialing down on the hype will lead to better games.

Top 10 - Saturday, October 15

#1 LSU (6-0, 3-0) at Tennessee (3-2, 0-2)

Last year's game is remembered for the whole too many players on the field debacle that kept the Volunteers from a huge upset win in Baton Rouge. The Volunteers will start backup Matt Simms, as starter Tyler Bray is out with a broken thumb on his throwing hand. The Tigers feasted on Florida's third string quarterback last weekend and will no doubt he licking their chops to face Simms. I expect the Vols to keep this game closer than the Gators were able to, mostly because they have a pretty good defense. The LSU offense remains pretty mediocre I think the Vols can force LSU into some mistakes that will allow them to hang around. It won't be enough though.

Prediction: LSU 24, Tennessee 13

#2 Alabama (6-0, 3-0) at Mississippi (2-3, 0-2)

The Alabama offensive attack is becoming more balanced with the emergence of QB AJ McCarron which would seem to give them an edge heading into their November 5th showdown with LSU. Houston Nutt is hanging on by a thread at Mississippi and the next three weeks figure to not be too kind to him and the Rebels. After they lose to Bama this weekend, they have to play at Arkansas and host Auburn in the next two weeks. Life in the SEC.

Prediction: Alabama 30, Mississippi 10

#3 Oklahoma (5-0, 2-0) at Kansas (2-3, 0-2)

Its sad to see former Husker legend Turner Gill failing so miserably in Lawrence. Jayhawks fans are probably missing morbidly obese Mark Mangino right about now. The Jayhawks had 70 laid on them last weekend by Oklahoma State, while the Sooners absolutely destroyed Texas in the Red River Rivalry. The only reason I am not expecting Oklahoma to hang 70 on the Jayhawks is because the game is in Lawrence and the defense has been a little less than awful at home.

Prediction: Oklahoma 48, Kansas 17

Indiana (1-5, 0-2) at #4 Wisconsin (5-0, 1-0)

This is another huge mismatch. Indiana's only win of the season came against South Carolina State. Non-sequitur but some Penn State fans don't understand why their team isn't ranked when they are 5-1. Well, beating a sorry team like Indiana by 6 points is probably a huge part of that. The only reason I don't expect Wisconsin to win by an even larger margin is I think they will call off the dogs rather early. They have a huge game at Michigan State next weekend to prepare for.

Prediction: Wisconsin 45, Indiana 13

#5 Boise State (5-0, 0-0) at Colorado State (3-2, 1-0)

The Broncos are making their Mountain West Conference debut. With all of the conference realignment that is happening it remains to be seen how long Boise remains in the Mountain West. The Broncos laid a butt whooping on Fresno State last week, winning by 50 points on the road. However, with no ranked teams left on their schedule, and with TCU being down this year, it will take a miracle for Boise State to play in the national championship game. Heck, even making a BCS bowl may be impossible, even if Boise finishes unbeaten.

Prediction: Boise State 38, Colorado State 20

#6 Oklahoma State (5-0, 2-0) at #22 Texas (4-1, 1-1)

The Longhorns have no time to lick their wounds after their embarrassing defeat against Oklahoma last weekend. Next up is the Cowboys, whose offense continues to put up insane amounts of points and yards. This is the start of a pretty tough four game stretch for the Cowboys, who are hoping to go into their rivalry game with Oklahoma unbeaten. I don't think the Longhorns are as bad as they showed last weekend, and it also helps that the Cowboys defense is nowhere near the level of the Sooners defense. I think Case McCoy and David Ash will bounce back and make some plays to keep it interesting. However, the Horn defense is too young to stop Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 35, Texas 27

#7 Stanford (5-0, 3-0) at Washington State (3-2, 1-1)

Stanford keeps blowing teams out, and Andrew Luck keeps playing amazing football on his way to a Heisman trophy. Washington State has showed some fight this season and if they hadn't choked against UCLA last weekend would be 4-1. I think this will end up being Stanford's toughest game this season but tough is relative, they will still win by two scores.

Prediction: Stanford 37, Washington State 23

#8 Clemson (6-0, 3-0) at Maryland (2-3, 1-1)

Everyone is still waiting for Clemson to revert back to the norm but the Tigers keep winning. Now they face a Terps team in some turmoil as a quarterback controversy has erupted. It is not clear if C.J. Brown or Danny O'Brien will start for Maryland but what is clear is that it likely doesn't matter. Clemson will only lose this game if they beat themselves and have turnovers or something. The Terps defense showed fire at Georgia Tech last weekend in limiting the Yellow Jackets attack, so because of that I expect the Terps to hang around for a bit. However, too much Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins for the Terps to pull an upset.

Prediction: Clemson 26, Maryland 17

#18 Arizona State (5-1, 3-0) at #9 Oregon (4-1, 2-0)

The absence of star running back LaMichael James for the Ducks gives the Sun Devils some hope. Arizona State's only loss this year was by 3 points to undefeated Illinois, and by Pac-10 standards they have a pretty good defense. Despite being without James, the Ducks still have plenty of depth as both Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas have had success rushing the ball. The quarterbacks will also be fun to watch. Ducks QB Darron Thomas has 15 TDs and 2 INTs, while Sun Devils QB Brock Osweiler is extremely accurate and has 13 TDs to 6 INTs this season. Dennis Erickson has done enough this season to get himself off the hot seat but his team isn't ready to win a road game like this. That being said their is a pretty good chance these teams could see each other again in the Pac-12 Championship game.

Prediction: Oregon 27, Arizona State 20

Last Week: 11-0!!!!!!!! (28-0 my last three weeks)
Overall: 53-4

The Hail Mary - Week 5

2011-10-06T18:24:00.025-04:00

I feel like crap and probably shouldn't be at work, let alone doing the Hail Mary today. However, I owe it to you, my loyal, select readers, that live and die with my slightly above .500 picks. The games this weekend are mostly how I feel, shitty. However, in good news, the 49ers are 3-1 and technically play in the best game of the weekend, against the also 3-1 Buccaneers. I was hoping to finally have a Sunday where I did nothing all day but watch football. But alas, it looks like I may be roped into apple picking. Either way, I will do whatever it takes, turn my phone off, record all the games, make myself deaf, so that I can come home and watch football all day.

Week 5 - Sunday, October 9

Philadelphia (1-3) at Buffalo (3-1), Philadelphia favored by 2 1/2

Do or die game for the "don't call us the Dream Team anymore" Eagles. That loss to the Niners sure was embarrassing. Blowing a 20 point lead to a team that came into the game averaging 3 yards a play? Deplorable. I still have faith that the Eagles, my preseason Super Bowl pick, can live up to the hype. Remember, the Miami Heat took some time to gel. That noise you heard last weekend was people jumping off the Bills bandwagon after they blew a 14 point lead to the Bungles. It turns out Buffalo fell for the trap game, and here I thought they were actually legit after their win over the Patriots. The schedule is very rough for the Bills for the next month and I think people will have to settle for the Lions if they want a feel good story. The Eagles will be without Jason Peters on the offensive line and Trent Cole on the defensive line. Those are key losses but desperate teams with talent usually win when they have to. I think Vick plays amazing, shreds the Bills defense and carries Philly to a much needed victory.

Prediction: Philadelphia 30, Buffalo 24

Kansas City (1-3) at Indianapolis (0-4), Indianapolis favored by 2 1/2

Not sure who in the world wants to watch this game. I would take apple picking over this game no questions asked. Curtis Painter looked somewhat competent in the Monday Night game, and at least appears to have some chemistry with his targets, unlike Kerry Collins. The Chiefs managed to get their first win by somehow finding a team that was worse than them in the Minnesota Vikings. The Colts have to win sometime, right? No better time than at home against sorry Kansas City.

Prediction: Indianapolis 23, Kansas City 15

Arizona (1-3) at Minnesota (0-4), Minnesota favored by 2 1/2

Another dreadful game, although at least this one has some star power. The Cardinals find new and exciting ways to lose each week, while the Vikings also found a different way to lose as at least last week they didn't blow a gigantic lead. Baby steps I suppose. If the Vikings fall to 0-5 you have to think that would be the end of the Donovan McNabb era but who knows. Just run Adrian Peterson 35 times and win the freaking game Vikings.

Prediction: Minnesota 21, Arizona 20

Seattle (1-3) at New York Giants (3-1), New York Giants favored by 10

The Giants were left for dead prior to the season starting after all the injuries to their defense. They laid an egg in the opener against the Redskins but have since reeled off three straight victories and are starting to get some of those injured players back. The Seahawks are dreadful on the road and I expect Tavaris Jackson to have a few fumbles, throw a few picks, you know, be himself.

Prediction: New York Giants 28, Seattle 13

Tennessee (3-1) at Pittsburgh (2-2), Pittsburgh favored by 6

When will Vegas get with the program that the Steelers aren't that good. Their wins come against teams with a combined record of 1-7, and their defense has been shredded by both Ray Rice and Arian Foster. Hell, Joseph Addai was having success running on them. Chris Johnson finally went over 100 yards last weekend, and should have a big game this weekend. The Titans appear to be for real and Matt Hasselbeck is playing like a guy that isn't ready to turn the reigns over to Jake Locker anytime soon. The Steelers are banged up and I may have to end up admitting that Warren Sapp was right about them after they drop this game.

Prediction: Tennessee 19, Pittsburgh 17

New Orleans (3-1) at Carolina (1-3), New Orleans favored by 6

Cam Newton has made the Carolina Panthers appointment viewing. That is an amazing feat in and of itself. The Panthers have been competitive in every game and you can tell that they are just one of those teams that once they learn how to win those close games, will be competing for a playoff spot. Unfortunately, that seems more likely to happen in either 2012 or 2013. Their defense can't stop anyone and after a quiet week last game, I expect Drew Brees to put up some huge numbers against the Panthers.

Prediction: New Orleans 34, Carolina 30

Cincinnati (2-2) at Jacksonville (1-3), Jacksonville favored by 2 1/2

It's the battle of the teams with the dwindling or non-existent fan bases! The Bengals have had a pretty easy schedule and with the Steelers sucking may have a chance at competing in the AFC North. I guess this game is sort of intriguing because its a battle of rookie quarterbacks. The Bengals Andy Dalton versus the Jaguars Blaine Gabbert. Oh, who am I kidding, this game blows.

Prediction: Cincinnati 17, Jacksonville 14

Oakland (2-2) at Houston (3-1), Houston favored by 6

Still not quite ready to believe in the Texans. We will really see what they are made of as they will be missing Andre Johnson for a few weeks. Matt Schaub isn't nearly as good as everyone has been fooled into thinking because of Johnson, so the Texans have to hope that Arian Foster is ready to stay healthy. He was fantastic last weekend, and I think he carries the Texans to another victory this weekend. This could be a good old fashioned NFL game where running the ball wins as Foster battles the Raiders Darren McFadden.

Prediction: Houston 24, Oakland 21

Tampa Bay (3-1) at San Francisco (3-1), San Francisco favored by 2 1/2

I am becoming cautiously optimistic about the 49ers finally returning to the playoffs after a 9 year absence. They have a chance this weekend to go up three games in the division. It won't come easy against the Bucs, who manhandled San Francisco at Candlestick last season, 21-0. I think things are different now that the Niners have not only a good motivator but someone that is a competent coach in Jim Harbaugh. It was nice to see Frank Gore finally get going but it remains to be seen if that was simply a product of the Eagles being atrocious on defense. The Niners offense has performed better at home and I am counting on that trend continuing for them to pick up their third straight win.

Prediction: San Francisco 20, Tampa Bay 17

San Diego (3-1) at Denver (1-3), San Diego favored by 4

So the Chargers finally covered against a crappy team. If they do it two weeks in a row then maybe I will finally start picking them to cover again. Their schedule has been ridiculously easy thus far. Their wins have come against opponents with a combined 1-11 record. We won't know anything more about them after they beat the crappy Broncos, but with Rivers struggling against these bad teams, it doesn't bode well for when the schedule picks up.

Prediction: San Diego 31, Denver 28

New York Jets (2-2) at New England (3-1), New England favored by 9 1/2

Revenge will be on the mind of the New England Patriots, while desperation is how the Jets feel. The Jets shocked the Patriots in the playoffs last season and then celebrated like they had won the Super Bowl. You know that probably didn't sit well with Belichick and company. The Jets have dropped two straight games and looked terrible in both of them. Against the Raiders the defense looked awful, while against the Ravens it was the offense's turn to be abysmal. The Jets chances rest on them re-assuming their identity of being a ground and pound team. This is not a team meant to have Sanchez dropping back to pass 35-40 times. Shonn Greene has to get something going on the ground, and if he can't the Jets need to give LaDainian Tomlinson or Joe McKnight a shot. If the Jets can't get the running game going, the Patriots will constantly be on offense and will shred the Jets. I think the Jets keep it interesting and hold the Patriots under 30 points, but it won't be enough.

Prediction: New England 24, New York Jets 17

Green Bay (4-0) at Atlanta (2-2), Green Bay favored by 5 1/2

Another playoff revenge game in the Sunday nighter. The Falcons were embarrassed at home last post-season when Aaron Rodgers went off on them and had probably the greatest performance of his career. The Falcons have been less than impressive through four games as evidenced by them nearly blowing a 20 point lead to a bad Seattle team. If Tavaris Jackson can light your defense up for over 300 yards, there is no telling what Rodgers will do to them. The Packers defense is still lagging well behind the offense and that will keep this game relatively close.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Atlanta 24

Monday, October 10

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (4-0), Detroit favored by 6

Monday Night Football returns to Detroit! Hank Williams won't be able to make the trip, he's playing golf with Obama or something. The Lions were once again down but for the second straight weekend not out, as they rallied to beat the Cowboys. Ford Field should be electric and it will be fun to watch how excited the players and fans will be now that Lions are truly relevant. Ndamukong Suh is going to eat Jay Cutler for breakfast, lunch, and dinner in this game. Nick Fairley may even get his first action of the season, and would bolster an already strong Lions defensive front. I am curious to see if Roy Williams makes his presence felt in his return to Detroit but most likely he will continue to be a waste of space. The old Lions would blow a game like this, but the old Lions wouldn't have come from behind the last two weeks. Detroit 5-0, yes, Detroit 5-0.

Prediction: Detroit 28, Chicago 17

Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 40-24

Last Week Against the Spread: 8-8
Overall Against the Spread: 33-29-2

Cram Session - Week 6

2011-10-05T12:48:00.029-04:00

The Red River Rivalry, Shootout, whatever the heck it is called is the big game this weekend. Despite Bob Stoops saying he didn't really give a crap if Oklahoma continued playing Texas every year, fans of the Sooners and Longhorns would heartily disagree. Texas finally seems to have a quarterback, or I should say quarterbacks with David Ash and Case McCoy. The question is, can they rely on a freshman and a sophomore to upset big, bad Oklahoma?

Games That Matter to Me

Saturday, October 8

Ohio State (3-2, 0-1) at #14 Nebraska (4-1, 0-1)

I wasn't expecting a win at Wisconsin and I certainly thought it had a chance to get ugly, but man, that was an embarrassing night to be a Huskers fan. The reality is Nebraska can't compete with the best and haven't been able to compete with the best for a decade now. It is what it is I suppose. Now, they have their first Big 10, really 12, home game of the season against the scandal ridden Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes were hoping to get back RB Dan Herron and WR DeVier Posey for this game, but they were suspended an additional game for not being able to keep their hands out of the cookie jar, or at least being smart enough not to get caught. The Buckeyes are an absolute mess on offense and make Nebraska look like a powerhouse on that side of the ball. The Huskers troubles on defense this season are well documented, but if they allow the Buckeyes to push them around then I will be convinced that Bill Callahan is somehow back coaching this team and not the Pelini brothers. Taylor Martinez is the only chance Ohio State has of winning this game. He started off strong at Wisconsin, and then completely fell apart, throwing three crippling interceptions. He can't turn the ball over in this game. The Buckeyes have a strong defense and can force Martinez into mistakes. The Huskers can't get cute, stick to what they do best and do well, pound the ball down the Buckeyes throats. If they do that, they win by two touchdowns.

Prediction: Nebraska 28, Ohio State 14

Air Force (3-1) at Notre Dame (3-2)

Turns out I gave Purdue way too much credit. They weren't even in Notre Dame's league and that game was basically over when it started. Michael Floyd continues to make his case that he is the best receiver in the country. Tommy Rees was strong and the Irish finally went a game without a turnover. The only thing that went wrong for Notre Dame that night was Rees sister getting arrested for being drunk and disorderly. The Irish now welcome the Falcons, who are fresh off a thrilling rivalry win over Navy. Like the other military academies the Falcons love to run the ball and pass only when necessary. That plays right into the Irish's hands as they are very strong against the run. The Falcons best weapon is RB Asher Clark who is averaging a little over 9 yards a carry. He was a beast against Navy, rushing for 91 yards on 8 carries and scoring 2 touchdowns. The Falcons will hope to wear down the Irish with their ground attack, then choose their spots passing and hopefully hit something. I hope the Irish remain focused, just because they have won three in a row doesn't mean a thing. After an 0-2 start this season can still end up being a success as the only true game they would be an underdog in is at Stanford.

Prediction: Notre Dame 33, Air Force 24

Top 10 - Thursday, October 6

California (3-1, 0-1) at #9 Oregon (3-1, 1-0)

Oregon has been tearing through teams since getting stomped by a very good LSU team in Week 1. They have put up 69, 56, and 56 points in their last three games, all wins of course. The Golden Bears lost their first Pac-10 game on the road to Washington, so the odds of them going to Autzen and pulling out a win are slim. LaMichael James continues to shred defenses and I don't expect the Bears to do much to slow him down.

Prediction: Oregon 45, California 28

Friday, October 7

#5 Boise State (4-0) at Fresno State (2-3)

So I talk Kellen Moore up, basically guarantee he will have a great game against Nevada and he went out and laid an egg. It didn't matter as the Broncos still won handily in their revenge game against Nevada. Next up they travel to Fresno State. The Bulldogs aren't afraid to play anyone, but they couldn't even beat Ole Piss at home, no chance they win against Boise State.

Prediction: Boise State 42, Fresno State 20

Saturday, October 8

#17 Florida (4-1, 2-1) at #1 LSU (5-0, 2-0)

This game has lost a ton of luster with John Brantley being out for the Gators at quarterback. Brantley isn't an amazing or anything but he is a far better option than the overwhelmed freshman Jeff Driskel. The Gators running attack could get nothing going against the Tide and this weekend they face what may be an even better defense. The only thing that will keep this game from being a complete massacre is LSU's inability to do much on offense. Jordan Jefferson is back from his suspension and itching to play, so it will be interesting to watch if him and Jarrett Lee split duties.

Prediction: LSU 27, Florida 10

Vanderbilt (3-1, 1-1) at #2 Alabama (5-0, 2-0)

Bama was dominant in the Swamp and now gets the over matched Commodores at home. Their only possible slip up before the November 5th meeting with LSU is against Tennessee the week prior. Until then, they will continue to slaughter offenses and work to get better.

Prediction: Alabama 35, Vanderbilt 9

#3 Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0) at #11 Texas (4-0, 1-0)

I would love to be able to attend this game one year even though I don't like either team. Watching on TV it always seems like an awesome event and a good time. Texas fans are eager to proclaim the team back after last season's 5-7 nightmare. They certainly have looked better on offense since Garrett Gilbert was displaced. The Sooners are the far superior team when it comes to passing the ball but the Longhorns may be able to control the game with their running attack. Freshman Malcolm Brown is their main back but their goal line weapon is Foswhitt Whitaker, who has 4 touchdowns. Sooners QB Landry Jones has 10 touchdowns but is prone to mistakes as his 5 INTs will attest. Texas has to control clock and force Jones into mistakes. This game will be exciting but the Sooners are just a little bit better.

Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Texas 21

Kansas (2-2, 0-1) at #6 Oklahoma State (4-0, 1-0)

Oklahoma State made me look great by not only beating Texas A&M as I predicted but by beating them by one point as I also predicted. Kansas will make them look great this weekend as they don't believe in playing defense.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 57, Kansas 23

Colorado (1-4, 0-1) at #7 Stanford (4-0, 2-0)

What the hell happened to Colorado football? Dan Hawkins truly was a terrible coach there. The Buffaloes have been competitive this season but haven't been able to earn wins. The Cardinal, behind Andrew Luck continue to do what good teams do, beat up on inferior opponents. This weekend should be another comfortable win, but next weekend should present a challenge when they travel to Pullman to take on a rejuvenated Washington State team.

Prediction: Stanford 40, Colorado 15

Boston College (1-4, 0-2) at #8 Clemson (5-0, 2-0)

The Eagles are awful, how in the hell do you lose to Duke at home? Can't wait for Notre Dame to play them later this season. Clemson is most definitely for real after a 3 weeks stretch saw them beat Auburn, Florida State, and embarrass Virginia Tech. It is up to their coach Dabo Swinney to keep them level-headed and not start to read too much of their press clippings. They have the players to be a contender throughout the rest of the season, starting with a name you should get familiar with, their QB Tajh Boyd. Boyd has 14 TDs and just 2 INTs and is completing 61% of his passes. Even better news for the Tigers is he is just a sophomore.

Prediction: Clemson 28, Boston College 16

#15 Auburn (4-1, 2-0) at #10 Arkansas (4-1, 0-1)

The Auburn Tigers are another that made me look good, going on the road and beating highly overrated South Carolina. A lot of people were down on the Tigers because of how many starters they lost. That makes sense but I also thought that the Tigers had enough good players coming back, and the right amount of coaching to stay competitive. It doesn't get any easier this weekend as they now have to travel to Arkansas. The Razorbacks overcame a huge deficit to knock off Texas A&M but still need a win here to avoid an 0-2 start in SEC play. If this game was at Auburn I would go with the Tigers but home field is enough for me to pick Arkansas.

Prediction: Arkansas 28, Auburn 24

Last Week: 8-0!!!! (I have gone 17-0 my last two weeks)
Overall: 42-4

The Hail Mary - Week 4

2011-09-29T17:16:00.038-04:00

Not a ton of exciting games in this weekend's schedule but the NFL usually never lacks for exciting theater. Watching Red Zone last weekend for the 1:00 games, it was awesome as just about every game came down to the wire. The highlight of this weekend is the Sunday Night game between the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets. Every Sunday night game thus far has been close and it should be no different this weekend.

Week 4 - Sunday, October 2

Carolina (1-2) at Chicago (1-2), Chicago favored by 6 1/2

It is starting to look like that Bears blowout of the Falcons wasn't nearly as impressive as it first appeared. The Falcons are just 1-2 and haven't looked good at all, and the Bears have stumbled since that game, losing by double digits in each of their losses. This is the first game the Bears have been favored in this year, and it doesn't look nearly as easy as it appeared when September began. Cam Newton and the Panthers have shown fight through the first three weeks. Newton finally came back down to Earth against Jacksonville last weekend but he was able to overcome a monsoon and help lead the Panthers to victory. Jay Cutler is just hoping he survives another week behind his leaky offensive line. The Bears need to let their entire offense revolved around Matt Forte. He is clearly their best player and is a dual threat running and catching the ball. He is also on my fantasy team but that's neither here nor there.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Carolina 16

Buffalo (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2), Buffalo favored by 3

All I could do was shake my head in disbelief as the Buffalo Bills overcame a 21-0 deficit against the New England Patriots. Never in a million years did I expect that to happen. The Bills don't like to start games until the second half and they need to figure that out, as that formula won't work for them all season. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the Bills started 4-0 in 2008 and ended up 7-9. Some think that this will be a let down game for the Bills and that is certainly possible. However, Andy Dalton and the Bengals were dreadful last weekend and I don't think they can be the team to hand the Bills their first loss.

Prediction: Buffalo 28, Cincinnati 14

Tennessee (2-1) at Cleveland (2-1), Cleveland favored by 1 1/2

Is Matt Hasselbeck on steroids? That isn't a serious question but he must have gone into a time machine because he is playing the best football of his career since 2005 when he led the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. Hasselebeck seemed on the down turn of his career plus he was going to have to learn a whole new offense. Those haven't proven to be pitfalls so far but things got a little harder with Kenny Britt now being out for the season. The Browns are 2-1 and probably should be 3-0 had they not laid an egg at home in Week 1 against the Bengals. They managed to win without RB Peyton Hillis last weekend and will get him back for this game as his sore throat has cleared up. I think even without Britt the Titans are the better team and I also think that Chris Johnson may finally score a TD or break 100 yards in this game.

Prediction: Tennessee 23, Cleveland 17

Detroit (3-0) at Dallas (2-1), Dallas favored by 1 1/2

Despite the worst efforts of their center Phil Costa, the Cowboys managed to beat the Redskins. Tony Romo was absolutely amazing, incredible ZOMG in playing through injuries because that never happens in the NFL. The Lions were doing exactly what I thought they would against the Vikings, being Minnesota's bitch in the Metrodome. Then things flipped and the Lions showed that things will be different this season. If Stafford and Calvin Johnson can remain healthy both will be Pro Bowlers at the end of the season. I think Romo is going to take a pounding from the Lions defense, and I don't think the Cowboys can slow down the Lions offense. Detroit and Buffalo 4-0? What a strange, strange world.

Prediction: Detroit 27, Dallas 23

Minnesota (0-3) at Kansas City (0-3), Minnesota favored by 1 1/2

I hope the Vikings are losing this game at halftime, maybe that is the secret to them earning their first victory. There certainly is no advantage to them having a double digit lead at halftime. You would think when you have one of the best running backs in football that a lead would be safe, but if you don't use Adrian Peterson and instead rely on Donovan McNubb, second half collapses happen. If the Vikings can't beat the piss poor Chiefs then its time to start developing a young quarterback, be it Joe Webb or Christian Ponder.

Prediction: Minnesota 19, Kansas City 14

Washington (2-1) at St. Louis (0-3), Line is Even

Well it's obvious Vegas thinks very little of the Redskins, making this a pick em game against the winless Rams. However, its not like the Redskins have given Vegas much reason to insert them as the favorite. The Skins have always had trouble with the Rams, including last season when they were basically dominated by St. Louis. That loss ended up not looking as bad once the season ended as the Rams actually finished with a better record than the Skins. The Skins have to be ready to play, no game is a gimme game for them. They can't just walk in, show up, and expect to win. Let the fans think nonsense like that but the players have to be ready to play. Monday night's loss was tough to swallow, but this game against St. Louis and how Washington responds will say a lot about them as a team. Also, if Tim Hightower is doing next to nothing again, can Roy Helu please get some more touches? Hell, bring back Ryan Torain's corpse and let him run it a few times. St. Louis is banged up and not feeling too great about themselves right now, especially QB Sam Bradford, who without a running game has been left out on an island. The Skins will make it interesting because that is what they do, but I think this team is different and they win.

Prediction: Washington 20, St. Louis 17

San Francisco (2-1) at Philadelphia (1-2), Philadelphia favored by 9

That Eagles performance against the Giants was shocking. I thought even without Vick they were clearly better than the Giants and could handle their business. They struggled with Vick in the game, came back, then with Vick out the Giants sealed the down. The defense is looking like a defense that is coached by a guy that was an offensive line coach last season. That being said it isn't time to panic for the Eagles. They brought in a lot of new pieces and it takes time for those pieces to come together. Now, if they lose to the 49ers, who are averaging barely over 3 yards per play, then they can panic. The Niners needs just 5 more wins to wrap up the NFC West!

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, San Francisco 17

New Orleans (2-1) at Jacksonville (1-2), New Orleans favored by 7

Blaine Gabbert was okay in his debut and this will obviously be a season of growing pains for him and the Jaguars. The Saints offense remains explosive, while questions abound about the defense. If the Saints are lit up by a rookie QB making his second start, it might to be time to panic in N'awlins.

Prediction: New Orleans 35, Jacksonville 17

Pittsburgh (2-1) at Houston (2-1), Houston favored by 3 1/2

Still not sure what to make of either of these teams. The Steelers two wins have come against dog crap teams, and they really struggled to beat the Colts. The Texans looked poised to upset the Saints and convince me that they had arrived but in typical Texans fashion they choked away the game. The Steelers haven't looked right on offense yet. Ben Roethlisberger has made some dumb throws and Rashard Mendenhall hasn't gotten on track. The Texans expect Arian Foster back in this game, but I would be shocked if he makes much of an impact since he has seen very little action this season. All signs point to this being a Houston win but the past indicates that's a sign to pick against the Texans.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 21, Houston 20

New York Giants (2-1) at Arizona (1-2), New York Giants favored by 2

The Giants were impressive in dismantling the Eagles, there is no denying that. I still am not sure that the Giants are any good though. I guess I can't get the fact that Redskins manhandled them in Week 1 out of my head. I also probably still overvalue the Cardinals. I did pick them to win the NFC West and they have shown flashes. But losing at Seattle and putting up just 10 points was not a good sign. This is probably another pick I will regret but I feel like Arizona is a different team at home. I think the good Cardinals will show up Sunday, and mistake prone Eli returns, leading to a Cardinals win.

Prediction: Arizona 23, New York Giants 19

Atlanta (1-2) at Seattle (1-2), Atlanta favored by 4 1/2

This is a must win for the Falcons. They haven't shown much this year and a loss to a bad Seahawks team may doom them. Their offensive line has struggled mightily to protect Ryan, and Michael Turner hasn't done enough on the ground to stop teams from bum rushing Ryan. The Seahawks managed a win at home, as they often do but they still have Tavaris Jackson as their quarterback. Sidney Rice looked good in his return to action but the question is how long until he is hurt again?

Prediction: Atlanta 21, Seattle 17

Denver (1-2) at Green Bay (3-0), Green Bay favored by 13

This line feels high to me. The Packers look like the best team in the league but they haven't blown anyone out yet. While the Broncos are just 1-2 they have been competitive in every game. I don't think this game will go down to the wire or anything but I expect the Broncos to at least make it respectable.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Denver 21

Miami (0-3) at San Diego (2-1), San Diego favored by 7 1/2

The Dolphins loss to the Browns was heart breaking. They had the lead most of the game, time was running out and then the Browns managed a ridiculous throw and catch to get the win. Tony Sparano's days seem numbered as the losses continue to pile up. The Chargers managed to let the Chiefs hang around, mostly because they are coached by Norv Turner and will always underachieve as long as the is the head guy. Philip Rivers has gotten off to a slow start, which is odd because he has his full complement of receivers, although he certainly misses Antonio Gates. The Chargers will let Miami hang around and knowing the Dolphins they will probably lose in some ridiculous fashion.

Prediction: San Diego 26, Miami 20

New York Jets (2-1) at Baltimore (2-1), Baltimore favored by 3 1/2

The Jets defense has been pushed around 2 out of the 3 weeks of the season. It has really been shocking to watch. The Raiders had no problem running it down the Jets throats. What hurts worse for the Jets is the offense has performed very well. If the defense played to its usual form the Jets would be getting talked about as the best team in the league. The Ravens righted the ship against a bad St. Louis team, but I still think the Ravens are somewhere in the middle of the team that killed the Steelers and lost to the Titans. This is a statement game for the Jets defense. Rex Ryan has probably been beating it into their heads all week about how they are being disrespected. I expect the defense to play better but Baltimore is a really tough place to win.

Prediction: Baltimore 20, New York Jets 16

Monday, October 3

Indianapolis (0-3) at Tampa Bay (2-1), Tampa Bay favored by 10

Curtis Painter finally has his chance, much to Reggie Wayne's excitement. This whole Peyton Manning thing sucks but what makes it even worse is the Colts are going to ruin so many prime time games this season. This game will probably be pretty boring and I don't anticipate watching much of it unless the Colts manage to keep it close. Not much to say about Tampa Bay, except where has Mike Williams disappeared to? You need to start playing Mike, people are counting on you!

Prediction: Tampa Bay 22, Indianapolis 13

Last Week Straight Up: 9-7
Overall Straight Up: 29-19

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-6
Overall Against the Spread: 25-21-2

Cram Session - Week 5

2011-09-28T16:35:00.022-04:00

The two biggest games of the weekend take place at 8 PM. There will be many people switching back and forth between Nebraska/Wisconsin and Alabama/Florida. This is when college football is at its best. The cupcakes get pushed aside and the best conferences finally start having their teams match up. For Nebraska it is the start of a new era and the Big Ten couldn't have made it any more difficult then sending them to Wisconsin for a prime time game.

Game That Matters to Me

Notre Dame (2-2) at Purdue (2-1)

Sometimes you take a win any way you can get it, no matter how ugly it is. That is what Notre Dame did at Pittsburgh last weekend. The offense struggled all day, especially turnover machine QB Tommy Rees. However, Rees came up big at the end of the game when needed and the Irish climbed back to .500. The Irish are back on the road at Purdue, and a win here could set them up nicely for their upcoming next 3 games at home. Purdue is likely to go with dual quarterbacks in this game. The starter will be Caleb TerBush but Robert Marve is back from injury and is expected to see some time. Purdue's strength is their ground game. They average 258.7 yards per game, good enough for 10th in the country. The last few weeks teams have really struggled to run the ball on Notre Dame. Purdue will have to get something going on the ground behind Ralph Bolden or Akeem Shavers, and TerBush is also a threat to run the ball. Justin Siller is the Boilermakers leading receiver but Purdue only goes to the pass when need be. It would be nice if the Irish could finally have a game where they win the turnover battle. Purdue might be the team to do that against. They barely beat Middle Tennessee at home and lost at Rice. This is a team Notre Dame should beat, and beat rather handily, no matter when and where the game is played.

Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Purdue 21

Top 10 - Saturday, October 1

Kentucky (2-2, 0-1) at #1 LSU (4-0, 1-0)

LSU dominated their brutal September stretch and were rewarded by becoming the #1 team in the country. They get a one week break as the awful Wildcats come to Baton Rouge. LSU better enjoy this weekend, because next weekend the Gators come to town.

Prediction: LSU 42, Kentucky 9

Ball State (3-1) at #2 Oklahoma (3-0)

The Sooners scuffled a bit against Missouri at home, falling behind 14-3 early, before turning on the jets and getting the victory. The scuffling was enough though for people to promptly forget they beat Florida State the weekend before and proclaim it a two team race between Alabama and LSU. I'm not ready to cast aside the Sooners that quickly. A win over Ball State won't change anyone 's mind but next weekend is the Red River Shootout against Texas, where the Sooners can repair them image.

Prediction: Oklahoma 41, Ball State 13

#3 Alabama (4-0, 1-0) at #12 Florida (4-0, 2-0)

Will Muschamp faces his first true test as Gators coach. He did have to deal with Tennessee two weeks ago, but the Vols are a shell of their former selves. Through four games the Gators have looked unstoppable running the ball. The man behind that is the certifiably insane Chris Rainey. Rainey has rushed for over 100 yards his last three games. Bama will also have to watch him on the receiving end. He is the Gators leading receiver as well and can break off big plays that way too, as seen against the Vols when he had an 83-yard TD catch. Florida QB John Brantley has been serviceable so far, but if the Tide slow down Rainey, he will have to make a play or two. Gator nation will be holding their collective breaths if that happens. As for Alabama, they have a similar philosophy as Florida. Play ball control on offense and pound teams in submission with their running game. While Rainey does it with finesse, Trent Richardson does it with power running. The Tide have also given Eddie Lacy more time now that the backfield is less crowded with Mark Ingram in the NFL. This game will be very old school, both teams trying to dictate the tempo to one another and the team that is more successful running and stopping the run, will win. The Swamp will be rocking but Bama is just too good.

Prediction: Alabama 30, Florida 20

Nevada (1-2) at #4 Boise State (3-0)

REVENGE!!! The last two weeks teams have gotten revenge in their revenge games. The Huskers beat the Huskies, and the Sooners beat Missouri. Now Boise State will try to avenge their heartbreaking loss last season at Nevada. That loss kept Boise out of the BCS championship game, and the BCS altogether. Nevada no longer has Colin Kaepernick at QB and the shock of that showed in their opening loss disaster at Oreon. They have played more competitively since then and nearly knocked off Texas Tech last weekend. This is the last of their four road games to open the season. Kellen Moore continues to be outstanding and I expect another scintillating performance from him in this game.

Prediction: Boise State 45, Nevada 23

UCLA (2-2, 1-1) at #6 Stanford (3-0, 1-0)

The Cardinal had a week off and now return to biding their time until they travel to USC on October 29th. They get dead man walking Rick Neuheisal and UCLA this weekend at home. UCLA stopped the bleeding a bit with a win against Oregon State next week but the calls for Neuheisel's head will probably return after Andrew Luck and the Cardinal blow out the Bruins Saturday night.

Prediction: Stanford 40, UCLA 14

#8 Nebraska (4-0, 0-0) at #7 Wisconsin (4-0, 0-0)

As a Huskers fan I have been both dreading and looking forward to this game. I am excited for Nebraska to start their Big 10 (really 12) era and for them to start a bunch of new rivalries. However, I am dreading what could happen under the lights against a very good Wisconsin team. The Badgers have been awesome through four games. Now, it remains to be seen how much that means as they have played a bunch of loser bums. Nebraska hasn't faced a murderer's row in their first four but Washington and Wyoming are far better than anything Wisconsin has seen. Nebraska's defense has struggled and trying to slow down Badgers quarterback Russell Wilson will be one of their bigger tests in the last few seasons. Other offensive players that have be on the Huskers radar are RBs Montee Ball and James White, as well as WR Nick Toon (is he related to Al Toon?). The Huskers have slowed down highly touted QBs in the past but this year's defense hasn't shown the form to inspire confidence that will happen again. The offense has been putting up plenty of points and will have to in this game for Nebraska to win. Nebraska obviously has to establish the run with Rex Burkhead and also open up spaces for Taylor Martinez to use his most dangerous weapon, his legs. People waiting for Martinez to become a passing quarterback shouldn't hold their breath. It can be argued whether that is necessary for him to take Nebraska to a championship level but for now he is what he is. Bo Pelini has helped make Nebraska relevant again but he is still searching for that signature win. The Huskers have come up small in big spots like these for the past decade, so the fan base is naturally not feeling so confident about Saturday night. I hope I am wrong.

Prediction: Wisconsin 34, Nebraska 21

Auburn (3-1, 1-0) at #10 South Carolina (4-0, 2-0)

I really want South Carolina to lose a game. They have a dreadful QB in Stephen Garcia and no one with a brain really thinks they are one of the ten best teams in the country. I predicted 9-3 for Auburn before the season and was called crazy. I might be crazy but I am sticking with the Tigers enough to expect them to pull the upset. Garcia can't keep making mistakes week after week and expecting Marcus Lattimore and his defense to bail him out.

Prediction: Auburn 31, South Carolina 30

Last Week: 9-0!!!!
Overall: 34-4

The Hail Mary - Week 3

2011-09-22T18:55:00.035-04:00

I am not sure I have ever had as much trouble picking games as I had picking them this week. There are a ton of games this weekend between mediocre teams or teams where I am not sure whether they are for real or not. However, I know that my faithful band of 30+ readers expects me to have these picks, so I went forth and conquered.

Week 3 - Sunday, September 25

New England (2-0) at Buffalo (2-0), New England favored by 9

The media has been hyping this game up as Buffalo's chance to prove themselves. They have lost 15 straight games to the Patriots. 15 straight! The Bills are 2-0 but excuse me if I don't want to crown them because they beat a sorry Chiefs team and had to make a furious comeback to beat an average Raiders team. Tom Brady had another huge passing game and continues to make quarterbacking look way too easy. The Bills defense let Jason Campbell light them up, Brady is going to have a field day.

Prediction: New England 31, Buffalo 17

San Francisco (1-1) at Cincinnati (1-1), Cincinnati favored by 2 1/2

The 49ers will recognize a lot of faces on the Bengals defense. Manny Lawson, Nate Clements, and Taylor Mays were all with the 49ers last season and now are on the Bengals. This is one of those games I was having a hard time picking. The Bengals look better than I expected, with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green developing a chemistry quicker than expected. However, I still am not buying the Bengals are anything more than a 4 win team. This is a game the Niners should win, but you never know with Alex Smith back there.

Prediction: San Francisco 21, Cincinnati 19

Miami (0-2) at Cleveland (1-1), Cleveland favored by 2 1/2

The Dolphins are ecstatic to be going on the road. They have lost 9 of their last 10 home games, but went 6-2 away from Pro Player Sun Life Joe Robbie Stadium last year. They just seem to play better on the road, including the defense, which has been awful, and Chad Henne, who reverted to his awful form last weekend. I still can't get the Browns losing at home to Cincinnati out of my head. I like the Dolphins in the mini upset.

Prediction: Miami 23, Cleveland 21

Denver (1-1) at Tennessee (1-1), Tennessee favored by 7

More mediocre teams that you don't really know what to make of. The Titans were impressive in blowing out Baltimore. Matt Hasselbeck shredded the Ravens overrated defense. Chris Johnson is still under performing and you know Titans fans are crossing their fingers this isn't a Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson story about to play out. You know, where the running back holds out for more money, gets paid and then his career falls apart. If Johnson can't get it going against a porous Broncos defense, then there will be some cause for concern.

Prediction: Tennessee 27, Denver 24

Detroit (2-0) at Minnesota (0-2), Detroit favored by 3 1/2

The Lions are 2-0!!!! Detroit fans everywhere are losing their minds. I'm still not buying. You know how I will start buying it? Go to Minnesota on Sunday and beat the Vikings. The Lions never win in Minnesota. The Vikings have been the best first half team in football, but unfortunately have been the worst second half team in football. The Lions have cured their ills in the past, why not one more time?

Prediction: Minnesota 24, Detroit 21

Houston (2-0) at New Orleans (1-1), New Orleans favored by 4

No team has had a tougher schedule to start the season then the Saints. This week they welcome the 2-0 Texans to the Superdome. I hope Texan fans are keeping their 2-0 start in perspective. They started 2-0 last season, then the bottom fell out and they went 4-10 to finish the season. They have no excuses this year as the AFC South is a complete dumpster fire. Wade Phillips has already seemed to have an effect on the defense but playing Kerry Collins and Chad Henne won't have them ready for the firepower of Drew Brees.

Prediction: New Orleans 28, Houston 17

New York Giants (1-1) at Philadelphia (1-1), NO LINE

No line available on this game because of the uncertain status of Mike Vick. All indications are that Vick will play, and will even have Kevlar padding in his helmet. The Giants got a win Monday night, but it was a loss for all of America. What a boring game. The Eagles have looked unstoppable with Vick in the game, especially the offense. Vick plays this entire game and the Eagles will roll.

Prediction: Philadelphia 30, New York Giants 20

Jacksonville (1-1) at Carolina (0-2), Carolina favored by 3 1/2

It's the battle of the rookie quarterbacks, the Panthers Cam Newton versus the Jaguars Blaine Gabbert. Could Jack Del Rio be any more of a buffoon? Three weeks ago it was "we believe in Luke McCown, he can win games, blah, blah, I'm talking out my ass." Now not even three games into the season and he has already made the switch. Either he has tremendous job security or this was a move pushed by ownership because David Garrard would have given him the best chance to win games. Newton threw for over 400 yards again, which is impressive, but somehow his 3 interceptions against the Packers got lost in the conversation. Those type of rookie mistakes are bound to happen, but it is annoying that the media just glossed over it in their attempt to create another star. I'm not willing to say Newton will throw for 400 again but I expect him to have limited mistakes against a poor Jags defense and get his first win as an NFL starter.

Prediction: Carolina 26, Jacksonville 14

New York Jets (2-0) at Oakland (1-1), New York Jets favored by 3 1/2

This game will come down to just how big a loss Nick Mangold is for the Jets. There is no denying it will have an effect but will it completely derail the offense? I am willing to bet that it slows it down, but the Jets defense picks up the slack. I could see this game having nothing but field goals and the team with the ball last winning.

Prediction: New York Jets 18, Oakland 15

Baltimore (1-1) at St. Louis (0-2), Baltimore favored by 3 1/2

I hope no one crowned the Ravens after Week 1, because the team that showed up in Week 2 was more the team I was expecting. The Ravens are an okay team, nothing more, nothing less. They are getting old on defense, and aren't nearly as intimidating as they used to be. That being said, the Rams are a mess. Their banged up on offense and they are a team that is very young and prone to things like dropped passes and penalties. I think Ray Rice will shred the Rams defense and the Ravens win comfortably.

Prediction: Baltimore 27, St. Louis 14

Kansas City (0-2) at San Diego (1-1), San Diego favored by 14 1/2

What can you say about the Chiefs? I already expected them to take a step back but then they lose Tony Moeaki, Jamaal Charles, and Eric Berry for the season? They are snake bitten. I am usually wary of picking teams to cover spreads this high, but the Chiefs have lost by 34 and 45 points in their first two games, it would be pretty ridiculous to pick them to cover a 14 1/2 spread at this point. I will at least say they make it respectable and lose by just 21 points this weekend.

Prediction: San Diego 35, Kansas City 14

Green Bay (2-0) at Chicago (1-1), Green Bay favored by 3 1/2

The storied rivalry is also a rematch of last year's NFC Championship game. The Bears are on track to have Jay Cutler decapitated by Week 6 and Cutler even admitted as much this past week. The Packers have been less than impressive on defense, and lost S Nick Collins for the season. They did show some nice resolve coming back from a 13-0 deficit at Carolina last week. The offense is still as powerful as ever, but I think they will be slowed by the Bears defense. Aaron Rodgers has always seemed to struggle against the Bears. However, Cutler never plays that well against the Packers either, the Packers are a better team than the Bears, therefore the Packers win.

Prediction: Green Bay 21, Chicago 17

Arizona (1-1) at Seattle (0-2), Arizona favored by 3

The Seahawks look terrible but after this game we will know just how terrible they truly are. No matter how bad, the Seahawks usually have a distinct advantage at home. If they are as bad as I think they are, that advantage will be reduced to nothing this season.

Prediction: Arizona 27, Seattle 13

Atlanta (1-1) at Tampa Bay (1-1), Tampa Bay favored by 1 1/2

I'm still not sure what to make of the Falcons. They were mostly outplayed by Philadelphia and were very lucky to escape an 0-2 start. Same thing goes for the Buccaneers who had to overcome a large deficit to avoid falling to 0-2. These teams aren't far apart so that will make this game a close one. I like the Falcons offense to make a few more plays than the Bucs.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 23

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Indianapolis (0-2), Pittsburgh favored by 10 1/2

A month ago this game would have been the top game of the weekend. Without Peyton Manning, it has me questioning if I will even watch. I though with all that talent, that even without Peyton the Colts could still be competitive. However, a loss at home to the poo poo Browns is all I need to see to know that without Pey Pey the Colts are screwed. Were any of these guys even good or was it really all Manning? I almost want the Steelers to keep playing well so they can shutup that lardo Warren Sapp who proclaimed them done after one week.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 30, Indianapolis 13

Monday, September 26

Washington (2-0) at Dallas (1-1), NO LINE

I have gone back and forth on this game all week. I decided that if Tony Romo or Dez Bryant didn't play that I would definitely pick the Redskins. But it appears that even though both will be playing hurt and thus open to easily being re-injured that both Romo and Bryant should play. It will certainly help the Redskins that Miles Austin is out but with Romo having Bryant and Jason Whitten at his disposal, I still think the Cowboys passing game can have their way with the Skins defense. I also worry about Rex Grossman avoiding turnovers and the Redskins ability to slow down DeMarcus Ware. Ware could make Grossman's life a living hell and force him into fumbles and bad throws. If this game were in Washington I'd be more inclined to pick the Skins, but I just don't see a win Monday night. I hope I'm wrong.

Prediction: Dallas 28, Washington 24

Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 20-12

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-9-1
Overall Against the Spread: 15-15-2

Cram Session - Week 4

2011-09-21T14:57:00.028-04:00

This weekend conference action kicks into high gear but the most intriguing game of the weekend is a non-conference tilt between LSU and West Virginia. Last year, LSU survived at home against what wasn't a very good West Virginia team. The Mountaineers look better this season, especially QB Gino Smith. Will it make a difference though, when he faces the best defense in the country?

Game That Matters to Me

Notre Dame (1-2) at Pittsburgh (2-1)

The Irish finally got that elusive first win. They still turned the ball over way too much, but the defense and special teams picked up the slack. Plus, it helped playing such a fluke fraudy team like Michigan State. Next up is Pittsburgh which fresh off announcing their move to the ACC, squandered a huge lead at Iowa to drop their first game of the season. The Panthers haven't been impressive through the first few weeks of the season. One of their wins was a squeaker at home against Maine. Their quarterback is Tino Sunseri who currently has 3 TDs, 4 INTs and is completing passes at a 62.5% rate. However, the player the Irish need to key in on is RB Ray Graham. Graham already has 6 TDs and averages over 5 yards a carry. Problem for Pitt is, the Irish run defense has been pretty good against the run. They completely shut down Michigan State. If Pitt can't get their running game going, their only hope will be the Irish doing their weekly tradition of shooting themselves in the foot. I think the Irish are clearly a better team so as long as they can limit the turnovers they should be .500 after this game.

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Pittsburgh 24

Top 10 - Saturday, September 24

Missouri (2-1, 0-0) at #1 Oklahoma (2-0, 0-0)

Revenge games can be a huge motivator for teams, as seen with Nebraska and Washington last weekend. The #1 Sooners are playing that angle for when they welcome Missouri to Norman. Last season, Missouri knocked off the then #1 Sooners and did it in pretty convincing fashion. Missouri will have to play out of their minds if history is to repeat itself. Oklahoma has won 37 straight home games and is coming off an impressive win at Florida State. Missouri failed their only test of the season, losing to a decent but not very good Arizona State team. I expect this to be a relatively easy night for the Sooners.

Prediction: Oklahoma 41, Missouri 17

#2 LSU (3-0) at #16 West Virginia (3-0)

West Virginia is going to be shell shocked when they see and feel the difference of playing the LSU defense versus the donkeys they have played thus far. I foolishly picked against LSU last week because I still wasn't convinced their defense was good enough to cover the deficiencies of their offense. I will not make that mistake again. Mountaineers QB Gino Smith has played great so far, but reality is going to smack him in the face Saturday night. I don't think the Tigers will pitch a shutout but they will slow down the Mountaineer attack. LSU already dealt with one tough night game on the road so that won't really play a factor in this one, no matter how drunk the coeds of West Virginia are. One thing that is guaranteed, win or lose, there will be couch burning in Morgantown.

Prediction: LSU 24, West Virginia 14

#14 Arkansas (3-0, 0-0) at #3 Alabama (3-0, 0-0)

The Razorbacks finally start their season after loading up on cupcakes to begin the year. When Troy gives you all you can handle that shows me you are not ready to go to Tuscaloosa and compete with the Crimson Tide. The Crimson Tide are giving up just 6 points a game. I still rate LSU's defense ahead of them because LSU has slowed down high powered offenses like Oregon and Mississippi State. If the Crimson Tide can limit the Razorbacks to single digits or even 14 like I predict, I will consider revising those rankings.

Prediction: Alabama 30, Arkansas 14

Tulsa (1-2) at #4 Boise State (2-0)

Boise State is another team that I should quit doubting. I thought that Toledo could give them a challenge but the Broncos blew them out. QB Kellen Moore is incredible and rightfully is garnering some Heisman talk.

Prediction: Boise State 47, Tulsa 17

South Dakota (2-1) at #6 Wisconsin (3-0)

The goal for the Badgers is to stay healthy and be 100% for Nebraska coming to town next weekend.

Prediction: Wisconsin 55, South Dakota 13

#7 Oklahoma State (3-0, 0-0) at #8 Texas A&M (2-0, 0-0)

Big 12 or 10 or 9 fans or however many teams are left in this sinking conference would argue that this is the game of the week. They might be right as far as entertainment purposes but nationally I think way more people care about LSU/West Virginia. I have doubted some teams and they have proven me wrong. The Aggies are another team I doubt. I think they are good but Top 10 good? I'm not buying it. The main attraction is the Oklahoma State offense going against the Aggie defense. Texas A&M is giving up just 10 points a game while the Cowboys average an amazing 52 points a game. The Cowboys have top flight talent at QB, RB, and WR. Road games are tough but I think the Cowboys are finally ready to take that next step of moving from good to elite. A win at Kyle Stadium against the overrated 12th man would be a huge statement.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 35, Texas A&M 34

#9 Nebraska (3-0) at Wyoming (3-0)

The Huskers have been scoring at a blistering pace. Unfortunately, their defense has been reminding me of the defenses during the Bill Callahan era. The Huskers have lost their share of talent over the last few years but with the Pelini brothers coaching them up it was expected that the defense would remain strong. Hopefully they show improvement Saturday but they will be tested by Wyoming. They have two running backs, Ghaali Muhammad and Brandon Miller each averaging over 6 yards a carry. Their quarterback, Brett Smith, is a freshman so hopefully the Huskers can get some pressure on him and force him into mistakes. At this point, everyone knows what Nebraska is offensively. Martinez can run but not pass and the Huskers will live and die with the run. Nebraska can't be caught looking ahead to Wisconsin or they will be fighting for their lives. I have faith that Bo Pelini will make sure they are properly focused.

Prediction: Nebraska 42, Wyoming 24

#10 Oregon (2-1, 0-0) at Arizona (1-2, 0-1)

Things are falling apart fast for the Wildcats. Back to back weeks have seen them blown out by ranked foes. It get's no easier this week as the Ducks come calling. Oregon has blown away their last two opponents are their disappointing opening loss to LSU. LaMichael James has gotten back on track and is averaging almost 8 yards a carry. I think Arizona is tired of having their poo pushed in and will put up more of a fight on Saturday.

Prediction: Oregon 30, Arizona 23

Last Week: 9-2
Overall: 25-4

The Hail Mary - Week 2

2011-09-16T10:31:00.025-04:00

Week 1 was highlighted by offense and blowouts. Quarterbacks had huge games. Some were not so surprising, like Tom Brady, but others were shocking, such as Cam Newton's debut. If anything it seemed the lockout affected the defenses more than the offenses. Week 2 has some solid games but the one drawing the most attention is Mike Vick's return to Atlanta. This is Vick's second trip back to Atlanta, but his first as a starting quarterback. The game is pretty important for Atlanta, looking to avoid an 0-2 start.

Week 2 - Sunday, September 18

Oakland (1-0) at Buffalo (1-0), Buffalo favored by 4

Two weeks into the season and either Oakland or Buffalo is guaranteed to be undefeated. The Bills are getting some hype after their waxing of Kansas City at Arrowhead. I wasn't necessarily surprised the Bills won, but was shocked that it was by 34 points. Ryan Fitzgerald quietly was effective last season, and he might be carrying that effectiveness over to this year. The Raiders tried to lose to Denver, committing 15 penalties, but luckily for them the Broncos are so bad it didn't matter. The formula for success for the Raiders is simple. Darren McFadden has to be effective running the ball, because Jason Campbell and the receivers give them nothing, and the defense has to be the type of ball hawks they were Monday night. Oakland having to go to Buffalo for an early game seems like too much of a hurdle for the Raiders to overcome.

Prediction: Buffalo 28, Oakland 17

Kansas City (0-1) at Detroit (1-0), Detroit favored by 8

Wait, so not only might Buffalo be 2-0, but the Lions too!?! This is the most I think I have ever seen the Lions favored by in my life. It is with good reason though, as they were impressive on the road against Tampa. The Chiefs were expected to take a step back after their fluke fraud season last year, but based on they played in Week 1 they may finish 0-16. The Chiefs only hope is that Jamaal Charles can get going, as that is about the only thing they have going for them. I am actually picking the Lions to cover an 8 point spread, hell has frozen over.

Prediction: Detroit 27, Kansas City 13

Baltimore (1-0) at Tennessee (0-1), Baltimore favored by 6

Man, the Titans really suck. Losing to a sorry Jacksonville team, and one of your touchdowns was a complete fluke? Chris Johnson did next to nothing and obviously is rusty due to his lengthy holdout. The Ravens shocked the football world by their complete domination of Pittsburgh. Are the Steelers that bad, the Ravens that good, or is it just a week 1 aberration? I still don't think the Ravens are anything better than a 9-7 team. However, I may have underestimated just how awesome Ray Rice is. I expect Rice to have another big game this Sunday.

Prediction: Baltimore 28, Tennessee 14

Cleveland (0-1) at Indianapolis (0-1), Cleveland favored by 2 1/2

I know the Colts are without Peyton Manning. I also know that they were curb stomped by the Texans. It was pretty embarrassing but nowhere near the level of embarrassment the Browns should feel losing at home to the Bungles. No doubt Manning is incredibly vital to the Colts offense but is hard for me to believe that none of the Colts many skill players can only be effective with Manning under center. I think this line is ridiculous, and that the Colts feel a little better about themselves come Monday.

Prediction: Indianapolis 19, Cleveland 17

Tampa Bay (0-1) at Minnesota (0-1), Minnesota favored by 3

This is pretty much a pick em game in my view. The Shanahan's have to be feeling a little better after McNabb laid a stink bomb to start the season. He threw for just 35 yards. Yes, in the entire game, not just on a drive, not just on a play but in a game that he played all four quarters in. That is pathetic. Maybe he can double it and throw for 70 this weekend! The Vikings held their own against the Chargers as I expected, and I think home field is enough for them to get the win in this one.

Prediction: Minnesota 23, Tampa Bay 21

Chicago (1-0) at New Orleans (0-1), New Orleans favored by 7

Vegas obviously wasn't impressed by the Bears rout of the Falcons. The Saints have to be worried about their defense, which has been torched in the last two meaningful games they played in. The offense looked fantastic in the opener, and even without Marques Colston, shouldn't miss a beat. They do need to establish the run more, as Mark Ingram had a disappointing debut. The Saints spent a lot of money upgrading their defensive line. If that line can't get a push on the Bears sorry offensive line, it will begin to look like a wasted investment.

Prediction: New Orleans 28, Chicago 24

Jacksonville (1-0) at New York Jets (1-0), New York Jets favored by 9 1/2

I think this line is way too high. Jacksonville won in New York the last time they played there, and the Jets should be 0-1. They only reason they beat the Cowboys was because Tony Romo turned into a buffoon in the 4th quarter. I think Jacksonville's atrocious but the Jets start didn't inspire much confidence in me. Their game plan of having Sanchez throw and then supplement it with a little bit of running was odd to me. Mark Sanchez played ok, but I don't think he is ready to take that much control of a game. Jets will win, but the Jags will be competitive.

Prediction: New York Jets 20, Jacksonville 13

Seattle (0-1) at Pittsburgh (0-1), Pittsburgh favored by 14 1/2

It's the rematch of one of the worst Super Bowls ever played! The Steelers can't just win this game, they need to annihilate Seattle. If the Steelers struggle at home, then their fans should officially panic. Warren Sapp has declared the Steelers dead and said their defense is too old and slow now. Just 7 months ago that defense was good enough to get Pittsburgh to the Super Bowl, so I think Sapp is being his usual idiotic self. Its hard to play good defense when your offense turns the ball over a ridiculous 7 times. This line is too high for Pittsburgh to cover but they will still win comfortably.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Seattle 10

Arizona (1-0) at Washington (1-0), Washington favored by 4

Man has the talk changed about Rex Grossman. He plays one good game and now all the stories are, the Shanahan's have resuscitated Rex's career! The Skins were impressive in Week 1 and Grossman did play well, but let's slow down on the hyperbole. Grossman has a chance to have another good game, against a porous Cardinals secondary that tried to make Cam Newton a Hall of Famer in his first career start. Redskins RB Tim Hightower has a chance to earn some revenge on the team that felt casting him off for over the hill Vonnie Holliday was a good move. Hightower struggled against the Giants but I expect him to be more like the Hightower we saw in the preseason against Arizona. DeAngelo Hall will have his hands full with Larry Fitzgerald. Hakeem Nicks was having success getting open, so Fitzgerald could make a couple big plays. I was really happy with how the defense looked against New York, and with the Cardinals being so one dimensional the chance is there for another strong performance. This town could come unglued if the Skins start out 2-0.

Prediction: Washington 23, Arizona 20

Green Bay (1-0) at Carolina (0-1), Green Bay favored by 10

I think reality hits Cam Newton this weekend against the defending champs. I was just as impressed as everyone else by his debut but it may have been a bad thing for him. He has nowhere to go but down now and set the expectations way too high to start. Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers will have Newton under duress most of the game. The Packers offense will show the precision they showed in the opener, that makes the game look so easy for them. Packers in a rout.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Carolina 13

Dallas (0-1) at San Francisco (1-0), Dallas favored by 3

Remember when this game used to create buzz and was always the de facto Super Bowl? Now, not so much. That's what happens when instead of Troy Aikman vs. Steve Young, you have Tony Romo vs. Alex Smith. The Niners won like they were supposed to last weekend but Smith was his usual mediocre self and they were saved by Ted Ginn. The Cowboys looked great for three quarters until Romo experienced shrinkage in a big moment. The Niners will be game to keep this close for a little bit but the Cowboys are much more talented than them. Man, it hurts to say that.

Prediction: Dallas 31, San Francisco 21

Cincinnati (1-0) at Denver (0-1), Denver favored by 4 1/2

I thought the Bengals would be the last team to win a game this year but they got that out of the way quickly. Playing against the Broncos they have a fair chance at being 2-0. The natives are already restless with Kyle Orton. If he struggles against Cincy it could get ugly at Sports Authority Invesco Mile High Stadium. I am not sure if Andy Dalton is recovered and ready to play this game. I haven't heard anything about his status, likely because no one gives a crap. What the hell, I like the Bungles in a sorta upset.

Prediction: Cincinnati 13, Denver 10

Houston (1-0) at Miami (0-1), Houston favored by 3

The Dolphins did what they do best on Monday night, lose embarrassingly at home. The defense was supposed to be the one bright spot but it was actually the offense that had a nice accounting of itself. Everyone loves the Texans after they routed the Colts, but all it reminds me of is last season. That being said, Miami just can't seem to win at home and I don't expect that to change Sunday.

Prediction: Houston 26, Miami 18

San Diego (1-0) at New England (1-0), New England favored by 6 1/2

This is the second best game of the weekend. Tom Brady was amazing last Monday night and I think it is beyond a shadow of a doubt now that he is the best quarterback in football. The Patriots do need to be concerned about their defense, which didn't look any better than the average unit they were last season. If Chad Henne can throw for over 400 yards on them, Philip Rivers must be feeling tons of excitement about what he might be able to do. The Chargers special teams remains terrible and a coaching battle between Bill Belichick and Norv Turner is laughably one sided. The games between these teams are usually close, so I don't think the Patriots will cover the number.

Prediction: New England 30, San Diego 27

Philadelphia (1-0) at Atlanta (0-1), Philadelphia favored by 2 1/2

Some silly people thought that the Rams were going to upset the Dream Team. As I expected the Eagles made a statement and blew the Rams out of their building. What I didn't expect was the Falcons to get bent over by the Bears. I knew the Falcons had a shaky defense but their offense was atrocious, especially Matt Ryan. Mike Vick hopes he can have the kind of game he had two years ago in Atlanta. Despite being the third string quarterback he was able to score two touchdowns against the Falcons. Vick was as electrifying as ever running the ball against the Rams but just 14 of 32 passing. That needs to improve quickly. The Falcons are starting to get the stink to me of a team that won a lot of games one season, then has a precipitous fall the next. Expect lots of what's wrong with the Falcons stories after they start the year 0-2.

Prediction: Philadelphia 27, Atlanta 20

Monday, September 19

St. Louis (0-1) at New York Giants (0-1), New York Giants favored by 4 1/2

Usually the stinkers come later in the year for Monday Night Football since they don't have the option of flex scheduling. That's not the case this season, Week 2 and MNF has their first stinker! I know what Jaws is probably thinking and is liable to say on Monday, "shit"! The Rams have been hit by the injury bug already, as both Danny Amendola and Steven Jackson could miss a few weeks. Jackson is a beast but damn is he brittle. The Giants defense has been besieged by injuries and it showed in Week 1. The Rams are down some options on offense though so that should balance things out a bit. The Giants offense doesn't have injuries and needs to perform far better than they did in Week 1.

Prediction: New York Giants 24, St. Louis 13

Last Week Straight Up: 9-7
Overall Straight Up: 9-7

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-6-1
Overall Against the Spread: 9-6-1

Cram Session - Week 3

2011-09-14T18:10:00.011-04:00

On paper, this appears to be the most exciting weekend in college football so far. Plenty of good rivalry games and games featuring ranked teams playing one another. The biggest game of the weekend is #1 Oklahoma traveling to #5 Florida State. The Seminoles are looking to prove that they really deserve a Top 5 ranking. A win against Oklahoma would quiet the doubters that don't believe Florida State is really back.

Games That Matter to Me

#15 Michigan State (2-0) at Notre Dame (0-2)

As a fan I have seen my fair share of heartbreaking losses, but last Saturday might have been the worse. Notre Dame dominated Michigan on both sides of the ball for three quarters. Then the fourth quarter came, and the Irish players remembered that they are averse to success. They choked away the game, allowed Michigan QB Denard Robinson to successfully play 500 against them, and lost in the final seconds. Because of that, the Irish now stand at 0-2 and the season is already lost. They have to win this weekend at home against #15 Michigan State to avoid an 0-3 start. Last season, the Irish suffered an almost as heartbreaking defeat at Michigan State. The question is, can Brian Kelly keep the players heads up. Notre Dame has outplayed their two opponents but have killed themselves with turnovers. Ten turnovers in two games, including five in the red zone is not a formula for success. QB Tommy Rees appeared to be much more comfortable in the offense than Dayne Crist and is obviously the man that should lead the Irish. WR Michael Floyd continues to dominate and make opposing defenders look silly. The defense will have to slow down the Spartans passing game, led by Kirk Cousins. The Spartans have played no one of consequence, so its hard to get a true read on them. I think last season was a fluke for them, and even if they beat the Irish, I won't be convinced they are as good as their ranking would indicate. Right now, I have zero faith in the Irish winning a football game. I do believe they will find some nauseating, heartbreaking way to lose it though.

Prediction: Michigan State 24, Notre Dame 21

Washington (2-0) at #11 Nebraska (2-0)

The players and coaches can downplay it all they want but this is clearly a revenge game for the Huskers. They came out flat in the Holiday Bowl last December and were embarrassed by the Huskies, now they get a shot at revenge at home. It was just one year ago that Nebraska went to Washington and lambasted the Huskies. Washington still hasn't proven they can generate any offense on the Huskers defense. However, the Blackshirts looked very weak in the win last week against Fresno State. Jake Locker is gone so new quarterback Keith Price will see if he can do what Locker couldn't, have success against the Huskers defense. Playing Nebraska will be a step up for the sophomore, who so far has only faced Hawaii and Eastern Washington. For Nebraska, it would be nice to see the passing game get some rhythm so they aren't so reliant on the run. Through two games their leading receiver is Jamal Turner, who has just four catches. QB Taylor Martinez is completing just 48% of his passes and has 1 TD and 2 INTs. The Huskers won't be caught sleep walking their way through this one. I expect them to get their revenge, and I hope the defense steps up their game.

Prediction: Nebraska 41, Washington 27

Top 10 Thursday, September 15

#3 LSU (2-0, 0-0) at #25 Mississippi State (1-1, 0-1)

Very good Thursday night game that lost a bit of its luster with the Bulldogs loss at Auburn on Saturday. That being said, they still will be at home and the atmosphere for Thursday night games is always special. The best offensive player on the Bulldogs is senior RB Vick Ballard. He is averaging an astounding 9 yards a carry through two games. The LSU defense is one of the best in the country and Ballard is the key. If they slow Ballard, the Tigers will win, and probably pretty easily. However, this isn't an Oregon team finding out that the SEC style of play is nothing like their conference. Ballard has been through the battles in the SEC and I think he can be successful tonight. Jarrett Lee has done his job replacing Jordan Jefferson, but playing at home and neutral sites is different than going to Starkville. The timing is right, the Bulldogs have lost 11 straight to LSU, that ends tonight.

Prediction: Mississippi State 28, LSU 25

Friday, September 16

#4 Boise State (1-0) at Toledo (1-1)

This game became much more interesting after the scare Toledo put into Ohio State last weekend. Can the Rockets put together back to back games like that and give the Broncos a challenge? Kellen Moore is far better than the Buckeyes quarterback options and will present problems for Toledo that Ohio State couldn't. I think Toledo can keep this game close but once again will come up agonizingly short.

Prediction: Boise State 35, Toledo 27

Saturday, September 17

#1 Oklahoma (1-0) at #5 Florida State (2-0)

Both teams will be looking to make a statement. Choklahoma wants to avoid choking in a big spot and validate their preseason number one ranking. For Florida State, beating two cupcakes to start the season hasn't proven anything about where they stand. Last season, the Seminoles went to Oklahoma and were destroyed. I really don't think enough has changed in one season that Florida State is suddenly better than the Sooners. The Sooners have had two weeks to prepare for this game. I expect QB Landry Jones, RB Dominique Whaley, and WR Ryan Broyles will all do damage and prove that the Seminoles may be better, but aren't back.

Prediction: Oklahoma 33, Florida State 24

North Texas (0-2) at #2 Alabama (2-0)

Alabama will kill North Texas.

Prediction: Alabama 45, North Texas 10

#6 Stanford (2-0, 0-0) at Arizona (1-1, 0-0)

Stanford and Andrew Luck face their first challenge of the year as they open their conference season at Arizona. The Wildcats were run over by Oklahoma State last week so it remains to be seen how much of a challenge they really are for the Cardinal. Nick Foles has been very good through two games, throwing 6 TDs and no INTs. If he can keep that up against a Stanford defense college football fans everywhere would take notice. The Cardinal are allowing 8 points a game thus far.

Prediction: Stanford 40, Arizona 21

#7 Wisconsin (2-0) at Northern Illinois (1-1)

Wisconsin continues their march to their Big Ten opener against Nebraska. They get to destroy Northern Illinois this week.

Prediction: Wisconsin 47, Northern Illinois 17

#8 Oklahoma State (2-0) at Tulsa (1-1)

The Sooners already got their shots in at Tulsa, so now it is the Cowboys turn. Oklahoma State was at least kind enough to go to Tulsa to do the beating. The only way the Hurricanes keep this close is if the Cowboys are napping, and thinking about playing at Texas A&M next weekend. I doubt that will happen though. Expect more offensive domination from QB Brandon Weeden, and WR Justin Blackmon.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34, Tulsa 14

Idaho (1-1) at #9 Texas A&M (1-0)

The Aggies are being talked about more for which conference they will end up in then what they might do on the field this season. Idaho coming to College Station won't change that, but the focus will be back on the field next weekend for the visit from the Cowboys.

Prediction: Texas A&M 38, Idaho 10

Navy (2-0) at #10 South Carolina (2-0)

This game should be very good. Navy has proven that they aren't intimidated when they have to go on the road against conference powers. The passing game will take a back seat as both teams love to run the ball. The Gamecocks are led by Marcus Lattimore, who has 4 TDs and 288 yards rushing through the first two games. Navy leads the NCAA with 801 yards rushing. They have their typical dual threat at QB in Kriss Proctor. Proctor has thrown just 14 passes in the first two weeks, but has run for 199 yards. I expect this game to go right down to the wire, especially with Stephen Garcia likely to make some mistakes at quarterback. I am not bold enough to pick the upset, but it wouldn't shock me.

Prediction: South Carolina 28, Navy 24

Last Week: 8-0
Overall: 16-2

The Hail Mary - Week 1

2011-09-08T17:43:00.022-04:00

The NFL season got off to a blistering start last night. The Packers and Saints combined for 76 points and the game wasn't decided until the final play. Hopefully, that carries over to the rest of the games this weekend. There are some very intriguing ones, including the renewal of the Baltimore Ravens/Pittsburgh Steelers rivalry, the Cowboys taking on the Jets, and the Giants traveling to Washington to take on the Redskins for the 10th anniversary of 9/11. For my new readers, I pick the games against the spread and straight up.

Week 1 - Sunday, September 11

Atlanta at Chicago, Atlanta favored by 3

I expect both of these teams to regress from their high statures last season. That being said, I don't expect to see the Falcons make the precipitous fall that the Bears will. I expect Jay Cutler to be sacked just as bad or worse than he was last year, and I didn't think the Bears were all that good last season to begin with. The Falcons were a good team last season that I believe overachieved a bit. They have a high powered offense but the defense is weak and not championship caliber. The Falcons are better than the Bears and will show it at Soldier Field.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, Chicago 16

Cincinnati at Cleveland, Cleveland favored by 6 1/2

The winner of the most uninteresting game of the weekend goes to Cleveland/Cincinnati. The Browns could get off to a fast start due to an easy schedule while the Bungles could reach even lower depths than they have in the past, which is really saying something. This will be our first look at Andy Dalton, the pro, and also a look at what A.J. Green is capable of against NFL competition. Colt McCoy looked strong in the preseason for the Browns, and if he can carry that over to the regular season, people in Cleveland might have a reason not to be depressed anymore. At least until they remember they live in Cleveland.

Prediction: Cleveland 27, Cincinnati 13

Buffalo at Kansas City, Kansas City favored by 6

The Chiefs are another team I expect to see fall flat on their faces this season. Matt Cassel is already hurt, they lost one of their top receiving targets, TE Tony Moeaki for the season, and the schedule should be much harder this season. That being said, I am not down on them to the point that I would pick them to lose at home to the sad sack Bills.

Prediction: Kansas City 19, Buffalo 16

Philadelphia at St. Louis, Philadelphia favored by 5

The anticipated debut of the Dream Team. Some people have had the audacity to pick St. Louis in this game, but they are just haters. I expect a 2007 New England Patriots type debut for the 2011 Eagles. I don't think the Rams are bad or anything but I think the Eagles, my Super Bowl pick, will be very good.

Prediction: Philadelphia 28, St. Louis 14

Detroit at Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay favored by 2

Tampa Bay is looking for revenge after a heartbreaking home loss last season to the Lions that kept them out of the playoffs. Detroit is the sexy pick this season to be the surprise team that makes the playoffs. I certainly think they will be improved, but think 2012 is more likely to be the year they make the playoff leap. I am looking forward to watching the brick wall that will be Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. This game will come right down to the end, until the Bucs hit a game winning field goal in the final seconds.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, Detroit 23

Tennessee at Jacksonville, Jacksonville favored by 3

Chris Johnson is the only thing worth watching in this game. I guess the other interesting thing is to see how awful Luke McCown is, in replacing David Gerrard. With Peyton Manning being out for most, if not all of the season, these putrid teams actually have hope in the stinky AFC South.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 17

Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Baltimore favored by 2 1/2

This is a good rivalry, but it has been a little one sided as of late. The Steelers always beat the Ravens in the playoffs and when it matters most. I'm not very high on the Ravens this year. I think the defense is aging and not what it used to be, and I have never been sold on Joe Unibrow Flacco. The Steelers bring back most of their Super Bowl team from last season and will have QB Ben Roethlisberger right from the start. It will be a close game as it always is, with a familiar result, the Steelers winning.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 14

Indianapolis at Houston, Houston favored by 8 1/2

Colts fans had their fears realized yesterday when it was announced that Peyton Manning had another neck surgery, and will miss at the least 2 months, and most likely the season. I didn't have high hopes for the Colts this year even with Manning, but I still felt they could win this division. Kerry Collins takes the reigns now, and I don't think its impossible to imagine the Colts still winning the division, even with him under center. People love the Texans for some odd reason. They are becoming what the Cardinals were for years before they finally broke through. So maybe this is the year for the Texans. At the very least, they will start off 1-0.

Prediction: Houston 30, Indianapolis 24

Carolina at Arizona, Arizona favored by 7

The quarterbacks take center stage, as Cam Newton makes his NFL debut, and Kevin Kolb makes his Cardinals debut. The Cardinals will be the least worst team in the NFC West and that should be enough to earn them the division. I don't think Kolb is worth the money he received, but he is a huge upgrade over what Arizona had last season. Newton will have to take his lumps this year.

Prediction: Arizona 31, Carolina 17

Minnesota at San Diego, San Diego favored by 8 1/2

Vegas always loves the Chargers at home, as does the general public. No one seems to be giving the Vikings a chance in this game. I don't think Donovan McNabb is as terrible as he looked in Washington, and the Vikings still have the best running back in the game, Adrian Peterson. I think this could turn into a bit of a shootout, and will be closer than the experts think.

Prediction: San Diego 34, Minnesota 27

Seattle at San Francisco, San Francisco favored by 5 1/2

The Jim Harbaugh era takes on the Tavaris Jackson era. I expect the Harbaugh era to last much longer. Last season the Niners opened at Seattle and were embarrassed, so its time for some payback. I don't expect much from San Francisco this year. They went back to Alex Smith, who receives his 9,000th chance. It was painful watching the Green Bay Packers America's Game and seeing how badly Aaron Rodgers wanted to be a 49er. Hell, the Niners even had Mike McCarthy as their offensive coordinator at the time. The Niners revamped most of their defense, which had actually been a decent unit. The Seahawks are worse though, anytime you willingly turn to Jackson as your starting quarterback you probably need your head examined.

Prediction: San Francisco 17, Seattle 14

New York Giants at Washington, New York Giants favored by 3

Let the fun with Rex Grossman begin! The question is, how long will he last until the fans yearn for John Beck? Fans yearning for John Beck? That is how sad the quarterback situation has gotten in Washington. The Giants have made the Redskins their bitch for the last five years. But if they ever was a time for the Skins to finally beat them, it would be Sunday's game. The Giants have been decimated by injuries on their defense. They have lost countless cornerbacks, and now it appears Justin Tuck might miss this game. Still, I just can't pick the Skins to beat the Giants until they actually do it. I think Eli will have his typical game where he makes some mistakes but also has some wow plays. Brandon Jacobs has always tore apart the Skins, so I expect him and Bradshaw to have good games. I expect Washington to do their usual role of keeping the game close but then making some costly turnover when it counts.

Prediction: New York Giants 24, Washington 22

Dallas at New York Jets, New York Jets favored by 4 1/2

I think the Cowboys will have a four win swing this season and be back in the playoffs. They still have a ton of talent on offense, the question is how their defense responds to Rob Ryan. The Jets don't have a high powered offense, so if they are able to dictate the game, it could be a sign of another long season in Dallas. The atmosphere should be electric with the 10th anniversary of 9/11 in New York. This will be a good game, but I don't expect a high scoring affair. It will be interesting to see how Plaxico Burress does in his first real game back.

Prediction: New York Jets 17, Dallas 14

Monday, September 12

New England at Miami, New England favored by 7

New England has mostly dominated the Dolphins in Miami for the last few years, after struggling in Miami for most of the early 2000s. No one seems sure what to expect out of the Dolphins. They have a talented defense, but the offense, and specifically QB Chad Henne are big question marks. Chad Ochocinco makes his Patriots debut, as does Albert Haynesworth. If Haynesworth ends up having a big year in New England, Skins fans hate will grow even more for him. Another interesting thing to watch is if Reggie Bush really does become the every down back as has been hinted. I think the Dolphins keep this one interesting but I think there is little doubt the Patriots win.

Prediction: New England 27, Miami 21

Oakland at Denver, Denver favored by 3

I guess Vegas forgot about what the Raiders did to Denver at Denver last season. The Raiders not only owned the Broncos but the entire NFC West last year. I'm not sure why ESPN continually has dud matchups for the second games of their doubleheaders to open the season. I guess it isn't really their fault that most of the teams on the west coast suck. Denver won't cover, in fact they will lose, but it won't be embarrassing like last season.

Prediction: Oakland 18, Denver 15